Tag: Stage 1

Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Calella › Calella – 185.2 km

With a roadside presence at the race, VeloHuman will be previewing individual stages of the 2015 Volta a Catalunya in addition to the overall race preview published earlier. Calella again hosts the opening stage of the race this year. The parcours resembles that of last year’s edition in many ways.

The stage opens with mostly flat roads for the first 80 kilometers, but the road turns upward near the midpoint of the day’s racing. The peloton will first take on the long Category 2 Alt de Viladrau (11.3 km, 3.3% average gradient) and then the Cat. 1 Alt del Coll Formic (7.8 km, 5.2% average gradient), before a long descent back towards the coast. The Cat. 3 Alt de Collsacreu (7.4 km, 3% average gradient) is the final climbing challenge of the stage, crested 18 kilometers before the line. The final few kilometers are mostly flat and not particularly technical.

Last year’s opening stage involved many of the same roads and similar climbs, and included the same ascent of the Collsacreu followed by a descent into Calella. That stage ended with a sprint finish. A repeat seems likely in 2015, though a reduction in the cast of characters likely to play a role in a bunch kick would also fall within the realm of expectation. These climbs probably won’t spring successful attackers, especially not on the first day of the Volta; though the Col Formic is a Cat. 1 challenge, categorizations are a bit deceiving in this race. Still, some of the heavier sprinters could fall out of contention on the slopes.

The diminutive Bryan Coquard has shown an ability to handle some climbing in the past, and he’s come close to a few wins already this year. Coming close to victory when racing at the WorldTour level is a common theme for Coquard, but with this startlist, he has a great chance of finally picking up a WorldTour win.

Caleb Ewan can handle some climbing and he looks to be on fine form after picking up two wins in the Tour de Langkawi. He’ll also have a good chance of picking up his first WorldTour win here.

Luka Mezgec won three stages last year (including the Calella opener of that edition) and seems like a good bet for more success in 2015 after already picking up a victory in the Tour du Haut Var-matin. The climbs will challenge him but if he can make it to the finish, he’ll be well-positioned to win. Matteo Pelucchi is in a similar boat: he’s had a lot of success so far this season and has a powerful finishing kick. If the climbs don’t take too much out of him he’s likely to contend for the win.

JJ Rojas is quite versatile for a fast finisher, and he has already taken a (rare) win this year. If some of the stronger sprinters are shed on the climbs, he’ll be one to watch. Julian Alaphilippe, Jasper Stuyven, Roberto Ferrari, Kévin Reza, and Julien Simon are other outside contenders with a chance. If a few of the GC names get aggressive on the climbs and manage to break up the race, look to Alejandro Valverde and Rigoberto Urán in a reduced sprint.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Bryan Coquard | 2. Luka Mezgec | 3. Caleb Ewan

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 1 for the preview of Stage 2.

-Dane Cash

March 22, 2015
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1 (TTT): Jerez de la Frontera › Jerez de la Frontera – 12.6 km

The 2014 Vuelta a España gets underway with a short, flat team time trial in Jerez de la Frontera. At only 12.6 kilometers, the route shouldn’t see any massive time gaps between teams, but motivation to put in a strong ride will still be high; in this Vuelta, which seems likely to be hotly contested, every second will count, and the GC riders will want to get off to a strong start. Moreover, several teams are packing some serious chrono talent and will have their sights set on showing off their ability against the clock in the opening stage of the race.

One such team looks to be the top favorite for this TTT. Fabian Cancellara headlines a powerful Trek squad loaded with talent that also includes Jesse Sergeant, Kristof Vandewalle, and Bob Jungels. That’s a lot of firepower. They’re a little light on cumulative experience with so much youth in the team, but this is a goal for Trek and they have the talent to go for the win.

OPQS should contend for stage victory as well. They will be led by World Champ Tony Martin and the team will be driven to put Rigoberto Uran, suddenly a top-notch chrono rider in his own right, into a good position on GC.

Sky has a number of workhorse time trialists to help place Chris Froome (obviously a stellar time trialist himself) into a good spot on the leaderboard on the first stage, and it would be a surprise to see anything other than a great performance from them on Stage 1.

BMC and Movistar are also well-staffed for a race against the clock and could be in the mix for stage honors. Orica-GreenEdge is without a number of their stronger time trialists in this Vuelta, but Brett Lancaster, Cam Meyer, and Michael Matthews (very fast in a short time trial) should give them a shot at a good result.

While they aren’t on the same level as Trek, Giant-Shimano could surprise some people on Stage 1. They have several young chrono talents in Lawson Craddock, Chad Haga, and Tobias Ludvigsson that will be able to drive a high pace on the stage. Cannondale is another team that could outperform expectations; a shorter time trial like this suits a number of their riders.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Trek Factory Racing | 2. Omega Pharma – Quick-Step | 3. Team Sky

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 1, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

August 22, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Leeds › Harrogate – 190.5 km

The long wait for the Grand Départ of the 2014 Tour de France is over, and that means it’s time for the Stage 1 Preview as well! In case you missed the overall race preview, you can find it here. As a note: I’ll be previewing every stage of the race, all the way to the Champs-Élysées, so you can check back every day for stage profiles and picks. You can also follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis during the race.

The opening stage of the 101st Tour is a mostly flat trip through Yorkshire. The peloton will take on a Category 4 climb and then a pair of Cat. 3s in the middle of the stage, but the bumps in the road aren’t likely to trouble anyone. 50 kilometers of generally flat roads lead into the finish, practically guaranteeing that this will be a stage for the sprinters. There is a roundabout with around 2 kilometers to go, but after that it’s a pretty straight shot to the line, meaning that the fast men will be truly flying in the final few moments. Though the high speed run-in to the finish will make it hard to tell that the riders are on a slope, the road does kick uphill a bit over the last kilometer.

The Tour de France quite often starts with a time trial, essentially denying the sprinters any opportunity to wear the yellow jersey during the race, but when things kick off with a mass-start road stage instead, the competition for a day in the sport’s most recognizable piece of clothing is fierce. The opening few days of a Grand Tour are already frenzied enough, and with riders going all out for the maillot jaune while they still have a shot, it could get hectic out there.

Given the profile, it seems likely that this stage and the coveted prize on offer will come down to a shootout between the sport’s three fastest sprinters: Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel, Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Mark Cavendish, and Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel.

I see Kittel and Cavendish as neck and neck on this one, with Greipel close behind. Kittel’s performance in last year’s Tour de France established him as sprinting’s new top man, and he’s followed up with some nice victories this year. He was head and shoulders above the competition in the Giro d’Italia before abandoning with illness. Of particular interest in his limited time in that race was his Stage 3 victory, in which he closed a ridiculous gap in the final hundred meters to overcome a serious positioning deficit and take the win. It showed just how strong he is this year even when things don’t really go as planned for his team; that strength is all the more fearsome when Giant-Shimano’s awesome leadout squad hits their mark, and they usually do. Koen de Kort, Tom Veelers, Roy Curvers, and the extremely-fast John Degenkolb make for a stellar train, and they all work very well together. In what is likely to be a very high speed finale, Kittel will be hard to beat on Stage 1.

Mark Cavendish will be going full gas to win this stage and the yellow jersey on British roads, and he is Kittel’s chief opponent. On paper, his leadout should be quite strong, but they haven’t really put it all together yet this year. Still, Cav has taken several nice wins this season to show that he’s on form, and unlike last year, there will be no question of post-Giro fatigue. I’m not sure his top-end speed matches Kittel’s but the slight uphill gradient may be more favorable to the Manx Missile, who is considerably lighter than his chief rival. Motivation will also be sky-high. These two should be neck and neck.

I think Andre Greipel’s chances are being a bit underrated by the bookies. Like Kittel, he benefits from a leadout that usually delivers him to the finish-line with machine-like precision. He will also be coming into this race with the confidence of having just won the German National Road Race Championship and a host of other victories all year. And despite his massive legs, Greipel has shown that he can succeed even on slight uphill gradients in the final few hundred meters. He should be a real contender for Stage 1.

After Stages 1 and 3, we should have a better idea of which of the big three is fastest right now, but until then, it’s hard to name a favorite of them with much certainty. There will also be a few other names in the mix, and given the increased likelihood for crashes on a hectic opening stage sprint, outsiders could find themselves battling for the win at a moment’s notice. Cannondale’s Peter Sagan generally seems locked in for the Top 5 on these sorts of stages but rarely actually contests the victory when Kittel, Cavendish, and Greipel are involved; however, the somewhat uphill finish will suit him nicely and it could give him an edge. The same is true for FDJ’s Arnaud Demare, who is on fire right now. It’s possible that Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb finds himself sprinting for the victory (if something happens to Kittel, or if, for whatever reason, his team decides to back him instead), and in that scenario, Degenkolb will be very dangerous here as well. Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo took his first WorldTour win in the Tour de Suisse last month and this finish suits him perfectly. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Movistar’s JJ Rojas will be fringe contenders. Michael Matthews, unfortunately, suffered a training crash this week and his Tour start is now in doubt. Even if he does make the start, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to be in the mix while still recovering; however, Orica-GreenEdge teammate Simon Gerrans could try his luck with this finish.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Andre Greipel

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the Tour! The preview of Stage 2 will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 1, so stay tuned. If you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 4, 2014