Tag: Sprint

Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Priego de Córdoba › Ronda – 180 km

After a Stage 4 won convincingly in a bunch sprint by John Degenkolb, Stage 5 of the Vuelta a España looks likely to be another one for the bunch gallopers. The pack will set out from Priego de Córdoba and then take on 150 kilometers without a single categorized climb before reaching the bottom of a lone Category 3. It’s a long uphill ride at 12.5 kilometers, but the average gradient is only a bit over 3%. From the top, it’s about 15 kilometers, mostly on a gentle downhill and without too many twists or turns, to the town of Ronda. The finishing straight is a little over half a kilometer in length, and very subtly uphill.

With a mountain stage looming, the sprinters will hope for one more chance at glory on Stage 5 before things start to get too difficult on the road. Their teams shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping things under control on this profile, and the day’s solitary categorized challenge isn’t particularly steep; it will be hard for anyone to get enough separation on the climb to hold out over a long flat run to the line. That said, it’s likely that some of the heavier sprinters could but put under a bit of pressure if the pace is high going over the Cat. 3; it’s not a legbreaker but riding on an incline for over 10 kilometers in this heat is not a comfortable trip for anyone.

Given the likelihood of a bunch finish, Stage 5 should come down to a high-speed showdown between Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb. With a slight gradient in the final few hundred meters and fewer technical challenges in the run-in than were present on Stage 2 (challenges that might give the tenacious Bouhanni the positioning advantage), this looks like a good opportunity for Degenkolb to challenge the young Frenchman. Degenkolb will need every ounce of power he has, but he blew away the field on Stage 4, showing just how strong he is right now.

Michael Matthews is a fast finisher in any scenario and the very slight incline in the finale could give him an edge here. Astana’s Andrea Guardini had a great run-up to this Vuelta and in a sprinters’ battle royale, he’s a contender. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland is still gaining experience in the positioning game, but he beat both Degenkolb and Bouhanni in this year’s Paris-Nice and he looks strong right now, and Stage 5’s finish should suit him.

Lampre-Merida’s Roberto Ferrari is not one of the more versatile quick men in the pack, but if he can make it over the Cat. 3 without too much trouble, he should be in the mix as well for stage honors. In Maximiliano Richeze and Filippo Pozzato, Lampre does have an impressive squad of supporters or possible alternatives. IAM Cycling has a pair of nice options in Matteo Pelucchi and Stage 4 2nd place finisher Vicente Reynes. The list of other outside contenders for what is likely to be a sprint finish also includes Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, Yauheni Hutarovich, Jasper Stuyven, Jens Debusschere, and Lloyd Mondory.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 5, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

August 26, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Mairena del Alcor › Córdoba – 164.7 km

The third stage of the Vuelta a España saw Michael Matthews outsprinting some real GC talents (among them, Dan Martin and Joaquim Rodriguez) to take a victory and the red jersey. Stage 4 is another in which the presence of some late uphill challenges could make things interesting. The stage starts out very flat, and continues that way for over a hundred kilometers. The first notable topograhic feature of the day, a Category 3 climb, will be crested at around kilometer 110. Then it’s another flat section before a Cat. 2 of about 8 km at an average gradient a little under 5% that kicks off at approximately kilometer 130. From the top there are only about 25 kilometers left on the stage, which will involve a flat section after the climb, a high-speed descent, and then a flat run-in to Córdoba and a very slightly uphill finishing drag.

As was the case on the third stage, there are several versatile fast-finishers here whose teams will be interested in keeping the day’s break in check for a sprint. The Category 2 climb won’t make it easy to control the race, but a concerted effort at organization will have a good chance at keeping any long-range hopefuls from getting too far ahead, especially with a few kilometers of flat before the finish. A group finish seems like a strong possibility, though the field may be reduced by the time the pack passes under the flamme rouge.

Nacer Bouhanni put in a very impressive ride on Stage 3 to finish 8th, ahead of several climbing powerhouses. His performance on the late incline shows considerable improvement in the climbing department, and while it won’t be an easy task to hold on over the Category 2 test on Stage 4, it would be unwise to count Bouhanni out the way he’s riding right now. If he makes it over the top with the pack, or at least close enough behind them to latch back on before the finish, he’ll be the odds-on favorite for the sprint.

While Bouhanni delivered a surprise performance on the third stage, John Degenkolb of Giant-Shimano struggled on the final slope. Bad days are a reality in this sport, though, and the challenges on the menu for Stage 4 look to be of the sort that Degenkolb can typically handle. If he holds on, and if this comes down to a sprint, he has few rivals in this race in terms of top speed.

Red jersey wearer Michael Matthews will hope the injection of uphill pace on the Cat. 2 will drop the purer sprinters. He’s obviously on top form now, and if the group is whittled down even a little, he’ll be a favorite in a reduced bunch.

Peter Sagan would be an obvious candidate for victory, but he does not appear to be interested in contesting stage wins in this race. Oscar Gatto seems to be the Cannondale’s designated rider, and this is a good profile for him.

Belkin’s Moreno Hofland is well-suited to sprints that follow hillier days. Teammate Paul Martens looked strong on Stage 3 as well. Lloyd Mondory is another versatile quick finisher who put in a good result (7th) on the third stage. Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, Daniele Bennati, Jasper Stuyven, Filippo Pozzato, Philippe Gilbert, and Nathan Haas are others with nice finishing kicks who prefer the more difficult days, while Jens Debusschere, Andrea Guardini, Roberto Ferrari, Yauheni Hutarovich, and Matteo Pelucchi will all be among the top contenders if they can survive the bumpy journey to the line.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 4, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

August 25, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Cádiz › Arcos de la Frontera – 197.8 km

After a very flat second stage won, somewhat predictably, by Nacer Bouhanni, the peloton will take on a moderately bumpy Stage 3. The riders will enjoy approximately 80 kilometers of flat roads after they set out from the start (on an aircraft carrier, no less) in Cádiz before taking on a few hills in the middle of the stage. Following the journey up and over a series of Cat. 3 climbs, the riders will begin a long descent. After things flatten out, a short, uncategorized bump must be overcome with roughly 10 km to go, followed by a flat stretch that will last until a little bit after the peloton reaches the 2-km-to-go mark. Then things get interesting. The road kicks upward for most of the remainder of the journey to the line, only flattening out in the last few hundred meters. It’s not a categorized climb, but it’s enough of an incline to give the lighter riders a significant advantage. When the pack hits the slope, those who specialize in these sorts of ascents will drive a furious pace to put pressure on their heavier rivals. Some riders could try to launch their bid for glory early while the gradient is high, while the less able climbers will hope to hold on until things flatten out.

The parcours of Stage 3 should favor the more versatile fast finishers, the riders who are at their best sprinting for victory up a bit of an incline and at the end of a harder day in the saddle. An intermediate profile like this might look breakaway-friendly, but there are plenty of well-rounded quick men on this startlist who will find this stage well-suited to their talents, and their motivation to keep this together for a group finish will be high. A long, late flat section will help with a chase. The first uncategorized bump in the final 20 km might see a few attacks, but it’s not a difficult enough challenge to be a great launchpad, and it will be hard to stay away with another flat stretch to follow. The likeliest outcome here seems to be a group reaching the last uphill drag mostly intact to fight it out over the final two kilometers.

It’s hard to draw up a better profile for Peter Sagan than this. The climbs in the middle of Stage 3 will not be a problem for him, but some of his rivals for a sprint could suffer. Likely arriving relatively fresh at the finish line, he’ll appreciate the last uphill kick at the end of the day; he’s always fast, but his talents should be especially apparent in the fight for position that will occur in the last kilometer when the road is at a bit of a gradient. The Slovakian star doesn’t come without question marks though. He has said that he’s in this Vuelta a España to prepare for the World Championships, and he did a rare turn as a leadout man in Stage 2 rather than chasing victory himself. Stage 3 looks like a golden opportunity but his motivation is uncertain. Oscar Gatto is a decent alternative in place of Sagan should Cannondale decide to go in that direction.

John Degenkolb is another rider with a particular knack for this sort of profile. His top speed rivals Sagan’s, and unlike many other big-name sprinters of that caliber, he doesn’t lose his edge when the road tilts upward. If things hold together for a sprint at the end of Stage 3, Degenkolb will have a great chance at victory, and even if some of the punchier types try to create separation on the late incline, he’s shown before that he is strong enough to latch onto the right wheel to avoid being left behind when the road tilts upward.

Michael Matthews will love this parcours. His only complaint might be that Stage 3 isn’t bumpy enough in the middle of the day to cause more problems for other fast finishers, but either way, he’ll be a top favorite with an uphill stretch just before the line. His climbing legs have been amazing this year.

The final hundred meters may be flat, but the battle to be in front on the last uphill section will be critical for anyone hoping to take this stage, and nobody can charge uphill quite like BMC’s Philippe Gilbert. He will go full gas on the incline section and hope to get enough of an advantage to hold on for the win when things flatten out.

Alejandro Valverde of Movistar is another rider who can rely on his explosiveness to put space between himself and some of the heavier sprinters on the late climb. Katusha’s Daniel Moreno is on strong form for this Vuelta and could try the same, as might his teammates Joaquim Rodriguez and Alexandr Kolobnev.

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara is typically strong in a finish like this, but don’t count out his very impressive 22-year-old teammate Jasper Stuyven, 4th on Stage 2 and capable of handling a few hills. Fabio Felline crashed in the second stage, but normally this finish would suit him too. Filippo Pozzato, Daniel Martin, Moreno Hofland, Anthony Roux, Nathan Haas, Gerald Ciolek, Luis Leon Sanchez, Tom Boonen, and even Cadel Evans are others who could find Stage 3 to their liking. The profile may be a bit bumpy for Nacer Bouhanni, but his team did a great job taking care of him in the finale of the second stage and it’s not out of the question that he makes it to this finish in a good place.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 3, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

August 24, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Algeciras › San Fernando – 174.4 km

With the opening TTT (won by Movistar) now in the rear mirror, the Vuelta a España gets into road racing proper in its second stage. After an early Cat. 3, Stage 2 offers over 160 kilometers of racing without a single categorized climb. It’s hard to see anything other than a sprint decided this stage, though a few factors could add some excitement to the day. For one, this route runs along coastal roads susceptible to high winds. The first road stage of a Grand Tour is always nervous enough as it is, and things will be all the more stressful if the winds pick up.

What’s more, the finale is a tricky one, with a succession of hard turns (right, left, right, and right again into the finishing straight) inside the last kilometer and a half. A technical sprint run-in on the first mass start day of the race could be a recipe for crashes, and the GC men will have their fingers crossed that they can simply make it to the Stage 2 finish line unscathed.

The fastest of the fast men will be the favorites here. Giro Points Classification winner Nacer Bouhanni has elite top-end speed and would be dangerous enough in a drag race on a long straightaway, but he really shines in a hectic finale like this. His ability to position himself perfectly even without a great leadout, combined with some amazing acceleration, puts him at the top of the list of contenders.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is another rider who is quite capable in a technical finish. His versatility shouldn’t take away from the fact that he’s one of the best sprinters in the field. Coming into the race, form and motivation were both question marks; it’s unclear what he is hoping to get out of this Vuelta, which he is using to prepare for the World Championships. However, after Cannondale’s strong TTT, a top result on Stage 2 could put him into the leader’s jersey, and that should drive him to go for this. He has the ability to win this stage.

Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb shouldn’t lack for motivation to hunt a victory here. He has looked sharp in sprint finishes this year, but was unable to pick up a victory in the Tour de France. With a top-notch leadout to guide him through the last few kilometers, he should be in the mix.

Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge had a terrific Vuelta in 2013, taking two stage victories. Known for his versatile skillset, he is also just plain fast, and even on a flat course he’s a contender.

Astana’s Andrea Guardini has been on fire this month, winning twice in Denmark and then picking up a WorldTour victory in the Eneco Tour. He will have another opportunity here on Stage 2 of the Vuelta. Lampre can choose between the speedy Maximiliano Richeze and Roberto Ferrari. OPQS has Tom Boonen, who becomes even more dangerous on a windy day when his team’s classics prowess can be put to good use. The longlist of others who should be in the mix includes AG2R’s Yauheni Hutarovich, Belkin’s Moreno Hofland, Garmin-Sharp’s Nathan Haas, IAM Cycling’s Matteo Pelucchi, Lotto Belisol’s Jens Debusschere, MTN Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, and even BMC’s Philippe Gilbert.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Peter Sagan

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 2, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

August 23, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Évry › Paris – 137.5 km

With the time trial done and dusted (and won, unsurprisingly, by Tony Martin), only the Champs-Élysées finale remains in the 2014 Tour de France. Just 137.5 kilometers in length and quite flat, Stage 21 starts out in parade-like fashion, with champagne toasts and photo opportunities, and the pace remains pleasant until the peloton reaches Paris, when things start to speed up as the riders enter a 7 kilometer finishing circuit and begin an eight-lap journey to the end of the Tour de France. A few aggressive riders will attempt to break away from the pack on the circuit, but as the eighth lap and the final crossing of the line on the Champs-Élysées get closer and closer, the sprint teams will ramp up the pace, making it virtually impossible to stay away. Victory in the final stage of the Tour de France is one of the most prestigious prizes in the sport, and it’s rare that anything stands in the way of a sprinters’ battle royale on the Champs-Élysées.

Marcel Kittel of Giant-Shimano won the Champs-Élysées finale of last year’s race, and he is in the hunt for his fourth stage win at this year’s Tour de France. All three of his victories so far came very early in the race, as he did struggle a bit on some of the tougher stages after the first week, but Stage 21 doesn’t have the sort of profile that is likely to take much out of the massive German sprinter. Kittel has established himself as a dominant force in tests of pure speed, and he will be the rider to beat on the Champs-Élysées.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel does have a stage win under his belt in this year’s Tour, but he will be hungry for another here. In a drag race, few can match Marcel Kittel, but Greipel is probably the rider with the best chance of doing so. He has not done the best job of positioning himself in the many sprint stages of this race so far, but he has a strong support train and this is not a stage with too many obstacles for the powerhouse fast men to overcome on their way to the final few hundred meters. If he can nail the run-in, Greipel can challenge for victory on Stage 21.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff typically prefers fast finishes that follow hard days in the saddle, but he’s also got plenty of pure sprinting ability. He’s looked particularly strong in this race, benefitting from a team that is more focused on his success than they usually are. 6th on the final stage of the 2013 edition of the Tour, he could contend for the win on the Champs-Élysées this year.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will have one last chance at a stage victory in the 2014 Tour de France here in Paris. He doesn’t have the top speed of Marcel Kittel, but he was runner-up to Mark Cavendish in the final stage of the 2012 Tour, and given his talent and tendency to position himself well for the charge to the line, he can never be counted out.

OPQS’s Mark Renshaw knows how to deliver a result on the Champs-Élysées, even though in the past his biggest successes have been all about providing an excellent leadout to someone else. This year, he’ll have a rare chance to be the featured rider on the final stage of the Tour, and he’s shown impressive speed in this race so far. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare has struggled to make it to the finish with the lead group in many of the sprint days in this race, but the journey to the line is quite short on this stage. If he’s there in the final few hundred meters, he could be in the mix. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has racked up quite a few Top 10s so far in the Tour, and as a star of the track, he’ll enjoy the chance for a drag race to the line.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, OGE’s Michael Albasini, and AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin are outsiders who could land strong results on Stage 21, while Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb will be ready to step up for his team as a quality alternative should anything happen to Marcel Kittel.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2014 Tour de France. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of racing, and I have particularly enjoyed hearing from those of you who have reached out to talk racing, to ask for an opinion on your favorite long shot, or just to say hello! I hope you’ll continue to stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the brand new VeloHuman Facebook page.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be reaching its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 26, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Maubourguet Pays du Val d’Adour › Bergerac – 208.5 km

Vincenzo Nibali closed out the final high mountain stage of the Tour de France with his fourth stage win, and now the peloton heads to flatter roads. At first glance, Stage 19 looks certain to be one for the sprinting heavyweights, with a mostly flat profile from start to finish. However, there could be a few complicating factors. For one, 208.5 kilometers of racing is no walk in the park. A long day, especially after some very intense climbing, could lead to some pained legs. At the end of this lengthy journey, the peloton must get over a few uncategorized bumps and then a Category 4 climb that comes about 13 km from the finish. It’s short at only 1.3 kilometers, but steep, with an average gradient of 7.6%. And, while the last few kilometers are flat, there are some twists and turns approaching the finish line. On top of these challenges, there is a chance of rain in the forecast, which always adds an element of uncertainty to the equation.

On this profile, the sprinters’ teams should be able to control the race on Stage 19, and with a bunch gallop the likeliest outcome, Marcel Kittel, the fastest fast man in the Tour, has to be a top favorite. Giant-Shimano came here to win on the flats, and the entire team will be working to put Kittel in position to win a sprint finale. In a straight-up drag race, he’s pretty much unbeatable. As we saw on Stage 15, however, a combination of factors like distance and weather can take its toll on the heavy German. The Cat. 4 comes far enough from the finish that it shouldn’t cause too many problems for Kittel, but if the teams of the more versatile sprinters set a hard pace over the ascent and drive it all the way to the tricky final few kilometers, it’s possible that Kittel could have trouble getting into position for the charge to the line. GSH has a great backup plan in John Degenkolb, who has looked sharp in the past few sprint stages, and who is less likely to be troubled by the bumps in the road.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel is a bit more capable of coping with the harder days than Marcel Kittel, and at his best, he has a finishing kick few can match. Still, his endurance will be put to the test if teams like Cannondale and Katusha decide to go full gas as the day nears its conclusion. Greipel does have the support of a strong leadout, which will be crucial for the technical run-in to the line.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff took a strong second victory on Stage 15, which, though it was bit longer, shared similarities with this stage, a lengthy journey coming after some tough days in the mountains. Kristoff thrives in nasty weather, and his pair of wins in this Tour have put his impressive top speed on display. Stage 19 will be a good opportunity for him to pick up a third victory.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan has come so close so many times in this Tour de France, but he has yet to pick up the win he’s been hunting. The likely sprint finale on the Champs-Élysées, which will come at the end of a much easier day in the saddle, will be less favorable to Sagan; this is the better opportunity to get that victory. Like Kristoff, he’ll hope for the hardest race possible. He is very adept at navigating challenging corners, and that gives him an edge in the final few kilometers of the race.

Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Albasini, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare are other fast men with the potential to get involved. Mark Renshaw has placed well in the sprints so far, though OPQS could favor the chances of Matteo Trentin here; it’s also possible they’ll try to send Jan Bakelants, Michal Kwiatkowski, Niki Terpstra, or Tony Martin up the road and hope the tricky finale makes for a difficult chase. After so many tough mountains stages and with a crucial time trial on the menu for the GC men, it’s not completely out of the question that a well-planned move might be able to hold out here on Stage 19. Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, Tommy Voeckler, Jens Keukeleire, and Sylvain Chavanel are other strong riders who might have this sort of tactic in mind.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

There are only a few stages left in the 2014 Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of every one of them. Also check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 19.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 24, 2014