Now that the Vuelta peloton has enjoyed a rest day, GC action will resume with a tough finishing climb in stage 11. Of course, first, the riders will take on about 160 kilometers of flat (though terrifically scenic) coastal roads.
Once they hit the climb, things get hard quite quickly. It’s a 5.6km ascent with two steeper sections and a brief respite in the middle. There’s an 18% stretch in the final kilometer.
I’d imagine a break will get away early and open up a significant advantage, but it shouldn’t be too hard for the bunch to reel in a move in the run-up to the climb, so my main favorites for Stage 11 come from the GC contenders. I especially like a few riders a little ways down the leaderboard who might get a bit of room to roam on the way up the climb, as I wouldn’t be surprised if Nairo Quintana returns to his old habit of riding (too) conservatively in a Grand Tour.
Simon Yates has been great so far this Vuelta and he’s got the punch to thrive on a short climb like this. I would expect him to get some breathing room with an attack.
To a lesser degree I see Samuel Sánchez possibly playing a similar role. He’s a long way removed from Olympic gold, but he’s still got some power in those legs. Gianlcua Brambilla has done a nice job to say in the fight for a Top 10 in the race, and I think he’s got a shot if he makes a move here as well.
All that said, the big, marquee GC contenders could very well be gunning for the stage win here, and Quintana is probably the fave among them. His teammate Alejandro Valverde has a nice skillset for the climb too, but I think he’s all in for Quintana right now so I have a hard time seeing him crossing the line ahead of the red jersey. I think Chris Froome is more likely to be in that position. In fact, I’m probably more bullish on Froome than many others—I think he does just fine even on really steep gradients, even if he likes to drop off the back of a GC group early on. Esteban Chaves and Alberto Contador are of course worth watching as well.
If it comes down to the early breakaway, the long list of stage win candidates includes Robert Gesink, Hugh Carthy, Mathias Frank, Thomas De Gendt, Pierre Rolland, Joe Dombrowski, Tejay van Garderen, and Darwin Atapuma.
VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites
1. Simon Yates | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Chris Froome
Fortunately, the Tour’s 11th stage is relatively short, because the profile doesn’t have much to offer in the way of interesting features. Unless the peloton really screws this one up, Wednesday should be a sprinter’s day.
I expect a bunch kick for the pure specialists, which means I’m going to have trouble making my prognostications all that compelling: as usual, it should be all about Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel. I’m going to stubbornly pick Marcel Kittel for this stage despite Cav’s success in the Tour so far.
I think the probably traditional mass sprint here favors Kittel, if only slightly—especially since Cav’s top leadout man Mark Renshaw is out of the Tour. And while I see Cavendish as a very close contender just as worth of favorite status, don’t count Greipel simply because he hasn’t won yet. He can run a bit hot and cold, and if he’s hot in Stage 11, he could very well win.
Beyond that big three it’s more of the same in terms of possible outsiders. Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, and Alexander Kristoff headline a list that also includes Dylan Groenewegen, Edward Theuns, John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews, and perhaps Sam Bennett, if he’s feeling up for it.
VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites
1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel
I hate to say it, but Stage 11 of the 2016 Giro d’Italia will likely be very boring for the first 200 kilometers. Fortunately, the finale looks quite interesting. After the peloton traverses pancake-flat roads for more than four hours, they’ll hit a lumpy final 30km that could spring attacks.
The short but steep Cat. 4 crested at kilometer 207, just under 3km at almost 8%, will almost certainly inspire a few aggressors. It will also put pressure on the sprinters. From the top it’s a steep descent into a few more rollers, with a key uncategorized climb of around 1.5km at 6% inside the final 5km. Said climb includes a bit of cobblestones, and it is followed by a descent. The road only flattens out for the final kilometer, which won’t really give anyone who gets dropped on the uphill time to get back into position.
The early breakaway has a shot at this stage if the sprinters teams don’t get organized—I’d expect the day’s move to get a big gap early on in the day. However, if the bunch decides to chase, it shouldn’t be too hard to close down the gap. My first inclination is that this stage will end in a reduced sprint.
Sonny Cobrelli is a great candidate for Stage 11, either from the break or the bunch, given his impressive finishing kick and his ability to handle short climbs. If he’s in the group fighting it out for the win at the end of the day, I expect a lot from the Italian.
The same is true of Diego Ulissi. He prefers uphill sprints, but he’s quite speedy even in a flat finish like this one. Tim Wellens is another rider to watch with these late climbs, whether he gets in the early move or decides to stick with the pack.
André Greipel can’t be counted out for a potential sprint finish. He’s very strong right now, and he has improved a great deal on tougher profiles in recent years. Arnaud Démare may be a better pick for the stage, however, as he seems a bit more likely to stay well-positioned over the late climbs. The same could be said for Giacomo Nizzolo.
To me, the biggest threat for a sprint outside of Colbrelli is Alejandro Valverde. It’ll be touch and go whether the purer sprinters can survive the stage, but Valverde should be right there in the mix if it comes down to the peloton. Matteo Trentin, Enrico Battaglin, Kristian Sbaragli are others to watch on Stage 11.
Stage 11: Andorra la Valle › Cortals d’Encamp – 138km
The Vuelta a España visits Andorra for Stage 11, and some are calling it the hardest Vuelta stage ever. I haven’t reviewed every Vuelta stage since 1935 to really get a clear, definitive sense of whether that’s true, but it’s certainly going to be really, really hard.
It’s actually a very short stage at just 138km, and none of the climbs are longer than 12km. It’s the steepness and unceasing nature of the climbs that makes this stage such a challenge: from the moment they leave the start line until they cross the finish line, the riders will be ascending vicious uphill gradients or flying down harrowing descents.
The first half of the stage is composed of a trio of Cat. 1s, all of them followed by technical, steep downhills. Then comes the special-category Collada de la Gallina, 11.7km at 8.5%, after which the pack will descend on a gradient about as steep as the one they just climbed.
That quartet of brutal tests would be enough for most mountain stages, but the Vuelta’s 11th stage concludes with a leg-breaking one-two punch. First it’s the Cat. 2 Alto de la Comella, 4km at a whopping 9.5%, and after a quick descent it’s an uncategorized uphill run into the Cat. 1 finishing climb.
Stage 11 finally comes to an end atop the Alto Els Cortals d’Encamp, 8.7km at a 9.1% average gradient.
The Alto Els Cortals d’Encamp is a pretty regular climb—but it’s 8.7km at an average of 9.1%. Taking on two climbs of over 9% in such quick succession after such a tough day will probably see several big names see their GC campaigns go up in flames—there is just no way that everyone makes it up super-steep gradients unscathed.
On such a short stage, the pace is going to be high. In terms of trying to predict who will come out on top on this brutal day in Andorra, it’s already hard enough drawing conclusions from the earlier climbing stages in the race (which really can’t compare to this one), but the fact that this profile is pretty breakaway-friendly will further complicate things. However, this early queen stage will be a good opportunity for anyone who is feeling strong to make a huge statement in the GC fight, so we could see the top favorites testing each other early, and that will make it tough for a breakaway (as will the brutal finishing climb). That being the case, I see the top GC riders as better stage candidates than any individual breakaway candidates, especially since none of the long-range specialists have really established themselves just yet in this Vuelta.
Fabio Aru was the strongest rider on Stage 7 and among the strongest on Stage 9. I’d like his chances better if Vincenzo Nibali were still in the race, and if Mikel Landa were still a GC threat that could potentially go up the road and force others to chase, but Aru should still be a great pick for Stage 11. The final climb suits him well, brutally steep and long enough that he’ll really have a chance to launch a move from a little ways out as is his custom. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of his rivals were watching each other instead of him, giving him a chance to get up the road. The aforementioned Mikel Landa could have a chance as well if the team decides to let him go stagehunting.
Chris Froome did not look good on Stage 7 but came roaring back on Stage 9, suggesting that he’s starting to come around. This isn’t the sort of stage that screams Sky Train, but I think it’s sort of a misconception that Froome can only handle long, low-gradient climbs. He’s among the best in the world on the steep stuff, too, and he’s got more punch than people realize. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him tapping out his own pace early on the final climb only to leave his rivals behind in the finale. Nicolas Roche and Mikel Nieve have looked strong as well, and Sky, a squad that seems to understanding how little benefit there is to be gained from riding in a group on this gradients, will probably green light attacks if either is feeling good.
36-years-old or no, Joaquím Rodríguez has looked unflappable thus far in the Vuelta. He’s played things far more conservatively than expected, but he has also managed to stay right up there on all the important stages in the race. This stage might be a little too hard for the Spanish veteran, but if he can survive until the finale he’ll have a great place to go on the move. He’s a public proponent of Andorran cycling, and will be highly motivated to get something out of this one.
Nairo Quintana suffered a bit in the heat in the first week, but the Vuelta a España is entering cooler territory—and Quintana appears to be heating up. He’ll appreciate the consistently high gradients. Meanwhile, teammate Alejandro Valverde did not look quite as strong on Stage 9 as he had earlier in the week, so it could be Quintana’s time to make a statement.
Rafal Majka finished 5th on Stage 9 and probably has some intention of getting active here on Stage 11. While this profile will be a challenge, he should be fresher than many of the top climbers in the race, having ridden the Tour as a domestique and stagehunter instead of as a GC contender.
As amazing as Tom Dumoulin has been, I have a hard time seeing him staying in touch with the big climbing favorites on Stage 11. He can’t be ruled out, as he has defied expectation so far, but it would be a huge surprise. Esteban Chaves, on the other hand, should actually be pretty well-suited to the finishing climb, if he can recover from a bad day on Stage 9. Domenico Pozzovivo hasn’t been stellar in the Vuelta just yet, but if he can work his way into shape he should be able to get into the mix on this stage.
If the favorites are hesitant to put each other under pressure on this brutal stage, it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise to see someone sneak clear and win this stage from a breakaway. Stage 11 will have huge implications for the King of the Mountains Classification, so anyone with long-term KOM aspirations would do well to jump into the move.
We don’t have much to go on yet in terms of clear markers of climbing form from the long-ranges specialists, but Samuel Sánchez, Cyril Gautier, Jerome Cousin, Omar Fraile, José Goncalvez, Fabio Duarte, Rodolfo Torres, Daniel Navarro, Bart De Clercq, Gianluca Brambilla, Pierre Rolland, and Jurgen Van Den Broeck are all on the long list of riders with potential to play a role from afar on Stage 11.
Stage 10, the Tour’s first mountain stage, provided the first real glimpse into the climbing form of the GC names in this race, with Chris Froome making the biggest statement of them all on the slopes of the final ascent (as Whit Yost predicted he would in the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast). Stage 11 will provide the uphill specialists with another opportunity to put their skills on display.
The first half of the stage will see the riders heading gradually skyward, taking on three not-that-difficult climbs on the way, before things get extremely difficult after the midway point of the day. First comes the 12km, 6.5% Col d’Aspin. From the top, the riders will fly down a descent and right into the foot of the HC-rated Col du Tourmalet, 17.1km at 7.3%. The legendary Tourmalet starts out at lower gradients, but things really kick up after the first third of the climb, with the gradients starting to hit double digits about halfway up.
The stage does not end at the Tourmalet summit, however. After crossing the line at the KOM, the pack will head downhill for over 30 kilometers, before reaching the Cat. 3 Côte de Cauterets, 6.4km at 5%. The finish awaits a little over 3km after the that climb.
There are plenty of places on Stage 11 for the climbers to go on the move, and it will be extremely difficult to control the race with so much up and down. After a brutal Stage 10 and with another challenging Stage 12 on tap, with plenty of now-former GC hopefuls significantly down on the General Classification, and with a boatload of KOM points on offer long before the line here, this will be a great opportunity for breakaway success, either from the main early move, or from a later strike on the slopes. Sky is probably not going to be interested in keeping the breakaway on a short leash, meaning that only a concerted effort by the teams further down on the GC leaderboard will keep this in check. As usual on days that offer the long-range attackers such a strong chance at success, Stage 11 will be very hard to predict, with aggressive climbers looking to be the best bets for victory.
If the peloton takes a reserved approach to the Tourmalet, the more enterprising riders will have a prime opportunity to get clear and hold out for the win on Stage 11. One of the sport’s foremost breakaway conneisseurs, Pierre Rolland, finished among the Top 10 on Stage 10, ahead of both Tejay van Garderen and Alberto Contador, among others. Over 10 minutes behind on the General Classification, Rolland won’t threaten Sky, and he shouldn’t not threaten those vying for podium spots either. Stage 11 has a great profile for Rolland, one of cycling’s best when it comes to constant ups and downs.
Tony Gallopin finished just behind Rolland on Stage 10, an incredible performance for the versatile Frenchman. The Tourmalet is a brutal climb, but the way Gallopin has been riding, he could survive the challenge the contend for the win at a finish that suits him perfectly—the big question for Gallopin will be whether the other GC hopefuls in the Top 10 will give him any breathing room to go on teh move; it seems crazy that Gallopin could be considered a threat into the Pyrenees, but the held onto a great position so far, and anyone looking to secure a Top 5 finish in this race could see him as a danger. If he’s in the lead group before the final climb (whether that’s a breakaway group or the pack), Gallopin should be a top favorite for a stage victory.
Stage 11 also looks great for Joaquim Rodríguez, who could use the late climb as a launching pad or alternatively, hold out for a sprint if he’s at the head of the race at the end of the day—but Rodríguez did not look good on Stage 10. The Grand Tour veteran is a decent bounce-back candidate though, and now that he’s well out of GC contention, he could be given some breathing room to go on the move.
Rafael Valls appeared to take over team leadership from Rui Costa of Lampre-Merida on Stage 10, and he put in a bold long-range attack early on during the final climb to the line. Valls is something of an unknown quantity, only just starting to ride at this level this season, but if he can muster his impressive talents to get into a breakaway, I think he has a great chance of pulling off a big surprise here; and don’t count out Costa, who does tend to thrive on a parcuors like this.
A glance at the Stage 10 results doesn’t tell the whole picture about Warren Barguil’s form right now—he finished over 3 minutes behind Froome on the day, but that’s after coming back from a late crash that cost him serious time. The climbing legs look to be there in spades right now, and at over 6 minutes back on the GC, Barguil may get some freedom to attack. His two-stage-win 2013 Vuelta was a master class in mountain breakaway riding, and he could be in the hunt for a long-range strike here.
A now-down-on-GC Vincenzo Nibali, Dan Martin, Julian Arredondo, Michal Kwiatkowski, Thibaut Pinot, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema, Laurens Ten Dam, Alexis Vuillermoz, both Simon and Adam Yates, and potentially even Peter Sagan are just a few more of the many riders on the list of potential stage-winners well-positioned to make something happen either from the bunch or in a long-range move now that big gaps have opened up on the GC leaderboard.
If this comes down to a pack finish, Alejandro Valverde will be among the top favorites with a potential reduced sprint on tap. He came close to stage victory on the Mûr-de-Bretagne climb, he’s looked better these past few days than he did at the start of the race, and the collective firepower of Movistar makes him very dangerous. Robert Gesink, who finished an impressive 4th on Stage 10, has both the form and a nice finishing kick to be a danger here as well.
It will be interesting to see whether the big GC hopefuls decide to be active on the Tourmalet, so far from the finish. If so, Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will be obvious favorites to resume hostilities, with Froome looking to have the edge after the first round of mountain dueling. Alternatively, Alberto Contador and Tejay van Garderen could look to regain some time here with a late strike, though it own’t be easy escaping the dominant Sky train right now.
VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites
1. Pierre Rolland | 2. Tony Gallopin | 3. Alejandro Valverde
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 11.
What looked set to be a very uninteresting Stage 10 turned quite interesting when a breakaway managed to stay clear, giving Nicola Boem a stage victory, and things got even crazier when Richie Porte lost nearly 3 minutes on the General Classification due to an untimely puncture and an ensuing penalization for receiving a wheel from a non-teammate. The interesting action should continue on Stage 11, which has the profile for plenty more compelling racing at the Giro d’Italia.
There are no long, brutal climbs, but it will be an exhausting day of truly constant up and down. There is a Cat. 3 climb almost from the gun, followed by three uncategorized climbs (and descents) that could easily merit at least Category 4 status in their own rights, and then another Cat. 3 before a descent to the foot of a climb that the riders will have to take on four consecutive times. The Tre Monti climb is apparently worthy of Category 4 status . . . but only on one of the four trips up, the penultimate one. It’s a little over 4km at an average over 4%, but it’s an irregular ascent with a few steeper stretches. After the first ascent, the riders will descend toward the Imola racetrack and cross over the finish line for the first time, and from there, they’ll embark on three laps in a circuit that will take them back up the Tre Monti and back down to the track.
The descent into the finish is not technical, but the downhill run from the top of the Tre Monti only flattens out inside the final km, though, so any ground lost on the climb and ensuing descent will be hard to make up before the final crossing of the finish line.
With so many climbs on the menu, it’s hard to see a sprint happening, for many reasons. First, the pure sprinters probably won’t make it too the finish. Categorized or not, there are some tough uphill challenges to overcome on Stage 11. What’s more, the profile is perfect for a long-range move, either the morning breakaway or, if that is swept up, later attacks on the climbs—it will be extremely difficult for the peloton to control this race, and the Giro’s peloton has not shown itself to be particularly interested in inter-team cooperation. Even if the day does somehow see a large, compact lead group coming into the finish, with less than a kilometer of flat running into the line, the surviving sprinters won’t have much of an opportunity to get into position for the final kick to the line, and it’s likely to get pretty messy. This one is a challenge to predict.
In terms of the potential victory-by-long-range scenario, Orica-GreenEdge has a number of riders they might send up the road, chief among them, Simon Gerrans and Simon Clarke. In recent seasons, Gerrans has made a name for himself by waiting for reduced sprints on hillier days (and he’ll of course be a danger in that scenario here), but he’s always had a great talent as a breakaway specialist, and he could try to get up the road here. Simon Clarke has spent plenty of time in breakaways in this race already, and will be a strong candidate again here.
Philippe Gilbert should be an obvious name for this sort of stage, given the profile. It will be a fierce fight to get into the breakaway, but his talent for climbing small hills like the ones that will kick off the racing on Stage 11 will give him a great chance to get involved if he goes for it.
Diego Ulissi has already won a stage in this race, showing off his excellent form right now. Like Gerrans, he’s got a great finishing kick, which means he’ll be deadly if he’s in the lead group at the end of the day—he can use his great climbing legs to stay at the front of a group over the last climb without necessarily needing to attack knowing that he can rely on the fast finish to win.
Tom-Jelte Slagter looked very strong on Stage 9 and will like the look of this profile, though it’s hard to pick one Cannondale-Garmin rider here with so many breakaway options among Tom Danielson, Davide Formolo, David Villella, and Ryder Hesjedal.
Simon Geschke, Sylvain Chavanel, Maciej Paterski, Adam Hansen, Giovanni Visconti, Stefano Pirazzi, Edoardo Zardini, Enrico Battaglin, Sonny Colbrelli, Grega Bole, and Rinaldo Nocentini are just some of the many other potential long-range victory candidates on this stage, most of whom will also be a dangerous if a reduced peloton contests this finish in a compact group.
Should this all come back together, Michael Matthews will be among the top names to add to the above list of stage victory candidates—Orica-GreenEdge really does have a wealth of options on this sort of profile. Trek’s Fabio Felline and Movistar’s Juan José Lobato are others who could get involved if everything goes their way; that is, if they can hold on over the difficult parcours, if the morning breakaway is swept up, and if no one gets clear on the final climb.
VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites
1. Simon Gerrans | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Diego Ulissi
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 11 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
