Tag: Simon Gerrans

Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal 2014 Post-race Impressions: Gerrans Dominates, Making Strong Statement for Upcoming World Championships

With the conclusion of the GP Montreal, the WorldTour’s yearly visit to Canada is now complete. With the World Championships around the corner, today’s race offered plenty of takeaways. Starting with the obvious, Simon Gerrans dominated the Canadian WorldTour double. Before 2014, no rider had ever won both races in the same season. Gerrans did it this week, and he made it look easy. It helped that his team rode a perfect race. They did some pace-setting early, but they let other teams do the lion’s share of the work to bring back the breakaway. Then, in the final few kilometers, Orica-GreenEdge hit the front and took control. They had plenty of riders left in the finale to put Gerrans into perfect position for the sprint, and he was so far ahead of anyone else on the finishing straight that he had both hands in the air well before the line.

Mathew Hayman spent a lot of time early in the day at the front of the peloton, driving the pace the keep the break in check.

At age 34, Gerrans seems to have just hit his prime, taking his third one-day WorldTour win this year (he also won a stage and the overall at the Tour Down Under in January). He’ll be among the top favorites for the upcoming World Champs, where a hilly circuit with a flat finish could very likely come down to a reduced sprint; current World Champion Rui Costa voiced this very sentiment in the post-race press conference.

Speaking of Costa, he said after the race that he was happy with the result. He was unable to get clear of the pack in the last few kilometers, but still had enough energy to take 2nd place in the sprint. On the one hand, the number of 2nd place finishes Costa has racked up in the rainbow jersey has to be frustrating. On the other hand, his ability to pick up so many top results is still very impressive, and after having a quiet few weeks after his Tour de France exit, he showed in Montreal that he’s returning to his best ahead of what will be a very difficult Worlds defense.

Tony Gallopin was a decent 9th place in Quebec, and a much stronger 3rd (he was inches away from 2nd, with Costa just barely ahead of him at the line) in Montreal. With Gallopin and Tim Wellens performing so well recently, Lotto Belisol has to be pleased that they’ve gone from a team essentially built to drag Andre Greipel to the line in the pure sprints to a team that can mix it up with the very best on the hilly profiles.

I wasn’t sure how to gauge the chances of Ramunas Navardauskas coming into Montreal, where the circuit is harder than that in Quebec. He proved to be quite capable on the climbs, and sprinted to 4th place. It’s been a career year for Navardauskas. He’s proved amazingly versatile, landing big results on all sorts of profiles. I said after Quebec that he’ll be a rider to watch at Worlds in two weeks, and today in Montreal he made another loud statement.

Romain Bardet, in 5th, notched his second Top 10 in a WorldTour one-day race this year, the other coming in Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He’s still just 23, and he outgunned Greg Van Avermaet, Enrico Gasparotto, and Bauke Mollema, among others, in the finishing sprint here. He may be known for his stage-racing skills, but it will be hard to overlook him in the Ardennes Classics in 2015 with results like this.

Tom Dumoulin only managed to follow up his runner-up performance in Quebec with a 6th place in Montreal, but that’s still a big ride for the Dutchman, who will continue to develop. Greg Van Avermaet probably won’t feel particularly satisfied with 7th, but he did outperform every other Belgian in Montreal, just as he did in Quebec. With Worlds team selection around the corner, that’s huge. Tom-Jelte Slagter put in another decent ride ahead of the World Championships, landing 12th, not bad with Narvardauskas getting the backing in the sprint. In 13th place and among some very impressive company, 22-year-old Petr Vakoc was the best-placed rider for OPQS. They had a strong team here in Montreal, so they probably won’t be satisfied with that, but Vakoc should take confidence from the result. He won a stage in and, very impressively, rode well enough for the remainder of the Tour de Pologne to take 10th overall, and this is another showing of ability from the up-and-coming Czech rider.

Among those who underwhelmed today was Alexander Kristoff, though I don’t find his inability to land a result here particularly surprising. Once the pace picked up in the final few laps, he struggled mightily to hold on. He was dropped with plenty of time left to go in the race, and rolled in over 8 minutes down. I don’t think it means all that much (Montreal’s climbs are tough), but it is at the very least a missed opportunity for Kristoff to prove that he can handle the tougher vertical challenges with Worlds around the corner.

Said World Championship Road Race is now just two weeks away. The ITT is only ten days away! VH will be previewing the team time trial, the individual time trial, and the road race, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 14, 2014
Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal 2014 Preview

The first of the Canadian WorldTour events is in the books, and now it’s on to Montreal. Another urban circuit race, the GP Montreal shares a hilly profile with its sister race in Quebec and, often, many of the same riders who shine in one do well in the other, but there are differences in the parcours, and no one has ever won both races in the same season. Plenty of names stand out as favorites, but the startlist is loaded with talent and the route will make a few different race scenarios possible. In short, the 2014 Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal should be an exciting race, and it won’t be easy to predict the outcome.

The Route

The 12.1 kilometer circuit (17 laps of which will make for a total race distance of 205.7 kilometers) starts along the Avenue du Parc, makes a loop along the slopes of Montreal’s namesake Mount Royal, and then finishes back where it started. There are three uphill sections in each lap. After a short downhill from the starting line, the first and most challenging climb comes almost immediately, the 1.8 kilometer, 8% average gradient Côte Camillien-Houde. Then comes a fast descent, a brief flat section, and the next uphill test, the short but difficult Côte de la Polytechnique, 780 meters at a 6% average but with a steep 11% stretch of 200 meters along the way. After another descent, things even out for a a bit until the final 1100 meters: the riders will make a right turn heading south and shoot downhill on the Avenue du Parc, and then they will make a 180 degree turn to head back up the Avenue in the other direction towards the line. That final run-in is a 560 meter, 4% climb.

The Montreal circuit is, on the whole, harder than that of the GP Quebec. The Côte Camillien-Houde, crested 17 times, will put the heavier riders into serious difficulty and will likely launch attacks that will be a lot harder to marshal than those that were swallowed up without ever being much of a real threat in Quebec. The finish in Montreal, however, is a lot easier, meaning that sprinting legs will be important if a small group of riders come to the finish together; alternatively, a strong enough solo artist could stay clear after an attack on the circuit’s difficult early slopes.

The Contenders

A one-day race parcours favoring strong climbers with explosive finishes would bring Simon Gerrans to mind even if he hadn’t just taken the win in Quebec. With the form he just showed, he’ll be a top favorite for more success here. His rivals will be watching him closely, but Gerrans told VeloHuman today that he doesn’t feel any pressure coming in as a favorite after his win, and that instead the pressure is on the other teams to get something of the race. He also said that he feels the Montreal parcours might suit OGE even better than Quebec did.

Simon Gerrans on the Montreal parcours and the riders his team will be keeping an eye on

Gerrans has the uphill ability to get over the climbs and the sprint to beat almost anyone in the race. The biggest challenge for OGE will be the hard-to-control profile; Gerrans is capable of getting into moves or even making them on his own, but lately he has preferrred holding out for the sprint in these sorts of races, and Orica-GreenEdge will have their hands full trying to keep this together if that’s how they decide to play this. They have a very strong team here, though, and hilly profile specialists like Michael Albasini, Jens Keukeleire, Pieter Weening, and Daryl Impey (on top-notch form right now) will be great allies or, potentially, dangerous alternatives.

Rui Costa was unable to get clear of the pack in Quebec and then had to cut his sprint short after Arthur Vichot went down right in front of him. Nevertheless, he was at the front as the race neared its climax. Montreal will give him a better opportunity to get aggressive. Few can launch an escape on a hilly profile as well as Rui Costa, and he has the burst of speed to win a sprint battle if need be. He’s never been outside the Top 10 in his Montreal-racing career, and he should continue to perform at a high level here. This will be an excellent opportunity for Costa to prove his form before his Worlds defense.

Quebec runner-up Tom Dumoulin should also love this attacker-friendly profile. He’s the best soloist in the startlist, and if he can get clear of the bunch, his rivals will have a hard time tracking him down. Teammate Simon Geschke, always handy in the sprints that come after hilly days, is a great alternative for Giant-Shimano.

BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet was hoping for a better result in Quebec, but Montreal will provide him with another chance at success. Van Avermaet told VH before the GP Quebec that he felt that, of the two, it suited him better. However, with the quality of punchy, fast finishers here in Canada, Montreal’s profile, more likely to spring the sort of successful long-range attacks for which Van Avermaet is known, should be good for him as well. He was 4th here last year. Don’t rule out a big ride from teammate Tejay van Garderen either; the American GC rider put in a strong dig on the final climb in Quebec, showing that he’s interested in getting involved in these races.

Bauke Mollema was the best-placed of the GC-style riders in Quebec (landing 10th), and Montreal should suit him better if he and some of the other top climbers can make for a selective race. He also packs a great sprint, and if the ascending specialists can drop the less uphill-inclined, he’ll be a dangerous contender. Sep Vanmarcke, 7th in Quebec, may find Montreal a bit hilly, but he is climbing very well this year and with his Worlds role still undetermined, he will likely be going full gas here.

Garmin-Sharp has a lot of firepower in Canada. Ramunas Navardauskas showed off his ever-widening array of skills with a strong uphill sprint to 3rd. The Montreal profile will really put him to the test, but Garmin-Sharp won’t panic if he struggles on the final few climbs: Tom-Jelte Slagter looked good in Quebec, finishing 11th, and this is an excellent race for him. Fabian Wegmann has put in strong performances here in the past as well.

Alexander Kristoff will be in for a real battle to stick with the pack if the pace is high in the final few trips up the Côte Camillien-Houde. If this does come down to a sprint, and if he has made it to the line with the lead group, he’ll have an excellent opportunity to pick up the win, as the finish is less challenging than the one in Quebec, where he only managed 21st place. Simon Spilak will again be a good second.

OPQS’s Gianni Meersman has great climbing legs (for a sprinter) and may be a bit more likely than Kristoff to stick with the peloton on the steep stuff. Having just taken 6th in Quebec, he’s showing good form right now, and he’ll be a top favorite if he’s there for a sprint. The team has options, though, with Jan Bakelants (10th in 2013) very well-suited to this sort of parcours, and with Zdenek Stybar, Julian Alaphillipe, and Matteo Trentin here as well, OPQS will undoubtedly be involved in the action.

Astana is another team bringing a versatile fast finisher and several puncheurs and climbers to be ready for any race scenario. Francesco Gavazzi will have a chance to be in the mix in a bunch sprint. Enrico Gasparotto sometimes disappears in races that would look to suit him, but having landed 8th in Quebec he looks good enough to contend on a Montreal parcours that should be very good for him. Jakob Fuglsang and Borut Bozic are other strong riders for the team.

Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin was 10th here in 2012, and he looked good in Quebec. Lotto has several great talents for this profile, with Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens here too. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Matti Breschel could get involved if a larger group comes to the line together, while Michael Rogers can never be counted out in a race with plenty of opportunities for long-range attacks. Movistar has speedy JJ Lobato, JJ Rojas, and Fran Ventoso, but all-rounder Jesus Herrada also looks strong at the moment. AG2R’s climber-heavy squad should appreciate the tougher uphill challenges in Montreal; Jean-Christophe Peraud, Romain Bardet, and Christophe Riblon will have their chances to try to get away on the slopes. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski and Frank Schleck may be thinking the same thing. Team Sky was unable to make anything out of Quebec, with Geraint Thomas struggling on the climbs, but this profile doesn’t look bad for Thomas (if Friday’s performance was just a bad day) and Edvald Boasson Hagen, and Chris Sutton looks to be strong right now as well. Cannondale’s trio of Davide Formolo, Marco Marcato, and Moreno Moser showed form in Quebec, with the first two finishing in the Top 20, and the third spending a lot of time in the morning breakaway. Europcar has Bryan Coquard for a possible sprint, and punchy Cyril Gautier and Yukiya Arashiro to animate the climbs. Team Canada will likely back Ryan Anderson, who has shown good form in his past few races.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Simon Gerrans
Podium: Tom Dumoulin, Rui Costa
Other Top Contenders: Bauke Mollema, Greg Van Avermaet, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Gianni Meersman, Tony Gallopin, Alexander Kristoff, Ramunas Navardauskas

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live coverage of the GP Montreal, and check back after the finish for post-race analysis!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Flowizm.

September 13, 2014
Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec 2014 Post-race Impressions: Gerrans Lives up to Expectations, Dumoulin and Navardauskas Continue to Prove Themselves

The first half of the Canadian Grand Prix weekend is in the books, and with another race just two days away in Montreal and Worlds looming, today’s race in Quebec offers some important takeaways.

Pre-race favorite Simon Gerrans made the loudest statement, as if his 3rd place finish in the Vattenfall Cyclassics ahead of sprinting heavyweights like Mark Cavendish wasn’t already statement enough. He’s clearly on blazing form right now. In the post-race press conference, he stated that he’s not as strong as he was back in the Spring when he won Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but he certainly seems to be strong enough. His sprint has only gotten better and better over the past few years, and that will help him Sunday in Montreal, and at the end of the month in Ponferrada. The fact that he had to overcome a late mechanical makes his win even more impressive. On the whole, Orica-GreenEdge rode a brilliant race, doing the work required to keep the early break on a tight leash, letting others take over when possible, and then positioning Gerrans perfectly for the finale. Landing a 4th place result as well (with a surging Daryl Impey) was an added bonus.

Orica-GreenEdge put in the work when necessary, but they didn’t tire themselves out too much. In the end, Simon Gerrans was positioned perfectly for the final climb.

Runner-up Tom Dumoulin and 3rd-place finisher Ramunas Navardauskas also made statements in this race, outgunning several top contenders on their way to podium finishes. Dumoulin was frustrated with yet another 2nd place, but he’s put on quite a show in 2014, with a lot of help from a very much improved finishing kick. Navardauskas has taken his sprint to the next level this year as well. He was in the mix in several bunch finishes in the Tour de France (he won a stage with a late move as well), he won the Points Classification in the Tour of Alberta, and here in Quebec he charged uphill to the line ahead with a lot of power, despite having spent time in a late breakaway attempt just a few minutes prior. His reputation as a feisty underdog is rapidly giving way to a reputation as a real contender (still feisty though) on the hilly profiles. He was actually 8th in the 2012 World Championship Road Race, and though Lithuania won’t have the team strength of Spain or Belgium, Rui Costa showed last year that a nine rider squad isn’t necessarily required to win a rainbow jersey.

Speaking of Rui Costa, we did not really get a chance to see just how strong he is right now with his Worlds defense around the corner: he was immediately behind Arthur Vichot when the FDJ rider crashed in the final moments of the Grand Prix, and he had to brake hard to stay upright. Still, Costa was lurking at the front of the race as the peloton neared the finish line, suggesting that he’s feeling strong. The GP Montreal, which he won in 2011, should be another opportunity for him to land a result.

Greg Van Avermaet will be disappointed with a 5th place finish, but it’s still a strong result and it certainly shouldn’t hurt his hopes of playing a big role in the Belgian Worlds squad. Likely Belgian Worlds squad teammate Sep Vanmarcke should be very happy with his 7th place result in his debut run here in Quebec. At 199.1 kilometers, the race is a bit shorter than the grueling spring classics that suit Vanmarcke so well, but he was in the mix at the finish anyway. His sprint and his climbing legs are getting better and better: he put them on display today with an uphill charge to the line. Gianni Meersman was the other Belgian in the Top 10, landing 6th. He was really the only rider who would generally be considered a “sprinter” to have success on the day. The gradient at the finish suited the punchier riders a bit better; Meersman should be pleased with the result.

The incline leading up at the start/finish line proved too much for Alexander Kristoff, who could only manage a 21st place. That shouldn’t be all that surprising; Kristoff can survive a tough day in the saddle, but sprinting up a long sustained gradient isn’t really his forte. It is a strength for Tom-Jelte Slagter, however, whose form was a question mark coming into the race, but an 11th place performance suggests that he’s getting back into shape for the last few races of the season. Montreal will be another good opportunity for him.

Stay tuned for more coverage of Canada’s big weekend of cycling. The Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal is now less than two days away!

-Dane Cash

September 12, 2014
Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec 2014 Preview

While the Vuelta nears its conclusion in Spain, the WorldTour is also making its yearly visit to North America, where a pair of one-day races await. First up is the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec! 199.1 kilometers in total, the GP Quebec is a circuit race consisting of 11 laps that weave through the center of the city. As a top-level race and an important part of the Worlds buildup for many riders, it usually draws a very impressive group of participants (with those who focus on the hilly classics making up much of the roster) even with a Grand Tour taking place at the same time. This year is no exception!

VH will be at the event in-person, so stay tuned here and on Twitter (@VeloHuman) for plenty of exciting coverage (previews, interviews, and post-race analysis) of the GP Quebec and the GP Montreal.

The Route

The profile of the GP Quebec always makes for a very interesting race. None of the uphill challenges on the menu seem particularly difficult at first glance, but their location on the route guarantees that they will play a major role in determining the day’s winner, either providing a launching pad for late attacks or at least whittling down the pack on the way to a reduced uphill sprint.

The race starts (and finishes) in Old Quebec. The first 6.5 kilometers of the circuit are mostly flat as the road heads away from the city center, but then things change direction and there is a very fast descent down towards the water. As the road evens out, the pack will start heading back towards Old Quebec on the relatively flat Boulevard Champlain. Just after kilometer 14 of the circuit, things suddenly become difficult. The Côte de la Montaigne is only 375 meters in length, but at a 10% average grade, with almost half the climb at a whopping 13%, it will put plenty of pressure on the less uphill-oriented riders in the peloton. A fast descent follows, and then, as the route snakes through Quebec’s urban center, ultimately winding back towards the finish, the road kicks up in a series of climbs. The Côte de la Potasse is only 420 meters long, but the average gradient comes in at 9%. It is followed by a brief dip in the road and then another short, steep test, the Montée de la Fabrique, less than 200 meters in length but at 7%. Almost immediately after comes the long uphill drag to the line, the Montée du Fort climb, 1 kilometer at an average of 4%.

By themselves, the late climbs may not look like much, but in rapid succession and coming at the end of the race, they will bring the uphill chargers to the fore. A technical urban circuit, with a few steep downhills to boot, will provide even more inspiration for the aggressive riders to attempt to escape from the pack as the day nears its conclusion.

The Contenders

The parcours makes for a very open race, where a wide spectrum of riders, including climbing powerhouses and even sprinters, will have an opportunity to pick up a WorldTour-level victory at the end of a hilly (but not too hilly) day. The 2013 edition was a perfect illustration of this: Robert Gesink, not partcularly known for his one-day race performances, outgunned would-be World Champion Rui Costa and even Peter Sagan in an uphill sprint.

Gesink himself isn’t here, but the 2014 startlist, packed with hilly classics specialists, GC-style climbers, and a few of the peloton’s more versatile quick men, should set up another unpredictable race, as everyone will fight to survive the repeated uphill tests and then either launch a late move or hold out for a group finish on the Grande-Allée. A fair bit of punch and capable climbing legs will be necessities for anyone hoping to succeed in this race.

Orica-GreenEdge, loaded with talented riders for the hilly profiles, probably couldn’t draw up a race much more suited to them than the GP Quebec or its sister race in Montreal. They bring a powerful squad to Canada to contest both. Simon Gerrans won this race in 2012, and with his skillset, he’ll be among the most dangerous riders on this parcours. The two-time Monument winner is strong enough to escape from the pack on a tough profile if he sees an opportunity, and he is deadly in an uphill sprint. With a World Championship course that suits him just around the corner, he showed excellent form in the recent Vattenfall Cyclassics, sprinting to 3rd ahead of some very impressive names, and this race fits him even more perfectly. OGE will also have Michael Albasini, Daryl Impey (fresh off a Tour of Alberta win), Pieter Weening, and Jens Keukeleire as powerful cards to play. At least one member of this impressive team should feature prominently in the finale.

BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet was 2nd in the 2012 edition of the GP Quebec, and 3rd in last year’s race. The Canadian GPs are a major target of his, and an urban circuit with the ups and downs and twists and turns to inspire late attacks is perfect for the aggressive Belgian. He showed great form in an uphill burst to a stage victory in the recent Eneco Tour, and no matter how this race plays out, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t be involved at the finish once again. Tejay van Garderen may not have much of a resume in the one-day races, but the climbing specialist (who has looked more explosive than ever this year) will make for a powerful teammate.

FDJ’s Arthur Vichot was runner-up to Robert Gesink in 2013, and just put in a top-notch display of form when he took 3rd overall in the GP Ouest France in Plouay. Vichot was very impressive in the hilly Paris-Nice in March, and he looks to be returning to a high level as the season nears its conclusion. He’s an explosive uphill charger who isn’t afraid to go solo, and he should be among the top contenders in the GP Quebec.

World Champion Rui Costa has landed back-to-back top 5s in Quebec, and with his World Champs defense approaching, he’s highly motivated to put his mark on this race again. He’ll need a challenging race to put some of the faster finishers under pressure, but there are a number of true climbing talents on this startlist (including teammate Chris Horner) that could help. Costa has a knack for success here and the ability to strike out for glory alone or outgun a small group at the line.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is in attendance and probably has claim to the title of best sprinter on the startlist. Surviving the late uphill tests will not be easy for Kristoff, and the final drag doesn’t suit him that well, but he has continually delivered on very difficult profiles in 2014 and so he can’t be counted out with his elite finishing kick. Simon Spilak is a strong alternative.

Gianni Meersman is one of the most versatile sprinters here, and he’s on strong form at the moment. He might have a chance at staying with the pack all the way to the line. If not, OPQS is loaded with other options. Zdenek Stybar has the power to make a late break for victory or to hold the wheel of anyone who does and the finishing kick to outmatch a group at the finish. Julian Alaphilippe is very strong right now and just delivered a very impressive ride in the GP Ouest France, and Jan Bakelants (who loves the hilly days) and Matteo Trentin (deadly in a reduced sprint) are even more potential protagonists for the team.

Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter has finished in the Top 10 here on back-to-back occassions, and he’s had a career year. Form is a bit of a question mark, but he has the skills to thrive here if he’s in shape. Ramunas Navardauskas, Fabian Wegmann (an impressive 4th here in 2013), and sprinter Steele Von Hoff are other great options for the team. Europcar also has riders for multiple scenarios, with Bryan Coquard a potential contender in a sprint and Cyril Gautier and Yukiya Arashiro as options if the race is too selective for Coquard. Sky has their dangerous one-two punch of Geraint Thomas and Edvald Boasson Hagen, both of them capable of striking out for solo success or holding on for an uphill sprint. Giant-Shimano has an in-form Tom Dumoulin (who packs some underrated punch) and hilly classics specialist Simon Geschke (9th last year), and between them, a good result for the Dutch team seems likely. Lotto Belisol is stacked with talented riders for the parcours, with top-notch solo artist and very fast finisher Tony Gallopin in attendance and motivated, along with Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens, who could make things very interesting on the late climb, and strong one-day racer Jurgen Roelandts. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema is obviously an elite climber, but his great finishing kick might surprise some people; don’t rule him out even in a reduced sprint (he has a great chance to follow up Gesink’s unexpected victory with one of his own). Teammate Sep Vanmarcke may be known more for his cobbled classic prowess, but his punchy style and his ability to get over the small hills should translate well here.

It’s hard to pick out one Astana rider as the most likely to land a good result in Quebec, but the team bring a serious array of talent to the race in Jakob Fuglsang, Enrico Gasparotto, Borut Bozic, Francesco Gavazzi, and Liewue Westra, and that impressive cast has among them the variety of skillsets to cover any scenario. Tinkoff-Saxo, with Michael Rogers and Matti Breschel, also has options for multiple outcomes. AG2R’s climber trio of Jean-Christophe Peraud, Christophe Riblon, and Romain Bardet should make this interesting, and don’t count out Hugo Houle either in his home country. Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti, JJ Rojas, and JJ Lobato, Cannondale’s Moreno Moreso, Marco Marcato, and Davide Formolo, and Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski and Frank Schleck are other talented riders who could be in the mix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Simon Gerrans
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Arthur Vichot
Other Top Contenders: Rui Costa, Alexander Kristoff, Gianni Meersman, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Simon Geschke, Michael Albasini, Tony Gallopin

Stay tuned for plenty more coverage of the GP Quebec and the GP Montreal, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of both races.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Cephas.

September 11, 2014
GP Ouest-France 2014 Preview

Also commonly known by its older name, the Grand Prix de Plouay (Plouay being the Breton town in which it starts and finishes), the GP Ouest-France is a long and hilly circuit race. 229.1 kilometers from start to finish, the 2014 edition involves eight laps around a 26.9 kilometer circuit, followed by a single, final lap of a reduced section (13.9 km) of the larger circuit to close things out.

The Route

The route will take the peloton on several repeated trips up and over some short but challenging climbs; almost immediately after the beginning of each full lap, the pack will hit the Côte du Lezot, a little over a kilometer in length and with much of that distance at a gradient in the realm of 6%. From the top, it’s a descent followed by a long gentle ascent up to the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois and, roughly, the midpoint of the circuit. After a flat section and then a quick downhill run, the pack will take on the Côte de Ty Marrec, only about a kilometer in length but with a long stretch in the middle nearing 10%.

The main lap, 26.9 kilometers in length with a few uphill challenges along the way.

The final lap will still look quite familiar, but with a twist: the less challenging trip to the the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois will not be a part of the last lap, which cuts out almost half the distance of the full lap, thereby squeezing the ascents of the Côte du Lezot and the Côte de Ty Marrec closer together on the course for the final go-round.

The final lap, with both of the day’s tough climbs and less time for recovery in between.

The profile makes this a very open race, where a sprint finish is possible, but also where the aggressive, punchy types could conceivably escape from the bunch, most likely on the final climb of the Ty Marrec, and grab the victory for themselves. The 2013 edition ended in a sprint that was not dramatically reduced in number of contenders, though the long day did take its toll, helping Filippo Pozzato to nab a victory over other riders who would typically be faster in a sprint. A group finish may very well happen again in 2014, but the slightly amended final lap could make things interesting, reducing the amount of time that those who struggle on the Côte du Lezot will have before the next ascent begins and putting even more pressure on the heavier purer sprinter-types. Winning this race will require either the ability to charge up the steep stuff to escape the pack, the speed to outsprint them in a sprint, or some combination of both, to survive any selection and then outmatch any other survivors at the line. Ardennes-style specialists and strong-climbing sprinters are all over the startlist, with some teams bringing multiple riders for the variety of possible scenarios.

The Contenders

Simon Gerrans of Orica-GreenEdge is one of the most capable riders in a post-climb sprint in the entire peloton, and he showed in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, where he outsprinted Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel on his way to 3rd place, that he is on blazing form. He’s fast enough, especially when his opponents have begun to tire, that he’s even got a chance against the purer sprinters should a large group reach the line together, and he’s also capable of going on a solo strike if it looks to be the best move. As a true specialist for this exact sort of race, capable of winning in a number of ways, Simon Gerrans will be a top favorite. Teammate Jens Keukeleire is another excellent card to play on this rolling profile, having shown nice form with his first GC Top 10 in a WorldTour race at the recent Eneco Tour.

As an excellent escape artist, a strong climber, and a capable sprinter, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet also has all the tools necessary to contend in this race, and his skillset was on full display in last year’s edition when he put in a late solo move and survived until he was well inside the final kilometer. A tougher finale this year may be all he needs to turn that near miss into a victory. Of all the riders in this race capable of sticking an attack, Van Avermaet, who showed his good form with an Eneco Tour victory this month, seems among the likeliest to succeed, but he can’t be counted out in a reduced bunch sprint either. Young Silvan Dillier, 9th in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, is having a great year and could be another card for BMC to play in Plouay.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff comes into the race riding high, having the best season of his career and fresh off his recent win at the Vattenfall Cyclassics. Always a strong sprinter with a knack for the bunch gallops coming after longer days in the saddle, Kristoff has taken his game to a new level this year, climbing particularly well and holding up over some extremely lengthy one-day races to put in top results. He doesn’t have the same uphill ability as Simon Gerrans, but if the punchier types aren’t able to make this race selective enough to drop him, they’ll have a hard time outsprinting him at the end of the day (and so will any other sprinting specialist who manages to survive). Given the difficulty of the parcours, it’s not a given the Kristoff will stick with the lead group to the end to contest victory, but if he is there for a bunch kick, it will be hard to look past anyone else. Luca Paolini will be with him, and the Italian veteran has proven a valuable second throughout the year.

Giacomo Nizzolo of Trek Factory racing is another top sprinter in attendance who could contend for victory if he can stay in good position over the last few ascents. Nizzolo came agonizingly close to winning the GP Ouest-France in 2013; he was well ahead of every other sprinter in the race with the finish line only a hundred meters away before Pippo Pozzato, who had waited much longer to start his sprint, passed him in the final few meters. As Nizzolo told VeloHuman this week, he’s extremely motivated to take the win in Plouay this year, and coming off of a runner-up performance in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, he is on sharp form. He’s one of the few riders in this race who has the top-end speed to challenge Kristoff should it come down to bunch sprint. Trek is fully committed to his chances, and Stijn Devolder and Danilo Hondo make up a strong support squad.

Giant-Shimano has the talented Luka Mezgec for a potential group finish. It won’t be easy to keep the young fast man at the front of affairs, but if he’s there, he’ll be a strong contender as one of the top-tier sprinters in the race, with some strong leadout riders for support.

Lotto Belisol has quite hand of cards to play, and it would be a big surprise if they didn’t have at least one rider in the Top 10 at the end of the day. Jurgen Roelandts is strong in a fast finish after a long day in the saddle; he was 4th here last year. Tony Gallopin has been away from competition for a few weeks, but he is a speedy finisher with a particular talent for getting into late moves. Tim Wellens showed immense strength in winning the Eneco Tour this year and he could get aggressive in the last lap. Jelle Vanendert is a specialist on the classics-style climbs who could try to get into a move over the Ty Marrec. It’s very hard to pick any one rider out of this group as the likeliest to succeed, but whatever happens, Lotto has several elite options for this GP Ouest-France.

OPQS is another well-staffed squad with plenty of options. Gianni Meersman is probably their best, on good form and particularly dangerous in a reduced sprint, with Matteo Trentin as a great alternative in that scenario should Meersman miss out, but Jan Bakelants is in good shape as well, and he’ll be among the top candidates to break clear of the pack in the last lap. Michal Kwiatkowski is on unknown form after a long break from racing, but he deserves a mention in any hilly one-day race, given a skillset perfectly tailored to the Plouay parcours.

Sky brings a strong one-two punch in Ben Swift and 2012 winner Edvald Boasson Hagen. Swift has the ability to hang on over some tough climbs to fight it out in the sprint. After a strong RideLondon, he didn’t perform up to his expectations in last week’s Vattenfall Cyclassics, but he told VH on Friday that he is feeling good at the moment, and that his rough day on the bike in Hamburg may have simply been a bit of training fatigue after a hard midweek block. This parcours certainly suits him. Edvald Boasson Hagen hasn’t shown the sprinting ability this year that he once displayed, but he’s still dangerous on a hilly parcours that could very well split up the pack.

AG2R has last year’s 3rd place finisher Samuel Dumoulin for a potential sprint, and they also have Blel Kadri, Romain Bardet and Christophe Riblon if they want to take an aggressive approach. Europcar has a very strong long-distance specialist in Cyril Gautier, and a top-notch sprinter in Bryan Coquard. Garmin-Sharp also has one strong rider for a sprint in Tyler Farrar and a few others who could look to get aggressive in classics specialist Sebastian Langeveld and in the versatile Tom Jelte-Slagter, a late addition to the startlist who is on uncertain form, but who does have the skillset to put in an excellent result on a profile like this if he’s in good shape. Astana could back Borut Bozic or Francesco Gavazzi in a bunch kick, or they could try to send Enrico Gasparotto, Andriy Grivko, or Maxim Iglinskiy up the road.

Sylvain Chavanel is a rider who could be very dangerous if he can escape from the pack, and he is most definitely on good form after winning the Tour du Poitou-Charentes this week. IAM Cycling also has Heinrich Haussler if this ends in a bunch gallop. Lampre-Merida’s young sprinting talent Davide Cimolai was an impressive 7th in Hamburg last week, and could be looking to get involved in a potential sprint here. Rui Costa is also on the startlist and obviously a dangerous rider on this profile, but he hasn’t raced since withdrawing from the Tour. Cannondale’s Elia Viviani landed a Top 10 in this race last year and if he can make it to the line, he’s shown nice form recently; versatile Marco Marcato will be a nice alternative. Movistar could try to set up a strong JJ Lobato for the sprint, with Fran Ventoso as a nice alternative. Romain Feillu of Bretagne – Séché Environnement has finished in the Top 10 in this race twice and could be another outside contender in a sprint. Matti Breschel of Tinkoff-Saxo is another who could be in the mix in a fast finish. Bardiani-CSF has options with the very speedy Nicola Ruffoni, the speedy and also strong-climbing Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli, and the always-dangerous-from-afar Stefano Pirazzi. Fellow Pro Continental Italian outfit Neri Sottoli has Simone Ponzi, who excels in the hilly circuit races, and Mauro Finetto, a good sprinter who can handle a few bumps. FDJ’s Arthur Vichot will like this rolling profile. Belkin has a strong squad with Lars Petter Nordhaug, Barry Markus, and Lars Boom all making the start. Julien Simon of Cofidis specializes in profiles like this and could be an outsider in a reduced sprint. Wanty – Groupe Gobert has talented veteran Bjorn Leukemans and in-form Jean-Pierre Drucker as cards to play.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Simon Gerrans
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Alexander Kristoff
Other Top Contenders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Gianni Meersman, Ben Swift, Luka Mezgec, Sylvain Chavanel, Tim Wellens, Tony Gallopin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis of the race.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Lomophoto56.

August 30, 2014
Clasica Ciclista San Sebastian 2014 Preview

For many of the biggest names in pro cycling, the Clasica de San Sebastian (or, the Donostiako Klasikoa in the Basque language) is the opening race of the post-Tour season, and with a hilly profile that always encourages attacks, it kicks off the stretch of late summer races in style. Tony Gallopin won last year’s edition ahead of some impressive competition, with most of the race’s top contenders having just completed the Tour. The 2014 edition again has an impressive startlist, again largely composed of riders fresh off of Tour de France campaigns, but with a collection of other likely protagonists who skipped this year’s running of La Grande Boucle.

The Route

The San Sebastian parcours has gotten harder and harder in recent years, as race organizers look for ways to liven up the event. This year’s route contains many of the familiar challenges of past runnings of the race, but also an addition that could play a major role in deciding the winner.

The race starts and finishes in the coastal town of San Sebastian, making a large loop and a few repeated twists and turns through the Basque countryside on the way from beginning to end. It’s a long trip at 219.2 total kilometers, and there are plenty of uphill tests on the menu.

The harder climbs of the San Sebastian are categorized, and there are six such challenges on the route of the 2014 edition, with most coming after 100 kilometers of racing (though the Category 1 Iturburu climb, crested around kilometer 60, is no slouch). A bit before the peloton reaches kilometer 120, the road kicks upward for the next major test, the climb that has become a staple of this race: the Jaizkibel. It’s another Category 1 ascent, roughly 8 kilometers in length at an average gradient well over 5%. After a testy descent, it’s not long before the riders reach the Cat. 2 Arkale, a short but steep climb and the third categorized test of the day. From the top of the Arkale, the pack will make a downhill trip right back to the foot of the Jaizkibel, where they’ll take on both the Jaizkibel and then the Arkale for a second time. This repeat journey is followed by the final run-in to finish line, with one final challenge in the way: the most significant alteration made to this route, the Bordako Tontorra climb to Igeldo, a short but steep Cat. 2 crested just over 7 kilometers from the finish. It’s less than 3 kilometers long but with an average gradient nearing 10% and sections in the 20% range, it’s a serious challenge that will be provide the punchy climbers with an excellent launching pad, especially given the high-speed descent that follows, leaving little room for much regrouping before the finish line at 219.2 kilometers is reached.

A long route, plenty of hills, occasional road furniture, and the ever-present threat of bad weather that exists in this area make the Clasica de San Sebastian truly worthy of its “Classic” title. This will be a hard-fought battle, where attrition will take its toll as aggressive all-rounder types take every opportunity to push the pace on the climbs.

The Contenders

The parcours opens a variety of possible scenarios, making it very hard to predict how things will play out: this race could be decided with a long-range attack, it could come down to a rider or a small group of riders escaping in the tough final kilometers (I see this as the most likely outcome), or it could even come down to a sprint among a reduced field. All things considered, this a hilly classic that tends to favor riders who specialize in riding hilly classics. Grit to handle the length of the journey and the possible bad conditions, punchy climbing legs for the obvious uphill challenges on the profile, and soloing ability to make or bridge over to attacks are prerequisites for success here, with a fast finish another useful tool to have should a small group arrive at the line together. A startlist filled with climbing powerhouses, Ardennes Classics protagonists, and versatile fast men reflects the importance of all these traits.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is a dangerous rider in hilly one-day races which is probably why he has had so much success here in the past—he won in 2008, and was runner-up in last year’s edition. The late climb added to this year’s parcours suits him perfectly, and will make his ability to charge uphill even more valuable. While he is coming off of a relatively disappointing Tour de France campaign, unable to manage a podium result despite the absence of Chris Froome and Alberto Contador, there is still plenty to be said for being on good enough form to be 4th in the Tour de France, and this race fits his talents quite well, making him a top favorite for the win. Movistar has several other strong riders on this startlist too, with climbing specialist Igor Anton, fast-finishing JJ Rojas, and well-rounded Giovanni Visconti all potential protagonists themselves.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan may inspire Movistar to repeat their strategy of 2013 (setting a vicious pace over the climbs to wear down the less climbing-oriented fast finishers in the bunch). There are a few versatile sprinter-types in this race, but none will inspire as much fear as the Tour’s green jersey winner, who can handle some tough climbs and who isn’t afraid to launch an attack if he sees an opportunity. The 2014 San Sebastian profile will really put his uphill ability to the test, however; the addition of a Cat. 2 in the final 10 km makes an already difficult-to-control race even harder to control, reducing the likelihood of a sprint finale. If Sagan is forced to hang on for the last ascent alone with a select few climbing specialists, he may struggle. If he is near the front of the lead group on the slope of the final climb, he has a great shot at winning. Sagan presents every other fast finisher hoping for a sprint with a major conundrum: if any quick man in San Sebastian can make it to the line, Sagan probably can, too, and he’s a hard rider to beat. Any team with sprinting aspirations will hope to isolate him while putting their own man in the best possible position as the day nears its conclusion. Meanwhile, Alessandro De Marchi is a very strong climber who could act as an alternative should Sagan falter.

Tony Gallopin came into last year’s race somewhat under the radar, a 25-year-old who, though talented, had not not landed too many big results in his career up to that point. As the returning champion and a recent Tour stage winner and yellow jersey wearer, Gallopin won’t have that luxury any more, but he’ll still be a strong option. He has been delivering nice results all year, growing as a climber and as a consistent threat in the tough one-day races. He can sprint if need be, but he’s more than capable of escaping from a pack if he feels the need to distance faster finishers. Ardennes specialist Jelle Vanendert makes for a terrific teammate who can put pressure on Lotto’s rivals on the steep stuff, while Tim Wellens is having an excellent year and should thrive on this profile. He came close to a stage win in the Tour de Wallonie, putting in a late attack on the final day that was only swallowed up in the final few kilometers, and that aggressive style will serve his squad well here. Lotto is well-staffed to defend their title in this race.

As is usually the case in a race with a hilly profile, Orica-GreenEdge should be in the mix with quite a collection of potential protagonists, with Simon Gerrans as a strong team leader capable of winning in a variety of scenarios. The final climb is very steep, but Gerrans has put in some great performance on high gradients so far this year, and if he can follow the inevitable attacks in the last few kilometers, he’ll be difficult to beat at the line. Michael Albasini will play the role of dangerous second. Simon and Adam Yates and Jens Keukeleire are other alternatives who can handle climbs and a long day of racing.

BMC has a lot of firepower for the Clasica de San Sebastian. Philippe Gilbert won here in 2011, and assuming he has recovered from a recent bout of illness, he’s on good form right now and will love this profile, especially given the new climb added at the tail end of the day. Few can launch an uphill attack with the potency of Philippe Gilbert, and should anyone stick with the former World Champ if he does make a move late, he has a nice sprint, to boot. Greg Van Avermaet is another well-rounded option who is likely to try for a long-distance strike, while Tejay van Garderen offers impressive climbing chops should any of the real mountain specialists try to turn this into a battle of true climbers. Silvan Dillier is yet another versatile talent for the team.

OPQS is also a team with plenty of firepower (this almost goes without saying, given the amount of talent this team has for one-day races). Zdenek Stybar has not racked up too many major results lately outside of his national championships, but he has the skillset to be in the mix in a classics-style race. Jan Bakelants is another option. The very capable Gianni Meersman will hope to hang on for a sprint. It won’t be easy, but he packs one of the most impressive sprinting and climbing combos in the sport, and, like Peter Sagan, he’ll have a better chance than most fast men of surviving all the way to the line. Even young Julian Alaphilippe, an up-and-comer with a well-rounded skillset, could be in the mix.

Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas is fresh off a Tour de France stage win in which he put his aggressive stlye on display, but he’s also got a very fast finish in case he reaches the line with company. The climbs in this race will put him to the limit, though, especially that last one. If he can’t hold on, Garmin has other impressive options in Daniel Martin and Tom-Jelte Slagter, who will look to break the race open on the steep stuff. Martin appears to be recovered from his Giro crash, and this is an excellent profile for him. If he’s back on form, he will be a strong contender for victory here. Slagter has cooled somewhat since his hot start to the year but the parcours suits his well-rounded skillset very well, and if he can find some form by the start time, he’ll be a dangerous rider.

Daniel Moreno and Joaquim Rodriguez always make for a potent dynamic duo when short, steep ascents are on the menu. Moreno has not raced for weeks, while Rodriguez did not look to be back at his best yet during the Tour, making both of them question marks, but on-form, they both have what it take to put up a serious fight for the win, with Alexandr Kolobnev and Yuri Trofimov candidates mix it up as well.

Several teams look to be going all-in for strong GC-style climbers, hoping for a selective race with all of the uphill challenges. In Romain Bardet, AG2R has a dangerous option should the tough climbs wear down the weaker climbers. Bardet may not be well-known for his one-day racing prowess, but was an impressive 10th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege this year. He will be a top option if the puncheurs and sprinters start to lose ground, but he’ll need this to be a particularly difficult race if he wants any shot at victory. He’ll have help making the climbs as difficult as possible from a few other squads. Belkin brings Bauke Mollema and Laurens Ten Dam. Ten Dam seems to be equal or maybe even better form right now, but Mollema has the fast finish and explosive uphill charging ability to make him a strong contender on this parcours. This is also a nice profile for Nick van der Lijke, though he’ll be recovering from a crash sustained in the final stage of the Tour de Wallonie. Tinkoff-Saxo is another team built around strong GC-style climbing talent in Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers. Roche was 5th here last year. Trek is also heavily climber-oriented, with Haimar Zubeldia (on great form right now) and Frank Schleck in attendance. Sky’s Mikel Nieve was an impressive 4th in this race in 2013 and David Lopez is a strong alternative; both could thrive if enough teams organize an effort to make this a hard race.

Astana sends a number of riders fresh from lieutenancy roles at the Tour, including Lieuwe Westra and Tanel Kangert, as well as strong climber Mikel Landa (6th last year) and hilly classics specialist Maxim Iglinskiy. Giant-Shimano has a well-rounded talent for this race in Simon Geschke, who may not have the palmares of Philippe Gilbert or Alejandro Valverde, but who could be a strong outsider with this parcours. Lawson Craddock and Chad Haga are options to try to go from afar. Europcar has Pierre Rolland, Cyril Gautier, and Thomas Voeckler to liven up the race on the ascents, while FDJ also has options in Arthur Vichot, Arnold Jeannesson, Anthony Roux, and Kenny Elissonde.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Philippe Gilbert, Simon Gerrans
Other Top Contenders: Romain Bardet, Daniel Martin, Peter Sagan, Daniel Moreno, Joaquim Rodriguez, Tony Gallopin, Bauke Mollema

As usual, I’ll be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more! Also, be sure to check back Saturday for the preview of the Tour de Pologne.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Luken.

August 1, 2014