Tag: Richie Porte

Tour Down Under 2017 Preview

A revamped WorldTour gets started Tuesday in Australia with the 2017 Tour Down Under. VeloHuman previews the action as a familiar collection of names gets set to battle for the first stage race crown of the season over six days of racing in and around Adelaide.

The Route

The Tour Down Under has concocted a winning formula over its relatively short history, finding solid climbs and urban circuits to liven up an event with no small need of proving itself worthy of attention during an unorthodox time for most pros to race bikes. This year’s route stays the course with several well-known TDU locations, while providing a few new challenges that certainly fit the mold.

The race kicks off with a sprinter’s day from Unley to Lyndoch before the GC battle heats up with a more climber-friendly second stage. A tricky one-two punch at the end of the stage will likely create gaps in Paracombe.

The lumpy circuit that closes out stage 3 in Victor Harbor may also spring attackers, though tougher sprinters might be able to hold on. The speedsters will have another chance in stage 4.

The iconic Willunga Hill once again serves as the Tour Down Under’s queen stage on the fifth day. A pair of ascents to the finish line could decide the race, if it’s not already decided. A sprinters’ stage 6 closes things out in Adelaide.

The General Classification Favorites

The Tour Down Under’s unusual calendar location make it a somewhat unique target that seems to attract the same few contenders every year. Many are Australian, but not all.

Simon Gerrans is the defending champion, an Australian flying the flag of an Australian team. Elite on hilly profiles and packing a strong finishing kick, the veteran has the perfect skillset for this race—but at age 36, he is harder to see as the clear favorite. Orica-Scott teammate Esteban Chaves is a pretty impressive alternative.

Richie Porte and Rohan Dennis give BMC quite a one-two punch as well. Porte seems to be the guy for a very strong squad, and he has quite a history in this race, with multiple wins atop Willunga Hill. Not as punchy as other contenders, he has never won the overall title, usually lacking just a few bonus seconds to reach the top step of the GC podium, but with Gerrans another year older, maybe this is his year. 2015 winner Dennis can’t be counted out either, despite a stated focus on learning this season.

Neither of Sky’s Geraint Thomas and Sergio Henao is Australian, but this is a race that has seen both do well. Henao in particular has plenty of punch to hunt bonus seconds. Third in 2016, he’s certainly an overall contender this year.

The best-known name on the startlist, reigning world champ Peter Sagan, certainly merits a mention in the GC discussion as well. He’s certainly capable of winning this race, but motivation is a big question. It seems unlikely that he’ll be in form to outclimb a rider like Porte or Chaves on these hills in January, but you never know with Sagan.

Cannondale-Drapac’s Michael Woods and Tom-Jelte Slagter make a fine duo with punchy legs. UAE Abu Dhabi’s Diego Ulissi has had success in this race in the past, with just the right toolset for the short steep finales that typically decide the event.
Nathan Haas, Robert Gesink, Jay McCarthy, Jesús Herrada, Wilco Kelderman, Jarlinson Pantano, Gianluca Brambilla, Rafael Valls, Luis León Sánchez, and Lachlan Morton are others to watch this week in Australia.

The Stagehunters

Caleb Ewan looks to be the class of the sprinting field along with the aforementioned Peter Sagan, whose goals remain to be seen. Sagan’s Bora-Hansgrohe teammate Sam Bennett may also feature in the fast finishes, along with Danny Van Poppel, Niccolo Bonifazio, Edward Theuns, Mark Renshaw, Ben Swift, and Nikias Arndt.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

Winner: Richie Porte
Podium: Simon Gerrans, Sergio Henao
Other Top Contenders: Geraint Thomas, Esteban Chaves, Rohan Dennis, Diego Ulissi, Michael Woods, Robert Gesink, Peter Sagan

January 16, 2017
Paris-Nice 2016 Preview

The 74th edition of Paris-Nice gets underway Saturday, which means that WorldTour racing has arrived in Europe. The startlist may have taken a slight hit in the last few years, but the race still draws plenty of talent—the sprinting field is particularly strong this year, and several top GC names are also in attendance to battle for the overall title in the “Race to the Sun.”

The Route

Paris-Nice runs for eight days, starting with a short, flat prologue in the Paris suburbs. The organizers have mixed things up with the inclusion of a few dirt road sections in the ensuing Stage 1. That could make for an interesting day of racing.

Stage 2 looks to be one for the sprinters, with Stage 3 injecting the first serious climbs into the race. A Cat. 2 finale is likely to break things up a bit on the overall leaderboard.

The sprinters will have another chance on Stage 4 before an intriguing Stage 5 that includes a partial trip up Mont Ventoux—though the visit to the iconic climb comes earlier on in the stage. The three Cat. 2 climbs that follow Ventoux could break things up further, but a flat run-in to the finish will likely keep the stage from being too decisive.

The GC is likely to be decided on Stage 6, which includes seven categorized climbs, all of them Cat. 2s or harder, with a Cat. 1 climb to the finish line.

If that hasn’t settled things, the race concludes with a lumpy stage 7, whose up-and-down profile involves six more categorized climbs, the last of which is Paris-Nice favorite Col d’Éze.

In general, it’s a route with plenty of challenges, but one that lacks either a long time trial or any particularly massive or viciously steep finishing climbs. Bonus seconds could play an important role in deciding the overall winner.

The General Classification Contenders

Richie Porte won the race last year (and in 2013) and he will look defend the title this year, riding for new team BMC. The route, however, is less Porte’s style, without a tough time trial to give him the advantage over his rivals. Furthermore, Porte might not be terribly focused on defending his Paris-Nice crown with later-season objectives on his mind—Porte was incredible in the one-week races last year, and yet all the buzz around his season focused on his inability to pull of a Grand Tour win. The Tour is likely occupying all of his focus right now.

Alberto Contador is another two-time winner of the race in attendance. He too might have preferred some changes to the route, but he’s dangerous on practically any terrain and will have plenty of opportunities to put in a characteristic Contador attack if he’s feeling up for it in March.

Romain Bardet looked strong last month in Oman, and should be on-point in Paris-Nice. He has a nice uphill kick, which should help him in the bonus seconds game, and riding on French rides his motivation should be high.

Sky’s Geraint Thomas will hope to follow up a strong 2015 performance wither another this year, and the profile should favor his riding style. Teammate Sergio Henao is another strong bet.

Rui Costa has come close here in the past and should love this year’s route. He thrives on profiles that present opportunities for escape attempts, and Paris-Nice 2016 has plenty of those. He also looks to be in good shape right about now. Louis Meintjes gives Lampre-Merida another good option.

Underrated on the short, steep stuff, Tom Dumoulin should do well on this parcours if he is motivated to fight for a result.

The same goes for Wilco Kelderman and Luis León Sánchez.

Lotto-Soudal’s Tony Gallopin and Tim Wellens, Simon Yates, Rafal Majka, Ion Izagirre, Alexis Vuilermoz, Cannondale’s duo of Andrew Talansky and Pierre Rolland, and the Katusha trio of Ilnur Zakarin, Rein Taaramäe, and Simon Spilak are others who could get involved in the GC battle.

The Stagehunters

A bevy of strong sprinters should provide action on the flatter early stages. Marcel Kittel, off to a strong start this season, will be hard to beat now that he appears to be back up to speed after a down year in 2015. Alexander Kristoff, also very strong right now, will hope to best Kittel in the bunch kicks, as will André Greipel, 33 but still showing plenty of ability in the sprints.

Michael Matthews, Wouter Wippert, Arnaud Démare, Nacer Bouhanni, Juan José Lobato, and Ben Swift are others to watch in the sprint finishes.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

GC Winner: Romain Bardet
Podium: Alberto Contador, Rui Costa
Other Top Contenders: Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, Tony Gallopin, Simon Yates, Tom Dumoulin, Pierre Rolland

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Kat Rietberg (CC).

March 6, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Paris-Nice 2016

Episode 32: Paris-Nice 2016 Pre-race Show

The 2016 WorldTour has arrived in Europe—Paris-Nice is upon us! The podcast previews the eight-day “Race to the Sun.”

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Road racing is getting back into full swing, and so is the Recon Ride. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano take a closer look at Paris-Nice.

Photo by Conseil départemental des Yvelines (CC).

March 3, 2016
Tour Down Under 2016 Preview

The 2016 WorldTour kicks off this week in South Australia at the Tour Down Under. The race has delivered several hotly contested GC battles over the past few years (the last two editions were decided by two seconds or less) and a mostly familiar parcours and list of contenders should set up more of the same this year.

The Route

This year’s TDU is returning to several “traditional” — insofar as that word can be used to describe a race that has been around for 20 years — Tour Down Under spots, but the opening day covers new ground in the form of a sprinter’s stage to the town of Lyndoch.

Stage 2 will take the peloton on undulating roads from Unley to Stirling, where a moderately uphill finish could see the GC stars fighting for bonus seconds. The finish at Stirling played a key role in Simon Gerrans’s 2014 victory; nabbing runner-up honors on the day earned him a few bonus seconds, which proved to be just enough for a one-second GC victory when all was said and done.

Stage 3 sees the return of Corkscrew Hill after its absence from the race in 2015. The short but tough climb is followed by a descent into the finish line, which should set up some exciting racing.

Stage 4 looks to be a day for the sprinters, though a few bumps near the finish line could make things interesting.

A double ascent of Old Willunga hill awaits the peloton on Stage 5. It’s only three kilometers in length, but an average gradient over 7% makes gaps inevitable. It’s the last chance for the GC hopefuls to make their mark before a flat sixth and final stage in Adelaide.

The General Classification Contenders

Rohan Dennis took the surprise win last year in a tight battle against Richie Porte. This year, Porte joins Dennis at BMC, giving the red and black squad a formidable duo. It’s hard to say who will have the best shot this year—Porte always does well in this race even if he hasn’t won before, but he’s also going to be gunning for a Tour de France victory in 2016 and July is a long way away. Dennis seems more likely to have this race as a season target. In any case, both will be dangerous on home turf.

But three-time winner Simon Gerrans may be even more dangerous. He’s not the strongest pure climber on the startlist but the short, punchy stuff at the TDU is his bread and butter. He’s also an excellent finisher. If he’s in shape after a tough, injury-riddled 2015, Gerrans will be hard to beat, especially with the likes of Michael Albasini and Daryl Impey lending a hand.

Sky’s duo of Sergio Henao and Geraint Thomas packs a punch. Thomas was third overall in 2013, and is great on this sort of terrain. Henao doesn’t have much of a track record Down Under, but he’s an explosive climber who could surprise people in the fight for bonus seconds. As always, Sky can’t be overlooked.

Lampre-Merida also brings a nice one-two punch, with former podium finisher Diego Ulissi (third overall in 2014, when he also won a stage) and new signee Louis Meintjes. Ulissi has the perfect skillset to contend in this race, with an excellent burst of speed on the short uphill drags. Meintjes will be a fine alternative, perhaps on better form than many in attendance with the South African national championships around the corner.

Rubén Fernández was fifth in 2014 and leads a strong Movistar squad. He’s an exciting young talent with another year of experience under his belt and should be primed to take advantage of a rare chance to ride for himself at the WorldTour level. Katusha’s Rein Taaramae starred in several one-week races last year with Astana and will be keen to show off his talent for his new team. He’s smart racer who excels on a hilly parcours. Rafael Valls is another rider who will be looking to get his year with a new team (Lotto-Soudal) off to a good start.

Former winner Cam Meyer and his Dimension Data teammate Nathan Haas and climbing specialist Domenico Pozzovivo of Ag2r-La Mondiale are others to watch. So are Ryder Hesjedal, Julián Arredondo, Luis León Sánchez, Patrick Bevin, Jarlinson Pantano, Cyril Gautier, and Moreno Moser.

The Stagehunters

Australia’s Caleb Ewan will hope to thrill the home crowd on the flat stages, and I wouldn’t bet against him to pick up at least one stage for Orica-GreenEdge. His main rivals in the sprints will be Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, Cannondale’s Wouter Wippert, Movistar’s Juan Jose Lobato, and IAM’s underrated Matteo Pelucchi.

The always-aggressive Jack Bobridge warrants a special mention as a breakaway specialist worth keeping an eye on—now sporting a green and gold jersey after a brilliant solo ride at the Aussie National Championships last week, Bobridge will almost certainly be on the lookout for opportunities to get clear of the pack and do his own thing up the road, just as he did in 2015 when he took the opening stage of the race.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Simon Gerrans
Podium: Rohan Dennis, Richie Porte
Other Top Contenders: Diego Ulissi, Sergio Henao, Geraint Thomas, Rubén Fernández, Rein Taaramae, Rafael Valls, Julián Arredondo

Be sure to catch the latest Recon Ride for more pre-race thoughts on the 2016 Tour Down Under!

Photo by Brian Townsley (CC).

January 18, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour Down Under 2016

Episode 31: Tour Down Under 2016 Pre-race Show

WorldTour cycling is back for 2016, and so is the Recon Ride! The podcast gears up for January racing at the Tour Down Under.
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It may be wintertime in the Northern Hemisphere, but it’s racin’ season in Australia. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano talk route and favorites ahead of the 2016 Tour Down Under.

Photo by Visible Procrastinations (CC).

January 16, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Treviso › Valdobbiadene – 59.4kkm

Sacha Modolo’s victory on Stage 13 was not too surprising, but the carnage near the finish that dropped Alberto Contador (slightly) and Richie Porte (significantly) down the GC leaderboard was. Two weeks into the Giro d’Italia, there have been several days with major GC consequences that didn’t seem likely to have much of an effect on the overall race at first. Nevertheless, Stage 14 could shake things up more than any of those days have so far.

At nearly 60km, this is one long race against the clock. The profile could be split into two halves. The first 30km of the stage are quite flat, and will favor the larger engines in the peloton. The second half of the stage is a bit hillier. Things start off with a roughly 5km climb at an approximately 4% average gradient. Then comes a descent and another flat stretch, before another ascent into a rolling final few kilometers.

The sheer length of this parcours, and the lack of any serious climbs (especially in the first 30km) will put the ITT powerhouses in their element.

The Giro GC conversation happens to have several top all-rounders with elite time trialing skills who should thrive even on the flats, and in the absence of chrono specialists at the level of a Tony Martin or a Tom Domoulin, this stage is likely to come down to the pink jersey hunters.

Richie Porte is certainly among the favorites, given his excellent time trialing skills. Two days ago, I would have named him the heavy favorite here. However, both his morale and his body (his knee, in particular) appeared to be affected by the Stage 13 crash. 60km is a long time to be in a very specific position, and if Porte isn’t feeling great, or isn’t feeling particularly motivated now that he’s so far off track in the GC conversation, he could easily falter. It’s very hard to tell just how he’ll do. If he’s at or near his best in spite of his recent troubles, he should win.

Rigoberto Urán won last year’s Giro time trial, and he’s developed into an impressive chrono talent over the last few years. However, his form has not been at quite the level he probably hoped for in this race, and he recently crashed. Just as is the case with Porte, it’s hard to say how that will affect his chances, but judging from the riding he’s done since going down on Stage 12, I don’t think his fall had that much of an effect on him, and I do think that he’s been completely focused on this opportunity since the start of the race, so I’d imagine he’ll do pretty well here in Stage 14.

Alberto Contador has been a strong time trialist for a while, but he’s been stellar in the ITTs over the past 12 months or so. It’s an area of his game that may have been overlooked. In multiple recent face-offs that he’s had with Chris Froome in which most expected the Briton to put time into the Spaniard, Contador has come out on top. Unfortunately from a prognostication standpoint, Contador has taken a physical beating in this Giro, crashing multiple times. If he can’t position himself comfortably on the bike for the long period of time required in this ITT, he could suffer. Contador’s a fighter, though, and he can ride through pain better than most, so I think we can expect a strong ride.

Fabio Aru will probably lose time to a few of his rivals here, but his teammate Dario Cataldo almost certainly will not, and could challenge for the Stage 14 win, as might Tanel Kangert. Richie Porte’s Sky teammates Leopold König and Vasil Kiryienka, Alberto Contador’s Tinkoff-Saxo teammate Michael Rogers, Movistar’s Andrey Amador, Ion Izagirre, and Giovanni Visconti, Kristoff Vandewalle, Luke Durbridge, Patrick Gretsch, Sylvain Chavanel, and Ilnur Zakarin are other riders to watch in this very long race against the clock.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Richie Porte | 2. Rigoberto Urán | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 14 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 23, 2015