Tag: Preview

Paris-Roubaix 2014 Preview

The incomparable Paris-Roubaix runs for the 111th time this Sunday. The legendary race is a celebration of days long past, a relic that offers dangers and challenges unseen elsewhere in most of today’s other major contests. The trip is mostly a flat affair, but the rough cobbles, patches of mud, whirling dust clouds, fanatical spectators, and excessive length provide difficulties that no profile could display. Constant attacks at every juncture force splits and selections and require acute awareness at all times. A moment of lost concentration can also mean going down hard on the unforgiving surface. Experience navigating the difficulties and an extremely high tolerance for the bone-rattling pain of irregular roads are crucial at Paris-Roubaix.

51.1 total kilometers of cobbles lie along the 256 kilometer road from Compiegne to Roubaix. Some of those sections are in better shape in others, and each is given a rating (between one and five). The more difficult sections are often the site of attacks, with the race’s three five-star cobbled sections quite likely to force selection. First among them, the wooded Arenberg Trench greets the peloton (or what remains by that point) after 161 kilometers. The 2.4 kilometer stretch is extremely rough, and after what might constitute a whole day’s racing in a stage race, the abuse of riding over uneven stones takes its toll. The Mons-en-Pévèle is the next five-star section, 3 kilometers long with some sharp turns and generally a lot of mud, beginning around kilometer 208. Tom Boonen’s awesome long-distance strike in 2012 was launched just before this section was reached; even if it doesn’t launch the winning attack this year, it will still be sure to jettison a few riders from the pack. A few more easily rated sections follow the muddy stretch before the five-star Le Carrefour de l’Arbre is reached, the legendary 2.1 kilometers of uneven pave that must be overcome only 17 km before the finish line. It’s hard to drop anyone after this point, so if the race isn’t split up by the time the riders reach the Carrefour, expect fireworks from the riders hoping to avoid a sprint in the iconic Roubaix velodrome.

Contenders for the Cobblestone Trophy

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara comes into Sunday’s race looking to pick up his fourth cobblestone trophy (which is literally a cobblestone), and he enters the race as a big favorite thanks to both his resume in the classics generally and recent displays of current form. The four-time ITT world champion has one of the biggest engine’s in the sport, making it nearly impossible to drop him. Holding his wheel is an immense struggle on this terrain. But any riders capable of hanging on then must beat him in a sprint, which he has shown quite an aptitude in recently. He won last year’s edition by outsprinting Sep Vanmarcke after the two of them bridged a gap to Zdenek Stybar and Stijn Vandenbergh up the road, watched both of those riders run into spectators, and then continued on by themselves. This year, the sprinting ability that won him last year’s P-R carried him to 2nd place in Milano-Sanremo in March, and it put him atop the podium of his third Tour of Flanders last week when he made it into the winning attack and won a sprint to the line. Defeating Fabian Cancellara will be a very tall order for the other contenders in this race: he has the perfect combination of current form, ability, and experience to win this race. Stijn Devolder is still uncertain for this race after a crash filled Flanders, but if he’s here, he’s a great second.

Tom Boonen has won Paris-Roubaix even more times than Cancellara; his 2012 victory after more than 50 kilometers riding solo is the stuff of legend. Various maladies kept him from contesting in 2013, but numerous results this year have shown that he has recaptured some form. Still, he has not quite returned to the level of two years past, and injury and personal misfortunes have made 2014 a difficult year; he was unable to hang with Cancellara in the Ronde. Paris-Roubaix is a different race, without the climbs of Flanders, and it may suit Boonen a bit more against the seemingly unstoppable Cancellara. What’s more, while his ability to put up sustained power numbers might be somewhat reduced, he still looks quite handy in a sprint, and he learned years ago that the best tactic against Cancellara is to remain glued on that wheel and hope for a sprint. He will also have plenty of help from star-studded Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Niki Terpstra has been a very active and very successful rider this spring, following up a 2nd place at E3 Harelbeke with a 6th place at the Tour of Flanders. He was 3rd in last year’s Paris-Roubaix, the next rider to cross the line after the Cancellara/Vanmarcke duo. Terpstra is a keen opportunist and an excellent soloist, and as one of a number of options on his team, he could benefit if the pack hesitates to follow. Zdenek Stybar was strong enough to still manage an 8th place despite running into a spectator last year. He hasn’t made as big an impression on this classics season as I initially expected, but he does have plenty of form and the bike handling skills of a cyclocross world champion. He also has a quick finish. 29 year-old teammate Stijn Vandernbergh was the other major spectator casualty of 2013, but he enters this year’s edition again on stellar form, having come in 4th in both the Ronde and E3 Harelbeke. He does not have the fastest sprint but he’s very aggressive and at the very least, he’s almost certain to try something on the tough cobbled sections.

The top challenger taking on favorite Cancellara and super-team OPQS is last year’s runner-up Sep Vanmarcke. Just 25, the Belkin rider has already been on the podiums of Gent-Wevelgem, the Tour of Flanders, and obviously Paris-Roubaix, each time showing good cycling acumen for planning the successful attacks and the engine to make them. Unfortunately, on all three of those occassions, his fellow attackers outsprinted him to the finish line. In 2014, he has been in the top 5 of all three WorldTour cobbled races, as well as other big spring contests Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. His biggest challenge will be creating a real gap between other contenders, as a sprint finish simply will not do for him. I think he is one of the very few riders with a chance at getting ahead of Cancellara, and he will certainly give that venture a shot on Sunday. It’s a big ask, but one thing is for sure: he is an excellent bet to be on at least one of the three steps on the podium. Lars Boom is a very high quality support rider.

Paris-Roubaix is a truly unique bike race, unlike any other in the grueling tests through which it parts participants. It is also unlike most of the other bike races that Peter Sagan, versatile as he is, has won in his life. Sagan did not ride this race last year. His 2011 attempt landed him 86th. The long, brutal days have challenged Sagan in his young career, and the flat parcours gives him fewer opportunities to gap the bigger riders. Still, counting out Peter Sagan is always a mistake. He already has a pair of fine wins on the WorldTour level, in Tirreno-Adriatico and at E3 Harelbeke, thanks to his good form in 2014. Winning a Monument is his central goal right now, and I think he will give this race 100%. He obviously has the sprint to beat most challengers if he makes it to the finish, and he’s an expert bike handler for the difficult cobbled stretches. Whether he can survive the carnage of attacks is the real question. I don’t think he will match Cancellara in Paris-Roubaix, but I don’t think it’s an impossible ask either.

Milano-Sanremo winner Alexander Kristoff added to his remarkable track record in recent Monuments last weekend when he came in 5th in the Ronde, rolling across the line by himself after a failed but spirited attempt to bridge to Cancellara’s group. The Katusha rider has a special talent for sprinting after hard days in the saddle, and few are harder than Paris-Roubaix. Furthermore, P-R doesn’t have the climbers of Flanders, which will play into his hands, as he is not an expert climber. 9th in 2013, Kristoff looks even better this year and more likely to hang on during the attacks or even make his own attempts to bridge if necessary. Of the favorites, he has one of the fastest sprints. If he’s there at the finish, it’s hard to see him not winning the cobblestone trophy. As usual, Luca Paolini makes a great second. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb is the other big name sprinter who might be considered to at least have a shot at being there in the finish. He held on as long as he could in Flanders but was ultimately dropped on the final climbs on the race. It won’t be much easier in Paris-Roubaix, but the Gent-Wevelgem winner is on awesome form and on a good day and with some luck, making the final selection is not out of the question. If he can hold the right wheel to the end of the race, he’s one of the fastest finishers on the start list.

BMC sends a powerful duo to the race in Taylor Phinney and Flanders runner-up Greg Van Avermaet. Phinney attacked early in 2013 but was unable to hold an advantage. He was twice winner of the U-23 edition of the race. The track star turned time trial specialist has a giant engine and he is handy in a sprint finish. He excels on the long flat days. Last week in Flanders he did an excellent job staying up the road for quite a while to keep the pressure of Greg Van Avermaet; Paris-Roubaix is definitely his style, and BMC will look to set him up for a strike more aimed at overall success here. Said teammate Van Avermaet is an excellent option as well, having ridden to 4th here in 2013. He looks in great shape in 2014, placing highly in a number of races even if he hasn’t managed to come up with the victories he has sought. Fewer hills give him fewer opportunities to show off his quality climbing abilities, but this is a race that rewards aggressive riders, and Van Avermaet fits that bill. In years past, Thor Hushovd challenged for the win here a few times, coming as close as 2nd place in 2010; he’s a bit past those golden years now, but the tough former World Champ deserves a namecheck at least. BMC has the talent to challenge the big favorites in this race.

Team Sky also sends a good squad, with Edvald Boasson Hagen and Bradley Wiggins the featured riders for the contest. Boasson Hagen has been riding very well lately, mostly in support, and his time trialing skills and top-notch finishing kick could land him in a great position in Paris-Roubaix. Meanwhile, Bradley Wiggins decided that he would ride the cobbles of Paris-Roubaix this year, and though he does not really have a history of success in this race, he looked pretty good at last week’s Ronde van Vlaanderen. He’s not among the favorites, but he has shown an exceptional ability to succeed when he sets his mind to goals most would deem overly ambitious. Moreover, this is a race that can be won by an elite time trialist, and Bradley Wiggins is among the best in recent memory in that discipline. Geraint Thomas is supposedly riding this race in support of his teammates, but if for some reason he finds himself in position to make a move, he’s a very tough rider built for the days like these; his biggest knock is his propensity to crash, and Paris-Roubaix is nothing if not treacherous.

Back in 2009, Filippo Pozzato managed to finish 2nd to Tom Boonen in Paris-Roubaix. He was also the victor at E3 that year, and 5th in Flanders. Things haven’t really gone the way the Lampre rider would have hoped in recent years, and he is yet to have much success this year, but he did finish with Degenkolb, Sagan, and Stybar in the small group chasing the attackers up the road in Flanders last week. Teammate Sacha Modolo seems unlikely to be there after such a tough day, but he’s one of best sprinters in the race if that somehow happens.

Longer shots looking to animate the race include Wanty Groupe – Gobert’s Bjorn Leukemans (9th in De Ronde this year, and 4th at P-R in 2007), Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld (10th in De Ronde this year, and 7th at P-R in 2013) and Johan Vansummeren (involved in a serious crash with a spectator, he had a rough Flanders this year, but he did win Paris-Roubaix in 2011 and has a host of other top 10s to his name), and AG2R’s Sebastien Turgot (a surprise 2nd place here in 2012) and Damien Gaudin. Long shots to somehow hang with the proven hardmen and sprint it out include FDJ’s Arnaud Demare (who looks very fast this season but who has not been able to survive the tough days to make it to the finish), Garmin’s Tyler Farrar, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, IAM’s Heinrich Haussler, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati.

No exhaustive preview can account for every possibility in a crazy race like Paris-Roubaix. A puncture or crash could instantly ruin the hopes of any of the big favorites and open the contest for new contenders. Still, through all the uncertainty, this race has been dominated by a select group of riders in the past several years; as difficult as it is to win Paris-Roubaix, and as large a role as chance can play over miles and miles of cobbles, seven of the last nine editions have seen either Tom Boonen or Fabian Cancellara victorious. Sunday will offer a great showdown between both of these heavyweights, and also between the now old guard they represent and the rising stars of Vanmarcke, Sagan, Kristoff and others.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Fabian Cancellara
Podium: Sep Vanmarcke, Tom Boonen
Other Top Contenders: Alexander Kristoff, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Taylor Phinney, Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet, Edvald Boasson Hagen

VeloHuman recently joined the Twitterverse! Follow @VeloHuman for more analysis and commentary during the race, and be sure to come back soon for post-race thoughts and previews of Amstel Gold, La Fleche Wallonne, and the fourth monument of the year, Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Olivier Moindroit and Christophe Duhem.

April 10, 2014
Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco 2014 Preview

GC Stars Take on The Tour of the Basque Country

Fabian Cancellara has just won a thrilling Tour of Flanders sticking a late move with Greg Van Avermaet, Sep Vanmarcke, and Stijn Vandenbergh and outgunning all three Belgians at the line. Check back soon for a post-race impressions on De Ronde, and remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more. The cobbled experts remain in Northern Europe through the week waiting for the Hell of the North to kick off. Meanwhile, many of the pro peloton’s top GC riders are on again in Spain, lining up for the Tour of the Basque Country. The often rainy, rarely flat journey through the region, a spectacle notable enough to be mentioned in Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, draws an impressive start list to match its always-exciting parcours. In fact, every winner since 2007 also has at least one Grand Tour win or 2nd place in a Grand Tour on his palmares. Last year’s victor, Nairo Quintana, went on to take 2nd overall in the 2013 Tour de France. He is not returning to defend his title, but Alberto Contador, Quintana’s Grand Tour winning teammate Alejandro Valverde, and many other heavy hitters will line up to take on the ups and downs of Pais Vasco.

Stages 4 and 6 will be crucial GC battlegrounds at the 2014 Tour of the Basque Country

Though a stage or two might go to a sprinter, none of the stages in the Tour of the Basque country could be considered “flat.” The very 1st stage might create time gaps if a punchy climber launches on one of the many sharp Category 2 ascents on the day, including a one starting within 10 kilometers of the finish. The 4th and 6th stages could be most decisive: Stage 4 finishes with a climb of Arrate (though it ends on a short downhill), where Nairo Quintana climbed to the stage victory in 2013. Anyone with ambitions of winning this race, however, will have to keep it together through the 6th and final stage, a 25.9 kilometer time trial with a pair of serious climbs along the way. And throughout the week, you can expect rainy weather to force all the contenders to adapt.

All-Rounder Roundup

After his dominant victory at Tirreno-Adriatico and strong showing for 2nd place at Catalunya, the GC conversation at Pais Vasco has to start with two-time winner of this race, Alberto Contador. Tinkoff-Saxo’s star is back with a vengeance in 2014, and this is an event in which he has a great history of success. While the race lacks an interminable uphill slog to a summit finish that one might see in a Grand Tour, there are plenty of climbing miles for Alberto to wear down lesser challengers. Moreover, the stage 6 time trial will favor Contador’s high endurance game over the purer climbers who struggle against the clock. Tinkoff-Saxo does not send their top rider to Pais Vasco alone, however; Roman Kreuziger joins Contador for this race as he joined him at Tirreno-Adriatico, where he finished on the podium. As an Ardennes-winner with the ability to jump ahead on the short steep climbs (of which there are many in this race), Roman Kreuziger is a danger man. He also has a great time trial. Tinkoff-Saxo’s one-two punch will put other teams under a ton of pressure.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has not raced the Basque Country often in recent years, but he had a great deal of success earlier in his career, coming in 2nd in 2006 and nabbing several stage wins across multiple editions. A two time Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner, and also a winner of the Basque Country’s most famous one day race, the Clasica de San Sebastian, Valverde has some experience finding the perfect launching pad among a succession of climbs. He can also hold his own against the clock, especially in the mountains. Most importantly, he’s on fire in 2014, having already won a slew of lower level victories. As usual, Movistar sends plenty of support. Basque Country native Benat Intxausti was 8th here in 2013 and 2nd in 2010. He packs both excellent climbing ability and a strong time trial. Young Jon Izagirre, another rider from El Pais Vasco and a former Euskaltel squad member to boot, will also look to use his combined climbing and trialing ability to make a showing in this race. With several strong options, Movistar will likely be very active this week.

World Champion Rui Costa is an excellent all-rounder who will love the stage profiles; only a few singularly grueling climbs, many small but difficult ascents thrown in, and a hilly time trial to finish (Costa is strong against the clock when there is climbing involved). Costa will look for every opportunity to jump off the front when the rest of the peloton grinds to a halt going uphill, not only because every second will count in this race (though there are no bonus seconds at the line), but also because he’s still looking for his first win in the rainbow jersey in 2014. Teammate Damiano Cunego has had many strong results in Pais Vasco, with numerous top 10s in the past few years.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen is coming off an excellent trip to Catalunya, where he climbed his way to his first WorldTour victory on stage 4, and 3rd place overall. He must be ecstatic to have landed such fine results in a race without a time trial. In Pais Vasco, the American all-rounder will be salivating at the final day’s test against the clock, which will suit his engine. In addition, his Catalunya victory seems to show an improved ability to explode uphill, which will help van Garderen in the days prior to the final chrono. BMC will be backing him up with quite a supporting cast. Cadel Evans makes the trip to prepare for the Giro. Samuel Sanchez, who has a great history of success in this race, winning in 2012, will look to put together a result for his new team. He was still a bit off his game in Catalunya but the Tour of the Basque Country suits him and I believe he will be motivated to step up.

Paris-Nice winner Carlos Betancur heads up the suddenly world-beating AG2R team. Minor injury put his participation in question until the last minute, but he seems set to start. He was 7th last year, and on stellar form in 2014, he’s a great bet to pick up time charging ahead on the early stages of this race; the biggest challenge for Betancur will be the final stage, as he generally struggles against the clock. Teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud may actually be the better overall bet, coming off basically the first big victory of his very long career in the Criterium International last week. He is good against the clock, especially in this kind of ITT, and with his 4th place at Tirreno-Adriatico he showed an impressive ability to contend with the top GC guys right now. Versatile Christophe Riblon is yet another option for AG2R.

Early season star Michal Kwiatkowski had a very disappointing Tirreno-Adriatico, and his only race since was a DNF at Milano-Sanremo. He was on blazing form in February and March, but it is unclear if he has still kept that top-shelf shape into April. If so, he is very dangerous here, with so many short climbs that suit him much better than the grueling T-A stage that sunk his hopes in that race. If he can limit his losses uphill, especially on Stage 4, he will be a strong contender to win the final time trial outright, making him a good bet for the overall at Pais Vasco 2014.

Belkin’s dynamic duo of Bauke Mollema and Robert Gesink (3rd here in 2011) will hope that Pais Vasco goes better for them than Tirreno-Adriatico did (Mollema was well of the pace and Gesink abandoned T-A with a health issue). Both have looked good in other races this season, and I think the Pais Vasco parcours will be good for them. Simon Spilak leads the Katusha charge; 4th in 2013, he’s looked alright so far in 2014 with results that include a Top 10 in Paris-Nice. He can do a decent time trial when there are hills involved. FDJ sends Thibaut Pinot, who looked to be rounding into form at Catalunya after struggling to get his season started. Garmin-Sharp’s Ryder Hesjedal also looked to be getting back into shape at Catalunya after not participating in many races so far in 2014. He was 6th at the Gran Premio Miguel Indurain this week, so he seems to be continuing to improve. Andy and Frank Schleck headline Trek Factory Racing. Frank has looked decent so far this year, but teammate Robert Kiserlovski might be their most on-form rider here after his 7th in Tirreno-Adriatico and 10th in Catalunya.

Orica-GreenEdge’s Pieter Weening showed in last year’s Tour de Pologne that a hilly time trial suits him; he was 6th in Pais Vasco in 2013. Adam and Simon Yates are also along for OGE; keep an eye out for the highly touted young duo. Giant-Shimano’s pair of Warren Barguil and Tom Dumoulin could make waves here. Barguil will love the constant opportunities to jump up the road on a climb, and Dumoulin is a serious time trialing talent. Astana sends Mikel Landa, Janez Brajkovic, and Tanel Kangert (who is great against the clock). Lotto’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck will hope that this is the race that puts him on track in 2014. Caja Rural’s David Arroyo abandoned Catalunya in the final day but had been climbing at a high level before then; teammate Luis Leon Sanchez is a time trialing talent who has had plenty of success racing bikes in El Pais Vasco. Pierre Rolland has not gotten it going yet in 2014, but the two-time Tour de France Top 10er at least deserves a mention. And lastly: in a rare occurrence, Sky does not really have a top contender in this race, with their various stars racing, training, or recovering elsewhere; Mikel Nieve and Peter Kennaugh are their best bets here.

Stagehunters

The dearth of flat stages has kept the start list light on sprinting talent. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews and Sky’s Ben Swift will be happy to pick up whatever sprint finishes they can. Barring any late additions to the startlist Michael Morkov and Daniele Ratto comprise basically the rest of the list of riders to watch in a bunch gallop.

As with many races with this kind of parcours, most stages will see the GC contenders on their toes and alert for opportunities to strike; some of them, riders like Valverde, Costa, and Kwiatkowski will be looking to pick up multiple stage wins as well as fight for the General Classification. Holding off these big names will be a challenge for the stagehunters here, but the list of punchy fast-finishers among them is an impressive one: Orica Green-Edge’s Simon Gerrans (who won a stage last year), and BMC’s Philippe Gilbert headline the group. A number of the stars of Paris-Nice make the start as well. Garmin’s Tom-Jelte Slagter will love his chances to pick up more stage victories here. The same could be said for FDJ’s Arthur Vichot. Europcar’s Cyril Gautier will look for his first WorldTour win after a fine start to 2014. Jan Bakelants and Pieter Serry of OPQS also like to jump on the late bumps in the road and both have fast finishes. Astana’s Maxim Iglinskiy and Enrico Gasparotto could be active as well.

Amets Txurruka deserves a mention all to himself: he will almost certainly be up the road going for the long breakaway victory on multiple days of this race. He was King of the Mountains last year.

VeloHuman Favorites

Winner: Alberto Contador
Podium: Tejay van Garderen, Alejandro Valverde
Top 10: Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowksi, Roman Kreuziger, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Carlos Betancur

Be sure to follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis during the race, and come back soon for more classics coverage: the Paris-Roubaix preview is up next!

-Dane Cash

Photo by brassynn.

April 6, 2014
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2014 Preview

The Lay of the Land at the 98th Tour of Flanders

The crown jewel of the Flanders classics is finally here. Weeks of racing on the cobbles of Northern Europe have offered insights into who has the most in the tank right now, but on Sunday we get to see the big show, De Ronde van Vlaanderen. It is a 259 kilometer journey from Bruges to the finish line. The first 90 kilometers or so are relatively flat and the road does not meander much on its way to the first visit of finishing city Oudenaard, but then, the parcours turns hostile, winding sharply in a number of loops through East Flanders and greeting the riders with a constant barrage of steep, often cobbled climbs. The 2.2 kilometer, 4.2% average grade Oude Kwaremont (with a half kilometer at over 10%) must be ascended three times, twice with the Paterberg (roughly 380 meters, 13%) immediately following. The second ascent of this Oude Kwaremont/Paterberg double comes with only 15 km to go, after a battery of other climbs that includes the Koppenberg, Taaienberg, and Kruisberg. Any of the aforementioned bumps in the road could be a launching pad for a rider with the legs to fly solo on the way to a Monumental victory. Weather sometimes further complicates things in this race; the forecast for Sunday show clouds with a slight chance of rain at the moment. The wind will likely factor as well.

As the riders take on these grueling challenges, I’ll be tweeting live analysis of the race at the new @VeloHuman on Twitter. Be sure to follow!

The Riders to Watch

Last year’s winner Fabian Cancellara enters the race as a slight favorite among the bookmakers. Cancellara has shown strong legs in the early goings this season, but you might not know it from the results of the past few weeks in Belgium. Caught behind crashes in both E3 and Gent-Wevelgem, he has not been able to put his world-beating power on display at the very front of the race; he has, however, shown off strong form trying to recover. Meanwhile, his Milano-Sanremo sprint for 2nd against a very talented field shows a great deal of strength at the level of his game as well. Cancellara builds his season around the seven days between this and next Sunday, and it will be hard to match him on the road. He also has a two-time winner of this race in teammate Stijn Devolder, a rider capable of pulling for his team leader or launching attacks if necessary (don’t count out Devolder as a contender—he is only a few years removed from back-to-back victories and looks good this season).

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan occupied the next step on the podium of the 2013 Ronde. The Slovakian has not let up in 2014, winning E3 Harelbeke and taking 3rd in the less selective Gent-Wevelgem. I’ve been suggesting in past previews and post-race analyses that he may be focusing more seriously on his climbing and soloing abilities this year, possibly at the expense of his sprint. After this weekend, there won’t be any more guesswork on that front. Perhaps the biggest hurdle standing in the way of his bid for victory will be the distance; the one-day races Sagan has won in the recent past have been shorter contests, and in the seemingly interminable Monuments like Sunday’s Tour of Flanders, he has had trouble maintaining the level of energy that rival Cancellara seems to be able to muster. In short, it will be very difficult to match Spartacus in this grueling contest. However, this is a major goal of Peter Sagan’s season and he has another year of experience under his belt to help him in 2014. Knowing when to attempt the decisive attack and when to find a wheel is crucial in this race. I believe Sagan will also benefit from a larger group of contenders helping track down a late Cancellara solo move. His teammate Oscar Gatto is a very strong rider on these roads who is having a good early season to boot. He will be a valuable lieutenant against so many teams stacked with talent.

Tom Boonen missed the 2013 edition of this race (which he has won three times), but he is back and looking strong at the head of the Omega Pharma-Quick Step attack this year. He has been able to stay near the front of the races he has targetted this season, and victories in Qatar and Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne and a strong showing at Gent-Wevelgem are evidence of his still impressive finishing kick. His classics campaign has not been without its misfortunes, however; tragedy has struck his personal life, and he sustained a painful thumb injury at E3 Harelbeke. He is, with Cancellara and Sagan, in the top tier of bookmakers’ favorites for this race, but OPQS will have a host of options should Boonen not be up to the challenge. Teammate Niki Terpstra is on fire this spring, winning Dwars door Vlaanderen and coming in 2nd in E3 Harelbeke after showing strong legs at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and February’s Tour of Qatar (which he won). With form like this, he is a serious threat to go long. Zdenek Stybar is the team’s wild card. The winner of 2013’s Eneco Tour and 6th place finisher in Paris-Roubaix is not far removed from winning the 2013-2014 cyclocross world championship race, and he looked very capable on the climbs of Paris-Nice and the brutal Milano-Sanremo in March. Stybar has shown a remarkable ability to make it up and over the short, steep bumps in the road, and I think this skill will set him up nicely in the Ronde. Teammate Stijn Vandenbergh has also been very active this spring, while Guillaume van Keirsbulck has just won the Three Days of De Panne.

Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke occupies a role on the fringe on the top tier favorites, as the main challenger to the established trio of Cancellara, Sagan, and Boonen. He has been in the top 5 of all four Belgian races he has undertaken in 2014, showing plenty of power and a strong finish. He has been knocking on the door for a few years now, though he is yet to nab a win at this level. 2014 seems as good a year as any. In 2013, the 25-year-old Belgian stood on the podium of Paris-Roubaix, a position he earned by hanging with Cancellara himself (alone among all the other riders in that race); he clearly has a wealth of talent. Still, the Ronde offers some serious uphill challenges, and it is the one major Belgian classic race that Vanmarcke does not have a big result in as of yet. It will be interesting to see if he can up his game a notch to handle cobbled climb after cobbled climb. He will be supported by a deep squad that includes Lars Boom.

Jurgen Roelandts was the third man on the podium in 2013, and he returns to the Ronde in 2014 looking sharp early this year. He has spent much of his time on the road as Andre Greipel’s top lieutenant, but he has shown strong form when given the opportunity. In last week’s Gent-Wevelgem, he took up the reins for Lotto when Greipel went down in the final kilometers, and still managed a respectable 10th. Meanwhile, teammate Tony Gallopin, winner of the 2013 Clasica de San Sebastian, has put together several fine performances so far this year. A true all-rounder, he will hope to put pressure on his opponents on the race’s many inclines. With Roelandts and Gallopin at the helm, Lotto-Belisol is not a team to be underestimated. Team Sky is another dangerous squad with multiple versatile options. Ian Stannard will be sidelined for a while with a serious back injury, but Geraint Thomas was 3rd at E3 Harelbeke and on track for a podium finish in the recent Paris-Nice before crashing out of that race. He is riding at a very high level right now, and has the toughness to hold on when the other contenders start to fall off the pace. Meanwhile, teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen looked very strong in this year’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and has continued to show form in support of his teammates in the run-up to De Ronde. His sprint is a known commodity, and he’s a danger man should he be at the front of the race as it nears its conclusion. Even Bradley Wiggins is here, filling in for the injured Stannard.

BMC’s Greg van Avermaet has notched three top 10s in this race, two in the past two years. He came so close to winning Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in early March, and has looked decent in the past few cobbled races. He certainly possesses the right array of skills, mixing capable climbing legs with a knack for going solo and a strong finish, but whether all of his combined strengths will shine bright enough to beat out the serious competition in this race is the big unknown. A top 10 is always within his reach; the win always seems just out of it. Perhaps 2014 is the year it all comes together? Meanwhile, BMC also sends Taylor Phinney, recovering from an ailment but maybe a factor with a late attack, and Thor Hushovd, should the bunch somehow stay intact to the line.

Gent-Wevelgem winner John Degenkolb of Giant-Shimano will also hope he can hang on while riders try to blow up the race on the likes of the Koppenberg and Oude Kwaremont. However, I don’t think he’s purely reliant on a bunch sprint finish for victory. Degenkolb has been known to attack out of the bunch in tough races, and his form has looked sharper than ever this spring. With every race, Degenkolb seems to grow more confident in his ability to handle the difficult days. Unfortunately for him, his opponents will do everything in their power to avoid a situation in which they may be forced to face him in a sprint, meaning that Degenkolb will be fighting for his life on Sunday. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare was 2nd at G-W, and he’ll be hoping he can keep pace this Sunday as well. He is a tough competitor. Among the toughest fastmen on the road will be Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, who finished 4th in 2013. These climbs could be a bit beyond his skillset, but the long day in the saddle and the relatively flat closing kilometers play in the favor of the of Milano-Sanremo winner. Teammate Luca Paolini has looked great in support of Kristoff so far this year, and he may look for opportunities to get up the road in Flanders.

IAM Cycling sends a pair of former Ronde runners-up in Sylvain Chavanel, who will look to strike from afar, and Heinrich Haussler, who will hope to outpace opponents at the line. Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato was runner-up just two years ago, and he has been in the Top 10 two more times in the past. He has not shown much this year but his 2013 GP Ouest France victory came as a surprise after a while off his best form, and this is a race he has a history in. Teammate Sacha Modolo will struggle mightily to hang on when attacks are launching left and right, but should it come to a mass gallop, he has been flying in the sprints this year.

The list of outsiders with a chance at victory from a small group or long attack also includes Daryl Impey and Jens Keukeleire of Orica-GreenEdge, Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld and Johan Vansummeren, and Wanty – Groupe Gobert’s Bjorn Leukemans (4th in 2010).

Movistar’s JJ Lobato and Francisco Ventoso, Garmin’s Tyler Farrar, Astana’s Borut Bozic and Francesco Gavazzi, MTN Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, Tinkoff-Saxo’s dangerous duo of Matti Breschel and Daniele Bennati, Topsport Vlaanderen’s on-form up-and-comer Tom Van Asbroeck, Wanty – Groupe Gobert’s Jean-Pierre Drucker, and NetApp’s Sam Bennett comprise a list of other outsiders looking for an opportunity to use their sprinting abilities should a larger group somehow remain intact at the finish.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Peter Sagan
Podium: Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen
Other Top Contenders: Zdenek Stybar, Sep Vanmarcke, Geraint Thomas, Jurgen Roelandts, John Degenkolb, Greg van Avermaet, Niki Terpstra

Follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! And come back soon to check out previews of the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco and next week’s Paris-Roubaix, as well as post-race analysis of what promises to be a thrilling Tour of Flanders.

-Dane Cash

Photos by visitflanders.

April 4, 2014
Volta Ciclista a Catalunya 2014 Preview

The Scenario: A Climber’s Dream Course in Catalunya

Just one day after the first sprinter-friendly Milano-Sanremo in years, the Volta a Catalunya, a climber’s dream course, begins about an hour north of Barcelona in Calella, Spain. 2014’s Volta a Catalunya, like past editions of the race, offers a parcours rife with uphill action, including a third stage dominated by Alt de la Creueta, a climb that caps a larger section of over 30 kilometers at an over 3% on average grade. That brutal stage finishes atop the Category 1 summit of La Molina, but the riders will have little time to rest before embarking on the fourth stage, where they will be welcomed by three Category 1 climbs and a summit finish at the Vallter 2000 ski resort. Stage 6 looks like the only day that the GC contenders will try to take comfortably, with almost 60 downhill or flat kilometers into the finish. While not as demanding as the two aforementioned high mountain days, stages 1, 2, 5, and 7 will require the overall contenders to be on their toes, with late climbs likely to inspire attacks. In short, this is not a race for the faint of heart, or the heavy of frame. The parcours has drawn quite a startlist, one that will pit some of the top GC climbers against one another in a contest of early season form.

Before I dive in, the important notes: follow the still-practically-brand-new Twitter account @VeloHuman for plenty of live analysis during the race (and check it out soon for live Milano-Sanremo updates and analysis)! MSR post-race thoughts will be up not long after today’s contest, and the next preview on the docket is the 28th’s E3 Harelbeke, so you might as well just keep this window open for a few days to come!

All-rounder Roundup

Chris Froome dropped out of Tirreno-Adriatico with back pain, but he’ll be lining up for the Volta a Catalunya at the head of Sky’s finest to make a bid for victory. He reminded the peloton of his supremacy atop Green Mountain in the Tour of Oman in late February, but he hasn’t raced since, making the form, and the general health, something of an unknown. He’ll need all his ability against the field. Fortunately, trusted lieutenant Richie Porte will be there to play second. Porte was forced to abandon Tirreno-Adriatico for health reasons himself, but he looked sharp there before he left. Together with climbing talents Mikel Nieve and David Lopez, Sky’s top GC riders will look to pick up results at the WorldTour level. It is hard to predict how they will do, given health concerns, but if nagging issues are resolved by the time the race begins, obviously they’re quite the one-two punch, even without a time trial in the race.

A revitalized Alberto Contador (who “won” this race in 2011, but was stripped of the title as part of his doping penlaties) took Tirreno-Adriatico by storm, and he’ll attend Catalunya looking to further prove his improved form against those riders who were not in attendance during his spectacular Stage 5 performance in Italy, ie. Froome, Porte, and Joaquim Rodriguez. Contador’s team will not include his chief lieutenant Roman Kreuziger or Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka was a late scratch, leaving him a bit understaffed with lieutenants. The big question for Contador is whether he can maintain the otherworldly level he was on last week into this week’s contest.

Joaquim Rodriguez leads Katusha’s charge alongside Daniel Moreno. Purito was 2nd here last year and won in 2010, and he looked on fine form in Oman. Moreno was very strong last week in Tirreno-Adriatico, among the best climbers in the race. With no troublesome time trials to put them behind the likes of Froome and Porte, Catalunya will likely see the usual uphill fireworks from these two, with plenty of potential stage wins in play. Moreno and Rodriguez are both known for explosiveness and fast finishes, but they’ve also gotten better and better on the long haul climbs, and they’ll need to be at their best with a few ascents that seem to go on forever in this race.

4th in last year’s edition was Movistar’s Nairo Quintana, who is coming off a sharp 2nd place in Tirreno-Adriatico. He was not able to match Alberto Contador’s uphill ability there, but he also had not taken part in a stage race in almost two months. I think he will be a bit more acclimated to the grind now. The unrelenting climbing will suit his skillset perfectly.
Update: there are reports that Quintana is taking antibiotics to get over a cold, which will obviously make things harder for him here.

Last year’s winner (and prior to that, two time runner-up) Daniel Martin, was made for this race and its parcours. The pure climber sealed his victory in 2013 with a fearless uphill attack on the 4th stage that left Purito and Quintana in its wake. His past results here might make him a bigger favorite in this race if his form weren’t such a question mark. With his eyes on a defense of Monument classic Liege-Bastogne-Liege and then a Giro starting in his home country of Ireland, Martin’s goals may have shifted somehwat this year. He’s still a strong contender, but Ryder Hesjedal (form also a question mark), late addition Andrew Talansky, and Tom Danielson are other cards for Garmin to play should Martin not be at peak form just yet.

AG2R sends a fearsome trio to Catalunya, led by Paris-Nice winner Carlos Betancur. Questions about his shape and form were more than answered by his dominance in P-N, and Catalunya is another opportunity for him to make a statement, this time against better GC-style competition. Domenico Pozzovivo had a fine Tirreno-Adriatico, notching a 6th place. Romain Bardet‘s chances at Paris-Nice were derailed by an early crash, but he’ll be yet another uphill option for AG2R in Spain this week.

Omega Pharma’s Rigoberto Uran seemed 100% committed to the cause of teammate Michal Kwiatkowski last week in Tirreno-Adriatico, and did not challenge for GC himself. Still, I believe he is in good form, and probably looking for a chance to prove it; against many the top climbers in the sport, he’ll have a good chance this week. New teammate Thomas de Gendt took his last pro victory in the final stage of this race in 2013. Perhaps he’ll look to 2014 as an opportunity to get back on track. BMC’s Tejay van Garderen looked very strong in Oman, second on the decisive climb to Chris Froome, but had to abandon Paris-Nice early due to illness. If he still has the kind of form that he showed in Oman, he has a fine opportunity here, with a chance to put his uphill diesel engine to work on these long climbs. Teammate Samuel Sanchez has had a great deal of success in this race over the years, winning stages and landing several strong GC showings, though it’s hard to guess his form right now.

Chris Horner abandoned Tirreno-Adriatico with tendinitis, but he looked sharp before then; teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec made last year’s top 10. Wilco Kelderman leads a strong Belkin team, and he’ll hope Cataluyna will provide the chance for glory than an untimely mechanical stole from him in Paris-Nice; he looked strong in that race. Laurens Ten Dam and Steven Kruisjwijk are good support options. Ivan Basso struggled in Tirreno-Adriatico, but he’ll look to rebound for Cannondale here. Warren Barguil leads Giant-Shimano up the Spanish climbs. Various ailments have kept Thibaut Pinot out of races early this year, but he took 8th place here last year and obviously the profile suits him if he’s healthy; Alexandre Geniez, Arnold Jeanneason and Kenny Elissonde are all strong support riders or backup options if need be for FDJ. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland and Thomas Voeckler will try to bring that team some success on up-down terrain that seems to suit them. Julian Arredondo made one of the biggest impressions of last week’s Tirreno-Adriatico, and the Colombian climbing talent will love this time trial-less, route; meanwhile, teammate Robert Kiserlovski made it two in the top 10 for Trek at T-A, giving a team in sore need of GC contenders a surprising pair of them here. Lotto’s Jurgen van den Broeck will look to get on track after a series of disappointments this year. Astana sends Janez Brajkovic, Mikel Landa, and young Fabio Aru. Cofidis sends 2013 Tour top 10 finisher Daniel Navarro, who looked good in Andalucia. Caja Rural sends David Arroyo and Luis Leon Sanchez, who also looked good in Andalucia. The Pro Continental squads will have their work cut out for them against so many top climbers leading top climbing squads here.
Update: Top-notch climber Jakob Fuglsang is a late addition to the Astana squad and therefore joins the realm of outside contenders.

Stagehunters

With so many stages for the GC style climbers, staggeringly few sprinters are even bothering to make the trip (no time trials means there aren’t any chrono men seeking ITT wins either). Stage 6 is likely to be contested by a pretty select list of riders in a mass gallop. AG2R’s Sam Dumoulin (who has excelled in this race, taking three stages in the past) Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec, Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo (coming off a broken collarbone), Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari, Lotto’s Gregory Henderson, and OGE’s Leigh Howard look to be the most capable fast men on the start list. The first three also happen to be fairly versatile riders, for whom some of the hillier stages are not out of the realm of possibility. Anthony Roux is the sort of rider who might take advantage of some of the lumpier days. It seems inevitable that Caja Rural’s Amets Txurruka and Trek’s Jens Voigt will spend some time up the road looking for long-range victories. At least with so few riders making the start who aren’t focused on their own or their teammates’ GC aspirations, the stagehunters will have less competition for their one-day goals!

VeloHuman GC Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana
Challengers: Carlos Betancur, Rigoberto Uran, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tejay van Garderen, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Moreno, Daniel Martin

Don’t forget to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter, and check back soon for the E3 Harelbeke preview!

-Dane Cash

Photo by -Eric.

March 23, 2014
Tour of Beijing 2013 Preview

The Road Ahead

The last WorldTour race of the year! Despite all the controversy around this race, and all the derision that is heaped on it by observers due to the poor organization and abysmal air quality that riders must suffer through in the name of cycling’s globalization (and in the service of a fat paycheck for the UCI), it’s still a major event with major contenders seeking last minute WT points. For all the hate it gets, it’s still a race that sees some of the sport’s biggest names fighting for victory, and the 2013 edition is no different. Current and former World Champions of Road Race and Time Trial, a Monument winner, and the Vuelta’s best sprinter are all making the journey to China.

The 2013 Tour of Beijing will consist of five stages, none of them time trials. The first is a flat day sure to end in a sprint. The second throws in a few hills, but with a long flat run in to the finish, it’s another likely day for the sprinters. Stage 3 involves a hefty dose of climbing miles sure to put some fatigue in the legs before a summit finish on Stage 4 atop Miaofeng Mountain (site of the lovely sunset scene depicted above) sure to decide the Tour of Beijing. The final stage is a flat circuit race, another day for the sprinters.

All-rounder Roundup

Tony Martin is the two time winner of the Tour of Beijing, and as usual he heads a strong cast of supporters, but this year’s trip to China is different from the previous two: not only is there no time trial, but there is also a steep summit finish, which has not been the case in Tours of Beijing past. Stage 4 almost guarantees the winner will be a climber; the only way Tony Martin wins this race is with a long distance breakaway. Obviously he’s the rider to make this happen if it does, but that kind of gap when he has such a target on his back will be a tall order.

There are plenty of star climbers to take up the challenge. The best combination of form and talent at this point seems to be Garmin-Sharp’s Dan Martin, 4th in this race and King of the Mountains last year. In 2013, that mountain prowess means so much more. Martin was one of the top five riders in Lombardy last week, and a time trial-less one-week stage race with only one or at most two days to make an all out attack is just his style. Back in March, he won the Volta a Catalunya with a powerful uphill move on the most mountainous stage of the race, he’ll look to do the same here.

World Champion Rui Costa leads a strong Movistar squad. He’s an elite climber and, like Dan Martin, has elite explosiveness well-suited for stage races decided on one or two key days. Obviously, the world champion is on form right now, as he always seems to be at the end of the year. The two-time Tour de Suisse winner was 9th here last year. Capable climbers Benat Intxausti and Giovanni Visconti provide ample alternatives for the Spanish team.

A third rider matching form to ability is Belkin’s Robert Gesink, who has some good results these past few weeks, winning in Quebec and coming in 10th in Lombardy. Not long ago he was touted as a Grand Tour contender, with climbing talent that landed him in the top 5 of a Tour de France. Like Martin, he’s shown a great kick in one-day races this year, and also like Martin, he’ll appreciate the lack of a time trial stage. Wilco Kelderman is a great backup option.

Richie Porte heads Team Sky’s challenge. The Paris-Nice winner showed climbing ability in the Tour de France on par with the best riders in the world. The only question now is form: he hasn’t made many waves since rolling into Paris with Chris Froome. Young American Joe Dombrowski and Spaniard David Lopez are other very strong climbers on the squad.

Another big name from earlier this season whose form is a question is Giro Young Rider Classification winner Carlos Betancur. The climbing specialist was purely a domestique for Domenico Pozzovivo in the Vuelta, but he looked to be improving in the ensuing one-day races in Italy. Obviously, if Betancur recovers that form, he’ll be hard to beat. If not, AG2R La Mondiale sends a lot of firepower: Tour de l’Ain winner Romain Bardet, Tour de France stage winner and Tour de Pologne stage winner/GC podium finisher Christophe Riblon, and Jean-Christophe Peraud mean business. AG2R could be one of the most active teams on stages 3 and 4; they’re sure to launch repeated volleys in the classics-style climbs in the former and the long uphill grind of the latter, hoping one sticks.

Cannondale’s Ivan Basso has looked strong since his return, but he doesn’t have much in terms of results to show for his decent form; he abandoned the Vuelta and came in just outside the top 10 at Il Lombardia. He’ll hope to outlast his rivals on the long climb to the summit on Stage 4. Fellow aging star Michael Rogers will rue the lack of a time trial, but he’s been quite good this year in one week races in which he’s actually had a chance to ride for his own ambitions, finishing 6th in the Dauphine and 2nd in the Tour of California.

Orica-GreenEdge’s Cameron Meyer, Astana’s Janez Brajkovic, BMC’s Mathias Frank, and Vacansoleil’s Thomas De Gendt are other names to keep in mind. Zdenek Stybar is another option for Omega Pharma – Quick Step; he could go for a long strike on the hilly stage 3 in an attempt to mitigate his losses in the probably-too-mountainous-for-him stage 4.

This late in the year, with form fading after a long season and several riders hunting WT points at the close of 2013, the fight for the Tour of Beijing GC could see any number of enterprising contenders as the last man standing.

Stagehunters

Sagan, Cavendish, Kittel and Greipel might be sitting this one out, but there is a lot of young talent in China to take advantage of the three likely sprinter’s days. Michael Matthews, double stage winner in the Vuelta, headlines the list. OGE made it public that Matthews was their man for the harder sprint days in that race, with Leigh Howard as the man for the pan flat days, but when Matthews took a strong win early, his team gave him their full support on every bunch gallop opportunity, and he rewarded their faith with a victory in the final stage in Madrid. He’ll face fierce competition from FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, who won a Paris-Nice stage in March and found himself in the mix in a number of Giro stages, Cannondale’s Elia Viviani (winner of two stages in past Tour of Beijing), and of course, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, who started the year off slowly, but has picked things up in the post-Tour months. Luka Mezgec of Argos-Shimano was constantly nipping at the heels of Peter Sagan in their trip to North America recently, and he’ll have the support of a well marshalled lead out; Tom Veelers is a good alternate option. Alessandro Petacchi will be the man in the sprints for OPQS. Even at 39 he’s still looked imposing, runner-up in a Tour of Britain stage and always near the front in the Eneco Tour’s flat days. Constant high finisher but rare winner Robert Ferrari leads Lampre’s charge, and without the likes of Cavendish, perhaps he can nib a win here. I have already named Steele von Hoff an under the radar challenger this year so I suppose that precludes him from being considered under the radar again here, but if he wasn’t on your radar yet, he should be. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus was a hot sleeper pick for the sprints in the Vuelta and he achieved nothing there; maybe he’ll get back on track here before he dons the Belkin green next year. Vacansoleil also has Kenny Van Hummel. On sprinting duty for a very strong AG2R team is Yauheni Hutarovich.Katusha has a trio of young sprinters in Alexey Tsatevich, Marco Haller (who won a stage here last year) and, going way under the rader, Anton Vorobyev.

Regardless of whether he has a shot at GC, Zdenek Stybar is a great pick to nab a stage win on one of the five days. The Czech hardman, unfazed by the mud of the cyclocross circuit, the dust and cobbles of Paris-Roubaix, or the lumps of the Ardennes, is as good a bet as any to handle the Beijing smog and come out on top at a stage finish line with his versatile skillset. Stage 3 looks like a great place to strike, but he’s shown in a matter of weeks that he’s capable of winning on all kinds of profiles. His teammate Nikolas Maes is another sneaky stagehunter. The Astana trio of Francesco Gavazzi, Borut Bozic, and Simone Ponzi, Saxo-Tinkoff’s Matti Breschel, Cannondale’s Daniele Ratto and Damiano Caruso, Radioshack’s Jan Bakelants, and AG2R’s Rinaldo Nocentini are all versatile fast finishers. Gavazzi and Nocentini were 2nd and 6th, respectively, in last year’s GC. I think that’s unrealistic to repeat with this year’s parcours, but stage victories could be on their minds. The Tour of Beijing will be the farewell race of longtime star of combativity, Juan Antonio Flecha, and you can guarantee he’ll be going 100% in every breakaway possible in his last pro event. Stephen Cummings, 4th here in the past, is another strong breakaway candidate. And of course, Tony Martin will certainly be trying to get away on his own, even if he doesn’t think he has a shot at GC.

With so many stages sure to end in a bunch finish with the climbers taking it easy in the back of the peloton, it will be the stagehunters at the fore for the majority of the Tour of Beijing.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Daniel Martin

Podium

Rui Costa, Robert Gesink

Top 10

Carlos Betancur, Michael Rogers, Richie Porte, Ivan Basso, Mathias Frank, Christophe Riblon, Thomas De Gendt

-Dane Cash

Photo by Tim Wang.

October 10, 2013
Il Lombardia 2013 Preview

High Stakes Hill-climbing in Italy, Round Two

For all those big name riders who missed out on last week’s climber’s classic in Italy, this Sunday provides a perfect opportunity for redemption: another climber’s classic in Italy, 2013’s final Monument: Il Lombardia. It’s the last one-day WorldTour race of the year, the final Monument, and it’s well-timed, a race for the uphill specialists coming after a rare Championship race geared towards the same crowd, meaning that the contenders will be at the top of their game for a race that has, in the past, often featured riders in fading form.

Last weekend’s grueling Worlds proved to be a competition for the GC types in the end, but up until the last lap around Florence, it wasn’t so clear whether they’d be able to drop Spartacus and his type; Il Lombardia, though, has steeper, more selective slopes that will require even more climbing prowess, putting the spotlight squarely on the lighter men in the peloton.

The Valico di Valcava kicks things off before the halfway mark, 11 kilometers at an 8% gradient, a climb worthy of a high mountain stage in a Grand Tour. After another bump in the road, the Colle Brianza, the peloton takes on the very challenging wall of Sormano, touching gradients in the mid 20% range, with it’s summit a little more than 80 kilometers before the finish. It’s followed by a steep downhill and some flat land to give those dropped a chance to catch up, but regardless it will take a lot out of the legs of the heavier riders. The winding road up to the Madonna del Ghisallo is an irregular ascent that fluctuates between 10% sections and short periods of respite. Next up is a challenging descent, and then another 20 kilometers of flattish roads before the Villa Vergano climb, which, since being added to the parcours in 2011, has been the battleground on which this Monument has been decided. After so many intense lumps along the way to the finish in Lecco, the final test of 3.4 km at 8%, with a steeper run towards the top, is sure to launch the winner, or the small winning group, to victory.

Purito won in Lombardy last year, finally taking a well-earned first Monument title, and he’s the leading favorite again this year. He was agonizingly close to the rainbow jersey last Sunday when his attempt to solo away on the final slopes was shot down by a hard-charging Rui Costa. But if he’s maintained that top-level form into this Sunday, Rodriguez will have another excellent opportunity here, with a final launching pad perfectly designed for his punchy style that could create more of a gap than in Florence and less of a chance for chasers to catch back up. While said climb is almost 10 kilometers from the finish and followed by a downhill and then a flat (though technical) run-in towards the line, but the difficulty level of the slopes will inspire furious attacks that Purito can hope will prevent another sprint finish; not that he’s bad in a drag to the line, but certainly he’d prefer to avoid another last second disappointment to someone with a better kick. His teammate Daniel Moreno will be an excellent alternative option, especially if more than one rider is at the front of the race in the last kilometer. Moreno’s explosive style has netted him some big wins so far this year; he’s shown that not only can he hang on when things get hectic in a climber’s finish, but that he can be the one forcing the selection.

Last weekend’s climactic finish makes previewing this weekend’s race easier: every other member of the star-studded cast that made it into Rodriguez’s final move last Sunday should be counted as a favorite again this weekend, including, of course, the two riders who are teammates again in a race of trade teams: Alejandro Valverde and Rui Costa. Despite all of his incredible talent, Costa might have been riding this race in support of Valverde had he not taken the rainbow jersey in Florence; Movistar has undervalued Costa in the past. However, now that he is the World Champion, Costa will probably be given freedom to make his own moves, and who can doubt his ability and his expertise after last week. Still, Valverde is Valverde, and if nobody is able to break free, he’ll be the one to beat in a sprint finish. Movistar has even more cards to play than these two: Nairo Quintana may not have much of a one-day resume, but if there is any one top tier classic for the young rider to make his mark, it’s Lombardy. Giovanni Visconti and Benat Intxausti have both won similarly challenging races in Italy this year (during the Giro).

Home favorite Vincenzo Nibali managed to finish in 4th place last weekend despite having to dig deep to get back into the peloton after a late crash; who knows what might have been had he had that extra energy to use in the finish. The Giro winner will love the chance to show his strength in another challenging parcours, and he’s sure to make a move to break with the bunch when the road goes up late, as he doesn’t have much of a sprint to contend with the likes of Valverde, Moreno, or Costa. This lack of top-tier drag-racing talent has kept Nibali from having much success in single day races so far, but he’s on the form of his life, one of the top 5 riders in the sport this year, and it’s almost guaranteed that he’ll attempt to use his elite soloing ability to take the win. He may have a tough challenge climbing to the top of the podium, but of all the contenders, I see Nibali as by far the most likely to finish in the top 10.

Sky’s Rigoberto Uran took a nasty fall on a wet descent in the waning minutes of the championship, taking himself out of the running for the final push. It’s a shame, because the explosive rider might have made a splash. He was on the podium in Lombardy last year (in fact, he was on the podium all the way back in 2008 as well), and he has the tools to improve on those performances here in 2013. Surprisingly, Uran has yet to take that big marquee classic victory (last year’s Gran Piemonte was a great first step at the 1.HC level, but a Monument win would be on a whole new plane). With the Sergio Henao for company (and as a good alternative, as Henao has had some fine results in one-day races), Uran will be a fierce challenger for the victory Sunday.

Michele Scarponi lasted for a few moments in the decisive move during the World Championship race, and he’s been close to victory on numerous occasions in the past few weeks, coming up short again and again in the Vuelta. He’s another good home option riding for an Italian squad, but I think the real favorite on Lampre-Merida is young Diego Ulissi, who just took the midweek Milano-Torino. He has a great sprint (as he showed in the opening stage of this year’s Tour de Pologne, where he came out on top in a reduced bunch finish in a group fifteen strong after a late climb) and clearly the form to mix it up on the ascents. He’s not a great descender, and he’ll hope against hope for good weather, but if the conditions aren’t too nasty, Diego Ulissi could pose a serious challenge against the collection of better known, more established riders in the race.

Dan Martin was one of a number of big names last week to suffer an unfortunate crash in the rain, but the fall did not seem to have any lasting effects. 2nd in the 2011 edition of this event, where he outkicked a group that included Purito and Ivan Basso for the title of runner-up, Martin has had quite a string of misfortune after his amazing early season success. If he can manage to stay on the bike the whole race, he’s primed for success here, with a parcours perfectly suited to his skillset. He denied Rodriguez a second Monument when he passed him en route to the win at Liege-Bastogne-Liege this spring, and he’d love the chance to collect a second one himself here at Il Lombardia in similar late-breaking fashion.

Saxo-Tinkoff’s Alberto Contador was one of the many DNFs last weekend as well, but he was fifth in Milano-Torino, suggesting he has found some late season form after disappointing time and again in 2013. He’ll have allies trying to outrun the better sprinters on the final climbs, and he also has a strong team behind him. Rafal Majka was runner-up at Milano-Torino. He’s actually never won a pro race, but he’s come close a number of times and he’s got a great finish to match his climbing legs. Nicolas Roche finally came good after years of being touted with a great showing in the Vuelta, and he’s another option for the team.

AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo nabbed fourth in Milano-Torino. He’s had a very strong 2013 and he’s kept a high level of climbing form all year. Carlos Betancur looked better last weekend than he did during his disappointing Vuelta, and should he find the form that went missing sometime this summer, he could surprise for his team this Sunday.

With Bauke Mollema out, Robert Gesink leads Belkin into the year’s last Monument. He showed an impressive sprint in Canada and he’s obviously a great climber. He heads up a strong team: Lars Petter Nordhaug had a good World Championship race, Laurens Ten Dam is another great climber, and Tom-Jelte Slagter is a versatile rider with a fast finish.

Philippe Gilbert has won this race twice, as recently as 2009 and 2010, but that seems like another lifetime for the Belgian star. He’s still got a great kick but he isn’t climbing as well as he used to. It’s not entirely out of the question that Gilbert finds those legs on Sunday, and if he manages to keep up with the attacks from the climbing heavyweights, obviously he’s a big favorite to outrun them at the line. BMC teammate Greg Van Avermaet is similarly positioned, a great all-rounder for whom Lombardy’s climbs might be just a bit too much. Strong climbers Ivan Santaromita, Mathias Frank, and Tejay van Garderen may be better options for BMC than the former champ Gilbert.

Perhaps more likely is that Peter Sagan keeps up with Nibali et al. He just missed out in Florence, leading his group across the line for 6th place behind the climbing stars, and while Lombardy has more challenging climbs, it’s also shorter than the World Championship race. The young Slovakian has sometimes struggled in the most grueling of endurance races, and maybe with fewer kilometers to tackle, he’ll be more up for the ascents. His handling ability will be useful on the windy roads and he’ll surely be the man to beat in a sprint if he can hang on, though I don’t think the odds are in his favor. Teammate and two-time Giro d’Italia winner Ivan Basso finished 4th in Lombardy in 2011 and will be a better bet to stick with his fellow GC types. He showed good form in the Vuelta before abandoning on a day of nasty weather in the mountains, and he has a surprising finishing kick.

Omega Pharma – Quick Step has a stable of all-rounder talent who will also be pushed to the limit, but who are capable of surprising. Michal Kwiatkowski has a very fast finish and when he’s on form, he can climb at a very high level, and Sylvain Chavanel, in his last WorldTour classic with OPQS, is a great bet to try for a long distance strike.

A few other outsiders: Tommy Voeckler, Franco Pellizotti, Damiano Cunego, Chris Anker Sorensen, Alexandr Kolobnev, Rinaldo Nocentini, Warren Barguil, Thibaut Pinot, the Radioshack duo of Jan Bakelants and Andy Schleck, and Orica-GreenEdge’s trio of Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, and Simon Clarke, who was impressive in the World Championship road race. For anyone with ambitions of winning, it will be hard to overcome the odds in one of the biggest events on the calendar against the top talents in the world all on form from their championship runs, but the late season classics have been full of surprises and excitement this year.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Joaquim Rodriguez

Podium

Rigoberto Uran, Vincenzo Nibali

Top 10

Alejandro Valverde, Rui Costa, Daniel Moreno, Daniel Martin, Diego Ulissi, Robert Gesink, Michele Scarponi

-Dane Cash

Photos by Jered Gruber and Laurent Brun.

October 5, 2013