Tag: Stage 3

Tour de France 2016: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Granville › Angers – 223.5km

After a brief interlude of excitement on Stage 2, the Tour gets back to sprinter-friendly racing in Stage 3. It’s a long one at 223.5-kilometers, but the only categorized climb is a Cat. 4, 25km in. After that, it’s mostly flat all the way to the finish, where the road does angle upward ever so slightly at around 2.5% for the final kilometer.

Coming into the race I saw this as a Marcel Kittel day with André Greipel close behind (thanks to the stage length), but then Mark Cavendish went and took Stage 1. Still, it’s early. Too early to anoint anyone the clear top dog in the bunch kicks just yet.

Kittel looked strong at Utah Beach, and Greipel was at least in the mix, so I’ll stick with my initial impression for now. Of course, it would be no surprise at all to see Cavendish take this.

The distance could boost Peter Sagan‘s chances a bit. He was very strong in the Stage 2 finale, but perhaps even more impressive was his third-place finish in Stage 1. That bodes well for the sprint stages to come.

Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, Bryan Coquard, Sam Bennett, Dylan Groenewegen, and John Degenkolb could also feature in the bunch sprint likely to close out Stage 3.

VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. André Greipel | 3. Mark Cavendish

July 4, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Nijmegen › Arnhem – 190km

After Marcel Kittel’s Stage 2 victory, Giro fans may be in for a bit of déjà vu on Stage 3. The 190km stage starts in Nijmegen and finishes in Arnhem (the reverse of Saturday’s start/finish location) and only real climb on profile is a single Cat. 4 ,, into likely to have much of an attempt.

With all that said it’s hard not to pick against the rider who won Stage 2, Marcel Kittel.

The German rider should be able to take advantage of the flat parcours and put his impressive kick to the the test. At his best, Kittel is the best sprinter in the world, and at least recently, Kittel has looked very much like the rider who has eight Tour de France stage wins to his name.

André Greipel was not much of a factor on Stage 2, but he’s capable of having a big impact even in this strong field, if he can position himself well for the finale.

Caleb Ewan was also a bit of a disappointment, but it wouldn’t be wise to count the Aussie out on Stage 3.

Sacha Modolo, Arndaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, and Elia Viviani are others with a shot.

VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2 . André Greipel | 3. Caleb Ewan

May 8, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Mijas › Málaga – 158.4km

The third stage of the 2015 Vuelta should give the quick men a chance at glory, if they can make it over a tough climb midway through the day. 158.4km from start to finish, Monday’s Stage 3 is a short one, but the Cat. 1 Puerto del León will challenge the sprinters. 16km at 5.2%, it’s a long way to the top. Fortunately, the fast finishers will have about 80 kilometers after the summit to get back into the bunch if they lose contact.

There is also an uncategorized bump about 10km from the finish, though it is neither particularly long, nor all that steep. The final 4km are pan flat, though somewhat technical with a full about-face turn inside the last 2km.

This early in the race, a sprint finish is almost a certainty, and most of the sprint specialists should make it to the line despite the Cat. 1 halfway along the route.

Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb went head to head several times in last year’s Vuelta, with Degenkolb taking four wins and Bouhanni nabbing two. The two speedsters are set to resume the confrontation in this year’s race starting Monday. I rate Degenkolb’s top-end speed a bit higher than most observers probably do, about on par with Bouhanni’s, though Bouhanni has the edge in a technical finish. However, Bouhanni went down hard on Stage 2 and he may be feeling the effects in the Stage 3 sprint. Without much indication of form this early in the race, I’d give Degenkolb a tiny advantage for this likely showdown due to Bouhanni’s fall, though it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Frenchman took the stage win. If something should happen to Degenkolb, his teammate Luka Mezgec will be a handy alternative for Giant-Alpecin, fast enough even to challenge Bouhanni.

Peter Sagan is certainly among the top names to watch on Stage 3 as well, though his form is a big question mark. Sagan showed last year that he’s quite comfortable taking the Vuelta as a pure training ride and giving up opportunities for stage victories as works his way towards Worlds. If he’s up for it, he’ll be in the mix, but that seems less than likely.

Caleb Ewan, on the other hand, should be fully motivated to go for glory in his first Grand Tour sprint stage. The 21-year-old has all the speed in the world, and should be right up there in the finale with the more experienced favorites if he can position himself properly.

Danny Van Poppel doesn’t have many opportunities to sprint for himself, but he’s looked sharp this year, especially in the past few weeks. He has a shot on Stage 3. The same is true for Kris Boeckmans—the climb could challenge the hefty Belgian, but he has the speed to fight for a sprint win.

Jean-Pierre Drucker, Kristian Sbaragli, Tom Van Asbroeck, Carlos Barbero, JJ Rojas, Max Richeze, and Jasper Stuyven are among the others who will have a shot at the stage win in the likely bunch kick.

VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Caleb Ewan

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 3. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 23, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Antwerp › Huy – 159.5km

Following a thrilling Stage 2 that, despite it’s Greipel-won sprint finale, saw several GC contenders lose chunks of time, the Tour de France will throw another stage with potential GC implications at the peloton early on in the race. The Tour may be leaving the Netherlands but it isn’t leaving the “Low Countries” altogether—Stage 3 will take the riders from Antwerp to Wallonia’s Ardennes region for a finish in Flèche Wallonne territory. The yellow jersey hopefuls will again need to be on their toes with this profile.

It’s not a long stage at 159.5km (not nearly as long as La Flèche Wallonne), but things get bumpy late in the day, especially in the final 20 kilometers, where the pack will hit the Cat. 4 Cote d’Ereffe, and then a quick uncategorized ascent, and then the Cat. 4 Cote de Cherave before the stage finish on the classic Mur de Huy. It’s only 1.3km from the bottom to the top but the winding road up the Mur averages 9.6%, with a 19% section along the way. The Cat. 3 finish will have GC contenders and climbing-oriented stagehunters alike vying for position on the vicious gradient.

Alejandro Valverde won La Flèche Wallonne this year for the third time in his career. An elite climber with a devastating kick uphill, he has to be the favorite here. Very few riders can explode ahead like Valverde on a climb like this, and given his brilliant form all season, there’s little reason to think he won’t be ready for lunch here on Stage 3. The motivation to charge up the Mur will be sky-high after Movistar’s big losses on Stage 2. Teammate Nairo Quintana, top-notch climber that he is, will also be a rider to watch. He doesn’t have the finishing speed that Valverde has, but anything with a gradient in the 9% range is favored terrain for Quintana.

Joaquim Rodríguez is another past Flèche Wallonne winner with a chance. He had a disappointing Ardennes campaign this season but has also shown flashes of brilliance this season (his País Vasco was incredible). He did crash on Stage 2, however, which may have left him a bit banged up coming into this stage.

Dan Martin has never won La Flèche Wallonne, but he’s been close multiple times. After a poor run in this year’s Ardennes, Martin is looking for some success in this Tour, and this is a great stage for him. He should be in the mix for the victory.

Julian Arredondo is typically very strong on this sort of finish, though he’s never actually landed a Flèche Wallonne Top 10. He lost a chunk of time on Stage 2 but will have a shot at redemption here. His teammate Bauke Mollema also has a nice upward kick, with several great results on the Mur in the past.

Orica-GreenEdge has multiple options for Stage 3. Michael Albasini is probably the team’s best bet, as he has done well on this climb in the past, though form is a bit of a question mark for Albasini. Simon Gerrans, excellent in an uphill sprint, is another option. Simon Yates, who has been in great shape pretty much all season long, could surprise people. He doesn’t have much Ardennes experience yet but this is a good profile for him.

World champ Michal Kwiatkowski has had good results on the Mur in the past and could shine in Stage 3. Meanwhile, his teammate Rigoberto Urán is suddenly in the GC conversation after an under-the-radar start. He has a great finishing kick and could continue to surprise people here if he can position himself well to battle it out with the big favorites. Vincenzo Nibali, Wilco Kelderman, Rui Costa, Tim Wellens, and possibly even Peter Sagan will like the profile as well. And don’t count out Chris Froome just because he’s not an Ardennes specialist—this is a steep finishing climb in a Tour de France stage, and that’s reason enough for Froome to be seen as a big threat.

VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Joaquim Rodríguez | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 3. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 5, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Rapallo › Sestri Levante – 136km

With Elia Viviani’s Stage 2 victory kicking off the road racing proper in this Giro d’Italia, the peloton will take on a short but intriguing third stage. Officially, the route only contains two categorized climbs (an early Cat 3. and a later Cat. 2), but for the first 112 kilometers of racing, there is barely a km of flat road. The road goes up and down and up again (with a general skyward trend for the first 92km) for quite a while. Most of the climbing is at a low gradient, but the riders will ascend from seaside Rapallo into the hills and reach an altitude of 1115 meters, the top of the Cat. 2 Barbagelata climb before a long descent to Monleone, after which they’ll only have 23km remaining to the finish. It’s a flat run-in to Sestri Levante and the line, but it won’t be easy getting there.

There aren’t all that many vicious gradients to face here but the Barbagelata climb is no cake-walk, 5.7km at 8%, and it comes after the pack will have already done a great deal of climbing. It is almost a certainty that some of the heavier riders in the peloton will lose contact before all is said and done, and with a long descent to follow, there won’t be all that much time to rejoin the main group.

A breakaway will likely get clear early and hold out an advantage over the bumpier parts of the stage, but with a flat run-in to the line and a likelihood of a few fast finishers still hanging around, it’s hard to see a breakaway surviving. The most probable scenario on Stage 3 would seem to be a reduced sprint.

Pink jersey wearer Michael Matthews is one of cycling’s best in the aforementioned scenario. He’s fast enough to beat the pure sprinters when he’s on a very good day; against a tired out pack, likely whittled down by the day’s climbing, he’ll be tough to beat, especially with the strong Orica-GreenEdge team helping him out. Simon Gerrans could be a deadly alternative.

JJ Lobato is one of the few riders who deserves to be considered as strong a favorite as Matthews, because he, too, can handle some climbing, and he’s already beaten Matthews in a sprint this year more than once. Movistar is mostly in this Giro for stage wins, and this is a great opportunity for Lobato. He has cooled off a bit after a very hot start to the season but that’s no reason to overlook him here.

Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo will try to hold on and will obviously be among the favorites if he can, but Fabio Felline, who won a stage in País Vasco last month, could be the better bet for Trek. He’s a terrific climber who placed in the Top 10 on GC at the Criterium International. Etixx-QuickStep’s Gianni Meersman is another very versatile fast finisher who will probably appreciate the profile.

The obvious sprinter candidates, including Elia Viviani, André Greipel, Sacha Modolo, and Luka Mezgec, will all do their best here too, but the gradients will be a real challenge.

BMC’s Philippe Gilbert can be speedy in a reduced sprint, and could look to get involved, with Tom-Jelte Slagter, Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli, Francesco Gavazzi, Heinrich Haussler, and Grega Bole potentially in the mix as well if some of the purer speed guys are missing. If the pack is seriously whittled in the mountains, the likes of Diego Ulissi and even Rigoberto Urán could thrive here.

VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. JJ Lobato | 3. Fabio Felline

Don’t forget to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro d’Italia. Be sure to check back after the conclusion of Stage 3 for the preview of the next stage. And, of course, there is still plenty of insight to be gleaned from the Recon Ride pre-race podcast, which you should definitely give a listen if you have already…

-Dane Cash

May 11, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Girona › Girona – 156.6 km

A breakaway surprised the peloton on the opening stage of the Volta and threw the General Classification battle into chaos, and the GC-related surprises continued on Stage 2 when Alejandro Valverde outclassed several sprinters to take a win and valuable bonus seconds. A GC battle on Stage 3 of the Volta a Catalunya, however, would not come as a big surprise: with two Cat. 1 ascents inside the final half of the day, out of five total categorized climbs, this will be a stage that the climbers have marked in the roadbook. The Alt dels Ángels (Category 1, 6 kilometers at a 5.5% average gradient) is the uphill challenge to know here. The riders will crest it for the first time about halfway through the stage, then they’ll hit a Cat. 2, and then they’ll return to the Alt del Ángels once more for a second helping. From the top of that ascent it’s 13 km to the finish, and it’s downhill until there are less than 3 kilometers to go. Attacks launched on the Alt del Ángels could stick. The day’s climbing is not steep enough to be particularly intimidating to the marquee overall contenders, but the race situation after two stages could see the uphill specialists trying to make things happen on the slopes regardless.

With five categorized climbs punctuating the stage, a breakaway is possible here, though the GC teams are extra wary of ignoring the breakers after Stage 1. What’s more, bonus seconds are on the line in this Volta. With several of the top GC contenders sporting fast finishing kicks, the motivation in the peloton to reel in anyone off the front will be high.

One GC contender boasting a particularly speedy finishing kick is the rider who took stage 2. Alejandro Valverde is perfectly suited for this stage. He’s explosive enough on the climbs to try to break free, but a flat finish will make it likely that a small group of aggressors will cross the line here together, and Valverde is deadly sprinting out of a small group. As much of an advantage as the breakaway riders from Stage 1 have here in Catalunya, Vavlerde won’t go down without a fight.

Rigoberto Urán, Giampaolo Caruso, and Wilco Kelderman, all of them also sporting strong sprinting abilities to go with their climbing legs, will all be riders to watch in this scenario as well.

For many of the Cannondale-Garmin riders, these are home roads. This is an excellent profile for Dan Martin, who could be looking to launch an attack on the final ascent. His team knows how to make things interesting on days packed with climbs, and they have the firepower to do so—they might look to put on a show here similar to the one they put on in the 2013 Tour de France when Dan Martin won a mountainous Stage 9 after his team had been on the attack all day.

It’s not out of the question that Alberto Contador or Chris Froome try to make something happen on these climbs, but they aren’t quite steep enough or long enough to favor either of the former Tour de France winners. It won’t be easy for them to get clear here. In Froome’s case, a teammate may be better suited for this stage: Wout Poels tends to thrive on days with repeated not-inhumane climbs.

JJ Rojas, Enrico Gasparotto, and Julian Alaphilippe are among the sprintier types who at least have a shot of surviving. Meanwhile, breakaway-loving Thomas De Gendt probably has this parcours in mind as a perfect opportunity to try to take a long-range victory. He’s way down on GC and not a threat to the overall. Allowing him to make it to the line would not have the same implications for the peloton that their mistake on Stage 1 had. Amets Txurruka and the already-out-of-GC-contention Carlos Betancur are others to watch in a breakaway scenario.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Rigoberto Urán | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race!

-Dane Cash

March 24, 2015