Tag: Richie Porte

Tour Down Under 2015 Post-race Impressions: Australian Youth Movement Takes Charge

2015’s first WorldTour race is in the books, with Rohan Dennis emerging as the surprise winner of the Tour Down Under just ahead of a very strong Richie Porte. With plenty of great performances across the six days of racing, especially from up-and-coming talents, the TDU offered a few big takeaways to start the season.

Rising Stars Lead the Way

As mentioned in VeloHuman’s various pre-race publications, the Tour Down Under is often a coming-out-party for young and developing talents. This was especially true in 2015. Rohan Dennis was already a well-known rider in the pro peloton in 2014, but his Stage 3 victory in the 2015 TDU marked his first WorldTour win, and his overall victory made this an all-the-more impressive trip home for the 24-year-old Australian. Making Dennis’s emergence even more exciting was the generational battle within his own team: Cadel Evans entered the race as the nominal leader, but with a powerful (and quite surprising) attack in the final kilometer of Stage 3, Dennis muscled his way into the driver’s seat within the BMC ranks, and then held on to the overall lead. With a Tour of California mountain stage victory last year and now this win built on both climbing prowess and and explosive kick, Rohan Dennis has shown serious progression as a more complete rider recently.

But Dennis was not alone among the younger riders in the race: Steele Von Hoff, Juan Jose Lobato, and Wouter Wippert all beat out big names in the sprints to pick up their first WorldTour-level wins, and Jack Bobridge picked up his second (along the way to the King of the Mountains jersey to boot) by escaping those fast men in the opening stage. There were plenty of familiar faces near the head of affairs in the 2015 Tour Down Under, but the young guns showed up in force and put on the show. Niccolo Bonifazio, Ruben Fernandez, and George Bennett were other members of the up-and-coming crowd to make emphatic statements in this race, while 24-year-old Tom Dumoulin, 4th overall, continued what has been an impressive growth pattern over the past few years, climbing (and sprinting for bonus seconds) at a very high level all week. 3rd in the Worlds ITT last year, Dumoulin is clearly a lot more than just a time trial specialist, and the future is very bright for the Dutch all-rounder.

Bonus Seconds Decisive Again

For yet another year, bonus seconds decided the race, for better or worse, depending on your opinion of bonus seconds. For yet another year, the winner on Willunga Hill did not achieve enough of a gap to overcome the time bonuses picked up by a GC rival in prior stages; in fact, that makes two straight years for Richie Porte. Porte came into this race on excellent form and proved it in the final stage, but it was not enough to offset his deficit in the bonus seconds game. For having been in this exact position before, Sky’s tactics were questionable throughout the race: they did a whole lot of work on the front of the pack in the earlier stages, which only made it easier for rivals like Dennis, Evans, and Daryl Impey to get bonus seconds, and then in the queen stage at Willunga Hill, Porte waited until roughly the final kilometer to launch his devastating attack. He blew everyone off his wheel with sheer strength and won the day, but it was clear when Dennis rolled across the line nine seconds later that Porte had left it too late. Expecting to take enough seconds to close the entirety of his gap in the final kilometer of a not-all-that-steep climb proved tactically costly, and Porte paid for it; Dennis even thanked him for going so late in his post-race interview. In short, time bonuses don’t simply add an extra layer of excitement to this race; they have been critical to victory here time and time again, and Dennis showed once more in 2015 that potential race-winners would be wise to build their TDU gameplans with the battle for bonus seconds in mind.

Australians Dominate the Race

For the fourth time in five years, the Tour Down Under was won by an Australian rider. For the first time in several years, the podium was swept by Australians. Four of the six stage winners were also Australian, and a fifth rides for an Australian Pro Continental Team. On the one hand, and at first glance, perhaps the proper response is simply to be impressed at the consistent performances of home riders in this race. Plenty of international riders made the start, but Australian veterans and up-and-comers alike rode brilliantly on a variety of terrains to showcase their talents, suggesting that the state of affairs for Australian cycling looks brilliant right now, and that is without Simon Gerrans or Michael Matthews, among the biggest stars Oz has to offer, even on the startlist.

However, another conclusion to be drawn from all this Australian dominance is that it may just be time to find a way to bring the Tour Down Under a bit closer to the big races of the rest of the season. Domenico Pozzovivo was on the startlist and he rode well (finishing 6th), but if this race were just a bit closer to his main targets of 2015, one has to imagine he might have been in better form to challenge for the climber’s stage at Willunga Hill. Marcel Kittel, Giacomo Nizzolo, and Gianni Meersman were among the best-known fast men in attendance, and none of them cracked a Top 5 in a stage. And beyond these few non-Australian stars and the handful of authors active in this race, the big-name talents from the rest of the world were a bit scarce, with many top riders electing to start their seasons elsewhere. The event itself was a roller coaster ride all week long, but with a few scheduling changes, things might be made even better, with a few more global stars likely to not only make the journey, but to make it in form and ready to challenge for results.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Charles Wong.

January 26, 2015
Tour Down Under 2015 Preview

The wait is over! The long WorldTour offseason is finally coming to an end as things get kicked off this week in Australia with the 17th edition of the Tour Down Under. A six-day stage race in and around Adelaide, the race has grown bigger and bigger in the past few years, and the parcours has developed as well: heavyweight sprinters have won the overall here in the past, but these days, a hillier route favors the more capable climbers in the peloton. Those hills tend to make for an exciting return to WorldTour racing, and also welcome return to race preview season here at VeloHuman.

Note: a shorter version of this preview can be seen at VeloNews.

The Route

There are no Alpine inclines to overcome in the Tour Down Under, but the hills that feature in a few of the race’s six stages are more than enough of a challenge to keep things interesting. The first WorldTour race of the year opens with a short (132.6 km) and mostly flat trip from Tanunda to Campbelltown, ending with a long straightaway that should give the sprinters an opportunity to pick up a victory. Stage 2 concludes with an uphill finish that has featured in previous editions of the Tour Down Under, probably not steep enough to make any serious separation likely, but potentially a place for the punchier GC contenders to make a bid for precious bonus seconds. Stage 3 features a new climb near the finish line in Paracombe, a short but steep affair that will almost certainly see gaps appearing in the bunch. The uphill specialists with GC aspirations cannot hesitate to launch for glory on Stage 3, as it is one of the few opportunities they will have to get clear of the peloton in the Tour Down Under.

Stage 4 will take the peloton on an undulating journey from Glenelg to Mt. Barker, where a flat finish will likely deter anyone from engaging in GC action. Stage 5, on the other hand, is the traditional queen stage of the Tour Down Under, 151.5 kilometers from McLaren Vale to classic TDU climb Willunga Hill, which will be climbed twice. 3 km at an average gradient over 7%, Old Willunga will inevitably see a showdown among the top climbers of the race. Richie Porte won here in 2014 with a 10 second gap, though as has often been the case in the TDU, his margin was not enough to overcome the GC bid of Simon Gerrans, whose propensity to collect bonus seconds put him in the driver’s seat in last year’s race. In other words, it is crucial to finish well on Willunga Hill, but consistent performance on the other five stages of the race is also crucial.

Stage 6 closes out the 2015 Tour Down Under with a 90 kilometer circuit race in the heart of Adelaide, essentially a very long criterium that almost invariably favors the pure sprinters.

Looking at the big picture, Stages 2, 3, and 5 are those likeliest to see the GC contenders trying to position themselves for a showdown. Regardless of whether serious gaps open up there or on any of the TDU’s six stages, however, it is important to be near the front at every finish line, as the dearth of long mountain climbs makes the battle for bonus seconds critical to the General Classification fight.

The GC Contenders

Sifting through the startlist to pick out the major favorites for the overall in the TDU can be difficult because the position of the race on the cycling calendar (in January) makes form and motivation a major unknown for a number of the riders in attendance, especially for those non-Australians who are not coming off of Nationals week like the home riders are. The absence of last year’s winner Simon Gerrans (who is out with a broken collarbone) will only add to that unpredictability. Still, plenty of big names, Australian and otherwise, stand out as likely GC contenders.

Having taken an impressive victory over several talented chrono stars in the Australian ITT National Championship, Richie Porte has proven to be in blazing form this January. There is no time trial in the TDU, and Porte isn’t known for his finishing kick, which will make it difficult for him to play the bonus seconds game, but with his ability to climb at an elite level, that might not matter. Given his display of fitness at Nationals, he looks ready to put it on the line here and it will be hard for his rivals to keep him in check when the road goes up. Geraint Thomas was 8th here last year even while riding in a support role for Porte, and he was 3rd in 2013. His powerful engine and not-insignificant sprinting ability will come in handy here, making him an excellent potential alternative for Sky.

Cadel Evans leads a BMC team that will hope to take on the Sky roster. This will be Evans’s last WorldTour event before he retires in a few weeks, and he’s never won this race, so he should be motivated to give it his all (especially after missing out on the victory here last year by one second). Even at age 37, he’s still got a nice finishing kick to pick up all-important time bonuses, and will be dangerous on several stages. In up-and-coming Australian talent Rohan Dennis, BMC has a strong second card to play. Dennis is known as a time-trialist but he climbed with the very best in last year’s Tour of California, and he is continuing to get better and better as an all-round talent.

Despite the absence of Simon Gerrans, Orica-GreenEdge will take on their home race with several potential GC men, with Daryl Impey looking like the best option. Impey is deadly in a reduced sprint, and if he can gain an early advantage of bonus seconds, he might have what it takes to hold on over the harder climbs. Simon Clarke’s penchant for aggressive riding could come in handy, especially in a race where one strong stage performance can be enough for an overall victory. Past winner Cameron Meyer will be more of an outsider this year, but a rider worth watching at the very least.

Cannondale-Garmin is another team with options. Ryder Hesjedal, Moreno Moser, and Alex Howes are all well-rounded talents with the potential to mix it up on a variety of stages, but Nathan Haas could be the best man on the squad for this Tour Down Under. He is another rider who will hope to win the bonus seconds game, and he showed off his strong finishing kick in last year’s race on his way to 5th overall. He has a propensity to perform very well outside of Europe, with two Japan Cup victories and results in the Jayco Herald Sun Tour and Tour de Langkawi as well.

Giant-Alpecin’s dual threat of Tom Dumoulin and Simon Geschke will be dangerous if both riders are in good enough form to mix it up with the favorites in this race. Dumoulin has an underrated sprint to match his elite soloing ability, while Geschke’s fast finish is a known commodity that will make him a contender for time bonuses on the 2nd and 4th stages. Katusha has Tiago Machado, an excellent climber, and Giampaolo Caruso, who is more explosive than many realize. That makes them another team with a dual threat worth keeping an eye on. AG2R brings a stable of climbers as well, with Domenico Pozzovivo the most prominent name but with Christophe Riblon and Blel Kadri, typically very strong on hillier days like the ones that could decide this race, making the start as well.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers will look to get clear of the peloton at any opportunity. The same is true for Lotto Soudal’s Adam Hansen; the Belgian squad also Thomas De Gendt as a potential contender. Astana’s Luis Leon Sanchez won here way back in 2005, and having returned to the WorldTour level with Astana after a year with Caja Rural, he will hope to kick the year off in style; his combination of strong soloing ability, decent climbing ability, and a nice sprint make him a dangerous outsider here. Movistar’s Jose Herrada and Gorka Izagirre and LottoNL’s George Bennett are other outsiders with a chance.

The Stagehunters

On the list of fast men who are making the start with clear stage-winning goals in mind, sprinting superstar Marcel Kittel tops the list, but his objectives and his readiness to take on a WorldTour-level race are a big question mark. He won the 2014 People’s Choice Classic but was afterward a non-factor in this race. Obviously, if he is in good shape, he will be the man to beat here in 2015, but that’s a big if. Form is also an unknown for talented Italians Giacomo Nizzolo and Roberto Ferrari, but there are stages to suit both if they are here to race. Nizzolo has great top-end speed and the opening stage to Campbelltown could suit him. Typically Mark Renshaw might have trouble hanging with the aforementioned big names, but on his home turf, anything is possible. Etixx – Quick-Step will hope to start the year off with a stage win from either Renshaw or the versatile Gianni Meersman, who could feature in Stages 2 or 4.

Heinrich Haussler is another rider with the potential to shine on those somewhat bumpier days. He was on excellent form in the Australian National Championship Road Race, getting into the day’s early breakaway at first, and then, after that was reeled in, jumping right back into another move off the front, the move that won the race. With that form, he should be able to do pick up some results in the Tour Down Under.

Steele Von Hoff, Barry Markus, Gregory Henderson, and JJ Lobato are other fast men to keep an eye on here.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

General Classification Winner: Richie Porte
GC Podium: Cadel Evans, Daryl Impey
Other Top GC Contenders: Nathan Haas, Tom Dumoulin, Geraint Thomas, Michael Rogers, Luis Leon Sanchez, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tiago Machado

VeloHuman was so excited about the return of racing season that in addition to writing this preview, VH teamed up with Cosmo Catalano to present The Recon Ride Podcast, a pre-race show. Give it a listen! And as usual, VH will be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Kym Della-Torre.

January 17, 2015
Tour de Romandie 2014 Preview

A great classics season has come to a close. It seems like every race had a thrilling finish, and, amazingly, each top level contest was won by a different rider. As the final stragglers crossed the Liege finish line (check out the VeloHuman Ardennes week recap here, by the way), the pro peloton entered a three month period of pure stage racing, starting with the Tour de Romandie. Six days of stunning scenery running through the French-speaking region of Switzerland, Romandie has seen quite an impressive past few years: every winner since 2011 has gone on to win the Tour de France that year. A good mix of time trials and climbing makes this an attractive option for Grand Tour riders. Chris Froome won last year’s edition in commanding fashion, with top lieutenant Richie Porte placing among the Top 10 as well, one of the pair’s many impressive performances in 2013.

Stages 3 and 5 will bring the GC men to the fore at the 2014 Tour de Romandie.

A short prologue, a final time trial of only 18.5 kilometers, and no summit finishes practically guarantee a close fought race that will come down to seconds in 2014. Stage 1 and Stage 3 may be the best opportunities for the climb-happy types to create gaps, but they’ll need to be aggressive, and they’ll also need to descend well, given the steep run-ins for home they’ll face if they decide to attack on either of those days.

The Contenders

Last year’s victor Chris Froome would enter this race as the big favorite, but this season’s injuries and a very recent chest infection that kept him out of Liege-Bastogne-Liege raise questions. Sky’s insists he’s ready to go. It will all come down to his health, because if he’s recovered, a race in which one third of the stages are time trials is pretty much the perfect setup for a guy who is head and shoulders above his fellow GC types in that discipline. Sky teammate Richie Porte is in a similar boat, recently struggling with health issues but well-suited for the parcours should he find himself in renewed form. If Sky’s all-rounder duo are sufficiently recovered from their ailments, it’s hard to see around the team that has won this race in back-to-back years.

Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali was an 11th hour addition to the startlist, and one of the prime reasons I’m publishing the preview so late in the game! The elite all-rounder will relish the opportunity to face off against Chris Froome before the Tour de France, and he has a stacked team behind him. Nibali had a disappointing classics campaign but the abundance of mountains and time trials make this stage race more his style. Jakob Fuglsang is always a great second for the Italian Grand Tour winner. Janez Brajkovic (who has had a lot of success here through the years) and Tanel Kangert are additional members of a very dangerous squad.

Coming off a podium performance (and a stage win) at the Volta a Catalunya and a decent showing (6th) at the Vuelta a Pais Vasco, Tejay van Garderen is a top contender in a race with two days of time trialing. I found him a bit underwhelming in that discipline, and in general, at a Pais Vasco race that seemed to suit him, but he’s had a bit of time to rest and he’s building towards a July peak anyway, so I see him as a strong candidate for the overall victory here. Peter Velits is an excellent time trialist who was 9th in a Paris-Nice without an ITT, showing great climbing form in 2014—he’ll be a good second for BMC.

America’s other top 25-year-old all-rounder is another top contender here: Garmin’s Andrew Talansky will also appreciate the overall parcours. He has stated that this race is one of his biggest targets of the year, and he already has a history of success in the event—in 2012, he was 2nd overall to the man who the Tour de France that year, Bradely Wiggins. He rounded into form this year with a 7th overall at Catalunya. His combination of focus, tailored skillset, and past results puts him among the favorites. Garmin also sends Tom Danielson, 4th in last year’s edition, and the excellent Rohan Dennis, who is demonstrating a knack for success in shorter stage races early in his career.

Much like the aforementioned group, AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud will be a tough opponent in a race in which time trialing is likely to be a major factor. His 3rd overall at Pais Vasco came on the back of a top-shelf day against the clock. Finding yourself on a podium ahead of Tejay van Garderen and Alejandro Valverde is no mean feat. He should continue his stellar form into Romandie. Actually winning a big race is a skill he is still finetuning, but with an open field and a parcours well-suited to his abilities, Peraud could start winning soon. He was 6th at Romandie in 2013, and looks poised to better that result this year.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak was runner-up in this race in 2013 (and he won a stage to boot) and overall victor in 2010. This is favored territory for the Slovenian all-rounder, and he’s coming off an excellent Pais Vasco, in which he nabbed 4th overall. Short stage races with a good mix of mountains and time trials are his bread and butter, and I see him fighting among some of the bigger name riders this week.

Time trial mileage will play its part here, but so will bonus seconds, and Lampre’s Rui Costa combines a decent time trial with an elite stage-winning/bonus-second-earning jump. He had an extremely disappointing Ardennes campaign, crashing in two of three races and coming away without a big result. However, he will be fresher than he might have been had he raced a full Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the lack of victories in the rainbow stripes will motivate the always aggressive rider from Portugal. He has been 3rd in back-to-back Tours de Romandie, and he has won back-to-back Tours de Suisse, suggesting he knows what it takes to succeed in Switzerland.

The OPQS squad lining up for Romandie is very impressive, and full of potential contenders. Rigoberto Uran is not much of a time trialist, but he’s hard to beat on the slopes, with an explosive kick that he’ll likely be looking to use in Stages 1 and 3. Uran started off the year nicely by taking 3rd in the Tour of Oman, but then he seemed to fade a bit at Tirreno-Adriatico and the Volta a Catalunya. He skipped the Ardennes Classics this year to train, focused heavily on preparing for his main 2014 goal, the Giro d’Italia. He may be low on recent race mileage, but he’ll be rested and motivated to prove he’s back on form. Teammate Michal Kwiatkowski was a late addition to the startlist, and a major wildcard for OPQS. On paper, Romandie is perfectly suited to the wunderkind: he excels in time trials and he’s a very fast finisher who can get serious time bonuses, both skills that give him a leg up here. The only question for Kwiatkowski is whether he will be able to contest a race like this after going full-throttle in the Ardennes. He could challenge to win the whole thing, or he could just focus on stages, or maybe he’s just here to ride for his teammates. Tony Martin may be a legitimate GC contender with so much riding on the time trials. He can climb surprisingly well (he has always performed at a top level in the Tour of Beijing, despite a lack of chrono miles there). He was runner-up in 2011 to Cadel Evans, and with such a strong team to help on the climbs, he could be a serious challenger here. Thomas de Gendt is another good time trialist who is still looking for the climbing legs he once had; should he find them, he’s another nice alternative.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot impressed me with his performance in the Basque Country, even if the result was merely a 9th place. After Contador blew the doors off the contest on the first day, the race for the rest of the Top 10 essentially came down to hanging with the pack on the mountain stages and delivering a strong time trial on the final stage. Pinot did both. I think he’s rediscovered some of the form he seemed to lack in 2014. With a team full of opportunists like Kenny Elissonde, Alexandre Geniez, and Jeremy Roy, FDJ can send riders up the road to pressure on the other contenders.

Beñat Intxausti was 5th in Romandie in 2011. He hasn’t shown much in 2014, generally riding in support of one of Movistar’s bigger names, but he has a knack for succeeding when Quintana and Valverde aren’t around (he won last year’s Tour of Beijing ahead of the likes of Dan Martin and Rui Costa, and took a stage and 8th overall at the Giro earlier in 2013). Ion Izagirre put in a strong time trial at Pais Vasco, and his recent showings in that discipline (which helped him nab 2nd overall at last year’s Tour de Pologne), combined with proven climbing legs, make him another great option for the always strong Movistar team. With Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka, Tinkoff-Saxo sends a powerful 1-2 punch. Neither rider has shown much yet this year, so form is something of an unknown, and I’m not sure the TT-heavy parcours suits them, but they’ll be a tough team to plan against on the climbs. Cannondale’s Ivan Basso has had a slow start to the year but with the Giro around the corner I imagine he’ll pick it up here. Mathias Frank will lead home team IAM Cycling in his home country of Switzerland. 2nd overall at the Criterium International, he’s showing an improved time trial, and he’s always been a strong climber. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam will hope to make an impression with the rare opportunity to ride for his own interests. Trek’s hopes are in the hands of young Riccardo Zoidl, and I’m excited to see what he can do in this race.

Stagehunters

With a pair of days against the clock and a few stages that could end in bunch sprints, the Tour de Romandie is attractive some fine stagehunters. Marcel Kittel headlines the sprinters. He’s easily the class of the bunch, and he looks strong as usual this year after a dominant third Scheldeprijs victory early this month. Though he may not be daunted by the other sprinters on the startlist, he will have to work hard to make it over some bumps in the road, as every massed-start stage in this race has a few hills along the way to the finish line. Fortunately for them, Giant-Shimano has the fast-rising Luka Mezgec for the harder days if Marcel Kittel should struggle. He waited until the final day of WorldTour racing in 2013 to take his first victor at that level, but this year he has already racked up three WT stage wins, dominating the sprints in Catalunya. If Giant-Shimano doesn’t take a victory in Romandie, it’ll be a pretty big disappointment.

Taking on the Giant-Shimano sprinting juggernaut will be Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, Belkin’s Moreno Hofland, Katusha’s Alexey Tsatevich, AG2R’s Davide Appolonio, and Lampre’s Robert Ferrari.

Time trial specialists (beyond the GC guys) include world champ Tony Martin (who may or may not contest the overall), Movistar’s Alex Dowsett and Jonathan Castroviejo, and Orica-GreenEdge’s Svein Tuft and Michael Hepburn. The first day’s prologue is short enough that it might favor a powerful sprinter: don’t be surprised to see the likes of Marcel Kittel or Giacomo Nizzolo (2nd in the very short prologue in 2012) give it a go.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen
Top 10: Andrew Talansky, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Simon Spilak, Rigoberto Uran, Thibaut Pinot, Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowski

I’ll be tweeting more live analysis during the race, so follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter! The next race on the calendar is a big one: the Giro d’Italia is just around the corner, and there will be previews of both the overall race and each stage, so be sure to tune in. Hope to see you then!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Georges Menager.

April 28, 2014
Tirreno-Adriatico 2014 Preview

Top Talent Everywhere at Tirreno-Adriatico

Being able to watch two WorldTour stage races at the same time is almost too good to be true. Paris-Nice has kicked off already, and it’s been a thrilling ride so far, with three different sprinters winning the opening three stages; Bouhanni and Degenkolb were well above the competition in stages 1 and 3, respectively, and Moreno Hofland (VH did tell you he looked great this season!) made a brilliant WorldTour entrance on stage 2. There is even more action on the way tomorrow with the beginning of the “Race of the Two Seas,” boasting a start list packed with talent from all angles and specialties. While Paris-Nice took an unconventional approach to stage planning this year, drawing up a course with no mountaintop finishes and no time trials, Tirreno-Adriatico looks to be an archetypical stage race, opening with a team time trial, offering a few flat sprinters’ days and a few days in the mountains for the climbers, and then closing with an individual time trial. This race was made for a true blue GC rider at the head of a strong team.

Before I dive in: don’t forget to follow the just-launched @VeloHuman on Twitter for more news and views during the race! And as usual, if you just want to cut straight to the GC Top 10 predictions, they’re at the bottom of this post.

All-Rounder Roundup

True blue GC riders leading strong teams are all over the startlist. First on the docket is a rider who wasn’t scheduled to ride this race until just this weekend, when Plan A, Chris Froome (who was 2nd last year to Vincenzo Nibali, currently at Paris-Nice), withdrew from Tirreno-Adriatico with back pain. Richie Porte steps into his place. The Australian was set to defend his Paris-Nice title, but he may have lucked out; with his combination of TT ability and long haul climbing, T-A seems to suit him much better than P-N. He’ll also have the benefit of a great chrono team on the opening stage, as Sky brings Bradley Wiggins, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Dario Cataldo, and Ian Stannard as well. Wiggins was another late addition, and after he announced a plan to also ride the Volta a Catalunya, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sir Bradley with his own GC ambitions.

Tinkoff Saxo’s Alberto Contador nabbed 3rd place and the Points Classification of last year’s edition. He’s off to a hot start, winning a stage and taking 2nd in the Volta ao Algarve. He’ll bring quite a team to the 2014 race, with elite climbers Nicolas Roche and Roman Kreuziger (also looking sharp) to serve as impressive seconds. Tinkoff-Saxo will be a very difficult team to beat.

Nairo Quintana and his Movistar squad will also bring serious firepower, with a squad well selected for this race: Quintana will love the uphill mileage but he’ll struggle on the final day’s time trial; good thing for him that Movistar is likely to set him up nicely from the first stage with some top men against the clock, including Alex Dowsett, Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori. Benat Intxausti, Igor Anton, Eros Capecchi, and Andrey Amador (surprisingly 8th here last year), will provide quite a buffer of talent on the hills as well. With the kind of form he showed in the Tour de San Luis, Quintana could put serious time on anyone not climbing at an elite level right now. I think it’s likely he will.

BMC’s Cadel Evans has looked good in the early goings, and he’s won here in the past. With his all-round abilities, he can be a strong player in the GC game at this race. Other than Philippe Gilbert, he won’t have the name recognition supporting him that the other big GC guys will have, but Darwin Atapuma will make a strong ally on the slopes.

OPQS is bringing a pairing of potential team leaders, making it difficult for opponents to plan accordingly. One of the hottest riders in the peloton right now is Poland’s Michal Kwiatkowski, and he’ll roll into T-A as a great candidate for the overall, especially with the stalwart support of the team’s world-beating time trial skills giving him an advantage right out of the gate. He’s also a good pick to have the best final day chrono of any GC contender, as he excels in that discipline, especially over short distances. Meanwhile, OPQS is also sending top climber Rigoberto Uran, who will be a favorite on both mountain stages, and who will also be helped by the TTT. He was one of the strongest riders in the Tour of Oman, where he finished on the podium.

I think the top of the leaderboard will be very tight among these top favorites. All of them are big names with big support and proven Grand Tour style talent, with the exception of Kwiatkowksi, who makes up for what he lacks in experience with on fire form. But this is one of the most impressive startlists you’ll see for a one week stage race this year, and that doesn’t simply apply to the top favorites.

A number of challenger squads are taking a 1-2 punch approach: Belkin’s pairing of Robert Gesink (looking sharp so far) and Bauke Mollema will make them very difficult to plan against; both riders are very well-rounded, which will be helpful in this race. Garmin-Sharp brings their own top duo of Andrew Talansky and Daniel Martin, and there’s something for both of them here: Andrew Talansky has the big tank necessary for the long haul climb of stage 4 (and the finishing time trial), while Martin is just the type of rider to explode up the sloping finish of stage 5, and his style won’t be too hampered by the time trial, which will be short enough that he can probably cope; however, the form of both Garmin riders is an unknown. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo and Jean-Christophe Peraud, both excellent uphill sloggers and both off to strong starts this year, will make a formidable mini-train when the road goes skyward. Lampre-Merida could go with the hot hand of Italian wunderkind Diego Ulissi, a force in the bonus seconds game and a strong presence at the Tour Down Under, or with newly acquired vet Chris Horner, who, despite being teamless for most of the offseason, looked like he hadn’t lost much form when he took to the slopes at the Volta ao Algarve. Astana sends former winner Michele Scarponi, looking alright so far this year, and Tanel Kangert, who gets better at climbing every day.

Dani Moreno gets to race on his own in a rare occurrence, and he tends to do well enough as it is when he’s second to Purito; watch out for him here with bonus seconds in play and an ITT short enough not to disadvantage him too heavily. Thibaut Pinot pulled out of Oman, making his form an unknown, but he’s a contender if he’s in shape, though FDJ’s weak TTT squad won’t help his cause; Alexandre Geniez is another option. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is in a similar boat. Jurgen van den Broeck hasn’t showed much this year, but he’ll head up Lotto’s GC ambitions. Ivan Basso is yet another bringing unknown form but obvious talent. Robert Kiserlovski is probably Trek’s go to GC man, and he’ll at least have a decent start thanks to Cancellara and Co. in the opening stage.

Stagehunters

The list of riders here to chase stages is perhaps even more impressive. The four biggest names in sprinting will be in attendance, namely, Andre Greipel, Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, and Peter Sagan. Greipel looks amazing right now and Kittel took several wins in Dubai. Mark Cavendish got started a bit later than Greipel and Kittel, but he took a stage win against very talented sprinters in the Volta ao Algarve. Sagan is his usual self, probably just a hair behind the big three pure sprinters but always lurking, and he’ll be gunning for the slightly uphill third stage finish. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare (who can probably handle stage 3 as well), Lampre’s very hot Sacha Modolo, MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati and Michael Morkov will try to nab a sprint victory from the bigger names. Philippe Gilbert could also feature on the third stage. I’d love to see a guy like Sam Bennett take a stage win here but with such a talented field, it’s hard to see guys on the fringe with much of a shot.

Not to be outdone by the caliber of sprinting talent in attendance, the three biggest names in time-trialing will set out from Donoratico as well: Tony Martin, Bradley Wiggins, and Fabian Cancellara. The final stage will be a treat for fans of chronos with so many TT specialists and GC contenders with TT ability gunning for victory. Orica-GreenEdge seems to have brought a squad hellbent on performing in both the opening team time trial and the final short ITT, with Luke Durbridge, Michael Hepburn, Cam Meyer and Svein Tuft all making the start. Every stage of this race really will feature top talents in every cycling specialty.

VeloHuman Predictions

GC Winner: Nairo Quintana

GC Podium: Michal Kwiatkowski, Richie Porte

GC Top 10: Alberto Contador, Rigoberto Uran, Domenico Pozzovivo, Cadel Evans, Diego Ulissi, Robert Gesink, Andrew Talansky

Check back in soon for post-race analysis and the next VH race preview (Milano-Sanremo is less than two weeks away). In the meantime, look for more news and views @VeloHuman on Twitter.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Antonio Cinotti.

March 11, 2014
Paris-Nice 2014 Preview

Cycling Season Heating Up

The Tours of Qatar and Oman, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad (which showed us a seemingly improved Sky Classics Squad) and Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne (which serves as yet another piece of evidence that Boonen is Back) kept February interesting. Welcome to March, and the 0 to 60 feeling of going from scattered reasonably popular races to TWO simultaneous WorldTour stage races followed by a Monument classic. It’s pretty much nonstop racing from here until October. I know I’m ready for the excitement.

If you missed the recent announcement, VeloHuman is now on Twitter! Say hello if you like, and follow @VeloHuman for more news and views. And when you’re finished reading this preview, remember to come back soon for the Tirreno-Adriatico edition!

All-rounder Roundup

With only a few truly grueling climbs and no time trials, Paris-Nice projects to be a race open to more than just your typical top-shelf Grand Tour GC riders. With an abundance of downhill finishes, this year’s race to the sun should be see close General Classification, and the fight for bonus seconds will be fierce.

The list of contenders in such an open race is long. It might have logically started with last year’s winner, Richie Porte. However, in a late breaking update, reigning champion Richie Porte will not be returning to Paris-Nice. Sky reports that he will replace Chris Froome at Tirreno-Adriatico instead. Geraint Thomas, looking sharp this year, will now step up to take Porte’s place as team leader. His skills make him an asset on the undulating profile. David Lopez, who finished 2013 with some of the best racing of his career, provides another great support rider and potential fill-in.

Unlike Porte, Vincenzo Nibali hasn’t shown any signs of changing his mind on Paris-Nice, and he leads a powerful Astana squad. He was hot and cold in the Tour of Oman, but he tends to perform when the lights come on, and his descending skills will serve him well here. He has the muscle to back him. Tanel Kangert, Jakob Fuglsang, and Lieuwe Westra (2nd overall and a stage winner in 2012) are all very dangerous.

Nibali is an obvious choices for any stage race, but the nature of this profile offers a distinct advantage to the climbers with fast finishes. World Champ Rui Costa has started off the year in good shape, winning the points jersey at his home Vola ao Algarve on the back of several fine stages that netted him 3rd overall. He has the legs to hang on over the tough climbs, and the kick to fight for precious seconds at the line. Przemyslaw Niemiec will be ample backup.

Speaking of climbers with kick, Carlos Betancur looks to be rounding into form after a Haut Var-matin victory. He’s just the sort of rider to take advantage of this route. Don’t rule out Ag2R teammate, the up-and-coming Romain Bardet, who will share his teammate’s appreciation for the lack of a time trial in this race. Rafal Majka, of Tinkoff-Saxo, is another young climber to watch.

The smaller hills and lack of chrono miles might not seem like his style, but Tejay van Garderen is hot after a Tour of Oman in which his climbing was second only to Chris Froome. 4th here last year, TvG has the chops and the current form to improve on his performance. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman is similarly more suited to longer climbs and TTs, but he’s also looking good in the early season and clearly in a position of team leadership.

IAM Cycling brings both of its biggest offseason acquisitions into this race. Sylvain Chavanel has had quite a history in this race, winning last year’s points classification, a stage, and 5th overall and adding those achievements to a long list of successes here in the past. This year’s route, without many serious mountaintop finishes and likely to be heavily reliant on bonus seconds, will play out in the French veteran’s favor. He’ll have Mathias Frank as a dangerous second. Simon Gerrans may seem like the choice for OGE, but early reports point to Michael Albasini being the leader. The OPQS lineup at Paris-Nice is awe-inspiring, but they seem to be more focused on stages than GC; Jan Bakelants or maybe Zdenek Stybar look like their best bet for the overall leaderboard. Lotto’s Tony Gallopin may shoot for a rare GC placing given the profile, but it’s unclear what his objectives are. Same for FDJ’s Arthur Vichot. Simon Spilak leads Katusha’s GC charge. Movistar sends the brothers Ion and Gorka Izagirre as well as John Gadret. Trek sends the Schleck brothers, and Frank actually looked pretty good in Oman before a puncture ruined his race. Garmin’s Tom Jelte Slagter is a keen climber and a fast finisher. Other outsiders include Tommy Voeckler, Maxime Monfort, Jerome Coppel, and Arnold Jeannesson, to name a few.

Stagehunters

Given the parcours, we can expect to see several sprint finishes in the 2014 Paris-Nice. None of Andre Greipel, Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, or Peter Sagan will be in attendance but the list of recognizable fast finishers making the trip is very long, and one worthy of a rapid-fire roll call, with parentheticals where details are useful. Here goes… Riders capable of taking one or more of these stage victories include headliners like Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb (three wins already this season), OGE’s Matt Goss and Michael Matthews, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, BMC’s Thor Hushovd and Greg van Avermaet, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard (keep an eye on the rising star), Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen (very strong last week), Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Belkin’s Lars Boom (for the tougher stages; he looks great this season) and Moreno Hofland (for the flatter ones; he also looks great this season), Tinkoff-Saxo’s Matti Breschel, Astana’s Francesco Gavazzi, and Garmin’s Tyler Farrar and Steele Von Hoff. OPQS gets their own bit here, as they’ll be coming into Paris-Nice with guns-blazing. Tom Boonen is back with a vengeance, sprinting at a high level and bringing his usual endurance to boot. Meersman and Stybar are both excellent options on the bumpier stages. Terpstra could go for a long one. Nikolas Maes may not have the name recognition of his teammates, but he’s a viable option in the flat finishes.

Other pure sprinter types who can contend: Giant-Shimano’s Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg, Cofidis’s Adrien Petit, and a hot Alexey Tsatevich of Katusha. In addition to the faster overall contenders, watch out for the likes of Tony Gallopin, Simon Gerrans (looking very strong), Samuel Dumoulin, Enrico Gasparotto, and Arthur Vichot, in any number of stages in which their climbing skills might keep them involved with the GC riders.

VeloHuman Predictions

GC Winner: Rui Costa

GC Podium: Vincenzo Nibali, Carlos Betancur

GC Top 10: Romain Bardet, Wilco Kelderman, Sylvain Chavanel, Tejay van Garderen, Simon Spilak, Geraint Thomas, Rafal Majka

Remember to check back in soon for the VH pre-race take on Tirreno-Adriatico!

-Dane Cash

March 7, 2014
Tour Down Under 2014 Post-race Impressions: Big Names Battle for the Year’s First Big Win

Recapping 2014’s First WorldTour Race

When the season is in high gear I’ll only be recapping the bigger races or the blocks of bigger races (ie., the Ardennes week), but there are over thirty WorldTour-less days ahead and the six day race that finished in Adelaide on Sunday is more than worthy of some analysis. As such, I’ve compiled a few takeaways from the big January event.

Any sort of retrospective on the Tour Down Under that aims to draw conclusions with meaningful predictive power ought to make a clear disclaimer before offering any emphatic endorsements of this rider or that for the new year: due to its position on the calendar, more than a month before the next race at the highest level of the sport, the Tour Down Under is not always a reliable test of rider form for a new season. Cameron Meyer, who won the 2011 edition, and Tom-Jelte Slagter, winner of the 2013 TDU, proceeded to have anonymous seasons after their bright victories in Australia to start the season. Simon Gerrans, on the other hand, went on to nab his first career Monument classic victory after he won the 2012 edition of the race. In other words, perhaps the top form exhibited again by Gerrans this week is a sign of future success (and he is targeting Milano-San Remo again this year), or perhaps it is a poor indicator of probable form months from now: the point is simply that one ought to be careful drawing too many conclusions from this race.

The Narrative, and Takeaways from the Race

Caveats made, on with the analysis. The GC-leading quartet of Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans, Diego Ulissi, and Richie Porte were all particularly impressive in their 2014 WorldTour debuts. Only one second separated 1st and 2nd place, and only ten seconds separated 1st and 4th; all four won stages. Gerrans was a big favorite coming into the race (tipped by yours truly to win), and the other three were also included in VeloHuman’s pre-race top 10, so it can’t be said that there was all that much surprising at the very top of the General Classification. For what it’s worth, Gerrans looked on top form and displayed his trademark versatility, climbing with the best and sprinting for every possible second; should he maintain that form into the spring, the rest of the peloton had better watch out. Said versatility nabbed him the bonus seconds necessary to get the tiniest of legs up on Cadel Evans for the overall victory. Evans and Richie Porte both put in strong performances showing their own high level of form. Both are targeting later season Grand Tour success, and this certainly looks to have been a fine start; Porte looks to be aiming for success at the Giro this year, and after seeing potential main Giro Nairo Quintana take an emphatic win in the Tour de San Luis this week, the Sky rider will be happy to have had some success of his own in the meantime.

Of the foursome that quickly become the group of real contenders in this race, Diego Ulissi stands out to me as the rider whose performance is most worthy of a place in any analysis of this race’s “takeaways.” In 2011, the Italian put himself on the map with a Giro stage win, and he went on to pick up a number of smaller Italian races over the next year or so. Last year, he appeared to reach another level with a good showing in Paris-Nice and a stage win in the Tour of Poland before a hot October that saw him nab three Italian one-day race victories, including prestigious semi-classic Milano-Torino. However, so many of his successes have come either against weaker competition or at just one step below the highest level of the sport–and while his combination of explosive climbing and fast finishing have marked him out as one to watch, but he’s also disappeared on some of the larger stages. When he was not lighting up the Italian semi-classics, he was a DNF in the World Championship race and an also-ran at Il Lombardia. In the 2014 Tour Down Under, however, he went up against some of the sport’s very best and consistently performed at the elite level. He blew past Evans and Gerrans in Stage 2 after timing his sprint perfectly, and held onto his high place all the way through to the end, managing his podium spot with a total of four top 5 finishes in Australia, and it is that day-in, day-out consistency that he has been lacking. After this, I know I’ll be more confident tipping Ulissi to hold his own for more than a flash of brilliance in future races.

24 year old Nathan Haas proved to be perhaps the biggest surprise of the race. Although he won the 2011 Japan Cup Cycle Road Race with his impressive finishing kick and claimed 2nd in the 2012 Tour of Britain to Jonathan Tiernan-Locke, Haas has not had many chances to shine at the WorldTour level against the biggest names around. Not until this past week, at least. When pain from a pre-race injury proved to be the end of GC hopes for Rohan Dennis, Garmin-Sharp didn’t miss a beat, and Nathan Haas stepped right up to the plate. While he’s obviously showed ability in the past, I think it’s safe to say that not many people expected him to finish in the top 20 of every stage in the Tour Down Under, including a second place finish at the head of the bunch sprint behind Cadel Evans on stage 3. His consistent performance landed him 5th overall in the Tour. It will be interesting to see if Garmin quickly gives him another opportunity to follow up on his stellar trip home to Australia. Hopefully, we will have a chance to watch Haas building on this week again soon.

Geraint Thomas wasn’t really a surprise in the top 10, but it was nice to see him climbing at such a high level. As I said in the initial preview, I feel that much is said about Geraint Thomas despite a general lack of data, but his 8th place here, only a few seconds behind proven climber Robert Gesink, is another positive showing, especially given the fact the Sky was clearly riding for Richie Porte in this race. Daryl Impey, as well, wasn’t a big surprise in the top 10, but to land in that company while also riding in such successful support for Simon Gerrans is no small feat–Impey has really put together a fine last twelve months, and Orica-GreenEdge has surely taken note. Look to see Impey feature more as the main man for the Australian squad in races to come this year.

Though his legend has grown as he has built an amazing streak of consecutive Grand Tour appearances, Adam Hansen has only claimed a few major successes in his career (most notably, a Giro stage last year). However, the Australian nabbed the King of the Mountains jersey and a spot in the top 10 overall in the Tour Down Under with a noteworthy combination of the aggressive style necessary to pick up mountain points in a break and the endurance necessary to hang on in the bunch after being swept back into the peloton. His Lotto-Belisol squad, so often a sprint-first team, has got to be pleased with the showing, and they must be looking forward to the next race knowing that Hansen has what it takes to stay out front for the long haul, proudly displaying the Lotto-Belisol logo.

Speaking of Lotto-Belisol and sprints, there wasn’t really any question of competition in the two flat days at this year’s TDU. Andre Greipel blew away his opponents, and he did it largely thanks to his dominant leadout train. In stage 4, his leadout man Jurgen Roelandts was so strong that he finished 2nd behind Greipel himself and ahead of the designated sprinters of every other team in the race. Greipel’s stage 6 leadout was similarly impressive; from the moment he kicked it was clear the Gorilla would claim the day. Coming into the race, the sprints in this Tour looked to be a battle royale between Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel, but Kittel was anonymous throughout the week, his only success in Australia a victory at the warm-up prelude, the People’s Choice Classic. At age 31, Greipel is still riding high, and his leadout only gets better with time.

Astana and Movistar both failed to land any of their very talented squads in the top 10, which must be a letdown for both teams; Francesco Gavazzi and Javier Moreno both started well only to be left in the dust when Cadel Evans forced serious selection on stage 3. Trek’s Frank Schleck also had a rather forgettable trip to Adelaide, unable to hang on when the going got tough. That Katusha’s squad of unknowns could place a man in the top 10 (chapeau to Egor Silin, by the way!) must not sit well with any of those teams.

Fortunately, everyone gets another shot at glory relatively soon, as, even with a fair bit of time until the next big race, the 2014 season is officially underway. The Tour Down Under gave us a first glimpse at many of the big names in the pro peloton and the early classics should be a good opportunity for guys like Simon Gerrans and Diego Ulissi to show of continued form. Don’t forget about races like the Volta ao Algarve and the Tour Méditerranéen Cycliste Professionnel during the month and a half long drought before the next WorldTour race, Paris-Nice.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Kym Della-Torre.

January 29, 2014