Tag: Stage 14

Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Santander › La Camperona. Valle de Sabero – 200.8 km

Stage 13, won by Dani Navarro, saw a skirmish among the GC riders in its final few kilometers, but the impending fourteenth stage of the Vuelta will likely be an intense battle among the top overall contenders of this race. The uphill challenges on Stage 14 are daunting. Things get started with 70 kilometers of mostly gentle roads before the Cat. 2 Collada de la Hoz kicks off the day’s categorized climbing. After cresting that ascent and then riding a tricky downhill, the peloton will take on approximately twenty kilometers of false flat at a slight incline before reaching the bottom of the Puerto de San Glorio, 20.9 kilometers long at a 5.8% average grade. There are sure to be some tired legs in the pack once they reach the top after over forty kilometers going uphill, but there will still be challenges yet to come on the day. Following a fast descent comes a long stretch of mostly flat roads before the final test. After 192.5 kilometers in the saddle, the peloton will reach the foot of La Camperona, a vicious 8.3 kilometer climb whose average gradient of 7.5% doesn’t really tell the whole story. Things start out relatively easy, but with around 2 kilometers to go, the road kicks up sharply, and it stays in the 15% range, touching well over 20% at points, until the final hundred meters or so, where things ease off to be only a little under 9% in the run to the line.

A profile like this will be absolutely brutal for all but the most lightweight climbing specialists. The GC contenders will be locked in on the final ascent, knowing that a bad day could lead to serious losses on such a steep climb (especially after some hard uphill riding earlier in the day). Stage 14 is likely to end in a major showdown for the red jersey hunters. Whether or not they are riding for stage honors will depend on how they play the run-in to La Camperona; if the pace is kept high over the flat section that precedes the final climb, with riders jostling for position as the slopes approach, the morning break will be doomed. However, there are some tough mountain days to come in the days ahead, which could lead to enough hesitation in the pack that if a truly top-notch climber is up the road, he might have a chance.

The top favorite to shine on this profile is Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez, the peloton’s premier uphill charger. He has put in attacks here and there in this race, but nothing has really stuck so far. This time, the parcours is perfect, and he needs to land a blow soon or he’ll have run out of opportunities to claw back time from those ahead of him on the leaderboard. He has the also explosive Daniel Moreno as an elite second.

Race leader Alberto Contador has been up to every challenge thrown his way in this race so far, and he should continue to shine here. His biggest weakness is his lack of team support, but he may be strong enough for that not to matter. He’s not the type to rest on his laurels (or his current race lead), and if he sees an opportunity to pick up more time on his rivals, he will.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is very dangerous on the extreme gradients, and he’s within striking distance of the overall lead. A strong ride seems likely on Stage 14, but he needs to get more aggressive in this race if he wants to move up to that coveted first spot in the General Classification.

Astana’s Fabio Aru took the eleventh stage of the race with a perfectly timed attack as the finish line approached, and he is still far enough back on GC that the riders at the very top of the leaderboard might give him some leeway if he tries to go on the move again. He has the skillset to achieve more success here. Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin is in a similar boat, and he’s shown with repeated attempts to get away on the steep stuff that he’s highly motivated to get results on these climbs.

Robert Gesink, who looked strong in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to get clear of the GC bunch on Stage 11, Samuel Sanchez, Stage 13 winner Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are other riders in the GC conversation who could enjoy a bit of freedom and potentially success if they attempt to get clear on the last climb. Chris Froome, who has at times looked very strong, and at times looked to be lacking something in this race, will be put to the test on this gradient; at his best he’d be a top candidate for success, but there won’t be anywhere to hide if he’s not feeling in peak condition when the road shoots skyward on Stage 14. Teammate Mikel Nieve could look to get something of his own if Sky decides to set him loose.

If the pack does put in the effort to keep the breakaway on a tight leash early in the day, it will be very hard for anyone up the road to stay clear all the way to the top of the final climb, but should the GC contenders spend the stage looking at each other instead of worrying about the break, it’s possible that a strong uphill talent could hold out for victory here. Trek’s Julian Arredondo, Garmin-Sharp’s Ryder Hesjedal, Astana’s Mikel Landa, OGE’s Esteban Chaves and Adam Yates, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec, Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, and Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam are on the list of strong-climbing riders who might be able to succeed from the morning breakaway; alternatively, some of the aforementioned group could look to put in a dig a bit closer to the finish line, still benefitting from being far enough out of GC contention that they might be given some breathing room.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 14, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 5, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Grenoble › Risoul – 177 km

Vincenzo Nibali passed the Tour’s first high-mountain test with flying colors in the thirteenth stage of the race. The yellow jersey wearer and the rest of the peloton will take on another day of serious uphill challenges on Stage 14. At 177 kilometers, the journey from Grenoble to Risoul is not a particularly long one, but the riders will be either charging up steep Alpine slopes or zooming down them all day long. The pack starts climbing up a steady (though uncategorized) gradient almost immediately once the racing begins. Things flatten out a bit for the intermediate sprint point, but then the road kicks back up for will seem like an eternity: the Category 1 Col du Lautaret is not all that steep at 3.9%, but 34 km is a very, very long time to spend traveling skyward. When the riders finally reach the top, they will embark on a 30 kilometer descent to the foot of the Col d’Izoard, an HC-rated challenge of 19 km at a 6% average grade. The Col d’Izoard starts out at low gradients, but the second half of the climb is much steeper than the first, and anyone on a bad day is likely to be found out as things get harder after the midway point. From the summit, it’s a high-speed descent to the bottom of the day’s final test, the Cat. 1, 12.6 kilometer climb to Risoul. It’s a steady incline all the way up, but after so many long ascents it’s going to be an exhausting trip to the finish line.

There a quite a few KOM points on offer here in the fourteenth stage of the Tour de France, and with such an up and down profile that will make it difficult for any one team to control the race, the climbing specialists who are out of GC contention will see a golden opportunity to go off the front in search of glory. The GC men, on the other hand, are coming off of a very difficult day of racing, and might be content to let others contest the victory. The morning breakaway has a good chance of going the distance on Stage 14.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez did not get into the Stage 13 break, and when the road started to go up towards the finish, he quickly fell back and took the ascent at his own pace. He should have a bit more energy for Stage 14 than a number of other uphill specialists who poured everything into the Chamrousse climb, and he obviously has more talent than almost anyone else as well. With so many KOM points available here, Purito will likely be very aggressive trying to get ahead, and the early incline will give him an advantage trying to get into the break if he wants to go for this from afar. As difficult as it is to predict which riders will make it out front on a day like this, Joaquim Rodriguez is my top favorite for Stage 14. Teammates Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are other riders to watch.

Continuing in the vein of potential long-distance candidates for success: Mikel Nieve is an excellent climber and a keen opportunist, and he is in terrific shape right now. His team has suddenly found itself out of GC contention after Richie Porte’s very bad day on Stage 13, and now Sky will probably be looking to get something out of this Tour de France with a long-distance strike in the mountains. Geraint Thomas has been climbing quite well, too, and he may be another potential aggressor here.

Tinkoff-Saxo has gone in to full stagehunting mode and they came very close with Rafal Majka on Stage 13. They’ll have another shot at it on Stage 14, and they will be trying to get Majka, Nicolas Roche, or Michael Rogers into the early move. All three of them are strong contenders, and if any one of them makes it into the day’s breakaway, he will be a favorite for stage victory.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon stayed quiet on the road to Chamrousse. The energy he saved there, coupled with a skillset well-suited for this profile, could see him in the mix. Teammate Blel Kadri could also give this a go. Trek’s Frank Schleck and Haimar Zubeldia will be coming off a day of very hard effort, but they look strong at the moment, and they are far enough back in the General Classification that they’ll likely be allowed to slip away. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is just ahead of Zubeldia on GC and could also have an aggressive gameplan in mind for Stage 14, though he isn’t at his best right now following a tough Giro campaign. Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi and Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu are other candidates to try a long-range move.

Leopold Konig of NetApp-Endura looked very strong on Stage 13, coming in 3rd on the day and riding himself into the GC Top 10. He may now be just a bit too close to the GC heavyweights to be given a lot of freedom to get out front, but if he is allowed some space, he’ll be a dangerous contender. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam is in a similar position: a strong ride to the Chamrousse finish line put him within sight of the Top 10 overall, and it’s tough to say whether he’d be allowed off the front if he wants to make a bid for glory on Stage 14. Also hovering around the fringes of the Top 10 is Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS. He looked to be in serious difficulty at the foot of the final climb on Stage 13, but he rode his own steady pace up to the top and ultimately finished only about 4 minutes down. He has already shown a willingness to go on the attack in this race, and he might try again here.

Should the pack ultimately sweep up the day’s early breakers on Stage 14, it’s hard to see past Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali as the top favorite once again. He is simply the strongest climber in the race. With Tanel Kangert, Michele Scarponi, and Jakob Fuglsang (if he is not too badly hurt following a crash) at his side, the shark is unstoppable when the road goes up.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is his closest rival on a stage like this. Should Nibali fail to drop him on the final climb, he has the sprint to cross the line first.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot looks very sharp at the moment and he’ll hope to gain more time on his rival for both the podium and the white jersey, Romain Bardet. There is a lot of descending on the docket on Stage 14, so Pinot’s confidence could be put to the test. Speaking of Bardet, he has been steady throughout this race, as has teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud, and they should continue to be a top-notch pairing on this tough day in the mountains.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen should like the look of the final climb, which favors those who can turn a steady pace. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen van den Broeck have both been improving. A few minutes down on Nibali on GC, any one of this trio might have a bit of freedom to strike for glory on the ascent to Risoul.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3 Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 14, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 18, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Aglie > Oropa – 164 km

There have been a few hills along the Giro route so far, several major crashes with GC implications, and a crucial individual time trial, but organizers waited until the fourteenth stage of the race to challenge the maglia rosa hunters with serious climbs. The GC men enjoyed a relatively easy day in the saddle on Stage 13 (a short, flat stage that somehow went to a breakaway thanks to a lack of cooperation among the sprinters’ teams), and they should be charged and ready for action.

Stage 14 is not a particularly long one but it involves a lot of uphill mileage. After some early bumps, the peloton will reach the foot of Category 1 Alpe Noveis a little over 85 kilometers in. It’s a tough ascent, averaging 7.9% over 9 kilometers but with a nasty midsection that jumps up over 11% for about 4 km. It’s followed by a very fast descent that runs right into the bottom of the Bielmonte climb, a long Cat. 2 that averages 5.6% for 18.4 kilometers. It may be a bit too far from the finish for much GC action, but it will certainly wear down the legs. Another long descent leads to the town of Biella and the foot of the final ascent to the Oropa Sanctuary, a Category 1 11.8 kilometer climb that averages 6.2%.

With so many ups and downs, a finish that is steep but not so steep as to guarantee huge gaps, and many difficult days to come, Stage 14 could see a non-GC threat ride away for victory. Trek’s Julian Arredondo has established himself as one of the strongest climbers in the race, and he’s gunning for mountain points. The final climb has a few high-gradient sections that will allow him to attack from whatever group he is in. One potential obstacle for Arredondo will be the fast descending required over much of the stage; the tiny climber isn’t known for his descending skills. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, who showed an interest in a breakaway victory on Stage 11, and Michael Rogers, who showed off his descending skills on the way to a win that day, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela’s Diego Rosa, Colombia’s Fabio Duarte and Robinson Chalapud, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi and Francesco Bongiorno, and Katusha’s Daniel Moreno are other potential protagonists who could be allowed up the road, in an early break or with a late move. Fair warning: these same names will likely be a common theme in the “if a breakaway takes it” sections of the next several mountain stage previews!

We’ve been waiting for GC contenders to actually show an interest in lighting up the race, and a few names stand out as potential aggressors on Stage 14. The time trials and various mishaps have already opened significant time gaps on the leaderboard, which could incite the kinds of all-out attacks and high speed chases from the bunch that will cut into the chances of the breakers. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo is a favorite. He’s aggressive, his team is willing to work very hard on the slopes for him, and he looks strong right now: for a non-specialist in the time trial, he put in a fine performance in the ITT, which suggests that he is in great shape. He has the strongest balance of ability, form, and motivation to shoot upward on the final climb, and that combination could be enough to overcome even a strong breakaway group for stage honors. Pink jersey wearer Rigoberto Uran certainly has the ability and form, but now that he’s in the driver’s seat, he may let others do the attacking. Still, everyone is eyeing Nairo Quintana and waiting for him to make a move, and Uran could see an opportunity to try to widen the gap so that it is an even taller order for his Colombian rival if/when the Movistar leader recovers from his various ailments.

And what of Quintana? Were his health not in question, he’d be in my Top 3 favorites for the day. Unfortunately, just as he was recovering from his Stage 6 crash he fell sick. He did not appear to be at full strength in the ITT. He may have returned to 100% by now, but he’ll have to prove that he’s firing on all cylinders before I start predicting victory here.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka should do very well on Stage 14. He was very impressive in the chrono and he’s got some punch to make a move. The young Pole already has a Giro d’Italia Top 10 on his resume: now, he wants more, and he’s setting his sights on the podium. Astana’s Fabio Aru currently sits 7th on GC, and he’s now in a leadership role for a strong squad. Repeated days in the high mountains may start to wear on him next week, but for now I like his odds.

Trek’s Robert Kiserlovksi is an outsider I see with real potential. He’s been stellar on the climbs this year even against top competition. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will almost certainly try something on one of the steeper sections of the road to Oropa. Diego Ulissi of Lampre lost a lot of ground on GC thanks to a Stage 11 crash, but his ITT performance kept him on the fringes of the overall leaderboard, meaning that he will be likely remain a marked man. Still, he’s a decent bet at this point in the race. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman will hope to prove that he can hack it as the Giro starts to enter some very tough days, and BMC’s Cadel Evans will hope to take advantage of his strong team support and possibly try to take back time now that Uran has grabbed the overall lead. The next few days should provide some insight into just how well he is climbing.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Domenico Pozzovivo | 2. Julian Arredondo | 3. Rigoberto Uran

The Stage 15 preview will be up a few hours after the conclusion of Stage 14. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 23, 2014