Tag: Stage 1

Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Ourense › Parque Nacional Castrelo de Miño – 27.8km (TTT)

The Vuelta kicks off with a team time trial, and a surprisingly unpredictable one at that. Though there are several good TT teams in the race, none of them looks particularly dominant, leaving this battle against the clock open for the taking.

There are several corners to navigate on the parcours, but the 27.8km route is a flat one that will favor the big engines.

Team Sky is my prohibitive favorite, with the talent and the motivation to come out of this with an early advantage. Led by Chris Froome and Michal Kwiatkowski, Sky has a good – if not great – squad in Spain.

Movistar should perform well for similar reasons; they too have motivation and big engines, though a number of their strongest riders against the clock aren’t making the start. Still, they should be right up there in contention.

Etixx-QuickStep has a number of Classics riders on the roster who should be able to turn a high cadence for a half hour. That makes them dangerous. BMC is another contender, always strong against the clock, though their Vuelta lineup is not exactly the TTT world champion squad.

LottoNL-Jumbo is a great candidate to surprise. The Dutch squad doesn’t have quiet the reputation of the some of the other TTT contenders, but with Jos van Emden leading the way, the squad has a nice shot to nab the stage.

VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites

1. Team Sky | 2. Movistar | 3. Etixx-QuickStep

August 20, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Mont-Saint-Michel › Utah Beach Sainte-Marie-du-Mont – 188km

The Tour’s opening stage should be one for the sprinter’s, with coastal crosswinds looking like the only potential obstacle standing in the way of the speedsters. The profile itself is quite flat, tailormade for a bunch kick, but windy conditions could force splits in the pack. Even if that does happen, however, I still expect a sprint to close out this stage, with the wind mostly serving to thin the list of contenders.

Marcel Kittel stands atop that list. He may have had a rough 2015 Tour, but he’s been terrific this season, leading me to believe he’s back to the level that saw him dominate the sprints the two years prior. He also rides for Etixx now, and if there’s one team likely to make something happen in the wind, it’s the Belgian super-squad.

Kittel’s top challengers should be, of course, André Greipel and Mark Cavendish. I’d probably rank Cavendish slightly ahead of Greipel because I see the Manxman as having better pure speed in peak form—but he hasn’t shown it off in high-level races yet this season. As such, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to me if he were a bit off the mark.

Behind those big three, expect Peter Sagan, Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, John Degenkolb, and Bryan Coquard to be fighting for the surprise win. But unless there a big split in the crosswinds, I have a hard time seeing any of them taking the day.

VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel

July 2, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Apeldoorn › Apeldoorn – 9.8km (ITT)

The 2016 Giro d’Italia opens in the Netherlands with a short, flat time trial. Without any climbs to speak of and good weather in the forecast, the corners will be the only real challenge on the day. Expect the specialists to shine here in the first battle for the pink jersey. In particular, those with top-end speed will like their chances.

Fabian Cancellara and Tom Dumoulin are the two big favorites here, though Cancellara apparently has the flu, which could make this Dumoulin’s to lose. He won’t have many opportunities like this to take a Giro stage win in his home country, and this TT suits him well.

Jos Van Emden is another home rider with a chance. He’s been a bit quiet since his second-place ride in the Tour of Qatar’s stage 2 TT, but he showed at last year’s Eneco Tour TT just how good he can be when things go his way. Bob Jungels, Anton Vorobyev, Mathias Brandle, Jack Bobridge, and Ramunas Narvadauskas are others who could be in the mix.

Keep an eye on Mikel Landa and Esteban Chaves on the day. The time trial mileage in this Giro could be the biggest challenge for both riders, and Stage 1 will be a good opportunity to get an idea of where they are in terms of form against the clock right now before the more critical Stage 9 ITT.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Jos Van Emden.

Be sure to check out my overall race preview over at VeloNews, and don’t miss the Recon Ride’s pre-race show! Giacomo Nizzolo and Jakob Fuglsang both make an appearance in the podcast.

May 6, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Puerto Banús › Marbella – 7.4km (TTT)

The 2015 Vuelta a España will get underway with one of the whackiest stages in race history thanks to an absurd course design and a last-minute UCI decision.

An opening team time trial of just 7.4 pancake-flat kilometers is odd enough, too short to really have any GC impact whatsoever, but the route includes a few unique challenges. Running along the vacationer-friendly Mediterranean coast from Puerto Banús to Marbella, the course involves stretches of packed dirt and sand and a narrow wooden bridge. Those peculiar obstacles caused plenty of consternation to riders putting in some course recon this week, spurring the UCI to call a meeting that ultimately deemed the TTT parcours too dangerous to count towards the General Classifiation. And so, just one day before the start of the Vuelta, the decision has been made to neutralize the opening stage in terms of the GC, leaving only a stage win and position in the team classification up for grabs.

Obviously, that dramatically changes the prediction picture, as any teams with GC aspirations now have little motivation to take any risks on the absurd course. A few of the top overall contenders lead strong TTT squads, but it’s hard to see them putting in the effort to contend for a stage win on the sand.

Instead, this should come down to the teams without GC candidates on the roster. Trek Factory Racing is among the front-runners. Fabian Cancellara leads a squad packed with fast finishers, and over a course of just 7.4km, sprinter speed will come in handy. Without a top GC favorite to shepherd over the whacky parcours, Trek will be hard to beat.

Giant-Alpecin should thrive for the same reasons as Trek—time trialing star Tom Dumoulin will lead the squad, with high-octane John Degenkolb and Luka Mezgec providing firepower over the very short course.

Orica-GreenEdge may have a shot, with a few time trialing specialists and a few fast finishers making the start. OGE always outperforms the sum of its parts in team time trials, and the team has nothing to lose in this race.

Etixx-QuickStep doesn’t have many of its top talents against the clock making the start, but Niki Terpstra leads a team that does include a few decent TT men and no reason to take the course gingerly.

Tinkoff-Saxo has a collection of speedsters and big engines to put up a good ride if Rafal Majka’s GC aspirations don’t hold them back. Sky has the firepower to put in a challenge for the TTT victory, but it seems almost guaranteed that the British squad will ride this one without much urgency as Chris Froome is a contender for the overall Vuelta a España victory. The same goes for BMC and Movistar, who might otherwise have contended for the stage, but who will now likely keep the powder dry for a day with real GC implications.

VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites

1. Trek Factory Racing | 2. Giant-Alpecin | 3. Orica-GreenEdge

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for 2015 Vuelta analysis. The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 1. And if you haven’t already checked out the Recon Ride’s first of three Vuelta episodes, there’s no time like the present to start listening!

August 21, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1 (ITT): Utrecht > Utrecht – 13.8km

The Tour de France gets underway with a flat 13.8-kilometer time trial in Utrecht. It’s a little longer than a traditional prologue, but still short enough that those riders with a bit of pop could enjoy a chance to churn out a very high tempo for the duration of the trip along the course. There are no hills to speak of, though there are several corners that will require some deft bike handling.

Tony Martin is the best pure time trialing talent in the race, and an excellent bike handler. He’d probably prefer something a bit longer to put his big engine on display, but this is still a good course for him. It’s probably safe to assume that Martin has had his eye on the yellow jersey since the Stage 1 was announced, and when Martin focuses his full attention on a time trial, it’s almost impossible to beat him.

Tom Dumoulin will have a chance. His explosiveness should translate favorably on this shorter parcours, and he is, of course, riding in front of a home crowd. He’s had trouble beating Martin head-to-head in the past, but this is an ideal scenario for him to overcome those difficulties.

Fabian Cancellara also has a good shot here on Stage 1. The terrain suits him and he looked strong in the Tour de Suisse time trials. The veteran Classics star knows how to handle pressure and in the spotlight of the Tour’s busy first stage, he should shine.

The stage winner will very likely come from the aforementioned trio of favorites, but there are a few outsiders who could contend . Adriano Malori has been knocking at the door of the elite time trialing club for a little while now. Short courses tend to suit him. Watch out for the Italian Movistar rider. Michal Kwiatkowski, Geraint Thomas, Rohan Dennis, Alex Dowsett, Peter Sagan, and Greg Van Avermaet are others with a chance at Stage 1 success and the yellow jersey on offer as well.

VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Tom Dumoulin | 3. Fabian Cancellara

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 1. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 3, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1 (TTT): San Lorenzo Mare › Sanremo – 17.6km

The 98th Giro d’Italia gets underway with a 17.6-kilometer team time trial. It’s a short, flat affair from Point A to Point B, but there are some tight corners along the way. Huge gaps are unlikely but the good TTT squads should be able to pick up a bit of time on the weaker teams here.

Most of the powerhouse names in time trialing are skipping the Giro this year, but the always strong Orica-GreenEdge TTT squad was never built off of one big name anyway. They get it done with consistent strength from top to bottom, good teamwork, and grade-A preparation. With most of the same riders that very nearly won the Tour de Romandie TTT, they will be the favorites to take Stage 1.

Team Sky beat them in Romandie but that team consisted of different riders; the black and blue squad will still have plenty of chrono firepower here, but will it be enough without Froome, Thomas, and Rowe? Motivated as they’ll be to put Porte into a good position for this race, expect a strong ride.

The GC aspirations of Joaquim Rodríguez have often been put at a serious disadvantage by Katusha’s poor team time trialing performances, but the Russian squad has found new life in this discipline thanks to chrono talents like Anton Vorobyev. They’ll be in the mix here. Etixx-QuickStep, on the other hand, has a reputation for TTT dominance, but the majority of their specialists aren’t making the trip to Italy.

Tinkoff-Saxo isn’t bringing too many big TT stars either, but a strong ride in support of Alberto Contador should be in the cards given the amount of general talent on the roster.

VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites

1. Orica-GreenEdge | 2. Team Sky | 3. Katusha

Be sure to check back after the conclusion of Stage 1 for the preview of the next stage…

-Dane Cash

May 8, 2015