Tag: Stage 3

Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Cádiz › Arcos de la Frontera – 197.8 km

After a very flat second stage won, somewhat predictably, by Nacer Bouhanni, the peloton will take on a moderately bumpy Stage 3. The riders will enjoy approximately 80 kilometers of flat roads after they set out from the start (on an aircraft carrier, no less) in Cádiz before taking on a few hills in the middle of the stage. Following the journey up and over a series of Cat. 3 climbs, the riders will begin a long descent. After things flatten out, a short, uncategorized bump must be overcome with roughly 10 km to go, followed by a flat stretch that will last until a little bit after the peloton reaches the 2-km-to-go mark. Then things get interesting. The road kicks upward for most of the remainder of the journey to the line, only flattening out in the last few hundred meters. It’s not a categorized climb, but it’s enough of an incline to give the lighter riders a significant advantage. When the pack hits the slope, those who specialize in these sorts of ascents will drive a furious pace to put pressure on their heavier rivals. Some riders could try to launch their bid for glory early while the gradient is high, while the less able climbers will hope to hold on until things flatten out.

The parcours of Stage 3 should favor the more versatile fast finishers, the riders who are at their best sprinting for victory up a bit of an incline and at the end of a harder day in the saddle. An intermediate profile like this might look breakaway-friendly, but there are plenty of well-rounded quick men on this startlist who will find this stage well-suited to their talents, and their motivation to keep this together for a group finish will be high. A long, late flat section will help with a chase. The first uncategorized bump in the final 20 km might see a few attacks, but it’s not a difficult enough challenge to be a great launchpad, and it will be hard to stay away with another flat stretch to follow. The likeliest outcome here seems to be a group reaching the last uphill drag mostly intact to fight it out over the final two kilometers.

It’s hard to draw up a better profile for Peter Sagan than this. The climbs in the middle of Stage 3 will not be a problem for him, but some of his rivals for a sprint could suffer. Likely arriving relatively fresh at the finish line, he’ll appreciate the last uphill kick at the end of the day; he’s always fast, but his talents should be especially apparent in the fight for position that will occur in the last kilometer when the road is at a bit of a gradient. The Slovakian star doesn’t come without question marks though. He has said that he’s in this Vuelta a España to prepare for the World Championships, and he did a rare turn as a leadout man in Stage 2 rather than chasing victory himself. Stage 3 looks like a golden opportunity but his motivation is uncertain. Oscar Gatto is a decent alternative in place of Sagan should Cannondale decide to go in that direction.

John Degenkolb is another rider with a particular knack for this sort of profile. His top speed rivals Sagan’s, and unlike many other big-name sprinters of that caliber, he doesn’t lose his edge when the road tilts upward. If things hold together for a sprint at the end of Stage 3, Degenkolb will have a great chance at victory, and even if some of the punchier types try to create separation on the late incline, he’s shown before that he is strong enough to latch onto the right wheel to avoid being left behind when the road tilts upward.

Michael Matthews will love this parcours. His only complaint might be that Stage 3 isn’t bumpy enough in the middle of the day to cause more problems for other fast finishers, but either way, he’ll be a top favorite with an uphill stretch just before the line. His climbing legs have been amazing this year.

The final hundred meters may be flat, but the battle to be in front on the last uphill section will be critical for anyone hoping to take this stage, and nobody can charge uphill quite like BMC’s Philippe Gilbert. He will go full gas on the incline section and hope to get enough of an advantage to hold on for the win when things flatten out.

Alejandro Valverde of Movistar is another rider who can rely on his explosiveness to put space between himself and some of the heavier sprinters on the late climb. Katusha’s Daniel Moreno is on strong form for this Vuelta and could try the same, as might his teammates Joaquim Rodriguez and Alexandr Kolobnev.

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara is typically strong in a finish like this, but don’t count out his very impressive 22-year-old teammate Jasper Stuyven, 4th on Stage 2 and capable of handling a few hills. Fabio Felline crashed in the second stage, but normally this finish would suit him too. Filippo Pozzato, Daniel Martin, Moreno Hofland, Anthony Roux, Nathan Haas, Gerald Ciolek, Luis Leon Sanchez, Tom Boonen, and even Cadel Evans are others who could find Stage 3 to their liking. The profile may be a bit bumpy for Nacer Bouhanni, but his team did a great job taking care of him in the finale of the second stage and it’s not out of the question that he makes it to this finish in a good place.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 3, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

August 24, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Cambridge › London – 155 km

A pancake-flat Stage 3 will be a welcome change for the peloton after a day of challenging climbs that dropped the big name sprinters early and allowed Vincenzo Nibali to attack a tired lead group in the final kilometer for the stage win. On the third day of the Tour de France, the peloton travels from Cambridge to London without a single categorized climb on the menu, and at 155 kilometers, it’s won’t be a particularly long ride either. While the motivation to get out in front of the pack for some TV time will be very high on the Tour’s final day in England, anything but a sprint finish on this profile would be a big surprise. Still, after the race enters London, things get a bit technical on the way to the finishing straight on The Mall; there is a pair of right-hand turns within the final kilometer where things could get hectic. The fight to get positioned for the closing moments of Stage 3 will be fierce, and anyone with hopes of winning this stage will have to brave a dangerous stretch at the head of the pack at the end of the day.

With Mark Cavendish out of the race following his opening stage crash, Marcel Kittel‘s hold on the title of sprinter favorite becomes that much stronger. His leadout train took their time to get set up on Stage 1, but when it mattered they put Kittel at the front and in position win the day. With that leadout, and his elite ability and form, he is the man to beat on Stage 3. Unfortunately, the carnage on Day 1 robbed us of the opportunity to see Kittel matched up at full speed against the rider who is his only likely rival in this type of stage, Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel. Though the aforementioned crash in Harrogate did not bring Greipel down, it did slow him enough to take him out of contention. He has another chance here. He has certainly looked strong in the past few weeks, taking the German National Championship against Kittel’s teammate Degenkolb, but beating Kittel himself will be a tall order. If anyone can do it, however, it’s Andre Greipel; behind the two German stars there is a clear dropoff in sprinting ability to the next few contenders.

Nevertheless, anything can happen with this technical finish, and there are several other fast men who will be gunning for this one just as hard as the two favorites. Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is obviously one of those contenders. He was a strong 2nd to Kittel on the opening stage, and after allowing a great opportunity for a victory to get away from him in the final moments of Stage 2, he will be hungry for another shot at a win, and certainly for more Green Jersey points, here on Stage 3. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has looked impressive at both the finish line and in the intermediate sprints so far, and he will look for more success here. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare and Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff should place highly. Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, Lampre’s Maximiliano Richeze (Sacha Modolo has unfortunately abandoned the race with a fever), and AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin will hope to get into the mix. As usual, Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb will become a strong contender if anything should happen to team leader Marcel Kittel. Omega Pharma-Quick Step is in an interesting situation: they still have an excellent leadout even though they are missing their top sprinter. Whomever they decide to put forward for the sprint, Alessandro Petacchi or Mark Renshaw, or even Matteo Trentin or Michal Kwiatkowski, he will have a strong support squad in the Stage 3 finale.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 3, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 6, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Armagh > Dublin – 187 km

The rain continued on Stage 2 but the sprinters were not deterred. A small cast of breakers including Maarten Tjallingii did a great job to stay out front till the very end, but the peloton reeled them in in the last few minutes. Cannondale and Trek took the front, and then Giant-Shimano took over, looking perfectly positioned for a Kittel leadout in the last kilometer. Orica-GreenEdge came around them late, but Marcel Kittel was unfazed. After the final turn, he sprinted up the left side of the road and no one could match his engine. He nabbed his first Giro stage win rather handily, with Bouhanni, Nizzolo, and Viviani behind. In 8th place on the day, Michael Matthews moved ahead of teammate Svein Tuft just slightly in the GC and will wear the pink jersey tomorrow. Ultimately, Stage 2 was a wet, nervous day, but the final results were unsurprising, with most of the expected names featuring in the sprint.

Stage 3 takes the Giro d’Italia into the Republic of Ireland, kicking off in Armagh but finishing in Dublin. It’s got a few early bumps (two Cat. 4 climbs) but once the race leaves Northern Ireland the road flattens out a fair bit. Without any major tests on the profile, the weather, potentially very windy and rainy, will offer the biggest challenge to the riders.

Conditions could make things unpredictable, but the bunch was generally able to avoid trouble on Stage 2 and will hopefully manage to stay clear of danger on the final day of racing outside of Italy. A bunch sprint is again likely, and with even fewer lumps and fewer overall kilometers, Marcel Kittel may be an even bigger favorite. The way he was able to dominate today’s finish inspires confidence in his chances of repeating. There is a sharp bend at about the kilometer-to-go point, but after that it’s a pretty clear run to the finish line, and it’s hard to see many challengers taking on the big German in the final drag. As usual, should he falter early in the day, Luka Mezgec becomes Giant’s go-to guy.

Unsurprisingly, and probably unexcitingly, the riders placing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on the first sprint stage will be my 2nd, 3rd, and 4th favorites for Stage 3. Nacer Bouhanni showed that he’s in great shape on his way to runner-up honors. He’s a powerful sprinter who will like the look of Stage 3. Giacomo Nizzolo appears strong and fully recovered from his early season injury, and his leadout is also very quick. As a note, his Stage 2 result bodes well for later in the Giro: I think he and Viviani are more likely to hang on through tough mountain stages than Kittel and Bouhanni, which could set up a few showdowns between the Italian fast men if/when their rivals abandon the race. Speaking of Elia Viviani, his Cannondale squad probably did a little too much work a little too early for today’s finish, and he still managed to come through for 4th, so look for him again tomorrow.

Michael Matthews will wear pink on the road to Dublin but I found his 8th place a bit underwhelming given his ability and his leadout’s excellent position. I don’t think he loves racing in the rain. We’ll see if he can improve his position tomorrow. Roberto Ferrari‘s performance was the opposite—impressive given recent results (or lack thereof) and Lampre’s unimpressive leadout. Another flat day of sprinting, shorter than today’s, will be appetizing for the 31-year-old. Sky’s Ben Swift continues to show just how strong he is right now, mixing it up with the very best in the race. Like Matthews, he’ll look to place as highly as possible on these days to prepare for later stages in which the small number of faster riders might be out of contention. He seems to be Sky’s go-to guy for the sprints ahead of the also fast Edvald Boasson Hagen. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar is another rider who will be in the mix tomorrow. Alessandro Petacchi, meanwhile, seemed content riding purely in a support role for Stage 2. With another windy day on tap, the OPQS rider might make a nice outside challenger, but he didn’t even contend today and might not for Stage 3 either.

Two of the three real outsiders I named in the Stage 2 preview finished in the top 10 (Manuel Belletti, 6th, and Davide Appollonio 9th). The third, Francesco Chicchi, came back from a very late mechanical to finish 12th, which is pretty impressive, though he did have a bit of team car assistance. They’ll be outsiders again for Stage 3, along with the likes of Bardiani’s Nicola Ruffoni, Belkin’s Jetse Bol and Movistar’s Fran Ventoso.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! The peloton gets a rest day after the Dublin finish. Keep an eye out for the preview of Stage 4, which kicks off in Giovinazzo on Tuesday. If you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

May 10, 2014