After Diego Ulissi’s second victory for Lampre-Merida in three days, the peloton will take on the first Cat. 1 climb of the Giro d’Italia in Stage 8.
The 186km journey from Fiuggi to Campitello Matese involves a whole lot of up-and-down, though only two of the climbs are categorized. From the start there are a few rollers leading into the Cat. 2 Forca d’Acero, which is extremely long for an ascent of that rating: 26km long and with a 5% gradient, it will most certainly wear down even the most adept climbers. From there the road takes a generally downward path, interrupted by a few upward stretches of not-insignificant length, toward the town of Isernia. Then it’s another mid-size uncategorized climb before the challenging final test to Campitello Matese. 13km at 6.9%, it’s not an awful road to the top but it won’t be comfortable for anyone after so many climbs on the day.
The profile should be pretty enticing for the breakaway, what with the constant up-and-down, and it will be very difficult for the pack to keep the break on a tight leash. Then again, the GC riders will almost certainly want to put the pressure on each other to try to open up the leaderboard at the top a bit, which could make it hard for those up the road to stay out front. What’s more, the upcoming Stage 9 looks even more perfect for the breakaway, and it offers an extra KOM opportunity, so those in pursuit of the blue jersey may be content to wait. It seems like a 50-50 proposition as to whether this one goes to the bunch or a morning breakaway.
Among the GC contenders in the bunch, Fabio Aru should be the favorite for success here. He has the most incentive to get separation on these mountain stages given his time trial skills, which are weaker than those of Alberto Contador and Richie Porte. He’s also looked sharp so far, and he has a powerful team around him. Mikel Landa’s GC position makes for a great asset to the team—Astana could send him up the road in pursuit of the stage win as well.
Alberto Contador also looks strong, but it remains to be seen how well he’ll cope with the challenges of the day. He looked okay on Stage 7 but this is a bigger test. With an almost guaranteed breakaway to come followed by a rest day and then a sprinters’ stage, he may try to take this easy. Teammate Roman Kreuziger is also high up on GC, and could be given a green light to go stagehunting here if he’s feeling good.
Richie Porte is the other obvious candidate. He’s climbed so well this early in this season that he’s got to be among the top favorites again here. The climbing on the day suits him quite well. Expect Porte to be aggressive trying to put his stamp on the race.
Esteban Chaves may get some leeway if he goes on the attack, and he’s looked good, if not fantastic, so far in the race. The same goes for Damiano Caruso and Darwin Atapuma; both are within 2 minutes on GC and strong enough climbers that it’s hard to tell whether the bunch would let them get clear or not, but if they do they’ll be dangerous—Atapuma in particular has looked great on the climbs this year.
Giovanni Visconti is amazingly within 1 minute of the Giro d’Italia race lead. He shouldn’t be a threat to the pink jersey in Milan, so despite his high position at the moment, he may be given the opportunity to go from afar—if he does, watch out, as he looks quite strong right now.
Stefano Pirazzi is no GC threat at all and he’s been aggressive, if not particularly successful, so far in this race. There are mountain points on offer here and a chance for Pirazzi to make his mark—I do wonder, though, whether he may want to keep his powder for the perfect breakaway day that awaits on Sunday instead, especially if other purer climbers manage to get into the Stage 8 early move. Edoardo Zardini and Francesco Bongiorno are other options for Bardiani-CSF. Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec looks okay so far in the race but he’s down on GC after a poor opening TTT and then getting caught out in the crash-filled Stage 2 finale. He could try to go for one here. Ryder Hesjedal might as well; alternatively his teammate Tom Danielson has been very strong in the breakaways all year, winning the KOM jersey at the Volta a Catalunya, and this could be a nice opportunity for him.
Franco Pellizotti, Carlos Betancur, Igor Anton, Ilnur Zakarin, Ion Izagirre, and Beñat Intxausti are others on the very long list of potential long-range victory candidates.
VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites
1. Fabio Aru | 2. Richie Porte | 3. Darwin Atapuma
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and remember to check back after the conclusion of Stage 8 for the preview of the next stage.
The Giro d’Italia kicks of the first three weeks of Grand Tour season this weekend. Last year’s winner Nairo Quintana won’t be at the startline, but the hottest rider of the spring, the best GC rider in recent history and last year’s runner-up will be, along with a host of other big talents. Every one of the major jerseys in the race (pink, red, blue, and white) will face fierce competition from a number of candidates—as Grand Tours go, things are pretty open for the taking in the 2015 Giro d’Italia, and that should make it even more worth watching. And more worth checking out pre-race content too, like the most recent Recon Ride pre-race podcast…
The Route
This year’s Giro route is a balanced one, with six or seven days that favor the sprinters (depending on how optimistic you are about the versatility of some of the quick men), about as many days for the GC types, several intermediate stages, a team time trial, and an individual time trial. It’s the sort of parcours that will require a complete set of skills to make it through with success.
The TTT kicks things off—at 17.6 kilometers it won’t open up massive gaps but it will give a few teams a not-insignificant advantage in the fight for the pink jersey. The sprinters and puncheurs, and the craftier aggressors will have their opportunities in the opening week of flat or rolling stages, though a small summit finish on Stage 5 will probably see at least a few GC hopefuls caught unprepared. Stage 8 is another potential GC day, with a breakaway friendly Stage 9 and then a rest day to follow. Stages 10 through 13 will be prime targets for the stagehunters as the GC types prepare for a critical week starting with a very long (59.4km) individual time trial on Stage 14. By the end of the day, there will be sizeable differences between the riders on the GC leaderboard.
But they won’t get to rest in the aftermath. Challenging mountains await on Stages 15 and 16 (the latter offers the viciously steep Mortirolo as the penultimate ascent on the day). The pink jersey hunters will catch their breath on a relatively easy Stage 17 before a difficult trio of mountain stages, culminating with a Stage 20 that will force the peloton to go up and over the incredible Colle delle Finistere.
Stage 20: Sint Vincent › Sestriere (196km) – The penultimate climb of the day will be among the hardest uphill challenges the professional peloton will face all season.
It may not have the name recognition of some other famous Giro mountains, but that won’t be much comfort to the riders climbing it’s 18.5 brutal km at a 9.2% average gradient. Stage 20 closes thing out with a sprinter-friendly day in Milan.
The GC Contenders
The trio rightfully receiving the most attention prior to the start of the race is that of Alberto Contador, Richie Porte, and Rigoberto Urán. Each is a complete rider backed by a strong team.
Contador, who has won this race in the past, looks like the top favorite. His skills are widely known. At his best, he’s almost unbeatable, and one might expect him to easily best Porte and Urán—but he’s aiming for the Giro-Tour double this season, and that may explain in part why his early-season racing has not been up to Contador standards.
Still, he’s put in okay showings all year long, hanging with the top favorites on the mountain stages of the one-weekers he’s raced, letting others be the main protagonists as he has rolled into Top 10 placings. In this race, which matters much more than Tirreno-Adriatico, expect Contador to fight harder. His form may be a bit of a question mark but his ceiling is so high it’s hard to look past him even if he’s a bit below 100%. Roman Kreuziger, Michael Rogers, and Ivan Basso (Kreuziger in particular) make for excellent lieutenants.
Richie Porte, on the other hand, has been terrific so far this year. He’s checked all the boxes in the run-up to this race, winning both on the hills and against the clock. Now all that remains is the big goal of his season. Thanks to his strong TT, Porte is best-suited to races with lots of chrono mileage, and the 59.4km ITT should be good for him. The big concern for Porte is his propensity to crack in a three-week race. As amazing has some of his one-week performances have been, he is a 30-year-old GC rider with just one Grand Tour Top 10 to his name, so often putting in a bad day in the mountains to ruin his campaigns. If he can avoid that this year (which is something that’s been said in the past) he should contend for the victory, with help from Leopold König, Mikel Nieve, and the rest of a strong Sky team.
Urán will hope to better his two straight runner-up performances. With Contador and Porte around, it won’t be easy, but if Contador is indeed lacking for form compared to Urán, for whom the Giro is the season’s main target, and if Porte does have a bad day in the high mountains, then Urán can slide into the driver’s seat with his powerful engine. And really, neither of those conditions is that unlikely, making Urán a viable contender.
Fabio Aru would probably be right up in there in the favorites conversation but he’s been sick this year and it’s hampered his prep. He’s a brilliant climber when in form, making him dangerous regardless, but the health is a question mark. The long ITT doesn’t suit him either. He’ll need all the help he can get in this race, though Astana brings a strong squad of supporters/potential alternatives with the likes of Mikel Landa, Dario Cataldo, and Diego Rosa.
Domenico Pozzovivo doesn’t have a flashy resume but he’s put in several strong performances here over the years and could be one to take advantage of the situation if the top favorites start looking at each other. He’s got an impressive uphill burst.
Former winner Ryder Hesjedal will hope to leave his mark on the 2015 edition of the race but Cannondale-Garmin teammates Davide Formolo and Tom Danielson may be even better bets. Jurgen Van Den Broeck of Lotto Soudal looked great in the Tour de Romandie. Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti and possibly Ion Izagirre will hope to carry the flag in place of Nairo Quintana. Expect at least one of them to do very well. Katusha’s Ilnur Zakarin will look to continue his great run; it’s pretty hard to know what to expect from the surprise Romandie winner here. Damiano Caruso and Darwin Atapuma, Przemyslaw Niemiec and Diego Ulissi, Damiano Cunego, and Esteban Chaves are other outside candidates for GC contention.
The Stagehunters
The sprinters’ stages should be a bit more unpredictable than they were last year, when Marcel Kittel and Nacer Bouhanni dominated the conversation in succession. André Greipel is probably the fastest “on paper,” but he’s lacked consistently of late and isn’t the type to win every sprint stage in a race. Giacomo Nizzolo could finally get that Giro stage win after years of trying: his top speed is impressive. Elia Viviani transferred to Sky during the offseason and will hope to get at least a little bit of support from his team on the sprinters’ days. Luka Mezgec will benefit from Giant-Alpecin’s always strong leadout but his early season has not mirrored his impressive early 2014 campaign. Sacha Modolo is extremely fast but can run hot and cold.
Michael Matthews, who wore pink and took an amazing hilltop victory last year, will return to fight for the bumpier sprint stages with JJ Lobato, who has been great so far this year. Matteo Pelucchi and Heinrich Haussler, Tom Boonen and Gianni Meersman, Moreno Hofland, and Nicola Ruffoni are other speedsters who could be in the mix on the days that end in fast finishes.
Watch out for the always aggressive Adam Hansen, Sylvain Chavanel, Maciej Paterski (who has been great so far in 2015), the entire Bardiani-CSF team (especially Stefano Pirazzi), which will be firing off breakaway attempts at every opportunity, and punchy types like Simon Gerrans, Tom-Jelte Slagter and Philippe Gilbert on the intermediate days.
VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Race Favorites
GC Winner: Alberto Contador Podium: Richie Porte, Rigoberto Urán Other Top Contenders: Domenico Pozzovivo, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Beñat Intxausti, Fabio Aru, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Roman Kreuziger, Ilnur Zakarin
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race, and keep an eye out for daily stage previews (the Stage 1 Preview is already up)!
Episode 12: Giro d’Italia 2015 Show, Part I The Giro d’Italia is almost here! The Recon Ride offers a boatload of pre-race analysis on the year’s first Grand Tour, with plenty of insight from a few of the riders who will be taking on the race.
[powerpress]
The 2015 Giro d’Italia is nearly upon us. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm cover the major storylines ahead of the race in the first of three Giro shows, with some inside-the-peloton insight as well, thanks to interviews with Giacomo Nizzolo, Matteo Pelucchi, and Adam Hansen.
The Volta saw it’s first serious climbing battle on Stage 3, with Domenico Pozzovivo taking the day after jumping from a small lead group that included Richie Porte and Alberto Contador, among others, with Alejandro Valverde (who had taken a small spill along the technical route) and Chris Froome a bit behind. Stage 4 will likely be even more decisive, opening with a pair of Cat. 1s and then finishing with the one-two punch of an extra-long Special-Category Alt de la Crueta (21 kilometers at a 4.5% average gradient) and then the Cat. 1 La Molina summit finish (5.6 kilometers with a 5.8% average gradient).
Such an up-and-down day is likely to see consistent attacks. It won’t be easy to control this stage, making a breakaway stage victor possible; at the same time, there are all-important bonus seconds at the line, and several powerful teams hoping to take the top step of the Volta a Catalunya podium, meaning that the peloton will likely work hard to reel in anyone up the road.
As tough as this day will be, the final few kilometers are not terribly steep. It’s feasible that a small group reaches the top of La Molina together, which would give the advantage to the climbers with strong finishing kicks. Alejandro Valverde again comes to mind, though after racing Milano-Sanremo and heading straight to Spain to start in this race, it seems likely that at some point, Valverde might start to feel a bit of fatigue. He’s still a top favorite, but there is that question of whether or not he can keep chugging along at such a high level.
The Chris Froome vs. Alberto Contador battle may have given way to a Richie Porte vs. Alberto Contador battle, and Stage 4 will certain offer another battleground for the confrtontation. Porte has the stronger team, with almost all of Sky’s top climbers. With the number of options Sky has brought to this race, their odds of coming away with a result are pretty good. Then again, Alberto Contador at his best would be the best climber here (with the only rider who might rival him, Froome, still lacking just a bit of form after his illness at the beginning of the month). Contador is a shrewd tactician. The question is whether he can come up with the right strategy to beat this juggernaut Sky team.
Rigoberto Urán and Dan Martin may get another opportunity after they lost out to Domenico Pozzovivo on Stage 3. If they can stick with the lead group at the end of the day, they both have great finishing kicks to go for the victory at the line. The same is true for Wilco Kelderman, though it seems a bit less likely that Kelderman will survive this tough stage with the top favorites.
Pozzovivo will be another contender here, given the form he showed on Stage 3. He lacks the top speed to win a potential reduced sprint, meaning that he’ll need to jump from whatever group he is in to do win this stage, but he’s had a lot of success in doing just that. Fabio Aru, Andrew Talansky, and Esteban Chaves are other strong climbers who could be looking to go on the offensive.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Riche Porte | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Alberto Contador
After a February break, WorldTour racing is upon us again. The 73rd running of Paris-Nice brings time trials and high mountains back into play after a year without them. The 2014 edition of the race favored punchy opportunists with a talent for nabbing bonus seconds, but this year’s event will put the more prototypical General Classification contenders in the best position to challenge for the overall victory. While Tirreno-Adriatico may have drawn the “big four” Grand Tour contenders, there are still plenty of elite talents headed to France this weekend to contest the Race to the Sun. As the European WorldTour opener, and the season-opener for many big names, and with another shakeup of the parcours, Paris-Nice offers plenty of storylines to make for an interesting race (storylines also investigated in further detail in the Recon Ride’s Paris-Nice pre-race show, which you should check out if you haven’t already).
The Route
Paris-Nice opens with a short, flat prologue of 6.7 kilometers. It’s hardly long enough to open big gaps on GC but this should be a close race so the riders hoping to fight for the overall victory here will be on their toes. A flat Stage 1 should go to the pure sprinters, and the fast men will likely get another chance on the similarly flat Stage 2. A very slightly inclined finish on Stage 3 could at least give the lighter sprinters an advantage to mix things up, but it should again be large group that reaches the line together in Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule.
The mountains arrive quite suddenly on Stage 4. Early climbs in the profile could prove a nice launching pad, and late climbs and winding roads a nice buffer, for a strong breakaway, but whether stage honors are on the line or not, the GC battle will be fierce.
Stage 4: Varennes-sur-Allier › Croix de Chaubouret (204 km) – After several day of flat profiles, a summit finish on Stage 4 will suddenly put the GC contenders to the test.
The Cat. 1 closing climb of the Croix de Chauboret doesn’t compare to some of the more grueling climbs these riders will face in the Grand Tours later this season but at the end of a day of constant climb, and this early in the season, it will very likely catch a number of contenders out. It’s a mostly gradual ascent to the summit finish but a high tempo from one of the powerhouse teams is sure to leave big names off the back before the line.
A few bumps along the road to Rasteau and an uphill drag to the line will make Stage 5 an interesting battleground on which sprinters, aggressors, and punchier climbers will all have a chance. The more explosive GC riders could be on the lookout for bonus seconds.
Bonus seconds could also be hotly contested on Stage 6, which is up and down all day long with a total of three Category 2 climbs and three Category 1 climbs. After the last (Cat. 1) climb it’s a long downhill run to the line. If the climbs don’t give the uphill purists room to get separation, a small group could descend the Côte de Peille together, which will guarantee an exciting final few minutes.
Paris-Nice ends with a 9.6-kilometer time trial up the Col d’Éze, also the final battleground for both the 2012 and 2013 editions of the race. The 4.7% average gradient may not look like much but past editions has proven that this is a chrono for the elite climbers.
Stage 7 (ITT): Nice › Col d’Éze (9.6 km) – Past editions of the race have proven that this climb is not to be taken lightly.
Under 10 kilometers though it may be, the Col d’Éze climb is going to open up gaps in the General Classification fight, guaranteeing that Paris-Nice will come down to the very last day.
All told, there’s something for everyone in Paris-Nice. Those battling for overall supremacy will need to battle through a variety of different challenges, against gravity and against the clock, to emerge victorious. Meanwhile, those hoping to come away from Europe first WorldTour race of the year with stage wins will face stiff competition with the long list of strong sprinters.
The General Classification Contenders
More so than the 2014 edition, the 2015 Paris-Nice route is especially favorable to the big engine riders who can fend for themselves in the time trials and long vertical drags. Coming off of a strong performance in the Tour Down Under (where his inability to consolidate bonus seconds left him just off the top step of the podium) Richie Porte is clearly in terrific shape for the year, and Paris-Nice offers him a a golden opportunity to put his National Championship-winning ITT skills on display. His great climbing legs put him in the lead a few stages prior in the 2013 Paris-Nice, and he clinched the overall win on that year’s run up the Col d’Éze, where no one was faster. Two years since then, with that challenging finale returning to the route, Porte’s GC bid will be difficult to overcome in 2015, especially backed by the powerhouse Sky powerhouse lineup that includes Geraint Thomas and Nicolas Roche as dangerous support riders or potential alternatives.
BMC’s Tejay van Garderen is another rider capable of battling with the very best in both the climbs and the time trial. Fresh from the Tour of Oman, where he was a close runner-up, van Garderen looks lean and on-form. In fact, he has a history of performing very well early in the season. The steady gradient of the Stage 4 finishing climb suits him well, both time trials should be opportunities for him to advance on the GC leaderboard, and he even has a bit more explosiveness than many realize should he find himself in a small group with bonus seconds on the line at any point. With Cadel Evans in retirement, now is the time for van Garderen to prove that he can be the sole GC leader of this team, and his combination of skills puts him in an excellent spot to do so here. Van Garderen also has an excellent team around him, with Rohan Dennis, climbing better than ever, as a very strong second.
Rui Costa was 2nd in last year’s race (and in fact racked up a pair of 2nd-place stage finishes along the way) but he has the skill set to thrive on the updated parcours as well, combining great climbing legs with time trialing chops that can’t be overlooked (though they often are) and the explosiveness and aggressiveness to win battles for bonus seconds. With Rafael Valls, fresh off a Tour of Oman victory, here as well, Lampre should be able to hold their own.
Multi-talented Michal Kwiatkowski will look to attack the GC leaderboard early even from the first day of racing, with prologues a particularly forte of his, and he should be in the mix for bonus seconds here and there throughout the race. At times, he has flashed brilliance even on the tough mountain climbs, but he has had a tendency to suffer a bad day in the mountains here and there in his career. If he can avoid that sort of off-day in Paris-Nice and stay close to the best climbers, he will have a great shot at the overall win.
Dutch rising star Wilco Kelderman had a very impressive 2014 and he will look to continue to develop as LottoNL’s GC star this season. Interestingly, he did not quite perform to (high) expectations in the chronos last year, but a 2nd-place ITT finish in Andalucia last month has him looking sharp and ready to race against the clock this year. Ever-improving climbing skills and a fierce finishing kick for the bonus seconds make him a strong competitor.
Rafal Majka of Tinkoff-Saxo will likely do a lot of work for Alberto Contador this season, but the 25-year-old Polish climber, 4th overall in Oman last month, is in great shape at the moment and won’t pass up an opportunity to mix it up in a WorldTour race. He is an excellent uphill time trialist who should perform well on the final stage. Fabio Aru of Astana also knows about being the second of two elite GC riders on one team, and with clouds of uncertainty hanging over Astana, now would be a good time for him to make a statement as the featured GC rider while Vincenzo Nibali is leading the squad in Tirreno-Adriatico. At his best, Aru would rival Porte as a pre-race favorite but his completely unknown form makes him more of a question mark. Teammate Jakob Fuglsang will be an excellent second, 5th here last year on a parcours that did not suit him particularly well. 7th in Oman in February, Fuglsang is the in-form rider. With Lieuwe Westra and Luis Leon Sanchez (two riders with results in Paris-Nice in the past) here as well, Astana will almost certainly be on the move at every opportunity.
Andrew Talansky is a question mark for form at the moment, not having raced at all in 2015, but Paris-Nice was something of a coming out party for him in 2013, and with a similar course he has the skillset to thrive again. Jean-Christophe Péraud was on the podium that year as well, but his form is dubious right now. Teammate Romain Bardet looks like the better option for AG2R. Mathias Frank is a massive talent in the one-week events for IAM Cycling. Warren Barguil isn’t much for the time trials, but with the uphill nature of Stage 7, that may not hurt him too much. He should fight for a Top 10. Katusha’s Tiago Machado, Simon Spilak, and Sergey Chernetskiy should be in the mix on the climbs and with their combined firepower, they have the ability to attack the GC leaderboard from several angles.
Simon Yates of Orica-GreenEdge, Movistar’s trio of Rubén Fernández, Beñat Intxausti, and Ion Izaguirre, and Trek’s Bob Jungels (who has a great shot at winning the prologue) will also hope to get involved in the GC conversation. VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar rider for Paris-Nice is Eduardo Sepúlveda of Bretagne-Séché Environnement. 4th overall in San Luis in January and the winner of the recent Classic Sud Ardèche, Sepúlveda is the complete GC package and sporting great form right now. For his team, motivation to put on a show at the WorldTour level will be high, and the 23-year-old Argentinian has the skillset to take up the charge.
The Stagehunters
The list of top sprinting talents making the start in Paris-Nice seems to go on forever. Though Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel won’t set out from Maurepas, the startlist does include André Greipel, Nacer Bouhanni, Alexander Kristoff, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, and John Degenkolb as the riders likeliest to contend for the sprint finishes. Michael Matthews, Heinrich Haussler, and Ben Swift will hope to get involved on the slightly bumpier days.
Punchy Arthur Vichot, Michael Albasini, Tony Gallopin, Philippe Gilbert, and Tom-Jelte Slagter will look to get into the mix when the road is too hard for the sprinting powerhouses, as may be the case in the finale of the hard-to-predict Stage 5.
The startlist is also overflowing with elite time trailing specialists. In addition to those mentioned as GC contenders, Bradley Wiggins, Tony Martin, Tom Dumoulin, and Thomas De Gendt are among the many in attendance who excel against the clock.
VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites
Winner: Tejay van Garderen Podium: Richie Porte, Rui Costa Other Top Contenders: Michal Kwiatkowski, Wilco Kelderman, Rafal Majka, Andrew Talansky, Fabio Aru, Beñat Intxausti, Romain Bardet
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Paris-Nice commentary and daily stage predictions, and check back soon for plenty of Tirreno-Adriatico pre-race analysis.
Episode 2: Paris-Nice 2015 Pre-race Show The WorldTour returns, and so does the Recon Ride, previewing the Race to the Sun.
[powerpress]
The WorldTour arrives in Europe this Sunday at the 73rd edition of Paris-Nice. After a 2014 parcours that eschewed the time trials and high mountain finishes, the event is returning to a more familiar route. VeloHuman and Cyclocosm join forces to dig deeper into the storylines of the race.
