Stage 12: Los Corrales de Buelna › Bilbao – 193.2km
The Vuelta is headed into the Basque Country, and the terrain of stage 12 fits the bill. The two early climbs will put some tiredness into the legs in the bunch, and then two trips up a late Cat. 2 should lead to some action. The early breakers have a shot today, and so does anyone who tries to get away late. At the same time, the run-in to the line is flat, which makes a good sprint important.
Taking all those things into account, I’ve got a few punchy stagehunters in mind as favorites.
Fabio Felline is the first rider on the list. He shouldn’t have any trouble with the climbs, and his sprint is a big asset. One advantage he’ll have over a number of other likely contenders is his speed even on flat roads—he’s got nice climbing legs, but he’s a fast finisher even in a traditional bunch kick.
Gianluca Brambilla has a nice finish too, though his punchy climbing style will likely be his biggest ally, possibly allowing him to get away before the finale. The same is true of Luis León Sánchez.
Philippe Gilbert is definitely a rider to watch on this profile. He can win in several different scenarios, if the form is there.
Alejandro Valverde is a potential protagonist as well. He won’t be able to get into the early break, of course, but if the stage is ridden hard enough he could outsprint the rest of the big GC names at the end of the day.
Gianni Meersman is worth mentioning given his versatility—this is a tough stage but I don’t think it’s entirely impossible that he’ll survive to the line.
Pello Bilbao, Omar Fraile, Simon Yates, Thomas De Gendt, Simon Gerrans, and Jan Bakelants are others with a shot.
Thursday’s stage was supposed to be the day the GC contenders really clashed for the first time in this Tour, but windy weather in France has forced the organizers to shorten the stage—what was originally set to be a finish atop Mont Ventoux is now a finish 6km earlier at the Chalet Reynard. Given Ventoux’s odd geographic situation, far from any other serious climbs and therefore the only really hard ascent on the profile, that reduces the impact the stage will probably have.
Stage 12 will be still be a big challenge, however, as the now 14km finishing climb is still plenty steep. Plus, I think the racers will be starting to feel a need to pressure Chris Froome, who seems to pick up time every day. And by “the racers,” I mostly mean Nairo Quintana. There’s a chance this stage comes down to long-range attacker, but I think the Froome vs. Quintana showdown will be the main even Thursday.
I’m going to give Froome the slight edge. He’s beaten Quintana here before, and I’ve seen little so far this race to suggest he can’t do it again, though it certainly wouldn’t be a big surprise if Quintana were to nab the day.
I do expect attacks from the likes of Richie Porte and Romain Bardet to garner the attention of their rivals, which could make it hard to get away, but they’ll have a shot. Fabio Aru and Joaquím Rodríguez might get a bit of breathing room, making them dangerous. Personally, I’ll be watching to Dan Martin and Adam Yates to see if they can really hack it on a climb like this. Yellow is a real possibility for either of them if Froome is too focused on Quintana to chase.
There’s also a decent chance of a breakaway winner in Stage 12. Rafal Majka would be my top favorite there, with Thibaut Pinot, Rui Costa, Vincenzo Nibali, Steve Cummings, and Thomas De Gendt as other options.
VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites
1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Rafal Majka
After a brutal day in the mountains, the Vuelta will show mercy to the peloton with a less vicious Stage 12.
The first 35km of the stage are downhill. Then comes the only categorized climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Coll de Bóixols, 15.8km at a little over 5%. It’s not an easy climb but coming as early in the stage as it does, it probably won’t inflict too much damage on the bunch. From the top the stage is downhill or flat for almost the rest of the day. The final half-kilometer does angle upwards somewhat, but at a gradient of less than 4%.
The profile shouldn’t be too much of a challenge for the sprinters still in the peloton, and with so few opportunities for bunch finishes in this Vuelta, we can expect the sprinters’ teams to put in a lot of effort keeping the early breakaway on a tight leash. Plus, Stage 13 is a perfect stage for the breakaway, and that could see some of the top long-range protagonists keeping their powder dry for a day.
In the likely sprint scenario, John Degenkolb is the clear favorite in terms of peak ability, and despite having not yet won a stage in the Vuelta a España, he does look pretty good in the form department, if not at 100%. He nearly won Stage 10 despite having horrible positioning in the final 500 meters, and now that Giant-Alpecin will be less focused on Tom Dumoulin (who no longer holds the red jersey), Degenkolb should get a better leadout for the sprint. Barring a crash, it’s hard to see anyone beating Degenkolb here.
Kristian Sbaragli will certainly try, and will come into this stage bolstered by the fact that he’s already bested Degenkolb once in the race. It would be a pretty big surprise if he can double up, as Degenkolb is significantly quicker in a headsup battle, and there are others who can probably match Sbaragli as well if they can position themselves a bit better this time around.
One of those riders is José Joaquín Rojas. He couldn’t best Sbaragli on Stage 10, but the Italian veered in his direction in the finale of that sprint, making it much harder for the Spaniard to come around—so I’m not sure how great of a marker that performance was. I expect Rojas to place very highly here, and the slight gradient at the finish should suit him.
Tosh Van der Sande has looked strong so far in the race, and managed to come in 4th on Stage 10 after opening his sprint far too early. He could challenge again here. Jean-Pierre Drucker should be in the mix as well.
Danny Van Poppel is lacking in the versatility department and has not featured yet in the sprints at the Vuelta, but he should be able to hang on to contest the sprint here, and will have a nice shot at a stage win against this field.
José Goncalvez, Carlos Barbero, Maximiliano Richeze, Daniele Bennati are others with a chance at Stage 12 success.
VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites
1. John Degenkolb | 2. Kristian Sbaragli | 3. José Joaquín Rojas
With Rafal Majka’s stage victory in Cauterets, the Tour de France is two thirds of the way through a hard stretch of climbing days in the Pyrenees. Stage 12 should provide a thrilling Pyrenean finale. After 40 easy kilometers to start, it’s up and down all the way to the line. First up is the steep Col de Portet-d’Aspet, 4.3 kilometers at a vicious 9.7%. For a Cat. 2, it will be an unpleasant way to kick off what is set to be a very difficult day. From the top it’s about 20km of downhill to the foot of the Cat. 1 Col de la Core, 14.1km at 5.7%. It’s a climb that starts out relatively easy, but the final 8 kilometers are a bit more difficult, steadily above 6%. The descent from the summit runs to the town of Oust, where the road kicks up gently again on the way to the official start of the Cat. 1 Port de Lers climb, 12.9km at a 6% average gradient.
A very long descent follows before things flatten out for a short stretch before the road angles upward sharply—the Plateau de Beille finishing climb is one of the hardest challenges the riders will face in the Tour de France. 15.8 kilometers at 7.9%, it’s a long, steep trip up. It’s a mostly steady climb at least, but that won’t provide much comfort seeing as the gradient is high the entire way up, except at the very top where things flatten out in the final run to the line.
It may not have the name recognition of Stage 11’s Tourmalet, but Stage 12’s Plateau de Beille climb is an extremely difficult mountain test.
With so many vertical meters to overcome on the day and a finishing climb like the Plateau de Beille, Stage 12 is one for the pure climbing talents. There have already been plenty of testing days so far in this Tour de France of course, but there really isn’t any margin for weakness on Stage 12, which will find out those lacking fitness early, and make them pay all the way to the finish.
The profile should offer the breakaway a chance at success, and many of the likely escape candidates kept their powder dry on Stage 11; a strong enough group of aggressors has a chance at success here. However, this is the final day of high mountain racing for a little while, which will likely inspire hostilities among the GC types. What’s more, the final climb will require a significant gap for the breakaway to outlast any determined chasers. A breakaway of less-than-elite climbers isn’t likely to have much of a chance, and even one made up of top talents is going to have a hard time staying clear.
Chris Froome is far and away the strongest climber in the race right now, and he happens to enjoy the support of the strongest team as well. If he wants this stage, it’s hard to see anyone stopping him. The question is whether he’ll put in the effort with nearly 3 minutes of an advantage over his nearest rivals. He didn’t shy away from padding his GC lead in the 2013 Tour even after a dominant Stage 8 win, but there is no guarantee he’ll stick to that strategy here. Sky could also give Richie Porte or Geraint Thomas a chance to ride for a stage victory if Froome’s top lieutenants are still with him near the summit finish.
Nairo Quintana looked better on Stage 10 than he has all race, notching a 3rd-place finish on the stage, and he should continue to improve after an early bout with illness. At his best, he is probably one of the few riders capable of matching Froome on a finish like this. He will benefit from having a teammate high up on GC: Movistar’s one-two punch is a deadly weapon in this Tour, and the riders in dark blue will need to play all their cards if they want any hope at the Tour GC title now that Froome is already so far ahead—watch out for Alejandro Valverde here too.
Robert Gesink was surprisingly the 4th best finisher on Stage 10. If he can hold on with the top GC riders all the way up to the top of the finishing climb, he’s not bad in a reduced uphill sprint (his surprise win in the GP Québec in 2013 can attest to that). Compatriot Bauke Mollema made a nice jump from the pack to pick up a few seconds on Stage 11—he too has a nice finishing move and could get in the mix on Stage 12.
Alberto Contador is clearly not at his strongest in this Tour on the heels of his Giro win, but he can’t be counted out on an HC-rated summit finish. Tejay van Garderen was not really in with a chance at the stage victory on Stage 10’s climb to the line, but he rode well and could put in a good performance on Stage 12 if the pace is kept relatively steady in the finale.
Pierre Rolland finished ahead of Contador and van Garderen both on Stage 10, and he was right with the GC men on Stage 11. Unlike the aforementioned riders, high on the General Classification, Rolland is over 13 minutes down on Chris Froome on the overall leaderboard. If he wants to go for this from afar, he should be given a chance. He kept his breakaway powder dry on Stage 11, and while it’s always a challenge predicting who will get into the long-range moves, if Rolland can get some space on Stage 12 he’ll be a top favorite.
Rafal Majka didn’t keep any powder dry on Stage 11, riding all the way to a stage victory, but he looks to be on sharp form right now and could go for another long one here.
Joaquim Rodríguez lost a big chunk of time on Stage 11 and is not even on the fringes of the GC conversation anymore. It’s hard to say what that means for his form. If he’s only a little off of 100%, he could just be saving up for a big mountain push, so don’t count him out on this stage which would seem to suit his skillset.
Adam Yates, Jakob Fuglsang, Rafael Valls, Thibaut Pinot, Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin, Alexis Vuillermoz, Louis Meintjes, and Romain Bardet are others on the very long list of riders whose stage victory chances are boosted by the fact that they’ll probably be given some breathing room to go on the attack from far out on Stage 12.
VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites
1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Pierre Rolland
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 12.
Though it doesn’t have as many hills from start to finish as Stage 11 (a day tailormade for a breakaway that was won by a breakaway rider, Ilnur Zakarin), Stage 12 does have a very hilly finale that should put the puncheurs on alert again for the chance of a stage win.
The first 125 kilometers are pan flat, with both intermediate sprints occurring before the road kicks up. The first climb on the menu is the Cat. 4 Castelnuovo. It’s followed by a few smaller ups and downs and then another flat stretch into the foot of the Cat. 3 Crosara climb, a short (3.7km) but very steep (9.1% average gradient) ascent with particularly vicious lower slopes. After coming back down from the Crosara, the peloton will hit a short but not-insignificant uncategorzied climb to Perarolo, one more descent, and then a short but very steep uphill finish that is rated as a Category 4 climb. The last kilomter has an average gradient of 7.1%, with slopes topping out at 11% in the very last stretch to the line.
The bumpy finale will make this yet another day of Giro d’Italia racing that could favor a breakaway, and with the peloton showing itself completely incapable of doing the necessary work to close down moves up the road, it’s hard to overstate the chances of breakaway attempts in this race. In any case, many of the punchier riders who will be favorites for success on this stage are the types who could get into a long-range move anyway. Whatever the lead group on the road looks like in the last few kilometers, expect to see a few attacks on the final climbs before the finish, which are steep enough to be great launching pads for aggressive riders.
Diego Ulissi has won a stage in this Giro already on a finish that wasn’t even as steep as this. With an 11% gradient at the end of this climb, the stage is perfectly designed for the punchy Italian, who can charge uphill like few others. Ulissi is also capable of getting into a breakaway, or getting involved in a move over one of the climbs that come before the finish.
Philippe Gilbert missed out on a golden opportunity on Stage 11 when his team was unable to cooperate with Orica-GreenEdge to reel in the breakaway move. He tried to solo clear of the bunch but it was far too late to make a difference. This finale suits him perfectly though, so he’ll get another chance, assuming he’s in the lead group on the road at the business end of Stage 12.
Orica-GreenEdge has multiple options here. I’m going to go out on a limb (against what the bookmakers’ might suggest) and say that this might be too steep for Michael Matthews. I think he’d prefer this to flatten out in the final few hundred meters, when instead it only kicks up even more. He’s still a top contender, but Simon Gerrans may be the better rider here. Regardless, it’s hard to say whether GreenEdge will see it that way, and they may throw their weight behind Matthews, which alone would make him dangerous, not even taking his obvious talents into account. Simon Clarke could be another card to play, perhaps best sent up the road earlier in the stage.
Juan José Lobato, like Matthews, will have his eye on besting some of the top climbers on this stage. It’s hard to say how well he’ll handle the gradient. He’s had a nice run so far this year on tougher finishes but nothing this steep. Giovanni Visconti could do very well here too—in fact, the way Movistar has been riding, I’d expect to see multiple riders in dark blue finish highly on this stage. Beñat Intxausti and Andrey Amador have looked strong so far in this Giro d’Italia too.
Fabio Felline is another rider whose performance is a bit hard to predict given the lack of data—he’s only been a main featured rider for Trek for a little while now, and while he’s had great success in similar finales, this is pretty steep. In any case, he should be in the mix.
Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa could certainly be up there as well—this isn’t a very long ascent to the line but coming after a few bumps in the road it will be a bit more difficult. The same is true for Alberto Contador—and don’t be surprised if one of them tries to get clear on one of the earlier climbs.
Stefano Pirazzi, Enrico Battaglin, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Carlos Betancur, Damiano Caruso, and Damiano Cunego are others who could get involved in the action on Stage 12.
VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites
1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Juan José Lobato
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 12 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
The Vuelta’s eleventh stage followed up an eventful time trial with even more drama: Fabio Aru took the stage win in a hard-fought battle among the GC contenders, but the biggest story of the day was the abandonment of Nairo Quintana following another crash. Stage 12, which consists of eight laps of a 20.8 kilometer circuit in and around the town of Logroño, should allow the red jersey hunters to settle down a bit.
Each lap includes the climb of a small, uncategorized hill and then a descent onto a flat stretch where the finish line awaits. Things get a bit technical in the final 5 kilometers of the circuit, with several roundabouts and sweeping turns in store as the road heads toward the center of town, but the final kilometer of each go-round is a flat, straight run to the line. The weather forecast for Stage 12 includes some chance of rain, which could make things a bit hectic on the urban circuit.
A profile like this will make it almost impossible for an early break to go the distance. After several days of GC battles, the sprinters’ teams won’t want to miss this chance for a bunch gallop, and they’ll likely keep a sharp eye on the gap to ensure that their quick men get the finish they want. The sprinters will still have to be on their toes as the day draws near its close, however; it won’t be an easy task to steal one from the fast finishers, but on an urban circuit like this, it’s almost certain that a few enterprising riders will attempt late attacks from the bunch.
With a high likelihood of a bunch sprint for stage honors, Stage 12 should offer another showdown between Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb and FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni. Bouhanni will love the circuit, and the fact that there aren’t any categorized climbs on the menu. Potential bad weather would favor him as well. On this stage likely to go to the pure sprinters, he probably has a slight edge over Degenkolb, but don’t count the German out: their last head-to-head matchup came one day after Degenkolb had crashed, and he’s had some time to recover since then. His powerful leadout boosts his chances. It should be a close battle.
OGE’s Michael Matthews showed his impressive top speed on Stage 8, crossing the line in 2nd behind Bouhanni. He’s highly motivated to show anyone watching that he has what it takes to be in the mix even against the sprinting heavyweights on a flat day.
Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari was 3rd in Stage 2 of this race, and he’ll have another good opportunity to land a good result on the flat Stage 12. Astana’s Andrea Guardini has not yet featured in the group sprints of this Vuelta, but he should be able to get involved here. He has the speed to challenge even Bouhanni and Degenkolb in a bunch kick if he can make it to the final few kilometers in a good position. Cannondale’s Peter Sagan finally showed an interest in contesting a stage victory on Stage 8, where he took 3rd. If he decides to put in the effort here on Stage 12, he’ll be among the favorites in a sprint, especially with some corners to navigate in the run-up to the final straightaway and the potential for bad weather. Matteo Pelucchi, Tom Boonen, Jens Debusschere, Yauheni Hutarovich, Gerald Ciolek, Francesco Lasca, Robert Wagner and Jasper Stuyven are on the long list of outside contenders for the probable sprint finish.
Though it will be very hard to stave off a hungry pack of sprinters, a few of the stronger solo artists in this race will probably try to attack on the last lap and use the twists and turns of the final few kilometers to hold an advantage over the chasers. Watch out for the likes of Tony Martin, Philippe Gilbert, Adam Hansen, and Fabian Cancellara as the peloton re-enters Logroño for the last time on the final lap.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Peter Sagan
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 12, so stay tuned.
