Stage 15: Sabiñánigo › Sallent de Gállego – 118.5km
Sunday’s stage will bring a second straight day of GC action, though the parcours is markedly different. Stage 15 is quite short at only 118.5km, and the climbs aren’t as challenging as those the bunch faced Saturday.
However, the pace will be very high given the length of the stage, and that can sometimes lead to unpredictable results. Plus, the final climb is far more challenging than the metrics (14.5km at 4.6%) suggest. For one, the ascending begins long before the official start of the climb. In fact, the final 25km or so are mostly uphill, with an average grade of over 3%. That’s a long way to be going up. On top of that, the officially rated section of the climb is not completely steady all the way up, with a few steeper sections that could launch attacks.
It’s proven quite a challenge predicting whether mountain stages at the Vuelta thus far would come down to the breakaway or the GC men, and Stage 15 is another tough one to call. Though the race will be hard to control on this profile, and though the peloton has allowed serious breakaways ride to two straight stage victories, the short distance will see a high tempo that could make a successful break hard to pull off. As such, I think the top GC men deserve favorite status, if only slightly.
As usual, I see Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana as the likeliest red jersey contenders. Given what we’ve seen all week, I’ll give Froome the slight edge on this parcours, though it’s very close.
Don’t count out the Orica duo of Esteban Chaves and Simon Yates for the win, however. The team showed off its knack for racing strategy in Stage 14, which leads me to believe in the potential for Orica to get creative having two rider so close on GC. Either one could attack to set up a later move by his teammate, making them a dangerous pair.
Samuel Sánchez and Alberto Contador are worth watching too, as both have ridden aggressively (if not entirely successfully) on the mountain stages of this Vuelta. Leopold König may have a better shot than either home favorite—he may not have quite the press in the first week, but he’s proven capable of holding his own with the heavyweights in this race.
As for potential breakaway candidates, a number of riders have established themselves as the go-to potential protagonists in a stage like this: Pello Bilbao, Mathias Frank, Ben Hermans, Gianluca Brambilla, Thomas De Gendt, Pierre Latour, Luis León Sánchez, Robert Gesink, and Kenny Elissonde are all worthy of attention as long-distance threats.
Sunday’s stage has the topography to set up an interesting day of racing. With two Cat. 1s and an HC climb among the six categorized climbs on the menu, Stage 15 will provide the climbers with ample opportunities to separate themselves from the pack and fight for stage and GC glory. The big question? Will those fights be one in the same, or will we have a battle up the road for the stage and a battle in the bunch for GC time?
I’m leaning towards a breakaway being favored to win this stage. There’s just too much up-and-down for the peloton to have an easy time controlling the race, and with a downhill run-in to a flat finish, the yellow jersey hopefuls probably won’t go as full gas in the last 30km as they might for a mountain finish. Neither scenario would be a surprise, but for me, the breakers have the preliminary edge.
Rafal Majka stands out on the long list of breakaway candidates as a potential protagonist. He is good at getting into moves, and even better at executing when there are mountains involved. He’s probably the strongest rider for this stage that isn’t in GC contention right now.
Vincenzo Nibali is another great name for Stage 15, given all the descending on the profile. The stage suits him perfectly, assuming he has the form to stay up front. Rui Costa will like the look of the parcours too.
Thomas De Gendt, Pierre Rolland, Tom Dumoulin, Jarlinson Pantano, Ilnur Zakarin, and Dani Navarro are others who could succeed as long-range attackers in Stage 15.
Should the peloton contest the stage, look to the faster finishers as top favorites. Sure, Chris Froome or Nairo Quintana could try to solo away on the last two climbs but it will be a tall order. Alejandro Valverde and Bauke Mollema are probably better suited to the flat finale.
VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites
1. Rafal Majka | 2. Rui Costa | 3. Alejandro Valverde
Stage 15: Castelrotto › Alpe di Siusi – 10.85km (ITT)
Just in case Stage 14 was not decisive enough for you, Giro organizers planned a critical mountain time trial for the day after the queen stage.
10.85km from start to finish, the stage has an average gradient of a little over 7.2% all told, though the hard climbing only starts after 1.8km. From there it’s pretty steady the rest of the way up.
Sunday’s stage is all about who can generate the most watts per kilogram at this point in the race, following an extremely difficult Saturday. A few days ago I thought this would be a pretty straightforward stage to predict, but given the way things played out in Stage 14, I’m not so sure now.
Vincenzo Nibali is a cautious favorite pick. At peak form, Nibali would be the clear top contender—but he looked to be just a bit off his best Saturday. I still think he combines TT ability with climbing legs better than anyone else on the startlist, but it could be closer than expected.
Steven Kruijswijk has forced himself into the conversation here. He doesn’t get a lot of credit as a time trialist, but he was a very impressive 5th in last year’s 14th stage of the Giro. Combined with the way he’s been going uphill, he’s a real contender for the stage win here.
So is Esteban Chaves. TTs aren’t really his thing but he’s not the worst rider against the clock, and it shouldn’t matter too much with the gradient of this climb. Chaves is flying in this Giro.
Then there’s Alejandro Valverde. A few days ago I would have thought he’d be in with a shot at the win here but he really struggled in Stage 14. On the other hand, one thing that makes a guy like Valverde a perennial GC contender is his ability to deliver consistently through three weeks. I’m not counting him out after one bad day.
Ilnur Zakarin and Rafal Majka both have a chance on this stage. Majka in particular has done very well in Giro mountain time trials in the past. Rigoberto Urán, Andrey Amador, Bob Jungels, and Primoz Roglic are others who could be in the mix.
The climbing continues in the Vuelta’s 15th stage. The 175.8km journey from Comillas to Sotres resembles Stage 14 in that it opens with a long stretch without many serious challenges before ramping up to a tough finishing climb.
The first 70 kilometers of Stage 15 consist mostly of small rolling hills. An uncategorized ascent then signals the start of the more difficult terrain. It’s followed by an intriguing Alto del Torno climb, a Cat. 2 of 10.1km at an average gradient of 3.2% that will likely be far more challenging than the metric indicate, thanks to its irregular nature. The road ascends in three successive steep sections broken up by a pair of quick downhills, which will make for a constantly changing pace that isn’t going to be particularly comfortable.
From the top it’s a fast descent into a flat section around 20km before an uncategorized bump, and then a final downhill into the finishing climb, the Alto de Sotres.
The double-digit gradients that close out Stage 15 will undoubtedly see gaps open up among the GC contenders.
A Cat. 1 of 12.7km at 7.9%, it’s one of the most difficult climbs in the race, an irregular ascent with a challenging opening third, an easier midsection, and a vicious final 3km that ascend into the double digits, with a stretch of 13% just before the finish line.
The last 70km of Stage 15 will make for an exhausting finale. The very steep final few kilometers will make this stage a critical day for the GC favorites, especially those who fear the time trial to come. In terms of the battle for stage honors, however, I think the breakaway specialists will have an excellent opportunity today. With the most difficult part of the stage at the very end of the final climb, it wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see the GC favorites hold off on major hostilities until the very end of the day.
The breakaway riders will likely open up a big advantage on the flat kilometers at the start of the stage where the GC teams will be less interested in driving the pace, and the rolling, irregular terrain that follows will make for a day that is difficult to control.
As such, I don’t see any one rider as the top favorite, but I see several potential long-range candidates with a great shot at success, and with the top-flight GC names as obvious favorites if everything comes back together.
Several potential breakaway candidates kept missed (or intentionally stayed away from) the Stage 14 break, which should make for a hotly contested fight to make the break on Stage 15.
Team Colombia has put riders in breakaways throughout this Vuelta a España, as expected, but the team has little to show for it so far. It would help if they could get either one of their two best climbers up the road. Rodolfo Torres got off to a slow start in the Vuelta, but he has looked good climbing with the overall GC favorites in the past few mountain stages. A breakaway stage win should be doable. Getting up the road may be his biggest challenge—Torres doesn’t have nearly as much experience making it into breakaway moves at this level as some of his teammates, who have made careers out of going off the front in Grand Tours. Fabio Duarte is certainly one of those riders, and near the end of a quiet season he’s finally starting to show some ability.
BMC will be in a great position to double up after Alessandro De Marchi’s Stage 14 win if Darwin Atapuma can get into the early move. A stage without much in the way of challenging descents should suit Atapuma, who is better at going up than going down.
Europcar’s Romain Sicard is looking very good right now and he has doggedly chased down breakaway attempts so far in the race and could get up the road again here, but now sitting within 4 minutes of the overall lead, he could find it hard to stick in the move. Cyril Gautier, Pierre Rolland, and Jérôme Cousin may be better options for the team.
Sky has several cards to play in the hunt for stage wins in the mountains: Vasil Kiryienka, Sergio Henao, Ian Boswell, and Nicolas Roche are all viable options, and all four will have a chance if they make the break.
Giovanni Visconti and Andrey Amador give Movistar two terrific candidates for breakaway success, but it’s hard to say how interested Movistar will be in the stagehunting game now that they appear to be back in the GC battle.
If Mikel Landa is in the early move, he’s an obvious candidate for long-range success, though it’s hard to say what’s on his mind now that he’s got one Vuelta stage win in the bag. Rubén Plaza, Bart De Clercq, Kenny Elissonde, Bert-Jan Lindeman, David Arroyo, José Goncalves, and Frank Schleck are others who could have success from afar.
Despite losing some ground to a few of his rivals, Fabio Aru looked strong on Stage 14, probably giving up time more as a function of attacking too early than anything else. He will again be among the favorites out of the group of GC contenders. He’s not afraid to go on the attack to build his advantage, either. Still, Nairo Quintana looks much-improved after a rough patch, and will be a formidable opponent on the steep stuff. I’m still not sure that he’s up to beating Aru on these vicious gradients, but it won’t be much of a surprise to see him leave the Italian behind either.
Joaquím Rodríguez should look like the look of the finale, and the slightly shorter final climb of Stage 15 should suit him better than the climb that closed out Stage 14. Purito has not been as aggressive as expected thus far in the Vuelta, but he has to know he is running out of opportunities to make a difference in this race.
Esteban Chaves continues to show his talents, and he could enjoy a longer leash now that he’s over a minute down on GC. Rafal Majka looked good, if not worldbeating, on Stage 14, and he might get some breathing room to launch an attack on Stage 15 as well.
Sandwiched between two days with relatively difficult late climbs, the 15th stage of the Tour de France has a profile that could give the sprinters one last chance at stage glory before Paris—but things will likely be harder than they look on the road to Valence.
The riders will be climbing immediately off the startline, with an uncategorized uphill drag into the Cat. 3 Côte de Badaroux on tap right away. Expect some of the more aggressive climbing specialists to attempt an early break on the way up. From the top it’s a relatively flat road to the next categorized climb almost 60 kilometers later, but said Cat. 4, the Col du Bez, is immediately followed by another, the Col de la Croix de Bauzon. Then comes a very long descent down to the intermediate sprint at Aubenas.
From there, it’s only a short way to the foot of the final climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Col de l’Escrinet, 7.9km long at a 5.8% average gradient. From the top of the climb it’s another long descent, about 25 kilometers, into a flat and relatively straightforward final 30 kilometers.
The climbs are not especially hard, and the long flat stretch into the finish line will give the sprinters hope for a bunch kick, but they’ll have to reel in the breakaway first. The race is about to enter a challenging stretch of Alpine stages, and the peloton might be hoping to make it through Stage 15 without too much trouble on the way to one more medium mountain stage and then a much-needed rest day before the GC action picks up.
If the break is caught, it will be thanks to a few dedicated sprinters’ teams hoping for a last shot at stage glory before the Alps, and the chase will have likely taken something out of the pack, which could give a boost to the stronger, more versatile quick men despite the pan-flat finish. The Col de l’Escrinet is not an easy bump in the road either, and it could further wear down some of the heavier quick men.
Etixx-QuickStep will have the option of riding hard to keep Mark Cavendish in play for a sprint, or riding less hard to get the more versatile Matteo Trentin into position for a bunch kick. Cav is probably the first option, and if he’s in the lead group in the final few kilometers, he will be hard to beat, but that’s far from a given. Trentin is a strong alternative.
André Greipel and Cavendish seem pretty closely matched right now, but I think Cavendish still has the speed to win all things being equal (though the disparity in positioning in the first two bunch sprints stages in the Tour are good reminders that Tour de France sprints don’t occur in a vacuum). In any case, a lot of things will have to go right for both of them for that to be the scenario that decides the stage.
Peter Sagan has come remarkably close to stage victories even on the flattest days so far in this race, thanks to his excellent form at the moment. He’ll have a chance in a big bunch sprint here, but a day spent in the breakaway on Stage 14 and the brutal finishing climb at the end of that stage probably took something out of him. Having to go for every intermediate sprint doesn’t really help. It seems unlikely that he’ll be in the break again, so Sagan, like the other quick men, will probably need to rely on the catch being made to have any shot at victory, and then he’ll need to beat other quick men who may have a bit more in the tank.
John Degenkolb should be in prime position to take advantage of a potential sprint after a moderately challenging day, and a probably tired Peter Sagan. He’s quick enough to win sprint finishes as it is, and the parcours and race situation are likely to weigh in his favor. Stage 15 offers a much better chance for Degenkolb to pick up his first career Tour win than the finale in paris will be—though that’s all assuming the break is caught.
Alexander Kristoff has not had quite the same level of success in the 2015 Tour that he had in 2014, but the stage suits his skillset. Arnaud Démare, Davide Cimolai, Tyler Farrar, Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Matthews and Bryan Coquard are others with a chance at success if this comes down to the pack.
Naming potential breakaway candidates for this stage is tough because it’s not quite as difficult a stage as those that have preceded it, or those that are about to follow, lengthening the already long list of riders who could have a shot at taking a win from afar.
Simon Geschke has a fast finishing kick and a knack for getting up the road—he’s come close to big Grand Tour wins in the past and this is an excellent parcours for him.
Edvald Boasson Hagen has not quite lived up to expectations in the past few stages, but his ability to get up the road and his powerful finishing kick make him a good breakaway contender for Stage 15.
The same could be said for Sylvain Chavanel—he has not made much of an impression on this Tour de France but the Stage 15 profile suits him very well, with plenty of space for him to power clear for a solo bid, or potentially hold out for a small group sprint from a breakaway.
Jan Barta, Ryder Hesjedal, Jan Bakelants, Ramunas Navardauskas, Thomas De Gendt, Lars Bak, Michal Kwiatkowski, and Sep Vanmarcke are others to watch out for in a long-range move.
VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites
1. John Degenkolb | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 15.
Stage 15: Marostica › Madonna di Campiglio – 165km
Now that the stage 14 time trial has shaken up the GC (Vasil Kiryienka’s stage win was perhaps overshadowed by his teammate Richie Porte losing another chunk of time to his rivals) and put Alberto Contador back on top of the overall leaderboard, the peloton heads to the mountains.
Stage 15 is a tough climbing stage. Things get started with a long, low-gradient, uncategorized ascent into the Cat. 2 climb of La Fricca. From there, it’s a long descent and a few rollers before the harsh Cat. 1 Passo Daone climb, 8.4km at a 9.2% average gradient. A steep downhill from the top of that climb leads into an uncategorized ascent into the final categorized challenge of the day, the Cat. 1 Madonna di Campigilio climb to a summit finish, 15.5km at 5.9%.
The three official climbs and the other unmarked uphill sections would make this a challenging day no matter where it found itself in the Giro stage order, but coming on the heels of a brutal almost-60km time trial, it will hurt. As with any up-and-down climber-friendly day, this one will give the breakaway a chance at success, but with the added factor of following up a day that most certainly wore out the GC contenders, it seems like a good bet that the breakaway riders who saved their legs on Stage 14 will have a great chance of going the distance on Stage 15. Even if the GC riders were completely fresh, Tinkoff-Saxo has showed little interest in closing down the breakaways so far in this race. That makes it a really tough one to predict, but there are a few likely protagonists.
Beñat Intxausti will want to get up the road on this stage in pursuit of KOM points. His hold on the blue jersey is tenuous, and there are plenty of points on offer here. If he can get into the break, he’ll be very dangerous. He’s in excellent form and these climbs suit him well. Teammates Ion Izagirre and Giovanni Visconti will also be worth watching.
Carlos Betancur is another rider hunting that KOM title, and he seems to improve daily in this Giro. This stage will really test his endurance. If he can get into the break, he’ll probably be able to outpunch Intxausti for the earlier KOMs, but things could get tough on the final climb when the lead group starts to get whittled down. In any case, Betancur is a dangerous rider on this climb-happy parcours.
Ryder Hesjedal is far enough out of GC contention to get some breathing room here, and he’s looked pretty good so far in this race. Cannondale-Garmin will almost certainly put a rider up the road early on; the question is whether it will be Hesjedal, or the also-strong Davide Formolo and Tom Danielson. All of them are danger men from the breakaway.
Stefano Pirazzi, Edoardo Zardini, Esteban Chaves, Franco Pellizotti, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Darwin Atapuma, Jan Polanc, Steven Kruijswijk, and Ilnur Zakarin are others on a very long list of potential long-range contenders here.
If the GC favorites do fight it out for stage honors, a flying Alberto Contador is the obvious choice, though he might have less incentive to attack now that he’s healthily in the GC lead again. Fabio Aru may look to get aggressive on the steep slopes to put pressure on Contador and attempt to claw back time, but expect Tinkoff-Saxo to be watching him very closely. His teammate Mikel Landa, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Rigoberto Urán, Leopold König, now-way-out-of-contention Richie Porte, and Damiano Caruso, meanwhile, probably seem like less of a threat to Contador and could get some leeway to attack on the Madonna di Campigilio climb.
VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites
1. Beñat Intxausti | 2. Carlos Betancur | 3. Mikel Landa
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. Stage 15 is followed by a rest day, so check back on Monday for the preview of the next stage. In the meantime, keep an eye out for the next episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
