Tag: Stage 21

Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Las Rozas › Madrid – 104.8km

The Vuelta’s final stage is one for the sprinters. The topography offers very little in the way of launching pads for any enterprising attackers. The peloton will get off to a slow start, but the pace should be quite high on the Madrid circuit in preparation for a big bunch kick.

The sprint stages at this Vuelta have been distributed relatively evenly between potential winners, so there is no overwhelming favorite. I see four riders as having almost equal chances at winning. Gianni Meersman is probably my top pick, more because of his leadout than anything—his top speed is not the best, but Etixx teammates should be able to put him into a strong position in a final likely to put a high value on a good leadout train.

Jempy Drucker is another candidate for success based on the way he dominated the sprint that closed out Stage 16. If he can put that kind of speed on display again in Madrid, I wouldn’t expect anyone to beat him. That’s a big “if,” though.

Nikias Arndt has, since the start of the Vuelta, been the rider I figured to be the fastest in top form. He doesn’t appear to be in top form, but he’s shown signs of life recently and he’s taken some nice high-level wins already in his career, so a final-stage victory at the Vuelta would be no surprise.

Magnus Cort Nielsen‘s Stage 18 win was a surprise to me at the time, but given what he achieved there, he has to be a rider to watch as well. We’re still finding out what he can and can’t do, so it’s hard to predict anything for sure, but the potential for another stage win is there.

Jonas Van Genechten, Daniele Bennati, Rudiger Selig, Michael Schwarzmann, Fabio Felline, and Jens Keukeleire are others who may have a chance at the stage victory.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Jempy Drucker | 3. Nikias Arndt

September 11, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Chantilly › Paris – 113km

Somehow, the Tour’s final stage is already upon us. You know the script—although the day gets underway in a new start town (Chantilly), expect about an hour of processional riding into Paris, with champagne glasses and smiles before things heat up.

After an enterprising few get clear in the city circuit, the sprint trains will ramp up the pace and ultimately bring it all together for a high-speed bunch kick on the Champs-Élysées. Sure, a successful escape is possible, but it’s highly unlikely. Stage 21 is all about the sprinters.

With Mark Cavendish out of the race, the battle for the final stage is much more open. I see three riders as prime candidates to win, with Marcel Kittel leading the way. He’s done it before, he’s been decent enough this year, and at his very best he’s probably the fastest sprinter in the world.

André Greipel can run hot and cold, making it tough to pick him to nab consistent victories, but he’s definitely a threat here. He’s looked good, if not great, in a few sprint stages so far this Tour.

Alexander Kristoff is the other speedster that I see with a shot here. He’s come very close to winning on the Champs-Élysées in the past, and critically, he has appeared to get stronger and stronger as this race has gone on. Perhaps he’s peaking just in time for cycling’s biggest sprint showdown.

Peter Sagan will likely be in the mix as he always is. Bryan Coquard, Dylan Groenewegen, John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews, Daniel McLay, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. André Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

July 24, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Cuneo › Torino – 163km

The 2016 Giro d’Italia comes to a conclusion Sunday in Torino. It’s a day that should go to the sprinters, but as we saw in Stage 17, anything is possible at this point in the race, with so many quick men out of the equation.

A hundred kilometers after the peloton sets out from Cuneo, it will roll onto an urban circuit of 7.5km. Each lap includes an early climb of less than 1km at around 5% and then a tricky series of corners, roundabouts, and even one tunnel en route to the finish line.

It’s the sort of finish that will have aggressive riders looking to jump clear, so if the sprinters’ teams aren’t careful, we could see an escapee steal the win.

I still think the most likely scenario is a bunch kick, however, so the list of favorites starts with the two top sprinters left in the race: Giacomo Nizzolo and Sacha Modolo. As I said in Stage 17, I think Nizzolo is stronger right now, and he’s definitely better for this tricky, somewhat lumpy finish. He’s my stage favorite, but as ever, a cautious one, because picking Nizzolo to win a grand tour stage has quite literally never worked out before.

I think much of the blame for that falls on his team’s shoulders. Trek tends to disappear in the final kilometers of sprint stages, as they did in Stage 17, and if that happens here, it could tank Nizzolo’s chances once again. And even if the team is there, Modolo is a tough rival and another strong contender.

Matteo Trentin, Nikias Arndt, JJ Rojas, Heinrich Haussler, Ramunas Navardauskas, and Alexander Porsev are the other speedsters I’ll be watching Sunday.

Keep an eye on the likes of Adam Hansen, Filippo Pozzato, Lars Bak, Stefan Küng, and Moreno Moser in the last few laps — they’re on the list of candidates for a breakaway victory on the day.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Matteo Trentin

May 29, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Alcalá de Henares › Madrid – 98.8km

On the heels of a thrilling Stage 20 that turned the Vuelta upside-down comes the final stage, very likely to end in a straightforward sprint.

Less than a hundred kilometers long and without any real climbs, the final stage of the Vuelta won’t be particularly hard. The main challenge will be the urban roads—after about 40km riding through the suburbs, the peloton will ride into a city circuit for 10 5.8km laps, and there are plenty of twists and turns in store.

Given the profile, a sprint is the likeliest scenario. A few of the quick men have stayed on in the race through the mountains for this opportunity, and they’re likely to put their teams on the front to keep things under control.

John Degenkolb has endured a long and challenging Vuelta without a stage win, but he should be the clear top dog among the sprinters left in the race. In terms of top speed, he’s the proven name here. However, Degenkolb has not been nearly as dominant as expected against a diminished field here, and while I still see him as the favorite, others will have their shot.

Danny Van Poppel is probably the strongest potential challenger to Degenkolb. Trek has had a great Vuelta and the team is highly motivated in the battle for stage wins. While Degenkolb has the edge over most riders here on pure speed, Van Poppel actually comes pretty close, and if he can win the battle for position he’s got a shot at a second Vuelta stage win.

Kristian Sbaragli won a messy Stage 10 to show off his sprinting chops and should be in the mix again on Stage 21. It’s likely to be a pretty hectic finale with all the cornering to be done, and that could help Sbaragli take another win over riders who might be faster in a test of pure speed.

José Joaquín Rojas, Max Richeze, Daniele Bennati, Tosh Van Der Sande, Tom Van Asbroeck, and Jean-Pierre Drucker are the outsiders with a shot in the likely sprint finish.

Of course, a late attack by the likes of Adam Hansen or Sylvain Chavanel can’t be ruled out: it’s been a long Vuelta and it’s possible someone could catch the sprinters’ teams off guard on a circuit that is technical enough to make things interesting.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Danny Van Poppel | 3. Kristian Sbaragli

The final stage of the Vuelta marks the 63rd and final Grand Tour stage preview from VeloHuman this season. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed all the action! Be sure to keep an eye out for the next few episodes of the Recon Ride podcast and for pre-race thoughts on the last few events of the season, and follow @VeloHuman for more analysis.

September 12, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Sèvres › Paris – 109.5km

Chris Froome may have effectively sealed his 2015 Tour de France win, but the race reaches its official conclusion in Paris on Stage 21. Only 109.5km in total, the pack starts in Sèvres and then rides about 40km into Paris, where they begin ten laps of an urban circuit, finishing on the Champs-Élysées. The first third or so of the stage is essentially a procession to celebrate the race and Froome’s all-but-sewn-up overall victory. Once the peloton enters the Paris, riders will start to attempt to break clear of the pack for one last shot at glory in the world’s biggest bike race, and then the sprint teams will gradually wind up the pace. Things get very fast in the final few laps.

The final kilometer of the circuit has a large s-curve that veers left and then right again with around 500 meters to go, but after that it’s a straight run to the line where we can expect a high-speed sprint finale.

With a bit of rain in the forecast for the afternoon, there is a slight chance of wet roads at the finish.

Though the Tour’s final stage always starts out with relative calm, the stage victory in Paris is the most valuable stage win in the sport for the sprinters. There will be plenty of attempts to get clear on the urban roads, but don’t expect any attackers to get too much room. The Champs-Élysées is all about the quick men and a big bunch kick.

On results, one sprinter has been head and shoulders above crowd in this Tour: André Greipel. In a mass sprint, Mark Cavendish, the only rider who has beaten Greipel in a previous bunch kick in the 2015 Tour, looks to be the only one with a real chance of taking him on again on Stage 21.

Greipel definitely has the edge on win record so far in the 2015 Tour—Greipel has a three-to-one win advantage in that department. He’s been on terrific form so far in this race. However, both of Greipel’s first two stage wins came against a poorly-led-out Mark Cavendish, and Greipel’s third win was against a field that did not include Cavendish, who had been dropped from the pack much earlier in the day. Prior to this Tour, the younger Cav has typically had the better of Greipel. In short, there are reasons to like Cavendish’s chances despite his relative lack of success so far.

Both riders are without their main leadout men going into Stage 21, with Lotto-Soudal’s Greg Henderson and Etixx-QuickStep’s Mark Renshaw both having abandoned the race. I see this as almost a dead heat, but based on peak ability and past performances on the Champs-Élysées, I give a very, very slight edge to Mark Cavendish, who has won on this stage plenty of times before.

Behind the two top-tier sprinters in this Tour are plenty of hopeful quick men hoping to steal the day—but it’s hard to like anyone’s chances in this high-speed finale other than the two fastest riders in the race. Peter Sagan has come close in the bunch sprints, in the Top 4 of each of the race’s four bunch kicks so far with two close runner-up rides among those results. For all the talk you’ll hear from observers about him “not being a pure sprinter,” Sagan has an impressive turn of speed and can never be counted out, especially after a few days in the mountains that might have softened the legs of his rivals.

The same is true of John Degeknolb, who ran 2nd behind Greipel on Stage 15. He’s gotten better as the race has gone on, and, as he’s among the toughest sprinters in the peloton, he will probably be less depleted from the Tour’s visit to the Alps than most. Alexander Kristoff has not been as strong in this Tour as he was last year, but he came close to a Champs-Élysées win behind Marcel Kittel in last year’s Tour and also has endurance in spades.

Arnaud Démare, Bryan Coquard, Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others who will have a chance at success in the bunch gallop that will likely close out the 2015 Tour de France.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan

As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2015 Tour de France. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of the Tour, and I have particularly enjoyed hearing from those of you who have reached out to talk racing, to ask for an opinion on your favorite long shot, or just to say hello! I hope you’ll continue to stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the VeloHuman Facebook page.

While the Tour may be reaching its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still previews and podcasts to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for big races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2015. The race preview and the pre-race podcast for the always exciting Clásica de San Sebastián are only a few days away!

-Dane Cash

July 25, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Torino › Milano – 185km

With Fabio Aru’s Stage 20 victory closing out the climber-oriented days of the 2015 Giro d’Italia, just one stage remains in the race.

Stage 21 is pan-flat from the start in Turin to the finish in Milan. It’s a profile the sprinters will love. The racing closes out with seven laps of a 5.4km circuit, and things get a bit technical in the second half of each lap, with multiple corners and a roundabout. That means that the final trip around the circuit will likely be hectic. The last kilometer, however, is a straightaway to the finish line, one that will likely see the big-name sprinters still in this race getting up to some very high speeds.

High-speed finishes are great for Sacha Modolo, whose two stage victories so far in this Giro make him the de facto favorite again here. His leadout support has been outstanding so far in the race, and he’s able to finish it off with a powerful finishing kick. All of the other quick men will have their eyes on the men in fuschia in Milan.

Giacomo Nizzolo is now up seven career 2nd-place finishes in Giro d’Italia sprints, but this may represent the best opportunity he’s ever had to finally take a victory. A technical run-in to the line suits his bike-handling skills, and the long straight finish suits his blazing top speed. The perfect flatness of the profile should help hide one of the weaknesses of his never-ending campaign to finally win a Giro stage: a leadout train that has always disappeared late in the race. Without any climbs to wear them out, Trek will have no excuses for leaving Nizzolo alone in this Stage 21 finale.

Elia Viviani started the Giro hot with a stage win, but he’s cooled since then. Still, for pure speed when at his best, Viviani is right up there with the other top names in this race, and can’t be counted out here.

Luka Mezgec won the final stage of last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he’ll benefit from the an always skilled Giant-Alpecin leadout in the tricky final few kilometers of this stage. He should be up there fighting for the overall win. LottoNL-Jumbo’s Moreno Hofland could be up there as well.

Davide Appollonio, Heinrich Haussler, and Kevin Reza are other riders to watch in the probable sprint finish of Stage 21.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Elia Viviani

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of Stage 21, and check back soon for plenty more pre-race coverage of the Critérium du Dauphiné, the Tour de Suisse, and, of course, the Tour de France.

-Dane Cash

May 30, 2015