Tag: Preview

Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Cervera › Port Aventura – 194.1 km

Stage 5 of the Volta a Catalunya was yet another day of GC action, with Alejandro Valverde soloing to victory ahead of a select group of riders, but the profile of Stage 6 will have the sprinters finally hoping for a chance to make their mark on the race. The long, low-gradient Alt de Prades in the middle of the stage won’t be an easy jaunt for anyone, but with about 70 kilometers after the top of the climb until the beginning of the next categorized challenge, anyone who struggles on the Cat. 1 will have plenty of opportunity to get back into the mix. That next categorized challenge is a short Cat. 3 crested over 30 kilometers from the line. From there, it’s a fast downhill followed by about 20 km of flat.

The late climb and steep descent towards the end of the day will certainly entice the punchier riders in the bunch, but several sprinters made their way to Catalunya hoping to come away with WorldTour stage victories, and one has to think that after so many days escaping their fast-finishing grasps, those quick men will be gunning for this stage, where a relative dearth of climbs will give them a chance.

Still, some uphill ability will be required to come to the line fresh. Bryan Coquard, very fast in a pure sprint but also capable of going up and over the occasional climb, is the prime pick. With Pierre Rolland out of the GC picture, Europcar should be throwing their full weight behind Coquard now.

Luka Mezgec is another strong pick, also very fast in a pure sprint. Unlike Coquard, he’s won several WorldTour-level sprints in his career, and against the young up-and-comer (who does tend to have positioning issues), that experience could come in handy.

Julian Alaphilippe gets a mention practically every day, but he hasn’t delivered just yet. Still, he’ll be more capable of surviving the pressure of late attacks by the GC riders than most of the other quick men here. The same is true for JJ Rojas, but Movistar clearly isn’t done backing Alejandro Valverde in this race just yet.

Speaking of Valverde, he’s certainly a contender again on Stage 6, where the late ramp will offer him a chance to break up the race, or at least shed some sprinter weight. As usual, Dan Martin, Rigoberto Urán, and Wilco Kelderman are others to watch if the final lead group is reduced too much to feature any sprinters.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Bryan Coquard | 2. Luka Mezgec | 3. Julian Alaphilippe

-Dane Cash

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis!

March 27, 2015
E3 Harelbeke 2015 Preview

After weeks and weeks of EuropeTour-level one-day races in Belgium, the final weekend in March ushers in the WorldTour stretch of Classics, opening with E3 Harelbeke. It’s typically a thriller, a race that takes advantage of the cobbled climbs in Flanders and balances them nicely with a long enough finishing straight to make the aggressors work extra hard to escape the pack. In short, an excellent way to kick off the next few weeks of marquee one-day events (the great appeal of this weekend’s racing was one topic covered in the Recon Ride podcast’s E3 + Gent-Wevelgem pre-race show, which is absolutely worth a listen).

The Route

E3 Harelbeke unsurprisingly starts and finishes in the town of Harelbeke, weaving through Flanders along a meandering and often cobbled 218-kilometer route that often crosses over itself. The profile contains 17 official climbs. The first half of the race contains only three of those climbs; the remaining fourteen come in rapid succession inside the second half of the day, finishing with around 22 km to go.

Among those many short but steep climbs are several familiar Tour of Flanders battlegrounds, including the quick (700 meters in full) but vicious (12% average gradient) Paterberg at around kilometer 175 and the longer Oude Kwaremont that follows almost immediately after and is crested around kilometer 180. Even the climbs that don’t seem particularly imposing are made all the more so because of the fact that they’ll be conquered with barely a moment’s rest in between—that, and the constant bone-rattling that will accompany many of them.

Things flatten out and ease up considerably, however, after the Tiegemberg with around 20 kilometer left in the race. From there it’s a less complicated (topographically, at least; this is Belgium after all, where the roads are never easy to race on) ride as the road loops into Harelbeke for the finish.

The Contenders

Though the length of the race doesn’t bring with it quite as much of an intimidation factor as that of Flanders or Paris-Roubaix, the cobbled, uphill challenges absolutely make this a favoring the Classics hard men, which makes it unsurprising that E3 Harelbeke has mostly come down to a late attacker surviving to the in several of the past few years. Still, Tom Boonen’s 2012 victory is an important reminder that this race can come down to a sprint. With so much ground left to cover after the Tiegemberg, it will only be a very strong attack that is capable of surviving a chasing pack in this race. Even in that scenario, a decent sprint could come in handy, if a small group crosses the line together (that’s what happened in 2014, when Peter Sagan outsprinted Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh to win the day).

Fortunately for anyone who likes to watch aggressive racing, several of the Classics season’s strongest aggressors are looking in sharp form right now, making powerful attacks a likelihood for E3 Harelbeke.

34-year-old Fabian Cancellara, who looked good in a Milano-Sanremo that did not particularly suit his less-than elite field sprinting, has won E3 Harelbeke a whopping three times in his career. He won’t exact be able to fly under the radar, but he’s so strong it might not matter. On the other hand, Cancellara is facing a retirement relatively soon, and having won in the past, he may elect to ease off the gas just a tad in the upcoming Monuments. Classics veteran Stijn Devolder is a rider who could get involved as well for Trek.

Peter Sagan, last year’s winner, is certainly in the hunt for Monument victories in 2015. It’s unclear how motivated he is to give it his all in this race after his win here last season failed to quiet critics of his inability to win “the big one.” Still, his combination of Classics-soloing prowess and a deadly sprint make him an obvious favorite once again.

Unlike the aforementioned Cancellara and Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke combines a skillset well-tailored for E3 with a lack of any WorldTour results on his palmares as of yet in his career. Lately his climbing skills and his sprint have both been showing themselves nicely, and they complement his cobblestone-riding strength quite well in this eve. His team support is a bit less strong than it was in year’s past now that Lars Boom is off the team, but Vanmarcke is the total package for the Belgian Classics, and it would be a big surprise to see him doing anything other than attacking last in this race. Form, motivation, and an excellent combination of abilities make him a strong pick to finally win a race at the top level.

Greg Van Avermaet is another rider who brings an excellent combination of form and motivation into E3. Van Avermaet is one of the peloton’s best late attackers who showed top-notch soloing form with a 3rd place in the opening time trial at Tirreno-Adriatico (not typically a discipline that sees him doing particularly well). And if he does launch a trademark attack but is unable to drop everyone else in the finale, his quickness to the line in a reduced sprint could make the difference here. His teammate Daniel Oss has been having a strong season and will be a rider to keep an eye on as well.

Etixx-Quickstep and Team Sky both sport multiple-pronged attacks to light up this race as the cobbled and uphill sections start coming fast and furious. Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh head up a powerful EQS, with Stybar looking like the most fit for this race (his climbing legs and his finishing kick stand out among his teammates), especially after his Strade Bianche victory. Meanwhile, Geraint Thomas, who is such a good climber it’d be disingenuous to pigeonhole him as a “Classics specialist,” may be the strongest option on a strong Sky squad, though Ian Stannard is a major danger as well.

After his Milano-Sanremo victory, John Degenkolb looks to be the class of the group of riders coming into this race hoping for a reduced sprint. His climbing ability will be particularly useful here in E3. Alexander Kristoff is another obvious name to watch in the sprint department; he doesn’t have Degenkolb’s uphill ability but he’s strong enough that he might be able to close gaps if he loses ground on the climbs; teammate Luca Paolini is an ideal supporter and deadly second.

Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Sylvain Chavanel and Heinrich Haussler, Filippo Pozzato, Sebastian Langeveld, and Jurgen Roelandts are other top riders to watch for this race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Stijn Vandenbergh, Geraint Thomas, Zdenek Stybar, Ian Stannard, Niki Terpstra, John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis from the roadside in Flanders!

-Dane Cash

March 26, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Tona › La Molina – 188.4 km

The Volta saw it’s first serious climbing battle on Stage 3, with Domenico Pozzovivo taking the day after jumping from a small lead group that included Richie Porte and Alberto Contador, among others, with Alejandro Valverde (who had taken a small spill along the technical route) and Chris Froome a bit behind. Stage 4 will likely be even more decisive, opening with a pair of Cat. 1s and then finishing with the one-two punch of an extra-long Special-Category Alt de la Crueta (21 kilometers at a 4.5% average gradient) and then the Cat. 1 La Molina summit finish (5.6 kilometers with a 5.8% average gradient).

Such an up-and-down day is likely to see consistent attacks. It won’t be easy to control this stage, making a breakaway stage victor possible; at the same time, there are all-important bonus seconds at the line, and several powerful teams hoping to take the top step of the Volta a Catalunya podium, meaning that the peloton will likely work hard to reel in anyone up the road.

As tough as this day will be, the final few kilometers are not terribly steep. It’s feasible that a small group reaches the top of La Molina together, which would give the advantage to the climbers with strong finishing kicks. Alejandro Valverde again comes to mind, though after racing Milano-Sanremo and heading straight to Spain to start in this race, it seems likely that at some point, Valverde might start to feel a bit of fatigue. He’s still a top favorite, but there is that question of whether or not he can keep chugging along at such a high level.

The Chris Froome vs. Alberto Contador battle may have given way to a Richie Porte vs. Alberto Contador battle, and Stage 4 will certain offer another battleground for the confrtontation. Porte has the stronger team, with almost all of Sky’s top climbers. With the number of options Sky has brought to this race, their odds of coming away with a result are pretty good. Then again, Alberto Contador at his best would be the best climber here (with the only rider who might rival him, Froome, still lacking just a bit of form after his illness at the beginning of the month). Contador is a shrewd tactician. The question is whether he can come up with the right strategy to beat this juggernaut Sky team.

Rigoberto Urán and Dan Martin may get another opportunity after they lost out to Domenico Pozzovivo on Stage 3. If they can stick with the lead group at the end of the day, they both have great finishing kicks to go for the victory at the line. The same is true for Wilco Kelderman, though it seems a bit less likely that Kelderman will survive this tough stage with the top favorites.

Pozzovivo will be another contender here, given the form he showed on Stage 3. He lacks the top speed to win a potential reduced sprint, meaning that he’ll need to jump from whatever group he is in to do win this stage, but he’s had a lot of success in doing just that. Fabio Aru, Andrew Talansky, and Esteban Chaves are other strong climbers who could be looking to go on the offensive.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Riche Porte | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Volta a Catalunya analysis!

March 25, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Girona › Girona – 156.6 km

A breakaway surprised the peloton on the opening stage of the Volta and threw the General Classification battle into chaos, and the GC-related surprises continued on Stage 2 when Alejandro Valverde outclassed several sprinters to take a win and valuable bonus seconds. A GC battle on Stage 3 of the Volta a Catalunya, however, would not come as a big surprise: with two Cat. 1 ascents inside the final half of the day, out of five total categorized climbs, this will be a stage that the climbers have marked in the roadbook. The Alt dels Ángels (Category 1, 6 kilometers at a 5.5% average gradient) is the uphill challenge to know here. The riders will crest it for the first time about halfway through the stage, then they’ll hit a Cat. 2, and then they’ll return to the Alt del Ángels once more for a second helping. From the top of that ascent it’s 13 km to the finish, and it’s downhill until there are less than 3 kilometers to go. Attacks launched on the Alt del Ángels could stick. The day’s climbing is not steep enough to be particularly intimidating to the marquee overall contenders, but the race situation after two stages could see the uphill specialists trying to make things happen on the slopes regardless.

With five categorized climbs punctuating the stage, a breakaway is possible here, though the GC teams are extra wary of ignoring the breakers after Stage 1. What’s more, bonus seconds are on the line in this Volta. With several of the top GC contenders sporting fast finishing kicks, the motivation in the peloton to reel in anyone off the front will be high.

One GC contender boasting a particularly speedy finishing kick is the rider who took stage 2. Alejandro Valverde is perfectly suited for this stage. He’s explosive enough on the climbs to try to break free, but a flat finish will make it likely that a small group of aggressors will cross the line here together, and Valverde is deadly sprinting out of a small group. As much of an advantage as the breakaway riders from Stage 1 have here in Catalunya, Vavlerde won’t go down without a fight.

Rigoberto Urán, Giampaolo Caruso, and Wilco Kelderman, all of them also sporting strong sprinting abilities to go with their climbing legs, will all be riders to watch in this scenario as well.

For many of the Cannondale-Garmin riders, these are home roads. This is an excellent profile for Dan Martin, who could be looking to launch an attack on the final ascent. His team knows how to make things interesting on days packed with climbs, and they have the firepower to do so—they might look to put on a show here similar to the one they put on in the 2013 Tour de France when Dan Martin won a mountainous Stage 9 after his team had been on the attack all day.

It’s not out of the question that Alberto Contador or Chris Froome try to make something happen on these climbs, but they aren’t quite steep enough or long enough to favor either of the former Tour de France winners. It won’t be easy for them to get clear here. In Froome’s case, a teammate may be better suited for this stage: Wout Poels tends to thrive on days with repeated not-inhumane climbs.

JJ Rojas, Enrico Gasparotto, and Julian Alaphilippe are among the sprintier types who at least have a shot of surviving. Meanwhile, breakaway-loving Thomas De Gendt probably has this parcours in mind as a perfect opportunity to try to take a long-range victory. He’s way down on GC and not a threat to the overall. Allowing him to make it to the line would not have the same implications for the peloton that their mistake on Stage 1 had. Amets Txurruka and the already-out-of-GC-contention Carlos Betancur are others to watch in a breakaway scenario.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Rigoberto Urán | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race!

-Dane Cash

March 24, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Mataró › Olot – 191.8 km

The 2015 Volta a Catalunya opened with quite a surprising first stage. Maciej Paterski, Pierre Rolland, and Bart De Clercq broke away from the peloton early in the day and never looked back, holding the advantage all the way to the line. Paterski won the stage. The peloton crossed the line 2:40 behind. Pre-race outsider Pierre Rolland now has the inside track to overall victory; nearly three minutes of an advantage will be hard for the other riders to overcome on this parcours.

Still, a bad day in the mountains can ruin even the strongest of GC positions, and there is plenty of racing to be done yet. Stage 2 is a 191.8-kilometer journey from Mataró to Olot. After a small early climb, there aren’t many topographic challenges, other than a pair of low-gradient rollers in the middle of the day, until near the finish line. The Alt de Montagut (2.1 kilometers, 4.5% average gradient) will be topped with less than 15 km to go, and it’s followed by an uncategorized uphill stretch that only flattens out inside the final 10 km.

The stage is not particularly difficult, but the last few climbs could complicate things for the heavier sprinters. The most likely scenario would seem to be a reduced sprint among the more versatile riders in the peloton, but there is always the possibility of a successful attack on one of the late steep sections.

As a rider who also sports a very fast finish, Julian Alaphilippe can climb quite well. He has had success in some very hilly races in the past, even occasionally get involved in late moves from time to time (he was 5th in the GP Ouest-France last year). That versatility makes him a prime pick here.

Bryan Coquard could improve as a strategist in the sprints, but there is no denying his blazing top speed, and he also has decent climbing legs. There’s not guarantee he’ll make it to the finish, but if he can, he’ll be difficult to beat.

JJ Rojas may not have the same top speed of the purer sprinters but he can handle difficult climbs. He’s a strong candidate for a good result, though victories are always hard to come by for Rojas.

Luka Mezgec isn’t quite as versatile but he’s a very capable sprinter, and if he doesn’t lose ground on the climb, he’ll have a great chance.

It’s possible that the GC riders try to mix it up at the end of this stage to claw back time from Rolland. Look for Dan Martin, Alejandro Valverde, and Rigoberto Urán if the overall race contenders manage to shed the sprinters.

If they don’t, the list of other quick men who make for decent contenders here includes: Matteo Pelucchi, Caleb Ewan, Julien Simon, Roberto Ferrari, Jasper Stuyven, and Greg Henderson. Punchy types like Enrico Gasparatto could also be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Bryan Coquard | 2. Julian Alaphilippe | 3. JJ Rojas

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty more analysis during the race!

-Dane Cash

March 23, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Calella › Calella – 185.2 km

With a roadside presence at the race, VeloHuman will be previewing individual stages of the 2015 Volta a Catalunya in addition to the overall race preview published earlier. Calella again hosts the opening stage of the race this year. The parcours resembles that of last year’s edition in many ways.

The stage opens with mostly flat roads for the first 80 kilometers, but the road turns upward near the midpoint of the day’s racing. The peloton will first take on the long Category 2 Alt de Viladrau (11.3 km, 3.3% average gradient) and then the Cat. 1 Alt del Coll Formic (7.8 km, 5.2% average gradient), before a long descent back towards the coast. The Cat. 3 Alt de Collsacreu (7.4 km, 3% average gradient) is the final climbing challenge of the stage, crested 18 kilometers before the line. The final few kilometers are mostly flat and not particularly technical.

Last year’s opening stage involved many of the same roads and similar climbs, and included the same ascent of the Collsacreu followed by a descent into Calella. That stage ended with a sprint finish. A repeat seems likely in 2015, though a reduction in the cast of characters likely to play a role in a bunch kick would also fall within the realm of expectation. These climbs probably won’t spring successful attackers, especially not on the first day of the Volta; though the Col Formic is a Cat. 1 challenge, categorizations are a bit deceiving in this race. Still, some of the heavier sprinters could fall out of contention on the slopes.

The diminutive Bryan Coquard has shown an ability to handle some climbing in the past, and he’s come close to a few wins already this year. Coming close to victory when racing at the WorldTour level is a common theme for Coquard, but with this startlist, he has a great chance of finally picking up a WorldTour win.

Caleb Ewan can handle some climbing and he looks to be on fine form after picking up two wins in the Tour de Langkawi. He’ll also have a good chance of picking up his first WorldTour win here.

Luka Mezgec won three stages last year (including the Calella opener of that edition) and seems like a good bet for more success in 2015 after already picking up a victory in the Tour du Haut Var-matin. The climbs will challenge him but if he can make it to the finish, he’ll be well-positioned to win. Matteo Pelucchi is in a similar boat: he’s had a lot of success so far this season and has a powerful finishing kick. If the climbs don’t take too much out of him he’s likely to contend for the win.

JJ Rojas is quite versatile for a fast finisher, and he has already taken a (rare) win this year. If some of the stronger sprinters are shed on the climbs, he’ll be one to watch. Julian Alaphilippe, Jasper Stuyven, Roberto Ferrari, Kévin Reza, and Julien Simon are other outside contenders with a chance. If a few of the GC names get aggressive on the climbs and manage to break up the race, look to Alejandro Valverde and Rigoberto Urán in a reduced sprint.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Bryan Coquard | 2. Luka Mezgec | 3. Caleb Ewan

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 1 for the preview of Stage 2.

-Dane Cash

March 22, 2015