Tag: Sprint

Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Giovinazzo > Bari – 112 km

As expected, Stage 3 ended in a bunch sprint. Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen delivered an excellent leadout to teammate Ben Swift, and Cannondale’s Elia Viviani did his best to match Swift’s acceleration in the final straight, but Marcel Kittel came up along the side of the road and blew past everyone at the last moment. With a hundred kilometers to go he was several bike lengths behind Swift, EBH, and Viviani, but no head start could keep him from powering to victory. If it wasn’t clear enough already, Kittel showed on Stage 3 that he is miles ahead of the other sprinters in this race.

The Giro d’Italia moves into Italy for Stage 4. The peloton sets out from coastal Giovinazzo and takes a circuitous route that eventually winds southeast towards the town of Bari. After around 45 kilometers on the road, they’ll reach their destination, where they will kick off eight laps of 8.3 kilometers around the town. That makes for a grand total of just 112 kilometers. The very short day on the bike will be an extremely pacey affair. A technical circuit with some wicked twists and turns in the last two kilometers will make it crucial to be in good position before the final moments of the race. However, there isn’t anything even resembling a categorized climb on the menu; the country may have changed, but it looks almost guaranteed that the riders fighting for those final corners will again be the same sprinters we’ve seen at the fore for the last few days.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I’ll point out that Marcel Kittel is again the huge favorite to take a sprint finish. He proved Sunday that he’s just too fast right now even when caught well out of position in the bunch gallop. I don’t think it’s likely that his rivals will get that kind of opportunity again. This finish is not completely suited to his skillset, as late turns will not allow power guys like Kittel to make full use of their top speed, but I’m not sure that will matter for the points jersey wearer. Luka Mezgec remains the strong second option for Giant-Shimano.
UPDATE: Marcel Kittel has abandoned the race due to a fever. His absence will give some of the other riders we’ve seen at the front the opportunity to contend for the win instead of runner-up honors. Luka Mezgec becomes the go-to rider for GSH, and a strong option at that.

Nacer Bouhanni and Elia Viviani are again my two favorites to take on Kittel. This technical circuit suits Bouhanni very well: he’s very aggressive in a fight for position and isn’t afraid to take risks on the corners. That will be of paramount importance in the Stage 4 finale. If he can force his way into position for the last bends in the road, he has a shot at making the quick acceleration to the line in the final straight. Cannondale’s Viviani might be a bit more favored on a course ending with a longer drag, but he’s fast enough right now that he is still a top contender here. Cannondale continues to get to the front early; such a decision will make a little more sense on Stage 4, and if they can improve their timing just a bit they’ll be able to set him up nicely.

Sky’s Ben Swift was so close to victory in Stage 3, and his performance their suggests that he really can duke it out with the fastest guys here. Having such an elite leadout man in Edvald Boasson Hagen helps. With EBH to guide him on Stage 4, Swift is again a contender, especially with a very slightly uphill finish. I’m also not going to rule Sky flipping the script and backing Boasson Hagen one of these days. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo also has a very fast leadout (Danilo Hondo and Boy van Poppel), and he won’t mind a tiny incline either. His biggest challenge lately (and not just in this race) has been positioning. I’m interested to see what he can do when he actually gets himself into the perfect spot to launch his move, because in recent contests he has so often been just a little out of place in the final moments.

Maglia Rosa wearer Michael Matthews hasn’t been able to land in the Top 5 of a sprint just yet but a shorter finishing straight could suit him better. Alessandro Petacchi looked a bit more interested in Stage 3 than he was in Stage 2; he’s actually sitting 2nd in the GC right now, so maybe he’ll try for the victory and the bonus seconds in attempt to wear pink on Stage 5. AG2R’s Davide Appollonio outclassed some bigger names on Stage 3 and will look to do so again, though he’s somewhat disadvantaged by a lesser leadout. Same goes for Roberto Ferrari. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar, Neri Sottoli’s Francesco Chicchi, Androni Giacattoli’s Manuel Belletti, Bardiani’s Nicola Ruffoni, Europcar’s Tony Hurel, and Belkin’s Jetse Bol are other likely protagonists.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Elia Viviani
UPDATE: With Kittel out, Bouhanni slides into the driver’s seat of VH favorite with Viviani very close behind. I’ll name Giacomo Nizzolo as 3rd favorite.

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! You’ll also see plenty of tweets about the Tour of California, which kicked off with an exciting opening stage on Sunday and continues today with an important individual time trial. I am not doing previews for California, but if you’re looking for picks you’ll find them on Twitter.

The preview of Giro d’Italia Stage 5 will be up not long after the Stage 4 finish. If you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

May 12, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Armagh > Dublin – 187 km

The rain continued on Stage 2 but the sprinters were not deterred. A small cast of breakers including Maarten Tjallingii did a great job to stay out front till the very end, but the peloton reeled them in in the last few minutes. Cannondale and Trek took the front, and then Giant-Shimano took over, looking perfectly positioned for a Kittel leadout in the last kilometer. Orica-GreenEdge came around them late, but Marcel Kittel was unfazed. After the final turn, he sprinted up the left side of the road and no one could match his engine. He nabbed his first Giro stage win rather handily, with Bouhanni, Nizzolo, and Viviani behind. In 8th place on the day, Michael Matthews moved ahead of teammate Svein Tuft just slightly in the GC and will wear the pink jersey tomorrow. Ultimately, Stage 2 was a wet, nervous day, but the final results were unsurprising, with most of the expected names featuring in the sprint.

Stage 3 takes the Giro d’Italia into the Republic of Ireland, kicking off in Armagh but finishing in Dublin. It’s got a few early bumps (two Cat. 4 climbs) but once the race leaves Northern Ireland the road flattens out a fair bit. Without any major tests on the profile, the weather, potentially very windy and rainy, will offer the biggest challenge to the riders.

Conditions could make things unpredictable, but the bunch was generally able to avoid trouble on Stage 2 and will hopefully manage to stay clear of danger on the final day of racing outside of Italy. A bunch sprint is again likely, and with even fewer lumps and fewer overall kilometers, Marcel Kittel may be an even bigger favorite. The way he was able to dominate today’s finish inspires confidence in his chances of repeating. There is a sharp bend at about the kilometer-to-go point, but after that it’s a pretty clear run to the finish line, and it’s hard to see many challengers taking on the big German in the final drag. As usual, should he falter early in the day, Luka Mezgec becomes Giant’s go-to guy.

Unsurprisingly, and probably unexcitingly, the riders placing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on the first sprint stage will be my 2nd, 3rd, and 4th favorites for Stage 3. Nacer Bouhanni showed that he’s in great shape on his way to runner-up honors. He’s a powerful sprinter who will like the look of Stage 3. Giacomo Nizzolo appears strong and fully recovered from his early season injury, and his leadout is also very quick. As a note, his Stage 2 result bodes well for later in the Giro: I think he and Viviani are more likely to hang on through tough mountain stages than Kittel and Bouhanni, which could set up a few showdowns between the Italian fast men if/when their rivals abandon the race. Speaking of Elia Viviani, his Cannondale squad probably did a little too much work a little too early for today’s finish, and he still managed to come through for 4th, so look for him again tomorrow.

Michael Matthews will wear pink on the road to Dublin but I found his 8th place a bit underwhelming given his ability and his leadout’s excellent position. I don’t think he loves racing in the rain. We’ll see if he can improve his position tomorrow. Roberto Ferrari‘s performance was the opposite—impressive given recent results (or lack thereof) and Lampre’s unimpressive leadout. Another flat day of sprinting, shorter than today’s, will be appetizing for the 31-year-old. Sky’s Ben Swift continues to show just how strong he is right now, mixing it up with the very best in the race. Like Matthews, he’ll look to place as highly as possible on these days to prepare for later stages in which the small number of faster riders might be out of contention. He seems to be Sky’s go-to guy for the sprints ahead of the also fast Edvald Boasson Hagen. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar is another rider who will be in the mix tomorrow. Alessandro Petacchi, meanwhile, seemed content riding purely in a support role for Stage 2. With another windy day on tap, the OPQS rider might make a nice outside challenger, but he didn’t even contend today and might not for Stage 3 either.

Two of the three real outsiders I named in the Stage 2 preview finished in the top 10 (Manuel Belletti, 6th, and Davide Appollonio 9th). The third, Francesco Chicchi, came back from a very late mechanical to finish 12th, which is pretty impressive, though he did have a bit of team car assistance. They’ll be outsiders again for Stage 3, along with the likes of Bardiani’s Nicola Ruffoni, Belkin’s Jetse Bol and Movistar’s Fran Ventoso.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! The peloton gets a rest day after the Dublin finish. Keep an eye out for the preview of Stage 4, which kicks off in Giovinazzo on Tuesday. If you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

May 10, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Belfast > Belfast – 219 km

Heavy favorites Orica-GreenEdge probably didn’t need much help on Day 1, but they got it anyway, starting early enough to avoid some pouring rain. Their time withstood spirited efforts from Team BMC and Omega Pharma-Quick Step, putting Svein Tuft into the pink jersey for Stage 2. Movistar turned in a disappointing performance in the wet weather that left Nairo Quintana almost a minute back on rivals Rigoberto Uran and Cadel Evans. Uran and Evans have even bigger gap (about a minute and a half) on Joaquim Rodriguez, whose Katusha squad had a rough day. But by far the biggest story of Stage 1 was the nasty crash that took down Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin and three other riders. Martin lost control on what appeared to be a rainslicked manhole cover, and went down very hard, breaking his collarbone and ultimately abandoning the race. After a heartbreaking crash ended his hope of winning Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Martin’s fortunes in 2014 have turned even worse. The would-be GC contender (and member of the VH pre-race Top 10) saw the biggest goal of his season slip away in the blink of an eye. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal was not one of those who crashed, but the squad had already dropped one of their members earlier in the course, and as team time trials are judged according to the performance of the fifth best rider, Hesjedal and the others who survived the incident were forced to stop and wait for Fabian Wegmann to catch back up and bring their number to five before they could continue. Rolling across the line in last place and almost three and a half minutes down, Hesjedal’s GC hopes are already dashed as well.

After an eventful opening chrono, road racing begins in earnest Saturday morning. Stage 2 also begins and ends in Belfast. It’s a 219 kilometer loop with only a pair of Category 4 climbs to challenge the peloton. The profile won’t provide many opportunities for riders to get away, and this early in the race, GC teams will look to marshal breakaways quickly. However, the first sprint stage of a Grand Tour is always a hectic affair, and the jockeying for position will be aggressive. Furthermore, it could rain, and winds will be high on the coastal roads. Today’s conditions proved perilous, and not just for Garmin; no one else got into any serious incidents but a number of other teams had riders slipping and sliding around the corners. With a high intensity sprint stage on tap for tomorrow, things could get hairy. It will no doubt be a nervous journey from start to finish.

Should everyone manage to stay upright, this stage is very likely to end in a bunch sprint. Without many obstacles to slow him down, Marcel Kittel is the heavy favorite. Kittel was the best sprinter at last year’s Tour de France; in this Giro, without either of the sport’s other two top fast men, the gap to the next best sprinter is significant. He also benefits from a team completely committed to his cause—and GSH knows how to set their sprinters up for victory. In the event that Kittel does somehow get dropped before the final kilometers, Luka Mezgec is an attractive second option, on nice form this year.

The two men with the best chance to take on the GSH juggernaut will be Cannondale’s Elia Viviani and FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni. Viviani is coming off a Tour of Turkey in which he beat Mark Cavendish in two stages, so it will be interesting to see him matched up against another of the top finishers in the game. Bouhanni has already collected several wins this season, but most of them have come against lower level fields. We’ll see how he does against Grand Tour competition.

Michael Matthews will hope to be the next pink jersey wearer for Orica-GreenEdge. Prognosticators often focus on his versatility, but don’t forget that he really does have the top end speed to be in the mix on a sprint stage. The also versatile Ben Swift of Team Sky looks very sharp this year. On the other hand, it’s always a possibility that Sky will go with Edvald Boasson Hagen, also speedy. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo seems to be back on form after his collarbone injury, and he has a nice team around him as well. Alessandro Petacchi rides for an OPQS outfit that knows how to handle the crosswinds. Should the conditions shake up the state of affairs on the stage, Petacchi could be a dangerous contender, and coming off a strong TTT, there is a slight chance that he could find himself in the pink jersey if he is among those benefitting from bonus seconds on the day. Garmin-Sharp will be shifting their focus to stage wins now that Martin and Hesjedal are out of contention for the pink: Tyler Farrar looks much improved this season.

Unless the rough conditions cause some sort of major shakeup, it’s hard to see anyone beating Kittel on the day, and really hard to see anyone other than the above names pulling off that surprise, but for further outsiders, look to AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, Neri Sottoli’s Francesco Chicchi, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Manuel Belletti.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Elia Viviani | 3. Nacer Bouhanni

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! The preview of Stage 3 will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 2, so stay tuned. If you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

May 9, 2014