Tag: Stage 20

Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Benidorm › Alto de Aitana – 193.2km

It’s time for the final mountain stage of the 2016 Vuelta. The profile doesn’t disappoint. Saturday’s 193.2km trek throws one Cat. 2 after another at the peloton over the course of the afternoon to wear the riders down before a grueling final climb.

The 5.9% average gradient of the Alto de Aitana is not all that intense, but at 21km, after so many prior ascents, it’s going to hurt. Plus, the final few kilometers are a bit steeper than the rest of the climb, providing a perfect launching pad for attacks. We should see plenty of them.

As far as the stage battle, I like the chances of the GC favorites a bit more than the break, simply because I expect the overall contenders to be going really hard up that final climb. There are several riders who have a chance to move up before Madrid. On the other hand, this has been a good Vuelta for breaks and this up-and-down profile does suit an early escape, so don’t be surprised to see a long-distance winner either.

Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will likely go head-to-head in the last 10km or so, and both of them (I give Froome a slight edge) have a shot at the stage win—but I especially like the chances of the riders slightly further down on GC. I think the two riders at the top of the leaderboard might allow the likes of Esteban Chaves, Simon Yates, or Alberto Contador to get some breathing room should one of them launch an attack. Chaves needs time badly, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him crossing the line first, though maybe not far enough ahead of Contador to get back onto the podium.

If it comes down to a long-range attack, it’s up to the usual breakaway suspects. Robert Gesink, Leopold König, Kenny Elissonde, Mathias Frank, Gianluca Brambilla, Egor Silin are probably the strongest candidates, with Darwin Atapuma, Thomas De Gendt, Luis León Sánchez, and Alexandre Geniez in with a shot too.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Esteban Chaves | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Nairo Quintana

September 10, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Megève › Morzine-Avoriaz – 146.5km

The final mountain stage of the Tour is upon us! It’s an intriguing way to close out the GC battle—the profile is certainly a tough one, but the stage ends with a high-octane descent into a flat finish, so anyone hoping to pick up time will have to be aggressive well before the line.

The Col de Joux Plane, the HC-rated final climb of the Tour, is 11.6km long at 8.5%. The second half of the climb has several stretches that hit double-digit gradients, though only just, as it’s a pretty steady ascent.

The descent has some tricky corners and it’s steep, so there’s opportunity for a risk-taker to get an advantage there as well.

Stage 20 is yet another day that will give the breakers a good shot at glory, so I’ll start with the long-distance candidates. Rafal Majka, as ever, is a rider to watch, though it’s tough to say how much Friday’s efforts will have taken out of him. The same could be said for Thomas De Gendt, Jarlinson Pantano, Rui Costa, Pierre Rolland, and Dani Navarro.

I am particularly interested in Vincenzo Nibali. As Rio draws closer, I have to assume the Shark is honing his form, and this stage suits him perfectly. If he can make the break, he’ll be very hard to beat. Ilnur Zakarin also kept his powder dry Friday and could be a threat.

Chris Froome probably deserves to headline the conversation of potential stage winners out of the GC crowd, but I would imagine he’s planning to play this stage pretty safe, especially after crashing yesterday. In other words, I don’t really know what to expect in terms of his battling for the win.

Romain Bardet is an obvious threat here, given the ability he showed Friday and the downhill run-in to the line. Movistar has options with a rallying Nairo Quintana and an Alejandro Valverde who will probably be able to win a sprint if it comes to that.

Richie Porte, Joaquím Rodríguez, and Dan Martin are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Chris Froome

July 23, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Guillestre › Sant’Anna di Vinadio – 134km

One last day in the mountains! The GC will be decided Saturday in the Alps across three Cat. 1 ascents and Cat. 3 finale. The climbing starts immediately on a stage that has essentially no flat sections to speak of.

The second and third Cat. 1 climbs are particularly difficult, and actually rather similar. The Col de La Bonette is 22.25km at a mostly steady gradient of just under 7%, while the Colle della Lombarda is 19.85km at a little over 7%. Then comes a sharp descent into the short but steep Cat. 3 climb to the finish.

It’ll be tough to control the race on this profile (a few days ago I had this pegged as a breakaway day), but as close as the GC is, I think it will be the pink jersey hopefuls battling for the stage win in the end.

After a first week full of successful predictions, this Giro has been anything but predictable, with one rider after another appearing to be out of form only to come back with a vengeance a few days later, or looking strong only to falter just when we’re expecting big things. As such, it’s hard to be confident that Vincenzo Nibali will repeat his impressive Stage 19 performance here—but that’s what we have to go on. That, and the fact that he’s the most decorated rider in contention for the pink jersey. He looked quite strong Friday and I expect more Saturday.

Esteban Chaves should be the main competition. I think he’ll hang close with Nibali on these climbs for a while. The big unknown is just how well he’s feeling in the third week of a grand tour. Remember, Chaves has yet to finish on the podium in a three-week race.

Steven Kruijswijk has been so impressive in this Giro, so he can’t be counted out, but his crash left him injured and that makes him tough to name a top favorite for Stage 20. Keep an eye on him, but maybe watch out for Alejandro Valverde instead. He seems to be step behind Chaves in form right now, but this finale suits him perfectly if he can hang on.

Rafal Majka is the other GC rider whose chances I like here. He’ll probably have freedom to attack if he likes, and he tends to thrive on these up-and-down stages.

Should a long-range strike prove successful, watch out for Sky’s Mikel Nieve, Nicolas Roche, Sebastian Henao, and David López, as well as Darwin Atapuma, Alessandro De Marchi, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Joe Dombrowski, and Stefano Pirazzi, among others.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Esteban Chaves | 3. Alejandro Valverde

May 28, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Sint Vincent › Sestriere – 196km

After Fabio Aru stormed back into 2nd place overall with his Stage 19 victory, only one GC-oriented stage remains in the 2015 Giro d’Italia. Stage 20 is all about the Colle delle Finestre, one of the hardest climbs the professional peloton will ride all year.

Stage 20 opens with 150km of flat, which will put some exhaustion into the legs before the brutal ascent to the Cima Coppi, the highest point in the Giro d’Italia. The Colle delle Finestre is 18.5km long with a 9.2% average gradient, and after a very steep short opening stretch, it’s pretty steady all the way up. About halfway to the top, however, the pavement runs out—the final 7.8 kilometers are undertaken on a dirt road. Interestingly enough, after the riders finally make their way to the top, they’ll have more racing to do. The summit is followed by a short but steep descent and then another climb, the 9.2km, 5.4% Cat. 3 ascent to the finish line in Sestriere.

The breakaway may get a lot of space early on in the day, but as this is the last opportunity for any GC riders to get anything done, the pace could kick up at a moment’s notice as the final climb looms—and it’s not over after that. A strong break will have a chance, but enough favorites could be looking to pick up stage wins in the Giro in this last opportunity that the pack will have a good chance of catching the riders up the road.

Alberto Contador has one final chance to win a stage in the race he’s dominated. Just as was the case on Stage 19, the only question on Stage 20 is whether or not he wants to put in the effort. If he does, he should be able to take the victory here—on the incredibly difficult Colle delle Finestre, he should be able to distance his rivals if he is so inclined.

If Contador doesn’t go on the attack, there will be a strong favorites to take up the task. Fabio Aru now has his stage win and he’s back in 2nd place. He seems to have refound some form after a few days of weakness but he might not want to risk his 2nd place with an attack on these unforgiving challenges. Mikel Landa, out of contract for next year and back to 3rd, may have more incentive to go on the move, and if Contador is back to focusing on Aru, that could spring Landa for another stage victory.

Ryder Hesjedal has been very strong these past few stages, but for all his efforts, he’s still outside the Top 5 on GC and lacking a stage win. Expect the same type of aggressive Hesjedal we’ve seen over the last week. He has one last opportunity to make something happen here, and it’s a good one, given the way he’s been going lately.

Steven Kruijswijk has lost the KOM jersey and is in a similar boat to the one Hesjedal is in, outside the Top 5 and without a stage victory, despite some great riding in this Giro. He’ll be a rider to watch as well. Another rider to watch: Yuri Trofimov had a bad day (relatively speaking) on Stage 19 but don’t count out the former mountain biker on the dirt road climb here on Stage 20.

For potential long-range winners, look to the names that have now become familiar in that conversation, names like Beñat Intxausti, Giovanni Visconti, Franco Pellizotti, Carlos Betancur, Esteban Chaves, Darwin Atapuma, Edoardo Zardini, Francesco Bongiorno, and Stefano Pirazzi.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Alberto Contador | 2. Mikel Landa | 3. Ryder Hesjedal

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 20 for the preview of the final stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 29, 2015
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Santo Estevo de Ribas de Sil › Puerto de Ancares – 185.7 km

Following an Adam Hansen victory on a day without many GC implications, Stage 20, the final mountain stage of the 2014 Vuelta a Espana, is here. The parcours should make for quite a showdown. There are four categorized climbs on the profile, and a few more uncategorized challenges, and the constant barrage of ascents will be an uncomfortable experience for a peloton that has been racing for three weeks. The final 32 kilometers are particularly difficult. The Alto de Folgueiras de Aigas is 9.7 kilometers long at an average of 6.7%; just the sort of test to wear out the legs before the vicious final climb of the 2014 Vuelta. The Puerto de Ancares is a monstrous challenge, 12.7 km at 8.7%. Several stretches are significantly steeper (one such stretch, at 12%, comes in the last 2 km), and there aren’t many easy sections to offer respite. The last mountain stage of the last Grand Tour of the year would likely see aggressive riding regardless, but this final climb practically guarantees that the attacks will fly.

The up-and-down second half will make it hard for the peloton to control the race, but as this is the last opportunity for the uphill specialists to shake up the General Classification, the GC men aren’t likely to hold back when the road goes up, which will make it hard for anyone up the road to stay clear. One thing is for certain: it will take an elite pair of climbing legs to win on this stage.

Several very steep sections on the final climb will favor the ultra-lightweight climber types, and few of them are as in-shape right now as race leader Alberto Contador. He’ll be able to follow the attacks, rather than make them, and he’s already shown how dangerous that makes him. His rivals will certainly throw everything they have at him, but when it’s mattered most in this race, Contador has not shown much weakness on the climbs.

Chris Froome has gotten much stronger over the course of this Vuelta, and he’s not going to let this chance to move up the leaderboard get away without a fight. The profile may look to suit some of his rivals a bit better, but Froome has looked strong enough these past few days that it may not matter. Expect to see him attempt a big attack on Stage 20 to try to open up a sizable gap to the rest of the GC contenders.

Joaquim Rodriguez should appreciate the steep finish. He’s been just a bit less strong on the climbs than he might have hoped coming into the Vuelta, but he’ll still have an opportunity to pick up the stage win here. He’s far enough back on the General Classification now that he may get a little bit of breathing room for Contador and Froome if he tries something.

Alejandro Valverde probably won’t get any space to attempt a move, but he’s still a danger. He seems content to hold wheels and hope for sprints even on the climbs that suit him, and that aversion to major risks, while it has kept him from ever picking up any huge gaps to his GC rivals, does make him a constant danger for stage success.

Fabio Aru will have a great opportunity to add to his tally of stage wins with this steep finale; Contador and Co. have shown on multiple occasions that they won’t chase down his attacks, and that gives him even more of an edge than he already has thanks to his awesome uphill ability. Repeating what’s been said in most of the other mountain stage previews so far, Dan Martin, Samuel Sanchez, Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are others who look strong right now and who will probably have freedom to put in moves from the pack.

It’s always hard to predict potential breakaway protagonists, but at least this profile whittles down the list of realistic long-distance contenders to those with immense uphill talent. Ryder Hesjedal has been on excellent form in the Vuelta so far and this long day of climbing suits his one-time-Grand-Tour-winning skillset perfectly. Przemyslaw Niemiec is another rider with GC-style ability who should have a chance if he goes from afar; Damiano Cunego will be a strong card for Lampre-Merida to play as well. Alessandro De Marchi will love the constant up and down. Louis Meintjes has gotten stronger as this race has progressed, and he’ll have a nice opportunity if he can get into a move here on Stage 20. Romain Sicard, Mikel Landa, Wout Poels, Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves, Laurens Ten Dam, David Arroyo, Cadel Evans, and Mikel Nieve are others who might find success in a long-distance strike.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alberto Contador | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The final preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 20, so stay tuned. Also, don’t miss VH’s coverage the GPs Quebec and Montreal! The Quebec post-race is already up, and the Montreal preview is coming soon!

-Dane Cash

September 12, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20 (ITT): Bergerac › Périgueux – 54 km

Following the victory of Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas on Stage 19, there are only two days of racing left in the 2014 Tour de France. Stage 20 is the Tour’s only time trial. A chrono in the penultimate stage of the race might have been an epic final battle for the yellow jersey, but Vincenzo Nibali has that pretty much wrapped up. The remaining steps on the podium, however, are still in play, and a fierce fight will rage between three riders for those two spots. Stage honors are obviously up for grabs as well.

At 54 kilometers, this is quite a long time trial. The stage has a rolling profile from start to finish, but there are no categorized climbs on the docket; these are not challenging ascents, and they won’t offer much solace to the climbing specialists. The intermittent descents will be taken at pretty high speed, but the route is not terribly technical, which most of the riders will appreciate given a possibility for a bit of rain.

It’s the sort of time trial that favors the high-endurance riders, and one stands head and shoulders above the rest in this race. Reigning ITT World Champ Tony Martin will be the big favorite for the stage. He’s obviously a massive talent, but he’s also in stellar shape right now. On this long course, one tailored towards the real power specialists, it would be a big surprise for anyone to outmatch the German on Stage 20.

Tom Dumoulin is a great young talent, yet another rising star on the Giant-Shimano roster. The 2014 Dutch National Champion can handle a roller or two, making this a nice route for him. He was 2nd to Tony Martin in both time trials in this year’s Tour de Suisse. This chrono is a bit longer than those in which he’s been most successful in the past, but in the absence of many other top specialists against the clock, he’s a contender behind the heavy favorite, Tony Martin.

It’s been some time since Tejay van Garderen has put in a truly stellar time trial, but this has typically been a strong suit of his, and he looks to be on good form now. He should be able to land a top result.

Jean-Christophe Peraud has always been great against the clock, and in the shape he’s in at the moment, he will be another favorite among the GC contenders. Crashing during a rainy time trial ruined his 2013 Tour campaign; hopefully he can overcome that challenge this year.

Vincenzo Nibali has had a lot of success in time trials recently, and the way he’s been riding in this Tour, he’s likely to continue that run of great results. It’s a nice course for him, with a few hills and a chance to shine on the descents. He has shown a desire to assert his dominance at every possible opportunity in the Tour de France, and I don’t think he’ll make an exception on Stage 20.

Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS is not showing the sort of form in this Tour that he displayed early in the season, but in a time trial, all he needs is one good hour in the saddle. At his best he’s an elite chrono talent. The profile suits him perfectly, and he won’t mind a bit of rain either.

Sylvain Chavanel of IAM Cycling has not had a great year but he is the reigning French National Champ in the discipline. This stage is a big target for him. OPQS’s Niki Terpstra, OGE’s Svein Tuft and Luke Durbridge, Sky’s Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, and Vasil Kiryienka, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra and Tanel Kangert, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers, NetApp-Endura’s Jan Barta, and Movistar’s Ion Izagirre are others who could put in strong rides on Stage 20.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is not known for his time trialing skills, but he’s been strong against the clock this year, and on this form (and with the benefit of being able to gauge his efforts against almost every other rider, courtesy of starting late in the day) he could surprise some people. Alejandro Valverde, Spain’s National Champ in the ITT, is a good chrono rider, but he can’t afford to underestimate Pinot’s ability if he wants to stand on the podium in Paris.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Tom Dumoulin

There are only two stages left in this year’s Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of both of them, and of every WorldTour race left on the calendar. Also, check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 20.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 25, 2014