Tag: Preview

Amstel Gold Race 2015 Preview

The Classics calendar leaves the rough cobblestones of Flanders and northern France behind for the short, steep bergs of the Netherlands Sunday at the Amstel Gold Race. The uphill chargers will face off on a bumpy parcours in the Limburg province, the first of three puncheur-friendly WorldTour races often called the “Ardennes Classics” (though the Amstel Gold Race doesn’t actually go through the Ardennes forest.

The Route

Even at a long 251 kilometers in full, with 34 classified climbs from start to finish, the Amstel Gold Race is a roller-coaster ride throughout. The trip from Maastricht to Berg en Terblijt is one of constant ups and downs, with plenty of road furniture along the way to boot.

On paper, the route and profile look perfect for aggressive racing, and recent editions have seen successful long-range attackers. But historically, this race has quite often been all about the very last uphill test, the Cauberg. It’s a little over a kilometer long at just under a 5% average gradient, but with some seriously steep stuff in the middle. From the top of the final ascent (the peloton will visit the iconic climb multiple times on the day) of the Cauberg, it’s still almost two kilometers to the line, a relatively recent route alteration that requires those who get away on the last slope to maintain their gap over a flat stretch before the finish.

The Contenders

Whether this race is won with a long-range attack, a charge up the Cauberg, or a finishing sprint in the final drag, explosiveness is the critical trait for any would-be contender in the Amstel Gold Race: explosiveness to get clear in a breakaway attempt, to launch up the last climb, or to win a bunch kick in the finishing straight. The Amstel Gold Race is a puncheur’s playground.

Philippe Gilbert is the peloton’s most successful active Amstel Gold Racer, and generally, the sport’s dominant figure on the Cauberg climb. He’s won this race three times, and won his rainbow jersey atop the Cauberg in 2012. This race suits him down to the ground, and his 3rd place in the recent Brabantse Pijl suggests he’s in good shape. Still, he’s not the Philippe Gilbert he once was, and all eyes will be on him in the last few kilometers. He won’t be able to slip away. As strong as he is here, this startlist is packed with hungry uphill specialists, it won’t be easy for him to get clear even on his favored terrain, and a few of the other likely contenders could probably beat him in a sprint if he can’t drop them. He’s the oddsmakers’ favorite for obvious reasons, but winning a force Amstel will be a real challenge. Regardless, having Samuel Sanchez, Greg Van Avermaet, and Ben Hermans around to launch attacks does give BMC plenty of cards to play.

Alejandro Valverde has never won here, but his uphill burst is one of the best in cycling, and his ability to win a sprint even in a flat finish makes him particularly dangerous. In blazing form after a three-stage-win Catalunya, Valverde has a terrific chance of winning this race.

Michal Kwiatkowski, 5th last year, also has a strong uphill burst and an excellent finishing kick. One advantage he may have even over the versatile Alejandro Valverde in this finale is a talent for late solo moves. He earned his Worlds title with a brilliant late attack in Ponferrada, and with the finish line still over a kilometer from the top of the Cauberg, his time trialing skills will come in very handy.

Simon Gerrans is perfectly suited to this parcours, but he is probably still a bit lacking in the form department after an early season injury. Orica-GreenEdge will likely put their faith in Michael Matthews instead, who just landed his second straight 2nd-place result in Brabantse Pijl. If the punchier riders can’t get separation, Matthews has a great chance of winning this race in a sprint.

Joaquim Rodríguez has the punch to thrive on the Cauberg, and showed incredible form in Pais Vasco. The flat stretch that follows from the top of the final climb is not great for his skillset but he may be strong enough to open up a winning gap on the uphill drag. Teammate Daniel Moreno also has plenty of punch, and a decent sprint as well.

Sergio Henao is another talented climber with a fair bit of punch, and he showed strong form in the Basque Country. Daniel Martin would probably fare better with a purely uphill finish too, but he does have a nice finishing kick if he manages to get into a small group in the finale—Tom-Jelte Slagter is another option for Cannondale.

With an impressive trio of Jelle Vandendert (twice 2nd here), Tony Gallopin, and Tim Wellens, Lotto Soudal will almost certainly be in the mix for the win. Wellens is a great candidate to go from afar. Giant-Alpecin’s Tom Dumoulin is another great long-range candidate. His elite soloing ability combined with an ever-improving finishing kick make him a terrific outsider for victory.

Lampre’s Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi, Wanty-Groupe Gobert’s Enrico Gasparotto, Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger, Trek’s dangerous trio of Bauke Mollema, Julián Arredondo, and Fabio Felline, CCC’s Davide Rebellin, and AG2R’s Carlos Betancur and Jan Bakelants are others hoping to get into the mix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Michal Kwiatkowski
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Philippe Gilbert
Other Top Contenders: Michael Matthews, Joaquim Rodriguez, Jelle Vanendert, Tim Wellens, Daniel Moreno, Sergio Henao, Tom Dumoulin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis.

-Dane Cash

Photo by By Jakub Cerveny (CC).

April 18, 2015
Paris-Roubaix 2015 Preview

After weeks of exciting racing in Northern Europe, the grand finale of the Cobbled Classics has arrived. Paris-Roubaix gets underway Sunday morning in the small town of Compiegne, about an hour North of Paris by car, and after roughly six hours of racing, 2015 will crown its third Monument winner.

The Route

The route of Paris-Roubaix 2015 is much like the route of Paris-Roubaix 2014, with the same few sectors of especially vicious cobbles likely to force selection. Its name notwithstanding, Paris-Roubaix starts in the town of Compiègne, about an hour north of Paris. The first 98 km are, comparatively, quite easy, but then the peloton will hit the first of twenty-seven classified cobbled sections.

The Troisvilles sector that kicks things off is not among the hardest but after nearly 100 km of growing tension there will be a mad dash for position and things are likely to get a bit chippy. Other sectors of only moderate difficulty follow, until the first five-star sector, the Arenberg trench, reached at kilometer 158. 2.4 km of very challenging cobbles, plenty of riders see their Roubaix hopes meet an early demise on the rough terrain. The run-up to the Arenberg is typically where the action starts in earnest in Paris-Roubaix, and after that, it doesn’t stop, with several difficult sectors to follow before another particularly challenging sector, Mons-en-Pévèle. 204.5 km into the race, it is a very long stretch of cobblestones at 3 kilometers, and a place likely to see a few long-range attackers attempting to get clear.

After a few more cobbled sectors comes the final five-star challenge, the Carrefour de l’Arbre, 2.1 km of particularly nasty cobbles. As the pack, or what’s left of it, will hit this section with only 17 kilometers remaining in the race, it’s the perfect spot to launch an attack. Those who survive the Carrefour de l’Arbre will only face three more comparatively easy cobbled sections before the race finishes with 800 meters in the Roubaix velodrome.

“Anything can happen” is a mantra often used and reused to describe bike races, but nowhere else does it ring true quite like it does here. Positioning is critical, with the peloton stretching out and tightening up again constantly, and with attacks flying at all times. On this difficult terrain, mechanical problems are always a major concern, and in so many of the difficult sections along the road to Roubaix, help can be a long time coming if a rider needs a new wheel. Talking to VeloHuman at the team presentation, Heinrich Haussler noted: “The whole race, you get a flat tire in the wrong spot, you might as well just jump in the car.”

The Contenders

Few races reward pure strength the way Paris-Roubaix does, with its practically pancake-flat parcours and its bruising cobbled sectors that favor those riders with a bit of weight to keep them from bouncing around on the difficult road surface. Simply put, it’s a race that strongly favors the powerful cobbled specialists, especially those with good bike handling skills.

Etixx-QuickStep is bursting at the seams with Classics specialists, and yet they still have not come away with a top-level win on the cobbles this year. This is their last chance, but they will have a great opportunity to make things right here. Niki Terpstra is the defending champion, and the Dutch 30-year-old has shown strong form throughout the spring races in 2015. His 2nd in the Tour of Flanders proved his excellent fitness right now, and given his elite soloing talent, he makes for a great card to play for EQS here. Zdenek Stybar, though, might be the prime pick for the Belgian superteam. His combination of bike handling skills, endurance, and a nice finishing kick are perfect for this race, and he’s come close here in the past. The tooth problems that plagued him in Flanders have been fixed, and he’s shown great form this season. Stijn Vandenbergh is another very strong option for the team. QuickStep can send one rider after another off the front here and that puts them in prime position to finally come away with a win in the top Classics.

Alexander Kristoff comes in as the big name on everyone’s minds after his stunning Flanders win. Roubaix has not been a great race for him in the past but with the form he has shown lately and his incredible skillset, there’s no reason why this shouldn’t be another opportunity for him to win a big event. However, it won’t be easy for Katusha to corral what are likely to be constant attacks from Kristoff’s rivals (even with a very strong Luca Paolini on the team), and favorite status won’t help Kristoff either. Knowing how fast he will be in the velodrome, every other rival in this race will look to leave Kristoff behind at any opportunity, and that will make things pretty difficult for the Norwegian. He’s obviously a very dangerous rider, but pulling off a Flanders-Roubaix double would be an enormous feat.

John Degenkolb is the other “sprinter” near the top of the favorites discussion right now. Runner-up in 2014, he’s one of the few who might be able to beat Kristoff in a sprint, and he mentioned his and his team’s very high levels of confidence multiple times at the team presentation in Compiégne, saying that he has no fear if the race comes down to a sprint battle with Kristoff in the velodrome. He’s obviously strong this year after winning Milano-Sanremo, but his results in the other Cobbled Classics haven’t quite been as expected. Still, he’s already shown how well he can ride in this race, and even though he just won a Monument Classic last month, Kristoff’s recent success has taken all of the spotlight perhaps allowing him to enjoy a bit of under-the-radar status.

Bradley Wiggins rode to 9th here last year with practically no cobbled racing prep, and this year he’s got his sights set completely on a Roubaix win to close out his Team Sky career. In a race where time trialists often thrive, Wiggins has the requisite power for a big result. The question is whether he has the handling skills and the Classics savvy—many ridres spend years gaining experience here, gradually chipping away at results. Wiggins has been incredibly successful in his career when he has put his mind to even a very difficult goal, but this is asking a lot. He also doesn’t have much of a finishing kick, meaning that he’ll basically need to drop all of his rivals. He has a shot, but it won’t be easy. Geraint Thomas, on blazing form this Classics season, has done well here in the past and should do well again. Ian Stannard and Luke Rowe are nice alternatives for Sky.

Sep Vanmarcke was the runner-up in 2013, missing out on the victory because he couldn’t outsprint Fabian Cancellara in the velodrome. To me, he seems much quicker at the line these days, but he’s been lacking something in the Cobbled Classics this year. He can handle the cobbles more adeptly than almost anyone in the sport and that makes him deadly here but, simply put, he’ll need to better here than he was in Flanders.

Greg Van Avermaet has not had the success here that he’s had in other cobbled races but his speedy finishing kick and excellent team (with strong Daniel Oss as a second) makes him dangerous. Peter Sagan only notched his first Top 10 here last year, but his Classics prep this season has left him looking more powerful and perhaps better suited to this race than he was in the past. More under-the-radar than usual after weeks of missing out on big results, he could benefit from a rare lack of eyes pointed in his direction.

Lotto Soudal has a three-pronged attack with Jürgen Roelandts, Tiesj Benoot, and the surprising André Greipel. Similarly, IAM Cycling has the trio of Sylvain Chavanel, Heinrich Haussler, and the surprising Martin Elmiger—Haussler told VH that Elmiger said prior to Flanders that he is in the form of his life, and he proved it at the Ronde. That could come in handy in this race where having multiple strong teammates in crucial. Astana’s Lars Boom has looked strong this year and this race suits his cyclocross background and time trialing prowess. Cannondale’s Sebastian Langeveld, Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, Trek’s Stijn Devolder, and OGE’s Jens Keukeleire are on the list of outsiders with a shot in Paris-Roubaix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Zdenek Stybar
Podium: Bradley Wiggins, Alexander Kristoff
Other Top Contenders: Niki Terpstra, Sep Vanmarcke, Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb, Geraint Thomas, Greg Van Avermaet, Stijn Vandenbergh

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis (from the roadside) of Paris-Roubaix 2015.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Brendan Ryan.

April 11, 2015
Vuelta Ciclista al País Vasco 2015 Preview

While the Cobbled Classics stars do battle in Northern Europe, many of the peloton’s top climbers are headed to the Basque Country for the Vuelta Ciclista al País Vasco. With a parcours that includes both climbs and an ITT, it attracts plenty of Grand Tour-style riders. It also happens to be a hilly race just a few days in advance of the Ardennes Classics, and therefore, it draws many of the likely protagonists of those races as well. True to form, the 2015 edition boasts an appealing, bumpy route and a strong startlist of stars with a variety of specializations.

The Route

There isn’t a lot of flat in the Vuelta al País Vasco. Potential launching pads are everywhere in this race.

Stages 1 and 2 both involve some hills and both end with downhill sections; sprint finishes (likely reduced) are possible, though only if the interested teams can work well to keep any attacks on a short leash. Stage 3 will test the riders with eight categorized climbs, which will almost certainly break things up.

Stage 4 finishes at Arrate just after a Cat. 1 summit. The race often sees a major shakeup here. Another eight-climb day on Stage 5 (closing out with a Cat. 2) will probably see plenty more action. None of these climbs are terribly long, meaning that those riders who can put some punch into a quick uphill charge will thrive.

Stage 6, the final day of racing, is an 18.3-kilometer ITT. The first half is downhill, but then the road goes up, and then down, and then up again towards the finish. Those two uphill sections are pretty tough, which will make this an interesting chrono to close out the Tour of the Basque Country

The General Classification Contenders

Although he would probably prefer the climbs to be more alpine in nature, 2013 winner Nairo Quintana looks like the top contender for the Tour of the Basque Country. Quintana knows how to win this race, he does well even in the time trials here (and this hilly ITT will suit him more than most), and he recently displayed incredible form when he won Tirreno-Adriatico ahead of a powerhouse field. It’s hard to see anyone matching him on the climbs, and he should be able to hold his own on the final stage time trial. With Beñat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre on the startlist as well, Movistar has a stacked lineup for this race.

Michal Kwiatkowski of EQS is the other top favorite for this race. 2nd last year, he has looked to be in excellent form (which he showed with a 2nd place in the recent Paris-Nice. Due to his nice sprint, he would surely prefer bonus seconds, but his explosiveness will suit him plenty even without added time bonuses at the line. He also happens to be one of the best time trialists in the world. It won’t be easy, but if he can hang with Quintana on the tough uphill stuff in this race, he should manage to take a victory on the back of his impressive chrono skills. Tony Martin, who can climb better than many realize, could have a chance at the overall as well.

A powerhouse BMC squad the includes Tejay van Garderen, Rohan Dennis, Samuel Sánchez, and Darwin Atapuma can’t be overlooked. Van Garderen has had a bit of an up-and-down season but his form looked very good at the queen stage of the Volta a Catalunya. If he can manage to avoid having a bad day here (the rainy Basque Country won’t make that easy) he should contend, especially given his great ITT skills. Rohan Dennis obviously sports a strong ITT as well, and is improving as a climber with every race, while Samuel Sanchez seems to always do well in this race, given his punchy skillset, well-suited to the parcours. Atapuma is a bit of a wildcard. He doesn’t get many opportunities to ride for himself but he just put in a nice Top 10 in Catalunya and could get some freedom here.

Rui Costa will love this route (he is a specialist on this sort of terrains) and his ability to put in a nice time trial, especially on a hilly profile, is constantly underrated by cycling analysts. That makes him a strong contender.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has improved as a time trialist and, 2nd in the Critérium International, he seems to have the for necessary to be in the mix here. AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud has been a strong time trialist for a long time and, 1st in the Critérium International, he most certainly has the form necessary to be in the mix here.

Bauke Mollema, 2nd at Tirreno-Adriatico, could continue to shine here. His form in Italy was impressive; he seemed to ride there at a level above what he can typically muster. It’s hard to say whether that will continue here but if the same Bauke Mollema shows up, he’ll contend for the win, with teammate Julián Arredondo an option for Trek as well. Meanwhile, Joaquim Rodriguez is on unknown form after skipping the Volta a Catalunya, but obviously he’s a very dangerous rider in this ultra-hilly race, especially with the Ardennes Classics looming. Simon Spilak was impressive at Paris-Nice and Daniel Moreno is always a strong alternative as well. Andrew Talansky, Tom Dumoulin, Mikel Nieve and Sergio Henao, Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves, and Rafal Majka are others with a shot at the GC in this Tour of the Basque Country.

The Stagehunters

The parcours seems to be deterring the class of pure sprinters who lack versatility from making the trip, but there are plenty of in-between types with fast finishes and strong climbing legs who will hope to bag stage wins here. Michael Matthews, Ben Swift, and Gianni Meersman look to be the class of the bunch, all capable of hanging on over uphill challenges and battling it out at the finish line in a sprint.

Tony Gallopin and Tim Wellens, Philippe Gilbert, Diego Ulissi, Tom-Jelte Slagter, and Simon Gerrans are strong bets to battle it out with the GC types for the intermediate stages that could come down to punchy late attacks or small group sprints; the versatile Lotto duo of Wellens and Gallopin could conceivably contend for the overall if they ride strategically.

And, of course, watch out for Amets Txurruka to try to go on the attack at all times. A constant fixture in KOM competitions in Spanish races, Txurruka has never actually won a WorldTour-level race, but his spirited breakaway attempts have come close in the past.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Nairo Quintana
Podium: Michal Kwiatkowski, Tejay van Garderen
Other Top Contenders: Bauke Mollema, Rui Costa, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Thibaut Pinot, Samuel Sánchez, Andrew Talansky, Joaquim Rodríguez

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mikel Ortega.

April 5, 2015
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Preview

With E3 and Gent-Wevelgem in the books, the Tour of Flanders is almost here. Sans Fabian Cancellara (and Tom Boonen, though he would not have enjoyed the same level of favorite status as Cancellara even if he were here) the 2015 Ronde looks especially open, which should make for quite a race.

The Route

At 264 kilometers, the Tour of Flanders is a long one, and the arduous journey gets more and more difficult as the day wears on. The peloton will set out from scenic Bruges and head south towards the cobbled climbs that this race has made so famous. The route contains seventeen officially classified climbs this year, many of them repeat trips up the same ascents, as the course starts looping into itself and covering the same ground again for multiple visits to these famous hellingen.

The final string of climbs that runs from roughly kilometer 219 to kilometer 251 are the likely battleground where this race will play out. Over the top of brutal challenges like the Koppenberg, after already having been up and over so many of these cobbles all day, the peloton is likely to break apart. And if things aren’t already shattered to pieces by the time the peloton hits the final climbs of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg, the attacks are certain to fly on the long drag of the former and the vicious steepness of the latter.

After the descent from the Paterberg, it’s a mostly straight run to the line, meaning that anyone hoping to whittle down the lead group is going to look to act before the final few kilometers.

The Contenders

It’s a wide open field for the Tour of Flanders this season, with four or five riders enjoying roughly equivalent favorite status and a host of others nipping at their heels. LottoNL’s Sep Vanmarcke is certainly among the top contenders. The Belgian cobbled specialist was 3rd here in 2014 and despite never quite coming away with that big win he’s been searching for in his career, he’s displayed the grit, the bike handling, the climbing chops, and the explosive required to make a bid for glory here. The results in the run-up races of E3 and Gent-Wevelgem haven’t quite been where he would have hoped, with others appearing stronger out on the road in both events, but this is the real prize for Vanmarcke and he seems like an excellent rider to watch as the final Kwaremont-Paterberg double approaches.

Similarly versatile is Zdenek Stybar of Etixx-QuickStep, who happens to also have a true powerhouse of talent supporting him team-wise. Stybar looks to be the best of the EQS riders for this race because, among the Classics stars on this QuickStep roster, he best combines climbing legs and a powerful finishing kick. But Niki Terpstra and especially Stijn Vandenbergh, 4th here last year and extremely savvy racing these roads, give the team options. Expect to see attacks flying from all sides late in this race.

Team Sky also brings firepower with their many talented stars on the roster, with Geraint Thomas leading the way. Among the strongest climbers in this Ronde, Thomas is on terrific form right now as evidenced by his win at E3 and his follow-up 3rd place at Gent-Wevelgem. Being able to rely on Ian Stannard and Bradley Wiggins will help. With a pair of Top 10s here already on his resume and a recent win in a race that incorporated many of the same climbs, Thomas has the experience necessary to take on this race as a top favorite and it would be a big surprise not to see him try something on one of the final climbs. The question is whether he’ll be able to shed his top rivals who might give him a run for his money in a small sprint.

One rider certain to be hoping that this race ends with a small group sprinting for the win is Tinkoff-Saxo’s Peter Sagan. Flying more under the radar right now than maybe he was expecting to be due to a general lack of results this year, Sagan might have a bit of an advantage that he doesn’t usually enjoy; so often, his plans are foiled immediately because all of his rivals are eying him at all times. This year, with the focus on other riders, Sagan may have a chance to make something happen the way he wants to. The form hasn’t been too bad, and this is a major objective, so he can’t be ignored even though he hasn’t been lighting it up coming into the Ronde this year.

After a crash at E3, where his skillset would have made him one of the likely top contenders at the business end of the race, Greg Van Avermaet might be flying under the radar a bit as well. But he seems to have recovered from his fall and he has been in excellent shape so far this year. 2nd here last year and a more capable sprinter than most, he may be able to look for the right wheels to follow this year rather than launching one of his trademark “almost-good-enough” attacks. Daniel Oss makes for a terrific teammate.

Speaking of terrific teammates, Alexander Kristoff will be in good hands with Luca Paolini at his side as well. In Katusha’s pre-race press conference, Paolini was very clear in his support of Kristoff, and that solidarity will be a great boon for the Norwegian. It won’t be easy to keep this together for a sprint (which is what Kristoff will need to win here) but Kristoff is tougher than most and with Paolini to help close down attacks if necessary, he has a fighting chance. So too does John Degenkolb, who may not have much of a history in this race but who has shown that he can climb well (winning plenty of hilly, intermediate-stage type races in the past) and ride cobbles well (winning Gent-Wevelgem in 2014 and taking 2nd in Paris-Roubaix that year) which are the necessary requirements to hanging on here. Given the difficult nature of this race and the wide open field likely to see constant attacks, I think the sprinters will have a very hard time here, but Kristoff and Degenkolb are the two obvious riders to watch in that potential scenario.

Jürgen Roelandts, who proved his great form with a bold solo move in Gent-Wevelgem, also packs a quick finish and that makes him dangerous here, with the surprising Jens Debusschere as an alternative. Stijn Devolder will head up Trek’s Flanders campaign in the absence of Fabian Cancellara. Cannondale-Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld was a late addition to the startlist, recovering from a recent crash; he’s a great talent in unknown shape right now. Astana’s Lars Boom, OGE’s Jens Keukeleire, MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, and a stable of young Topsport Vlaanderen talents that includes Jelle Wallays and Edward Theuns are among the outsiders who will hope to contend.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Zdenek Stybar, Geraint Thomas
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan, Stijn Vandenbergh, Jürgen Roelandts, Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Niki Terpstra

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more roadside analysis during the race. Also, don’t miss the Recon Ride podcast, with pre-race insight from Sep Vanmarcke, Geraint Thomas, and Patrick Lefevere.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mick Knapton.

April 4, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Barcelona › Barcelona – 126.6 km

After yet another surprise stage winner on the sixth day of the race (Sergey Chernetskiy won from the breakaway), it’s fitting that the Volta a Catalunya should close out with an unpredictable Stage 7. The 126.6-kilometer route will take the peloton in and around Barcelona, the Catalonian capital, and the profile is punctuated by eight trips up the Alt de Montjuïc, a 2 kilometer ascent with a 5.7% average gradient. After each climb comes a winding descent that leads back into the foot of the next journey upward, except for the final one, which runs right down to the finish line.

The up-and-down nature of the second half of the stage makes this a terrific day for the breakaway riders; the pack will have a hard time controlling the race with so many tempo changes and twists and turns near the finish. The eight-climbs-of-the-Montjuïc finale was used in both of the past two editions of the Volta and breakaway riders took it both times. Still, things are so tight on the overall leaderboard, and that the bonus seconds on offer here will be enticing for those looking to take this race out of Richie Porte’s hands; in short, as hard as it will be to maintain a hold on this race, many strong teams in the peloton will be motivated to do so.

Should the breakaway make it three straight years of success, look for riders like Tejay van Garderen, Tom Danielson, Maciej Paterski, and Jonathan Hivert to try to get one more day of hard work out of their legs after already putting in a lot of mileage off the front already. Giampaolo Caruso, far enough behind on GC that he might be given a bit of freedom, could be a good rider to watch here as well, on a parcours that suits his strong kick. Samuel Sánchez is another rider who is great on the short climbs and outside of GC contention; BMC has been working hard to get as much out of this race as possible, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them give Sánchez the green light to make a move if van Garderen is finally feeling a little winded after another difficult day. The stage also suits Enrico Gasparotto, Julien Simon, and Martin Elmiger.

Regardless of whether they’re fighting for stage honors, the GC riders will have their hands full here, with so much climbing and descending. If they do manage to reel in the breakaway and fight for the victory, an in-form Alejandro Valverde is again a good pick to win another day. Explosive Dan Martin and fast-finishing Rigoberto Urán and Wilco Kelderman are others on the GC leaderboard who are likely to battle it out here if it comes down to the overall race contenders.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Giampaolo Caruso | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis!

-Dane Cash

March 28, 2015
Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Preview

Geraint Thomas provided an exciting start to the WorldTour leg of Classics season with his bold move to win E3 Harelbeke on Friday. Now it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem.

The Route

A 240 kilometer trek through Flanders, starting in Deinze (outside of Ghent) and ending in Wevelgem, the race has a flat enough finale that things are often decided in a sprint. However, cobbled climbs along the way often make things a bit more interesting, whittling the peloton down to the tougher riders in the crowd or helping to launch the more aggressive types to victory from afar. There are nine officially recognized climbs on the profile (several of those are repeat ascents of the same uphill challenge). They are all crested after the 110 kilometer mark and before the 200 kilometer mark—the first 100 km and the final 30 are relatively flat.

The short but steep Baneberg, Kemmelberg, and Monteberg trio of climbs, a few kilometers southwest of Ieper, are done twice, and the conclusion of that second run-through also marks the end of the hellingen in Gent-Wevelgem. The difficult cobbles of the Kemmelberg, in particular, could be a battleground in this race, especially with the help of a common visitor to the event that seems scheduled to make another appearance in 2015: bad weather. As of Saturday, rain and very strong winds are both set to join the peloton for Gent-Wevelgem. Even with a less topographically challenging final 30 kilometers, the combination of tough cobbled climbs (and the often hairy descents that follow) in the middle of the day and likely difficult conditions throughout will surely do their damage.

The Contenders

The dearth of long climbs on the profile, especially close to the finish line, makes this a major target for the top sprinter’s in the peloton, but the bergs, the cobbles, the race distance, and the Flanders conditions will make the tougher quick men the top favorites for victory in this race, though a few of the more aggressive Classics specialists will certainly have a chance at taking this win for themselves.

Alexander Kristoff is at home in terrible conditions, comfortable on the cobbles, capable of a little climbing, and usually fresher than most after a very long day. He also happens to pack a powerful sprint. Though probably just a hair behind the likes of Marcel Kittel in terms of pure speed, here in the Classics, Kristoff’s makes up for the just slightly lower velocity with pure grit. There is no guarantee that this race ends in a sprint, but if it does, it’s hard to look past Kristoff’s abilities. He’s likely to hold on longer than most even if a high pace over the cobbled climbs starts dropping other sprinters, and if he’s there at the end of the day, few can match him in speed.

If he’s there as well, however, 2014 John Degenkolb will give Kristoff a run for his money. Already victorious over Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo, Degenkolb seems to get better and better every year both in the versatility department and in the top speed department. He’s a proven rider here in Gent-Wevelgem and on Flanders terrain in general. He might prefer a few more uphill challenges (his climbing legs are better than most) to maybe make things more selective but even if this race is contested in a large bunch sprint at the end of the day, Degenkolb will be a strong contender to repeat.

Mark Cavendish doesn’t have the same sort of versatility as some of the more Classics-oriented quick men here, but he is probably the fastest in a battle of pure speed. It won’t be easy making it to the line in the lead group, especially given the weather forecast, but if Cavendish can do it, he’ll have a great chance here—EQS teammate Matteo Trentin (3rd in E3) will be a strong second option in the sprints. Lotto Soudal’s André Greipel, who often rivals Cav in the pure sprints in stage races, and who has come close here in the past, is another very fast rider who will hope to hold on for a sprint at the end of a long day.

2014 runner-up Arnaud Démare has not had as much success early this season as he would have liked, but he is a big talent on this sort of parcours and motivated to prove himself as FDJ’s sole top name in the sprints this season. The rider he edged out for 2nd last year, Peter Sagan, will have an interesting choice to make this year: will he try to hold on for a sprint and test his luck against a pack of other fast finishers (as he did unsuccessfully in 2014) or will he launch a late attack and try to catch them all by surprise (as he did successfully in 2013, when he won the race)? The smart choice would seem to be to try to get away in a smaller group here, as he has not had much success in the bunch sprint lately. Either way, multi-talented Sagan is a threat in any scenario.

Giacomo Nizzolo has never finished this race, but given his skillset, he’ll be in with a chance. He’s a powerful sprinter, with a recent win at the GP Nobili, who doesn’t mind a long day. Unfortunately for Nizzolo, he crashed out of Dwars Door Vlaanderen and his current level of readiness to face the difficult Belgian roads again in a major race is unclear.

Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Tyler Farrar, Sam Bennett, Jens Debusschere, and JJ Lobato are other quick men who will have a chance if it all comes down to a sprint.

Several familiar names seem the most likely protagonists to shake up the race with a late attack. Sep Vanmarcke, on great form right now, 2nd here in 2010, and typically unfazed by bad weather, is a particularly dangerous rider right now. His continually improving sprinting ability makes his case even stronger. Pedal problems plagued slowed him at E3, but that should only make him hungrier for more racing these next few days.

Greg Van Avermaet may not have the sprinting chops of the top quick men here but he could still win in a reduced gallop, if he is feeling comfortable and still confident after a bad crash at E3 Harelbeke.

E3 Harelbeke winner Geraint Thomas is one of the sport’s most versatile riders, capable of soloing, climbing, and even sprinting at a high level. This parcours doesn’t suit him quite as well as E3’s did but there are still plenty of opportunities to attack here.

The powerful EQS trio of Zdenek Stybar, Stijn Vandenbergh, and Niki Terpstra, MTN-Qhubeka’s new acquisition Edvald Boasson Hagen, Filippo Pozzato, Lars Boom, and Jurgen Roelandts are others with a chance of winning solo or from a small group.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Mark Cavendish
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke, Greg Van Avermaet, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, André Greipel, Matteo Trentin

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-Dane Cash

March 28, 2015