Welcome to the first of 21 stage previews for the 2014 Giro! In case you missed the overall race preview, you can find it here. As a quick note: I’ll be previewing every day of racing, all the way to Trieste, so you can check back every day for stage profiles and picks. There will also be plenty of live analysis on Twitter, so be sure to follow the new @VeloHuman for more.
The Giro d’Italia gets underway with Friday’s 21.7 kilometer team time trial. The stage begins and ends in Belfast. The profile is not particularly challenging, with a minor bump at the first time check as essentially the only topographic feature. There are a few twists and turns, but it should be a relatively straightforward affair. I don’t think the time gaps will be huge but some of the smaller, more climbing-oriented teams will have to fight to limit their losses.
As is becoming more and more frequent in these types of races, Orica-GreenEdge looks to be the strongest squad for the day. The Aussie squad takes a pretty focused approach to these contests, and it tends to pay off (it did at last year’s Tour de France). The likes of Luke Durbridge, Michael Hepburn, Brett Lancaster, Cameron Meyer, and Svein Tuft won’t let this one get away easily. The goal may be to put Italian rider Ivan Santaromita into the pink jersey on day one, and it’s hard to see anyone keeping OGE from achieving that goal.
Also bringing a squad of chrono specialists, BMC may have the best shot at surprising GreenEdge, though I think it’s an outside shot. Movistar, led by Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori, would be the third pick. I’d be very surprised to see any other team winning the day. Cadel Evans and Nairo Quintana stand to gain an early advantage over their rivals on GC.
Time trials rarely allow for victors to come from left field, so I am going to eschew picking an unexpected to squad to pull away with the surprise win because I just don’t think it’s going to happen. I do, however, think that Belkin will outperform expectations; Wilco Kelderman is a strong TTist and his support staff is mostly made up of riders who are also good against the clock. Sky, despite being in the rare position of not having a major GC candidate for this Grand Tour, should turn in a strong performance as well. Meanwhile, I suspect that OPQS will perform at a level significantly lower than we normally see from the team in this discipline, as they are missing most of their big engines: sans Tony Martin, Niki Terpstra, and Michal Kwiatkowski, the Belgian squad won’t be as strong against the clock as they usually are.
Early season tuneup races have done their part to offer insight into riders’ form in 2014, but the main event of spring stage racing is now here. The 97th Giro d’Italia begins in Belfast Friday with a team time trial. After two more days on the island, the Giro heads to Italy. Continuing recent trends, a difficult, climber-centric parcours has drawn a climber-heavy field to the race.
Vincenzo Nibali won last year’s edition with a dominant display of ability, finishing with nearly five minutes between himself and the next best placed rider, Rigoberto Uran. Cadel Evans took the final podium place of 2013. To earn their results, all of the riders braved extreme weather that forced a stage cancellation. Ryder Hesjedal (winner in 2012) and Bradley Wiggins both dropped out of the race before it reached its final destination. Difficult conditions are commonplace here, a feature of the race that, like the Italian Alps, must be overcome on the way to victory. Nibali will not be on the startlist this year, but many of the other protagonists of the 96th edition will be returning, as will the Martelltal-climbing stage that was unfortunately cancelled last year. Before I dive further into to the route, a note: VeloHuman will be previewing every stage of the 2014 Giro, so be sure to check back often for daily profiles and picks. The Stage 1 Preview is already up! Also, follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race!
The Route
The Giro d’Italia includes an introductory team time trial, two individual time trials (one essentially a hill climb), eight flat or flattish stages, five medium mountains stages (almost all ending uphill), and five high mountain stages, each with summit finishes. The parcours favors the more climbing-oriented GC contenders over those who sacrifice uphill ability for chrono-power. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at the finish and 3-2-1 at intermediate sprints will benefit the explosive riders and fast finishers.
Stage 8 and the Montecopiolo will be an early test for the GC favorites.
Taking the race one stage at a time: the first week kicks off with a medium distance TTT that will create a few small gaps in GC before a trio of stages for the sprinters (riders will get a day off to travel to Italy for Stage 4). Uphill finishes on Stages 5 and 6 could create some light GC action. A hilly Stage 7 closes out the first week in advance of difficult mountain stages (8 and 9) in the beginning of the second week.
With so many days for the pure climbers, an individual time trial on Stage 12 will weed out a number of would-be GC contenders.
After a rest day, Stages 10 and 11 shouldn’t have many GC implications. The rolling 41.9 kilometer time trial that follows on the 12th stage will; it could be one of the most pivotal tests of the Giro. Stage 13 will likely be another day off the pink jersey hunters, but Stages 14-16 will throw three consecutive summit finishes at the peloton (albeit with a rest day before Stage 16).
The fearsome Monte Zoncolan on Stage 20 guarantees suspense right up to the end.
Riders will save what energy they can on a bumpy but likely uneventful (at least for GC) Stage 17. The Rifugio Panarotta climb that closes out Stage 18 is roughly 16 kilometers at an approximately 8% average grade. Stage 19’s mountain time trial will be 26.8 kilometers of Category 1 climbing. And, of course, Stage 20 will throw down the gauntlet known as Monte Zoncolan, one of the most brutal climbs on the entire pro cycling calendar. 10 kilometers at around 12%, the summit finish will be a final test for the top riders in the race before the sprinters get their last hurrah in Stage 21, a 172 kilometer ride to Trieste and the podium presentation.
There are certainly a few early tests, but the action will really pick up in the second week, and all but two of the final eight stages are rife with extreme slopes and, as such, GC implications. The winner of this race will have to string together quite a few consistently strong performances in a row to come away victorious. With so many uphill finishes, a strong team of supporters will be crucial, as will an ability to avoid misfortune. There really aren’t many stages on which it’s okay for a rider to have a bad day.
The General Classification Contenders
The 2014 Giro d’Italia will kick off with two out-and-out favorites who stand, at least at the moment, head and shoulders above the competition. First and foremost is last year’s Tour de France runner-up, 24-year-old Nairo Quintana. A climbing superstar in a climber’s Grand Tour, Quintana looks just as strong in 2014 as he did in 2013. Quintana has shown that his elite ability to deliver on the mountains day after day after day is going strong in 2014, with nice performances in the Tour de San Luis, Tirreno-Adriatico, and the Volta a Catalunya. With this parcours, he enters the race with the title of favorite. He has had some time off racing, but that didn’t seem to be a problem before last year’s Tour, so I imagine he’ll be ready to roll. What’s more, he’ll have the full support of an elite Movistar team from the opening stage of the race, which was not the case in last year’s Tour de France, where Movistar set out to support Alejandro Valverde before altering their plan midway through the event. Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori will help set up Quintana nicely in the team time trial, and then riders like Eros Capecchi and Igor Anton will be strong workhorses when the road goes skyward.
Quintana’s main challenger looks to be Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez. The Spanish climber has earned quite a collection of Grand Tour podiums in his past few years, but he is still seeking an elusive Grand Tour victory. He came close in this very race in 2012, losing out on the victory and settling for 2nd after losing too many seconds in the final time trial. The 2014 Giro d’Italia is about as well-suited to Purito’s skillset as he could hope for; one of the time trials is basically a king of the hill competition, the other involves rolling ascents that will still favor his characteristics. Purito looked brilliant in the Volta a Catalunya in March, but had a rash of misfortune to follow, suffering injury in a crash at Amstel Gold. The crash derailed his Ardennes campaign and left him with some question marks coming into the Giro, his biggest target of the year. He will have had a few weeks to recover by the time the race kicks off, and the flattish first few days will give him further time to ride back into form, but the concerns are there. Still, Purito is a fighter and I imagine he’ll be among the top riders in the race, especially with bonus seconds on offer. Against a strong Movistar team and a number of other contenders, he’ll need to be gunning for every finish line. Fortunately, he’ll have top lieutenant Daniel Moreno at his side, another danger man for bonus seconds. The pair make a fearsome team and give Katusha a strong 1-2 punch. I think they’ll make the fight for the maglia rosa a close one.
Former Tour de France winner Cadel Evans looked excellent in the Tour Down Under, then rusty at Tirreno-Adriatico, and then back on to form at Pais Vasco. He was the best rider at the Giro del Trentino, facing many of the same names he’ll take on at the Giro d’Italia. He took 3rd in this race last year, and he’s out to prove he has at least another year in the tank. Given his recent performances, I think he’ll put in a strong race, but on this unforgiving profile, he may have a hard time keeping up with elite climbers. He will at least have a strong second in Grand Tour podium finisher Samuel Sanchez, who looks good, if not great yet, this season.
He doesn’t have the name recognition of a former yellow jersey holder or Olympic champion, but Domenico Pozzovivo is my pick for the rider most likely to challenge favorites Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez. The Italian climber put in a Top 10 performance at last year’s Giro, but the real show came at the Vuelta a España, where he notched a 6th overall and displayed a newfound ability to deliver a top-shelf time trial. Always strong uphill, Pozzovivo’s recent discovery of chrono talent, along with a fair bit of general all-around improvement, make him a dangerous contender. He has been hot so far this season, delivering top 10s in every race he has undertaken, including landing 2nd in the Giro del Trentino and then flying to Liege to notch a 5th overall just two days later. The biggest hurdle to overcome will be questionable team support: he will be leading an AG2R squad without many of that outfit’s big names. Still, I think he will challenge the very best in this race.
Rigoberto Uran was the surprise runner-up in the 2013 edition, a result that built on a 7th overall and a young rider jersey from the previous year. No one was able to match Nibali in 2013, but Uran came closest, even beating him to the summit of the Altopiano de Montasio en route to a stage win. He lost big chunks of time on the chrono stages, but performed remarkably well for a rider who started the race as a lieutenant to Bradley Wiggins. He rides for a different team this year; OPQS signed him in the offseason to be their main GC rider. Uran has had a rocky start to 2014, landing 3rd overall against some big names in the Tour of Oman but otherwise delivering forgettable results in Tirreno-Adriatico, Catalunya, and Romandie. Still, the Giro is his main objective and it’s a race he knows, and it is important to remember that he’d done basically nothing last year leading into this race either. He also put in a stellar performance at the final ITT stage in the TdR this weekend, hinting that he may be stronger than his recent GC results would suggest. With a great team of supporters that includes Wout Poels and Thomas de Gendt, I think Uran will find himself at the pointy end of affairs in Italy.
Garmin sends a former Giro winner (as recently as 2012) in Ryder Hesjedal, but climbing specialist Dan Martin is probably the more dangerous rider for the squad. He’s won some serious climbers’ races, but GC success in a Grand Tour has eluded him so far. With the opening few stages taking place in Ireland, this year’s Giro is his main target. Martin’s form was a question mark right up until La Fleche Wallonne late last month, where he dispelled all concerns with a 2nd place performance atop the Mur; he continued to display stellar form in a title defense at Liege, where a late crash ruined an almost certain Top 5 placing, and possibly even an overall victory. However, one-day races are not Grand Tours, and Martin has had a penchant for running into problems in the longer races. Allergies and crashes have derailed his attempts in the past. Still, Martin knows that people question his ability to handle the Grand Tours, and I think he’s ready to silence his critics. The form is there, and unlike many of the other contenders, he doesn’t have too many miles on the tires yet this season. I think a Top 10 is within his reach, especially without many long, flat time trial miles. Teammate Hesjedal will be hoping for a resurgence; he has done very little since his overall victory here in 2012. Flashes of form at a few races last year suggest that he may still have top-level ability somewhere hidden away, but a lack of results so far this year make me skeptical of his chances.
Like cousin Dan Martin, Nicolas Roche is another GC rider looking forward to the start in his home country of Ireland. The 29-year-old really reached another level in last year’s Vuelta, landing in the Top 5 and nabbing a stage victory. He’s been rather quiet so far in 2014, but the Giro is easily the biggest objective of his year. Tinkoff-Saxo has another weapon in Rafal Majka, who finished 7th in 2013. He looks to be rounding into form this year, and he’ll love the mountainous route. With the Roche-Majka 1-2, Tinkoff-Saxo will be very active when the road goes up, and even without many results to go on in 2014, I think the pair will put at least one rider into the Top 10.
Astana won this race last year, and they send 2011 winner (after Contador was stripped of that title) Michele Scarponi this year. He has had a number of good, though not great performances so far in 2014, and was a fine 4th overall in last year’s race. Decent, if not world-beating, showings seem to be the name of the game for the aging Italian climber, and I think it’s likely we’ll get another here. His team does send a very strong team of lieutenants/alternatives to liven up the ascents: Mikel Landa has looked strong this year and young Fabio Aru was great again in the Giro del Trentino. A climber-centric route favors their skillsets.
Former Giro winner Damiano Cunego finally looks to have re-found some form here in 2014, climbing very well in Pais Vasco. Though it has now been a decade since his Grand Tour victory, Cunego is still only 32 years old. The route, and potential bonus seconds, suit the veteran. Lampre teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec may actually be a stronger option. Long an also-ran for the Italian squad, Niemiec has quietly put together some great recent results using his well-rounded skillset; his 6th overall at the 2013 Giro was one of a number of strong showings that year, and he looked great in Trentino this year. Diego Ulissi will likely be hunting stage wins in this race, as he has yet to show the sort of endurance to contend for a Grand Tour GC, but with the Cunego, Niemiec, and Ulissi trio, Lampre has one of the best uphill squads in the race.
The list of fellow Italian cycling stars of days past making renewed attempts at glory has even more names: for one, Ivan Basso, winner of the 2010 Giro d’Italia, is also in attendance. Unlike Scarponi or even Cunego, he has not had many recent showings of form, and he looked off the pace in Trentino and Romandie. I also question his team support. He may struggle to hang with the likes of Purito and Quintana as the uphill miles wear on. Androni Giacottoli’s Franco Pellizotti is yet another aging Italian star looking for another shot at success. 3rd here in 2009, Pellizotti has delivered a handful of decent showings in big races in the last year, including a respectable 9th in Trentino in April. Another respectable showing seems within his reach at the Giro d’Italia, though I don’t expect much of a serious GC challenge.
Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman looked sharp in Paris-Nice this year before a mechanical derailed his overall hopes. He’s a strong time trialist who might prefer a less climber-happy route, but Belkin, with star Robert Gesink sidelined indefinitely for health reasons and Bauke Mollema en route to the Giro, has a lot of faith in their young rider. Climber Steven Kruijswijk is along as well. Trek Factory Racing is also placing their faith in new blood. Robert Kiserlovski is coming into his own, with Top 10s in Tirreno-Adriatico and Catalunya. He was actually 10th in the Giro in 2010. As a rider who struggles against the clock, he’ll appreciate the overall parcours, though even with its rolling profile, Stage 12 will likely put a dent in his chances for General Classification. Kiserlovski is one of a number of strong up-and-comers for Trek; star youth Julian Arredondo is taking on his first Grand Tour and will look to animate the race when the road goes up, though stagehunting is a much more realistic goal for the GT rookie. Riccardo Zoidl is another Grand Tour newcomer, a well-rounded rider who looks sharp this season. Trek may not have a big name in this race, but I think we’re likely to see their kit mixing on a few mountain stages and maybe even on the fringes of the GC Top 10.
Sky’s bid for GC rests even further on the periphery. Kanstantin Siutsou has a Giro Top 10 to his name (in 2009) and Dario Cataldo has come close in the past, with a pair of 12th places on his palmares. Unfortunately for the pair, this is not a parcours that favors TT specialists. Pete Kennaugh is a late scratch due to illness.
Other outsiders include Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, who has not shown much of his uphill ability yet this year, but who will like all the mountains if he can find the form. OGE’s Ivan Santaromita is a talented climber who has not had many opportunities to ride for his own ambitions in his career, but the Australian squad will support him in his home Grand Tour. Finally, Team Colombia’s young Fabio Duarte is coming off a very impressive Giro del Trentino and will hope to make an impression for the Pro Continental squad at the top level.
The Stagehunters
As climber-centric as the parcours appears, there are still a number of stages that look like they will end in sprint finishes, due to the fact that most of the days that do not end in uphill charges look to have profiles that the sprinters can handle. Coastal winds and nerves could play their part, but Stages 2-4, all undertaken before any real climbing challenges, look like contests for the fast men, and this opportunity for bunch gallop finishes so early in the race has drawn a fine list of sprinters. At the same time, the scoring system behind the red points jersey was changed this year to offer more points on flat stages, meaning that the points classification is even more likely to go to a sprinter than in the past, further incentivizing participation by the fast men.
The biggest name among them is Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel, who won four stages at last year’s Tour de France. Giant sends a squad to this race that is 100% devoted to picking up stage wins, with Kittel as their leader and the very talented (and hot in 2014) Luka Mezgec for the stages where Kittel doesn’t make the finish line. This is a surprisingly common occurrence for the young German fast man, who sacrifices a bit of versatility for all that top speed. With the combined Kittel-Mezgec front, it will be very hard to beat GSH in the sprints stages. Kittel might be the favorite for the points classification if that competition did not require you to finish the race, but it does, and he could struggle to hold on in the grueling final week, especially with the Tour as his main objective.
Giacomo Nizzolo, Tyler Farrar, and Fran Ventoso will hope to challenge for sprint victories.
Cannondale’s Elia Viviani is my pick for top non-Giant sprinter, and as an Italian rider with a strong focus on this race, he may be more inclined to stick it out all the way to Trieste. Viviani had a good 2013, but he has been lights out in 2014, beating Mark Cavendish twice in Turkey. It looks like he’s peaking at the perfect time, making him the most likely rider to challenge the GSH sprinting juggernaut. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni has been on fire this year, winning stages all over the map, and he has the top-end speed to challenge Kittel and Viviani. Giacomo Nizzolo looks strong for Trek after a collarbone injury derailed his early spring campaign. Nizzolo can handle tough days in the saddle and will also look to hang on when his fellow fast men start to abandon. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews will lament the lack of more difficult hilly-but-not-too-mountainous stages that might drop his opponents and give him a chance to sprint from a smaller group, but as he showed in the final stage of last year’s Vuelta, he’s quite capable in a traditional sprintfest. Sky’s dynamic duo of Ben Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen are in a similar boat. Of the two, EBH is very fast but Swift looks like the hotter hand right now. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar has had a resurgent 2014, posting nice results in the classics, and he’ll look to find some tangible success here. OPQS sends Alessandro Petacchi, who still looks remarkably fast in the twilight of his career. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari is a constant also-ran these days, but he’ll hope to do better this year. Bardiani-CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli, Androni Giocattoli’s Manuel Belletti, Trek’s Boy van Poppel, Movistar’s Fran Ventoso, and AG2R’s Davide Appollonio can hold their own in the sprints as well.
A number of punchy, aggressive climber types are on the startlist looking for stages where they can go long. Bardiani’s Stefano Pirazzi, winner of last year’s KOM competition, will almost certainly go off the front as often as possible seeking another mountain jersey and breakaway wins. Androni Giocattoli’s Emanuele Sella will also be looking to repeat an aggressive Giro campaign.
Riders like Diego Ulissi and Julian Arredondo have the climbing chops to hang with the GC riders on at least a few stages but may not actually contend for the overall classification, and as such, they’re likely to have opportunities to hunt stage wins; other strong climbers who fall off the pace for GC will surely be doing the same. Also look for Cannondale’s Moreno Moser and Daniele Ratto, Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi, Omega Pharma’s Wouter Poels, Europcar’s Yukiya Arashiro, and Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, either on stages where punchy riders can match the GC men at a hilly finish or jump off the front of the pack.
Lastly, Adriano Malori of Movistar leads a small contingent of time trial specialists looking for success alongside the GC riders in both the team time trial and in Stage 12’s 41.9 kilometer chrono; squad mate Jonathan Castroviejo will be looking for the same. OGE sends a typically elite bunch to challenge in that discipline, with Luke Durbridge, Svein Tuft, Michael Hepburn, Brett Lancaster, and Cam Mayer all strong against the clock. Thomas de Gendt (3rd in the first time trial at last year’s Tour de France) may be focusing on the ITT as his main goal as well.
VeloHuman Favorites
General Classification
Winner: Nairo Quintana Podium: Joaquim Rodriguez, Domenico Pozzovivo Other Top Contenders: Cadel Evans, Michele Scarponi, Rigoberto Uran, Daniel Martin, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche
Points Classification
Winner: Elia Viviani
I will be previewing every stage of the race here at VeloHuman.com, so if you’re looking for picks, make sure to bookmark the page; VeloHuman will bring you the stage profiles, favorites and outsiders for every day of racing. Now that you’ve read the overall race preview, check out the preview and favorites for the TTT on Stage 1! Also, there will be plenty more commentary and analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. If you’re the type who can’t get enough cycling talk, you will be happy you followed. Hope to see you soon!
A great classics season has come to a close. It seems like every race had a thrilling finish, and, amazingly, each top level contest was won by a different rider. As the final stragglers crossed the Liege finish line (check out the VeloHuman Ardennes week recap here, by the way), the pro peloton entered a three month period of pure stage racing, starting with the Tour de Romandie. Six days of stunning scenery running through the French-speaking region of Switzerland, Romandie has seen quite an impressive past few years: every winner since 2011 has gone on to win the Tour de France that year. A good mix of time trials and climbing makes this an attractive option for Grand Tour riders. Chris Froome won last year’s edition in commanding fashion, with top lieutenant Richie Porte placing among the Top 10 as well, one of the pair’s many impressive performances in 2013.
Stages 3 and 5 will bring the GC men to the fore at the 2014 Tour de Romandie.
A short prologue, a final time trial of only 18.5 kilometers, and no summit finishes practically guarantee a close fought race that will come down to seconds in 2014. Stage 1 and Stage 3 may be the best opportunities for the climb-happy types to create gaps, but they’ll need to be aggressive, and they’ll also need to descend well, given the steep run-ins for home they’ll face if they decide to attack on either of those days.
The Contenders
Last year’s victor Chris Froome would enter this race as the big favorite, but this season’s injuries and a very recent chest infection that kept him out of Liege-Bastogne-Liege raise questions. Sky’s insists he’s ready to go. It will all come down to his health, because if he’s recovered, a race in which one third of the stages are time trials is pretty much the perfect setup for a guy who is head and shoulders above his fellow GC types in that discipline. Sky teammate Richie Porte is in a similar boat, recently struggling with health issues but well-suited for the parcours should he find himself in renewed form. If Sky’s all-rounder duo are sufficiently recovered from their ailments, it’s hard to see around the team that has won this race in back-to-back years.
Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali was an 11th hour addition to the startlist, and one of the prime reasons I’m publishing the preview so late in the game! The elite all-rounder will relish the opportunity to face off against Chris Froome before the Tour de France, and he has a stacked team behind him. Nibali had a disappointing classics campaign but the abundance of mountains and time trials make this stage race more his style. Jakob Fuglsang is always a great second for the Italian Grand Tour winner. Janez Brajkovic (who has had a lot of success here through the years) and Tanel Kangert are additional members of a very dangerous squad.
Coming off a podium performance (and a stage win) at the Volta a Catalunya and a decent showing (6th) at the Vuelta a Pais Vasco, Tejay van Garderen is a top contender in a race with two days of time trialing. I found him a bit underwhelming in that discipline, and in general, at a Pais Vasco race that seemed to suit him, but he’s had a bit of time to rest and he’s building towards a July peak anyway, so I see him as a strong candidate for the overall victory here. Peter Velits is an excellent time trialist who was 9th in a Paris-Nice without an ITT, showing great climbing form in 2014—he’ll be a good second for BMC.
America’s other top 25-year-old all-rounder is another top contender here: Garmin’s Andrew Talansky will also appreciate the overall parcours. He has stated that this race is one of his biggest targets of the year, and he already has a history of success in the event—in 2012, he was 2nd overall to the man who the Tour de France that year, Bradely Wiggins. He rounded into form this year with a 7th overall at Catalunya. His combination of focus, tailored skillset, and past results puts him among the favorites. Garmin also sends Tom Danielson, 4th in last year’s edition, and the excellent Rohan Dennis, who is demonstrating a knack for success in shorter stage races early in his career.
Much like the aforementioned group, AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud will be a tough opponent in a race in which time trialing is likely to be a major factor. His 3rd overall at Pais Vasco came on the back of a top-shelf day against the clock. Finding yourself on a podium ahead of Tejay van Garderen and Alejandro Valverde is no mean feat. He should continue his stellar form into Romandie. Actually winning a big race is a skill he is still finetuning, but with an open field and a parcours well-suited to his abilities, Peraud could start winning soon. He was 6th at Romandie in 2013, and looks poised to better that result this year.
Katusha’s Simon Spilak was runner-up in this race in 2013 (and he won a stage to boot) and overall victor in 2010. This is favored territory for the Slovenian all-rounder, and he’s coming off an excellent Pais Vasco, in which he nabbed 4th overall. Short stage races with a good mix of mountains and time trials are his bread and butter, and I see him fighting among some of the bigger name riders this week.
Time trial mileage will play its part here, but so will bonus seconds, and Lampre’s Rui Costa combines a decent time trial with an elite stage-winning/bonus-second-earning jump. He had an extremely disappointing Ardennes campaign, crashing in two of three races and coming away without a big result. However, he will be fresher than he might have been had he raced a full Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the lack of victories in the rainbow stripes will motivate the always aggressive rider from Portugal. He has been 3rd in back-to-back Tours de Romandie, and he has won back-to-back Tours de Suisse, suggesting he knows what it takes to succeed in Switzerland.
The OPQS squad lining up for Romandie is very impressive, and full of potential contenders. Rigoberto Uran is not much of a time trialist, but he’s hard to beat on the slopes, with an explosive kick that he’ll likely be looking to use in Stages 1 and 3. Uran started off the year nicely by taking 3rd in the Tour of Oman, but then he seemed to fade a bit at Tirreno-Adriatico and the Volta a Catalunya. He skipped the Ardennes Classics this year to train, focused heavily on preparing for his main 2014 goal, the Giro d’Italia. He may be low on recent race mileage, but he’ll be rested and motivated to prove he’s back on form. Teammate Michal Kwiatkowski was a late addition to the startlist, and a major wildcard for OPQS. On paper, Romandie is perfectly suited to the wunderkind: he excels in time trials and he’s a very fast finisher who can get serious time bonuses, both skills that give him a leg up here. The only question for Kwiatkowski is whether he will be able to contest a race like this after going full-throttle in the Ardennes. He could challenge to win the whole thing, or he could just focus on stages, or maybe he’s just here to ride for his teammates. Tony Martin may be a legitimate GC contender with so much riding on the time trials. He can climb surprisingly well (he has always performed at a top level in the Tour of Beijing, despite a lack of chrono miles there). He was runner-up in 2011 to Cadel Evans, and with such a strong team to help on the climbs, he could be a serious challenger here. Thomas de Gendt is another good time trialist who is still looking for the climbing legs he once had; should he find them, he’s another nice alternative.
FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot impressed me with his performance in the Basque Country, even if the result was merely a 9th place. After Contador blew the doors off the contest on the first day, the race for the rest of the Top 10 essentially came down to hanging with the pack on the mountain stages and delivering a strong time trial on the final stage. Pinot did both. I think he’s rediscovered some of the form he seemed to lack in 2014. With a team full of opportunists like Kenny Elissonde, Alexandre Geniez, and Jeremy Roy, FDJ can send riders up the road to pressure on the other contenders.
Beñat Intxausti was 5th in Romandie in 2011. He hasn’t shown much in 2014, generally riding in support of one of Movistar’s bigger names, but he has a knack for succeeding when Quintana and Valverde aren’t around (he won last year’s Tour of Beijing ahead of the likes of Dan Martin and Rui Costa, and took a stage and 8th overall at the Giro earlier in 2013). Ion Izagirre put in a strong time trial at Pais Vasco, and his recent showings in that discipline (which helped him nab 2nd overall at last year’s Tour de Pologne), combined with proven climbing legs, make him another great option for the always strong Movistar team. With Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka, Tinkoff-Saxo sends a powerful 1-2 punch. Neither rider has shown much yet this year, so form is something of an unknown, and I’m not sure the TT-heavy parcours suits them, but they’ll be a tough team to plan against on the climbs. Cannondale’s Ivan Basso has had a slow start to the year but with the Giro around the corner I imagine he’ll pick it up here. Mathias Frank will lead home team IAM Cycling in his home country of Switzerland. 2nd overall at the Criterium International, he’s showing an improved time trial, and he’s always been a strong climber. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam will hope to make an impression with the rare opportunity to ride for his own interests. Trek’s hopes are in the hands of young Riccardo Zoidl, and I’m excited to see what he can do in this race.
Stagehunters
With a pair of days against the clock and a few stages that could end in bunch sprints, the Tour de Romandie is attractive some fine stagehunters. Marcel Kittel headlines the sprinters. He’s easily the class of the bunch, and he looks strong as usual this year after a dominant third Scheldeprijs victory early this month. Though he may not be daunted by the other sprinters on the startlist, he will have to work hard to make it over some bumps in the road, as every massed-start stage in this race has a few hills along the way to the finish line. Fortunately for them, Giant-Shimano has the fast-rising Luka Mezgec for the harder days if Marcel Kittel should struggle. He waited until the final day of WorldTour racing in 2013 to take his first victor at that level, but this year he has already racked up three WT stage wins, dominating the sprints in Catalunya. If Giant-Shimano doesn’t take a victory in Romandie, it’ll be a pretty big disappointment.
Taking on the Giant-Shimano sprinting juggernaut will be Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, Belkin’s Moreno Hofland, Katusha’s Alexey Tsatevich, AG2R’s Davide Appolonio, and Lampre’s Robert Ferrari.
Time trial specialists (beyond the GC guys) include world champ Tony Martin (who may or may not contest the overall), Movistar’s Alex Dowsett and Jonathan Castroviejo, and Orica-GreenEdge’s Svein Tuft and Michael Hepburn. The first day’s prologue is short enough that it might favor a powerful sprinter: don’t be surprised to see the likes of Marcel Kittel or Giacomo Nizzolo (2nd in the very short prologue in 2012) give it a go.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen Top 10: Andrew Talansky, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Simon Spilak, Rigoberto Uran, Thibaut Pinot, Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowski
I’ll be tweeting more live analysis during the race, so follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter! The next race on the calendar is a big one: the Giro d’Italia is just around the corner, and there will be previews of both the overall race and each stage, so be sure to tune in. Hope to see you then!
La Fleche Wallonne ended in typically epic fashion this Wednesday, with an uphill battle royale among some heavyweight talents. Michal Kwiatkowski made a strong move up the Mur de Huy, displaying impressive climbing legs on the legendary gradient. Dan Martin charged past the surging Pole further up the slope, showing the form we’ve been waiting to see this season. But it was Alejandro Valverde who made the final decisive attack as the finish line approached, and the Movistar team leader held on for the victory ahead of the pair. Amstel Gold and La Fleche Wallonne have offered their insights, and now it’s on to the final chapter of the Ardennes trilogy. Liège-Bastogne-Liège (which I am simplifying to Liege-Bastogne-Liege for ease-of-typing and searchability reasons) is the 4th Monument classic of the year, known as “La Doyenne,” or “The Oldest,” because it is the elder statesman of the five legendary one-day races. The finale of the Ardennes week runs from Liege, Belgium, to Bastogne, and then back again, finishing a few kilometers from where the race began, in the town of Ans. With 262.9 kilometers of seemingly neverending ups and downs, Liege offers no respite, and nowhere to hide.
Climbs like the Cote de Saint-Roch (1 km at 11.1% average grade) and the Cote de Stockeu (1 km at 12.4% average grade) deliver early doses of pain that are sure to stick with the peloton as things get more and more brutal towards the end of the day. At kilometer 218 of 261, La Redoute (2.0 km at 8.9% average grade) will blow the pack apart, and then the Cote de La Roche-aux-Faucons (1.5 km at 9.3%) at kilometer 243 and Cote de Saint-Nicolas (1.2 km at 8.6%) at kilometer 257 guarantee a flurry of attacks as the riders make their bids for glory with the uphill finish line finally approaching. In last year’s edition, uphill action late in the race put a small group of top talents out front, and Daniel Martin attacked from this group in the final kilometers to take the victory ahead of Joaquim Rodriguez.
To win Liege-Bastogne-Liege, a rider must have the ascending abilities to make it up all the inclines at the front of the pack, but also the endurance to survive a very long, Monumental day in the saddle. A fast finish can help, as past editions have occasionally come down to a drag race between a small group. Like all five Monuments, Liege tests riders on a wide range of skills, and it is unforgiving to those who aren’t in top shape. The final race of the Ardennes Classics, and indeed of the Spring Classics season as a whole, it guarantees excitement as riders and teams line up for their last shot at success in the early one-day contests.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde was already showing elite form before he took La Fleche Wallonne on Wednesday. Continental-level victories exhibited his strength early in the year, and his climbing legs were second to only Alberto Contador in Pais Vasco. With his dominant display atop the Mur de Huy this week (video below), Valverde made a loud statement ahead of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, which he has already won twice in his career. La Doyenne may suit him even better than La Fleche Wallonne, playing to his endurance and also to his fast finish, which puts pressure on his opponents. He has the form, a skillset tailored to the parcours, and a proven ability to win this race, making him a favorite to take yet another Monument victory this Sunday, even against such high caliber opposition. Ion Izagirre and Benat Intxausti, excellent climbers in their own right, make Movistar’s bid for glory all the more impressive.
Daniel Martin‘s condition was hazy right up until Wednesday’s race, as questionable form and knee pain cast doubts over his chances for La Fleche Wallonne and the defense of his Liege title this weekend; he dispelled concerns with his explosive charge up the Mur de Huy for 2nd place, and now finds himself right back in the discussion. The Irish climber has a habit of shining on the brightest stages. With his Monument defense this weekend and the Giro right around the corner, Martin is peaking at the absolute perfect moment, when many of his rivals may be starting to flag after more race-heavy early seasons. Garmin teammate Tom-Jelte Slagter is on amazing form and is a real contender, especially after a very impressive 5th place atop the Mur, though a strong result in a race this long and challenging would be a major step up for the 24-year-old. Ryder Hesjedal (who was instrumental in securing Martin’s victory last year) is here as well. Garmin will look to animate the race on the late hills, and I’d bet one of their top guns will be in the mix.
2014 Amstel Gold winner and former Liege victor Philippe Gilbert had a disappointing day at La Fleche Wallonne, but I’m not sure how much to read into his 10th place. A late crash in that race shook up the order on the road, and Gilbert was never really in a great position on the Mur; difficult to say how things might have gone had he been in a better spot to start, and either way, a Top 10 is hardly a bad performance. Liege presents myriad opportunities for a vintage Gilbert getaway. With an impressive team backing him that includes Samuel Sanchez, I see Gilbert as practically locked in for another Top 10 performance; winning ahead of Grand Tour style climbers will be a tall order, but the 2014 version of the former World Champ looks more up to the challenge than he has in a while.
After his Volta a Catalunya win, the 2014 season was looking bright for Joaquim Rodriguez, who was honed in on trying to finally win Liege-Bastogne-Liege after two past runner-up performances without a victory. However, his crash in the Amstel Gold Race last Sunday left him with bruised ribs, and injury question marks for the main event this Sunday. He did not clear up concerns at La Fleche Wallonne, crashing again and finishing a few minutes off the pace. On the kind of form he displayed last month, Purito would be a top favorite for Liege. As it stands, he is a bit of an unknown. I figure that a few more days of recovery will be enough to at least see him contend. Daniel Moreno and Alexandr Kolobnev (2nd in 2010) will be strong alternatives as usual for Katusha.
5th at the Amstel Gold Race and 3rd at La Fleche Wallonne, Michal Kwiatkowski is inching closer to the marquee victory he has been hunting so doggedly this season. Liege could see it happen. Kwiatkowski’s many tools make him an excellent candidate. He also has two very strong teammates for the hills in Wout Poels and Jan Bakelants. He is very good on the steep stuff, but maybe even better at surviving the steep stuff and then powering past his rivals as things start to level out. The way he has been riding this season, it is hard to see the tiny Polish champion not among the very best at La Doyenne. Like Valverde, he has the luxury of possessing a feared sprint, which can force rivals to attack. I’m excited to see what he can do in the race that is probably his biggest target so far.
Simon Gerrans took Wednesday off, which may leave the 10th place finisher in last year’s Liege fresher than his rivals. That freshness and a knack for both long-range strikes and short-range top speed make him a major threat at Liege. The Milano-Sanremo winner is a proven contender on the exceptionally long days. Orica-GreenEdge always fields excellent squads on hilly profiles and Sunday’s race is no different: Daryl Impey, Ivan Santaromita, Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, and Simon Clarke excel on a parcours like this. I’m fairly certain we’ll see a few green and yellow jerseys in the pack as the peloton hits the final climbs.
World Champ Rui Costa is a major rider to watch at Liege. He has looked okay in his Ardennes campaign so far, among the top 20 at Amstel (where I think Lampre may have been riding for Damiano Cunego at first) and in the pack at La Fleche Wallonne in support of Diego Ulissi before a crash broke his wheel and ended his time among the leaders. I imagine the strong duo of Ulissi and Cunego (two-time Liege winner) will be backing the man in the rainbow jersey this Sunday in a race that will allow him to utilize his keen sense for finding the perfect launching pad for an attack.
Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert returned to the Ardennes Classic limelight after some time on questionable form with his runner-up performance at Amstel Gold. Then, despite rumors of a knee injury, he landed 6th at La Fleche Wallonne. Clearly, he is on form in 2014. 10th is as high as he’s placed in the longer, less forgiving Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but the shape he’s in this year could see him better that result. He’s up against some stiff competition in the Ardennes finale, but he’s been very surprising so far, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he would continue to be. Tony Gallopin, who won 2013’s Clasica San Sebastian with a well-executed long-range strike, could thrive on the undulating profile.
Vincenzo Nibali has been up with the leaders towards the business end of the two Ardennes races we’ve witnessed so far, but he has not really contended at either finish line. I think that will change Sunday. Nibali is a Grand Tour winner who sets his sights high, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege is an important goal of his for the season—more so than Amstel or La Fleche Wallonne. I think a powerful attack is all but guaranteed, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him among the top contenders in the final kilometers of the race. Jakob Fuglsang, Maxim Iglinskiy (a former winner here), and Enrico Gasparotto will provide more options for Astana: 2013 Giro-winner Nibali will lead a strong team in this race. Speaking of Grand Tours, 2013 Tour de France winner Chris Froome will be at the startline as well. It’s unusual that I wait this long in a preview to mention his name, but the GC star will be hoping to try his luck for Sky at Liege on Sunday. He doesn’t have much of a resume in the Ardennes, and he’s not much of a one-day racer generally, but La Doyenne favors high endurance riders with strong climbing abilities, and Froome combines those traits better than anyone in the sport today. Richie Porte and David Lopez are able lieutenants for Sky’s squad.
Belkin’s Bauke Mollema took 7th at Amstel Gold and then 4th at La Fleche Wallonne, clearly rounding into top shape at just the right moment in 2014. He was 6th at Liege in 2012, and heading up Belkin’s strong squad he’s got a great chance of improving on that result this year. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger hasn’t managed to land a great result so far in the first two Ardennes Classics, but Liege will probably suit him better, as I think he can survive the high mileage better than most. Nicolas Roche could be a valuable second.
AG2R’s Carlos Betancur struggled at La Fleche Wallonne and is likely still recovering from his knee injury; should he make drastic strides back to good health before this weekend, he could contend, but it seems like a long shot for now. Top-notch solo artist Tom Dumoulin and quality climber Warren Barguil both look like solid outsiders for Giant-Shimano. Andy Schleck suffered injury in an Amstel Gold crash and fell off the pace at La Fleche Wallonne, which doesn’t inspire much confidence for the more difficult Monument to come, but brother Frank was looking good until he fell off his bike in a late crash, and could have better fortune here. Trek teammate Julian Arredondo showed off his nice form with an 11th place in that race, and could play the role of joker. Cyril Gautier, Pierre Rolland, Tommy Voeckler, and Yukiya Arashira are well under the radar, but they are all aggressive, versatile riders who could go off the front at any time for Europcar. Arashiro is having a particularly fine spring. 260 kilometers of neverending climbs and breakneck pace do not treat outsiders kindly, but well-timed attacks can wreak havoc in this race, even against the cream of the climbing crop. Ever unpredictable weather conditions could add to the opportunities for surprises.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Alejandro Valverde Podium: Daniel Martin, Philippe Gilbert Other Top Contenders: Michal Kwiatkowski, Joaquim Rodriguez, Vincenzo Nibali, Rui Costa, Simon Gerrans, Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger
The new VeloHuman Twitter account will be quite active with live analysis of Sunday’s race, so be sure to follow @VeloHuman for more. I’ll also be previewing the Tour de Romandie in just a few days, so check back in soon!
The first of three Ardennes Classics went to former World Champ Philippe Gilbert on Sunday after he put the hammer down on his favorite hunting ground, the Cauberg. His uphill strike was so powerful that not even the likes of Alejandro Valverde or Michal Kwiatkowski could reel him in over the final flat 1.8 kilometers of the Amstel Gold Race. Jelle Vanendert made a valiant move past a chasing group for 2nd, and Simon Gerrans outsprinted Valverde and Kwiatkowski for 3rd. A possible bunch sprint was nullified by the power of the big favorites up front: the pack could not survive the impressive climbing skills of Gilbert and Co. on the Cauberg. Anyone who struggled on the Cauberg will have an even harder time on Wednesday, as the peloton takes on the mighty Mur de Huy at La Flèche Wallonne (which I am generally styling as La Fleche Wallonne because accented vowels and easy-to-write, searchable internet text are not great friends).
At 199 kilometers, La Fleche Wallonne is shorter than some of the other classics the peloton has taken on this season. That opens it up a bit to riders who don’t specialize as heavily in the overlong spring races. Still, the route is peppered with grueling ascents in rapid succession, including two trips up the Mur de Huy (1.3 km, 9.3% average grade) before the third and final ascent at the end the race. The group that makes it to the bottom of the final climb will be very much reduced by the day’s many challenges. Unlike the Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallonne has no 1.8 kilometer drag after its decisive climb. The Mur is also steeper than the Cauberg. This is a race that goes to explosive climbers, period. Last year’s Top 10 was a who’s who of ascending heavyweights (figuratively, as all of them are, of course, quite light of frame). Daniel Moreno was strongest on the day, with Sergio Henao, Carlos Betancur, and Daniel Martin hot on his heels. Purito, Valverde, and Mollema weren’t far behind. La Fleche Wallonne 2013 was decided in the final moments on the climb to the top of the Mur, and it’s hard to see a different script for 2014, though there will be some other riders playing the roles this time around. Before I name my top names, a note: as usual, I’ll be tweeting plenty of analysis live during the contest, so be sure to follow @VeloHuman for more real-time thoughts on the race!
The Contenders
Philippe Gilbert won the race in 2011 and podiumed in 2012. He seemed to have lost a bit of a form for 2013, but his victories at Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold this year have catapulted him back into the conversation. He played his cards just right at Amstel, exploding up the climb and then hanging on over a not insignificant distance. A crucial component in his victory was an attack from teammate Samuel Sanchez, who will join him again at La Fleche Wallonne, making BMC an even tougher opponent for the rest of the pack. Still, with such a brutal climb to close out the race, even Gilbert’s punchy legs will be put on the limit trying to hold off some Grand Tour talent. He will also no longer benefit from the hesitation that he’s gotten from his rivals in the past several month of reduced form; everyone knows Gilbert is back now.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is another past winner of the race, and he will certainly be among the favorites to contend for this year’s La Fleche Wallonne. The bookies’ favorite for Amstel Gold finished 4th on the day after being unable to follow Gilbert on the final climb, though I do wonder if a part of his failure to cover the Belgian’s attack was indecision and hesitation, as he, Simon Gerrans, and Michal Kwiatkowski did not react immediately to the move on the Cauberg. He’ll get a chance at revenge on Wednesday. Without the injury question marks of some of the other big contenders, I imagine Valverde will occupy at least one of the spots on the podium for this race. Mountain goat teammates like Ion Izagirre and Benat Intxausti make his bid for victory a formidable one.
Were it not for the aforementioned health issues confusing things, there are three riders I might favor among Gilbert and Valverde; unfortunately, each comes with unknowns. First and foremost is Joaquim Rodriguez. Katusha has dominated this race in the past two years: Purito won in 2012, and Daniel Moreno won in 2013. Both riders are perfectly suited to the finish on the Mur de Huy, and more than capable of making it there without too much trouble. However, Rodriguez crashed out of yesterday’s Amstel Gold and was immediately taken to the hospital for further examination. Reports indicate that he did not suffer any serious injury, but there was also talk that he was a bit dizzy after going down. None of this inspires confidence. It doesn’t help that he is really targeting Sunday’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and next month’s Giro, and will probably be willing to take La Fleche Wallonne easy if he thinks it’s necessary for recovery. Were it not for the question marks, Purito’s form this year and his skillset might have made him my overall favorite, but as it stands, it’s hard to put that kind of confidence in him. His teammate Moreno, winner last year, may be a better choice, with a similar skillset and a proven ability to win the race. Moreno was 9th in Amstel yesterday and 3rd behind Contador and Quintana in the summit finish fourth stage of Tirreno-Adriatico this year, so he’s looking strong to defend his title here in 2014.
2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner Daniel Martin is another would-be favorite with injury question marks. He pulled out of Amstel Gold early with knee pain. He has stated that he does not think it will be a lasting issue, but like Purito, Martin is targeting Liege and the Giro and he has a capable teammate (in Tom-Jelte Slagter) to take up the reigns if he decides to take it easy. Were his health not in question, La Fleche Wallonne’s finish would be ideal for the Irishman, who came in 4th last year (he missed a podium place by about half a centimeter), and probably would have done better had he not been somewhat out of position at the start of the final climb. Should Martin not be up for it, Garmin will turn turn to the hot hand in Slagter. He was disappointing at Amstel Gold, but the young rider might have a bit more left in the tank at the end of the shorter race on Wednesday. Ryder Hesjedal was not long ago one of the better Ardennes riders in the peloton and he’ll be in attendance as well.
AG2R’s Carlos Betancur is the other injury-bitten top rider in the race. He was 3rd here last year and he is on fire in 2014. Unfortunately, he’s also been suffering from a knee issue lately, and it’s very much unclear what his status is for La Fleche Wallonne. He did not contend at Amstel Gold, but he didn’t get dropped off the pace right away either. His tools (perfect for this race) and body of work put him among my top 10 riders in this race, as I think he’s quite capable of winning, but it’s hard to say whether he’ll be able to put all that ability to good use. Romain Bardet will be the other option for AG2R, and the way he’s been climbing this year, he could feature in the finale.
Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS was 5th in the race last year. Given his blazing form in 2014, I’d imagine we’ll see him in the vanguard on the Mur again this year, but the do-it-all 23-year-old might find the finish line just a bit too steep for his liking. As versatile as he is, he may be looking to Sunday’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege as a prize more suited to his talents. Still, anything is possible for Kwiatkowski. OPQS has another strong card to play in Wout Poels, who has been climbing very well this year and could take a crack at the final ascent himself. Jan Bakelants makes another strong supporter.
Lampre’s three-pronged attack was unable to make much of a mark on the Amstel Gold Race, but I think they’re better suited to La Fleche Wallonne: Diego Ulissi is a star on these finishes, and his biggest weakness so far in his career has been long days in the saddle. Significantly shorter than its Ardennes brethren, La Fleche Wallonne is perfect for Ulissi, and he is targeting this race heavily. He came to the base of the Cauberg with the pack at Amstel Gold, which suggests to me that he is in shape and primed for success in a race more tailored to his talents. Teammate and World Champ Rui Costa could also give things a go. The Mur might be a bit too steep for his liking, but victory in this race requires perfect timing and Costa has one of the sharpest minds for strategy in the entire peloton. Damiano Cunego has a pair of podium performances in La Fleche Wallonne on his resume, but even with his surprise 2014 form I’m not sure he can hang with the best in the bunch anymore, especially not after an anonymous showing in an Amstel Gold Race that suited him better.
I had questions about Bauke Mollema‘s form coming into Amstel Gold, but his 7th place in that race answered them for me. La Fleche Wallonne puts the spotlight more squarely on the GC climber types, and Mollema has the kind of climbing legs to contend for Grand Tours. He also has a very strong finish and a very aggressive approach, which are key in this race, and they’ve given him back-to-back Top 10s here in the past. I would put Mollema among the best value bets for a podium in this race, just a few steps outside the spotlight but very capable of contending. Talented climbers Lars Petter Nordhaug and Laurens Ten Dam make a fine support squad. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger was unable to defend his Amstel Gold title, but like Mollema, he is a Grand Tour climber with a strong finish. Though he did not feature among the contenders, he was among the Top 20 on Sunday, and the vicious Mur de Huy gives him another chance at victory. Teammate Nicolas Roche is building up to the Giro and could also make a move.
Astana again brings their talent-packed squad to the startline; Enrico Gasparotto was their best placed finisher at Amstel, coming in 8th, but Jakob Fuglsang looked strong in a breakaway and Vincenzo Nibali came to the base of the Cauberg with the pack. Nibali was 8th in La Fleche Wallonne in 2012 and he has the uphill ability to land another top result. Fuglsang isn’t well-known for explosiveness but he’s certainly got the climber’s physique. The Mur might be too much for Gasparotto and Iglinskiy but they’ll be valuable teammates as well.
Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert suddenly roared back into relevance with a runner-up performance at Amstel Gold, where he chased heavier favorites up the Cauberg and sailed past many of them on his way to 2nd place. He has a pair of La Fleche Wallonne top 10s to his name as well, so he certainly deserves a look for Wednesday’s race. Teammate Tony Gallopin is another good climber and one-day rider, and Jurgen Van Den Broeck nabbed the final spot in the top 10 in 2012.
Simon Gerrans of Orica-GreenEdge won’t be riding this race (the finish is a bit too steep for him), so they send punchy Ivan Santaromita, 2012 runner-up Michael Albasini, aggressive Pieter Weening and Simon Clark, and Simon and Adam Yates to represent their interests. No favorites among them, but plenty of riders to animate the race. Trek’s Julian Arredondo has had an impressive start to the season and will like the finish. Andy Schleck crashed out of Amstel Gold, but he should make the start with brother Frank, who has shown signs of life in 2014. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank is a good climber who will be riding for his own interests for once. Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin and Warren Barguil will hope to make an impact. Sky’s best bets are probably Mikel Nieve and David Lopez. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is still looking for success in 2014. Daniel Navarro of Cofidis is a strong climber with a decent supporting cast. They’ll all have their work cut out for them in a race with a finish that tends to weed out long shots, but a number of the contenders are facing injury concerns, which could open doors at La Fleche Wallonne 2014.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Philippe Gilbert Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Moreno Other Top Contenders: Joaquim Rodriguez, Diego Ulissi, Bauke Mollema, Vincenzo Nibali, Michal Kwiatkowski, Carlos Betancur, Daniel Martin
After an exciting appetizer at Brabantse Pijl (won by a resurgent Philippe Gilbert ahead of an impressive Michael Matthews), the week of races known as the Ardennes Classics is here! The Amstel Gold Race kicks off on Sunday. The undulating 250 kilometer jaunt through the Limburg province is perhaps the biggest cycling event in the Netherlands. The course has changed in recent years, its finish moving from the summit of the legendary Cauberg to a flat straightaway about 1.8 kilometers after the top of the climb. The punchy riders will still attempt to get away on the last bump in the road, but with more room to bring back escapees, things are more likely to come together for a sprint among a larger group of survivors now. Still, to make it to this finish at the front of the pack, a rider has to be seriously capable on the steep stuff (like the 1.1 kilometer, 8.8% average Eyserbosweg with 20 km to go), and a great bike handler as well: the journey from starting city Maastricht to the finish line in Valkenburg is notorious for its challenging twists and tight turns, and after 250 kilometers, keeping one’s concentration through the corners is not easy.
Last year, Roman Kreuziger was allowed to bridge into a break up the road with 20 kilometers remaining. He attacked from the group, and held on for victory. Kreuziger went on to land a number of great results in 2014, including a 5th place in the Tour de France, and looking back, it seems funny that a rider of his caliber was given the chance to ride ahead, but prior to Amstel, he had not picked up the results we’ve come to expect from him since. I don’t think the successful long range attack scenario will be repeated this year. For one, it’s not often that a rider as good as Kreuziger flies under the radar like he did early in 2014. Second, now that it’s happened once, the big favorites will act to stop it from happening again. I think it’s more likely this race comes down to the final kilometers.
The Contenders
Though the new parcours opens Amstel up for a number of different kinds of riders (which makes previews and predictions quite difficult, by the way!), I see three favorites for the race, all of them great climbers, high endurance riders, and very fast finishers. Favored most among the bookmakers is Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, who has flown through the early season, racking up victories in a number of Continental races, including a Roma Maxima win against some big names. The Ardennes star was 2nd last year, winning the gallop to the line behind the victorious Kreuziger. He’s an excellent climber who won’t struggle with the bumps in the road, he has Grand Tour winning endurance, he’s a quality bike handler, and he packs a powerful sprint. This race is tailormade for his skillset, and he can win it either with a late attack or at the head of a group of fast finishers. Movistar backs his effort with the climb-happy likes of Ion Izagirre and Beñat Intxausti.
OPQS sends a typically powerhouse squad to support the fast-rising Michal Kwiatkowski, who took 4th in the race in 2013. He’s only gotten stronger since then, taking a big win at Strade Bianche earlier in the year and landing 2nd overall in Pais Vasco last week. Perhaps even more relevant than his runner-up in GC in that race was his taking of the points jersey thanks to five top 3 finishes in the race’s six stages. A number of those placings came due to his top-notch sprint. Still, despite his constant displays of amazing talent, Kwiatkowski has yet to actually pull off a WorldTour win, with a resume full of near misses so far in his very young career. The first one is always a challenge, but this race really suits his skillset, and OPQS sends a stellar group of versatile riders to help. Jan Bakelants, Wout Poels, newcomer Julian Alaphilippe, and Pieter Serry are all good on the rolling hills. It’s hard to think of a better teammate to ride tempo than world ITT champ Tony Martin. Zdenek Stybar is a wildcard who, despite not having a resume in this race, is one of the best on a challenging road map. Don’t be surprised to see him break for the line as the kilometers wind down.
The third of my three favorites for Amstel Gold 2014 is the man who won in 2010 and 2011, and came in 6th and 5th in 2012 and 2013: BMC’s Philippe Gilbert. I probably don’t need to point out that he is no longer the rider who won the Ardennes triple in 2011 or the World Championship race in 2012. Still, he’s coming off a great demonstration of form at this week’s Brabantse Pijl, where he outsprinted the extremely quick Michael Matthews only a few minutes after going deep into the red trying to bridge a gap to a late breakaway. Amstel is a race he knows how to win: the Cauberg is perhaps his favorite hunting ground, launching him into the rainbow jersey in 2012. It’s hard to see him not at the front of the race in the home stretch, and then it is just a question of whether he can escape from the pack on the final slope, or outsprint whoever remains at the end. Greg Van Avermaet makes a fine second. Samuel Sanchez (7th in 2012) is another card for BMC to play.
Roman Kreuziger again leads Tinkoff-Saxo. He won’t be allowed up the road the way he was in 2013, but he’s still a great contender to be there at the end. His status as a marked man did not stop him from landing a podium performance in the Clasica San Sebastian last year.
Joaquim Rodriguez was 2nd in this race in 2011, but the new finish is less tailored to his uphill ability. He has a quick sprint, but he’ll have to be in pretty select company in the final kilometer to be a favorite, and I’m not sure the Cauberg is long enough to force that sort of selection. Teammate Daniel Moreno may actually be a better option. He followed up his La Fleche Wallonne victory last year with a number of great results that showed his excellent finishing move. This pair works extremely well together, and at least one of them should be fighting for a top result. Alexandr Kolobnev has been among the Top 10 here in the past.
Orica-GreenEdge is another squad with a few excellent options. Simon Gerrans took 3rd here last year and in 2011. He was on fire at the opening of the season in the Tour Down Under, but illness derailed his early spring campaign, leaving him unable to contest the biggest race he’s ever won, Milano-Sanremo. A fine showing in Brabantse Pijl suggests he’s back on the level; he was very active in that race, off the front for a huge chunk of time. Like Valverde and Kwiatkowski, he has the climbing legs to handle the dogfight sure to ensue on the Cauberg, and a very fast sprint to challenge for victory among the survivors. Teammate Michael Matthews will hope to be one of those survivors, and it’s quite possible that the very capable climber, who just nabbed 2nd at Brabantse Pijl, will be there at the end. If he is, he’s one of the very best sprinters on the startlist, fast enough to win the final stage of the Vuelta 2013, a sprinters’ battle royale. He rode well in Pais Vasco, picking up a stage win, and was climbing at a very high level in Paris-Nice. Matching the likes of Valverde and Gilbert up the Cauberg will be a tall order, but I’m not counting him out. Daryl Impey, Simon Clark, Michael Albasini, and Pieter Weening give Orica-GreenEdge a team tailored perfectly for these rolling hills.
Sky’s Ben Swift is the other top-notch sprinter with a decent shot at hanging on over the Cauberg. If either Matthews or Swift are in the lead group in the final kilometer, it’s hard to see anyone outgunning them to the finish line. Swift showed at Milano-Sanremo that extremely long, grueling days of racing are within his power–he took 3rd in that race ahead of some real sprinting class. Then, in the Vuelta a Pais Vasco, he hung on over some very difficult climbs to take victory in the 5th stage ahead of none other than my two biggest favorites for Amstel Gold, Alejandro Valverde and Michael Kwiatkowski. It’s all happening very fast for Swift, who dealt with painful injuries over the past two seasons. Now that he’s suddenly back to winning ways, it’s hard to predict just how much he can do. Amstel will be a great test. Meanwhile, Geraint Thomas is firing on all cylinders this year. Sky has yet another contender in Edvald Boasson Hagen, who, despite lacking experience in the Ardennes Classics, has the all-rounder skillset to be a dangerous player here.
Garmin packs a strong 1-2 punch in Tom-Jelte Slagter and Daniel Martin. Slagter has been on fire in 2014, winning two stages at Paris-Nice and climbing very well in Pais Vasco. He’s an explosive rider who loves the short steep climbs and can finish quickly as well. Dan Martin has started his season later than usual in an attempt to time his peak just right for the Ardennes Classics and the Giro d’Italia. With a flat finish, Amstel is probably worst-suited of the three Ardennes races for Martin, but the Liege-Bastogne-Liege defending champ and 2011 runner-up in Lombardia is made for long, rolling parcours like this one. He looked okay in Catalunya and in this week’s Brabantse Pijl. La Fleche Wallonne and Liege might be a bigger goal, but the Cauberg could see him test his legs. Ryder Hesjedal is here too, and versatile Nathan Haas is coming on strong this year as well. Lampre packs a great 1-2-3 punch in Diego Ulissi, Rui Costa, and a resurgent Damiano Cunego. Ulissi was brilliant in the Tour Down Under, picking up a podium spot, and he has a few good results in smaller Italian races since then. World Champ Rui Costa looked good in Paris-Nice and this is a good parcours for him with plenty of opportunities to attack, but Pais Vasco left some question marks about his form. Damiano Cunego won Amstel Gold back in 2008, but his career has, to put it lightly, taken a bit of a dip since then. However, he has looked great in 2014, nailing a 4th place in Strade Bianche and riding with the big favorites in Pais Vasco; his ITT kept him out of the top 10 of the race but only barely. For the first time in a while, a podium is within his reach here. Astana has a very well-rounded team with several matches to burn and options for many different scenarios. Vincenzo Nibali is still looking for that elusive big one-day win, and he loves to fire off attacks on days like these. His chief lieutenant Jakob Fuglsang has been more aggressive than usual lately and that could help here. Enrico Gasparotto was a pretty surprising winner of this race in 2012. I don’t think he’s still at that level, but the explosive climbs suit him. Maxim Iglinskiy was Astana’s other surprise Ardennes winner in 2012 when he took Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Like Gasparotto, he has not done much since to suggest maintained form, but his skillset at least deserves a mention. Francesco Gavazzi and Borut Bozic present strong sprinting options should a larger group arrive. With so many weapons, I think Astana has a great chance of landing at least one rider in the top 10; I just have no idea which of their riders it will be.
Belkin’s Bauke Mollema would normally be a contender here (back-to-back top 10s in 2012 and 2013) but his form is questionable so far in 2014; still, he’ll like the profile. AG2R’s Carlos Betancur would be among the chief favorites but a nagging knee injury makes him a big question mark for Amstel. If he shows the same formhere he showed in Paris-Nice, he’ll be back among the favorites where he belongs for La Fleche Wallonne; teammate Romain Bardet is another great climber. Lotto’s Tony Gallopin managed to overcome a very late flat to finish on the Brabantse Pijl podium and he’s a good outside bet here, with Jurgen Van Den Broeck starting as well. French national champion Arthur Vichot took a big stage victory for FDJ on the final day of Paris-Nice and landed on the podium there; he can climb and sprint well. Other outsiders include Giant’s Tom Dumoulin and Simon Geschke, Bardiani-CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli and Enrico Battaglin, Wanty – Groupe Gobert’s Bjorn Leukemans (he has been 7th here three times, and has looked sharp in 2014), Trek’s Andy and Frank Schleck, CCC’s Davide Rebellin (winner of this race way back in 2004), Cannondale’s Marco Marcato and Daniello Ratto. Lastly, Europcar sends Thomas Voeckler, but Bryan Coquard is apparently on the startlist as well, and should he somehow make it to the finish line with the lead group, he’s probably the fastest sprinter in the race.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Michal Kwiatkowski Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Philippe Gilbert Other Top Contenders: Simon Gerrans, Daniel Moreno, Diego Ulissi, Michael Matthews, Ben Swift, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Roman Kreuziger
As usual, I’ll be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race from the new VeloHuman Twitter account, so if you don’t already, remember to follow @VeloHuman for more! And come back soon for previews of La Fleche Wallonne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the Tour de Romandie!
