Stage 19: Albertville › Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc – 146km
A breakaway is never a sure thing, but Friday’s stage looks great for the early escape, coming on the heels of a tough TT, with a profile that should make the racing hard to control, and a mountain stage still on the horizon to temper the pace among the GC riders.
Though there are strangely no KOM points on offer at the summit, the uncategorized opening climb could day’s move could jump clear. From there the riders will have to deal with four categorized ascents en route to the finish line atop the final challenge. The last two climbs are the most important of the stage. The HC rated Montée de Bisanne probably comes too far from the line to spring a winning move, but at 8.2% for 12.4km, it will definitely whittle down both the break and the GC men.
The finishing climb, 9.8km at 8%, will likely see any organized groups shatter into ones and twos. It’s not that long, but I expect it to favor the real climbing specialists.
Rafal Majka is a great candidate for success in Stage 19. I’ve said before that I see him as the best climber out of the obvious breakaway types right now, and that makes him a strong contender here.
The same is true for Ilnur Zakarin, who looked brilliant in Stage 17. He’s really shown himself to be a top-notch climber of the course of the last year and a half.
I have a hard time rating Jarlinson Pantano’s chances, but he’s certainly a rider to watch. Three weeks ago I might have said this stage was a bit challenging for Pantano to be a top favorite but he’s looked so good in this Tour that the sky is really the limit right now.
Vincenzo Nibali, Pierre Rolland, Dani Navarro, Rui Costa, Warren Barguil, and Tom Dumoulin are others who stand out as clear long-range candidates, while Tejay van Garderen, now 17 minutes down on GC, might be a rider to watch from the breakaway at this point as well.
Should this come down to the GC men, Chris Froome is an obvious favorite, though if he follows the approach of past Tours de France he may be content to play things relatively conservatively now. That makes Richie Porte especially dangerous, given how strong he’s looked the past few days. Fabio Aru, Romain Bardet, and, of course, Nairo Quintana are others who could find themselves in the hunt for the stage win.
VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites
1. Rafal Majka | 2. Ilnur Zakarin | 3. Chris Froome
Friday’s stage is a short but brutal one. The route includes just two categorized climbs, but one of them (the first one) ascends to the highest point in the race. Moreover, that climb, the Colle d’Agnello, is preceded by around 50 kilometers of … climbing. All told, it’s around 70 kilometers of ascending with an average grade over 3%, with the official climb itself scaling just over 21km at just under 7%.
If that’s not enough to exhaust the riders, the summit is followed by a fast descent that runs right to the foot of the day’s other climb, a Cat. 1 ascent to Risoul. It’s 12.85km at again just under 7%.
As short as it is, the stage will be raced hard from the gun, and on these gradients, I think we are likely to see plenty of riders blow up. In terms of the battle for the stage win, I think the breakaway and the general classification riders have roughly equal chances of fighting it out Friday, but among the GC riders there are far fewer riders on the list of favorites so I’ll start there.
Steven Kruijswijk has looked like the best climber so far in this Giro. He also really wants to win a stage—he’s definitely among the top contenders for Stage 19. However, I don’t think he’ll risk throwing away the pink jersey to chase down an attack from someone three minutes down on GC unless it’s really necessary, which is why I like Esteban Chaves a bit better for this stage. The Colombian has been very strong the past two weeks and this is his terrain. The same could be said for Ilnur Zakarin, another rider who will likely get a bit of room to roam.
Alejandro Valverde looks much better than he did a week ago as well. He’s a candidate for the victory, and so is Vincenzo Nibali. The former Giro winner hasn’t shown the kind of form we’d expected of him at the start of the race, but he’s always a threat.
It’s never easy to predict a breakaway winner but a few strong candidates have emerged over the course of the Giro. Mikel Nieve, Nicolas Roche, David López, Darwin Atapuma, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Alessandro De Marchi, Giovanni Visconti, and Joe Dombrowski are other potential stage winners.
The Vuelta’s 19th stage, much like the Vuelta’s 18th stage, looks like a great day for the breakaway artists. The rouleurs will have this one final chance at a Vuelta stage win before a Stage 20 that will favor the strong climbers and then the sprinters’ Stage 21—that should make for an exciting battle.
The profile is a lumpy one, but there are only two categorized climbs on the menu. The first 70km are very slightly uphill. The comes a succession of rollers that lead into the first official climb of the day, the Cat. 3 Alto de Valdavia. Then comes a long stretch of mostly downhill roads with a few little climbs along the way, running in to a short flat section from kilometer 140 to kilometer 150. From there, the road angles upward again for several kilometers, with a stretch of uncategorized climbing and then the Cat. 2 Alto de la Paramera, 8.7km at 4.5%. It’s not the hardest climb in the world but the uncategorized run-in will make it significantly more challenging, and the length is likely to rule out most of the sprinters on this stage.
After the KOM summit there are 19 mostly kilometers to the finish. It’s downhill most of the way, before the road angles upward in the last 2.5km, with a stretch of roughly 6% in the beginning before the gradients get a bit lower in the final km.
The long climb that comes relatively close to the finish will probably be too much for the sprinters, but not hard enough to spur all that much GC excitement in the leadup. That makes this an excellent day for the breakaway specialists, which of course means that there are no real favorites for Stage 19, though there are a few candidates for breakaway success whose chances look to be particularly strong.
After two and a half weeks of riding as a loyal Movistar lieutenant, Giovanni Visconti finally showed some interest in getting up the road on Stage 18, but he missed the main move and then found the task of bridging to the group to be too much. With that motivation in mind, he has to be among the top contenders for Stage 19. He can climb with the GC favorites on a good day, and also has a nice sprint, particularly in a hilly finale, making him dangerous here. José Joaquín Rojas made the breakaway on Stage 18, and if he has recovered well enough he’s a candidate from the break too.
Caja Rural’s José Goncalves couldn’t quite bridge to the leaders in the waning moments of Stage 18, but he’ll have another chance here if he’s got some energy left in the tank. This finish suits him perfectly. Pello Bilbao is another strong option for Caja Rural.
Julien Simon tends to fly under the radar, putting in Top 10s here and there but rarely nabbing a big win, but this stage suits him down to the ground. He can survive a climb, and he’s a very fast finisher, especially with a slight gradient at the line.
Alessandro De Marchi and Darwin Atapuma would prefer a more difficult parcours but both are strong in a breakaway scenario. The same is true for Cyril Gautier and Romain Sicard, who are running out of chances to deliver a Vuelta a España win for Europcar after several near misses.
Rubén Plaza and Kristijan Durasek are both excellent options for Lampre. Plaza won a not-dissimilar stage in the Tour this year.
Luis León Sánchez, Adam Hansen, Daryl Impey, Simon Gerrans, and Stephen Cummings are others to watch out for as potential candidates for long-range success on Stage 19.
If this does come down to the pack, a bunch sprint seems unlikely. John Degenkolb is the clear favorite in that scenario, but it’s more probable that the likes of Alejandro Valverde and Daniel Moreno (along with the faster finishers mentioned above who don’t make it into the break) battle it out for the stage from a more select group.
VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites
1. Giovanni Visconti | 2. José Goncalvez | 3. Julien Simon
Stage 19: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne › La Toussuire – 138km
The Tour de France is now halfway through its Alpine stretch and the climbs aren’t getting any easier on Stage 19.
Just like Stage 18, Stage 19 kicks off with climbing right from the gun. The Cat. 1 Col de Chaussy is 15.4km long at 6.3%, quite a challenge to take on in the first hour of the day. From the top it’s a long descent into a long flat section of a little over 25km, which ends at the foot of the massive Col de la Croix de Fer.
Anyone who struggles to make it up the brutally long Col de la Croix de Fer will be in for a tough day—it’s still over 50km from the top to the finish line, with two hard climbs along the way.
22.4km at 6.9%, the Croix de Fer is a huge challenge to overcome, with a particularly steep midsection that jumps into double digits for a little while.
After the summit comes a descent into the short, Cat. 2 Col du Mollard (5.7km at 6.8%). From there it’s a a long downhill that runs right into the foot of the La Toussuire climb, the final ascent of the day. 18km at 6.1%, it’s pretty challenging as Cat. 1 climbs go. The steepest part as at the very beginning, with things easing off slightly near the finish line.
Despite the hard climbs on the profile, Stage 19 is actually quite short, so expect a day of high-speed racing.
Breakaways have enjoyed their own opportunities to fight for stage victories two days in a row now, and the Stage 19 profile is another that will look appealing to the aggressive types, with the hardest climb of the day so far from the finish and plenty of testy descending in between its summit and the finish. On the other hand, the long final climb will require the breakaway riders to have a hefty advantage to stay clear, and this is the penultimate opportunity for the GC men to try to make something happen on the overall leaderboard, which could spur some into action. Even if Movistar isn’t going to be all that aggressive, we’ve seen the fringe GC contenders getting active in the mountains, which has the domino effect of spurring the outside GC contenders to go on the chase, with the top GC contenders then getting into gear to follow.
What’s more, the Stage 18 breakaway included almost all of the top potential Alpine breakaway contenders, which might leave many of them a bit tired. This will be another big day for the KOM contenders, which could inspire some of those who were on the move on Stage 18 to take up the march again on Stage 19, but it’s hard to say who will be that interested in putting themselves through the hell of a real stage victory bid in the breakaway once again.
If a strong group of top-notch climbers gets clear, they’ll have a chance at winning this from afar, but otherwise, the GC men could have their day on Stage 19.
Nairo Quintana has not been able to drop Chris Froome so far in this Tour de France, but with the dangerous 1-2 punch of Alejandro Valverde, he has the chance to put some serious pressure on the race leader in the Alps. It likely won’t make a difference on the GC unless Froome crashes or gets sick (which could happen), but a nabbing a stage while he’s hunting for seconds on the overall leaderboard seems like a real possibility. In 2013, Froome allowed Quintana to get up the road in the final week to take back a little bit of time, and if that formula holds here, Quintana could skip clear on the last climb of the day to take a stage victory. Alejandro Valverde, sitting in 3rd, seems a bit less likely to launch a suicide attack since he’s never actually landed a podium performance in the Tour in his long career, but his powerful finishing kick makes him a threat if things are still together at the top of the final climb.
If Froome decides that he wants a stage victory, he will be very difficult to stop, as he’s been unbeatable on the climbs so far in this Tour de France; as such, he can never be counted out. However, with just two more mountain stages left in the race, Froome could decide to play this rather conservatively.
Alberto Contador has tried to go on the move in the Alps already, but he can’t quite get any separation. The legs just haven’t been there. Still, if Froome focuses all his attention on Movistar, the Giro-winner could steal a march on the other GC favorites. The same is true for Vincenzo Nibali, though the Italian isn’t at his best.
Robert Gesink’s strong form, fast finish, and non-threatening position a bit further down the leaderboard make him a nice candidate to try to make something happen out of the GC group on the final climb. The same is true for Bauke Mollema, though the form hasn’t quite been as strong for Mollema in this Tour de France.
If the early breakaway stays clear, it will likely include plenty of familiar long-range attackers. Jakob Fuglsang has now missed out on two stage wins from the breakaway, and the most recent one will likely have him fired up for another shot. A collision with a race moto took Fuglsang down on the hardest climb of Stage 18, and chasing back onto the breakaway group left him burnt out for the final battle for the stage victory. It also kept him from collecting as many points in the KOM competition, leaving him sitting 3rd in that classification. Fuglsang will likely try very hard to get into the break on one or both of the next two stages in the hunt for KOM points and a stage victory, and the long, challenging climbs of Stage 19 suit him very well.
Joaquim Rodríguez is currently tied with Romain Bardet (just ahead of Fuglsang) on KOM points and will have to get up the road again if he wants to win the competition. He won the early battles for points on Stage 18 but then faded on the Col du Glandon. However, Rodríguez has said that he missed a feed before taking on the climb and then suffered a hunger knock, which shouldn’t hold him back on Stage 19. Plus, he won’t have nearly the effort in his legs that many of his breakaway rivals continued to put in all the way to line. He’s definitely a candidate for success.
So is Bardet, though the young Frenchman may be a bit more conservative in his racing (and he may be more of a marked man) now that he’s holding on to a Top 10 on GC. A monumental effort to win Stage 19 with a solo attack from over 40km out won’t help either. He’s definitely a threat and will be a favorite if he can get into the break, but back-to-back stage wins from the break in the Alps is an extremely challenging feat.
Unlike the aforementioned trio, Pierre Rolland probably won’t expend energy trying to pick up KOM points if he gets into the Stage 19 breakaway. He’s got to be a bit tired after a tough Stage 19, but like Fuglsang he’ll be motivated by the missed opportunity and will likely be very interested in getting on the move in the penultimate mountain stage of the 2015 Tour.
Thibaut Pinot, Tanel Kangert, Serge Pauwels, Ryder Hesjedal, Andrew Talansky, Samuel Sánchez, Rafal Majka, Winner Anacona, Adam Yates, and Rafael Valls and Rigoberto Urán (two of the few likely breakaway hopefuls who didn’t spend much energy on Stage 18) are other potential candidates for long-range success on Stage 19.
VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites
1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Jakob Fuglsang | 3. Pierre Rolland
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 19.
Philippe Gilbert took a hard-fought victory at the end of a challenging Stage 18 but things don’t get any easier in the Giro’s 19th stage, among the hardest days in the whole Giro due to its length and climb-filled finale.
The first 150 of its 236 total kilometers are mostly flat except for a single short Cat. 3, but then things change dramatically. After 150km, the peloton will hit the first of three Cat. 1 climbs that come in rapid succession to conclude the stage. First up is the Saint-Barthélemy climb, 16.5km at 6.7%. Then the riders will take on a fast descent into the foot of the Col Saint-Pantaléon, also 16.5km but steeper, with a 7.2% average gradient. After that it’s a short downhill to the foot of the Cervinia climb to the summit finish, 19.2km at a 5% gradient. The toughest sections are midway through the climb, with things flattening out near the very top.
Stage 19 would be a long day even without the uphill challenges, but with so many kilometers of climbing, it will be positively brutal. Such a climber-friendly profile will likely spark action among the GC types who have just this stage and the day after it remaining to make something happen in this race. And while Alberto Contador may have the pink jersey virtually locked up, he may still be looking for a stage victory. Those things being the case, the GC teams in the bunch may put pressure on the breakaway and ultimately fight it out amongst themselves, though a strong break will appreciate the serrated-edge look of the parcours.
Contador is far and away the best all-rounder in the race, and he showed on Stage 18 that he isn’t content to sit around waiting to be crowned champion in Milan. He wants to dominate this race, and he’ll have an opportunity here. On these climbs, which might wear down weaker pretenders, Contador should have ample opportunity to put the hammer down if he really wants to.
Mikel Landa has been the only climber who has come close to matching Contador’s strength in this race, and he will have a chance at a third Giro stage win here if Contador is unwilling to expend the energy required to keep him in check. Astana teammate Fabio Aru hasn’t looked as strong these past few days as he did at the start of the race, so Landa is probably Astana’s best hope here, though there is always the possibility Aru may now be the one allowed to slip away in pursuit of the Stage 19 victory while Contador has his eye on Landa.
Should the other GC types near the top of the leaderboard be given any breathing room on the late climbs, Yuri Trofimov has looked very strong recently. He has a lot of ground to make up on Aru but the podium is not completely out of the question, which will be excellent motivation for Trofimov. Leopold König should appreciate these sorts of climbs if he’s feeling strong, as should Steven Kruijswijk, who could be looking to continue his aggressive approach now that he’s wearing the blue KOM jersey.
Ryder Hesjedal is now firmly inside the GC Top 10 but he’s far enough outside of the pink jersey picture that he’s been given opportunities to get up the road. Assuming he still as the energy after a strong effort on Stage 18, he will almost certainly attempt something long-range from whatever group he is in, and he may have a shot at the early breakaway.
For other potential long-range winners, look for other names that have become familiar in the breakaway conversation so far: Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti and Beñat Intxausti (who will be on the lookout for KOM points), AG2R’s Carlos Betancur, Katusha’s Ilnur Zakarin, Sky’s Mikel Nieve, Bardiani’s Stefano Pirazzi, BMC’s Darwin Atapuma, and Androni Giocattoli’s Franco Pellizotti.
VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites
1. Alberto Contador | 2. Mikel Landa | 3. Yuri Trofimov
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 19 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
Stage 19: Salvaterra do Miño › Cangas do Morrazo – 180.5 km
Following a Stage 18 with a pair of Cat. 2s as the only categorized climbs on the menu (Fabio Aru landed the victory) comes Stage 19, where two Cat. 2s are, again, the only categorized climbs on the profile. Their placement will make for a different sort of race, however. One comes right in the middle of the stage, and the other is crested with 15 kilometers still to go before the finish line. It could be a launching pad for attacks, but only a very strong move will have a chance of surviving all the way to the line. Following that final categorized ascent comes a fast descent, a few kilometers of flat, a slightly bumpy stretch, and then a flat final kilometer.
The parcours will be too much for the pure sprinters to handle, but probably not difficult enough to offer much of an opportunity for a GC shakeup. That makes Stage 19 an excellent opportunity for the morning breakaway to get the victory, which of course means that the list of potential protagonists for stage success is quite long and varied.
Orica-GreenEdge is likely to be the biggest challenge that anyone who gets up the road early will have to face. An impending mountain stage and the final time trial will temper any motivation the GC teams might have had to put in a lot of work, and that will give the early aggressors a big advantage. OGE, however, will want to control the race, in an effort to bring about a sprint and one final chance for Michael Matthews to pick up another win in this Vuelta a España. If the morning move is reeled in, the Australian squad will have probably played a major role in making the catch. The final climb is hard, but Matthews has amazing climbing legs right now, and if it is indeed the main bunch that is contesting this stage victory, he’ll be the top favorite for what will likely be a reduced sprint finish. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb might have a chance of holding on in that scenario but it will be a lot to ask. Fast-finishing Alejandro Valverde and Wilco Kelderman may be more likely challengers for stage honors if the breakaway is swallowed up before the end of the day. Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Moreno, Dan Martin, Samuel Sanchez, and Fabio Aru are others likely to be riding in (what’s left of) the main peloton who have the strength to survive the final climb and then get involved in a reduced sprint.
Philippe Gilbert is one of several versatile, punchy riders who could be looking to get into a long-distance move on Stage 19. If Gilbert sees an opportunity to break free from the pack early, he’ll be very dangerous in this sort of finale. Then again, he’ll be dangerous if he decides to stay with the pack as well. The ability to win in either scenario makes him a strong contender here.
Luis Leon Sanchez, who, unless he abandons the race for some reason, will win the Vuelta’s King of the Mountains classification, is another rider who could find success from afar here. He’s ridden well in the hunt for the KOM jersey so far, and he’d love to add a stage win to go with that achievement. Strong in a solo move or in a sprint, he’s well-suited to this profile.
So is Ryder Hesjedal, who already has a breakaway stage win in this Vuelta. Should he get into the day’s move, he’ll be a top contender with this very steep late challenge and with the great form he has shown in the past few days.
Katusha’s Alexandr Kolobnev has been out front in this race before, and, riding for a team that really should have won something in this race already, he’ll be motivated to put it on the line as opportunities for victories are running out. He’s very dangerous in a reduced sprint.
Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, Lampre-Merida’s Filippo Pozzato and Damiano Cunego, Astana’s Alexey Lutsenko and Mikel Landa, OGE’s Adam Yates, Trek’s Fabio Felline and Jasper Stuyven, OPQS’s Wout Poels, Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, and Europcar’s Romain Sicard are others who could be in the mix should the morning breakaway go the distance on Stage 19.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Michael Matthews | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Luis Leon Sanchez
