Tag: Simon Gerrans

Tour Down Under 2014 Post-race Impressions: Big Names Battle for the Year’s First Big Win

Recapping 2014’s First WorldTour Race

When the season is in high gear I’ll only be recapping the bigger races or the blocks of bigger races (ie., the Ardennes week), but there are over thirty WorldTour-less days ahead and the six day race that finished in Adelaide on Sunday is more than worthy of some analysis. As such, I’ve compiled a few takeaways from the big January event.

Any sort of retrospective on the Tour Down Under that aims to draw conclusions with meaningful predictive power ought to make a clear disclaimer before offering any emphatic endorsements of this rider or that for the new year: due to its position on the calendar, more than a month before the next race at the highest level of the sport, the Tour Down Under is not always a reliable test of rider form for a new season. Cameron Meyer, who won the 2011 edition, and Tom-Jelte Slagter, winner of the 2013 TDU, proceeded to have anonymous seasons after their bright victories in Australia to start the season. Simon Gerrans, on the other hand, went on to nab his first career Monument classic victory after he won the 2012 edition of the race. In other words, perhaps the top form exhibited again by Gerrans this week is a sign of future success (and he is targeting Milano-San Remo again this year), or perhaps it is a poor indicator of probable form months from now: the point is simply that one ought to be careful drawing too many conclusions from this race.

The Narrative, and Takeaways from the Race

Caveats made, on with the analysis. The GC-leading quartet of Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans, Diego Ulissi, and Richie Porte were all particularly impressive in their 2014 WorldTour debuts. Only one second separated 1st and 2nd place, and only ten seconds separated 1st and 4th; all four won stages. Gerrans was a big favorite coming into the race (tipped by yours truly to win), and the other three were also included in VeloHuman’s pre-race top 10, so it can’t be said that there was all that much surprising at the very top of the General Classification. For what it’s worth, Gerrans looked on top form and displayed his trademark versatility, climbing with the best and sprinting for every possible second; should he maintain that form into the spring, the rest of the peloton had better watch out. Said versatility nabbed him the bonus seconds necessary to get the tiniest of legs up on Cadel Evans for the overall victory. Evans and Richie Porte both put in strong performances showing their own high level of form. Both are targeting later season Grand Tour success, and this certainly looks to have been a fine start; Porte looks to be aiming for success at the Giro this year, and after seeing potential main Giro Nairo Quintana take an emphatic win in the Tour de San Luis this week, the Sky rider will be happy to have had some success of his own in the meantime.

Of the foursome that quickly become the group of real contenders in this race, Diego Ulissi stands out to me as the rider whose performance is most worthy of a place in any analysis of this race’s “takeaways.” In 2011, the Italian put himself on the map with a Giro stage win, and he went on to pick up a number of smaller Italian races over the next year or so. Last year, he appeared to reach another level with a good showing in Paris-Nice and a stage win in the Tour of Poland before a hot October that saw him nab three Italian one-day race victories, including prestigious semi-classic Milano-Torino. However, so many of his successes have come either against weaker competition or at just one step below the highest level of the sport–and while his combination of explosive climbing and fast finishing have marked him out as one to watch, but he’s also disappeared on some of the larger stages. When he was not lighting up the Italian semi-classics, he was a DNF in the World Championship race and an also-ran at Il Lombardia. In the 2014 Tour Down Under, however, he went up against some of the sport’s very best and consistently performed at the elite level. He blew past Evans and Gerrans in Stage 2 after timing his sprint perfectly, and held onto his high place all the way through to the end, managing his podium spot with a total of four top 5 finishes in Australia, and it is that day-in, day-out consistency that he has been lacking. After this, I know I’ll be more confident tipping Ulissi to hold his own for more than a flash of brilliance in future races.

24 year old Nathan Haas proved to be perhaps the biggest surprise of the race. Although he won the 2011 Japan Cup Cycle Road Race with his impressive finishing kick and claimed 2nd in the 2012 Tour of Britain to Jonathan Tiernan-Locke, Haas has not had many chances to shine at the WorldTour level against the biggest names around. Not until this past week, at least. When pain from a pre-race injury proved to be the end of GC hopes for Rohan Dennis, Garmin-Sharp didn’t miss a beat, and Nathan Haas stepped right up to the plate. While he’s obviously showed ability in the past, I think it’s safe to say that not many people expected him to finish in the top 20 of every stage in the Tour Down Under, including a second place finish at the head of the bunch sprint behind Cadel Evans on stage 3. His consistent performance landed him 5th overall in the Tour. It will be interesting to see if Garmin quickly gives him another opportunity to follow up on his stellar trip home to Australia. Hopefully, we will have a chance to watch Haas building on this week again soon.

Geraint Thomas wasn’t really a surprise in the top 10, but it was nice to see him climbing at such a high level. As I said in the initial preview, I feel that much is said about Geraint Thomas despite a general lack of data, but his 8th place here, only a few seconds behind proven climber Robert Gesink, is another positive showing, especially given the fact the Sky was clearly riding for Richie Porte in this race. Daryl Impey, as well, wasn’t a big surprise in the top 10, but to land in that company while also riding in such successful support for Simon Gerrans is no small feat–Impey has really put together a fine last twelve months, and Orica-GreenEdge has surely taken note. Look to see Impey feature more as the main man for the Australian squad in races to come this year.

Though his legend has grown as he has built an amazing streak of consecutive Grand Tour appearances, Adam Hansen has only claimed a few major successes in his career (most notably, a Giro stage last year). However, the Australian nabbed the King of the Mountains jersey and a spot in the top 10 overall in the Tour Down Under with a noteworthy combination of the aggressive style necessary to pick up mountain points in a break and the endurance necessary to hang on in the bunch after being swept back into the peloton. His Lotto-Belisol squad, so often a sprint-first team, has got to be pleased with the showing, and they must be looking forward to the next race knowing that Hansen has what it takes to stay out front for the long haul, proudly displaying the Lotto-Belisol logo.

Speaking of Lotto-Belisol and sprints, there wasn’t really any question of competition in the two flat days at this year’s TDU. Andre Greipel blew away his opponents, and he did it largely thanks to his dominant leadout train. In stage 4, his leadout man Jurgen Roelandts was so strong that he finished 2nd behind Greipel himself and ahead of the designated sprinters of every other team in the race. Greipel’s stage 6 leadout was similarly impressive; from the moment he kicked it was clear the Gorilla would claim the day. Coming into the race, the sprints in this Tour looked to be a battle royale between Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel, but Kittel was anonymous throughout the week, his only success in Australia a victory at the warm-up prelude, the People’s Choice Classic. At age 31, Greipel is still riding high, and his leadout only gets better with time.

Astana and Movistar both failed to land any of their very talented squads in the top 10, which must be a letdown for both teams; Francesco Gavazzi and Javier Moreno both started well only to be left in the dust when Cadel Evans forced serious selection on stage 3. Trek’s Frank Schleck also had a rather forgettable trip to Adelaide, unable to hang on when the going got tough. That Katusha’s squad of unknowns could place a man in the top 10 (chapeau to Egor Silin, by the way!) must not sit well with any of those teams.

Fortunately, everyone gets another shot at glory relatively soon, as, even with a fair bit of time until the next big race, the 2014 season is officially underway. The Tour Down Under gave us a first glimpse at many of the big names in the pro peloton and the early classics should be a good opportunity for guys like Simon Gerrans and Diego Ulissi to show of continued form. Don’t forget about races like the Volta ao Algarve and the Tour Méditerranéen Cycliste Professionnel during the month and a half long drought before the next WorldTour race, Paris-Nice.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Kym Della-Torre.

January 29, 2014
Tour Down Under 2014 Preview

Lifting the Curtain on the 2014 WorldTour

The long offseason break is finally coming to an end. The WorldTour peloton is getting clipped back in at the 2014 Santos Tour Down Under this Tuesday in Nuriootpa (and a sizeable group is also gearing up for the Tour de San Luis in Argentina instead). While the cyclocross season draws to its conclusion in the frigid Northern Hemisphere, the WorldTour kicks off under the hot Australian sun. Since we last watched the biggest names in the sport hunting for success on the road, the cycling world has seen a few changes, as it does every year. Some big names have moved to new teams. A few new faces will make appearances at the highest level, where others have hung up the proverbial cleats. Vacansoleil and Euskaltel will be conspicuously absent from the roads Down Under, their long tenures in the pro ranks now complete. Meanwhile, Europcar has been elevated to the top level, guaranteeing that we’ll be seeing a lot more of the French squad. After so many dull days waiting for the next event, the ever popular Tour Down Under will finally offer the year’s first in-competition look at the 2014 WorldTour peloton.

The six-stage race has gotten hillier and hillier over the past few years; there was a time when star sprinter Andre Greipel could win the General Classification (he did, twice), but that time is probably past. While there are no real mountains along the road to the finish line in Adelaide, there are several steep climbs that will force selection before the week is done.

All-rounder Roundup

With almost two months until the next race on the WorldTour calendar, the Tour Down Under is always a race full of uncertainty–it’s hard to tell who is on form this early in the season. Only a handful of competitions have been held thus far in the year, leaving little data worth utilizing for prediction. Fortunately, a number of the race’s biggest stars just engaged in a clash of Aussie Titans at the Australian National Championship title last week. The collection of high profile names didn’t disappoint: unsurprisingly, at the end of the day it was Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans, and Richie Porte vying for the finish line. Gerrans, whose burst has nabbed him so many wins over his career, was easily the fastest man to the line, leaving elder statesman Cadel Evans to settle for runner-up and Porte in third. Fresh off their perfomances in Nationals, the trio of Aussie riders are all numbered among the favorites for this week’s Tour Down Under, with new champion Gerrans at the head of the line.

Even had he not just shown his current condition, Gerrans would have the make up to be considered a major contender in this race. Not only has he won it twice already, in 2006 and 2012, but the race suits him more and more these days as short, steep climbs are injected to add excitement to the contest. The former Milan-San Remo winner has explosiveness in spades, and we’re sure to see it on Corkscrew Hill in stage 3 and Old Willunga Hill in stage 5. Having demonstrated his form, Gerrans is the man to beat in his home tour, and it doesn’t hurt that he’ll have some of Oz’s finest pros backing him. He can rely on the likes of Daryl Impey and Simon Clarke as stellar support (or second choices if need be) when the going gets tough.

Cadel Evans, for one, won’t be going down without a fight. He still feels he has a lot left in the tank and he’ll want to use this opportunity to prove it. He may not have the punch of Gerrans, but he’s no slouch for quick speed, he’s clearly in form, and he’ll have a nice supporting cast with last year’s 5th place finisher in this event, Ben Hermans, at his side. Richie Porte, meanwhile, heads into 2014 with the loftiest ambitions of his career, setting his sights on a Grand Tour victory and hoping to claim a spot among the sport’s top stage racers. Grand Tour season is a long way off, but Porte looked good at Nationals. He doesn’t have the explosiveness or finishing move of his aforementioned compatriots, but he’s a determined contender, and he’s also quite a bit younger. Sky also has Geraint Thomas, 3rd in last year’s edition, as a second card to play, though the bumps in the road may not quite suit his skillset; still he’s a multi-talented, aggressive rider who has shown a knack for success here,and his fast finish could be vital in a race for bonus seconds. Bernie Eisel and Ian Stannard are along for support as well.

Rohan Dennis might have been another high finisher in last weeks Australian Nationals, but he caught a bit of misfortune in the run-up to the race, crashing while time trialing. The incident did not leave him seriously injured, but it did cause him a fair bit of pain from which he is still recovering. The young all-rounder from Garmin-Sharp pulled out of the champs race but has had more time to recover since then, and he showed a very versatile array of skills in 2013. Depending on how well he has healed up, Dennis could pose a major challenge to his more established countrymen in the GC competition–he was 5th in the 2012 edition when he was just 21 years old, and he’s shown serious improvement on all levels of his game since then.

However, a second round of Australian Nationals this race is not; it’s a WorldTour competition, and it draws serious world-class, international talent. There will be plenty of challengers, familiar and not-so-familiar, hungry to pick up the first big race of the year far from home. Last year’s winner Tom-Jelte Slagter will be absent from the startline, so a repeat victory is not in the cards for him. His former team Belkin sends one of its top talents to pick up the slack in Robert Gesink. An up-and-down 2013 ended on a rather high note when Gesink redeemed his lackluster Giro d’Italia with a surprise win in Quebec, a top 10 in Lombardy and another top 10 in the Tour of Beijing. He showed a greatly improved finishing kick in his late season success, and with Jack Bobridge (the 5th place finisher in last week’s Nationals) and two other Aussies as well as workhorse Stef Clement for backup, Gesink could be a force to be reckoned with.

Few teams are coming to this race as stacked as Movistar, which is probably a sentence that can apply to most of their races these days. The Tour Down Under squad, however, does not include the team’s two biggest names, Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde. Instead, the group is composed of a bevy of versatile riders hungry for a chance at glory while their more well-known teammates are elsewhere. For the rest of the year, Javier Moreno will likely ride in support of said teammates, but January in Australia is the time and place for Javier Moreno to make his mark on the WorldTour. He was runner-up and King of the Mountains in the 2013 edition and 8th the year before that, and he’ll have a powerful team backing him. I’m not sure I see him standing atop the podium, but another top 10 finish seems attainable. JJ Rojas may focus more on nabbing single stages, but it’s possible that he might aim for GC as well. Giovanni Visconti could have been another strong option in this race, but he unfortunately suffered a broken leg this weekend and will be sidelined for weeks while he recovers.

I see Jan Bakelants, riding at the head of new team Omega Pharma-Quick Step, as one of the most dangerous challengers in this race. 6th here in 2012, Bakelants really came into his own in 2013, with a stage win in the Tour de France, top 10s in the Eneco Tour and the Tour of Beijing, and a one day victory at the Grand Prix de Wallonie. In all of these events, he earned his success with strong climbing ability and a fast finish, which, as has already been mentioned, will be necessary to challenge for GC here. Also boasting top-shelf climbing punch and a fast finish, and also coming off a career year, Lampre’s Diego Ulissi is the other non-Aussie I consider among the most likely contenders in this race. Ulissi does have a habit of disappearing in big races (late last year he was a non-factor through most of the Vuelta, in the World Championship Road Race, and in Il Lombardia, while claiming a string of fantastic victories in one-day Italian races during the very same time period), but he’s shown elite talent. Having proven himself as a force to be reckoned with last year, he’ll be the guy for Lampre in this and many other races this year, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the spotlight.

Astana is another team full of talented riders who will have a rare chance to be more than domestiques. Enrico Gasparotto, Andriy Grivko, Francesco Gavazzi, and Lieuwe Westra are all capable contenders. Gasparotto in particular has quietly established himself as a rider to watch on the punchy climbs, and Grivko finished last year with high placings in the World Championship Race and the Eneco Tour thanks to a similar skillset. Only Orica-GreenEdge can rival Astana in terms of the number of viable GC contenders at the Tour Down Under.

To name a few others: Saxo-Tinkoff’s Rory Sutherland, Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts, Giant-Shimano’s Simon Geschke, AG2R’s Maxime Bouet, Cannondale’s up-and-comer from New Zealand George Bennett, FDJ’s Jussi Veikkanen and Kenny Elissonde, and, of course, Trek’s Frank Schleck, back to racing after his doping suspension–there’s no telling what sort of form he’s on, but the podium finisher in the 2011 Tour de France is obviously a strong candidate for GC if he has his legs. That’s the story behind most of these predictions really; fortunately, the wait to find out what state our contenders are in is almost over.

Stagehunters

The opportunities for sprinters may be lessened in recent editions of this race, but that hasn’t stopped two of the world’s big three pure sprinters from making the trip. Andre Greipel has had a great deal of success in his many trips Down Under, and his always-effective leadout train is with him, but they’ll have their hands full against Marcel Kittel and his own supporting cast. Stages 4 and 6, with flat run-ins to the finish, are the most likely to see their battle royale.

Other fast men hoping to pick up stage wins include Elia Viviani of Cannondale, the JJs Rojas and Lobato of Movistar, the Van Poppel brothers on their new team, Trek Factory Racing, Michael Matthews and Matthew Goss of Orica-GreenEdge, Andrew Fenn and Mark Renshaw of OPQS, Garmin-Sharp’s Steele von Hoff, Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari, and Caleb Ewan of UniSA-Australia, to name a few. Given the importance of explosiveness in the Tour Down Under GC battle, many of those mentioned as ochre jersey hopefuls could just as easily vie for stage victories.

Uncertainty is the name of the game in the Santos Tour Down Under, guaranteeing surprises every year (Tom-Jelte Slagter was certainly a surprise winner in 2013). As the curtain opens on the 2014 season, we can expect the unexpected in Australia–while the many big names in attendance are sure to deliver fireworks, this race tends to bring new names to the fore as well, and what better way to start a new year than with new faces looking to make their mark at the sport’s highest level.

VeloHuman Predictions

General Classification Winner

Simon Gerrans

GC Podium

Richie Porte, Jan Bakelants

GC Top 10

Diego Ulissi, Cadel Evans, Javier Moreno, Robert Gesink, Enrico Gasparotto, Rohan Dennis, Geraint Thomas

-Dane Cash

Photos by Daniel Lang and Anthony Cramp.

January 19, 2014
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 0: Where We Stand, and Looking Ahead to Stages 1-3

Day 0: Starting with a Bang

No easing into this one. The Vuelta opens with a team time trial and back-to-back steep uphill finishes. That means the contenders will have to be on their game from the moment they clip in on the first stage. I’ve already covered most of “where we stand” in my comprehensive race preview, so let’s get to it.

Stage 1: Vilanova de Arousa > Sanxenxo | 27km | Team Time Trial

It isn’t a long team time trial, and it’s not hilly either. Omega Pharma-Quick Step will be hoping to defend their world TTT title at the upcoming championships in Italy, and after just missing out in the Tour de France, they will be gunning for this one. Tony Martin leads the squad, but they are missing some of their big pieces, like Sylvain Chavanel and Niki Terpstra. Still, they’ve got some talent here. Astana’s strong squad looks poised to challenge them. Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff both have a boatload of talented riders, but this parcours might be a bit flat for them. Sky’s roster isn’t packed with as many TT stars as it was in the Giro and the Tour, but they’ll probably be alright. Speaking of the Tour, Orica-GreenEdge fielded a very different squad there, and I don’t expect them to provide back to back Grand Tour TTT wins. RadioShack – Leopard will be led by Fabian Cancellara. Don’t overlook them, despite their aging roster behind him. Traditional favorites BMC and Garmin aren’t packing many heavy hitters. Katusha will be gunning to keep Purito from losing too much time.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Astana | 2. Omega Pharma-Quick Step | 3. Movistar | 4. Radioshack-Leopard

Stage 2: Pontevedra > Monte da Groba | 176.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

We had to wait until the eight day of the Tour de France to get a summit finish. The Vuelta will be cutting to the chase much more quickly. The run to the top of Monte da Groba includes a Category 3 climb well before the halfway point and is otherwise pretty flat. However, 11km before the finish, the road turns up and stays steep until the summit finish. The average grade is 5.6%, with a 10% section early, a litte break in the middle, and then an 8% section near the top. It’s an early test, and gaps will surely form, but they aren’t likely to be devastating. Carlos Betancur has had plenty of time to rest since the Giro, and while it’s possible he might not be able to sustain a high level all Vuelta, he’s sure to be gunning for every uphill finish out there. For all his success, he has yet to claim his first WorldTour win. I’ll take a few stars of the Giro here, who have had plenty of time to recharge since they last Grand Toured. It’s also possible that a non-GC threat could be allowed to go up the road.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Carlos Betancur | 2. Sergio Henao | 3. Vincenzo Nibali

Stage 3: Vigo > Mirador de Lobeira | 172.5km | Medium Mountains

Stage 2’s finish isn’t backbreaking, but it should tell us at least a little bit about what’s what in this Vuelta. That means that anything I have to say about a Stage 3 could be completely out-of-date by the time the riders take to the road on Monday, but I’ll go ahead and make some predictions anyway. Until the last 4 kilometers, Stage 3 presents the riders with nary a hill. Then comes the finish, a climb of roughly 6%. With such a flat profile leading into the day’s only real climb, which is a short one, competition will be hot and heavy as the peloton hits the Cat. 3 at a very high pace. It’s steep, but not that steep, and the slope eases a bit in the last few hundred meters; a group of hard-chargers could come across the line together. The last image I saw of Philippe Gilbert was a bloodied and bruised leg post-crash in the Eneco Tour, but he is back on the bike and will love this opportunity to nab his first win of the year, especially after coming so close in Benelux (where he was 2nd on an uphill sprint to Arnaud Demare before crashing on the stage that perhaps best suited his skills). Other familiar hard-finishing, uphill-capable names could be in the mix as well. Alejandro Valverde and Purito Rodriguez should jump at the opportunity to pick up bonus seconds with a short uphill sprint. Roman Kreuziger, Simon Gerrans, Dan Martin, and Bauke Mollema might be in the hunt, too.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Philippe Gilbert | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Simon Gerrans | 4. Joaquim Rodriguez

-Dane Cash

Photo by Sean Rowe, Profiles from www.lavuelta.com.

August 23, 2013
Tour de France 2013 Day 3: Where We Stand After Three Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 4-7

Day 3: A Wild Corsican Start

Eschewing a prologue this year, the Amaury Sport Organization decided to kick of the Tour de France with a flat stage and two hilly stages, ensuring action from the get go. We knew stage 1 would be hairy, ridden at times on narrow, windy roads even if it was flat, but we never could have predicted the crash-ridden affair that was. The Orica-GreenEdge team bus arrived at the finish late and (according to them team) was waved through the finish line toward the parking area… despite the fact that the gantry (a structure built set up several meters above the finish line that serves multiple purposes for signage and timing) had already been put in place. Predictably, the bus got stuck under the apparatus when the riders were less than an hour out, and what was initially a humorous affair turned crazy when the race staff could not manage to get the bus out. Over race radio, they informed the riders of an incident, and officially moved the finish line 3km closer… Minutes later, as the riders were closing in on the new makeshift finish line, staff succeeded in moving the bus, and back over race radio came the organizers, letting the riders know that the finish was now the original finshing line. Moments later (probably largely as a result of the confusion and rapid change in tempo), a few riders touched wheels and a massive crash took down a number of big names, including Peter Sagan, Tony Martin, and Alberto Contador. Stage favorite Mark Cavendish stayed upright but was stuck behind the carnage. A severely reduced bunch escaped the mess and among them was, Marcel Kittel, who managed to gallop to the stage win, his first in the Tour de France. Typically, if a crash occurs in the last three kilometers of a race, riders are given the time of the group they were with pre-crash; therefore, while the crash did not occur within there kilometers of the original finish, what with all the confusion about the finishing line caused through no fault of the riders, it was all but expected procedure when race organizers gave all riders the same time for overall classification on the day. While Tony Martin had to take a trip to the hospital, and others suffered bruises and cuts, nobody was too seriously injured.

Marcel Kittel wore yellow for Stage 2, and all 198 original riders managed to made the start, scabs and sore elbows be damned. Unfortunately for Kittel, the hills proved to much for the young rider, and he was dropped from the bunch, along with Cavendish and Greipel, well before the finish line. What looked like Sagan’s day to lose became much more exciting when a group of six riders struck out for glory from the pack after the day’s final descent with only a few kilometers to go, Sylvain Chavanel among them. Sagan and the rest of the peloton gave vigorous chase and rounded up all but Radioshack’s Jan Bakelants, who managed to huff and puff his way to a one second victory over the hard charging sprinters. With it came the yellow jersey and a 1 second lead over the others. Sagan took second on the day.

Stage 3 was even hillier, and once again, the flatland sprinters found themselves distanced on the climbs, leaving familiar names like Peter Sagan, Edvald Boasson Hagen and Simon Gerrans to duke it out for the win. Gerrans enjoyed a perfect leadout round the final corners and down the straightaway, and despite Sagan’s best efforts to ride Orica-GreenEdge’s wheels (a number of Cannondale riders couldn’t hang on over the climbs) before launching toward the finish, he ran out of road and Gerrans claimed Orica’s first ever Tour de France win. Sagan nabbed another second and with it, the green jersey, while Bakelants remains in yellow with his single second lead over everyone else. Despite not yet bagging a stage win, Sagan sits in a strong position in the points competition with two near-wins to Cavendish/Greipel’s combined zero top 20s. All three have managed to keep it close in intermediate sprints.

Now, I’ll look ahead to the next stretch of racing. We’ve moved to the mainland, and kick it off with a team time trial followed by three days before the Pyrenees.

Stage 4: Nice > Nice | 25km | TTT

Stage 4’s team time trial is too flat and too short to see large time gap’s form, so I don’t think it will have too lasting an impact on the overall general classification; however, with 70+ riders sitting a one second back on Jan Bakelants and a number of non-selective stages to come, the highest placed rider on the winning team tomorrow will likely wear the yellow jersey for several days. Stage 1’s craziness shakes up the team time trial. Had some big names, including world’s-greatest-time-trialist, Tony Martin, not taken a hard fall in that mess, I’d consider this a showdown between Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Sky, both of whom bring very strong teams to the Tour. Without Martin (OPQS) or Geraint Thomas (Sky) at full strength, it’s going to be harder to predict; but I’d still take OPQS and Sky over the others. Omega Pharma’s 23-year old Michał Kwiatkowski stands to win yellow if his team can deliver a victory, and if they do, he might even be able to hold it for several days, being a capable climber. Chris Froome, Richie Porte, and Edvald Boasson Hagen will lead a powerful Sky team against them with the possibility of EBH taking yellow if they win. I don’t think I have any surprise names for this one teamwise, as the team time trial is a discipline that favors the strong teams. Other contenders include BMC, Garmin-Sharp, Belkin, Orica-GreenEdge, and Movistar — people seem to underrate Rui Costa and Nairo Quintana as time trialists.

Stage Favorites:

1. Omega Pharma-Quick Step | 2. Sky

Stage 5: Cagnes-sur-Mer > Marseille | 228.5 | Flat

With an early Category 3 climb and then three Cat 4s, it’s no gimme that Cavendish, Greipel, and Kittel will make it to Marseille with the bunch. But the Missile and Gorilla know they have to make up a lot of ground for the green after missing out completely on the sprints at three straight finishes. If they don’t make it, obviously we can expect Sagan, EBH, Goss/Impey/Gerrans, and possibly John Degenkolb (though he failed to make it with the pack in both the second and third stages). However, I think most of the bunch gallopers are going to make it, and this could be Cavendish’s first stage win of the Tour. Hopefully, all three of Cav (probably), Greipel (probably), and Kittel (maybe) make it, so we can get a better idea of how each is doing form-wise in comparison to one another.

Stage Favorites:

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Andre Greipel

Stage 6: Aix-en-Provence > Montpellier | 176.5km | Flat

A single Cat 4 climb stands out on an otherwise pancake-esque route. Barring a crash, it should be a day for the heavy hitter sprinters. GC contenders will try to stay clear of any messes. Peter Sagan will have a good opportunity to see whether his team, built almost completely around providing him with a strong leadout on the flats, can get him in contention here, especially after lackluster team showings on stage 2 and 3.

Stage Favorites:

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Marcel Kittel

Stage 7: Montpellier > Albi | 205.5km | Medium Mountains

The day’s four climbs in order: Cat 3, Cat 2, Cat 3, Cat 4. Unfortunately for the breakaway artists, there are roughly thirty downhill kilometers leading into the finish line, meaning that while a breakaway might survive for a while, it seems likely that the Sagan types in the peloton will charge hard on the descending roads to sweep them up after the flatland sprinters are dropped. On the other hand, with the Pyrenees looming, the GC types might want to hold off, which works in favor of the break. It’s a perfect day for Orica-GreenEdge, a team with a number of riders who are capable of winning in a breakaway AND winning in a reduced sprint, making either scenario favorable for the Australian squad. If I had to make a pick, I’d bet the group comes back together on the descent, pitting Sagan against whomever Orica-GreenEdge is riding behind and other versatile riders with fast finishes, like Francesco Gavazzi (Astana), or Edvald Boasson Hagen or Michał Kwiatkowski if they don’t mind going all out the day before they take to the high mountains. Given the likelihood of strong performances in Stage 4’s TTT from a number of teams who have good sprinter-with-climbing-ability types, one of the riders gunning for this stage win could be sporting the yellow jersey in the blur of the bunch sprint… if they manage to catch the breakaway.

Stage Favorites:

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Francesco Gavazzi

-Dane Cash

Photo by Jean François Bonachera.

July 1, 2013