Tag: Preview

Tour de France 2015: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Martin – 167km

The Tour’s first rest day gave the peloton an opportunity to get some much-needed time off (and it gave the Recon Ride time to record the second of three Tour de France podcast episodes, which includes plenty of race analysis worth listening to!), but the mountains of Stage 10, the first real climbs of the race, will be a rude awakening for the bunch.

The trip from Tarbes to La Pierre-Saint-Martin in the Pyrenees will be a relatively short one at 167 total kilometers. The first 140 of those kilometers won’t offer much in the way of challenging topography—three Cat. 4 climbs dot the profile along the way from the start of the stage to the foot of the final climb.

That final climb will be the hardest uphill test so far in this Tour de France. La Pierre-Saint-Martin is a 15.3-kilometer ascent at an average gradient of 7.4%. The most difficult section comes about half-way through, a 4km stretch at over 9%. Then things ease off a bit, before another quick steep section near the summit, where things even out again close to the line.

The La Pierre-Saint-Martin finale of Stage 10 will likely be the first real GC showdown of the 2015 Tour.

With two more tough mountain days to follow, Stage 10 could have some riders planning to take things easy. Expect the early breakaway to open up a big advantage over the first hundred kilometers. Plus, July 14th is Bastille Day—the many French riders in the peloton will be more motivated than ever to get some TV time at the head of the race, and it could be a crowded fight to be in the day’s big move. On the other hand, the bunch will probably amp up the pace on the flat stretch that leads into the foot of the last climb, and then the challenging finale will likely see any riders up the road losing a lot of time to a chasing pack. In short, the breakaway has a shot here, but it will be a challenge holding off the peloton.

The difficulty of this climb to the finish will likely bring out the top climbers in the race. Chris Froome, enjoying the GC lead at the moment, certainly fits that description. Froome built his 2013 victory on a dominant early-stage performance, and could be looking to do the same here. His impressive team should put him into a good position to strike in the finale, if he is so inclined—he does already have the yellow jersey though, and that could inspire him to be a bit more conservative, allowing the others to do the attacking.

Nairo Quintana has not been at his best so far in the Tour, but he should be starting to come good at this point in the race, especially after a rest day. Almost 2 minutes down on GC, Quintana may be given a bit of breathing room by the other favorites if he gets up the road—and even if his GC rivals aren’t inclined to let him up the road, it may not make much of a difference to one of the world’s best climbers. Quintana’s teammate Alejandro Valverde is also an obvious candidate to make something happen on Stage 10.

Alberto Contador’s ability to hang with the top climbers in his race after a tough Giro has been a major question mark so far. After Stage 10, we’ll have some answers. Based on what he’s shown up to this point, I’m expecting Contador to be able be in the mix, but would be surprised if he’s among the very top finishers on the stage. This is even truer for Vincenzo Nibali who struggled on Stage 8.

Joaquim Rodríguez is in excellent form at the moment. He might be looking to launch a move on the steeper sections of the final climb. Alternatively, if he’s able to stay at the front of the race, he’ll be a favorite in a potential sprint to the line at the top of the climb.

Tejay van Garderen was one of the few riders in Chris Froome’s stratosphere in the Dauphiné. He’s climbing better than ever this season, and has a strong support squad around him. If this comes down to a GC battle on the slopes of the final climb, expect van Garderen to be in the mix. Unfortunately for van Garderen, Froome is eyeing him closely given his current position on GC, and that will make it hard for him to get clear in the finale.

Thibaut Pinot will be a rider to watch on France’s National Holiday. He’s no longer much of a GC threat, but the form has certainly been there this year—that makes him a dangerous rider who could try to go for a long one. Compatriots Romain Bardet and Warren Barguil could also look for opportunities to get clear as well.

Alexis Vuillermoz has put in some big rides on tough mountain stages recently and could be in the mix either with an early attack or a late one. Pierre Rolland has not looked his usual self so far in the Tour, but he could bounce back in a breakaway here. Ryder Hesjedal, Julian Arredondo, Adam Yates, Louis Meintjes, and Rafal Majka are other riders to keep an eye on in a potential long-range move scenario.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Thibaut Pinot

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 10.

-Dane Cash

July 13, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour de France 2015 Show, Part II

Episode 18: Tour de France 2015 Show, Part II
In the second of three Tour de France podcast episodes, the Recon Ride dives into the action of cycling’s biggest race.
[powerpress]

Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a look at the Tour de France narrative so far, and preview the challenging days of racing just around the corner.

Photo by Victor van Werkhooven (CC).

July 12, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9 (TTT): Vannes › Plumelec – 28km

Alexis Vuillermoz’s hilltop victory on Stage 8 heralded a stretch of important days for the GC riders at the 2015 Tour de France. Next up: a 28km team time trial.

The road from Vannes to Plumelec is quite an interesting one as team time trial courses go, with three uncategorized (but still significant) climbs in the profile. The last of them has a 6% gradient for nearly 2km. Uphill finishes are uncommon for team time trials, so it’s going to be interesting to see how the teams handle the intriguing route, especially after a brutal first week that threw bad weather, rough terrain, and harsh climbs at the peloton.

Still, tired as the riders are, the flat and downhill stretches on this course are likely to be taken quite fast, as there aren’t many twists and turns to slow down the teams on their way.

BMC is the heavy favorite to win this stage. They are the reigning world champions in the discipline, with four of those six worlds-winning riders on the BMC roster at the Tour. The rolling parcours should not trouble them too much, as most of the riders are capable climbers as well. With the yellow jersey well within Tejay van Garderen’s grasp, motivation will be high for BMC, and they’ll also have the advantage of a late start thanks his current third-place position on the GC leaderboard.

It would be a surprise for anyone else to win this stage, but Team Sky has a shot. The black and blue squad was less-than-stellar in the team time trial at the recent Critérium du Dauphiné, but the stakes are much higher here (and Sky is more motivated to succeed on the sport’s biggest stage), and the riders making up the squad certainly don’t lack for chrono talent. The parcours should suit them well, as Sky is packing probably the best lineup of climbing ability in the Tour de France.

Movistar also has a chance at victory, with Adriano Malori and Alex Dowsett leading the team and plenty of other time trial talents on the squad as well. Alejandro Valverde may be known for his explosive climbing legs but he’s no slouch against the clock, and even Nairo Quintana can put in a good TT when there are hills involved.

Astana is the third team that I see having a chance at besting top favorite BMC. A similar lineup of Astana riders went second to BMC in the team time trial at the Dauphiné, and the importance of this race should have them motivated to ride at a very high level.

Etixx-Quick-Step, lacking Tony Martin, will have a much harder time vying for the win here than they would have with him leading the way—that said, don’t be surprised if they still put in a good ride. There is still some TT-ing talent on the roster. Tinkoff-Saxo has put in a few strong TTTs so far this year but they are lacking some of their stronger riders against the clock for this test. Katusha is in the same boat, but in a much more extreme fashion—Joaquim Rodríguez could lose a big chunk of time on this stage, as Katusha, despite delivering a few impressive team time trial successes this season, is down in numbers, and they left most of their strong TT talents at home anyway.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. BMC | 2. Sky | 3. Movistar

With a rest day on tap following Stage 9, the next stage preview will be up on Monday—in the meantime, be sure to check out the Recon Ride podcast, which will publish a new episode previewing the next week of racing not long after Sunday’s TTT!

-Dane Cash

July 11, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 8 Preview

On the heels of Mark Cavendish’s big sprint victory on Stage 7, the Tour de France heads into a stretch of more GC-oriented days, starting with the 181.5-kilometer Stage 8. It is another day that could come down to a showdown near the finish, but a steep climb to the line will bring a different set of riders to the fore.

The action kicks off in Rennes, Brittany. The first half of the stage is mostly flat, with the first of two categorized climbs finally appearing around the midway point of the action. It’s only a Cat. 4, and not likely to see much of a shakeup. That climb is followed by a descent and then a few gentle ups and downs, which roll all the way to the finish, where things will get interesting.

Stage 8 finishes atop the Mûr-de-Bretagne climb, 2 kilometers in length with a challenging average gradient of 6.9%—but the average gradient doesn’t tell the full story. The first kilometer of the ascent has sections in the double digits, and averages just under 10%. After this steep opener, things ease off in the second half of the climb, with the gradient gradually decreasing into the final 500 meters, which angle upward at only 2.4%.

The steep incline of the Mûr-de-Bretagne will make for a thrilling, through hard to predict, Stage 8 finale.

The vicious gradients that open the Mûr-de-Bretagne will keep the traditional sprinters from contending for the stage victory. That will, in turn, likely lead to a less organized chase in the bunch, which could help out any breakaway riders who manage to get up the road. What’s more, the upcoming team time trial will probably have the GC teams inclined to take this stage easy, rather than putting the pressure on all day. There are bonus seconds on offer at the line, and there are plenty of strong puncheurs in this race who will have a great chance at this finish if their teams keep the stage under control, but the early break does have a very real chance at going the distance on this stage—it seems to be about a 50/50 proposition to me. As such, no rider should be seen as “the favorite” for the stage, though there are plenty of riders who will be favored if they are in the lead group inside the final 10 kilometers: the battle for stage honors, whether that battle is being fought within a small group of breakers or the larger bunch, will likely come down to the final climb, which will suit riders that have some combination of strong climbing legs and a fast finish.

If the pack is able to reel in the early move, Joaquim Rodríguez, who won on the Mur de Huy a few days ago, will like the look of this one. He has flashed strong form in this Tour, and he has both the climbing prowess to launch a move early on this climb, and the finishing kick to outsprint a small group around him if he nears the finish line with company. Having the also explosive Giampaolo Caruso gives Katusha options.

At his best, Alejandro Valverde would love this profile, but form has been a question mark for Valverde so far in this Tour de France. On the Mur de Huy, where he won earlier this season in La Flèche Wallonne, he was unable to muster even a Top 10. This is another opportunity for him to use a skillset tailormade for this sort of finale, but his inability to make much an impact on this Tour so far can’t be ignored on a stage where he’d otherwise probably rank as my top favorite. Valverde’s teammate Nairo Quintana will be a rider to watch as well with this gradient—the diminutive Colombian doesn’t have Valverde’s top speed but few riders are as dangerous on gradients in the double digits. With a likelihood of gaps in this finale, Quintana will be locked in and should be in the mix at the front of the pack.

Dan Martin showed great form on Stage 3 on his way to 4th place, a result that would have been better if he hadn’t been way behind the head of the race before starting his charge through the ranks of riders struggling to make it to the top of the Mur. The extreme gradients on the lower slopes of that climb may have hindered Martin, who is very explosive but has never favored the double-digit slopes. The Mûr-de-Bretagne will be another great opportunity for him if this does come down to a group finish, especially with more space between the 10% gradient and the finish line in which Martin can make up ground he loses to the more effective climbers.

Chris Froome doesn’t have the Ardennes track record of Purito, Valverde, or Martin, but he’s an elite climber with an elite team around him that is fully dedicated to putting him into the perfect position for the uphill finishes. He was very strong on the Mur de Huy, and if this comes down to the GC men, I’d bet he’ll be right up there again here on Stage 8, with bonus seconds on the line. GC rival Vincenzo Nibali was not all that far behind, rolling across the line in 7th on Stage 3. Already down more than a minute on Froome, Nibali could try to get clear on the climb to earn a few seconds back on GC.

Peter Sagan won’t be able to match the GC favorites on the high gradients, but could hang on for the easier final kilometer if no one is too aggressive early on. The main factor playing against Sagan is the fact that the team may have him on domestique duty to help Alberto Contador, who is also a danger with this sort of gradient so close to the line.

A kilometer at over 9% might just be too much to ask of John Degenkolb, but he will have a shot at stage honors here if the pack can reel in the early breakaway. Rui Costa has been quiet so far in this Tour but should like this finish, as should another fast-finishing fringe GC contender, Bauke Mollema. Warren Barguil, a more-explosive-than-many-realize Tejay van Garderen, Robert Gesink, AG2R’s Romain Bardet and a surprising Alexis Vuillermoz, and Rigoberto Urán are others who could thrive in this finale if things come together before the line.

Tony Gallopin has the versatility to challenge for victory here in a variety of scenarios. He’s deadly in a long-range move, and capable in a reduced sprint as well. With the ability to weigh his options and determine his strategy out on the road, Gallopin has a great chance here. Teammate Tim Wellens is another rider to watch—he’s a smart attacker who can be very dangerous in a breakaway. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Michal Kwiatkowski, Zdenek Stybar, Julian Arredondo, and Simon Yates are just a few of the other riders who can threaten for stage success either from the breakaway or from the bunch.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodríguez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Tony Gallopin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 8. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 10, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Livarot › Fougères – 190.5km

Zdenek Stybar made the most of a small gap earned on a late climb to come away with a stage victory on Stage 6, denying a charging pack of chasers on his tail. Many of those same chasers, along with a number of the heavier quick men they left behind on the final ascent, will be hopeful for another chance at glory on Stage 7. The 190.5-kilometer road from Livarot to Fougères includes just one categorized climb, a Cat. 4 in the first 15 kilometers. After that, it’s gentle rollers and stretches of flat all the way to the finish.

There are a few twists and turns and roundabouts inside the last 10 kilometers, which lead into a finishing straight that angles slightly uphill in the final few hundred meters. With several GC-oriented days (in the form of a few climber-friendly stages with a team time trial squeezed in among them) just around the corner at the Tour de France, Stage 7 will be a prime opportunity for the sprinters to fight for a victory before their aspirations take a backseat for a while to the hopes of the yellow jersey contenders.

Coming into the Tour, Mark Cavendish looked to be the strongest sprinter in the race, but he’s been beaten twice now by André Greipel, making the pecking order of fast-finishing elite in this race a bit less clear. In both of Greipel’s wins, though, the leadout did not go according to plan for Cavendish, leaving the Manx sprinter in the wind for far too long—that makes it difficult to draw concrete conclusions about this matchup in terms of pure speed. On the other hand, Greipel’s acceleration on Stage 5 was quite an impressive sight by any measurement, and the way he blew past Cavendish in the final few hundred meters makes it hard to ignore just how strong he is right now.

In short, I see this as pretty close to a dead heat. If I had to deem one the favorite, I’d still name Cavendish the rider to beat. QuickStep has, amazingly, won two stages and taken the yellow jersey in the first week of the Tour de France all without a Cavendish victory. If they can finally muster all their talents toward setting their sprinter up for a high-speed finish, he’ll be hard to beat. If not, Greipel has shown that he’s quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunity.

In terms of racking up near misses at stages that seem to suit him perfectly, Peter Sagan has picked up in this Tour de France right where he left off in the 2014 edition of the race. He’ll have another chance here, and in fact, I think he has a better shot that the profile might suggest. With a slight incline at the very end of the day, a few late roundabouts that favor his strong positioning skills, and the terrific form he’s shown in the sprints these past few days, he should be in the mix for the win even against the likes of Cavendish and Greipel.

John Degenkolb would probably prefer a more challenging approach to the line but he brings a lot of speed to the table in any scenario and should be able to fight for the win. Like Sagan, he’s had multiple near-victories, and is extremely motivated to finally take that elusive victory. Alexander Kristoff has been a bit slow to start in this Tour but he was in the mix on Stage 5 and this stage suits him well. Arnaud Démare, Greg Van Avermaet, Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, Davide Cimolai, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others who should have a shot here.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 7. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 9, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Abbeville › Le Havre – 191.5km

With André Greipel’s second 2015 Tour win now in the books, the peloton is set to take on a 191.5-kilometer journey along the coast from Abbeville to Le Havre on Stage 6. The profile should set up an interesting contest.

There are only three categorized climbs on the road from start to finish, all of them Cat. 4s, and none of them inside the final 25km—but this is a rolling parcours throughout that could make things difficult to control. The finish is the most intriguing part of the stage. Inside the final two kilometers the road kicks upward on the Côte d’Ingouville, 850 meters at 7%, before mostly flattening out for the final half-kilometer or so. It’s not a categorized challenge, but it’s steep enough to put the heavier sprinters at a big positioning disadvantage before the last few hundred meters, and that’s assuming a large group comes to the finish in the first place.

A strong breakaway could have a chance on this profile, especially given the fact that some of the punchier favorites who could thrive in the finale ride for teams with GC interests, teams that might be less interested in wasting energy giving chase to a group up the road. However, with bonus seconds on offer at the line and a relative dearth of stages with opportunities for the less Alpine-inclined in this Tour de France, there should be decent motivation within the pack to keep this together at least into the final few kilometers, from which point it will be anyone’s game.

If he’s well-positioned coming into the final few kilometers, Peter Sagan should be able to handle the late climb and thrive in a somewhat reduced kick. He’s nearly won two sprint stages against the very fastest riders in this Tour de France already; with a bit of help from gravity on the uphill drag near the line on Stage 6, he’ll be very hard to beat. His biggest challenge, as it often is, will probably be other aggressive types trying to steal a march from the peloton a bit further out than the finishing straight—with Contador’s GC aspirations as Tinkoff-Saxo’s primary focus in the race, the team may not be inclined to put in the effort to control the race in the finale. Sagan will need to be alert here.

Lotto Soudal has had a great Tour so far and will have another opportunity for success on Stage 6. André Greipel is obviously on blazing form, having already nabbed two victories in this race. But with the late climb, Tony Gallopin may be the team’s best option here. Having landed an impressive 5th place on the Stage 3 Mur de Huy finish, ahead of some very strong climbers, he has the right mix of uphill ability and explosiveness to be in the mix, especially if there is action in the last few kilometers. This finale suits him very well.

Greg Van Avermaet should appreciate this opportunity to pick up an elusive Tour stage victory. The climb should be just hard enough to jettison some of the heavier types while still allowing Van Avermaet to survive and potentially jump clear. The Belgian is on excellent form right now.

John Degenkolb tends to put in good performances on stages with slightly uphill finishes, but I’m not sure how well he will handle the 7% gradient. That’s a bit steeper than he might like, and with so many strong puncheurs on the startlist, he will have his work cut out for him holding on if some of the better climbers put the pressure on. If he can hold a strong position in the finale, he’ll be deadly, but it won’t be easy.

Alejandro Valverde, on the other hand, would probably prefer a slightly more difficult finale, but he’s a danger regardless. He’s been particularly effective this season in reduced sprints this season, and the bonus seconds on offer on this stage should be great motivation to put in some effort here, though his form is a bit of a question mark after an underwhelming visit to the Mur de Huy on Stage 3. A stronger performance there might have me more confident in his chances here.

An in-form Edvald Boasson Hagen should like the look of this stage. It’s been a long time since he took a big victory but a good result should be well within his reach—he outgunned the likes of Degenkolb and several other strong sprinting favorites on Stage 5 and Stage 6 suits him even better. Michal Kwiatkowski has been a bit underwhelming so far in this Tour de France, but the Amstel Gold Race winner is always a danger on this sort of profile and will be a rider to keep an eye on—he knows how to get clear of a bunch when the opportunity presents itself, and he’s also got a great turn of speed if things stay relatively compact over the final climb. His EQS teammates Matteo Trentin and the surprisingly fast Rigoberto Urán may be dangerous in the finale as well. Mark Cavendish may find the late climb too steep, but if the peloton plays it conservatively, he might have a shot of holding on. Trek teammates Julian Arredondo and Bauke Mollema both rate as strong outsiders for me—they’re known for their climbing prowess but both pack a punch in a finishing kick like this. Sep Vanmarcke, Zdenek Stybar, Bryan Coquard, Joaquim Rodríguez, the Cannondale duo of Dan Martin and Ramunas Navardauskas, and the Lampre-Merida duo of Davide Cimolai and Rui Costa are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Tony Gallopin | 3. Greg Van Avermaet

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race. Check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 6. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 8, 2015