Tag: Stage 13

Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Bilbao › Urdax-Dantxarinea – 213.4km

Another day in the Basque Country, another lumpy parcours. The Vuelta’s 13th stage doesn’t have quite the challenge factor that Stage 12 had, but it will still provide opportunities for the attackers. Though the fourth and final categorized climb comes 50km from the finish, there are several uncategorized ascents en route to the line that could see a few sprinters dropped and a few moves launched.

I think the most likely outcome for Stage 13 is a slightly reduced sprint after some late aggressors have been reeled in. As such, I like Gianni Meersman‘s chances. He’s made a career out of strong performances on lumpy days that end in sprints, and this is a great parcours for him.

Fabio Felline was a bit of a disappointment in Stage 12, present for the sprint, but not particularly close to pulling off the win. He’ll have a shot at redemption in Stage 13, and he’ll have the added advantage of being fully capable of jumping into any late attacks that look promising; on the other hand, I’d like to see a bit more from him in the sprints before tabbing him as a top favorite again.

Philippe Gilbert is another candidate with a shot as an attacker or as in a reduced sprint. Ditto Luis León Sánchez.

Nikias Arndt and Kristian Sbaragli are potential contenders if a big enough group gets to the finish but that could be a tough ask. It seems just as likely that a roll of the dice by Zdenek Stybar, Thomas De Gendt, Pello Bilbao, or Jan Bakelants goes the distance.

VeloHuman Stage 13

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Fabio Felline

September 1, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Bourg-Saint-Andéol › La Caverne du Pont-d’Arc – 37.5km (ITT)

After a bizarre Mont Ventoux thriller, I’m expecting something a bit more straightforward Friday in this Tour’s first of two time trial stages.

The 37.5km route is not overly difficult. The two main challenges come at the start and at the end of the day. The road angles upward from the get-go in the range of 5% for 7km. Then things are quite flat before a high-speed, not-that-technical downhill at around 24km. After that, it’s another flat stretch and then a final ascent to the line that starts off steep for a brief moment before easing up.

I see this as a stage for the big engines, and there are plenty in attendance—though for the first time in a long time, there is no clear-cut favorite for a traditional time trial at the Tour.

For me there are as many as six riders who could potentially win the chrono. I’ll start with my (very) prohibitive favorite, Tony Martin. He hasn’t been the dominant TT specialist of old recently, but he also hasn’t had many opportunities to time trial over 20km this season, except in the German nationals, which he won. On this big stage I do expect him to shine. The course suits him well.

Tom Dumoulin is the other rider I put atop my group of six potential winners. Like Martin, he excels in long time trials, and he doesn’t mind a few hills thrown in. He’s obviously on terrific form (his Stage 9 win proved that) so another victory would be no surprise.

Rohan Dennis and Fabian Cancellara should be in the mix as well. It’s been a bit of a quiet Tour for both riders thus far, but they both have the talent to win.

Chris Froome and Richie Porte have not had quiet Tours. Both could be tired from climbing Ventoux at full speed Thursday, but I still think the stage win is a possibility. Froome is being tipped by many for the stage—I personally think Porte is even better in the TT these days, as it’s been a very long time since Froome did much against the clock in a big race, but it’s impossible to know just how Porte is feeling after the crash in Stage 12. He didn’t look great at the finish. If he’s not too hindered by lingering injuries, Porte could win the TT.

Outsiders for the stage win include Vasil Kiryienka, Ion Izagirre, Tejay van Garderen, and Thibaut Pinot.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Tom Dumoulin | 3. Chris Froome

July 15, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Palmanova › Cividale del Friuli › 170km

Stage 13 is a tough one, a day that should shake up the GC a bit even if the finale is flat. The double pairing of Cat. 1 and Cat. 2 climbs probably won’t win anyone the Giro, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see major selection going over the last two ascents.

With two critically important, challenging stages to follow Stage 13, there is a chance the GC team will keep the powder dry Friday, which would give the breakaway a real shot on this profile. I’d say it’s about 50/50, but if the stage does come down to the GC contenders, I see one rider as the clear favorite: Alejandro Valverde. The versatile Spaniard should be in the mix at the head of affairs in the finale, getting into the wheels of his rivals, and if he’s in the lead group battling for the stage win, it’s hard to see anyone beating him in a sprint.

Vincenzo Nibali, with his excellent descending skills, and Rigoberto Urán, surprisingly quick in a flat finish, are other GC names to watch.

Diego Ulissi, Tim Wellens, and Alessandro De Marchi headline the list of riders whose options for victory include a long-range move. We haven’t seen that much from De Marchi yet, but in peak form I like him better for this stage than even Ulissi or Wellens.

Damiano Cunego, Stefano Pirazzi, Carlos Betancur, and perhaps even Stage 10 winner Giulio Ciccone are others on the list of candidates for long-distance success.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Tim Wellens | 3. Diego Ulissi

May 20, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Calatayud › Tarazona – 178km

As the Vuelta gets lumpier and lumpier, we can probably start to expect more and more breakaway victories. Stage 13 is a great place for the long-range hopefuls to get on track for the week ahead.

Things open with a bit of up-and-down before an uphill run-in into a Cat. 3. Officially the climb is only 8.2km but by the time the riders reach the top they will have been ascending for over 18km at a low gradient. After a quick downhill comes a relatively easy Cat. 1, 10.9km at a bit under 5%. From there the road heads downward again for nearly 50km before things flatten out for a short stretch.

The final categorized climb, a Cat. 3 of 8.5km at 4.5%, officially peaks at a little over 30km before the finish. The road still angles upward slightly for a few more kilometers, but then it’s a long downhill run that only evens out inside the final 10km.

There is another small bump that starts with a little under 2.5km left in the stage, but the road flattens out near the flamme rouge for a relatively straightforward finale.

None of the climbs on Stage 13 are particularly difficult, but it’s hard to see the peloton reeling in the early move: the up-and-down profile will make things hard to control, and the stage is too easy to entice the GC teams to contribute to pushing the pace. The sprinters will have a chance on Stage 13, but it seems much more likely that this one will go down to the breakaway specialists.

As such, there are no real “favorites” for the stage, only riders who seem like good candidates for a win from afar.

Europcar is usually pretty adept at getting riders into breakaways, and they have multiple options in the Vuelta. The challenge will be turning opportunities into success, which they haven’t achieved much of this year. On ability, Cyril Gautier should be their top choice on this profile. He’s got good climbing legs and packs some punch for a late escape or a reduced sprint. Still, it’s difficult to predict whether he’ll even try to get in the move at all. Romain Sicard and Jerome Cousin have been very active for Europcar in this Vuelta and they may get the nod to go up the road instead.

Niki Terpstra has tried his luck with a few escape attempts so far in the Vuelta, and this profile should him more than many of the those that remain. He’s not the world’s greatest climber but he’s got plenty of pop and excellent soloing ability. Young Spaniard Carlos Verona is another option for Etixx-QuickStep.

After a rough outing on Stage 11, Movistar is probably looking to get more active in the breakaway game. Giovanni Visconti is an excellent option for this stage, with just the right skillset for the profile, and he’ll be among the favorites if he can get into the breakaway.

Adam Hansen has been a little bit quieter than expected in the breakaway game up to this point in the race, but Stage 13 suits him well. He’d probably prefer a more techincal run-in though.

Alessandro De Marchi has been quiet all season, but he has finally started to show some interest in getting active. He could be BMC’s best option, as these climbs may not be challenging enough to appeal to Darwin Atapuma or Samuel Sánchez.

Caja Rural will almost certainly send someone up the road, but it’s hard to say who it will be. Omar Fraile has been very active off the front sweeping up KOM points but now that he has a big lead in that classification, the team may be more interested in a stage win. Pello Bilbao and José Goncalves, both of whom have looked particularly good this year, are their best options to pull that off.

Miguel Angel Rubio was Colombia’s breakaway man on Stage 12, which could mean someone else makes the attempt on Stage 13. Carlos Quintero has been active so far. Rubén Plaza, who has been riding well since June, and Kristijan Durasek, who does have a bit of speed for a fast finish, give Lampre-Merida a pair of strong options. Stephen Cummings, AG2R’s Rinaldo Nocentini and Blel Kadri, Cannondale-Garmin’s Alex Howes and Ben King, and Sylvain Chavanel are other riders on the list of potential long-range candidates for Stage 13 success.

In the (unlikely) event that this does come down to a sprint, John Degenkolb is the favorite, despite his lack of wins so far, while Tosh Van der Sande, José Joaquín Rojas, Danny Van Poppel, and Kristian Sbaragli will also probably be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Cyril Gautier | 2. Niki Terpstra | 3. José Goncalves

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 13.

September 3, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Muret › Rodez – 198.5km

Joaquim Rodríguez’s Stage 12 win closed out three straight days with late HC-rated climbs, and now the Tour de France transitions to a stretch of slightly less mountainous stages—but that doesn’t mean things will get all that much easier. Stage 13 is a relatively long, hilly day with three categorized climbs (a Cat. 3, a Cat. 4, and a Cat. 4) in the last 70 kilometers. The final official climb comes 30km from the line, but it’s followed by a short uncategorized bump and then a longer one to La Primaube, just 10km from the finish. From there it’s downhill until the final 2.5km, where the road flattens out until 570 meters from the line. Then things kick sharply upward at a 9.6% gradient to the finish. The final drag to the line is not categorized, but it’s the sort of challenge that will serve to dramatically reduce the speed of heavier sprinter-types in the final moments of the stage.

A bumpy parcours late on in the stage and a finale that isn’t all that sprinter-friendly both favor the chances of the early breakaway. A tired peloton, limping along after three brutal days in the Pyrenees, could bid good riddance to the riders up the road. Then again, there aren’t a whole lot of stages for the fast finishers in this race, and that could inspire those teams with more versatile quick men to try to keep this one under control for the uphill sprint at the end of the day. Stage 13 looks to be yet another day where the outcome of the breakaway vs. peloton battle will be extremely tough to predict. In any case, the favorites for success will be punchy finishers with the endurance to still have something in the tank after a long day of racing, with those capable of winning from afar holding an extra advantage over those who will need to stay in the pack to have a shot.

Peter Sagan seems as likely as anyone to win Stage 13, though the nature of the profile makes it hard to call him a “favorite.” The finale is steeper than he’d prefer but the high-gradient stretch is short enough that his impressive finishing kick should outweigh (figuratively) the fact that he’s heavier than the more specialized puncheurs in the race. Sagan is on terrific form at the moment and this stage presents a fine opportunity for him to pick up a victory. He also can’t be ruled out as a possible long-range contender.

This should be an excellent day for Tony Gallopin: hilly with a sting in the tail, but not so mountainous as to bring the GC favorites sailing past on the high gradients. Ignoring other race circumstances, punchy, aggressive Gallopin would look the perfect candidate for a stage win. However, Lotto Soudal may decide that André Greipel has a chance in a potential sprint, even with this gradient (which I think is too steep for him), which could leave Gallopin riding a support role. Moreover, Gallopin’s decent GC position could keep him from getting involved in a potentially stage-winning breakaway. He will still be among the most dangerous riders to watch on Stage 13, but there are factors that may be a bit beyond his control that could hold him back.

Greg Van Avermaet has been in the mix on several stages so far in the 2015 Tour, and has climbed admirably to high placings on days with short steep finishes. This certainly qualifies. With the number of hilly days on tap, Van Avermaet has a great chance of coming away with a victory soon—if he sees this as a good opportunity, he could try to get into an early break, and that makes him especially dangerous.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has also put in several good rides so far, and this bumpy parcours suits him very well. He doesn’t quite have the finishing kick he used to, but he’s got a sharp eye for opportunities to escape the pack, and this is a good profile for such a talent.

Dan Martin will be a top favorite either from a breakaway (and he showed on Stage 11 that he’s not afraid to get up the road) or from the bunch in an uphill sprint. This finale is tailormade to his talents. He’s come close to success several times so far in this race—if he can manage to position himself better on Stage 13 than he has on previous stages, Martin has the explosiveness to take a win. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal could have a shot as well. He’s got more punch than many realize, and has a knack for getting into breakaways at this point in his career.

EQS has several very strong options for the stage. It’s probably too steep for Mark Cavendish, but Zdenek Stybar should thrive on the final climb. Matteo Trentin and even Rigoberto Urán could be in the mix as well. Michal Kwiatkowski, at his best, would love this stage, but after a brutal day in the breakaway, and not on top form, it seems unlikely that Kwiatkowski will be able to mount that much of a challenge for stage honors.

Katusha’s, Joaquim Rodríguez might also be a bit too tired after his Stage 12 win to try another day in the breakaway, but the steep kick to the line does suit the punchy Spaniard.

The Tommy Voeckler of 2015 is a far cry from the Tommy Voeckler of 2012, but the Stage 13 profile suits him nevertheless. Compatriot Sylvain Chavanel has been actively battling to get into the breakaway so far in the 2015 Tour, and could look to get aggressive on here. This intermediate stage looks good for his skillset. Another Frenchman, the explosive Alexis Vuillermoz, is deadly on the high gradients and capable of getting into a move if he sees the opportunity. He’d probably prefer a longer drag to the line, but will still be one to watch on Stage 13.

John Degenkolb has flashed impressive ability even on the very steep stuff during his career, but this will be a bigger challenge than he’d prefer, and for him to have any chance at winning, the stage will have to come down to a sprint, which isn’t even close to a given. He’s still got to be among the favorites in that scenario, but it’s going to be a tough ask for the versatile German. Bryan Coquard, Michael Matthews, Davide Cimolai, and Alexander Kristoff are other versatile fast finishers whose chances will rely on this stage coming down to a sprint from the peloton, though should that happen, they’ll also have to fight with a number of aforementioned puncheurs and the more explosive GC types, with Alejandro Valverde far and away the biggest name in that department. In an uphill bunch kick, expect the Flèche Wallonne winner to shine. Few riders on this startlist are as well-suited to a finish like this.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Greg Van Avermaet | 3. Tony Gallopin

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 13.

-Dane Cash

July 16, 2015
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Belorado › Obregón. Parque de Cabárceno – 152.2 km

Following a very flat Stage 12 that, unsurprisingly, ended in a sprint (won by John Degenkolb), the Vuelta’s thirteenth stage will be a more unpredictable affair. The Stage 13 parcours is a tale of two halves. The opening 95 kilometers of racing take place on mostly flat, mostly straight roads. After the first intermediate sprint near the midpoint of the stage, however, the road begins to twist and turn through a stretch of tough hills. First on tap is a Cat. 3, with a fast descent to follow, and then another Cat. 3 and another fast descent, and then a tough Category 2 and yet another downhill. Even after the descent from the Cat. 2, it is still an undulating journey to the line, with a few uncategorized challenges yet to come. The finish is a lumpy affair: at 2.5 km to go, the road kicks up dramatically for a short but steep (a few sections push 10%) climb, which will be an attractive potential launching pad for the punchier riders. Then comes a series of short ups and downs before things flatten out for the final hundred meters of straightaway.

The Stage 13 profile is one of the most breakaway-friendly in this race. Given the tough finish, the teams of the pure sprinters won’t be all that motivated to keep the early move in check, and even if the pack does try to maintain control of the day, the up-and-down, winding roads on the second half of the stage won’t make it easy. The opportunists, especially those with some punch or at least decent climbing legs and a nice finishing kick for the final straightaway, will be licking their lips at this opportunity to pick up a Grand Tour stage win.

No single rider qualifies as the favorite in a stage like this, but there is a very long list of riders who could shine. BMC’s Philippe Gilbert is certainly one of them: the late rise is a perfect launching pad for the uphill charger, and he could look to get into the breakaway to contest the victory after a long day up the road. If Gilbert is in the lead group as the day nears its conclusion, whether that lead group is the main bunch or a small breakaway contingent, he’ll be hard to beat in the final few kilometers. His teammate Cadel Evans can’t be counted out either: with the climbing legs to handle the undulating profile and a nice finishing kick, and sitting more than 30 minutes behind on GC, Evans could try something from afar on Stage 13.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is another strong finisher who isn’t afraid to get into the long-range moves. After starting the Vuelta in domestique mode while riding himself back into form, he’s now showing much more interest in battling for stage wins. He won’t be allowed into the day’s break without a fight, but if he is in the move he’ll be a top favorite; if he isn’t, and if things do come back together, he’ll be a top favorite in that scenario as well. His teammate Alessandro De Marchi is an elite breakaway specialist, and though he doesn’t have the same punchy style as Sagan, he is a tough rider who handles this sort of climbing particularly well. He has already taken one stage in this race. Oscar Gatto is yet another Cannondale rider with a chance to go for a long one here.

Ryder Hesjedal is on the hunt for stage wins after falling out of GC contention in this Vuelta, and he does have a bit more explosiveness than many realize. He will be a top contender if he’s in the early break. Teammate Nathan Haas is very strong on a profile like this, and he knows how to play the breakaway game; he’s another good option for Garmin-Sharp.

Luis Leon Sanchez has not been much of a factor in the higher-profile races this season, but Stage 13 does have a parcours that will suit him very nicely. A strong soloist who can climb and sprint quite well, he will be dangerous if he can get into the day’s breakaway. Caja Rural teammate Amets Txurruka is always dangerous on a lumpy profile as well.

Trek has an impressive collection of riders who could be in the mix from afar in a hilly stage like this with Julian Arredondo, Bob Jungels, Fabio Felline, and Fabian Cancellara all potential protagonists here. Katusha’s Alexandr Kolobnev and Giampaolo Caruso, Lampre-Merida’s Damiano Cunego, OGE’s Adam Yates, Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Astana’s Alexey Lutsenko, and OPQS’s Pieter Serry and Tony Martin are others who will be well-suited to breakaway success on Stage 13.

If the peloton does reel in the day’s breakaway before the finish line, a select few sprinters with good climbing legs and the more explosive GC riders will join the list of potential protagonists. In that scenario, Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge will be the top favorite, having put his impressive climbing form on display in his Stage 3 victory. Belkin’s Paul Martens might have a chance of holding on for a potential sprint. John Degenkolb of Giant-Shimano won’t have an easy time surviving the late climbs, but it’s not out of the question that he makes it to the last hundred meters of flat to contest a sprint. Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin, Katusha’s Daniel Moreno and Joaquim Rodriguez, BMC’s Samuel Sanchez, Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, Belkin’s Robert Gesink (who possesses an underrated finishing kick), Astana’s Fabio Aru, and race leader Alberto Contador of Tinkoff-Saxo will also be contenders if Stage 13 is contested by the main pack.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Philippe Gilbert | 2. Michael Matthews | 3. Peter Sagan

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 13, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 4, 2014