Tag: Stage 14

Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Urdax-Dantxarinea › Aubisque – 196.1km

Saturday’s stage offers plenty of opportunities for the GC heavyweights and stagehunters alike to make moves. After a flat first 50km, it’s a brutal run to the line, with three hard Cat. 1s en route to an hors categorie finish.

The final ascent, to Aubisque, is relatively steady, 16.5km at 7.1%, with a few steeper stretches. With that challenge to close out a day with three other tough climbs, stage 14 is all about uphill endurance.

The lumpy profile had me thinking breakaway at the start of this week, but now I’m not so sure. After the peloton gave the early break a half hour advantage in Stage 13, I can see a strong case for the well-rested GC contenders battling it out for Stage 14 honors. I’d say it’s 50/50 now.

Since there are only a few potential stage winners that really stand out among the red jersey hopefuls, I’ll start there. This climb suits the Grand Tour stars quite well, so I’m expecting a big showdown between Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome. They’re neck and neck right now, but if I had to pick one over the other for this stage going in, I suppose I’d pick Froome. If he can win on Peña Cabarga, which I think suits him less, he can win here. Of course, so can Quintana.

Speaking of Sky and Movistar, Leopold König and Alejandro Valverde, though they may be lieutenants on their respective teams, could steal the show here given how well they’ve been riding.

Esteban Chaves tried his luck in Stage 11 and it didn’t pan out, but I think he’s got another nice chance here. Alberto Contador seems likely to attack, as he’s been pretty active so far, so he’s worth watching too, though I don’t know that he’s capable of holding off a motivated Froome or Quintana.

The list of potential breakaway winners is long as usual, but I especially like Rubén Fernandez, Robert Gesink, Tejay van Garderen, Joe Dombrowski, Pierre Rolland, Kenny Elissonde, Mathias Frank, Darwin Atapuma, Pierre Latour, and Thomas De Gendt.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Rubén Fernandez

September 3, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Montélimar › Villars-les-Dombes Parc des Oiseaux – 208.5km

On the heels of two decisive days for the General Classification comes a stage set for the sprinters. There are several small climbs in the profile, but only three of them are categorized, and they’re Cat. 4s at that. Plus, the final 50km are flat. It will take a bungling by the sprinter’s teams to let this stage get away.

I don’t have too many new things to say about the sprinting matchup, which, for me, always comes down to a three-way contest. Mark Cavendish has proven the most successful so far in this race. Marcel Kittel has the speed to beat anyone, and André Greipel throughout his career has shown a tendency to have one or two very impressive stages in his legs per grand tour.

I’ll go with Cav slightly ahead of Kittel here after two tough stages. He’s probably a bit stronger in a messy sprint. I’m not sure that the peloton will be particularly orderly given the last two days of racing and that probably favors Cav. It also disfavors Greipel, for that matter.

Beyond the big three it’s the usual suspects as fringe contenders: Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, Alexander Kristoff, Sam Bennett, and Dylan Groenewegen are riders to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Marcel Kittel | 3. André Greipel

July 16, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Alpago › Corvara – 210km

It’s been one stagehunter-focused day after another at the Giro d’Italia so far, but that changes Saturday in Stage 14, a day that should provide a critical GC showdown.

The profile speaks for itself. The six categorized climbs are hard and relentless, with plenty of tricky descending thrown in for good measure.

Of particular note is the first ascent. The Cat. 1 Passo Pordoi is officially only 9.25km at 6.9%, but the peloton must climb for over 60km to even get to that point. It’s essentially a 70km climb with a gradient of a little under 3%—and that’s just to kick off the action.

After a few more tough climbs comes the Passo Giau, nearly 10km at over 9%. That’s steep enough to spur plenty of GC action. The Cat. 2 that follows is no joke either, and then comes a descent into the finale, where a short but very steep uncategorized ascent leads into a gentler uphill finish.

I expect the General Classification to blow apart on this stage. It’s going to find riders out, and the gaps to any stragglers could be huge. That said, the stage doesn’t finish atop a mountain, which could give a small group a chance to come home together.

The breakaway has a chance on this hard-to-control day, but I don’t see any one long-range specialist as a big favorite. I do see two key names among the pink jersey hopefuls, however, so I’ll start there.

To me, this stage has Vincenzo Nibali written all over it. He isn’t just the best climber in the race (when at peak form at least), he’s also among the best descenders. That will be hugely important on a stage with so many downhill sections to navigate. The race is still more open than most people would have expected but I know, so it’s time for Nibali to take control of the GC, and this is the perfect opportunity to do it.

Alejandro Valverde could give him a run for his money. The Spaniard is also a great descender, and he has Nibali beat in a sprint if they both come to the line together. Morever, Movistar has looked very impressive in this race. They can put a lot of pressure on with Andrey Amador leading the race and Valverde lurking, and they have several riders who can jump into the breakaway to provide support in the finale as well.

Esteban Chaves and Steven Kruijswijk have both been climbing very well and could be involved here as well. Ilnur Zakarin could stand to improve as a descender but he’s so good when he’s in form that he can’t be overlooked either. Rafal Majka has been quiet so far in the race but I think he could be very dangerous in this stage too.

It’s hard to say who might get involved if this is a day for the breakaway, especially since many of the top picks just spent a tough day out front in Stage 13. Giovanni Visconti and Mikel Nieve are both candidates for success here. So is Damiano Cunego. Stefano Pirazzi has looked okay so far in the Giro but his Bardiani-CSF teammate Giulio Ciccone may be a better bet.

Alessandro De Marchi, Davide Formolo, and Sebastian Henao are others with long-range potential in Stage 14.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Esteban Chaves

May 21, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Vitoria › Alto Campoo – 215km

After two comparatively easy days, the Vuelta a España peloton returns to the mountains for Stage 14.

It’s a long one at 215 total kilometers, and though it opens with 80km without categorized climbs, things get pretty tricky after that.

At around kilometer 80 the road angles upward gently for 27 long kilometers into the foot of the first categorized climb of the stage, the Cat. 3 Puerto Estacas de Trueba. Officially the climb is only 11km at 2.9%, but taken with the uphill stretch prior to the categorized section it’s nearly 40km of climbing. The average gradient across that entire span may be less than 2% but that is still a very long time to be going upward.

The Cat. 3 summit is followed by a fast descent into the foot of a Cat. 1, the 11.5km Puerto del Escudo. The average gradient of 6.4% doesn’t really tell the whole story—the first 4km are not very steep but then the road kicks into the double digits for several prolonged stretches.

From the top of the Cat. 1 the riders will take a very brief downhill and then a long flat stretch before starting the final climb, the special-category 18km Alto Campoo, which has an average gradient of 5.5%. Again, the early slopes are relatively easy but the climb gets harder as it goes on.

Stage 14 is very long, and the three categorized climbs will be tough enough to put plenty of hurt into the legs. The profile, as with any mountainous profile, will give the breakaway a chance, especially if the GC riders are less inclined to ride a hard tempo with two more mountain stages ahead. On the other hand, the pace in the pack is likely to pick up on that long late flat section in preparation for a long final climb, which could doom a move up the road. With a few stages that could appeal more to the breakaway coming up, some long-range specialists could opt to keep the powder dry.

Among the GC riders in the race, Fabio Aru looks the strongest right now, and his team packs serious punch. If Aru wants to gain time on his rivals, he should be able to pull it off, as he’s just looked that good so far. However, with the overall victory very much in his reach, Aru could be focused entirely on the two riders within a minute of his lead, and that could open the door for others.

Rafal Majka has looked strong on every summit finish of the Vuelta so far. He’s currently sitting 4th overall, and while his deficit to Aru is not so great that Astana will just let him get up the road without a thought, he may be able to land an attack if there is any hesitation while Aru watches those closer to his lead. This is a great finishing climb for Majka, who might be just a bit behind some of the top GC men on the extreme gradients, but who is excellent in a sustained attack from a few kilometers out.

Joaquím Rodríguez needs to get moving if he wants to have a chance at winning the overall Vuelta title. Currently 2nd overall, this may be the best chance he’s going to get at a Grand Tour victory for the rest of his career. He has looked strong so far, though not dominant. He’s the most explosive rider within striking distance of the overall title, though, and if he can team up with Daniel Moreno to launch a move on this final climb, he’s got a shot at stage success.

Esteban Chaves, a bit further down on GC now, should have plenty of freedom to go hunting for another stage win. Alejandro Valverde has not looked at his best in the past few stages, but if he can recover some strength, he’s an obvious candidate for stage success now that he, too, is less of a GC threat. Movistar will want to do everything possible to get another stage win out of the Vuelta with sickness laying Nairo Quintana low.

Mikel Nieve is Sky’s best hope of coming away from the Vuelta with a result and he should get some breathing room. This climb suits him well.

It’s going to take a strong climber to win this stage from a breakaway, but there are a few good candidates for a successful long-range attack on Stage 14. Rodolfo Torres, Fabio Duarte, Giovanni Visconti, Andrey Amador, Vasil Kiryienka, and Darwin Atapuma are among the riders who could have a chance in that scenario.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Rafal Majka | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 14.

September 4, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Rodez › Mende – 178.5km

Greg Van Avermaet snagged a hilltop victory in the Tour’s 13th stage, and more hills await on Stage 14. The day opens with 44 kilometers of roads that slope gently upward, with a short Cat. 4 climb along the way. Then comes a fast descent into a very long (about 80 kilometers) stretch of flat roads, which could see the peloton taking a relatively leisurely approach after several tough days on the bike. With about 40km to go in the stage, things get bumpy again. First comes the Cat. 2 Côte de Sauveterre, 9km at 6%. After the downhill and then a short flat section comes the Cat. 4 Côte de Chabrits, followed by another downhill into the final climb. The Cat. 2 Côte de la Croix Neuve, 3km at 10.1%, is short but extremely challenging test.

Before the riders reach the Stage 14 finish line in Mende, they’ll have to overcome the steep Côte de la Croix Neuve. Anyone feeling a bit below 100% will be found out quickly on the double-digit gradient.

It’s steep throughout, especially near the midway point. From the top of the climb it’s about 1.5km of flat to the finish, with a sharp right-hander and then a hard left on the way to the line.

Stage 14 will be yet another breakaway-friendly stage—an up-and-down finale and a late climb that is far too hard for the sprinters are typically good ingredients for a successful long-range move. Still, this final climb might even be hard enough to inspire the GC teams to set up a high pace to set up a late battle. If the pack fights it out for the win, only the strongest climbers will be able to survive the Côte de la Croix Neuve to be in the mix for a stage win via either a move on the steep stuff or a very reduced sprint. The last time the Tour finished here, Joaquim Rodríguez, Alberto Contador, and Alexandre Vinokourov were the first three riders across the line. The potential breakaway scenario (which looks to be about a 50/50 proposition) will give the less Alpine-inclined riders a better shot at stage success, but strong climbing legs will still be very important on a final climb with an average gradient over 10%.

Joaquim Rodríguez will be among the top favorites in this explosive finale if he’s in the lead group, and the fact that he’s well behind on GC and now potentially in the hunt for breakaway wins makes him all the more dangerous. The profile of the majority of the stage (the relatively easy first 140 kilometers, that is) isn’t one that stands out as a likely jumping off point for a Purito breakaway, however, so it’s not a given that he’ll get up the road. He’s a favorite, but there are so many other factors at play on this stage besides the puncheur-friendly finish that make it impossible to name anyone a no-doubt contender.

Given his performances so far, Alexis Vuillermoz will be a rider to watch closely on Stage 14. The extreme gradient of the final climb suits him very well, and he’s especially dangerous given his ability to get up the road, as he’s not a GC threat. Teammates Romain Bardet and Jan Bakelants might be hoping to get involved too.

Dan Martin did not perform as well as expected on Stage 13 but he could bounce back for a bid at Stage 14 success. The finale is probably a bit hard for him against the top GC favorites but he’ll have a shot from the break. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal will likely be on the lookout for opportunities to get into the breakaway mix as well.

Pierre Rolland tends to target stages with bumpier profiles throughout for his long-range moves, but a finale with plenty of launching pads for a classic Rolland attack make him impossible to count out. Compatriot and Europcar teammate Thomas Voeckler will also have a shot if he can get into the day’s breakaway.

Michal Kwiatkowski, Adam Yates, Rafael Valls, Jakob Fuglsang, Rafal Majka, and Julián Arredondo are other strong long-range candidates for Stage 14.

Of the riders whose stage hopes rest within the pack, Alejandro Valverde is certainly among the favorites—the steep late climb will drop all the non-elite ascenders from contention, and the flat finish will give Valverde a chance to use his top-notch sprint. His biggest obstacle will be reining in the inevitable attacks from his rivals. This may be only a Cat. 2, but it’s steep enough that it could spur Chris Froome into action—he was very strong on the Mur de Huy and this longer trip up suits him even more. Despite his firm hold on the yellow jersey, Froome has not seemed particularly interested in allowing the other riders at the top of the GC leaderboard opportunities to shorten the gap. Valverde’s teammate Nairo Quintana and the always dangerous Alberto Contador will also be in the mix if this comes down a GC battle.

Geraint Thomas, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Tony Gallopin, and Greg Van Avermaet (who is climbing better than ever) will be hoping to hold on on the steep stuff for a potential reduced sprint on the short section of flat that precedes the finish line. The Côte de Sauveterre is probably too hard for Peter Sagan, but don’t count him out entirely—despite his inability to win a stage so far in the Tour, he’s on great form at the moment.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodríguez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Chris Froome

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 14.

-Dane Cash

July 17, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Treviso › Valdobbiadene – 59.4kkm

Sacha Modolo’s victory on Stage 13 was not too surprising, but the carnage near the finish that dropped Alberto Contador (slightly) and Richie Porte (significantly) down the GC leaderboard was. Two weeks into the Giro d’Italia, there have been several days with major GC consequences that didn’t seem likely to have much of an effect on the overall race at first. Nevertheless, Stage 14 could shake things up more than any of those days have so far.

At nearly 60km, this is one long race against the clock. The profile could be split into two halves. The first 30km of the stage are quite flat, and will favor the larger engines in the peloton. The second half of the stage is a bit hillier. Things start off with a roughly 5km climb at an approximately 4% average gradient. Then comes a descent and another flat stretch, before another ascent into a rolling final few kilometers.

The sheer length of this parcours, and the lack of any serious climbs (especially in the first 30km) will put the ITT powerhouses in their element.

The Giro GC conversation happens to have several top all-rounders with elite time trialing skills who should thrive even on the flats, and in the absence of chrono specialists at the level of a Tony Martin or a Tom Domoulin, this stage is likely to come down to the pink jersey hunters.

Richie Porte is certainly among the favorites, given his excellent time trialing skills. Two days ago, I would have named him the heavy favorite here. However, both his morale and his body (his knee, in particular) appeared to be affected by the Stage 13 crash. 60km is a long time to be in a very specific position, and if Porte isn’t feeling great, or isn’t feeling particularly motivated now that he’s so far off track in the GC conversation, he could easily falter. It’s very hard to tell just how he’ll do. If he’s at or near his best in spite of his recent troubles, he should win.

Rigoberto Urán won last year’s Giro time trial, and he’s developed into an impressive chrono talent over the last few years. However, his form has not been at quite the level he probably hoped for in this race, and he recently crashed. Just as is the case with Porte, it’s hard to say how that will affect his chances, but judging from the riding he’s done since going down on Stage 12, I don’t think his fall had that much of an effect on him, and I do think that he’s been completely focused on this opportunity since the start of the race, so I’d imagine he’ll do pretty well here in Stage 14.

Alberto Contador has been a strong time trialist for a while, but he’s been stellar in the ITTs over the past 12 months or so. It’s an area of his game that may have been overlooked. In multiple recent face-offs that he’s had with Chris Froome in which most expected the Briton to put time into the Spaniard, Contador has come out on top. Unfortunately from a prognostication standpoint, Contador has taken a physical beating in this Giro, crashing multiple times. If he can’t position himself comfortably on the bike for the long period of time required in this ITT, he could suffer. Contador’s a fighter, though, and he can ride through pain better than most, so I think we can expect a strong ride.

Fabio Aru will probably lose time to a few of his rivals here, but his teammate Dario Cataldo almost certainly will not, and could challenge for the Stage 14 win, as might Tanel Kangert. Richie Porte’s Sky teammates Leopold König and Vasil Kiryienka, Alberto Contador’s Tinkoff-Saxo teammate Michael Rogers, Movistar’s Andrey Amador, Ion Izagirre, and Giovanni Visconti, Kristoff Vandewalle, Luke Durbridge, Patrick Gretsch, Sylvain Chavanel, and Ilnur Zakarin are other riders to watch in this very long race against the clock.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Richie Porte | 2. Rigoberto Urán | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 14 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 23, 2015