After several worlds road races made for the puncheurs, climbers, and classics specialists, the 2016 world championship should come down to a bunch sprint. The Doha parcours does not much in the way of challenging topography, but if you’re a fan of mass gallops, this is a rainbow jersey battle you won’t want to miss.
The Route
Barring a race shortening for extreme heat, the men’s peloton will ride 257.5 kilometers Sunday in Qatar. The first 150 kilometers of the race will take the riders through the desert before they enter a twisting circuit on the manmade Pearl island in Doha. Though there are no climbs to speak of along the route, seven laps of 15.2km with plenty of hairpins and corners could certainly see some hectic racing.
The final 2km of the circuit are not without handling challenges, meaning that the expected sprint will require finesse in addition to speed—there is a right hairpin leading into the final kilometer, which then swings gently to the right on the run-in to the line. Positioning will be key in the waning moments of the race.
The Contenders
I see four riders as being the most worthy of favorite status in Doha: the top three fastest sprinters of the last few years – Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, and Marcel Kittel – and the reigning world champ, Peter Sagan.
To me, Cavendish seems best-positioned for the rainbow jersey given the excellent season he’s had and a course that puts handling and acceleration at a premium. The way he dominated the Tour’s sprints, it’s hard not to like his chances in Qatar.
German teammates Greipel and Kittel are worth watching too, of course, though each comes with question marks. Greipel can disappear in tricky finishes and hasn’t had quite the season in 2016 that he had in 2015, while Kittel, despite his incredible speed in peak form, just hasn’t looked at his best this year. Both are dangerous regardless, as is German John Degenkolb.
Sagan is the wildcard. He’s not quite as speedy in a pure sprint after a shorter Grand Tour stage, but anything goes after 250km and in a hectic finale. I expect Sagan to perform very well given his knack for placing highly in this sort of race, even if the win seems like a lot to ask.
Beyond those big names are several second-tier speedsters hoping to steal the show. Fernando Gaviria of Colombia and France’s Nacer Bouhanni are the two biggest names for me. Both showed by reaching the final kilometer of Milano-Sanremo this year that they can handle distance (though Gaviria crashed out of that race) and both have terrific acceleration. At the end of a long season, things could get unpredictable, and they seem most likely to take advantage if the likes of Cav and Greipel miss a beat. Arnaud Démare and Bryan Coquard are great alternatives for France should Bouhanni find himself lacking on the day.
Alexander Kristoff has not had a perfect year but few riders have his power in a fast finish after a long day. Giacomo Nizzolo and Elia Viviani give Italy a nice combination. Caleb Ewan and Michael Matthews are a terrific dynamic duo for Australia. Dylan Groenewegen and Danny van Poppel look strong for the Netherlands, while Belgium has Tom Boonen and Jens Debuscherre for a sprint.
Meanwhile, Greg Van Avermaet will be looking to surprise the sprinters with a late attack. Also watch out for the likes of Niki Terpstra, Zdenek Stybar, Edvald Boasson Hagen, and Magnus Cort Nielsen if an opportunity for an escape arises late in the afternoon.
VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites
Winner: Mark Cavendish Podium: André Greipel, Peter Sagan Other Top Contenders: Fernando Gaviria, Marcel Kittel, Nacer Bouhanni, Caleb Ewan, Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, Arnaud Démare
Episode 59: World Championship Road Race 2016 Pre-race Show
Has it really been a year (more, even) since Peter Sagan won his rainbow jersey in Richmond? The world title is up for grabs again in Doha, Qatar, and the Recon Ride is here to preview the course and the favorites.
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The sprinters get their shot at the rainbow jersey Sunday in Qatar. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a closer look at the route, the startlist, and the storylines, with some help from veteran cycling journo Andy Hood…
Just a matter of hours after the opening ceremonies, the men’s Olympic peloton will be up bright and early Saturday for the main event. It may not carry quite the prestige of a grand tour victory, but the list of top riders with Olympic ambitions this year is pretty impressive, probably thanks to a course that favors the climbers. It should be a fun ride.
The Route
The Rio road parcours is tailored toward the climbers, with a profile to rival any one-day race on the top-level calendar.
The 241.5 kilometers of racing will take place mostly on two circuits, with four laps on the Grumari circuit and three on the Vista Chinesa circuit. The former involves a 1.2km climb at 7% and then a 2.1km climb at 4.5% (again, done four times). The latter is more challenging, with a one-two punch of the 3.7km, 9% Canoas climb and the 3.8km, 5.7% Vista Chinesa climb. After cresting the Vista Chinesa for the third and final time, the peloton will descend onto a flat finale of about 15km.
The Contenders
No matter how the race plays out, it will take strong climbing legs to bring home a gold medal. That said, there are a variety of potential race scenarios here. The climbs (and descents) are hard enough to spring a solo attacker, but the flat run-in is long enough to maybe see a reduced sprint. There’s no way a big group arrives at the line together, but it’s entirely possible that one of the stronger teams is able to reel in any long-range attempts to set up a high-speed battle at the line.
In either scenario, Alejandro Valverde is a dangerous rider. With his form and this course (tailored perfectly to his skillset), he’s a five-star favorite. Teammate Joaquím Rodríguez will have a shot as well. If the Spanish squad is smart, they’ll send Purito on the move on one of the final climbs and allow Valverde to follow any counter-moves. With the likes of Ion Izagirre also on the team, it seems like a great recipe for success—then again, Spain has a history of struggling to get behind a single objective in races like this.
The Italians may be more inclined to go all-in for their team leader Vincenzo Nibali. He’ll need to solo clear to win this one, but that’s entirely possible on the lumpy parcours. If he’d shown stronger form at the Tour he might be might top favorite; as it stands, he’s still one of them.
France has quite a one-two punch with Romain Bardet and Julian Alaphilippe, a pairing I see as capable of playing a similar strategy to the one Spain ought to be planning. Bardet can try for an attack from further out, while Alaphilippe can look to outsprint a small group. They’re a dangerous duo for sure.
Chris Froome is drawing most of the attention on the British squad but I’d be pretty surprised to see the stage racing specialist holding his own in a one-day event. It’s just not his forte, though he’s obviously got the climbing talent to survive on the parcours. Geraint Thomas might be a sneaky better choice.
The Dutch team is loaded with talents. Bauke Mollema, Tom Dumoulin, Wout Poels, and Steven Kruijswijk are all viable options, with Mollema and Poels in particular standing out as strong options. If they ride an aggressive race, they should be able to land a rider in the battle for the win.
Dan Martin will only have one teammate around to help him along, but this is a terrific parcours for the punchy Irishman. It remains to be seen, however, just how well he’s recovered from the Tour.
If Michal Kwiatkowski had shown any form whatsoever since the early spring he’d be among the very top favorites for Rio. As it stands he’s still a worthwhile mention on the list of contenders, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him. Rui Costa, who preceded Kwiatkowski as world champion, should like the profile as well, given his appreciation for the long-range attack.
A strong Colombian quartet of Esteban Chaves, Rigoberto Urán, Sergio Henao, and Jarlinson Pantano, the Belgian trio of Tim Wellens, Philippe Gilbert, and Greg Van Avermaet, and Michael Albasini, Roman Kreuizger, and Michael Woods are others to watch.
VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites
Winner: Alejandro Valverde Podium: Vincenzo Nibali, Romain Bardet Other Top Contenders: Joaquím Rodríguez, Bauke Mollema, Wout Poels, Dan Martin, Julian Alaphilippe, Michal Kwiatkowski, Rui Costa
The Richmond World Championships week concludes with the elite men’s road race, which will decide who earns the right to rainbow stripes for the next 12 months. It’s been a long stretch of post-Tour of tune-up races, but it’s time for the international peloton to put it on the line in the fight for cycling’s biggest one-day prize.
The Route
The men’s elite road race runs 261.4 kilometers in total. Starting just outside town at the University of Richmond, the peloton will roll into a road circuit of 16.2km, completing a slightly reduced lap on the way to the first passing of the line then, and then riding 15 more to the race finish.
The circuit starts out fast, with mostly flat or downhill roads, but things get both lumpy and technical in the final few kilometers. There are three climbs to speak of that will likely spur plenty of action late in the race, with plenty of twists and turns thrown in along the way to give the attackers a hand in escape attempts. First up is the cobbled Libby Hill climb, 200 meters at about 8%. Then comes a short flat stretch and a fast descent into the foot of the very steep 23rd street climb, also on cobblestones, 100 meters at over 10%. After one last downhill run comes the Governor’s Street climb, 300 meters at about 7%. The climb evens out about 700 meters from the finish, though the rest of the way angles just slightly upward.
The Contenders
There is a wide variety of opinions on how this race will play out (a topic covered at length in the Recon Ride podcast p/b VeloNews, which is absolutely worth checking out). A glance at the cumulative vertical meters wouldn’t suggest that this profile is particularly difficult, but the climbs come in fast succession, the first two are cobbled, and things are technical enough that riders will be on edge all day. Throw in a high chance of a rain and what appears to be a less challenging course could get very messy.
It’s hard to say whether the race will come down to a sprint or to a late escape. The severity of the weather could make the difference. In any case, the flatter finish will make sprinting legs a major asset for the rainbow jersey hopefuls. There are several riders in Richmond who combine impressive top-end speed with respectable climbing legs and classics-style grit, and it is those riders who stand out as the top favorites for what has to be described as a wide open worlds road race.
Alexander Kristoff is certainly among the top names in the race. If Kristoff can bring the form he showed in the Tour of Flanders into this race, he’ll be deadly: he didn’t wait around for large group sprint in that race, instead attacking late on with Niki Terpstra and holding out for the win. If he can win on the more challenging parcours of De Ronde, he should be able to handle Richmond if the form is there, latching onto a small group if need be. Recent showings in the Arctic Race of Norway, the Vattenfall Cyclassics, the GP Ouest-France, and the GP Québec suggest that he’s in great shape. His Norwegian squad brings only six riders, but there are enough sprinters in the race to probably keep things under control, so I don’t really see the six-man squad at much of a disadvantage. Speaking of Norwegian teammates, Edvald Boasson Hagen will be an excellent second card to play for the squad, on blazing form right now and on a course that suits hits talents.
John Degenkolb beat Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo this year, and worked his own late-escape-magic to take the victory in Paris-Roubaix. Again, if the form is there, Degenkolb should thrive, though he hasn’t had quite a successful Worlds buildup as Kristoff. He also hasn’t had quite as much success on cobbled climbs over the years, so it’s hard to say how he’ll feel about Libby Hill. In any case, he’s a huge threat to win if he’s in shape, and a powerhouse German squad is ready to set him up for the victory. André Greipel is on the squad as well, and will be an obvious favorite if he can survive the tough day.
Peter Sagan has just the perfect skillset for this course: he’s an excellent bike handler, he loves the short climbs, and he can be in the mix with the best in a sprint. I will be very surprised if he’s not on the podium at the end of the day. A moto crash at the Vuelta interrupted his buildup campaign but he should still be in good shape to fight for the win. The biggest challenge will be the distance, as his Grand Tour stage-winning sprinting legs have often lost a bit of luster at the end of long Classics.
Michael Matthews is the other sprinting talent who stands out as a top favorite. On the one hand, I like his climbing legs and love his form right now after an impressive showing in Québec. I also think Australia will ride well in support of him. On the other hand, Matthews’s talents have not yet translated into all that much one-day success compared to his top rivals here, and a long and potentially hectic Worlds course will be a tough place for him to make the leap to the next level. Still, he’s a big threat, and his top-end speed may be underrated by some. Teammate Simon Gerrans is an unknown for Australia: the course suits him, but form is a total question mark after several crashes this season. Obviously keep an eye on the two-time Monument winner.
The Belgian squad starts the two riders I see as most likely to win the race with a late solo move, as well as a few other contenders. Greg Van Avermaet is my top pick on the team. This is a good route for him, with steep cobbled sections to escape the pack and twists and turns to stay clear. If he comes to the line in a small group, Van Avermaet packs a strong sprint. I expect to see him near the top of the leaderboard after 261.4km. Philippe Gilbert could also get involved. The climbs might not be as long as he’d prefer but he’s looked good this year and his strong team should be able to set him up nicely for an attack. Sep Vanmarcke and Tom Boonen are other good options.
Speaking of Classics riders, Zdenek Stybar should thrive here—he’s in shape, he loves cobbled climbs, and he’s not being talked about as much as the fast finishers. The former cyclocross world champion will shine if the rain makes things messy.
France has Arnaud Démare and Nacer Bouhanni for a potential sprint, but I like the chances of both Julian Alaphilippe and Tony Gallopin even better. Gallopin thrives in selective finishes, and Alaphilippe was active in the Canadian GPs.
Defending world champion Michal Kwiatkowski will have his work cut out for him trying to hold onto the rainbow jersey, but he’s an excellent bike handler and descender who will love the technical finale. He also showed good form in the Canadian GPs even if the results didn’t show much. It would be a mistake to underestimate him. Also likely to be overlooked a bit given the course, 2013 world champ Rui Costa could be involved as well after a strong showing in Montréal.
Niki Terpstra is my top outsider pick for the Worlds Road Race. He looked very strong in the Vuelta, he’s made great strides climbing on the cobbles, and he’s even got speed for a sprint. The Dutch team is strong and it’s been flying under the radar. Tom Dumoulin and Lars Boom are other riders to watch.
Spain may be nominally riding for Alejandro Valverde, and he certainly has a chance with the late climbs, but I’m eying Juan José Lobato as well. His season quieted down after a great start but he looked good in the Tour of Britain and is very fast when in form.
Matti Breschel always seems to show up for Worlds and this course suits him. Italy does not have a team that is particularly suited to the course, but with a huge collection of talents on the squad maybe something will work out. I especially like Matteo Trentin, but there is plenty of firepower on the Italian team. Taylor Phinney will fly the flag for the home nation. This course suits him very well, but it’s impossible to say how his form will hold up over the course of 261.4km in his first big one-day race back from injury. Still, his time trial performance hinted that he’s in good shape. Tyler Farrar is the sprint option for Team U.S.A. Ben Swift, Ramunas Navardauskas, Michael Albasini, and Sam Bennett are on the very long list of outsiders who could surprise the big favorites in Richmond.
VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites
Winner: Alexander Kristoff Podium: Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Matthews, Philippe Gilbert, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Juan José Lobato, Julian Alaphilippe.
VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of Worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.
With the big favorites holding back even as the pack crested the penultimate climb, it looked like it might be a less-than-thrilling finale at this year’s World Championships, but everything changed when Michal Kwiatkowski divebombed the circuit’s second to last descent, caught up with a fading break up the road, sailed past them, and stayed clear over the final kilometers. At the end of the day, a familiar trio, the exact same three that had stood on the podium in April’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege, received the medals at Worlds, but with a crucial difference: Michal Kwiatkowski came away with the win, having made a gutsy escape from his rivals and held on for victory.
Takeaways from the Elite Men’s Road Race
Michal Kwiatkowski took plenty of victories this season, in Strade Bianchi and in the prologue of the Tour de Romandie, for instance, but the big one-day race wins eluded him, just barely. He was quite impressive in the Ardennes in particular, but despite being inside the Top 5 in all three races, he was unable to grab the top spot on the podium in any of them. Now, he’s got his marquee one-day victory. He did it with the help of a dedicated Polish team that spent a lot of time setting the pace early, doing more than a little damage to wear down the peloton. In the preview, I mentioned Kwiatkowski’s support squad as something not to be underestimated. Thanks mostly to Kwiatkowski himself and countryman Rafal Majka and the bevy of WorldTour points they racked up in their stellar seasons, the team was well-staffed in this Worlds, and it showed. They made the race hard, and they kept their man at the front and out of trouble during a hectic day. Even with that strong support, however, it still took a massive effort to win the race. The performance highlighted the amazing completeness of Kwiatkowski’s skillset: his descending skills, which allowed him to open up the initial gap to the peloton, his explosiveness, which allowed him to break free from would-be hangers-on in the group up the road, and his climbing and soloing abilities, which allowed him to maintain his gap over the final climb and all the way to the line. A true all-rounder, Kwiatkowski will have plenty of opportunities to take more wins over the next 364 days while holding the title of World Champion.
With a kilometer to go in the race, Alejandro Valverde and Simon Gerrans were both well-positioned to fight for the victory, but in the end they were left battling for the lower steps of the podium. Given the small gap between Kwiatkowski and his chasers, it’s hard not to criticize the poor cooperation in the group behind: Philippe Gilbert was really the only rider putting in any work in the final few minutes, and had he received any help from the rest of the group, it’s quite possible that we would have a different rainbow jersey wearer in 2015. Given the stellar form of Simon Gerrans, he may have even been able to put in a few pulls and still won the sprint. Podium places are nice, but this was a serious dropping of the ball.
Another World Championship without a win for Fabian Cancellara, for whom this is always such an important race. He missed the move in the final lap and never had a chance after that, landing a disappointing 11th (though, outsprinting Ben Swift, Sonny Colbrelli, Michael Matthews, and Ramunas Navardauskas is actually rather impressive, another sign of a vastly improved finishing kick late in Cancellara’s career, even if it wasn’t worth much at all). Meanwhile, Classics rival Peter Sagan didn’t feature; the form was a question mark coming in, and it turned out that he just couldn’t make a difference in the end.
One rider who did manage to just eke out a Top 10 performance was Nacer Bouhanni: it may be a minor footnote in the history of this race, which will be remembered for Kwiatkowski’s brilliant escape, but the fact that Bouhanni managed to stick with the pack over 254.8 hilly kilometers is a big deal. His ride in Ponferrada, coupled with several nice showings on some of the Vuelta’s hillier stages, will help his confidence on the more difficult days moving forward.
For the second year running, and the third time and four years, the winner of the World Championship Road Race did not ride in the Vuelta. Neither did the runner-up, for that matter. Nor the rider who won the bunch sprint behind the escapees. The Vuelta has long been considered the optimal preparation for Worlds, but clearly, times are changing.
The Italian team didn’t have anyone inside the Top 10. I didn’t find that particularly surprising given their team selection, which I questioned from the start. They just didn’t seem to really understand the parcours, leaving riders like Pippo Pozzato and Giacomo Nizzolo at home and focusing their team around Vincenzo Nibali, for whom this was not a particularly well-tailored profile.
Lastly, a word on the Danes. Matti Breschel put in his fourth Top 7 performance in a Worlds Road Race. Big results in other races on the pro calendar are pretty rare for the 30-year-old, but he always seems to be in the mix in the biggest one-day race of the year. Meanwhile, teammate Michael Valgren spent a lot of time out front in Ponferrada, doing much of the work driving the pace in a group of escapees. He still managed to land 20th overall. The 22-year-old, closing out his first season with Tinkoff-Saxo, has a bright future ahead of him.
Check back soon for the preview of Il Lombardia, the season’s final Monument Classic!
The Ponferrada World Championships will come to a close with the Men’s Elite Road Race. Cycling’s biggest stars have been training and riding in tuneup races for some time now, but the weekend of the main event has arrived. With the rainbow jersey on the line and a parcours that should make for a wide open race, it looks set to be quite a showdown.
The Route
The Road Race takes place on an 18.2 kilometer circuit in and around Ponferrada, Spain. The peloton will complete 14 laps of the circuit, making for a total race distance of 254.8 kilometers.
Each lap involves a pair of climbs and also pair of tricky descents that, especially as the day nears its conclusion, are likely to see plenty of action from the more aggressive riders in the pack. First in the circuit is the Confederación climb, 5.2 kilometers at an average of 3.3%. Despite the low gradient, the ascent starts out with a few stretches that hit 8%. After the riders crest the climb, they will take on a very sharp descent. Then comes the Mirador climb, 1.1 kilometers at 5.5% but with two stretches (at the beginning of the climb and again near the top) of around 10%. Another descent follows, and the road doesn’t flatten out until there are less than 2 kilometers remaining before the finish line. The last few kilometers involve a few twists and turns, including a sharp right hander in the final 1000 meters.
There is a chance of rain in the forecast. If the conditions are poor, the technical downhills will get a lot more hectic, and what is already going to be a long day in the saddle will get a lot more uncomfortable.
The Contenders
A moderately challenging profile will become much more difficult as 14 laps are completed, but this is still a parcours that will appeal to those riders with a powerful kick. The Ponferrada circuit, much like a number of circuit races on the WorldTour calendar that have preceded it, has challenges to guarantee action before the finish while still allowing for a sprint as a likely outcome: the inclines never reach extreme gradients and the last kilometer is quite flat. Still, a lumpy journey of over 250 kilometers will greatly whittle down the pack, and a perfectly timed and determined escape attempt will have a chance at staying clear, and even if this does come down to a sprint, it will be a select group battling it out for the victory. As such, winning the rainbow jersey in 2014 will require decent climbing legs and the toughness to stay sharp after a long day in the saddle, and either the kick to outsprint the (likely somewhat reduced) peloton at the line, the power to get clear of the pack before the finish, or a blend of both, to stay with any late attackers and then outmatch them in a high-speed finale.
No other rider in attendance combines current form, a well-tailored skillset, and a powerful team quite as well as Simon Gerrans. He proved that he is in top shape by sweeping the Canadian GPs (his second victory, in Montreal, was particularly dominant), and with Milano-Sanremo and Liege-Bastogne-Liege on his career palmares, he is a proven contender in sprint finishes that follow difficult days in the saddle in even the biggest races. The climbs shouldn’t be a problem for the Australian, who also has the power to glue himself to any aggressive wheels should any late attacks look particularly dangerous. Holding out for the sprint has been his strategy in these sorts of races lately, but he is also an accomplished attacker himself. In any scenario, he is a threat, and he leads a very powerful squad. Teammate Michael Matthews is a deadly alternative, even faster in a sprint and also capable of handling a few climbs. Matthews, still just 24, does not have the same resume for the very long days (though he has thrived on the hillier profiles in his career, none of his big wins have come after this much distance) but he has shown remarkable versatility and shouldn’t be counted out given the likelihood of a sprint. With Cadel Evans, Rohan Dennis, Adam Hansen, and Heinrich Haussler also in attendance, the Australian squad is loaded for this World Championship Road Race.
As a reduced sprint does seem to be the most probable outcome, Peter Sagan is among the top favorites as well; no rider is as fast to the line after a hilly day as the 24-year-old Slovakian. When the Ponferrada Worlds circuit was revealed, Sagan was the first name that came to mind for many observers. However, form is a major question mark for the talented young rider, who has done little to prove himself in shape since his Tour de France. He has expressed his own doubts about his form in the media recently as well. It is that uncertainty that keeps him from being the top favorite. If he manages to marshal his ability by the time this race kicks off, however, or if this is all nothing more than a clever strategy to deflect attention from himself, Sagan will be very difficult to beat. It will be hard for anyone else who sprints as well as Peter Sagan to stick with the pack all the way through the 254.8 hilly kilometers to the line. He’s also a master escape artist, should the opportunity present itself to get away from the bunch. He leads a small team of only three riders, but this profile, which is less friendly to attackers than last year’s, somewhat downplays the importance of squadmates who might help chase down late moves.
Spain’s Alejandro Valverde will need for this to be a selective race if he wants a chance at taking the rainbow jersey, but several climber-oriented teams are here to help with that ambition. Valverde has a terrific kick and he should be in the mix if this comes down to a reduced sprint. In front of a Spanish crowd and aware that this may be his last chance at the World Championship, he’ll be highly motivated to perform. Daniel Moreno is another fast finisher for the home country, while Joaquim Rodriguez and Luis Leon Sanchez present yet more options to make this an aggressive event.
Poland’s Michal Kwiatkowski was among the Top 5 in all three of this year’s Ardennes Classics, showing his immense strength in the group finishes that come after long, bumpy days, but he’s also an elite solo artist and strong descender who could try to get away from the lead group in the final few kilometers if still contains a few of the purer sprinter types. An excellent Tour of Britain showed that he’s back on good form after a rough patch in the middle of the year. Strong seasons from a number of Polish riders guaranteed a large team for Poland in this race (which isn’t always the case), and that will boost Kwiatkowski’s chances.
Among the likeliest late escapees is Fabian Cancellara, who eschewed the Worlds ITT this year to focus solely on this opportunity to take the rainbow jersey. No rider on this startlist can get clear of a charging peloton quite like Spartacus, and a constantly improving finishing kick makes him all the more dangerous should he reach the line in a small group; he showed it when he won the 2014 Ronde in a high-speed four-man showdown. He was even 2nd in a bunch sprint finish in Milano-Sanremo this year, ahead of the likes of Mark Cavendish. After 250 kilometers, many riders will start to lose steam, but Cancellara is not as easily weakened by distance. That puts him among the very strongest favorites here, and while his best chance at winning seems to be an attempt at a late move, he’s a contender in any scenario. His descending abilities make him even more dangerous. Though only consisting of two other riders, his team has firepower: Michael Albasini has the climbing legs to make it over these inclines and a particularly impressive burst of speed at the end of a hilly parcours, making a very strong second.
Belgium has several cards to play for this circuit, and at least one of the squad’s many options should be in the mix for the podium. Greg Van Avermaet will almost certainly attempt to get clear alone or with a small group as the day nears its close, and with recent showings of good form, he is among the top favorites for victory at Worlds. He has had found it difficult so far in his career to turn near victories into actual wins on the biggest stages, but he has finished in the Top 7 in each his last four starts (with two victories), and should come into this race feeling confident. Former World Champions Philippe Gilbert and Tom Boonen haven’t shown quite the same strength recently as Van Avermaet, but both are specialists in selective one-day races. Sep Vanmarcke, though not as speedy at the line, is another strong rider after a tough day, and Jan Bakelants, Jelle Vanendert,and Tim Wellens are even further options.
Defending champion Rui Costa has a difficult task ahead of him. As an uphill specialist, Costa is not as well-suited to this parcours, which doesn’t have the gradients he’d prefer. Still, he’s a strong attacker with underrated punch, and he has a knack for being in the mix on a wide variety of profiles.
Rui Costa put in a strong performance against high-level competition in Montreal, his final WorldTour race in the rainbow jersey.
A repeat win won’t be easy, but Costa clearly has the form (he was runner-up in the GP Montreal) and plenty of motivation to prove that he has what it takes to continually contend for the rainbow jersey. Expect a strong performance from him.
France has a few strong options that seem to be flying a bit under the radar at the moment. Tony Gallopin has the skillset to thrive on the Ponferrada circuit: he is a quality sprinter (he charged to 3rd in the bunch finish in Montreal) and a particularly dangerous attacker on the hilly profiles. He took his two biggest career wins (San Sebastián in 2013 and a stage in the Tour de France) by soloing out of a small group and staying clear to the line. His versatility will allow him to be in the mix in several different race scenarios. Sylvain Chavanel is another rider who could feature in several different ways; he won in Plouay last month after escaping from a pack of sprinting hopefuls, and that may be exactly what’s on his mind here. Romain Bardet could also get involved, having shown some surprising ability in one-day races this year (in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and in Montreal). Nacer Bouhanni makes the start as well, hoping for a bigger bunch gallop. This circuit will greatly test his climbing legs, and he does not have much of a resume in races this long, but he showed improved uphill ability in the recent Vuelta, and it has increased his confidence in his ability to be involved in this sort of race. It would be a surprise if he held on all the way to the finish, but he’s among the fastest sprinters in this race, making him a favorite if he can hang on.
Perhaps a bit more likely to hang on for a potential sprint is Germany’s John Degenkolb, who has landed his biggest results by surviving difficult days to thrive in reduced sprints. His victories in Paris-Tours, the Vattenfall Cyclassics, and Gent-Wevelgem and most of his nine career Vuelta stage wins, as well as his runner-up performance in this year’s Paris-Roubaix, have come that way. His finishing kick has been stronger this year than it has ever been before, though he may have given up just a little bit of his uphill ability getting there; more worrisome for his chances, however, is his recent bout with illness. Degenkolb was recently hospitalized while fighting an infection that he picked up in the Vuelta, and that trip certainly wasn’t a welcome addition to his training schedule. If the form is there, he could contend for the victory, but it’s hard to say how strong he is right now. Andre Greipel makes the start as well, though he’s a long shot to make it to the finish; Simon Geschke, a specialist on the hilly days, may be a better bet to survive. Tony Martin is another elite rider who can’t be counted out when a profile offers opportunities for solo moves.
Alexander Kristoff will share John Degenkolb’s ambition of surviving the tough day for a sprint finish. He wasn’t much of a factor in Quebec or Montreal recently, but the Ponferrada circuit should be a bit less climber-oriented, and Kristoff also thrives on the very long days in the saddle, and the Worlds parcours always is a long one. He won’t have an easy time of holding out for a bunch finish, but it’s hard to imagine anyone beating him if he’s there. Edvald Boasson Hagen and Lars Petter Nordhaug are both strong alternatives on this profile.
Tom Dumoulin was a top performer in Canada, 2nd in Quebec and 6th in Montreal. He has carried top-notch form into Ponferrada, and it helped him reach the podium in the ITT championship, where he was not far behind Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins. Dumoulin would prefer a course more favorable to attackers, but he is an excellent solo artist who will have a better chance than most at pulling off a late strike, and he has an ever-improving finishing sprint to help him outgun a select group should it come to that.
Tom Dumoulin has had a very strong September, with podium performances in Quebec and in the World Championship ITT. His soloing ability makes him a threat in the Road Race.
Teammate Tom-Jelte Slagter is well-suited to this parcours, and will be another strong option. Garmin was riding for Ramunas Navardauskas in Canada, but Slagter was 11th in Quebec and 12th in Montreal, suggesting that the form is there right now. With versatile Bauke Mollema, Wout Poels, Wilco Kelderman, and Pieter Weening all making the start as well, the Dutch squad may not have any one rider among the top few favorites for the race, but there is a lot of firepower here for a strong outside bid at the rainbow stripes.
The aforementioned Ramunas Navardauskas makes for a quality dark horse contender in this race, with just the right blend of climbing legs, attacking ability, and finishing kick to be dangerous on this profile. Ireland’s Dan Martin leads a small but capable squad, and the winner of last year’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege has both the form (which he proved with his first Grand Tour Top 10 in the Vuelta) and the skillset to make a challenge here. The Italian squad seems to be rallying behind Tour de France winner Vincenzo Nibali, who will hope to make an escape on the late climbs and then hold out on the last descent and final flat stretch; it may seem strange to mention the Italian team this late in the preview, but it’s hard to see their climber-centric squad selection as anything other than odd on this parcours. Daniele Bennati and Sonny Colbrelli could feature in a reduced sprint, while Alessandro De Marchi and Giovanni Visconti will be alternative options for a solo move. Unsurprisingly, Colombia also has a squad that will push for a very selective race, though it’s hard to name any one rider as their best hope; when at their best, Julian Arredondo, Carlos Betancur, and Rigoberto Uran all have the skillsets for this parcours, but none of them came out of the Vuelta on a particularly positive note. Zdenek Stybar of the Czech Republic, Denmark’s Matti Breschel, South Africa’s Daryl Impey, Russia’s Alexandr Kolobnev and Great Britain’s Ben Swift and Geraint Thomas are others on the list of potential protagonists on this parcours.
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Winner: Simon Gerrans Podium: Peter Sagan, Fabian Cancellara Other Top Contenders: Alejandro Valverde, Michal Kwiatkowski, Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff, Rui Costa
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of the battle for the rainbow jersey! And stay tuned for post-race analysis and, of course, the preview of the season’s final Monument Classic, Il Lombardia.
