Tag: Rui Costa

Tour de Suisse 2014 Preview

As the Criterium du Dauphine is heading towards its conclusion, the second major Tour de France tuneup race kicks off Saturday: the Tour de Suisse. Much like its French cousin, the Suisse features a diverse array of challenges, with time trials, sprinters’ days, hilly stages, and mountaintop finishes. The good mix of profiles draws an impressive startlist of riders, many of whom are using the nine-day event to perfect their form leading into July’s main event.

While the biggest GC names of the Tour de France have preferred to use the Dauphine as their warmup of choice in recent years, the Suisse has drawn some major protagonists as well. Current rainbow jersey wearer Rui Costa is the defending champion; he followed up on his 2013 Suisse with a pair of stage wins in the Tour. Meanwhile, Peter Sagan has won the Points Classification of the Tour de Suisse prior to both of his Green Jerseys in the Tour de France. Costa and Sagan are on a long list of returning riders likely to feature again. As a note: most of the big names on the provisional startlist look set to go, but the official startlist is not completely finalized at this point, so keep an eye out for late additions and subtractions.

The Route

The 78th Tour de Suisse begins with a 9.4 kilometer time trial. While short, it involves a tough climb and a tricky descent, so it’s not going to be as simple or as speedy as last year’s mostly flat out-and-back prologue. Stage 2 has some tough climbs (two HC-rated mountains and then a Cat. 2) in the middle of the day, followed by a late Category 2, but a downhill and then flat final 21 kilometers could limit GC action. The third stage has some bumps along the way and an uncategorized uphill finish. Stage 4 and Stage 5 are mostly flat days likely for the sprinters.

Stage 9: Martigny › Saas-Fee (156.5 km) – A challenging climb closes out the final stage of the Tour de Suisse, ensuring that the GC battle will go all the way down to the wire.

Stage 6 has a late climb that could inspire punchy riders to make moves. A 24.7 kilometer time trial on Stage 7 will have major GC implications. It does have a few bumps to offer some consolation to the pure climbers, but it’s a far cry from the hill climb chrono that finished the 2013 TdS. The uphill specialists will look forward to the following two days. A Hors Categorie ascent to Verbier closes out Stage 8. Stage 9 will guarantee an open fight for GC to the final meters of the Tour de Suisse: it’s a short one at 156.5 km, but the profile will challenge the peloton with a Cat. 1, a Cat. 2, another Cat. 1, and then an HC-rated summit finish where the Tour de Suisse will crown its overall victor.

The General Classification Contenders

Lampre’s Rui Costa has won the past two editions of the Tour de Suisse. This is a race that he knows how to win, and a stage on which he loves to shine. His very versatile array of skills (climbing legs, a fair bit of punch, and an underrated time trial) are well-suited to varied profiles of the weeklong event. He showed excellent form this year in Switzerland’s other major stage race, the Tour de Romandie, where he was 3rd behind Chris Froome and Simon Spilak. Riding as his team’s main option in the upcoming Tour de France for the first time, Costa will be eager to put his talents on display. He will also be eager to pick up his first win in the rainbow jersey, and this may be his best chance all year.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema was runner-up and a stage winner in 2013 and he will be hunting continued success this year. He, too, sports a very strong combination of talents that will keep him comfortable in both the hills and the high mountains of the race. Belkin sends an excellent squad to support his amibitions, with climbing expert Laurens Ten Dam to play the role of second. Mollema has all the tools to contend for the overall victory in the 2014 Tour de Suisse.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger rounded out the 2013 podium (and he actually won this race back in 2008) and he will again have a shot at a good result this year. Kreuziger is Alberto Contador’s top lieutenant in the Tour de France, but at the TdS he has the chance to ride for his own ambitions, and he will be an excellent bet to achieve his goals, given his well-rounded skillset. Kreuziger had a hot start to the year but has not raced in over a month; however, with Tinkoff-Saxo’s main target approaching, he should be getting back up to top form now.

Sky’s Bradley Wiggins will certainly bring excitement to the race, especially coming off a Tour of California victory, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him. He worked himself down to a GC-oriented weight for his AToC bid, but now that he does not plan on riding in La Grand Boucle, he may refocus his approach to prep himself for time trialing and track goals to come. Obviously, with the motivation and focus, Wiggins is a major contender, but there are enough question marks that I don’t see him as the top favorite he is capable of being. Teammate Dario Cataldo couldn’t quite come away with a victory in the Giro d’Italia but he looked great throughout that race and could feature as a fringe contender with two time trials on the route. It is worth noting that Sky is also sending Sergio Henao to the Tour de Suisse, his first race since an extended break from competition.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot should be able to land himself another good result (he was 4th last year). He has shown an improved time trial this year, outperforming expectations in Pais Vasco and Romandie, and the ability to limit his losses in a discipline that troubled him in the past will be critical with this route. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank (5th in 2013) is another rider I expect to see at the very top. He, too, has displayed a more balanced approach in 2014, and he has a knack for success in races that take place in his home nation. He led the 2013 Tour de Suisse into the final day, but ultimately fell several placings with a lackluster performance on the last stage, a hill climb ITT. With that on his mind, and now the sole leader on a new team, Frank is likely to be a major protagonist.

BMC’s Cadel Evans and AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo are both only a few days removed from the Giro d’Italia. Wilco Kelderman has shown in the Dauphine that it’s possible to carry that Grand Tour form even into the middle of June, but it won’t be easy. Evans was fading as the Giro drew to a close, so it will be a big ask for him to continue to perform at a high level here. Pozzovivo battled illness in the Giro’s final week, but he maintained his strong performance through the last days of the race, and he may have more in the tank. Christophe Riblon makes for another excellent option for AG2R. The climbing expert (and Alpe d’Huez winner) showed an improved time trial in last year’s Tour de Pologne, and he’ll be motivated to perform leading into the Tour de France. Carlos Betancur was supposed to ride this race, but recent news suggests that he is skipping the Suisse, and possibly even the Tour de France.

Movistar’s Ion Izagirre is a vastly underrated GC performer who has flashed strong chrono chops to complement his excellent climbing skills recently. Rarely given the opportunity to ride for his own ambitions, he will have a nice shot at success here. Eros Cappechi is one of a number of strong teammates. Garmin is another very strong all-round squad led by riders who often play lieutenant roles. Rohan Dennis was 2nd only to Bradley Wiggins in the Tour of California. His time trialing prowess is well-known, but he has worked to better himself on the slopes in 2014 and it has really paid off. Teammates Janier Acevedo is a pure climber who will look to light up the late mountain stages, and Tom Danielson may feature in a similar role.

Giant-Shimano’s trio of Warren Barguil, Lawson Craddock, and Tom Dumoulin pack a particularly strong punch. Barguil has the climbing saavy to survive the late climbs. Craddock and Dumoulin are both excellent all-rounders who will look to jump to an early advantage in the time trial. Tony Martin of OPQS will likely be well-placed after that opening chrono as well, and he has decent climbing legs to boot. It wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see him hunting a GC result. Trek’s Schleck brother duo will hope to pick up a decent result; Frank has had something of a resurgence this year. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort, strong in the time trial, could put up a nice performance. MTN-Qhubeka’s Louis Meintjes is a fast-rising, versatile rider who is just coming into his own. His team may surprise some—they have a lot of talent for a variety of scenarios, and Meintjes can hang with the big guns when the road goes up (he was 5th at the Giro del Trentino in April). Orica-GreenEdge’s Johan Chaves is another outsider with a chance for success: he delivered a beautiful Tour of California stage win last month and he will look to make a late move up the GC leaderboard on the HC-rated climbs of the last two stages.

The Stagehunters

A number of elite stagehungers make the start from Bellinzona. Peter Sagan was brilliant in the 2013 edition, shocking everyone by nabbing a victory after surviving a particularly mountainous Stage 3 that even dropped most of the GC contenders, and he will try to defend his Points title in 2014. It won’t be easy. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb, supported by excellent-sprinter-in-his-own-right Luka Mezgec, is on fire in 2014 and has shown an ability to handle some of the tougher peloton-whittling climbs that Sagan also prefers.

Unfortunately for both of them, they’ll have to contend with Mark Cavendish and his elite OPQS leadout squad on the flatter days. Tom Boonen is here for Omega Pharma as well: they mean business in this race. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is another sprinter hoping to make an impression, and for once, he’ll actually have an entire team dedicated to his ambitions in a stage race. He took a stage last year and will be hungry for more. Sky’s Ben Swift gets another chance to shine this season, and he look for the harder days as opportunities to win from a reduced bunch. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo got off to a hot start in 2014 and could find himself returning to success here. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard is a brilliant young talent who could feature. MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and JJ Lobato, Astana’s Andrea Guardini, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, OGE’s Matt Goss, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s in-form Matti Breschel and Michael Morkov are other likely sprint protagonists.

For the very hilly days, look out for Garmin’s Tom Jelte-Slagter, Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert, and OGE’s Michael Albasini, who lit up the Tour de Romandie, to try to take on the GC riders for stage supremacy. Don’t be surprised to see classics powerhouses like Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke, OPQS’s Niki Terpstra and Stijn Vandenbergh, and Trek’s Stijn Devolder and, of course, Fabian Cancellara looking for long distance victories either. Cancellara will also headline (along with Bradley Wiggins and Tony Martin) an elite field of chrono riders for the race’s two stages against the clock. Movistar’s Alex Dowsett and AG2R’s Patrick Gretsch are specialists who will hope to contend with that trio, as well as a number of other aforementioned strong ITT riders, for prestigious wins against elite competition.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Rui Costa
Podium: Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger
Other Top Contenders: Thibaut Pinot, Mathias Frank, Ion Izagirre, Bradley Wiggins, Rohan Dennis, Domenico Pozzovivo, Laurens Ten Dam

I will not be doing daily stage previews here, but follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for stage picks and commentary. And check back soon for some very exciting things to come: Q&As with some of the sport’s up-and-coming young stars and plenty of Tour de France coverage are right around the corner.

-Dane Cash

Photos by F. Gopp and youkeys.

June 12, 2014
Paris-Nice 2014 and Tirreno-Adriatico 2014 Post-Race Impressions: Making Statements in March

Youth is Served at Paris-Nice

Paris-Nice was a race full of coming out parties. The youth movement was on full display on the undulating course, where every stage winner was aged 25 or younger. Young but already established sprinters Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb further padded their resumes at the top level, both picking up victories (and Degenkolb’s multiple strong showings on the way to the points jersey suggest a high level of form heading into Milano-Sanremo this weekend). Moreno Hofland made good on his excellent Kuurne Bruxelles-Kuurne by taking a stage victory over both of Degenkolb and Bouhanni. He’s just 22 and an exciting addition for a Belkin team that has been lacking in sprint power recently.

Once the road went up, AG2R’s Carlos Betancur put on a show, picking up two stage wins en route to the overall victory. Betancur, just 24, showed a powerful finishing kick in back to back stages. His explosiveness was already a well-known trait, but before this week, he had yet to pick up a WorldTour level victory. Now, he has three. With his performances in Paris-Nice, he has to be viewed as a top contender to nab a victory in the Ardennes.

Tom-Jelte Slagter won the Tour Down Under in 2013, but that is a race that has a history of producing results that aren’t repeated elsewhere on the pro calendar. Garmin’s new acquisition confirmed his talents with a very successful Paris-Nice, winning two stages, once with a late attack, and another in a reduced bunch sprint. His shot at the overall classification was ruined by an untimely late mechanical, but he showed he could contend for GC in this kind of race before that misfortune. Slagter’s brand of riding is the sort that wins late summer circuit races, so watch out for him in the GPs of Ouest Plouay, Montreal, and Quebec, where he seems set to improve on a number of top 10s already on his resume. Speaking of those late summer circuit races, last year’s runner up in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, outgunned more well-known sprinter/all-rounder JJ Rojas in the final stage of Paris-Nice on his way to a podium spot. Like most of the top riders in this race, the French champion will take on the Ardennes Classics in April.

For many of the aforementioned riders, Paris-Nice was a chance to make good on previous flashes of talent. Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, 6th overall at Paris-Nice, was a bit more of a surprise, having only found some success at lower levels so far. He was in the mix at nearly all the stage finishes that mattered in P-N. Stefan Denifl was mixing it up as well on his way to 7th overall for IAM Cycling.

Simon Spilak and Jakob Fuglsang (who stepped in for Astana with Nibali not at his best) both showed fine form, but this was always going to be a difficult race for them to break into podium positions: neither is well-known for his sprint, and with so many bonus seconds on the line, Top 10s are respectable results to start the season.

The number of riders derailed by sudden misfortune was staggering. Many big contenders hit untimely mechanicals or were put out of contention by crashes, or just plain got sick. Geraint Thomas looked set for a podium position before a nasty late crash. Still, he showed serious all-round talent throughout the race, climbing at a surprising level, and Sky’s trust in his ability will grow after several strong days at P-N.

Rui Costa gets the final mention. He’ll be frustrated beyond belief with 2nd places on two stages and in GC, but he’s obviously on sharp form and has plenty of big races coming up, including Pais Vasco, which looks full of stages to suit his talents.

Contador Dominant in Italy

Tirreno-Adriatico offers one takeaway that stands out above all others: Alberto Contador is back. The 31 year old Spaniard was untouchable on the two mountainous stages of T-A, and the sheer size of the gap he created on Stage 5, after already giving his best to win Stage 4, put him a level well above anyone else in the race. It’s early in the year, but he should carry this form into Catalunya, where he’ll face more of the peloton’s best. His teammate Roman Kreuziger landed yet another result suggesting that he should be considered alongside the very best GC riders in the peloton, fighting it out with the top climbers in the race behind Contador on Stages 4 and 5. There are few things that the winner of last year’s Amstel Gold Race can’t do, and he looks well-situated right now to bring those talents in full force to the spring stage races and Ardennes Classics.

Nairo Quintana was not able to hang with Contador at Tirreno-Adriatico, but he still looked quite good, finishing as runner-up. He has had comparatively few days of racing so far this season, so a 2nd place at T-A bodes well. The biggest takeaway for Quintana may have been a rapidly improving ability to take on the clock: his ITT, usually a weak part of his game, was faster than the ITTs of both Kreuziger and Contador.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo made one of the biggest entrances in T-A. The 25 year old Colombian came into T-A hot after a 2nd overall in San Luis and two stage wins, and he hung with all the best climbers in this race (minus Contador) on stages 4 and 5 to take 5th overall. He and teammate Robert Kiserlovski, 8th overall, will look to keep landing strong performances in the early season.

AG2R, having just won Paris-Nice, put together a great showing at Tirreno-Adriatico, with Jean-Christophe Peraud nabbing 4th overall and Domenico Pozzovivo 6th. It’s quite a turnaround for a squad that, not long ago, was generally towards the bottom of the WorldTour standings.

Michal Kwiatkowski’s week, characterized by an early lead and sudden fall back to Earth, was a big storyline in Tirreno-Adriatico. After giving his all and hanging with the best of the climbers in the race on the 4th stage, he simply couldn’t hang on the pace for the next day. He’ll be extremely disappointed with the missed chance at his first WorldTour victory, but he should take solace in the fact that OPQS was willing to put everything they had (including last year’s Giro runner-up Rigoberto Uran) behind his chances at winning the race. Pais Vasco looks to suit his talents, so watch out for him again there.

Halfway through the race, Richie Porte joined Chris Froome on Sky’s sicklist, an unfortunate turn of events that kept us from the opportuntity to see much of Porte’s form right now, though he looked in fine shape on the 4th stage. Robert Gesink and Chris Horner pulled out for health reasons as well. Cadel Evans also dropped out of the race, well off form. He has work to do if he wants to contend in the big races of the spring.

For various reasons, neither stage 2 nor stage 6 offered the expected showdown between the sport’s top three sprinters, Greipel, Kittel, and Cavendish. Cav won Stage 6 in commanding fashion, with a leadout so strong that his teammate Alessandro Petacchi took 2nd on the day, but Kittel and Greipel were not positioned to contest him there. Meanwhile, Matteo Pelucchi, with a beautiful kick and an uncanny sense of timing, jumped at just the right moment to take Stage 2 for IAM Cycling. Peter Sagan won the 3rd stage handily and took the Points Classification, lest there was any question about his form in the early season. He looks sharp for the upcoming classics.

Adriano Malori finally nabbed his big win. He took the final ITT handily, and he did it against the biggest three names in time trialing and a slew of other big chrono riders. He was part of Movistar’s very strong TTT in this race, a group that set up Nairo Quintana for his 2nd place. I think we’ll see Malori and his fellow Movistar time trialing heavyweights on display again soon, perhaps in the Giro.

What’s Next?

Three WorldTour stage races are already in the books in 2014, both of them full of takeaways for the early season. If Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico didn’t get you excited enough, the first Monument of the season, Milano-Sanremo, is up next. VeloHuman will, of course, be previewing the race, so check back soon, and follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis every day!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mike Slone.

March 18, 2014
Paris-Nice 2014 Preview

Cycling Season Heating Up

The Tours of Qatar and Oman, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad (which showed us a seemingly improved Sky Classics Squad) and Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne (which serves as yet another piece of evidence that Boonen is Back) kept February interesting. Welcome to March, and the 0 to 60 feeling of going from scattered reasonably popular races to TWO simultaneous WorldTour stage races followed by a Monument classic. It’s pretty much nonstop racing from here until October. I know I’m ready for the excitement.

If you missed the recent announcement, VeloHuman is now on Twitter! Say hello if you like, and follow @VeloHuman for more news and views. And when you’re finished reading this preview, remember to come back soon for the Tirreno-Adriatico edition!

All-rounder Roundup

With only a few truly grueling climbs and no time trials, Paris-Nice projects to be a race open to more than just your typical top-shelf Grand Tour GC riders. With an abundance of downhill finishes, this year’s race to the sun should be see close General Classification, and the fight for bonus seconds will be fierce.

The list of contenders in such an open race is long. It might have logically started with last year’s winner, Richie Porte. However, in a late breaking update, reigning champion Richie Porte will not be returning to Paris-Nice. Sky reports that he will replace Chris Froome at Tirreno-Adriatico instead. Geraint Thomas, looking sharp this year, will now step up to take Porte’s place as team leader. His skills make him an asset on the undulating profile. David Lopez, who finished 2013 with some of the best racing of his career, provides another great support rider and potential fill-in.

Unlike Porte, Vincenzo Nibali hasn’t shown any signs of changing his mind on Paris-Nice, and he leads a powerful Astana squad. He was hot and cold in the Tour of Oman, but he tends to perform when the lights come on, and his descending skills will serve him well here. He has the muscle to back him. Tanel Kangert, Jakob Fuglsang, and Lieuwe Westra (2nd overall and a stage winner in 2012) are all very dangerous.

Nibali is an obvious choices for any stage race, but the nature of this profile offers a distinct advantage to the climbers with fast finishes. World Champ Rui Costa has started off the year in good shape, winning the points jersey at his home Vola ao Algarve on the back of several fine stages that netted him 3rd overall. He has the legs to hang on over the tough climbs, and the kick to fight for precious seconds at the line. Przemyslaw Niemiec will be ample backup.

Speaking of climbers with kick, Carlos Betancur looks to be rounding into form after a Haut Var-matin victory. He’s just the sort of rider to take advantage of this route. Don’t rule out Ag2R teammate, the up-and-coming Romain Bardet, who will share his teammate’s appreciation for the lack of a time trial in this race. Rafal Majka, of Tinkoff-Saxo, is another young climber to watch.

The smaller hills and lack of chrono miles might not seem like his style, but Tejay van Garderen is hot after a Tour of Oman in which his climbing was second only to Chris Froome. 4th here last year, TvG has the chops and the current form to improve on his performance. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman is similarly more suited to longer climbs and TTs, but he’s also looking good in the early season and clearly in a position of team leadership.

IAM Cycling brings both of its biggest offseason acquisitions into this race. Sylvain Chavanel has had quite a history in this race, winning last year’s points classification, a stage, and 5th overall and adding those achievements to a long list of successes here in the past. This year’s route, without many serious mountaintop finishes and likely to be heavily reliant on bonus seconds, will play out in the French veteran’s favor. He’ll have Mathias Frank as a dangerous second. Simon Gerrans may seem like the choice for OGE, but early reports point to Michael Albasini being the leader. The OPQS lineup at Paris-Nice is awe-inspiring, but they seem to be more focused on stages than GC; Jan Bakelants or maybe Zdenek Stybar look like their best bet for the overall leaderboard. Lotto’s Tony Gallopin may shoot for a rare GC placing given the profile, but it’s unclear what his objectives are. Same for FDJ’s Arthur Vichot. Simon Spilak leads Katusha’s GC charge. Movistar sends the brothers Ion and Gorka Izagirre as well as John Gadret. Trek sends the Schleck brothers, and Frank actually looked pretty good in Oman before a puncture ruined his race. Garmin’s Tom Jelte Slagter is a keen climber and a fast finisher. Other outsiders include Tommy Voeckler, Maxime Monfort, Jerome Coppel, and Arnold Jeannesson, to name a few.

Stagehunters

Given the parcours, we can expect to see several sprint finishes in the 2014 Paris-Nice. None of Andre Greipel, Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, or Peter Sagan will be in attendance but the list of recognizable fast finishers making the trip is very long, and one worthy of a rapid-fire roll call, with parentheticals where details are useful. Here goes… Riders capable of taking one or more of these stage victories include headliners like Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb (three wins already this season), OGE’s Matt Goss and Michael Matthews, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, BMC’s Thor Hushovd and Greg van Avermaet, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard (keep an eye on the rising star), Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen (very strong last week), Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Belkin’s Lars Boom (for the tougher stages; he looks great this season) and Moreno Hofland (for the flatter ones; he also looks great this season), Tinkoff-Saxo’s Matti Breschel, Astana’s Francesco Gavazzi, and Garmin’s Tyler Farrar and Steele Von Hoff. OPQS gets their own bit here, as they’ll be coming into Paris-Nice with guns-blazing. Tom Boonen is back with a vengeance, sprinting at a high level and bringing his usual endurance to boot. Meersman and Stybar are both excellent options on the bumpier stages. Terpstra could go for a long one. Nikolas Maes may not have the name recognition of his teammates, but he’s a viable option in the flat finishes.

Other pure sprinter types who can contend: Giant-Shimano’s Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg, Cofidis’s Adrien Petit, and a hot Alexey Tsatevich of Katusha. In addition to the faster overall contenders, watch out for the likes of Tony Gallopin, Simon Gerrans (looking very strong), Samuel Dumoulin, Enrico Gasparotto, and Arthur Vichot, in any number of stages in which their climbing skills might keep them involved with the GC riders.

VeloHuman Predictions

GC Winner: Rui Costa

GC Podium: Vincenzo Nibali, Carlos Betancur

GC Top 10: Romain Bardet, Wilco Kelderman, Sylvain Chavanel, Tejay van Garderen, Simon Spilak, Geraint Thomas, Rafal Majka

Remember to check back in soon for the VH pre-race take on Tirreno-Adriatico!

-Dane Cash

March 7, 2014
Post-year Impressions: Charting the Arrivals and Step-ups of 2013

2013 is in the books! Beñat Intxausti won the GC of the final WT race of the year, the Tour of Beijing, by taking a victory on the decisive fourth stage. Joaquim Rodriguez finishes the year as repeat WorldTour champion on the back of his GrandTour successes, a Monument victory, and a truckload of high placings in other big races.

As this site is in the business of prospective analysis, my look back at 2013 will mostly be a look forward. I hope to shed some light on what we learned about the top riders in the sport this year, and which riders to watch in the future. If you’re reading VeloHuman, you don’t need me to tell you that Chris Froome is a rider to keep an eye on next year, or that Vincenzo Nibali is shaping up to be his main rival, or that Fabian Cancellara is still a talented racer. Instead, it’d be more productive for me to focus on the riders who made vast improvements in 2013, who we might say “arrived” this year, and who have set themselves up to do big things next year, so I’ll do just that, and name some names that I think made big strides this season and look to continue to do soon in the near future.

A rather obvious duo headlines my list of the most emphatic arrivals this year. While everyone was busy wondering which Spaniard would present the best case against Chris Froome in the Tour de France, a 23-year old Colombian leg-muscled his way onto the scene, building off of early season success in the Tour of the Basque Country with a fierce display of climbing prowess on some of the Tour’s most difficult stages: Ventoux, Alpe d’Huez, Mont Semnoz. Though the early lead Froome had built up was insurmountable, Quintana’s later stage performances, matching the Sky captain’s every move uphill on his way to 2nd overall, a stage win, the polka-dot KoM jersey and the young rider’s white, he saved Movistar’s Tour after their team leader Alejandro Valverde hit some raw luck with a mechanical that dropped him out of contention. No one will overlook him next year, especially with such a climbing-oriented 2014 edition of the Tour de France on the docket. Alternatively, he could set his sights on the Giro. Quintana’s time trialing might need a bit of work, but he showed this year that he can outclimb most of the sport’s biggest names, and you have to think he can only get better, still a few years shy of his prime.

Countryman Carlos Betancur blazed onto the scene with similar brightness. Top 10s at La Fleche Wallonne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the Tour of the Basque Country were followed by a highly successful Giro d’Italia, in which the young Colombian took 5th overall and the young rider classification. Like Quintana, he is sorely lacking in the time trialing department—his remarkable Giro was made all the more remarkable by his appearance in the top 10 after losing almost five minutes to the eventual winner of the race in the first ITT. Like Quintana, he’ll gun for future Grand Tour success in chrono-light parcours while he improves in that discipline, and while he may be a shade shy of Quintana’s level on the longer Tour style climbs, he’s more explosive than the Movistar wunderkind, and will surely be a fixture in the climber’s classics to come.

Zdenek Stybar is my other most emphatic arrival of the year. His situation is unique, in that cycling fans have heard Stybar’s name for years, but in a different discipline. Making the switch from cyclocross appears to have worked out for the Czech rider: even after a collision with a fan robbed him of a potential podium position in Paris-Roubaix, he still finished 6th in that race, and followed it up with a dominant Eneco Tour and a beautiful stage win in the Vuelta where he outsprinted none other than former World Champ Philippe Gilbert. His versatility was dazzling, and he will go into the 2014 classics season as a hot favorite across all kinds of terrain—and isn’t that the perfect expectation for a former cyclocross world champion?

Many other riders who were already well within the sights of cycling fans took leaps onto the highest level. Outside of Quintana, the most emphatic arrivals among riders who finished the year in the WorldTour top 10 were made by Dan Martin and Rui Costa. Dan Martin was already a name on the minds of observers at the start of the season, with a Grand Tour stage win in 2011 and the overall victory at the Tour de Pologne in 2010, but he took a Monument Classic, a Tour de France stage win, and the overall at the Volta a Catalunya this year, successes that vaulted him to 6th place in the final WorldTour rankings of 2013 (putting him ahead of Spartacus himself). And Rui Costa came into the year as a well-known talent as a winner of a Canadian GP, the Tour de Suisse, and a stage in the Tour de France, but his two Tour de France wins and World Championship (to go with another dominant Tour de Suisse) put him at cycling’s center stage. He goes to Lampre in 2014 as the team leader, a Tour de France GC hopeful. Another star of the Tour, Bauke Mollema was already a well-known name for many fans of the sport, having finished 4th overall and 1st in the points classification in the 2011 Vuelta, but he came into his own this year with strong performances all over the calendar, in the Ardennes Classics, the Tour de Suisse, Tour de France, Vuelta (where he won a stage to redeem a disappointing GC effort), and Clasica de San Sebastian. His emergence comes at just the right time, with teammate Robert Gesink having another disappointing year in terms of Grand Tour GC contention; however, Gesink showed strong late season form in shorter races, winning the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec and placing highly in other events, suggesting a possible change of focus to shorter races going forward. And the timing was ripe for Marcel Kittel to make an explosive entrance: after injury in 2012 robbed him of an opportunity to make his mark on that year’s tour, his 2013 outing, which earned him a quartet of stage wins, suddenly sees him in the best-of-the-best conversation with Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel.

In case you missed it, his teammate Luka Mezgec was one of a number of young up-and-coming sprinters who showed promise this year. Mezgec spent the whole year nipping at the heels of other sprinters, racking up countless top 5s without a win until he finally picked up his first of the year and his first WT level win ever on the very last day of the WorldTour calendar in Beijing. Nacer Bouhanni took a pair of wins in that race to go with the points jersey, as well as a number of other wins this year, a boon for FDJ. His squadmate Arnaud Demare took stages in the Eneco Tour and the Tour de Suisse, an armful of honors in the Four Days of Dunkirk he won, and high placings in a number of one-day races. Yet another French, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, a former track cycling star, transitioned quite nicely onto the road, collecting honors left and right on the Continental circuit. The 21 year old will be a major force on the fast finishes in 2014 now that Europcar looks to be joining the top division of teams. Michael Matthews came into the Vuelta flying high after Continental Tour success and proceeded to establish himself as the best sprinter in that race, with a special talent for nabbing victories after tough days in the saddle. His skills nabbed him a pair of stage wins, including the victory on the final day’s sprinter battle royale.

Speaking of quick hardmen, Alexander Kristoff gets a paragraph of his own: he built on a strong 2012 (in which he took an Olympic Bronze Medal) with top 10s in three Monument Classics and his first WorldTour level win in the Tour de Suisse (besting Peter Sagan on a tough day that ended in a sprint). He has established himself as a serious contender for hardman sprinter’s races going forward.

The Vuelta gave us an opportunity to see a number of coming out parties for GC contenders. Leopold Konig landed in the top 10 and picked up a stage win at the head of a Pro Continental team, quite a feat for the 25 year old. He’ll stay with NetApp for another year and will hope his performance garners further invitations to big events, where he’s sure to continue his success. Meanwhile, Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche achieved some long awaited success with a top 5 finish and a stage win. His constant presence at the front of the pack on mountaintop finishes in Spain suggests that he may finally have taken the step up to the next level, a good sign for 2014.

Poland showed off a pair of riders with top level ability this year. Nico Roche’s teammate Rafal Majka didn’t win any races, but he was 7th overall in the Giro d’Italia and 2nd to Betancur for the young rider classification in that race, and he followed up with a 4th overall in his home tour to go along with his 1st place in the points classification of that race. The honors kept piling up as the year went on, when he narrowly missed out on a victory in Milano-Torino against another rising star (pictured above) and then stood on the podium in the final Monument of the year in Lombardy. By the same token (eerily), Michal Kwiatkowski may still have yet to win a pro race, but he burst onto the scene this year with a boatload of strong performances. 4th in both Tirreno-Adriatico and Amstel Gold, 5th in La Fleche Wallonne, and a heartbreaking 11th in the Tour de France after fellow up-and-comer Andrew Talansky grabbed the final top 10 spot on the last day of climbing, Majka looks to be a likely candidate for continued climbing success, and Kwiatkowski showed an incredible array of skills and looks poised to stake a claim to best all-rounder in the very near future.

A significant number of teams saw young climbing talents rising up the ladder this year. Many are Italian. 2011 Giro stage winner Diego Ulissi took a big step forward with successes on both ends of the season, nabbing a top 10 at Paris-Nice early and then a stage win in the Tour de Pologne and a string of semi-classic victories in Italy. So far, most of his quantifiable successes have been on smaller stages, but he performed at a high level in some big races this year (he was lurking in a number of stages in the Vuelta even if he didn’t come away with a win), inspiring a lot of confidence going forward. He’ll be part of an explosive one-two combination with Rui Costa at Lampre in 2014. Astana teammates Fabio Aru and Simone Ponzi look like prime candidates for success next year. Another Italian, Moreno Moser, had several standout performances this year for Cannondale; he disappeared at times when he was expected to bring his success to a bigger stage, but he showed in Strade Bianche and other races in 2013 that he certainly has the ability to turn promise into achievement in 2014.

Spaniard Jon Izagirre won’t be sweating the dissolution of his former team Euskaltel too much now that he has a new squad in Movistar, and it’s easy to see why they signed him. He nabbed the runner-up honors in the Tour de Pologne with a surprising time trial performance on the last day, and notched top 10s in the Tour Down Under and the one day Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal as well.

24 year old Arthur Vichot looks to be one of yet another up-and-comer for FDJ with strong climbing legs and a fast finish, abilities that netted him the French national championship, the runner-up honors in Quebec, and the victory in the Tour du Haut Var-matin. AG2R’s Romain Bardet, winner of the Tour de l’Ain and a high finisher in the Tour of Beijing, appears to have a bright future, and he joins teammate Carlos Betancur as part of a crop of young uphill chargers on that team.

Wilco Kelderman, a natural time trial talent, came into his own as a climber with a number of high-level successes in 2013. He picked up top 10s in Romandie, the Eneco Tour, and the Tour Down Under, and dominated the Tour of Denmark, where he won a stage, the points classification, and the overall. He’s another exciting up-and-comer for Belkin.

Argos-Shimano teammates Warren Barguil and Tom Dumoulin got themselves onto the map this year, the former nabbing a pair of breakaway victories in the Vuelta, and the latter claiming runner up honors with an impressive Eneco Tour performance. Alongside Marcel Kittel, Luka Mezgec, and John Degenkolb, the duo makes a potent quartet of Argos riders 25 and under.

Riccardo Zoidl nabbed the GC win at the Tour of Austria, and climbed at a high level in a number of other events. Darwin Atapuma moves up from Team Colombia to BMC after nabbing his first WorldTour win this year in Poland—that team desperately needs new blood, and Atapuma will be happy to oblige.

To match all these young climbers coming into their own, a few time trialists are on the rise: Adriano Malori looks to be a threat in that department, putting in a top 10 at the World Championship ITT and taking second place behind Tony Martin on a few time trial stages in WorldTour races to go along with his ITT victory and the overall in Bayern-Rundfahrt. Rohan Dennis out-time-trialed Chris Froome in the Criterium du Dauphine on his way to a top 10 there and then showed his versatility when he won a stage and the overall in the Tour of Alberta. The 23 year old has established himself as a promising member of Garmin’s youth movement.

This list is by no means exhaustive, and obviously much depends on how you define breakout success, but hopefully I’ve rattled off the names of many of tomorrow’s biggest names. And thanks to the Tour Down Under and its January start date, we won’t have too long to wait for the opening of the 2014 calendar–in just 11 weeks, the pro peloton heads to Nuriootpa, Australia to kick off the new season!

-Dane Cash

Photos by Flowizm, brassynn, and Georges Ménager.

November 16, 2013
Tour of Beijing 2013 Preview

The Road Ahead

The last WorldTour race of the year! Despite all the controversy around this race, and all the derision that is heaped on it by observers due to the poor organization and abysmal air quality that riders must suffer through in the name of cycling’s globalization (and in the service of a fat paycheck for the UCI), it’s still a major event with major contenders seeking last minute WT points. For all the hate it gets, it’s still a race that sees some of the sport’s biggest names fighting for victory, and the 2013 edition is no different. Current and former World Champions of Road Race and Time Trial, a Monument winner, and the Vuelta’s best sprinter are all making the journey to China.

The 2013 Tour of Beijing will consist of five stages, none of them time trials. The first is a flat day sure to end in a sprint. The second throws in a few hills, but with a long flat run in to the finish, it’s another likely day for the sprinters. Stage 3 involves a hefty dose of climbing miles sure to put some fatigue in the legs before a summit finish on Stage 4 atop Miaofeng Mountain (site of the lovely sunset scene depicted above) sure to decide the Tour of Beijing. The final stage is a flat circuit race, another day for the sprinters.

All-rounder Roundup

Tony Martin is the two time winner of the Tour of Beijing, and as usual he heads a strong cast of supporters, but this year’s trip to China is different from the previous two: not only is there no time trial, but there is also a steep summit finish, which has not been the case in Tours of Beijing past. Stage 4 almost guarantees the winner will be a climber; the only way Tony Martin wins this race is with a long distance breakaway. Obviously he’s the rider to make this happen if it does, but that kind of gap when he has such a target on his back will be a tall order.

There are plenty of star climbers to take up the challenge. The best combination of form and talent at this point seems to be Garmin-Sharp’s Dan Martin, 4th in this race and King of the Mountains last year. In 2013, that mountain prowess means so much more. Martin was one of the top five riders in Lombardy last week, and a time trial-less one-week stage race with only one or at most two days to make an all out attack is just his style. Back in March, he won the Volta a Catalunya with a powerful uphill move on the most mountainous stage of the race, he’ll look to do the same here.

World Champion Rui Costa leads a strong Movistar squad. He’s an elite climber and, like Dan Martin, has elite explosiveness well-suited for stage races decided on one or two key days. Obviously, the world champion is on form right now, as he always seems to be at the end of the year. The two-time Tour de Suisse winner was 9th here last year. Capable climbers Benat Intxausti and Giovanni Visconti provide ample alternatives for the Spanish team.

A third rider matching form to ability is Belkin’s Robert Gesink, who has some good results these past few weeks, winning in Quebec and coming in 10th in Lombardy. Not long ago he was touted as a Grand Tour contender, with climbing talent that landed him in the top 5 of a Tour de France. Like Martin, he’s shown a great kick in one-day races this year, and also like Martin, he’ll appreciate the lack of a time trial stage. Wilco Kelderman is a great backup option.

Richie Porte heads Team Sky’s challenge. The Paris-Nice winner showed climbing ability in the Tour de France on par with the best riders in the world. The only question now is form: he hasn’t made many waves since rolling into Paris with Chris Froome. Young American Joe Dombrowski and Spaniard David Lopez are other very strong climbers on the squad.

Another big name from earlier this season whose form is a question is Giro Young Rider Classification winner Carlos Betancur. The climbing specialist was purely a domestique for Domenico Pozzovivo in the Vuelta, but he looked to be improving in the ensuing one-day races in Italy. Obviously, if Betancur recovers that form, he’ll be hard to beat. If not, AG2R La Mondiale sends a lot of firepower: Tour de l’Ain winner Romain Bardet, Tour de France stage winner and Tour de Pologne stage winner/GC podium finisher Christophe Riblon, and Jean-Christophe Peraud mean business. AG2R could be one of the most active teams on stages 3 and 4; they’re sure to launch repeated volleys in the classics-style climbs in the former and the long uphill grind of the latter, hoping one sticks.

Cannondale’s Ivan Basso has looked strong since his return, but he doesn’t have much in terms of results to show for his decent form; he abandoned the Vuelta and came in just outside the top 10 at Il Lombardia. He’ll hope to outlast his rivals on the long climb to the summit on Stage 4. Fellow aging star Michael Rogers will rue the lack of a time trial, but he’s been quite good this year in one week races in which he’s actually had a chance to ride for his own ambitions, finishing 6th in the Dauphine and 2nd in the Tour of California.

Orica-GreenEdge’s Cameron Meyer, Astana’s Janez Brajkovic, BMC’s Mathias Frank, and Vacansoleil’s Thomas De Gendt are other names to keep in mind. Zdenek Stybar is another option for Omega Pharma – Quick Step; he could go for a long strike on the hilly stage 3 in an attempt to mitigate his losses in the probably-too-mountainous-for-him stage 4.

This late in the year, with form fading after a long season and several riders hunting WT points at the close of 2013, the fight for the Tour of Beijing GC could see any number of enterprising contenders as the last man standing.

Stagehunters

Sagan, Cavendish, Kittel and Greipel might be sitting this one out, but there is a lot of young talent in China to take advantage of the three likely sprinter’s days. Michael Matthews, double stage winner in the Vuelta, headlines the list. OGE made it public that Matthews was their man for the harder sprint days in that race, with Leigh Howard as the man for the pan flat days, but when Matthews took a strong win early, his team gave him their full support on every bunch gallop opportunity, and he rewarded their faith with a victory in the final stage in Madrid. He’ll face fierce competition from FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, who won a Paris-Nice stage in March and found himself in the mix in a number of Giro stages, Cannondale’s Elia Viviani (winner of two stages in past Tour of Beijing), and of course, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, who started the year off slowly, but has picked things up in the post-Tour months. Luka Mezgec of Argos-Shimano was constantly nipping at the heels of Peter Sagan in their trip to North America recently, and he’ll have the support of a well marshalled lead out; Tom Veelers is a good alternate option. Alessandro Petacchi will be the man in the sprints for OPQS. Even at 39 he’s still looked imposing, runner-up in a Tour of Britain stage and always near the front in the Eneco Tour’s flat days. Constant high finisher but rare winner Robert Ferrari leads Lampre’s charge, and without the likes of Cavendish, perhaps he can nib a win here. I have already named Steele von Hoff an under the radar challenger this year so I suppose that precludes him from being considered under the radar again here, but if he wasn’t on your radar yet, he should be. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus was a hot sleeper pick for the sprints in the Vuelta and he achieved nothing there; maybe he’ll get back on track here before he dons the Belkin green next year. Vacansoleil also has Kenny Van Hummel. On sprinting duty for a very strong AG2R team is Yauheni Hutarovich.Katusha has a trio of young sprinters in Alexey Tsatevich, Marco Haller (who won a stage here last year) and, going way under the rader, Anton Vorobyev.

Regardless of whether he has a shot at GC, Zdenek Stybar is a great pick to nab a stage win on one of the five days. The Czech hardman, unfazed by the mud of the cyclocross circuit, the dust and cobbles of Paris-Roubaix, or the lumps of the Ardennes, is as good a bet as any to handle the Beijing smog and come out on top at a stage finish line with his versatile skillset. Stage 3 looks like a great place to strike, but he’s shown in a matter of weeks that he’s capable of winning on all kinds of profiles. His teammate Nikolas Maes is another sneaky stagehunter. The Astana trio of Francesco Gavazzi, Borut Bozic, and Simone Ponzi, Saxo-Tinkoff’s Matti Breschel, Cannondale’s Daniele Ratto and Damiano Caruso, Radioshack’s Jan Bakelants, and AG2R’s Rinaldo Nocentini are all versatile fast finishers. Gavazzi and Nocentini were 2nd and 6th, respectively, in last year’s GC. I think that’s unrealistic to repeat with this year’s parcours, but stage victories could be on their minds. The Tour of Beijing will be the farewell race of longtime star of combativity, Juan Antonio Flecha, and you can guarantee he’ll be going 100% in every breakaway possible in his last pro event. Stephen Cummings, 4th here in the past, is another strong breakaway candidate. And of course, Tony Martin will certainly be trying to get away on his own, even if he doesn’t think he has a shot at GC.

With so many stages sure to end in a bunch finish with the climbers taking it easy in the back of the peloton, it will be the stagehunters at the fore for the majority of the Tour of Beijing.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Daniel Martin

Podium

Rui Costa, Robert Gesink

Top 10

Carlos Betancur, Michael Rogers, Richie Porte, Ivan Basso, Mathias Frank, Christophe Riblon, Thomas De Gendt

-Dane Cash

Photo by Tim Wang.

October 10, 2013
Il Lombardia 2013 Preview

High Stakes Hill-climbing in Italy, Round Two

For all those big name riders who missed out on last week’s climber’s classic in Italy, this Sunday provides a perfect opportunity for redemption: another climber’s classic in Italy, 2013’s final Monument: Il Lombardia. It’s the last one-day WorldTour race of the year, the final Monument, and it’s well-timed, a race for the uphill specialists coming after a rare Championship race geared towards the same crowd, meaning that the contenders will be at the top of their game for a race that has, in the past, often featured riders in fading form.

Last weekend’s grueling Worlds proved to be a competition for the GC types in the end, but up until the last lap around Florence, it wasn’t so clear whether they’d be able to drop Spartacus and his type; Il Lombardia, though, has steeper, more selective slopes that will require even more climbing prowess, putting the spotlight squarely on the lighter men in the peloton.

The Valico di Valcava kicks things off before the halfway mark, 11 kilometers at an 8% gradient, a climb worthy of a high mountain stage in a Grand Tour. After another bump in the road, the Colle Brianza, the peloton takes on the very challenging wall of Sormano, touching gradients in the mid 20% range, with it’s summit a little more than 80 kilometers before the finish. It’s followed by a steep downhill and some flat land to give those dropped a chance to catch up, but regardless it will take a lot out of the legs of the heavier riders. The winding road up to the Madonna del Ghisallo is an irregular ascent that fluctuates between 10% sections and short periods of respite. Next up is a challenging descent, and then another 20 kilometers of flattish roads before the Villa Vergano climb, which, since being added to the parcours in 2011, has been the battleground on which this Monument has been decided. After so many intense lumps along the way to the finish in Lecco, the final test of 3.4 km at 8%, with a steeper run towards the top, is sure to launch the winner, or the small winning group, to victory.

Purito won in Lombardy last year, finally taking a well-earned first Monument title, and he’s the leading favorite again this year. He was agonizingly close to the rainbow jersey last Sunday when his attempt to solo away on the final slopes was shot down by a hard-charging Rui Costa. But if he’s maintained that top-level form into this Sunday, Rodriguez will have another excellent opportunity here, with a final launching pad perfectly designed for his punchy style that could create more of a gap than in Florence and less of a chance for chasers to catch back up. While said climb is almost 10 kilometers from the finish and followed by a downhill and then a flat (though technical) run-in towards the line, but the difficulty level of the slopes will inspire furious attacks that Purito can hope will prevent another sprint finish; not that he’s bad in a drag to the line, but certainly he’d prefer to avoid another last second disappointment to someone with a better kick. His teammate Daniel Moreno will be an excellent alternative option, especially if more than one rider is at the front of the race in the last kilometer. Moreno’s explosive style has netted him some big wins so far this year; he’s shown that not only can he hang on when things get hectic in a climber’s finish, but that he can be the one forcing the selection.

Last weekend’s climactic finish makes previewing this weekend’s race easier: every other member of the star-studded cast that made it into Rodriguez’s final move last Sunday should be counted as a favorite again this weekend, including, of course, the two riders who are teammates again in a race of trade teams: Alejandro Valverde and Rui Costa. Despite all of his incredible talent, Costa might have been riding this race in support of Valverde had he not taken the rainbow jersey in Florence; Movistar has undervalued Costa in the past. However, now that he is the World Champion, Costa will probably be given freedom to make his own moves, and who can doubt his ability and his expertise after last week. Still, Valverde is Valverde, and if nobody is able to break free, he’ll be the one to beat in a sprint finish. Movistar has even more cards to play than these two: Nairo Quintana may not have much of a one-day resume, but if there is any one top tier classic for the young rider to make his mark, it’s Lombardy. Giovanni Visconti and Benat Intxausti have both won similarly challenging races in Italy this year (during the Giro).

Home favorite Vincenzo Nibali managed to finish in 4th place last weekend despite having to dig deep to get back into the peloton after a late crash; who knows what might have been had he had that extra energy to use in the finish. The Giro winner will love the chance to show his strength in another challenging parcours, and he’s sure to make a move to break with the bunch when the road goes up late, as he doesn’t have much of a sprint to contend with the likes of Valverde, Moreno, or Costa. This lack of top-tier drag-racing talent has kept Nibali from having much success in single day races so far, but he’s on the form of his life, one of the top 5 riders in the sport this year, and it’s almost guaranteed that he’ll attempt to use his elite soloing ability to take the win. He may have a tough challenge climbing to the top of the podium, but of all the contenders, I see Nibali as by far the most likely to finish in the top 10.

Sky’s Rigoberto Uran took a nasty fall on a wet descent in the waning minutes of the championship, taking himself out of the running for the final push. It’s a shame, because the explosive rider might have made a splash. He was on the podium in Lombardy last year (in fact, he was on the podium all the way back in 2008 as well), and he has the tools to improve on those performances here in 2013. Surprisingly, Uran has yet to take that big marquee classic victory (last year’s Gran Piemonte was a great first step at the 1.HC level, but a Monument win would be on a whole new plane). With the Sergio Henao for company (and as a good alternative, as Henao has had some fine results in one-day races), Uran will be a fierce challenger for the victory Sunday.

Michele Scarponi lasted for a few moments in the decisive move during the World Championship race, and he’s been close to victory on numerous occasions in the past few weeks, coming up short again and again in the Vuelta. He’s another good home option riding for an Italian squad, but I think the real favorite on Lampre-Merida is young Diego Ulissi, who just took the midweek Milano-Torino. He has a great sprint (as he showed in the opening stage of this year’s Tour de Pologne, where he came out on top in a reduced bunch finish in a group fifteen strong after a late climb) and clearly the form to mix it up on the ascents. He’s not a great descender, and he’ll hope against hope for good weather, but if the conditions aren’t too nasty, Diego Ulissi could pose a serious challenge against the collection of better known, more established riders in the race.

Dan Martin was one of a number of big names last week to suffer an unfortunate crash in the rain, but the fall did not seem to have any lasting effects. 2nd in the 2011 edition of this event, where he outkicked a group that included Purito and Ivan Basso for the title of runner-up, Martin has had quite a string of misfortune after his amazing early season success. If he can manage to stay on the bike the whole race, he’s primed for success here, with a parcours perfectly suited to his skillset. He denied Rodriguez a second Monument when he passed him en route to the win at Liege-Bastogne-Liege this spring, and he’d love the chance to collect a second one himself here at Il Lombardia in similar late-breaking fashion.

Saxo-Tinkoff’s Alberto Contador was one of the many DNFs last weekend as well, but he was fifth in Milano-Torino, suggesting he has found some late season form after disappointing time and again in 2013. He’ll have allies trying to outrun the better sprinters on the final climbs, and he also has a strong team behind him. Rafal Majka was runner-up at Milano-Torino. He’s actually never won a pro race, but he’s come close a number of times and he’s got a great finish to match his climbing legs. Nicolas Roche finally came good after years of being touted with a great showing in the Vuelta, and he’s another option for the team.

AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo nabbed fourth in Milano-Torino. He’s had a very strong 2013 and he’s kept a high level of climbing form all year. Carlos Betancur looked better last weekend than he did during his disappointing Vuelta, and should he find the form that went missing sometime this summer, he could surprise for his team this Sunday.

With Bauke Mollema out, Robert Gesink leads Belkin into the year’s last Monument. He showed an impressive sprint in Canada and he’s obviously a great climber. He heads up a strong team: Lars Petter Nordhaug had a good World Championship race, Laurens Ten Dam is another great climber, and Tom-Jelte Slagter is a versatile rider with a fast finish.

Philippe Gilbert has won this race twice, as recently as 2009 and 2010, but that seems like another lifetime for the Belgian star. He’s still got a great kick but he isn’t climbing as well as he used to. It’s not entirely out of the question that Gilbert finds those legs on Sunday, and if he manages to keep up with the attacks from the climbing heavyweights, obviously he’s a big favorite to outrun them at the line. BMC teammate Greg Van Avermaet is similarly positioned, a great all-rounder for whom Lombardy’s climbs might be just a bit too much. Strong climbers Ivan Santaromita, Mathias Frank, and Tejay van Garderen may be better options for BMC than the former champ Gilbert.

Perhaps more likely is that Peter Sagan keeps up with Nibali et al. He just missed out in Florence, leading his group across the line for 6th place behind the climbing stars, and while Lombardy has more challenging climbs, it’s also shorter than the World Championship race. The young Slovakian has sometimes struggled in the most grueling of endurance races, and maybe with fewer kilometers to tackle, he’ll be more up for the ascents. His handling ability will be useful on the windy roads and he’ll surely be the man to beat in a sprint if he can hang on, though I don’t think the odds are in his favor. Teammate and two-time Giro d’Italia winner Ivan Basso finished 4th in Lombardy in 2011 and will be a better bet to stick with his fellow GC types. He showed good form in the Vuelta before abandoning on a day of nasty weather in the mountains, and he has a surprising finishing kick.

Omega Pharma – Quick Step has a stable of all-rounder talent who will also be pushed to the limit, but who are capable of surprising. Michal Kwiatkowski has a very fast finish and when he’s on form, he can climb at a very high level, and Sylvain Chavanel, in his last WorldTour classic with OPQS, is a great bet to try for a long distance strike.

A few other outsiders: Tommy Voeckler, Franco Pellizotti, Damiano Cunego, Chris Anker Sorensen, Alexandr Kolobnev, Rinaldo Nocentini, Warren Barguil, Thibaut Pinot, the Radioshack duo of Jan Bakelants and Andy Schleck, and Orica-GreenEdge’s trio of Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, and Simon Clarke, who was impressive in the World Championship road race. For anyone with ambitions of winning, it will be hard to overcome the odds in one of the biggest events on the calendar against the top talents in the world all on form from their championship runs, but the late season classics have been full of surprises and excitement this year.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Joaquim Rodriguez

Podium

Rigoberto Uran, Vincenzo Nibali

Top 10

Alejandro Valverde, Rui Costa, Daniel Moreno, Daniel Martin, Diego Ulissi, Robert Gesink, Michele Scarponi

-Dane Cash

Photos by Jered Gruber and Laurent Brun.

October 5, 2013