Tag: Preview

Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19 (ITT): Bassano del Grappa > Cima Grappa (Crespano del Grappa) – 26.8 km

It isn’t really a surprise that most of the maglia rosa hunters took a measured approach to Stage 18 (which went to Julian Arredondo from the breakaway) with something as important as Friday’s ITT on the horizon. Only three stages remain in this Giro d’Italia, and only two of them are likely to have any effect on the overall outcome: it’s all down to the wire in the first Grand Tour of the year, and Stage 19 will play a huge part in the final GC standings.

The 26.8 kilometer individual time trial that awaits is not your average chrono. It is dominated by a Category 1 climb that kicks off around 7.5 kilometers into the stage. Hill climb TTs are not uncommon, but ones that combine gradients this high with such grueling length are rare: the Monte Grappa climb is a beast, 19.3 kilometers long at an average of 8%, with a few very steep sections near the top, including one that touches 14%. It’s about as long and, on average, about as steep as the Montecampione climb that launched Fabio Aru to victory in the Giro’s fifteenth stage. Unlike the summit finishes that have preceded it, however, this race against the clock won’t allow riders to bunch up and ride together along the lower slopes, conserving energy for late attacks. Each rider must face this challenge on his own.

This is a mountain test that will reward the best climbers in the race, especially those who combine lightweight frames with good endurance. Most of the riders generally considered time trialing specialists will not have a chance; the GC men are the likeliest contenders. Nairo Quintana is the heavy favorite. He’s the best climber here, a featherlight who excels at going uphill all by himself for extended periods of time. He’s good enough in a standard time trial, but on a stage like this, he is going to excel. Anything less than a win on Stage 19 will be a disappointment for the Movistar rider.

Rigoberto Uran dominated the Giro’s first time trial, but this will be a very different test. He’s been climbing well throughout the race and he obviously has the engine to produce a high wattage for quite a while. I imagine that he’ll be able to strengthen his hold on a podium position with this ride, but picking up time on Quintana will be a big ask.

Domenico Pozzovivo is my third favorite. Illness has slowed him down late in this race, which is unfortunate, because he had planned to be more aggressive in this last week. Still, he’s looked good in the past two tough mountain finishes, and he’s shown off some seriously improved chrono chops recently. He was decent in the first ITT of the race, but a hill climb like this suits him very well.

I expect success from Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka in Stage 19. He was just a hair better than Uran in the mountain ITT in last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he’s extremely motivated to fight for the podium. I’m not sure if the vicious gradients of the Monte Zoncolan will suit him compared to his rivals, so this could be his best shot.

Wilco Kelderman is a stronger time trialist than most of his GC rivals on a flatter course, but that advantage will fade on these slopes; obviously he’s still an excellent climber, so a strong result is likely, but in terms of gaining time on GC I think he’d prefer a profile that doesn’t suit the other contenders as well. Fellow 23-year-old Fabio Aru, on the other hand, may be something of an unknown in the time trial, but if there were ever an ITT for the climbing star to shine in, this is it. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is climbing wonderfully, but his affinity for uphill attacks does not necessarily translate that well in a chrono; he has not excelled in time trials, even in the hillier ones, in his career. BMC’s Cadel Evans is fading fast as the Giro gets harder and harder and I think he will struggle to limit his losses here. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal lost some time in Stage 18 and will be hoping for a rebound. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski does not have a good track record in the ITT but he’s on very strong form at the moment and this will be an excellent opportunity for the climber to get a rare decent result against the clock.

Sky’s Dario Cataldo, the OPQS trio of Thomas de Gendt, Wouter Poels, and the very surprising Gianluca Brambilla, Androni’s Franco Pellizotti, the Tinkoff-Saxo pair of Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers, and Trek’s Julian Arredondo (there are KOM points up for grabs) are probably the best non-GC candidates for stage success here but it would be a pretty big surprise to see anyone who isn’t hunting the maglia rosa take the day.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Rigoberto Uran | 3. Domenico Pozzovivo

Saturday’s finish atop Monte Zoncolan will be a thriller, so check back for the preview after the last rider crosses the line in the Stage 18 ITT. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 29, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Belluno > Rif. Panarotta (Valsugana) – 171 km

Culminating with the Category 1 Rifugio Panarotta climb, the Giro’s eighteenth stage is sure to offer fireworks. However, with an all-important uphill time trial on the horizon followed by the nasty Monte Zoncolan the day after, the GC contenders may decide to temper their efforts on Stage 18, which could open things up to a breakaway for the second day in a row (Stefano Pirazzi got into the day’s big move on Stage 17 and ultimately took the win). Once again, it wouldn’t make sense to call any one rider the singular favorite, but several riders do deserve to be considered contenders.

The profile is a mountainous one, with the Passo San Pellegrino as the first categorized climb on the menu. It’s a Cat. 1, 18.5 kilometers at an average of 6.2%. While it officially starts some 36 km into the race, by that point the road has already been going uphill, albeit gently, for about 30 kilometers! In other words, the first hour and a half of racing will take a lot out of the riders. From the top of the climb, it’s a descent followed by some ups and downs into the short but steep Passo del Redebus climb. Then comes a long descent and a flat section before the finale, a 15.9 kilometer, 7.9% average gradient ascent to the Rifugio Panarotta.

As difficult as the day looks, Stage 19’s time trial and Stage 20’s climax atop Monte Zoncolan finish may prove more decisive for GC. That could see the main maglia rosa contenders trying to keep their powder dry. On the other hand, Nairo Quintana has a significant GC lead, and his rivals know that their time is running out. Some of them are also probably not likely to fancy their chances against the clock. If they decide to use Stage 18 as an opportunity to take back time, anyone up the road will struggle to maintain an advantage on the final climb; it’s yet another day that, to me, is a tossup to go to the break or to the GC riders.

As the best climber in the race, Nairo Quintana is the first favorite among the overall contenders. As I like to point out in these breakaway-friendly scenarios, I’m not sure I’d bet on him against the field, but given the uncertainty that comes with trying to predict who will make the breakaway, let alone survive out front, his chances are at least as good as any other one rider in the race. His team can drive a very hard pace on the ascents, and even though he is now in the leader’s jersey, I don’t think he will just sit around and let attackers go by him on the final climb. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is driven to extend his lead to quiet critics of his unpopular Stelvio descent.

Astana’s Fabio Aru has had an amazing Giro d’Italia, but with a time trial approaching, he may feel the pressure to make an attack on this stage, and he’s looked strong enough to be a real contender for a victory. Nobody could match him on the Montecampione ascent, and he hasn’t shown any signs of fading. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland could have similar motivation. Time trialing has never been a strong suit. However, after two weeks of being given a lot of a leeway to make attacks due to his relatively non-threatening GC position, Rolland is now a marked man. It will be interesting to see how he responds, and whether he’s able to ride with the big favorites now that he won’t find it as easy to escape from long distance.

At 1:41 down, Rigoberto Uran knows he needs to act, so he could try to put Quintana under pressure here. Domenico Pozzovivo is even further down, making an attack likely. Young guns Rafal Majka and Wilco Kelderman have not been afraid to try late moves when they’ve seen openings. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal made huge gains in GC and looked excellent on Stage 16 but, like Rolland, he’ll now find that his rivals won’t give him the same kind of freedom that he’s had up till now. BMC’s Cadel Evans has been losing time in the mountains and he will have his work cut out for him holding onto the final podium spot—this is a steep final ascent.

Should the maglia rosa hunters take a reserved approach, the morning breakaway could stick. A number of strong climbers could be weighing their chances in either scenario. He has not featured as prominently lately as he did in the first several stages, but Trek’s Julian Arredondo cannot sit idle here. There are too many KOM points on offer for him to miss the breakaway. If he can get into the day’s move, he will be a strong contender for stage honors. His countryman Fabio Duarte was 2nd behind Fabio Aru on the Montecampione climb. If he makes the break, he probably won’t waste his energy trying to pick up early mountain points, and that could leave him better prepared for the finale. Team Colombia squadmates Robinson Chalapud and Jarlinson Pantano are further strong options. Katusha’s Daniel Moreno looked very strong on Stage 15 and is running out of chances to get something positive out of this race, so he could try to strike here. Androni Giacotolli’s Franco Pellizotti is in a similar boat.

Other potential long-distance candidates include Sky’s Dario Cataldo and Sebastian Henao, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Damiano Cunego, FDJ’s Alexandre Geniez, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, and Neri Sottoli’s Matteo Rabottini.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Fabio Duarte

Friday’s time trial will have major GC implications, so be on the lookout for the preview after the conclusion of Stage 18. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 28, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Sarnonico > Vittorio Veneto – 208 km

The riders who managed to survive the brutal sixteenth stage that put Nairo Quintana into the pink jersey will have an easier day on Stage 17, but this one is tougher than it looks. 208 total kilometers with an undulating profile, the journey from Sarnonico to Vittorio Veneto could end in a sprint finale, but both early breakers and late attackers will also like their odds.

There are three categorized climbs (all Category 4) and a number of uncategorized bumps on the day. None of them are particularly long, but the Muro di Ca’ del Poggio, the third Cat 4, is quite a steep affair. Though short at 1.2 kilometers, it averages 12.2%. It is crested with 20 kilometers left on the stage. The climb is followed by a similarly steep descent. The finish is yet another tricky affair, with back-to-back sharp left-handers between the 750-m-to-go mark and the 450-m-to-go mark, before a straightaway opens up to the line.

With a rolling profile and a vicious late ascent, the sprinters’ teams will have their work cut out for them in trying to control the race. Constant ups and downs will benefit early escapees. Even if the day’s main break is caught, the final bump in the road could see attacks from the punchier riders in the peloton. However, after the debacle on Stage 13 (in which a total lack of organization among the sprinter squads allowed a breakaway to take the victory), the likes of Giant-Shimano, Cannondale, Trek, and FDJ should be motivated to drill a high pace and shut down the hopes of anyone hoping to win off the front. As with most rolling, breakaway-friendly stages, this one is extremely tough to call.

Even if the peloton does manage to reel in any attackers, it’s not a guarantee that all the familiar names will have survived the day’s challenges. Nacer Bouhanni is the big favorite for sprint finishes in this Giro, especially on another technical final few hundred meters, but he may not hung on through the difficult journey with the pack. Giacomo Nizzolo may have slightly better odds, as he has shown an ability to hang on through some tough days in his young career, but he’s still a question mark. The same is true for Luka Mezgec, who can at least rely on one of the most dedicated support squads to help him reach the finish in a good position. Cannondale’s Elia Viviani, as usual, is also a strong candidate for a sprint, if he survives. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar and Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari are other outsiders among the pure sprinters. Sky’s Ben Swift, now that his teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen and Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews are both out of the race, becomes a big favorite in the event of a reduced sprint. He’s climbing beautifully at the moment (he beat Franco Pellizotti to the top of the Val Martello climb by over two minutes) but he’s also quite fast. Bardiani-CSF’s Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli, Garmin-Sharp’s Nathan Haas, and Giant-Shimano’s Simon Geschke also become much more attractive options if the bunch has been whittled down by the day’s climbing. It wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see Wilco Kelderman or Cadel Evans try to get involved if the group is small enough.

Riders like Cannondale’s Moreno Moser and Oscar Gatto, Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi, Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, and even Lampre’s Diego Ulissi and Katusha’s Daniel Moreno could try to enliven Stage 17 on the final climb.

It will be a vicious battle to get into the morning breakaway. Some of the tougher names listed above could try their luck; other riders who could be hoping to hang out front for a long one include Katusha’s Luca Paolini, Trek’s Fabio Felline, Bardiani-CSF’s Enrico Barbin and Edoardo Zardini (their squad really does have a wealth of options for the variety of potential scenarios on Stage 17), and Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hanson. It’s always a crapshoot predicting who will make it into the big move, but whoever does get into the morning break will be in a great position for the stage win, especially if the sprint trains fail to organize properly.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. Giacomo Nizzolo | 3. Ben Swift

The GC action will heat up again on Stage 18; keep an eye out for the preview a few hours after Stage 17. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 27, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Ponte di Legno > Val Martello/Martelltal – 139 km

The peloton will be glad to have enjoyed a rest day before the brutal climbing challenge that awaits on Stage 16. Stage 15, which saw Fabio Aru take a victory and Nairo Quintana take some valuable time on GC, provided a great look at the uphill form of the big names in this race, but trips up the Passo Gavia, the Stelvio, and the Val Martello climbs could rewrite the script.

Unfortunately, snow in the high mountains has opened the door for the possibility of an alternate route that would skip the first two climbs and replace them with a different pair of ascents before the finale. Race organizers will assess the weather situation on the morning of the stage. At the moment, however, RCS Sport is planning to go ahead with the original route, so this preview is going ahead with it as well.

139 kilometers make this the second shortest non-TT stage in the Giro d’Italia, but that won’t be much consolation for the riders. Very few of those kilometers don’t involve grueling ascending or nervous descending. The peloton will enjoy about 5 downhill kilometers to start the day before they take on the Passo Gavia climb, 16.5 km at 8%. From Cat. 1 summit, it’s a technical and rough descent that runs to the foot of the Stelvio ascent, 21.7 kilometers at an average of 7.1%. The roads are narrow and it’s quite cold towards the top. Another tricky descent follows, before the road flattens out a bit with around 35 kilometers remaining. The final climb is an irregular 22.4 kilometer journey that averages 6.4%, but it includes various sections of 10% or more, including one just before the finish line.

This stage is a prime target for anyone hunting the King of the Mountains jersey. The top of the Stelvio, as the highest point in the Giro (the “Cima Coppi”), offers more KOM points than any other climb in the race. The Gavia and Val Martello climbs are both Category 1s. The competition to get up the road early will be fierce, as it will be difficult for any rider who misses out to take home the blue jersey. As leg-breaking as the first two climbs are, the final ascent will be an excellent opportunity for the GC men to attack each other, enough so that most of the big pink jersey contenders are probably planning to hold off on making moves until the road goes up for a final time. This means that the breakaway, already likely to be made up of some very talented climbers, will have a great shot of staying away.

As with most breakaway-friendly stages, naming favorites it’s quite difficult, but Julian Arredondo stands out as one of the likely protagonists to make things interesting. He went far too early on the Montecampione climb on Stage 15 and cracked, but he’s had a day off to recover some strength and he knows how important this one is. Given the likelihood of breakaway success, Arredondo is a great bet to take the stage from an early move, assuming he doesn’t go too deep trying to pick up points in the first two climbs. If he is there in the final, he’ll have a number of opportunities on the irregular slopes to launch an attack.

Colombia’s Fabio Duarte nabbed 2nd on Stage 15 among the very best climbers in this race. Unlike Arredondo, Duarte does not seem focused on the blue jersey, meaning that he won’t need to expend too much energy trying to be the first to the top of the Gavia or Stelvio climbs. He’s far enough down on GC to be allowed off the front and he’s on elite form at the moment, making him a great candidate for success here. If Duarte is on the front towards the end of the day, he’ll be a really difficult guy to catch on the final climb. Another option for Colombia is Duarte’s teammate Jarlinson Pantano, who came pretty close to victory from the breakaway on Stage 14 and could look to try again after recharging his batteries.

Katusha’s Daniel Moreno stuck with the GC contenders on Stage 15 and finished 8th on the day. No longer a threat for the maglia rosa, Moreno could try to go for a long one, and he’s obviously in top shape. Katusha came into this race with such high hopes, and Moreno is their best bet to make something happen.

Other strong options to go long include Sky’s Dario Cataldo and Sebastian Henao, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Diego Ulissi, Neri Sottoli’s Yonathan Monsalve, Astana’s Mikel Landa, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche.

If the peloton decides to keep the gaps manageable over the first two ascents, it will be tough for a breakaway to survive all the way up the brutal final climb. Should the GC contenders end up fighting it out for stage honors, Nairo Quintana has to be the favorite. He has shown in the last two stages that he’s recovered from the health issues that plagued the beginning of his bid for Giro glory, and he’s had another rest day since then just in case he wasn’t all the way back to full strength. With two long mountain slogs to wear out the legs in the first half of the stage and a third with plenty of excellent launching pads for attacks to close things out, Stage 16 suits Quintana’s skillset perfectly. He needs to claw back time on his GC rivals, and this is an excellent opportunity that he won’t likely pass up. I wouldn’t necessarily bet on him over the field, given the likelihood of breakaway success, but he’s certainly the single favorite rider to take the day.

Astana’s Fabio Aru delivered a beautiful victory on the Plan di Montecampione on Sunday. He made a decisive move to get away from the pack of GC contenders and stayed full throttle all the way up, putting his raw talent and his top-shelf form on full display. We’re into the third week of the race now and he has yet to show signs of slowing down. With teammates like Michele Scarponi and Mikel Landa, he has a great shot at continuing his successful Giro, though the seemingly endless climbing of Stage 16 will really put him to the test.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is climbing quite impressively in this race. Far enough back on GC that the big names are giving him breathing room to attack, he has gone on the move at nearly every opportunity so far, and clawed back some of the time that he lost early on the Giro. With the form he has displayed constantly jumping out ahead of his GC rivals, Pierre Rolland should have another strong performance in the cards. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal has not been as successful, but he’s looked decent so far and could also see success if allowed to get out front.

Gaining time on almost all of his rivals (other than Quintana and Aru) on Stage 15, Rigoberto Uran made a strong statement that his Stage 14 may have been more the result of a bad day than a loss of climbing form. OPQS (with Wout Poels leading the way) has supported him well on the tough mountain days. He’s more focused on marking his GC rivals than jumping ahead for stage honors, but with his explosive uphill ability he could have a shot if things hold together until the end of the last climb.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka has a great resume on the very hard days in the mountains and could look to make something happen here. He was one of the strongest GC riders on Stage 15 and Stage 16 could be even better for the climbing star. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo has not quite lived up to expectations in the past few stages but a true climber’s test with plenty of opportunities to attack should suit him. BMC’s Cadel Evans won’t love the constant changes of pace that his rivals are likely to force on these irregular slopes, but he could respond to moves more effectively after a rest day. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman has hung with the best so far, but he has another brutal test waiting for him here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Duarte | 3. Julian Arredondo

Keep an eye out for news of a possible route change in Stage 16, but even in the event of alterations, it’s still likely to be a day with big GC implications. The Stage 17 preview will be up a few hours after the Stage 16 finish. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 26, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Valdengo > Plan di Montecampione – 225 km

There were no huge time gaps among the main GC contenders on a Stage 14 that went to a breakaway, but we learned a lot on the first really hard climbs of this race about who is on top form. Nairo Quintana seems to have overcome the various ailments that have troubled him through the first two weeks of the Giro d’Italia. His rivals have their work cut out for him as the road continues to go up in the next few days.

At 225 total kilometers, Stage 15 is one of the longest in the race, but the first 205.7 kilometers are quite flat. The real action will be reserved for the end of the day, when the road heads skyward. The Category 1 Plan di Montecampione is a leg-breaker, 19.4 kilometers at 7.6%. The first 11 km are pretty steady at around 8%, and then there is a brief respite in the 3% to 4% range before a finale of roughly 5 kilometers at gradients nearing 9%.

A breakaway victory is again possible, but with a rest day to follow and a lot on the line, the big guns should be out to play on the slopes. Wide roads and a mostly flat run-in to the final climb won’t offer much advantage to early attackers either.

It took two weeks, but Nairo Quintana finally showed his hand in Stage 14. He appears to be back at full strength, and on this long, steep final climb, he’s the big favorite now that he looks recovered from his crash and the sickness that followed. Movistar’s mountain goats also showed their mettle on Stage 14 and they’ll be able to put Quintana in a great place to take on this final ascent.

AG2R was another particularly impressive squad on the road to Oropa, especially given their cast of domestiques with names less recognizable than Eros Capecchi or Igor Anton. Domenico Pozzovivo ensured that their work was put to good use, picking up a few seconds on some of his GC rivals when he attacked with Nairo Quintana and managed to maintain a gap over at least a few of the riders behind. Stage 15 is another golden opportunity for the aggressive Italian and his dedicated French team to make their mark, and I expect Pozzovivo to be one of the strongest GC contenders on this climb.

Pink jersey wearer Rigoberto Uran did not look comfortable trying to match the moves of Quintana and Pozzovivo on Stage 14 and he lost some time, possibly a sign that the excellent time trialing ability he has developed may have come at the expense up some of his trademark uphill talent. With over 19 kilometers of sustained climbing to close out Stage 15, Uran could be in trouble. Still, it’s possible that he’s just had one bad day, and I’m not ready to completely downgrade my opinion of Uran just yet. Another day or two in the mountains will offer more clarity.

Cadel Evans looked to be struggling on Stage 14 as well. He didn’t lose a huge chunk of seconds, but the Plan di Montecampione climb is much longer, and it’s steeper. He has had good support so far, but I’m not sure how well BMC will be able to stick with their leader on the really difficult climbs of this final week. Evans still has a nice buffer to most of his rivals on GC (other than Uran), but I expect him to start losing time on these high gradients.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka should be pretty excited about this profile and what’s to come. He’s sitting 3rd at the moment, he’s climbing wonderfully, and he has a good team around him. Nicolas Roche took to the break on Stage 14, but he’ll be a very valuable domestique when called upon, as will Michael Rogers. In last year’s Giro, Majka showed on the Altopiano del Montasio and the Galiber that he can turn a good rhythm on even the very long climbs, so this finish should suit him.

Astana’s Fabio Aru continues to impress me. He actually finished just ahead of Pozzovivo on Stage 14. I keep waiting for him to show signs of weakness as we get deeper and deeper into the Giro d’Italia, but he has not faltered yet, and could be in for continued success on this stage for the pure climbers. Wilco Kelderman also continues to impress me, but this will be a real test. It’s a very long way to the Montecampione finish, and Kelderman doesn’t have a cast of supporters well-suited to the slopes. He’s proven that he deserves to be among the very biggest names in this race so far, but he’ll have his work cut out for him.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will be coming off a very hard effort, and it would be difficult enough when fully rested to match the big favorites on this long slog. Ryder Hesjedal certainly looks to have found some of his old form, but this will be a major challenge after a long day.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo did not make the Stage 14 breakaway, opening the door for Tim Wellens to pick up a lot of KOM points. There’s a big stash of points on offer at the Stage 15 finish, so I think it’s pretty likely that Arredondo will be very active in defense of his blue jersey, and as a non-threat to GC, he’ll probably be given freedom to go for a long one. Diego Ulissi is another explosive climber who doesn’t pose a big GC threat, but it’d be pretty surprising to see him survive this extended uphill journey unless he manages to do it from a long-distance move.

Speaking of long distance, more candidates for breakaway success (and outside candidates for success if they wait until the big climb) include Katusha’s Daniel Moreno and Colombia’s Fabio Duarte, neither of whom went particularly deep on Stage 14, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Androni’s Diego Rosa and Franco Pellizotti, and Bardiani’s Francesco Bongiorno. Also watch out for Sky’s Sebastian Henao, who has been climbing very well so far and who does not have any teammates with GC aspirations to look after now that Sky’s last hope for the overall, Kanstantsin Siutsou, has abandoned.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Domenico Pozzovivo | 3. Julian Arredondo

The peloton gets to enjoy a rest day after Stage 15, so check back on Monday for the preview of Tuesday’s Stage 16. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

May 24, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Aglie > Oropa – 164 km

There have been a few hills along the Giro route so far, several major crashes with GC implications, and a crucial individual time trial, but organizers waited until the fourteenth stage of the race to challenge the maglia rosa hunters with serious climbs. The GC men enjoyed a relatively easy day in the saddle on Stage 13 (a short, flat stage that somehow went to a breakaway thanks to a lack of cooperation among the sprinters’ teams), and they should be charged and ready for action.

Stage 14 is not a particularly long one but it involves a lot of uphill mileage. After some early bumps, the peloton will reach the foot of Category 1 Alpe Noveis a little over 85 kilometers in. It’s a tough ascent, averaging 7.9% over 9 kilometers but with a nasty midsection that jumps up over 11% for about 4 km. It’s followed by a very fast descent that runs right into the bottom of the Bielmonte climb, a long Cat. 2 that averages 5.6% for 18.4 kilometers. It may be a bit too far from the finish for much GC action, but it will certainly wear down the legs. Another long descent leads to the town of Biella and the foot of the final ascent to the Oropa Sanctuary, a Category 1 11.8 kilometer climb that averages 6.2%.

With so many ups and downs, a finish that is steep but not so steep as to guarantee huge gaps, and many difficult days to come, Stage 14 could see a non-GC threat ride away for victory. Trek’s Julian Arredondo has established himself as one of the strongest climbers in the race, and he’s gunning for mountain points. The final climb has a few high-gradient sections that will allow him to attack from whatever group he is in. One potential obstacle for Arredondo will be the fast descending required over much of the stage; the tiny climber isn’t known for his descending skills. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, who showed an interest in a breakaway victory on Stage 11, and Michael Rogers, who showed off his descending skills on the way to a win that day, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela’s Diego Rosa, Colombia’s Fabio Duarte and Robinson Chalapud, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi and Francesco Bongiorno, and Katusha’s Daniel Moreno are other potential protagonists who could be allowed up the road, in an early break or with a late move. Fair warning: these same names will likely be a common theme in the “if a breakaway takes it” sections of the next several mountain stage previews!

We’ve been waiting for GC contenders to actually show an interest in lighting up the race, and a few names stand out as potential aggressors on Stage 14. The time trials and various mishaps have already opened significant time gaps on the leaderboard, which could incite the kinds of all-out attacks and high speed chases from the bunch that will cut into the chances of the breakers. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo is a favorite. He’s aggressive, his team is willing to work very hard on the slopes for him, and he looks strong right now: for a non-specialist in the time trial, he put in a fine performance in the ITT, which suggests that he is in great shape. He has the strongest balance of ability, form, and motivation to shoot upward on the final climb, and that combination could be enough to overcome even a strong breakaway group for stage honors. Pink jersey wearer Rigoberto Uran certainly has the ability and form, but now that he’s in the driver’s seat, he may let others do the attacking. Still, everyone is eyeing Nairo Quintana and waiting for him to make a move, and Uran could see an opportunity to try to widen the gap so that it is an even taller order for his Colombian rival if/when the Movistar leader recovers from his various ailments.

And what of Quintana? Were his health not in question, he’d be in my Top 3 favorites for the day. Unfortunately, just as he was recovering from his Stage 6 crash he fell sick. He did not appear to be at full strength in the ITT. He may have returned to 100% by now, but he’ll have to prove that he’s firing on all cylinders before I start predicting victory here.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka should do very well on Stage 14. He was very impressive in the chrono and he’s got some punch to make a move. The young Pole already has a Giro d’Italia Top 10 on his resume: now, he wants more, and he’s setting his sights on the podium. Astana’s Fabio Aru currently sits 7th on GC, and he’s now in a leadership role for a strong squad. Repeated days in the high mountains may start to wear on him next week, but for now I like his odds.

Trek’s Robert Kiserlovksi is an outsider I see with real potential. He’s been stellar on the climbs this year even against top competition. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will almost certainly try something on one of the steeper sections of the road to Oropa. Diego Ulissi of Lampre lost a lot of ground on GC thanks to a Stage 11 crash, but his ITT performance kept him on the fringes of the overall leaderboard, meaning that he will be likely remain a marked man. Still, he’s a decent bet at this point in the race. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman will hope to prove that he can hack it as the Giro starts to enter some very tough days, and BMC’s Cadel Evans will hope to take advantage of his strong team support and possibly try to take back time now that Uran has grabbed the overall lead. The next few days should provide some insight into just how well he is climbing.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Domenico Pozzovivo | 2. Julian Arredondo | 3. Rigoberto Uran

The Stage 15 preview will be up a few hours after the conclusion of Stage 14. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 23, 2014