Tag: Sep Vanmarcke

Paris-Roubaix 2016 Preview

Paris-Roubaix kicks off Sunday in Compiègne (which is actually about an hour from Paris by car), and this year’s edition of the race should be as interesting as ever.

The Route

257.5 kilometers from start to finish, the Paris-Roubaix parcours is pancake-flat, with 27 officially rated cobbled sectors. Even the less difficult sections are perilous, but things really heat up after 160km at the Arenberg Trench, the first “five-star” sector in terms of difficulty, the tenth official section on the day. It’s a narrow, 2.4km stretch of “road” that runs through a dense forest. The surface is brutal, and even a specialist can have it all go wrong bouncing around on the cobbles. Unfortunately, things don’t get a whole lot easier after that.

After eight more difficult stretches of cobbles comes Mons-en-Pévele, 3km long, another particularly nastry stretch. The riders will have less than 50km to go when they arrive, so you can expect attacks to fly from the more aggressive types.

If the race isn’t broken up by then, it almost certainly will be by the time the riders are through with the Carrefour de l’Arbre, the last major obstacle on the profile before an easier final three cobbled sectors. The Carrefour is a make or break 2.1km section that is tough enough to blow any group to pieces.

15 kilometers later those who have survived the trek over some of the most uncomfortable roads in cycling will arrive at the Roubaix velodrome to finish the race. It’s often the sight of a small sprint, though solo wins and larger sprint are possibilities as well.

The Contenders

2015 champ John Degenkolb won’t be defending his title due to injuries suffered in a training crash, but the startlist is still full of classics firepower.

Fabian Cancellara is in the hunt for his fourth career Paris-Roubaix victory Sunday in his last ever appearance at the race. The form he showed last weekend at the Tour of Flanders makes that seem like a real possibility. Roubaix suits his huge engine perfectly. With a solid team around him, Cancellara can mark early attacks right up to the point where he launches his own. His biggest challenge will be shedding the many contenders who might be potentially speedier in a sprint finish.

Peter Sagan fits the bill. He’s got the “when will you win a Monument?” monkey off his back now, and he’s on blazing form. However, Paris-Roubaix doesn’t suit him nearly as well as De Ronde. One of the things that sets him apart as a rider is his ability to leave other one-day specialists behind on short climbs and then seal the deal with his masterful descending abilities. He won’t be able to put those skills on display here. It won’t be as easy for the punchy world champ to leave his rivals behind on this profile.

Sep Vanmarcke, on the other hand, will appreciate the flatter parcours, at least when it comes to facing off against Sagan. He has looked very strong the past few races and has improved dramatically as a sprinter since he took runner-up honors in Roubaix in 2013. That makes him dangerous.

Alexander Kristoff can go toe to toe against anyone on this startlist in a sprint. He looked sharp in Flanders, and although he’s never had as much success in Paris-Roubaix, he can’t be counted out. He’ll need everything to go his way in a race notorious for doling out punctures, mechanicals, and even fan collisions at the worst possible moments, but if he can hang with the lead group he’s a big threat in the velodrome.

Etixx-QuickStep’s Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Tom Boonen form a powerful lead trio that can boast several Roubaix wins and podium performances. Four-time winner Boonen has looked decent so far this year but Stybar and Terpstra are probably better bets. I particularly like Terpstra’s chances — I wouldn’t be surprised to see a small group enter the last 10km together and he has already shown that he has the power to make his rivals pay if they hesitate even for a moment when he launches a late solo move.

Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Jurgen Roelandts, Tiesj Benoot, Luke Rowe, Ian Stannard, Jens Keukeleire, and Daniel Oss are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Fabian Cancellara
Podium: Sep Vanmarcke, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Alexander Kristoff, Tom Boonen, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Lars Boom, Luke Rowe

Photo by Dane Cash.

April 10, 2016
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2016 Preview

The tuneup races are in the bag. Belgium’s biggest day of cycling is here. Sunday’s Tour of Flanders is the 100th edition of the monumental classic, and with several big names gunning for an elusive first monument win against two riders hoping to pick up a fourth career Ronde victory, it should be an entertaining show.

The Route

255 kilometers from start to finish, the Ronde van Vlaanderen is defined by its many climbs, most of which are cobbled. Officially, there are 18 climbs on the route. Many of them are crested more than once. The peloton will take on the challenging Oude Kwaremont/Paterberg double twice on the day, with the second visit to the difficult pairing marking the final two climbs on the profile. After the riders summit the Paterberg for the second time, it’s less than 20 kilometers of flat to the finish.

The Contenders

Hunting for a record-breaking fourth Flanders win in his final year as a pro, Fabian Cancellara is certainly among the favorites. There are several fast finishers among the top contenders, so Cancellara’s chances probably come down to his ability to power away on the late climbs using his incredible engine. Don’t be surprised if he pulls it off, even at age 35.

Defending champion Alexander Kristoff has his work cut out for him this year. He may have won some races in the desert at the start of his 2016 campaign, but he just hasn’t quite looked as strong yet this year as he did in 2015. He won the race last year from a surprising two-man move, but he has not shown much of that escape ability since. It’s hard to say whether he can pull off that brilliant feat again, and given the tough profile, a big sprint (which would indeed favor him) seems unlikely.

Peter Sagan, fresh off a second career Gent-Wevelgem win, looks ready to finally nab a monument win. He’ll be looking to force a selection on the climbs, but he can rely on his kick from a small group after that, as he combines soloing ability and sprinting chops like few others in the peloton, and appears to be in shape at the moment.

Greg Van Avermaet also brings a terrific combination of top-end speed and solo prowess. He didn’t race at E3, where he would have been among the top favorites, but his overall victory at Tirreno-Adriatico proved his strong form. With Daniel Oss as a great second, BMC should expect big things Sunday.

Sep Vanmarcke was having a quiet season until Gent-Wevelgem last week. Vanmarcke missed an early split but was able to work his way back into the mix, and then put in an attack that was reeled in only to make the final selection on the Kemmelberg not long after. The form looks to be there. And don’t underestimate him in a fast finish either—he’s steadily improved as a sprinter over the past few years.

Tom Boonen may be in the running for a record-breaking fourth career Flanders win of his own, but Etixx-QuickStep will likely look to Zdenek Stybar and Niki Terpstra as the featured riders this weekend. They’ve both shown ability on this terrain and the form looks good at the moment.

Sky has options too, with Michal Kwiatkowski, Geraint Thomas, Luke Rowe, and Ian Stannard all potential protagonists. Don’t overlook the Lotto-Soudal stable either. Youngster Tiesj Benoot and veteran Jurgen Roelandts are both riders to watch. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Lars Boom, Filippo Pozzato, Heinrich Haussler, and Matti Breschel are others worth watching in Flanders.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
Podium: Peter Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Tiesj Benoot, Michal Kwiatkowski, Alexander Kristoff, Edvald Boasson Hagen

Photo by Dane Cash.

April 3, 2016
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Preview

With E3 and Gent-Wevelgem in the books, the Tour of Flanders is almost here. Sans Fabian Cancellara (and Tom Boonen, though he would not have enjoyed the same level of favorite status as Cancellara even if he were here) the 2015 Ronde looks especially open, which should make for quite a race.

The Route

At 264 kilometers, the Tour of Flanders is a long one, and the arduous journey gets more and more difficult as the day wears on. The peloton will set out from scenic Bruges and head south towards the cobbled climbs that this race has made so famous. The route contains seventeen officially classified climbs this year, many of them repeat trips up the same ascents, as the course starts looping into itself and covering the same ground again for multiple visits to these famous hellingen.

The final string of climbs that runs from roughly kilometer 219 to kilometer 251 are the likely battleground where this race will play out. Over the top of brutal challenges like the Koppenberg, after already having been up and over so many of these cobbles all day, the peloton is likely to break apart. And if things aren’t already shattered to pieces by the time the peloton hits the final climbs of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg, the attacks are certain to fly on the long drag of the former and the vicious steepness of the latter.

After the descent from the Paterberg, it’s a mostly straight run to the line, meaning that anyone hoping to whittle down the lead group is going to look to act before the final few kilometers.

The Contenders

It’s a wide open field for the Tour of Flanders this season, with four or five riders enjoying roughly equivalent favorite status and a host of others nipping at their heels. LottoNL’s Sep Vanmarcke is certainly among the top contenders. The Belgian cobbled specialist was 3rd here in 2014 and despite never quite coming away with that big win he’s been searching for in his career, he’s displayed the grit, the bike handling, the climbing chops, and the explosive required to make a bid for glory here. The results in the run-up races of E3 and Gent-Wevelgem haven’t quite been where he would have hoped, with others appearing stronger out on the road in both events, but this is the real prize for Vanmarcke and he seems like an excellent rider to watch as the final Kwaremont-Paterberg double approaches.

Similarly versatile is Zdenek Stybar of Etixx-QuickStep, who happens to also have a true powerhouse of talent supporting him team-wise. Stybar looks to be the best of the EQS riders for this race because, among the Classics stars on this QuickStep roster, he best combines climbing legs and a powerful finishing kick. But Niki Terpstra and especially Stijn Vandenbergh, 4th here last year and extremely savvy racing these roads, give the team options. Expect to see attacks flying from all sides late in this race.

Team Sky also brings firepower with their many talented stars on the roster, with Geraint Thomas leading the way. Among the strongest climbers in this Ronde, Thomas is on terrific form right now as evidenced by his win at E3 and his follow-up 3rd place at Gent-Wevelgem. Being able to rely on Ian Stannard and Bradley Wiggins will help. With a pair of Top 10s here already on his resume and a recent win in a race that incorporated many of the same climbs, Thomas has the experience necessary to take on this race as a top favorite and it would be a big surprise not to see him try something on one of the final climbs. The question is whether he’ll be able to shed his top rivals who might give him a run for his money in a small sprint.

One rider certain to be hoping that this race ends with a small group sprinting for the win is Tinkoff-Saxo’s Peter Sagan. Flying more under the radar right now than maybe he was expecting to be due to a general lack of results this year, Sagan might have a bit of an advantage that he doesn’t usually enjoy; so often, his plans are foiled immediately because all of his rivals are eying him at all times. This year, with the focus on other riders, Sagan may have a chance to make something happen the way he wants to. The form hasn’t been too bad, and this is a major objective, so he can’t be ignored even though he hasn’t been lighting it up coming into the Ronde this year.

After a crash at E3, where his skillset would have made him one of the likely top contenders at the business end of the race, Greg Van Avermaet might be flying under the radar a bit as well. But he seems to have recovered from his fall and he has been in excellent shape so far this year. 2nd here last year and a more capable sprinter than most, he may be able to look for the right wheels to follow this year rather than launching one of his trademark “almost-good-enough” attacks. Daniel Oss makes for a terrific teammate.

Speaking of terrific teammates, Alexander Kristoff will be in good hands with Luca Paolini at his side as well. In Katusha’s pre-race press conference, Paolini was very clear in his support of Kristoff, and that solidarity will be a great boon for the Norwegian. It won’t be easy to keep this together for a sprint (which is what Kristoff will need to win here) but Kristoff is tougher than most and with Paolini to help close down attacks if necessary, he has a fighting chance. So too does John Degenkolb, who may not have much of a history in this race but who has shown that he can climb well (winning plenty of hilly, intermediate-stage type races in the past) and ride cobbles well (winning Gent-Wevelgem in 2014 and taking 2nd in Paris-Roubaix that year) which are the necessary requirements to hanging on here. Given the difficult nature of this race and the wide open field likely to see constant attacks, I think the sprinters will have a very hard time here, but Kristoff and Degenkolb are the two obvious riders to watch in that potential scenario.

Jürgen Roelandts, who proved his great form with a bold solo move in Gent-Wevelgem, also packs a quick finish and that makes him dangerous here, with the surprising Jens Debusschere as an alternative. Stijn Devolder will head up Trek’s Flanders campaign in the absence of Fabian Cancellara. Cannondale-Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld was a late addition to the startlist, recovering from a recent crash; he’s a great talent in unknown shape right now. Astana’s Lars Boom, OGE’s Jens Keukeleire, MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, and a stable of young Topsport Vlaanderen talents that includes Jelle Wallays and Edward Theuns are among the outsiders who will hope to contend.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Zdenek Stybar, Geraint Thomas
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan, Stijn Vandenbergh, Jürgen Roelandts, Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Niki Terpstra

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more roadside analysis during the race. Also, don’t miss the Recon Ride podcast, with pre-race insight from Sep Vanmarcke, Geraint Thomas, and Patrick Lefevere.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mick Knapton.

April 4, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 7: Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on Belgium’s biggest race, the Tour of Flanders, with plenty of insider insight from a few people likely to play a major role in the event.
[powerpress]

VeloHuman and Cyclocosm join forces again to present the Recon Ride Ronde van Vlaanderen Pre-race Show, with more insider knowledge than ever, thanks to interviews with race favorites Sep Vanmarcke and Geraint Thomas and EQS CEO Patrick Lefevere.

Photo by Ctankcycles.

April 3, 2015
E3 Harelbeke 2015 Preview

After weeks and weeks of EuropeTour-level one-day races in Belgium, the final weekend in March ushers in the WorldTour stretch of Classics, opening with E3 Harelbeke. It’s typically a thriller, a race that takes advantage of the cobbled climbs in Flanders and balances them nicely with a long enough finishing straight to make the aggressors work extra hard to escape the pack. In short, an excellent way to kick off the next few weeks of marquee one-day events (the great appeal of this weekend’s racing was one topic covered in the Recon Ride podcast’s E3 + Gent-Wevelgem pre-race show, which is absolutely worth a listen).

The Route

E3 Harelbeke unsurprisingly starts and finishes in the town of Harelbeke, weaving through Flanders along a meandering and often cobbled 218-kilometer route that often crosses over itself. The profile contains 17 official climbs. The first half of the race contains only three of those climbs; the remaining fourteen come in rapid succession inside the second half of the day, finishing with around 22 km to go.

Among those many short but steep climbs are several familiar Tour of Flanders battlegrounds, including the quick (700 meters in full) but vicious (12% average gradient) Paterberg at around kilometer 175 and the longer Oude Kwaremont that follows almost immediately after and is crested around kilometer 180. Even the climbs that don’t seem particularly imposing are made all the more so because of the fact that they’ll be conquered with barely a moment’s rest in between—that, and the constant bone-rattling that will accompany many of them.

Things flatten out and ease up considerably, however, after the Tiegemberg with around 20 kilometer left in the race. From there it’s a less complicated (topographically, at least; this is Belgium after all, where the roads are never easy to race on) ride as the road loops into Harelbeke for the finish.

The Contenders

Though the length of the race doesn’t bring with it quite as much of an intimidation factor as that of Flanders or Paris-Roubaix, the cobbled, uphill challenges absolutely make this a favoring the Classics hard men, which makes it unsurprising that E3 Harelbeke has mostly come down to a late attacker surviving to the in several of the past few years. Still, Tom Boonen’s 2012 victory is an important reminder that this race can come down to a sprint. With so much ground left to cover after the Tiegemberg, it will only be a very strong attack that is capable of surviving a chasing pack in this race. Even in that scenario, a decent sprint could come in handy, if a small group crosses the line together (that’s what happened in 2014, when Peter Sagan outsprinted Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh to win the day).

Fortunately for anyone who likes to watch aggressive racing, several of the Classics season’s strongest aggressors are looking in sharp form right now, making powerful attacks a likelihood for E3 Harelbeke.

34-year-old Fabian Cancellara, who looked good in a Milano-Sanremo that did not particularly suit his less-than elite field sprinting, has won E3 Harelbeke a whopping three times in his career. He won’t exact be able to fly under the radar, but he’s so strong it might not matter. On the other hand, Cancellara is facing a retirement relatively soon, and having won in the past, he may elect to ease off the gas just a tad in the upcoming Monuments. Classics veteran Stijn Devolder is a rider who could get involved as well for Trek.

Peter Sagan, last year’s winner, is certainly in the hunt for Monument victories in 2015. It’s unclear how motivated he is to give it his all in this race after his win here last season failed to quiet critics of his inability to win “the big one.” Still, his combination of Classics-soloing prowess and a deadly sprint make him an obvious favorite once again.

Unlike the aforementioned Cancellara and Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke combines a skillset well-tailored for E3 with a lack of any WorldTour results on his palmares as of yet in his career. Lately his climbing skills and his sprint have both been showing themselves nicely, and they complement his cobblestone-riding strength quite well in this eve. His team support is a bit less strong than it was in year’s past now that Lars Boom is off the team, but Vanmarcke is the total package for the Belgian Classics, and it would be a big surprise to see him doing anything other than attacking last in this race. Form, motivation, and an excellent combination of abilities make him a strong pick to finally win a race at the top level.

Greg Van Avermaet is another rider who brings an excellent combination of form and motivation into E3. Van Avermaet is one of the peloton’s best late attackers who showed top-notch soloing form with a 3rd place in the opening time trial at Tirreno-Adriatico (not typically a discipline that sees him doing particularly well). And if he does launch a trademark attack but is unable to drop everyone else in the finale, his quickness to the line in a reduced sprint could make the difference here. His teammate Daniel Oss has been having a strong season and will be a rider to keep an eye on as well.

Etixx-Quickstep and Team Sky both sport multiple-pronged attacks to light up this race as the cobbled and uphill sections start coming fast and furious. Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh head up a powerful EQS, with Stybar looking like the most fit for this race (his climbing legs and his finishing kick stand out among his teammates), especially after his Strade Bianche victory. Meanwhile, Geraint Thomas, who is such a good climber it’d be disingenuous to pigeonhole him as a “Classics specialist,” may be the strongest option on a strong Sky squad, though Ian Stannard is a major danger as well.

After his Milano-Sanremo victory, John Degenkolb looks to be the class of the group of riders coming into this race hoping for a reduced sprint. His climbing ability will be particularly useful here in E3. Alexander Kristoff is another obvious name to watch in the sprint department; he doesn’t have Degenkolb’s uphill ability but he’s strong enough that he might be able to close gaps if he loses ground on the climbs; teammate Luca Paolini is an ideal supporter and deadly second.

Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Sylvain Chavanel and Heinrich Haussler, Filippo Pozzato, Sebastian Langeveld, and Jurgen Roelandts are other top riders to watch for this race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Stijn Vandenbergh, Geraint Thomas, Zdenek Stybar, Ian Stannard, Niki Terpstra, John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis from the roadside in Flanders!

-Dane Cash

March 26, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 6: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on both of the weekend’s WorldTour one-day events in a double pre-race show of E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem.
[powerpress]

Sharing a weekend, many of the same riders, and similar Belgian terrain, E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem make for a great pair of races. VeloHuman and Cyclocosm explore the routes, the startlists, and the narratives, with a bit of help from AG2R-La Mondiale’s Hugo Houle.

Photo by shirokazan.

March 26, 2015