The Vuelta peloton gets a rude welcome in its return from a rest day. Wednesday’s stage is one for the climbers, with two early Cat. 2s, a Cat. 3 whose official length of 11.2km ignores an uphill lead-in of several kilometers, and a very steep Cat. 1 finale.
The ramp to the finish line, though only 3.8km, has a vicious average grade of 12.5%. Expect some GC action—if anyone near the top of the leaderboard senses weakness from his rivals, a climb like this presents a great opportunity to nab time, as teammates are not particularly useful at these gradients.
As for the stage battle, I like the breakaway’s chances. The parcours will make this stage tough to control, and I expect the GC favorites to be more concerned with each other than anyone up the road. As such, anyone who can go from afar has to be considered a big threat here.
Robert Gesink has proven to be quite strong in this race, and if he gets into a breakaway here he’ll be tough to beat. Of the riders likely to be getting into the breaks in this Vuelta, he’s shown the best combination of ability and current form, and his grand tour skillset makes him deadly on a brutal finishing climb like this.
Gianluca Brambilla could also challenge for a stage win. He rode masterfully in Stage 15 to show off the excellent shape he’s in, and this finish suits him well.
Luis León Sánchez has been very active getting into moves so far, and he should like the finishing climb. He’s always been adept at putting the hammer down for a late solo move and that should suit him well on a short final climb.
Ben Hermans, Thomas De Gendt, Mathias Frank, Kenny Elissonde, Dries Devenyns, Egor Silin, Louis Meintjes, Pierre Latour, and the now-no-longer-in-GC-contention Leopold König are others to keep an eye on here.
If it’s the GC contenders battling for the stage, Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will be obvious candidates for success (and I like Froome just a bit better), but I see some of the riders a bit further down the leaderboard as the likeliest stage winners. As Froome and Quintana may be busy watching each other on the final climb, either Esteban Chaves or Simon Yates could sneak away. Alberto Contador and Samuel Sánchez can’t be overlooked either.
Wednesday’s stage to Finhaut-Emosson has a terrific finale that should provide quite a show. After 150 kilometers without much to offer in terms of difficult topography, the day finishes with the one-two punch of a Cat. 1 ascent and then an HC-rated finishing climb. There’s not really much downtime between the climbs either, as they’re separated by a fast descent of around 7km.
By the time the riders are midway up the final climb, they’ll be pretty beat. On an average gradient of over 8%, that’s a recipe for action.
I think the profile does give the peloton a decent chance to catch the early break – the long-distance hopefuls will certainly have a chance – but I particularly like the chances of a few fringe GC contenders who might be given some freedom to attack a few kilometers from the finish. I’m expecting Chris Froome to play things a little more conservatively in the final week, and though he’s certainly a top favorite himself to win this stage, I think he might allow a rider like Romain Bardet to jump clear late in the day.
Fabio Aru, Dan Martin, and Joaquím Rodríguez are others far enough back on GC to maybe get some leeway. Nairo Quintana, Richie Porte, Bauke Mollema, and Adam Yates will all likely draw counter moves if they attack, though that doesn’t necessarily rule them out, especially if Quintana can get into gear the way we’ve seen in past Tours de France.
For breakaway candidates, the usual suspects will be in play: Rafal Majka, Pierre Rolland, Thomas De Gendt, Tom Dumoulin, Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are all riders to watch.
The Giro’s 17th stage looks like a perfect one for the sprinters. After a Cat. 4 climb midway through the day, there are almost 100 kilometers of gently downhill or flat roads. If this were the first stage of the race, there would be no question about the outcome—however it’s not the first week.
André Greipel, Marcel Kittel, Arnaud Démare, Elia Viviani, and Caleb have all abandoned the Giro, leaving very few quick men left to challenge for the stage. On the one hand, Giacomo Nizzolo and Sacha Modolo are probably happy to have reduced competition. On the other hand, that leaves just Trek and Lampre to do the work in the bunch to chase down the early break.
Should they be able to keep this under control, I like Nizzolo’s chances. It’s a tricky sprint with some corners, and Nizzolo has looked good so far in the race. Modolo is a strong contender as well, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all for him to best Nizzolo, as he’s already done is several times in his career—including twice in last year’s race.
It’d be a surprise for any other sprinter to win here, but outsiders include Matteo Trentin, Alexander Porsev, Ramunas Navardauskas, Heinrich Haussler, and Kristian Sbaragli.
It’s anyone’s guess who would win this from a breakaway, as an early escape on this type of stage is as much a question of chance as anything. Daniel Oss, Adam Hansen, JJ Rojas, Stefan Küng, and Lars Bak are among the potential protagonists for a long-range victory.
The first of four challenging days in the Alps, Stage 17 comes on the heels of a rest day (which gave VH and Cyclocosm time to team up for one last Tour de France Recon Ride episode). Hopefully, the riders will have gotten in every bit of recovery they need, because the next few stages will put everyone to the test.
Relatively short at 161km, Stage 17 follows the same route of Stage 5 of the 2015 Critérium du Dauphiné, won by Romain Bardet. The stage opens on a short climb, with about 30km of flat to follow, and then it’s up and down all the way to the line. A pair of Cat. 3s and then an 11km (at 5.2%) Cat. 2 are the appetizers of the day before a 1-2 punch of climbs (that happen to be Category 1 and Category 2 climbs, respectively) to close things out.
The Cat. 1 Col d’Allos is really just the second half of a long uphill stretch that starts much earlier. The peloton will be going upward for over 30 kilometers, with an average grade of about 3% over the long haul. The official climb of the Col d’Allos is 14km in length at 5.5%. It starts out at relatively low gradients, but it stays at 6% or more for the final 6 kilometers.
Neither of the final two climbs of Stage 17 is comparatively all that difficult, but together, with plenty of vertical meters already in the legs, they’ll make for a hard day of racing.
After a long, tricky descent from the Col d’Allos comes the final climb of the day, the 6.2km, 6.5% ascent to Pra Loup. It’s a pretty steady uphill drag, with the final kilometer getting a bit steeper at 8%.
The rolling profile, and the lack of any HC-rated climbs, makes this a great day for the breakaway, but it’s never easy getting a great read of the motivations of the teams in the pack. Several of the fringe GC contenders have shown interest in trying to get up the road, but others have been cagey about that prospect and had their teams policing potential escapes. We saw this on Stage 14 when IAM Cycling chased the break because the squad wasn’t pleased with the presence of GC outsiders in the move who might have threatened Mathias Frank’s Top 10 bid. The makeup of the Stage 17 break will help determine whether the pack chases it down, as will the plans of Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo, who could be hoping to test the waters, knowing some riders struggle after a rest day. To me, it’s another toss-up day between the pack and the break.
For a possible breakaway win, look to the strong climbers whose GC aspirations have faded. Romain Bardet will be an obvious pick after taking the win here in the Dauphiné. He’s already spent plenty of time up the road in this Tour de France, and he’s come close to stage victories so far twice. He’s not at his very best form-wise, but he’ll still be able to beat most anyone else on this profile if he’s in the breakaway. Teammates Alexis Vuillermoz and Jan Bakelants will be worth watching as well—these climbs aren’t so hard as to put them out of contention from a long-range move.
Jakob Fuglsang beat Bardet to the top of the Plateau de Beille on Stage 12, and the long, steady climbs of the day suit him. He’s in good form and Astana is hoping to salvage something from this Tour despite Vincenzo Nibali’s GC failings. The biggest question for Fuglsang is whether he’ll go on the attack here, or wait until the following stages to try a breakaway move.
That’s also a question for Joaquim Rodríguez, who has kept his powder dry over the last few stages for a big mountain push. The Stage 17 finish is excellent for Rodríguez, a short steep wall after a not-that-hard climb, but he may have the KOM points of the next few stages in mind. If he’s in the lead group at the end of the day he’ll be a top favorite.
Pierre Rolland should shine on this profile, if he can manage to get up the road either early on, or with a late attack—Cyril Gautier and Romain Sicard could try to get in the mix as well. Compatriot Thibaut Pinot looked very strong coming into the Tour de France but his form has been nowhere near expectations so far. This isn’t a perfect profile for him (he’s never been the world’s best descender) but he’ll likely be very active in the hunt for a stage win in the mountains.
Rafal Majka could threaten if he decides to try to get in the break. Dan Martin was sick during the last few stages but says he’s recovering now, and this is an excellent stage profile for him. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal will be worth watching as well. Michal Kwiatkowski, Rigoberto Urán, Louis Meintjes, Serge Pauwels, Adam and Simon Yates, Wilco Kelderman, and Rafael Valls are other potential dangers in a long-range move.
If the peloton does reel in the break, Alejandro Valverde will be the hot favorite for stage victory with this final climb, which is not hard enough to open up huge gaps and will instead favor Valverde’s excellent finishing kick. A potentially aggressive Nairo Quintana will give Movistar a great 1-2 punch for Stage 17.
Tony Gallopin has the speed at the line to challenge Valverde if this comes down to a reduced sprint among the GC types. He’d be a stronger contender if he hadn’t looked exhausted during the stage to Gap, but perhaps after a rest day he will have recovered some strength.
Vincenzo Nibali’s ability to descend and his aggressive streak will serve him well if he decides to go on the hunt for a stage win here.
Chris Froome may decide to play this safe and stay in the wheels, but if he is interested, he’s looked strong enough so far in this Tour de France that he can distance his GC rivals, with the exception of maybe Nairo Quintana, at a moment’s notice if he is so motivated. Sky’s Geraint Thomas will be one to watch with this finish as well.
Robert Gesink and Bauke Mollema could both surprise people if this comes down to a group finish—both are speedier at the line than many realize.
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 17.
The fact that a climber (like stage winner Mikel Landa) would win Stage 16 was obvious from the profile alone, but the Stage 17 profile could be deceiving. It’s a mostly flat stage, with only a single categorized climb on offer (a very early Cat. 3) and just 134km of racing from start to finish (in Lugano, Switzerland). At first glance, it looks like a great day for the sprinters.
But we’re now into the Giro’s final week, and there will be some tired sprinters in the bunch. What’s more, the peloton just took on a brutal day of climbing, and there are more brutal days of climbing ahead. Combine those facts with the fact that the Giro peloton has already displayed an inability to control the breakaway on what appear to be clear sprinters’ days and you have a recipe for another potential opportunity to for the aggressors to steal one from the quick men.
I see it is a 50-50 proposition on this stage. So many sprinters have left the race that it will be harder for those remaining to do the job of keeping the breakaway controlled, but at the same time, this profile is one that should allow them to do so if they manage to stay organized. In any case, at least in terms of naming favorites, the three top sprinters left in this race are certainly stronger individual favorites than any one rider who trying his luck in the crapshoot that is getting into a breakaway on a stage like this. If it does come down to a sprint, a challenging finale with a few late corners will make this an exciting, if somewhat dangerous, stage finish.
Giacomo Nizzolo nearly came away with the elusive victory he has so long sought in the Giro d’Italia on Stage 13, but Sacha Modolo closed the door on him in the final 100 meters with a strong kick and a not-altogether-noble swerve toward the barriers. Still, Nizzolo looked quite strong there despite a complete lack of leadout support in the final 2km, and he’s shown several times in his career an ability to position himself well in a technical finale, even if he doesn’t always time his subsequent sprint kick successfully. This stage suits him, and he’s strong right now; if the breakers are caught, he has a great chance to finally get that win. Sacha Modolo meanwhile, with the powerful Lampre-Merida leadout to guide him to the line, has his own great chance here, a chance to double up on Giro victories. His teammates did a brilliant job to put him in position to win Stage 13, and they’ll be eager to do so again here. He’s looking strong right now too.
Elia Viviani obviously looked great on Stage 2, but since then he hasn’t been quite as impressive. Still, he should be right up there in terms of top speed with the remaining sprinters left in the race and therefore will be among the favorites in a potential sprint here on Stage 17.
Luka Mezgec has shown flashes of that sort of speed in the past but he’s been a bit lackluster in the sprints in this Giro. Giant-Alpecin is nearing the finish of a Grand Tour in which they’ve achieved very little, however, which could motivate them to perform here before the race goes back into the high mountains where they will have little opportunity to impact the events. Alessandro Petacchi, JJ Lobato, Moreno Hofland, and Davide Appollonio are other options for a potential sprint finish.
If a breakaway goes clear, strong engines Sylvain Chavanel (of Swiss team IAM Cycling) and Silvan Diller (of Switzerland) will be among the top riders to keep an eye on. Philippe Gilbert, Fabio Felline, Giovanni Visconti, and Patrick Gretsch are others on the list of riders who might have the energy to get up the road after a hard day in the mountains, though the list of riders with a chance here if Stage 17 does go to the breakaway is almost endless.
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 17 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
With several tough mountain stages (closed out by Alberto Contador’s Stage 16 victory) behind them, the peloton will enjoy a day without any categorized climbs on Stage 17. The profile does include a few small bumps throughout, but the flat finish should motivate the sprinters’ teams to keep the break on a short leash. It’s not a given that they’ll succeed in bringing this back together as the line approaches, and the possibility for rain in the forecast could make things a bit more interesting, but as the last potential sprinters’ stage in the Vuelta a España, a bunch gallop on the waterfront in A Coruña seems likely.
With FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni out of the race, Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb is the most dangerous sprinter in attendance, and he will be the top favorite for Stage 17. Plenty of riders have abandoned the Vuelta at this point, but Degenkolb still has elite leadout man Koen de Kort to guide him to the final few hundred meters, and he has the top speed to take this victory.
Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge will be among his main rivals for stage honors. Versatile as he is, he may be fresher than most after some very hard climbing this week, and he was 2nd to Bouhanni even in the very flat Stage 8. OPQS’s Tom Boonen is getting stronger as this race goes on and as the World Championships near (he was 2nd on Stage 12). He could benefit from bad weather. Lampre-Merida’s Roberto Ferrari has a 3rd place finish in this Vuelta already. With Max Richeze and Pippo Pozzato for support, Lampre is loaded for this one.
Astana’s Andrea Guardini has not been much of a factor even on the flatter stages in this race so far, but he has the talent to be in the mix. Lotto Belisol’s Jens Debusschere, MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, AG2R’s Yauheni Hutarovich, BMC’s Philippe Gilbert, Garmin’s Nathan Haas, and IAM Cycling’s Vicente Reynes will be outside contenders for Stage 17. Trek has the speedy Jasper Stuyven and Fabio Felline, but Fabian Cancellara looks to be getting stronger and he could give this a go, maybe even with an attempt at a long-range victory.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. John Degenkolb | 2. Tom Boonen | 3. Michael Matthews
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 17.
