The last stage before the first rest day should be a good one. The first 140km will be relatively calm, but the finale is set to deliver GC action. The Cat. 1 Alto del Mirador del Fito will be a nice appetizer, 6.2km at 7.8%, but it’s the special-category Lagos de Covadonga climb that will really put the hurt on, nearly twice as long as the Mirador at 12.2km but almost as steep 7.2%.
It’s an irregular climb with plenty of extra steep stretches to motivate attacks, too, with none more challenging than the last few hundred meters, where the road kicks up over 17%. That won’t be a pleasant way to close out 10 straight days of racing.
The breakers will have a shot Monday, especially what with the way the peloton has given them so much breathing room up to this point in the race. However, this being a great chance for the overall contenders to pick up chunks of time on their rivals, and with a rest day on the horizon, it seems likely they’ll be far more interested in a making the race hard than they were in Stage 9.
After a quiet first week, Nairo Quintana made a loud statement in Stage 8. Until he shows weakness, it’s hard to pick against him on this climb as the race favorite. His teammate Alejandro Valverde might get involved too, though he didn’t looked quite as sharp in Stage 8 and this climb doesn’t suit him as much as the shorter challenges in the first week.
Chris Froome and Alberto Contador figure to be Quintana’s main rivals. Their big engines are much better tailored to the Covadonga climb than anything we’ve seen so far in the race. I’d probably rate Froome’s chances as slightly better than Contador’s because, as I say at every opportunity, he’s got a higher ceiling on a good day—but it’s close. Esteban Chaves, Samuel Sánchez, DarwinAtapuma, and Simon Yates are others to watch out of the main bunch, though it’s hard to see any of them matching the heavyweights on this climb.
From the breakaway, keep an eye on José Goncalves, Rubén Fernandez, Lilian Calmejane, Pierre Rolland, Joe Dombrowski, and Robert Gesink.
VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites
1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador
Tuesday’s stage is a tough one to forecast thanks to a small climb late in the day, though the rest of the stage will probably be relatively mundane. The Port d’Envalira is one heck of a climb but it comes so early in the action it’s not going to have much of an impact on the racing other than probably setting up the early break.
Then it’s a long descent and about 130km of mostly flat roads before the Côte de Saint-Ferréol, 1.8km at 6.6%, crested 7km from the finish. The road only really flattens out for the final 3km.
This stage could go any number of ways. It’s possible the break takes it, in case the sprinters’ teams aren’t all that interested in keeping the escapees under control with a testy finish on offer. It’s possible the bunch gets to the finish together, though slightly reduced from the late climb. It’s possible someone attacks out of the peloton on the climb. And it’s possible that the stage ends in a sprint. That’s a lot of options.
I like Peter Sagan to win the stage because he could triumph in any one of those four scenarios. He’s looked great even in the pure bunch sprints so far in the race, not to mention his skills as a solo artist and puncheur. He can be in the mix no matter what happens in Stage 10.
I think there’s a decent probability of a bunch sprint, too, so Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel could all be in play. Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, and in particular, Bryan Coquard are especially dangerous given the profile.
I see Tony Gallopin as a nice option to attack for the win. He’ll love the finale. Greg Van Avermaet, Julian Alaphilippe, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Fabian Cancellara, and Steve Cummings could get involved with a long-range strike as well.
VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites
1. Peter Sagan | 2. Bryan Coquard | 3. Tony Gallopin
The Giro’s 10th stage takes the peloton 219 kilometers on undulating roads from Tuscany into Emilia-Romagna. With a Cat. 1 climb 16 kilometers from the line and a Cat. 3 uphill finish, it’s definitely going to open up a few gaps on the general classification, with the punchy types having a leg in the finale.
As far as the battle for the stage win, however, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a long-range (and still punchy) attacker take this prize, whether it’s a member of the early breakaway or someone jumping clear towards the end of the day.
Tim Wellens, currently leading the King of the Mountains competition, fits the bill. He already has one stage victory in this Giro and this would be a great opportunity for another.
Diego Ulissi is another name that stands out as a candidate to win either from the main breakaway, with a late attack, or even in a reduced uphill sprint. Versatility comes in handy on stage like this.
Alessandro De Marchi, Damiano Cunego, Giovanni Visconti, and Stefano Pirazzi are other candidates for long-distance success in Stage 10.
If the GC contenders battle it out at the finish, Alejandro Valverde will be the clear favorite. This is just the sort of finish that he loves.
Rigoberto Urán may have lost serious ground in the Stage 9 TT, but I wouldn’t underestimate him here. He’s quick to the line and could get some breathing room if he decides to jump into a late move.
The stage probably isn’t difficult enough for Mikel Landa, Vincenzo Nibali, or Esteban Chaves to be in their element but don’t count them out either. 10 days into the Giro, no one rider has really establish himself as the man to beat in this race, so it’s about time someone gets aggressive in the battle for the pink jersey.
VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites
1. Tim Wellens | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Alejandro Valverde
The Tour’s first rest day gave the peloton an opportunity to get some much-needed time off (and it gave the Recon Ride time to record the second of three Tour de France podcast episodes, which includes plenty of race analysis worth listening to!), but the mountains of Stage 10, the first real climbs of the race, will be a rude awakening for the bunch.
The trip from Tarbes to La Pierre-Saint-Martin in the Pyrenees will be a relatively short one at 167 total kilometers. The first 140 of those kilometers won’t offer much in the way of challenging topography—three Cat. 4 climbs dot the profile along the way from the start of the stage to the foot of the final climb.
That final climb will be the hardest uphill test so far in this Tour de France. La Pierre-Saint-Martin is a 15.3-kilometer ascent at an average gradient of 7.4%. The most difficult section comes about half-way through, a 4km stretch at over 9%. Then things ease off a bit, before another quick steep section near the summit, where things even out again close to the line.
The La Pierre-Saint-Martin finale of Stage 10 will likely be the first real GC showdown of the 2015 Tour.
With two more tough mountain days to follow, Stage 10 could have some riders planning to take things easy. Expect the early breakaway to open up a big advantage over the first hundred kilometers. Plus, July 14th is Bastille Day—the many French riders in the peloton will be more motivated than ever to get some TV time at the head of the race, and it could be a crowded fight to be in the day’s big move. On the other hand, the bunch will probably amp up the pace on the flat stretch that leads into the foot of the last climb, and then the challenging finale will likely see any riders up the road losing a lot of time to a chasing pack. In short, the breakaway has a shot here, but it will be a challenge holding off the peloton.
The difficulty of this climb to the finish will likely bring out the top climbers in the race. Chris Froome, enjoying the GC lead at the moment, certainly fits that description. Froome built his 2013 victory on a dominant early-stage performance, and could be looking to do the same here. His impressive team should put him into a good position to strike in the finale, if he is so inclined—he does already have the yellow jersey though, and that could inspire him to be a bit more conservative, allowing the others to do the attacking.
Nairo Quintana has not been at his best so far in the Tour, but he should be starting to come good at this point in the race, especially after a rest day. Almost 2 minutes down on GC, Quintana may be given a bit of breathing room by the other favorites if he gets up the road—and even if his GC rivals aren’t inclined to let him up the road, it may not make much of a difference to one of the world’s best climbers. Quintana’s teammate Alejandro Valverde is also an obvious candidate to make something happen on Stage 10.
Alberto Contador’s ability to hang with the top climbers in his race after a tough Giro has been a major question mark so far. After Stage 10, we’ll have some answers. Based on what he’s shown up to this point, I’m expecting Contador to be able be in the mix, but would be surprised if he’s among the very top finishers on the stage. This is even truer for Vincenzo Nibali who struggled on Stage 8.
Joaquim Rodríguez is in excellent form at the moment. He might be looking to launch a move on the steeper sections of the final climb. Alternatively, if he’s able to stay at the front of the race, he’ll be a favorite in a potential sprint to the line at the top of the climb.
Tejay van Garderen was one of the few riders in Chris Froome’s stratosphere in the Dauphiné. He’s climbing better than ever this season, and has a strong support squad around him. If this comes down to a GC battle on the slopes of the final climb, expect van Garderen to be in the mix. Unfortunately for van Garderen, Froome is eyeing him closely given his current position on GC, and that will make it hard for him to get clear in the finale.
Thibaut Pinot will be a rider to watch on France’s National Holiday. He’s no longer much of a GC threat, but the form has certainly been there this year—that makes him a dangerous rider who could try to go for a long one. Compatriots Romain Bardet and Warren Barguil could also look for opportunities to get clear as well.
Alexis Vuillermoz has put in some big rides on tough mountain stages recently and could be in the mix either with an early attack or a late one. Pierre Rolland has not looked his usual self so far in the Tour, but he could bounce back in a breakaway here. Ryder Hesjedal, Julian Arredondo, Adam Yates, Louis Meintjes, and Rafal Majka are other riders to keep an eye on in a potential long-range move scenario.
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 10.
The peloton has now had its first official rest day, but Stage 10 should give at least the GC riders another relaxing day in Italy—the profile is not particularly challenging.
The first 100 kilometers of Stage 10 are almost completely flat. The next 30 kilometers offer a few very small climbs, including a single Cat. 4 ascent, but after that, it’s pancake-flat again all the way to the finish line in Forlì. A pair of intermediate sprint points late the day will offer a preview of the probable sprinters’ battle to come. The combination of a sharp right-hander with a little more than a kilometer to go and a sharp left hander inside the final kilometer will probably be the route’s most compelling feature, as it will make for a stressful finale.
This should be a day for a big bunch kick—anything else would be a massive failure by the teams of the quick men. André Greipel is the startlist’s top-name sprinter, and after poorly timing his finishing kick on Stage 2, he got things right and powered to the win on Stage 6 to stake his claim to favorite status in the Giro’s fast finishes. With a strong leadout and a pure focus on just this sort of stage, Greipel is the rider to watch—still, he’s prone to having a bad day here and there, and that means that plenty of other speedsters will have their eyes on the possibility of a win here.
Behind Greipel the picture is a bit less clear, with several riders looking to have similar chances to come away with a stage win here. Sacha Modolo, like Greipel, is extremely fast on his good days but also prone to disappearing on others. He’s one of the few riders here with a good chance of beating even an on-point André Greipel.
Elia Viviani doesn’t have as much leadout support as his rivals but he proved that that doesn’t mean he can’t compete when he won Stage 2. It will be interesting to see if he expends energy trying to nab red jersey points at the intermediate sprints, however—that may take a bit out of him late in the day. The same is true for Giacomo Nizzolo, who has been active at the intermediates so far. In any case, both are top options on this day.
Matteo Pelucchi has been practically anonymous in eight of the race’s nine stages so far . . . but he was runner-up to Greipel on Stage 6, and in a stage without any uphill challenges like Stage 10, he has another great opportunity. Moreno Hofland is another sprinter who has been a runner-up in a flat finish (on Stage 2) and he should be in the mix as well. Luka Mezgec has the always well-marshaled Giant-Alpecin leadout to help him into the final few kilometers, and he’s looked good so far.
Tom Boonen, Michael Matthews, Juan José Lobato, Manuel Belletti, and Nicola Ruffoni are others with a chance on this stage.
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 10 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
Stage 10 (ITT): Real Monasterio de Santa María de Veruela › Borja – 36.7 km
Winner Anacona led the peloton into the Vuelta’s first rest day with a win from the breakaway on Stage 9. Now it’s on to the critical Stage 10, a 36.7 km individual time trial. The parcours should open up some significant time gaps among the top GC contenders. The course starts out with a gentle uphill that leads into a short but steep Cat. 3 climb crested 11.2 kilometers into the stage. Then it’s all downhill to the finish. It’s not a straight-out run to the line, with some twists and turns along the way, but it’s not extremely technical. This is likely to be a very high speed chrono.
Tony Martin is the big favorite for stage honors. This is route that will favor chrono specialists, and he is the world’s premier time trialist. He’s also a great descender. It’s hard to see anyone outmatching his engine over 36.7 kilometers.
Behind Martin are several time trialing specialists and GC riders with top-notch chrono ability who should make the battle for Top 3 on the stage a tight one. Fabian Cancellara is obviously a prolific time trialist, and he’ll be one of the few riders with a shot of beating Martin in the World Champs later this month, but form is a bit in question at the moment. He has fallen off the pace even on a few of the flatter stages in this race, and though he’s likely give this time trial far more effort than he has on any stage so far, it may not be enough to match up with the likes of Martin. Cancellara is a strong descender and this is a nice parcours for him, but victory on Stage 10 would be a lot to ask.
This ITT is central to the GC hopes of Chris Froome, and he is one of the few red jersey hunters who excels even on a flatter chrono profile. His time trial performances in this year’s Tour de Romandie and the Criterium du Dauphine were stellar, and if he can recapture that strength here, with motivation running high, he’s likely to be among the top finishers on the day.
Alberto Contador is another GC rider with serious time trialing talent, and he’s a great descender to boot. If his time trialing engine is in as good shape as his climbing legs, he should be able to deliver a top-notch performance on Stage 10. Rigoberto Uran has developed into an elite talent against the clock as well, and he looks to be rounding into form in this race after a disappointing first mountain stage.
Movistar’s Adriano Malori had a hot start to the year, winning a Tirreno-Adriatico time trial ahead of Martin and Cancellara. He hasn’t had as much success in the latter half of the season, but after post-crash injuries robbed him of a chance to take a Grand Tour ITT win in the Giro d’Italia, he’ll be motivated to go for this. Trek’s Kristof Vandewalle beat Malori by 3 seconds to take his first WorldTour win the Tour de Pologne chrono last month, and he’ll be another outsider for stage honors. BMC’s Rohan Dennis put in an underwhelming ride in the Eneco Tour’s time trial stage, but he’ll be eager to show his new team what he’s made of here. Bob Jungels (who is targeting this stage especially), Jesse Sergent, Tobias Ludvigsson, Vasil Kiryienka, Stef Clement, Jonathan Castroviejo, and GC riders Wilco Kelderman and Nairo Quintana (who has improved against the clock this year) are others who could be in the mix on Stage 10.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Tony Martin | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Fabian Cancellara
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 10, so stay tuned.
