Stage 18 is reminiscent of Stage 16, with a profile that involves a lot of descending and a flat finish. The parcours should be forgiving enough to allow the sprinters a shot at the stage win, which would make the outcome reminiscent of Stage 16 as well.
Jempy Drucker was quiet in the first few stages of the Vuelta, but it’s hard to overlook him now that he’s proven his form. He took advantage of Etixx’s poorly timed leadout to win Stage 16, but it wasn’t all that close, leading me to believe that he should be capable of another victory even without help from his opponents.
That said, Gianni Meersman has generally looked strong in this race and his squad should be capable of executing a leadout better than they did Monday. A well-shepherded Meersman is capable of beating anyone here.
Jonas van Genechten hasn’t put his strength on display again in this Vuelta since taking his stage win, but he’s certainly a threat. Nikias Arndt is too, though he’s been far less impressive than I expected at the start of the race. Kristian Sbaragli, Magnus Cort Nielsen, and Fabio Felline are others to keep an eye on for a potential sprint.
Given the length of the stage and its position on the overall Vuelta itinerary (with just three stages left), it is entirely possible that the sprinters’ teams drop the ball here. Should that happen, Luis León Sánchez, Thomas De Gendt, Jan Bakelants, and Niki Terpstra are names to remember.
The Tour’s 18th stage is an unusual time trial that fits somewhere between a traditional chrono and a hill climb. The day starts out flat and finishes on a downhill, but there is a challenging ascent in the middle of the route—from kilometer 4 to kilometer 14.5 is a stretch of irregular climbing with an average gradient of a little over 6%. The topography is particularly difficult just at the start.
I see three riders as standing head and shoulders above the rest in the favorites conversation. The stage favors all-rounders, which makes this a great day for Chris Froome, who balances chrono ability with climbing legs probably better than anyone on the start list. Until Stage 13, it had been a while since we’d seen Froome lighting up against the clock, but there’s little doubt he’s as strong as ever now.
Richie Porte fits the bill as well. I think a lackluster Stage 13 could partially be written off as a result of lingering injury after his Stage 12 crash. He looked great Wednesday.
Tom Dumoulin is the other rider to watch. Obviously this is a much more climber-friendly TT than Stage 13, but Dumoulin is quite a strong climber in his own right, as evidenced in last year’s Vuelta, last week’s Arcalis stage, and a number of other times in his career. For me he’s the third favorite here, but it’s a pretty slim margin.
For stage win outsiders, look to Adam Yates, Bauke Mollema, Nairo Quintana, Ilnur Zakarin, and Ion Izagirre.
VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites
1. Chris Froome | 2. Richie Porte | 3. Tom Dumoulin
The 18th stage of the Giro has an “in-betweener” sort of profile that could go a few different ways. Everything will come down to the day’s lone categorized challenge, the Cat. 2 Pramartino climb. 4.65 kilometers at 10.5%, it is absolutely hard enough to break up the general classification. Alternatively, we could see an armistice among the overall contenders while the punchy stage hunters jump clear of the bunch. Or maybe all the attackers will be reeled in before the finish, leading to a reduced sprint. Or we could see an early break take the stage.
I’m inclined to think this comes down to the peloton, especially since one team with a GC contender happens to have the best overall candidate for the win—that would, of course, be Movistar and Alejandro Valverde. The Spaniard can win with an attack on the climb or in a sprint, and he’s looking strong again after a bad day in the mountains last week.
Diego Ulissi is the other top name for this stage, and he brings another option to the table: the breakaway win. Like Valverde, he’s got the punch to thrive here, though he’s maybe a bit less likely to thrive on the climb.
The list of riders who could win this from the break includes: Tim Wellens (who I would have named as my pick before Ulissi and Valverde rode so well in Stage 16), Nicolas Roche, Giovanni Visconti, Gianluca Brambilla, Moreno Moser, and Sonny Colbrelli.
It’d be pretty surprising to see any of the GC contenders not named Alejandro Valverde crossing the line first in this stage, but a long-range attack from Esteban Chaves or Vincenzo Nibali, or even from the impressive race leader Steven Kruijswijk, would not be out of the question.
VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites
1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Tim Wellens
There are just four stages left in the 2015 Vuelta a España, and only three of them have climbs to speak of: anyone who isn’t satisfied with their GC position thus far has to put it all on the line in the next few days. That should make for an exciting finale.
Stage 18 is a lumpy one, and while it may lack a summit finish, don’t underestimate the potential for action. The stage opens with a long false flat, a few rollers, and then a very long false flat (about 30km at a 1% gradient or so) that runs into the first of the stage’s three categorized climbs, the Cat. 3 Alto Santibáñez de Ayllón. After a downhill stretch comes another Cat. 3, and then the next 80 kilometers are a constant succession of short ups and downs that, while uncategorized, will likely inject some fatigue into the legs.
At kilometer 181, the riders will hit the final climb of the day, the cat. 1 Puerto de la Quesera. 10km at 5.2%, it starts out relatively easy before getting a bit more difficult after 4km. From the top, it’s only 13km to the finish, downhill all the way to the line.
In terms of the stage win, this one looks tailormade for the breakaway. The GC favorites put everything on the line on Stage 17 and might be bringing a bit of fatigue into the day, and without a summit finish, there might be bit less pace in the peloton late in the afternoon.
Alessandro De Marchi already has one breakaway stage victory in this Vuelta and a few of the days ahead will offer more opportunities for De Marchi’s aggressive brand of racing. He’s not a sprinter, nor is he an elite climber compared to the jersey hopefuls, but he’s excellent on rolling terrain.
Giovanni Visconti has the multi-fateced skillset to win. And a nice finishing kick to place highly at the line. Movistar politics are the big unknown here. but if he’s in the lead group near the end of the day, he’s a rider to watch.
Europcar has landed riders in break over and over agains in this Vuelta and this stage should continue that trend. Cyril Gautier has a strong track record on small climbs like this and Romain Sicard is having a great run so far.
Lampre-Merida’s Rubén Plaza took a Tour de France stage victory in July bolstered by his ability to put in a good performance on lumpy terrain. Caja Rural’s José Goncalves is well-suited to the parcours, though the team has so many options it’s hard to pick just one. Adam Hansen, Julien Simon, Stephen Cummings, and Niki Terpstra are others could be looking to win the early battle to get into the break.
Alejandro Valverde has to be to the top favorite if the red jersey hopefuls are fighting it out for the stage victory. With a sprint that is so much better than that of his rivals, he’s looking strong again, so the climbs shouldn’t trouble him.
Joaquím Rodriguez is also well-suited to success on the parcours. He needs to make something happen as soon as possible to still hold on to his slim chance at the red jersey. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if he tries something on the final climb.
VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites
1. Alessandro De Marchi | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. José Goncalves
Simon Geschke’s Stage 17 breakaway win concluded just the first of four tough Alpine stages. With another day at the Tour de France comes another day in the mountains. Stage 18 features more categorized climbs (seven in total) than any stage in the Tour de France, and a few of them are quite challenging.
The climbing starts right away with the 6.3km, 7%-gradient Col Bayard, which will certainly see some action as riders try to get into an early move. After the top of the climb and a descent thats eases into a stretch of more gentle downhill, the profile is up and down for the rest of the day. Three Cat. 3 climbs lead into the Cat. 2 Col de la Morte, only 3.1km in length but with a harsh 8.4% average gradient.
From the top it’s a very steep descent of about 15 kilometers, after which the road angles upward again, climbing for a not-insignificant stretch to the official start of the Col du Glandon.
21.7km a 5.1%, and coming after a bit of uncategorized climbing at that, the Cat. 1 Col du Glandon is an irregular ascent with numerous stretches that get up near and over 10%. There are plenty of places to attack on the very long way up, and the sheer magnitude of the climb will make it an unpleasant trip for everyone involved.
The riders will have already been going uphill for a while by the time they hit the official start of the very long Col du Glandon, which has a number of very steep stretches to inject some serious hurt into the legs.
But the day doesn’t end at the top of the climb—a 20km descent follows into the final climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Lacets de Montvernier. 3.4km at 8.2%, it’s one last jumping off point for the punchy, enterprising riders in this Tour, with the top of the ascent coming 10km from the finish.
So many categorized climbs, and so many short steep stretches, will make Stage 18 an attackers’ playground. Expect to see plenty of action on the earlier climbs. If the morning aggressors are reeled in, expect to see plenty more attackers on the Col de la Morte and then the Col du Glandon. It could be some time before a solid break is formed. And even if the early break is reeled in sometime before the final 20km, the Lacets de Montvernier will be a great launching pad for one last strike for glory.
The Tour has already seen plenty of big, successful breakaway moves, with Sky and Movistar content to fight it out in the GC battle well behind the breaks. The fact that the hardest climb of the day comes so far from the line might help temper the pace in the peloton. Controlling this stage will be a big challenge anyway, given the profile. With so many strong climbers well out of the overall race leadership competition, it seems likely that plenty of talented riders will find themselves up the road on battling for Stage 18 from a long-range move. Only a serious injection of pace from the pack on the Col du Glandon can keep this together.
In any case, the Stage 18 winner will almost certainly be a top-notch climber with good descending skills as well. Joaquim Rodríguez tried and tried again to get up the road on Stage 17 but the peloton kept reeling in the early moves. I’m betting he’ll resume that effort on Stage 18. Of the strong climbers in the Tour de France who aren’t any GC threat whatsoever, Rodríguez is one of the very strongest. He should thrive on this brutal day, and he doesn’t even need to attack on the Col du Glandon if he doesn’t want to, since the short but very steep test near the end of the stage suits him perfectly. The finishing straight even kicks up slightly to favor him in a late uphill sprint if he finds himself in that situation. As always, the question mark will be whether Purito gets up the road. If he’s there, he’s a major threat.
Romain Bardet kept the powder dry on Stage 17, but he could try to go on the move on Stage 18. This profile doesn’t suit him quite as much, but he’s still among the top climbers in the race, and he has plenty of motivation to get something out of the Tour before it leaves the Alps. Alternatively, AG2R could send Alexis Vuillermoz up the road here instead. Vuillermoz has shown in the past that he’s capable on the long, hard climbs, and the steep final climb suits him very well.
Ryder Hesjedal has been active in the breakaways in 2015 Tour but he hasn’t been particularly successful. He’ll have another chance here on a stage that suits his characteristics. Teammate Dan Martin is another solid candidate for long-range success—the profile, especially the late climb, is a good one for him. Unfortunately, Martin suffered from illness in the second week of the Tour, and his current form is a question mark. Andrew Talansky will probably be a bit exhausted after Stage 17 but he is, at his best, a Grand Tour GC rider who should have the endurance for back-to-back hard days if he has it in his mind to get involved here.
BMC’s Samuel Sánchez has been quietly riding an excellent Tour de France, currently sitting 13th overall despite riding in support of Tejay van Garderen for most of the race. Now that his team leader has abandoned the Tour, Sánchez could look to go on the move. It’s hard to imagine a better profile for the elite descender and punchy climber. If Sánchez can get up the road, he’ll be a top favorite for stage honors. Damiano Caruso is worth keeping an eye on as well.
Europcar, a team looking for a 2016 sponsor, has yet to come away with a stage victory in this Tour, but this is a golden opportunity. Pierre Rolland tried to get into the break on Stage 17 and could look to get on the move again on Stage 18. Cyril Gautier doesn’t have a Tour de France white jersey in his palmarès, but he may be an even better bet. The up and down suits him very well. Tommy Voeckler isn’t what he once was as a racer but this is a great profile for him as well.
Jakob Fuglsang is among the top climbers in the Tour and way down on GC; if he were clear in his motivations of taking every opportunity available to go stagehunting from the break, he’d be a strong pick—but he’s been very quiet since his 2nd-place finish on Stage 12. If he’s up there, he’s a strong contender but he might be waiting a little bit longer to go for it . . . or he might even have resigned himself back to being a domestique again that Vincenzo Nibali seems set on fighting for the Top 5.
Jarlinson Pantano (who is surprisingly fast at the line), Rigoberto Urán, Jan Bakelants, Wilco Kelderman, Michael Rogers, Rafal Majka, Thibaut Pinot, and, if he’s not too exhausted, Stage 17 winner Simon Geschke are other riders worth watching as potential candidates to take a Stage 18 victory from afar.
Tony Gallopin would be one of my top contenders from the breakaway for this stage but he has shown very little interest in getting up the road in this race, and he’s looked exhausted in the past few days. The profile suits him but I’m not sure he’s got the strength at this point. On the flipside, don’t rule out Peter Sagan—the HC-rated climb of the Col du Glandon is very difficult and not really Sagan’s style, but he’s looked to be incredibly strong this month and if he can hold on over the top of the climb he’s got a great shot at the stage win if he’s in the lead group.
Should the main breakaway be reeled in by the peloton on Stage 18, Alejandro Valverde will be an obvious favorite with the late short climb and then the flat finish. He excels in both scenarios. If Robert Gesink can hold on over the day’s challenging climbs, he’s another rider to keep an eye on late in the day. The Top 5 is a real possibility and Gesink has some punch.
Vincenzo Nibali will also like the look of the profile, given the very long descent on tap late in the day, followed by the short ramp that could provide an opportunity to go on the attack if he hasn’t distanced the GC men yet, though Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana are always potential stage winners themselves when there are mountains involved.
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 18.
Sacha Modolo and the sprinters had their day on Stage 17, but now it’s back to the climber-friendly profiles. Stage 18 starts out flat, with stretch of 120 kilometers without any categorized ascending, but then the road kicks upward in the form of the vicious Monte Ologno climb, 10.4km at a very steep 9% average gradient. It’s followed by a bit of up and down before a long, fast descent into a flat final 5km.
The only categorized climb on the day is a tough one that should see GC action, but with two very hard mountain days to come, the GC types may allow the breakaway riders some leeway on this stage. And even if the early break is caught on the slopes of the climb, Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana may allow fringe overall contenders to get some space. In any case, the rider who wins this stage will need to have strong climbing skills, strong descending skills, and, probably, a decent finishing kick.
Several big-name all-rounders sitting outside the real GC contender conversation will be among the favorites, given the likelihood that this stage goes to a non-pink-jersey threat with an aggressive streak. Giovanni Visconti has all the necessary tools to thrive on this parcours, and he’s far enough back on the overall leaderboard that he may be able to ride ahead unchecked. He has been strong so far in this race. Teammate Beñat Intxausti may look to get up the road as well with the KOM points on offer at the top of the climb, and if he’s up there with enough of a gap, he might see if he can stretch an advantage to the finish line.
Carlos Betancur will be watching Intxausti closely. The Colombian still has a chance at the mountains classification, and this stage suits him very well given his explosive finishing kick. Either from the morning break, from a late move, or even from a reduced bunch coming to the line together, Betancur will be dangerous on Stage 18.
Ryder Hesjedal has been very active so far in the race, and despite being 10th overall now, he’s still no threat to the pink jersey and may be allowed to go up the road. Few of the other likely breakaway contenders can match him on this climb.
Ilnur Zakarin, Darwin Atapuma, Franco Pellizotti, Esteban Chaves, Mikel Nieve, Luis Leon Sanchez, and Stefano Pirazzi are others who could try to get up the road and win Stage 18 with a long-range move.
Steven Kruijswijk was a breakaway fixture early on in this race, but he’s managed to work his way into the GC picture and will probably be focused more on consolidating his gains there than trying to force his way up the road here. He’s still a threat if given space on the climb.
The Monte Ologno is difficult enough that we could see Alberto Contador and Mikel Landa and teammate Fabio Aru battling again, both for GC positions and potentially even for the stage win. If none of them is able to get separation, a very strong Yuri Trofimov might be able to slip away. Damiano Caruso and Rigoberto Urán will be among the top options to take the stage if it comes down to a sprint in a reduced bunch.
VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites
1. Giovanni Visconti | 2. Carlos Betancur | 3. Mikel Landa
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 18 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
