Tag: Preview

Milano-Sanremo 2016 Preview

The 107th edition of Milano-Sanremo gets underway Saturday. 291 kilometers of racing through north-western Italy, the event is a classic in every sense of the word, but unique among the classics in its appeal to sprinters and hardmen alike.

The Route

This year’s Milano-Sanremo route sticks to the recent formula: the first 235km feature only one climb, the Passo del Turchino, and then comes a succession of small ascents sure to launch attacks. The two key climbs are the Cipressa, 5.6km with a 4.1% gradient (summitted just over 21km from the finish) and the subsequent Poggio, a little under 4km at a little under 4% (summitted a little over 5km from the finish).

The race concludes on the iconic Via Roma, with a long finishing straight that usually treats fans to a high-speed showdown.

The Contenders

The Poggio and Cipressa spring attacks every year, but neither climb is hard enough to really favor the escapees. It’s certainly a possibility that someone aggressive can jump clear here, but the bunch kick specialists seem more likely to thrive—in particular, those bunch kick specialists with the endurance to ride for six hours while keeping a sprint in the tank.

2015 winner John Degenkolb fits that bill, but injury has forced him to miss out on the race; he won’t be defending his crown Saturday, leaving the title open for the taking.

2014 winner Alexander Kristoff will be in attendance. He narrowly missed out on the win last year when he opened his sprint far too early, but still managed to come in second. A proven performer at this distance who has looked sharped so far in 2016, Kristoff will have the eyes of the whole peloton on him when the riders roll into Sanremo.

Peter Sagan has come close here in years past and seems like a lock to do so again this year, but he might not have the top-end speed to compete on this parcours. Plus, the distance may get to him—he still has yet to take a victory in a Monument Classic. For Sagan, it will be important to drop or get clear of the likes of Alexander Kristoff.

Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge found himself on the podium in 2015 and should have only gotten better since then. The 26-year-old has yet to take that big one-day win and he is probably just a tad behind Kristoff in the speed department, but he has looked very strong so far in 2016. Former winner Simon Gerrans should be a strong ally.

That trio looks to be a cut above the rest if this come downs to a sprint, but there are quite a few others who could be in the mix.

Fernando Gaviria is a hot name right now given his strong results so far this year and his great top-end speed, but it’s really, really hard to win Sanremo without having ever raced a big classic. If he’s not up for this, Etixx does have Tom Boonen on the squad. Nacer Bouhanni is another sprinter who can never been ignored, though this is a very difficult race that might be too much for the Frenchman who has never been a huge classics star.

Ben Swift, Elia Viviani, Arnaud Demare, Niccolo Bonifazio, and Giacomo Nizzolo are others who should be to hold their own in a sprint.

Fabian Cancellara will be among those hoping to deny the sprinters their shot at the win. He has won Milano-Sanremo in the past and proved his form in the Tirreno-Adriatico time trial. It won’t be easy for him to escape the bunch, but he’ll probably try.

Greg Van Avermaet is another rider who will probably need to break free from the peloton to make something happen here, but if his early season results are any indication, he has all the form in the world right now. He’s also got a lot of speed for a reduced sprint.

Edvald Boasson Hagen is yet another versatile guy who has looked strong this season, and he brings the complete package with his ability to both solo and sprint. Dimension Data teammate Mark Cavendish, a former winner here, has said that Boasson Hagen will be the one to watch.

Vincenzo Nibali will almost certainly make some kind of late attack in this race. His defending skills will give him an edge if he can escape the peloton on the Cipressa or the Poggio.

Tony Gallopin, Tim Wellens, Geraint Thomas, Zdenek Stybar, and Sep Vanmarcke are others who could try to take advantage of the late climbs to make something happen.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: Peter Sagan, Michael Matthews
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Greg Van Avermaet, Vincenzo Nibali, Fernando Gaviria, Nacer Bouhanni, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Mark Cavendish

Photo by Sergio (CC).

March 19, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Milano-Sanremo 2016

Episode 34: Milano-Sanremo 2016 Pre-race Show

The Recon Ride takes a look at what’s to come in Milano-Sanremo, the first Monument Classic of the year.

[powerpress]

Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano talk route, favorites, and big storylines ahead of “La Classicissima,” Milano-Sanremo—with an assist from Gregor Brown, expert on all things Italian cycling.

Photo by Daniel70mi Falciola (CC).

March 17, 2016
Tirreno-Adriatico 2016 Preview

Quite a collection talented riders is headed to Tirreno-Adriatico this week to hunt for results – and the race’s famed golden trident trophy – along the road from one side of Italy to the other. A balanced parcours offers something for everyone in the country’s first big stage race of the year.

The Route

Tirreno-Adriatico opens with a 22.7-kilometer team time trial. It’s long enough to make a difference, giving an advantage to the GC hopefuls with high-octane backing squads, but it’s not so long that it’s going to flat-out win someone the race on day one.

Stage 2 throws a few challenges at the riders at the end of a 207km day. There is a small categorized climb just before the finish that may open up a few gaps.

Stage 3 is a day for the sprinters. Stage 4 concludes with a flat stretch but a string of late climbs could inspire attacks, either from stagehunters or from aggressive GC types.

Stage 5 is the definitive queen stage, with five categorized climbs including a tough uphill finish of 13km at 6.6%.

Stage 6, the longest stage in the race, has some uncategorized ascents late on in the profile that could favor the more versatile riders in the peloton, but it’s hard to see it having any GC impact.

The race closes out with a 10km individual time trial in San Benedetto del Tronto. It’s a completely flat out-and-back run that should see some pretty high speeds.

The General Classification Contenders

Nairo Quintana won the 2015 edition of the race, but he won’t be defending his crown in 2016. However, with Alejandro Valverde leading the way, Movistar still has a great chance of coming away with a win. The Spaniard can do it all, and that’s a big plus on this varied parcours. Movistar’s great TTT will help.

Vincenzo Nibali makes the start in pursuit of a third career Tirreno title, and he too should appreciate the parcours. The queen stage involves plenty of descendning, which should allow the Italian to put his downhill abilities on display. Jakob Fuglsang gives Astana a strong Plan B.

Tejay van Garderen would probably have a hard time drawing up a more favorable parcours. BMC’s world-class TTT squad should set him up well from the get go, and the long queen stage finishing climb and stage 7 time trial will both give him a chance to put his own big engine on display. He looked strong in Andalucía last month and should be among the top favorites in Italy.

Rigoberto Urán will also like the style of climbs in this race and the closing TT, though the opening team time trial may hurt him given Cannondale’s struggle in the discipline. If he can limit his losses there, he’ll have a shot at the overall.

Joaquím Rodríguez should appreciate the plethora of opportunities to punch clear of the pack even if the chrono mileage doesn’t suit him. He has yet to deliver much this season but it’s not unusual for him to show up stronger than expected after a few quiet weeks riding tune-up races. Jurgen Van Den Broeck could be a nice alternative.

Bauke Mollema was runner-up in Tirreno in 2015 and looks to be in good form at the moment. He could be among the GC favorites trying to snipe a few seconds here and there on the intermediate stages.

Thibaut Pinot won’t be a fan of the opening TTT but he’s improved dramatically as a descender and so should be able to hold his own on the queen stag. He’s also capable of putting in a decent ITT, making him a real contender for the overall title.

Ag2r’s one-two punch of Domenico Pozzovivo and Jean-Christophe Peraud should be in the mix, as should Orica-GreenEdge’s duo of Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves. Sky brings a powerhouse trio of Michal Kwiatkowski, Vasil Kiryienka, and Wout Poels.

Diego Ulissi, Roman Kreuziger, Rafael Valls, and Rodolfo Torres are other potential protagonists in the General Classification.

The Stagehunters

Mark Cavendish looks like the fastest of the pure sprinters in attendance, although there are several big names that could challenge him in the bunch kicks. Caleb Ewan, Fernando Gaviria, Elia Viviani, Giacomo Nizzolo, and Sacha Modolo are the headliners there.

Peter Sagan should have a few opportunities of his own as well, as there are some lumpier days. Greg Van Avermaet could be in the mix as well—he actually beat Sagan in a sprint to take a stage here in 2015. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Ramunas Navardauskas, and Jens Debusschere are others worth keeping an eye on in the stagehunting game.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

Winner: Vincenzo Nibali
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Tejay van Garderen
Other Top Contenders: Rigoberto Urán, Joaquím Rodríguez, Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibaut Pinot, Bauke Mollema, Michal Kwiatkowski, Wout Poels

Photo: ANSA / PERI – ZENNARO.

March 9, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tirreno-Adriatico 2016

Episode 33: Tirreno-Adriatico 2016 Pre-race Show

The podcast takes a closer look at the third WorldTour race of the season, Italy’s Tirreno-Adriatico.

[powerpress]

Though some big names are in France for Paris-Nice, plenty of other stars are headed to Italy to kick off their European WorldTour campaigns at Tirreno-Adriatico. The Recon Ride previews the race route and the favorites, and chats with Sam Bennett, who will make the start hoping to nab a stage win in the sprints.

Photo by Roy Luck (CC).

March 6, 2016
Paris-Nice 2016 Preview

The 74th edition of Paris-Nice gets underway Saturday, which means that WorldTour racing has arrived in Europe. The startlist may have taken a slight hit in the last few years, but the race still draws plenty of talent—the sprinting field is particularly strong this year, and several top GC names are also in attendance to battle for the overall title in the “Race to the Sun.”

The Route

Paris-Nice runs for eight days, starting with a short, flat prologue in the Paris suburbs. The organizers have mixed things up with the inclusion of a few dirt road sections in the ensuing Stage 1. That could make for an interesting day of racing.

Stage 2 looks to be one for the sprinters, with Stage 3 injecting the first serious climbs into the race. A Cat. 2 finale is likely to break things up a bit on the overall leaderboard.

The sprinters will have another chance on Stage 4 before an intriguing Stage 5 that includes a partial trip up Mont Ventoux—though the visit to the iconic climb comes earlier on in the stage. The three Cat. 2 climbs that follow Ventoux could break things up further, but a flat run-in to the finish will likely keep the stage from being too decisive.

The GC is likely to be decided on Stage 6, which includes seven categorized climbs, all of them Cat. 2s or harder, with a Cat. 1 climb to the finish line.

If that hasn’t settled things, the race concludes with a lumpy stage 7, whose up-and-down profile involves six more categorized climbs, the last of which is Paris-Nice favorite Col d’Éze.

In general, it’s a route with plenty of challenges, but one that lacks either a long time trial or any particularly massive or viciously steep finishing climbs. Bonus seconds could play an important role in deciding the overall winner.

The General Classification Contenders

Richie Porte won the race last year (and in 2013) and he will look defend the title this year, riding for new team BMC. The route, however, is less Porte’s style, without a tough time trial to give him the advantage over his rivals. Furthermore, Porte might not be terribly focused on defending his Paris-Nice crown with later-season objectives on his mind—Porte was incredible in the one-week races last year, and yet all the buzz around his season focused on his inability to pull of a Grand Tour win. The Tour is likely occupying all of his focus right now.

Alberto Contador is another two-time winner of the race in attendance. He too might have preferred some changes to the route, but he’s dangerous on practically any terrain and will have plenty of opportunities to put in a characteristic Contador attack if he’s feeling up for it in March.

Romain Bardet looked strong last month in Oman, and should be on-point in Paris-Nice. He has a nice uphill kick, which should help him in the bonus seconds game, and riding on French rides his motivation should be high.

Sky’s Geraint Thomas will hope to follow up a strong 2015 performance wither another this year, and the profile should favor his riding style. Teammate Sergio Henao is another strong bet.

Rui Costa has come close here in the past and should love this year’s route. He thrives on profiles that present opportunities for escape attempts, and Paris-Nice 2016 has plenty of those. He also looks to be in good shape right about now. Louis Meintjes gives Lampre-Merida another good option.

Underrated on the short, steep stuff, Tom Dumoulin should do well on this parcours if he is motivated to fight for a result.

The same goes for Wilco Kelderman and Luis León Sánchez.

Lotto-Soudal’s Tony Gallopin and Tim Wellens, Simon Yates, Rafal Majka, Ion Izagirre, Alexis Vuilermoz, Cannondale’s duo of Andrew Talansky and Pierre Rolland, and the Katusha trio of Ilnur Zakarin, Rein Taaramäe, and Simon Spilak are others who could get involved in the GC battle.

The Stagehunters

A bevy of strong sprinters should provide action on the flatter early stages. Marcel Kittel, off to a strong start this season, will be hard to beat now that he appears to be back up to speed after a down year in 2015. Alexander Kristoff, also very strong right now, will hope to best Kittel in the bunch kicks, as will André Greipel, 33 but still showing plenty of ability in the sprints.

Michael Matthews, Wouter Wippert, Arnaud Démare, Nacer Bouhanni, Juan José Lobato, and Ben Swift are others to watch in the sprint finishes.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

GC Winner: Romain Bardet
Podium: Alberto Contador, Rui Costa
Other Top Contenders: Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, Tony Gallopin, Simon Yates, Tom Dumoulin, Pierre Rolland

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Kat Rietberg (CC).

March 6, 2016
Tour Down Under 2016 Preview

The 2016 WorldTour kicks off this week in South Australia at the Tour Down Under. The race has delivered several hotly contested GC battles over the past few years (the last two editions were decided by two seconds or less) and a mostly familiar parcours and list of contenders should set up more of the same this year.

The Route

This year’s TDU is returning to several “traditional” — insofar as that word can be used to describe a race that has been around for 20 years — Tour Down Under spots, but the opening day covers new ground in the form of a sprinter’s stage to the town of Lyndoch.

Stage 2 will take the peloton on undulating roads from Unley to Stirling, where a moderately uphill finish could see the GC stars fighting for bonus seconds. The finish at Stirling played a key role in Simon Gerrans’s 2014 victory; nabbing runner-up honors on the day earned him a few bonus seconds, which proved to be just enough for a one-second GC victory when all was said and done.

Stage 3 sees the return of Corkscrew Hill after its absence from the race in 2015. The short but tough climb is followed by a descent into the finish line, which should set up some exciting racing.

Stage 4 looks to be a day for the sprinters, though a few bumps near the finish line could make things interesting.

A double ascent of Old Willunga hill awaits the peloton on Stage 5. It’s only three kilometers in length, but an average gradient over 7% makes gaps inevitable. It’s the last chance for the GC hopefuls to make their mark before a flat sixth and final stage in Adelaide.

The General Classification Contenders

Rohan Dennis took the surprise win last year in a tight battle against Richie Porte. This year, Porte joins Dennis at BMC, giving the red and black squad a formidable duo. It’s hard to say who will have the best shot this year—Porte always does well in this race even if he hasn’t won before, but he’s also going to be gunning for a Tour de France victory in 2016 and July is a long way away. Dennis seems more likely to have this race as a season target. In any case, both will be dangerous on home turf.

But three-time winner Simon Gerrans may be even more dangerous. He’s not the strongest pure climber on the startlist but the short, punchy stuff at the TDU is his bread and butter. He’s also an excellent finisher. If he’s in shape after a tough, injury-riddled 2015, Gerrans will be hard to beat, especially with the likes of Michael Albasini and Daryl Impey lending a hand.

Sky’s duo of Sergio Henao and Geraint Thomas packs a punch. Thomas was third overall in 2013, and is great on this sort of terrain. Henao doesn’t have much of a track record Down Under, but he’s an explosive climber who could surprise people in the fight for bonus seconds. As always, Sky can’t be overlooked.

Lampre-Merida also brings a nice one-two punch, with former podium finisher Diego Ulissi (third overall in 2014, when he also won a stage) and new signee Louis Meintjes. Ulissi has the perfect skillset to contend in this race, with an excellent burst of speed on the short uphill drags. Meintjes will be a fine alternative, perhaps on better form than many in attendance with the South African national championships around the corner.

Rubén Fernández was fifth in 2014 and leads a strong Movistar squad. He’s an exciting young talent with another year of experience under his belt and should be primed to take advantage of a rare chance to ride for himself at the WorldTour level. Katusha’s Rein Taaramae starred in several one-week races last year with Astana and will be keen to show off his talent for his new team. He’s smart racer who excels on a hilly parcours. Rafael Valls is another rider who will be looking to get his year with a new team (Lotto-Soudal) off to a good start.

Former winner Cam Meyer and his Dimension Data teammate Nathan Haas and climbing specialist Domenico Pozzovivo of Ag2r-La Mondiale are others to watch. So are Ryder Hesjedal, Julián Arredondo, Luis León Sánchez, Patrick Bevin, Jarlinson Pantano, Cyril Gautier, and Moreno Moser.

The Stagehunters

Australia’s Caleb Ewan will hope to thrill the home crowd on the flat stages, and I wouldn’t bet against him to pick up at least one stage for Orica-GreenEdge. His main rivals in the sprints will be Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, Cannondale’s Wouter Wippert, Movistar’s Juan Jose Lobato, and IAM’s underrated Matteo Pelucchi.

The always-aggressive Jack Bobridge warrants a special mention as a breakaway specialist worth keeping an eye on—now sporting a green and gold jersey after a brilliant solo ride at the Aussie National Championships last week, Bobridge will almost certainly be on the lookout for opportunities to get clear of the pack and do his own thing up the road, just as he did in 2015 when he took the opening stage of the race.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Simon Gerrans
Podium: Rohan Dennis, Richie Porte
Other Top Contenders: Diego Ulissi, Sergio Henao, Geraint Thomas, Rubén Fernández, Rein Taaramae, Rafael Valls, Julián Arredondo

Be sure to catch the latest Recon Ride for more pre-race thoughts on the 2016 Tour Down Under!

Photo by Brian Townsley (CC).

January 18, 2016