VeloHuman

Tag: Stage 12

  • Tour de France 2014: Stage 12 Preview

    Tour de France 2014: Stage 12 Preview

    Stage 12 Profile

    Stage 12: Bourg-en-Bresse › Saint-Étienne – 185.5 km

    The undulating finale of the Tour’s eleventh stage served as an excellent launching pad for Tony Gallopin to outfox Peter Sagan and a charging pack of fast finishers. Late climbs again await the peloton on Stage 12. The first of two major ascents near the end of the day is a 15.3 kilometer Category 3 climb that averages 3.3%. It’s not the sort of steep wall that the puncheurs will love, but it is long enough to put some of the heavier riders under pressure. It is followed by a fast descent and then a 9.8 kilometer Cat. 4 that averages 2.9%. Again, the gradient itself is not all that demanding, but it will be a long way for the sprinters to travel on an incline, especially if there are teams driving the pace up front. After another descent, things flatten out for the final few kilometers toward the finish.

    The bumpy road to Saint-Étienne will give a breakaway some chance of going the distance on Stage 12, but there are quite a few teams in this Tour de France whose featured sprinters have decent climbing legs. If those teams cooperate, it will be hard for anyone who gets up the road to survive. As such, while the opportunists will certainly put in the effort to make this interesting all the way to the line, the favorites will be the fast finishers with the uphill talent to make it over the late climbs without losing ground to the pack.

    As usual, chief among the more versatile sprinter types is Cannondale’s Peter Sagan. His frustration at being constantly forced to decide between closing down moves on his own or letting them go clear and hoping others will do the chasing is mounting, but Stage 12 may be his best opportunity for victory left in this race. The final climbs aren’t as steep as they were in the eleventh stage, the last descent isn’t as tricky, and there is a longer flat run-in to the line. The race should be a bit easier to control. Still, easier doesn’t mean easy: Cannondale will need some help from other teams to keep the early breakaway and any attacks on the climbs on a short leash, and even if things come together for a sprint, the young Slovakian will probably be facing some stiff competition.

    The list of riders who will hope to rival Sagan if this does comes down to a sprint is headlined by Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb. These late hills will probably too much for the team’s other star fast-man Marcel Kittel, but they has a capable alternative in Degenkolb. Runner-up on Stage 11, he is clearly feeling much better now than he was feeling last week. If he is, indeed, back to full strength, Sagan will have his hands full on Stage 12: Degenkolb at peak form should be able to handle these climbs, and he has been extremely fast this year, coming very close to beating Mark Cavendish twice in the Tour of California, and rather handily defeating Peter Sagan in a sprint in Gent-Wevelgem.

    Orica-GreenEdge has an excellent lineup for the hilly stages, but they are still without a win in this Tour de France. This will be another good opportunity pick up that elusive victory. Simon Gerrans has landed some strong results in the reduced bunch sprints we’ve seen, and Michael Albasini is an excellent alternative with a similar skillset. OGE could try to put one in the break and let the other hang back in the pack to cover both potential scenarios.

    OPQS’s Matteo Trentin continues to deliver impressive performances in the sprints on the hilly days, following up his earlier stage win with a nice 3rd place on Stage 11. He will be strong option for his team here on Stage 12, with the added versatility of being able to jump into the early move if that looks to be the smart decision. Michal Kwiatkowski will, as usual, be another versatile card for the team to play.

    Movistar’s JJ Rojas, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati should enjoy an opportunity to battle a somewhat reduced bunch if this comes to a sprint. Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel, on the other hand, will be put to the limit trying to make it to the line, but it could happen, and it should go without saying that he’ll be a top favorite for a sprint if he’s still in the pack. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare could hold on for a bunch finish, and they will be dangerous if they are there. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, OPQS’s Mark Renshaw, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler have a chance to be in the mix as well.

    Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, Cofidis’s Julien Simon, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, and FDJ’s Arthur Vichot are fast finishers but they’ll have a hard time against the top sprinters. They will have to decide whether to try their luck in the bunch or attempt a long-range attack on Stage 12. It will take a strong group and some tactical riding for a move off the front to take this one from a hungry pack of sprinters. Strong candidates for success who will likely see a long-distance strike as their only chance at a stage win include Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers, Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin, Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Belkin’s Lars Boom and Sep Vanmarcke, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, OPQS’s Tony Martin and Jan Bakelants, and IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Peter Sagan | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Simon Gerrans

    Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 12, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

    -Dane Cash

  • Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 12 Preview

    Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 12 Preview

    Stage 12 Profile

    Stage 12 (ITT): Barbaresco > Barolo – 41.9 km

    Though the early breakaway of Stage 11 was ultimately reeled in on the final climb, most of the GC contenders did not make much of an effort trying to make the finale interesting (Michael Rogers of Tinkoff-Saxo attacked off the front of the pack on the descent and stayed away for the stage victory while the rest of the reduced bunch arrived together). The upcoming individual time trial, likely to have a major impact on the General Classification, is probably to blame for the maglia rosa hunters’ lack of interest in wasting too much energy on Stage 11.

    The Stage 12 profile kicks off with a gentle uphill into the Cat. 4 Boscasso climb, a 3.1 kilometer, 5% average grade ascent. The early bump is followed by a tricky descent (and it could be made trickier by rainy weather), a flat section, and then a short climb, a quick descent, and another short climb to the finish. It’s a medium length chrono at 41.9 km, and it’s got a few rollers that will give the climbers at least a tiny bit of solace, but this looks like a test for the ITT specialists. Bike handling skills will be a major plus.

    Many of the familiar time trialing talents are not on the Giro startlist (Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, and Bradley Wiggins are all absent), but until Stage 11, Movistar’s Adriano Malori seemed set to take on this contest as the big favorite. With back-to-back World Championship ITT Top 10s and his first WorldTour-level victory at Tirreno-Adriatico this year, Malori has jumped into the top echelon of chrono specialists in the sport. Unfortunately, he hit the deck very hard on the road to Savona and got pretty scraped up. That makes it very hard to say how he’ll perform in this time trial. On ability and a lack of other likely candidates, he’ll still be the favorite, but he’ll have a reasonable excuse to take this one easy if he isn’t feeling up to it.

    Behind Malori are several other specialists who are targeting this victory. Malori’s teammate Jonathan Castroviejo will hope to pick up the slack for Movistar. 2014 results have been a mixed bag for him but he has the talent for potential success. Thomas de Gendt of OPQS came in a surprise 3rd behind Froome and Martin in the first ITT of last year’s Tour de France, reminding everyone just how good he can be on his day (though he has a reputation for inconsistency). In the absence of many of the bigger names in the discipline, De Gendt looks like a strong bet. Team Sky sent a squad full of chrono specialists to this race and they’ll hope to come away with some success. Dario Cataldo and Kanstantsin Siutsou have had a lot of success against the clock in their careers. Edvald Boasson Hagen was unable to make much of a dent in Stage 11 despite being tipped by a number of prognosticators as a potential protagonist, but his soloing skills are top-notch and he may decide to give this one a go. It will be interesting to see whether he takes a shot at the day: he’s won WorldTour level ITTs in the past, but in recent Grand Tour chrono stages he has not seemed interested in contending. Orica-GreenEdge has lost a number of its time trialists since the start of this race, but Australian national champ Michael Hepburn and longtime specialist Svein Tuft could deliver decent results. Trek’s Riccardo Zoidl is an up-and-coming talent in the ITT. At just 23, Giant-Shimano’s Tobias Ludviggson could surprise some people. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers went deep to pull off the victory in Stage 11, but he’s got a very strong ITT and may look for more success in a more open field than is normal for a Grand Tour time trial.

    Among the General Classification riders are a few who stand out above the rest, and who will look to gain significant time on their less chrono-inclined rivals. A handful may even challenge for stage supremacy. BMC’s Cadel Evans is the big name at the top. He’s already got a significant time advantage in this race, and as a strong rider against the clock, he should put in a very good ride here. As a note, he was only decent in the Pais Vasco time trial earlier this year, so there is a bit of a question as to whether he’s still at the same top level he once was in this discipline. Strong descending skills will help. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman is another GC name who counts time trialing among his strengths, and who also happens to look very sharp right now. Omega Pharma’s Rigoberto Uran has steadily improved as a time trialist over the past few years, and he showed off some top-notch form against the clock in the ITT at the recent Tour de Romandie. Continued success should be on the menu here. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo is a very interesting case: he is well-known for his climbing prowess, but time trialing was never really one of his strong suits, at least not until the 2013 Vuelta, in which he shocked everyone when he landed 3rd behind Cancellara and Martin in the Stage 11 time trial. This will be a good opportunity to find out whether he really has taken his time trialing up a notch. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort is currently 13th on GC and a definite outsider, but I do expect him to pick up some time on his rivals here. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal sits 15th overall, and he’ll be an intriguing rider to watch: he’s delivered a few strong time trialing performances in the past and he seems to have regained some of his old form this year, but this will be a real test.

    Astana’s Fabio Aru, Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski, and Europcar’s Pierre Rolland may find themselves struggling to limit their losses. It’s hard to predict the performance of Movistar’s Nairo Quintana; he’s not known for being great against the clock, but he has put in some terrific time trials even on flatter parcours in his young career, 2nd to Tony Martin himself in the decisive ITT of the 2013 Vuelta al Pais Vasco. However, he rolled in three and a half minutes down on the first time trial of the 2013 Tour de France when a lot was on the line. He’ll be motivated to make this one of his better days, but he appears to still be suffering from his crash. I think he will turn in a decent performance, but I do expect him to lose some time.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Adriano Malori | 2. Thomas de Gendt | 3. Cadel Evans

    The Stage 13 preview will be up a few hours after the final rider crosses the line on Stage 12. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

    -Dane Cash