Tag: Stage 16

Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Alcañiz › Peñíscola – 156.4km

After a zany mountain stage Sunday, the GC contenders should get a chance to take it easy in Stage 16. After 90km mostly uphill kilometers punctuated by a single Cat. 3, the road descends toward the Mediterranean coast and a flat final 15km. The topography will have the sprinters excited to finally be in the spotlight again after several straight days of hills and mountains.

Barring a serious dropping of the ball (though that is entirely possible), the stage battle will come down to a bunch kick. Gianni Meersman has been the most successful sprinter so far in the Vuelta, and he’ll absolutely be worth watching in the finale given the form he’s shown so far in Spain. But there are a few other riders I like to challenge him given the easy parcours.

Nikias Arndt doesn’t have Meersman’s strong climbing legs, but he probably won’t need them here. This should be a day for the pure speedsters, and Arndt has a good track record in bona fide sprints against some notable riders—in peak form, he’s probably the fastest rider here. He’s had a pretty disappointing run in the Vuelta so far but this is a good opportunity to get on track.

Kristian Sbaragli should be in the mix as well. It’s been a quieter year than was expected for Sbaragli, but in this field he’s got to be among the top favorites regardless.

Jonas Van Genecthen is a bit of a late bloomer as quick men go, claiming a maiden grand tour sprint win less than a month before turning 30, but he deserves to be in the conversation after his Stage 7 win. Magnus Cort Nielsen, Daniele Bennati, Jens Keukeleire, Fabio Felline, Jempy Drucker, and Michael Schwarzmann are others to watch.

Should the sprint teams let this one get away from them, look out for the likes of Luis León Sánchez, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Thomas De Gendt to try a long-range move.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Nikias Arndt | 2. Gianni Meersman | 3. Kristian Sbaragli

September 5, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Moirans-en-Montagne › Berne – 209km

The final stage before the Tour’s second rest day has a deceptively simple profile that looks like a golden opportunity for the sprinters, but a few factors could complicate things. Sure, there’s only one categorized climb on the menu and it’s a Cat. 4 that probably shouldn’t have been categorized at all, but the distance marks this as one of the longer stages in the race, and it comes after a tough day of climbing. With a rest day on tap for Tuesday, it wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility that the bunch decides to take it slow—they’ve done a fair bit of that this year. That opens the door for a break.

And then there’s the finish. There are two uphill sections inside the last 3km that could have a serious impact on the finale, particularly the second stretch of 600 meters at 6.5%. The road flattens out for the last kilometer, but the lighter guys might have already won the positioning battle by that point if this comes down to a sprint.

With those things in mind, I’d say Peter Sagan is my favorite for the stage because of his ability to win from the break, in a messy finale, or even a straight up bunch kick with all the big names. This is a good chance for Sagan to nab his third win of this year’s Tour.

Alexander Kristoff is another strong option—he probably won’t try for the break, but the distance shouldn’t bother him and he’s looked better and better as the race goes on. The same could be said for John Degenkolb.

Bryan Coquard will love the finale, and will be itching for another shot at a stage win after narrowly missing out last week. So too will Michael Matthews, who thrives on gradients like these, and Greg Van Avermaet, who could find this hard enough to get into the mix.

Then there’s the big three of Marcel Kittel, André Greipel, and Mark Cavendish. I think Cavendish has proven that he has the clear edge, so I’d pick him to win if all the top names are there, but it’s close.

Don’t discount a long-range winner either. Watch out for Thomas De Gendt, Tommy Voeckler, Fabian Cancellara, Michael Albasini, Tony Gallopin, and Edvald Boasson Hagen as potential breakaway winners.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Alexander Kristoff | 3. Mark Cavendish

July 18, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Bressanone › Andalo – 132km

The Giro peloton gets back to racing after a much-needed day off with a stage that could see more gaps on GC—but will likely be more of a breakaway battleground than anything.

The climbs aren’t easy, and the first two in particular seem to be rated rather modestly. The first climb has an uphill run-up—all told, the riders will be ascending for the better part of 20km at an average gradient of over 5%. That’s pretty hard for a Cat. 2. The next climb is also given a rating that might have riders underestimating it. More than 10km at over 7%, it’s enough to spur attacks.

All that said, the stage ends with a Cat. 3 that flattens out at the top, which could have the overall contenders hesitant about setting their teams to work. At least in terms of the stage battle, I think the early escapees will have good chance at the win.

That makes predicting Stage 16 quite hard, but I’ll toss a few names out there. Mikel Nieve is one—he’s a great climber with freedom to hunt stage wins, and that’s already netted him one victory in this race. His Sky teammate David López could be in the mix as well.

Darwin Atapuma and Alessandro De Marchi make a nice duo of potential breakers for BMC. Atapuma looks great right now.

Giovanni Visconti would be a terrific pick for this stage, but it could be all hands on deck for Valverde at Movistar right now. If he does get into the breakaway, however, he’s got a great chance.

Tim Wellens and Diego Ulissi are both excellent candidates for the stage win because they could conceivably win this from the break or the peloton. The same is true of Gianluca Brambilla.

Alejandro Valverde is the obvious favorite if this does come down to the bunch, given his speedy finishing kick. Esteban Chaves, Vincenzo Nibali, and Steven Kruijswijk are other potential winners, though it will take a pretty strong attack to make that happen with this finale.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Mikel Nieve | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. Alejandro Valverde

May 24, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Luarca › Ermita de Alba – 185km

The Vuelta’s 16th stage will be among the hardest in the race. The road is angled sharply upward or downward for the majority of the day, and the finish is brutal.

The stage starts on a climb, the Cat. 3 Alto de Aristébano, which could spring the day’s main breakaway. If not, the agressors will have more opportunities to jump clear on the pair of uncategorized climbs that follow, or the Cat. 2 Alto de Piedratecha that comes next.

A less challenging stretch follows as the road slopes mostly downward from the top of the Piedratecha until about kilometer 80, where a short Cat. 3 awaits. Then comes another short climb, this time a Cat. 2, followed by a descent, a brief flat section, and then a trio of climbs that get progressively harder to close out the stage.

First up is the Cat. 2 Alto del Cordal, 8.5km at 5.7%. It’s more of a leg softener than anything. It’s followed by testy downhill into the vicious Alto de la Cobertoria, 9.8km at an 8.7% average gradient. The climb is harder than the metrics would suggest, as the average gradient is closer to 10% if you take out a less challenging final kilometer. Given the closeness of the GC battle, it would make sense for the red jersey hopefuls to initiate hostilities on this climb, even if there is a special-category ascent still to come. We’ll see if anyone has the guts to try.

One last downhill follows the Cat. 1 summit, and then it’s on to one of the most painful climbs in the race, the Alto Ermita de Alba.

The gradients on the Alto Ermida de Alba are such that holding the wheel of the next rider in line will offer virtually no benefit—only the climbing specialists will be able to survive this climb.

It’s only 6.8km, but the average gradient is 11.1%, with a particularly nasty midsection that kicks up over 21% for a little while. It’s not exactly easy after that, with gradients still hovering in or around the double digits for the rest of the way up.

There are still a few mountain stages to come in the Vuelta, but Stage 16 is the last day with a summit finish, and there’s a long, flat time trial on the horizon, which means that the climbing stars need to put everything they have into this showdown to build up an advantage. In terms of the stage victory itself, this does look like a great profile for the long-range specialists, with climbs from the get-go that will favor the more uphill-oriented riders in the battle to get into the break, and then a wild finale that will be very hard to control. On the other hand, the smart play from any team other than Giant-Alpecin will be to drive a torrid pace over the climbs to weaken those who aren’t as suited to the gradients. I see the peloton vs. breakaway showdown as a 50-50 proposition.

Joaquím Rodríguez has been stronger than Fabio Aru on the past two stages in a row, and Stage 16 will be considerably harder than Stages 14 or 15 were, with some incredibly steep sections that should open up serious gaps between riders at the end of the day. Rodríguez attacked efficiently and effectively on Stage 15 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take Stage 16 as well—the last climb suits him perfectly. In any case, I see Aru as the other top favorite out of the GC men.

Rafal Majka is very much in the conversation as well. He couldn’t follow Rodríguez on Stage 15 but smartly rode in Aru’s wheel for a little while before letting the Italian go on ahead, only to pass him again before the line. I’m not sure this climb suits him all that well as it is just so steep, but he’s looking fresh and aggressive at the moment.

Nairo Quintana is certainly looking better than he did earlier in the race and will be an excellent candidate for stage success because of his GC position, far enough behind the leaders that he may get some breathing room if he tries an attack again. With 3 minutes over Quintana, Aru and Rodríguez can afford to let him go on the move. The same could be said for Esteban Chaves, who is likely to lose ground in the coming time trial. Chaves is riding into completely unknown territory right now, contending into the third week of racing at a Grand Tour, but he doesn’t look to be slowing down much.

Should the break contest the win, I’m looking at the same names that have come up in that conversation so far. Rodolfo Torres is my top pick of potential candidates for long-range success, as he combines form and climbing ability with a clear interest in going on the move. He was in an early breakaway on Stage 15 that was ultimately reeled in before the main move got clear, and I expect him to try again on Stage 16. The same goes for Fabio Duarte. This final climb is one for the real specialists, and that makes both Colombians dangerous.

I also expect Sky to try to get someone into the breakaway. Sergio Henao finished within 2 minutes of Purito on Stage 15 despite working for Nieve most of the afternoon. He’s clearly in excellent shape. Ian Boswell, Nicolas Roche, and Vasil Kiryienka could also try to get involved in the break.

On form and ability, Mikel Landa of Astana and Giovanni Visconti of Movistar are obvious candidates to take this stage from a breakaway if they get up the road, but the big question is whether they will be gunning for the move or helping team leaders—Landa has shown a willingness to do his own thing despite team orders, and Visconti rides for a squad whose chances of making a GC impact are dwindling, but it’s hard to predict what they’ll do.

The Europcar quartet of Jérôme Cousin, Romain Sicard, Pierre Rolland, and Cyril Gautier, BMC’s Darwin Atapuma and Alessandro De Marchi, Kenny Elissonde, and Bart De Clercq are other riders to watch out for as potential stage winners from a breakaway move.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Joaquím Rodríguez | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Nairo Quintana

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Vuelta a España analysis. Stage 16 is followed by a rest day, so the preview of Stage 17 will be up on Tuesday. In the meantime, keep an eye out for a new episode of the Recon Ride.

September 6, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Bourg-de-Péage › Gap – 201km

In the final day of racing before the second rest day at the Tour, the peloton will take on a deceptively challenging 201km Stage 16 from Bourg-de-Péage to Gap. It’s the very definition of a transition stage, with the route taking the riders right into the foothills of the Alps in preparation for several tough days in the high mountains.

As such, the road takes a gentle upward bent for the first 120 kilometers that, despite lacking any categorization, will certainly put a bit of fatigue into the legs. Then comes the Cat. 2 Col de Cabre, 9.1km at 4.6%—it’s not an extremely difficult climb, but coming after a sustained gradient, it will hurt a lot more than the metrics might suggest.

A quick descent leads down to another uncategorized upward drag, before a speedy downhill into the second and final climb of the day, the Col de Manse. A Category 2 ascent at 8.9 kilometers at 5.6%, it’s another uphill test that will do more damage than the gradient would suggest.

From the top, it’s a steep, technical descent almost all the way to the finish line. Things only flatten out inside the final 4 kilometers.

The Tour has a great appreciation for Gap and for this particular route to the line—the race has finished there several times, especially in recent years. Every race is different, but if past trips to Gap are any indication of how this stage might play out, the breakaway will have a great chance, and the GC riders should be on their toes.

This is an excellent profile for a long-range move. The sprinters won’t really have a shot at the stage, and the Alps loom large, which will likely inspire the GC types to take it easy for most of the stage, at least until the final climb of the day. That will give the early breakaway an advantage, and even if an early move gets reeled in, others will likely be primed to jump clear as soon as the catch is made. Whatever the scenario, it will take a large engine, strong climbing legs, and excellent descending skills to win Stage 16. It’s long, there are a lot of vertical meters, and the descent into Gap is quite difficult—difficult enough to ruin Joseba Beloki’s career via a nasty crash, and difficult enough to force Lance Armstrong to show off his cyclocross skills when run off the road, when the Tour visited the same downhill in 2003.

Given the high likelihood of breakaway success (I rate odds of a long-range win at better than even) on Stage 16, there is really no single top favorite—there are only riders who will be more likely to succeed on the day.

Predicting which riders will make it into the main break has been an especially difficult proposition recently, with the teams of the GC outsiders putting in a lot of work to protect minor placings on the leaderboard. Plenty of riders at the fringes of and just beyond the Top 10 will be hoping to get up the road for stage honors here but that could be difficult given the competition.

Jan Bakelants has the wide array of talents, and the knack for getting into long-range moves, to thrive on Stage 16. He flashed excellent form on Stage 13, outclimbing nearly everyone on the steep uphill finale. If he’s in the lead group near the end of the day, the late climb and then the descent into gap will be an excellent opportunity for Bakelants to go in pursuit of a stage win. Alexis Vuillermoz and Romain Bardet give AG2R two more great options.

Michal Kwiatkowski is among the best descenders in the Tour de France peloton. On form, he combines uphill ability and finishing speed better than almost anyone in the race as well. At his best, Kwiatkowski would be a hot favorite for this stage, but he’s clearly not at 100% in this race. Still, Kwiatkowski has been active in the breakaway game and if he can hold on over the final climb, he’ll be deadly in the downhill run to the line.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s stated main ambition coming into the Tour de France was Alberto Contador’s GC campaign, but the team’s stagehunting aspirations have grown stronger and stronger as the race has gone on. This is an excellent profile for Tinkoff-Saxo’s stagehunters. Peter Sagan won’t have an easy time getting into the breakaway, but it’s certainly a possibility, and if he’s in the lead group at the end of the day, he’s got to be the top favorite. But even if Sagan misses out on a successful breakaway move, the team has other great options from afar. Michael Rogers is an excellent descender and won a similar stage from the break in last year’s Tour de France. Rafal Majka is in good form as well, and he’s a good bet to try to jump clear on the late climb.

Joaquim Rodríguez already has a pair of 2015 Tour wins, one from the breakaway. Rodríguez isn’t quite at his best form, but he’s still a stronger climber than most other potential breakaway candidates for the stage victory. The biggest question mark for Purito will be whether he tries to get into the move here, or whether he saves energy for the Alps.

Europcar also has options. Tommy Voeckler will appreciate the profile, and Cyril Gautier looks to be on very good form in this Tour (and has been active so far trying to get up the road). Pierre Rolland could try to get clear on the Col de Manse as well.

Vincenzo Nibali’s Grand Tour-winning climbing ability and elite descending skills will make him a top contender—if he’s at the front of the race at the end of Stage 16. Nibali’s current Top 10 GC position, though, may have his fringe GC rivals riding defensively to try to keep him from getting up the road, either in the early breakaway, or even late on in the day on the last climb. He’s got a great chance at Tour de France redemption via a stage win with this profile, but it won’t be a cakewalk getting clear of the peloton.

Sylvain Chavanel, Greg Van Avermaet, Dan Martin, Ryder Hesjedal, Jarlinson Pantano, Jakob Fuglsang, Wilco Kelderman, Simon Geschke, Rigoberto Urán, and Simon Yates are other candidates on the very long list of potential contenders from afar on Stage 16.

Regardless of whether the break is reeled in, the GC teams will likely drive a hard pace on the final climb—the Col de Manse has opened up gaps on the GC leaderboard in the past, and the day before a rest day in this year’s race, some of the more enterprising climbers in the pack could be on the lookout for opportunities to put their rivals into danger. That will make for a tough day in the peloton, likely to drop most of the traditional quick men from contention if the break does get caught.

Alejandro Valverde will be a favorite from the pack on Stage 16, given his strong descending abilities and terrific finishing kick. Tony Gallopin, whose climbing legs are more impressive right now than they’ve ever been, will have a great shot if this comes down to the pack as well, given his downhill skills and his impressive top-end speed. Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana can’t be counted out either. The latter has tried to test the former at every opportunity he’s gotten so far.

Michael Matthews, Matteo Trentin, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, and John Degenkolb are others who will have a shot with the potential for a reduced sprint from the peloton.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Jan Bakelants | 2. Joaquim Rodríguez | 3. Alejandro Valverde

With a rest day on tap following Stage 16, the next stage preview will be up on Tuesday—in the meantime, check out the latest episode of the Recon Ride podcast, which previews the final five stages!

-Dane Cash

July 19, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Pinzolo › Aprica – 177km

The Giro peloton took a rest day after a challenging Stage 15 won by Mikel Landa, but things will get hectic again immediately on Stage 16. The riders will take on the first of five categorized climbs right from the startline. There is practically not a single meter of flat on this stage. After the opening Cat. 2, the riders will take on a fast descent and then another Cat. 2, and then a very long descent into a Cat. 3, roughly the midpoint of the stage. From there it’s another descent into the foot of the brutal Cat. 1 Passo del Mortirolo climb. 11.8 km at a 10.9% average gradient, it’s an extremely steep road to the top, one that will likely see the stronger riders putting on the pressure and blowing the peloton to pieces.

Over the top of the Mortirolo, the riders will take on another long descent into the foot of a Cat. 3 climb to the finish line. It’s long at 14km but not particularly steep with a 3.5% average gradient.

Five categorized ascents on the parcours will make Stage 16 a major target for the Giro’s blue jersey hopefuls. The fact that the climbing starts right away will benefit the uphill specialists trying to get up the road. With the constant up and down likely to hinder any organized chase efforts, this will be a great opportunity for the breakaway riders, though regardless of who is in the lead group, it should provide an opportunity for the GC riders to battle it out as well.

The Mortirolo will offer opportunities to attack but it’s still a very long way to go from the top. With the low gradient on the final climb, a small group could come to the line together, whether it’s a small group of breakaway riders or a small group of survivors from the pack. Carlos Betancur has plenty of incentive to get into the breakaway on this stage in pursuit of KOM Points, and he’s shown an ability to get up the road so far in this race. He has a very fast finish, and if he’s in the lead group at the end of the day, he’ll be very dangerous on this stage.

Beñat Intxausti will of course be looking to get into the breakaway in defense of his KOM jersey. He’s not as fast at the line as others, but he’s got a powerful engine and might be able to ride others off his wheel in pursuit of this stage win. Movistar teammate Giovanni Visconti, on the other hand, does have a bit of pop for a fast finish, and could be in the mix if he’s allowed up the road (nearly 10 minutes down on GC), as might Igor Anton and Ion Izagirre.

Ryder Hesjedal should like the look of the profile and his chances from the breakaway. If he can get up the road, he’ll have a nice chance at victory in Stage 16.

Stefano Pirazzi, Steven Kruijswijk, Esteban Chaves, Ilnur Zakarin, Franco Pellizotti, Sebastien Reichenbach, Mikel Nieve, Vasil Kiryienka, Darwin Atapuma, Jan Polanc, and Damiano Cunego are others on the list of strong candidates for long-range success here.

If this comes down to a select group of GC favorites instead of the long-range attackers, this could come down to the fastest finishers still surviving among the all-rounders. Damiano Caruso packs a bit of punch, as does Fabio Aru, who would probably like to pick up more stage wins in the race even if he can’t beat Alberto Contador for the pink jersey. Caruso will have the added benefit of probably getting some leeway to go up the road late in the race if he sees an opportunity, as he’s far enough out of GC contention to not threaten Contador’s pink jersey. Speaking of Contador, he obviously can’t be counted out on a stage with a climb as challenging as the Mortirolo, even if it does come so far from the finish.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Carlos Betancur | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. Fabio Aru

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 16 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 25, 2015