Tag: Stage 4

Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Betanzos › San Andrés de Teixido – 163.5km

On the heels of Stage 3’s explosive finish comes another day with a punchy finale. The first 150km will be relatively calm, but the day ends with an intriguing Cat. 2 climb that will likely bring the GC men to the fore again.

It’s a three-part ascent to the line. Technically, the “climb” is 11.2km at 4.8%, but in reality there’s a steep stretch to start, leading to a quick descent, and then about 4km at around 7%.

Given the parcours, I see many of the same favorites from Monday as favorites again Tuesday.

Alejandro Valverde has the perfect skillset for Stage 4, and he proved in Stage 3 that he’s got the form. This is another great opportunity for him to take a victory. Nairo Quintana and Rubén Fernandez could be in the mix too, of course, but I’d imagine Movistar will ride for Valverde.

Chris Froome was right alongside Valverde Monday and he should be there again here—however the finish isn’t as steep, so it may come down to a reduced sprint, which doesn’t favor Froome as much.

Gianluca Brambilla probably wouldn’t mind a reduced sprint. He’s got a nice kick, and has shown form. This is a great chance for him to nab a second Grand Tour stage win this year.

Esteban Chaves has the right combination of explosiveness and climbing legs to get involved. So too do Luis León Sánchez, Fabio Felline, Philippe Gilbert, and José Goncalvez.

Alberto Contador deserves a mention too. He’d need to attack to win the stage, but he could be motivated to get aggressive after a lackluster showing in Stage 3.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Gianluca Brambilla | 3. Esteban Chaves

August 23, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Saumur › Limoges – 237.5km

Tuesday’s stage is rather similar to Monday’s: long and mostly flat. It’s actually the longest stage of this year’s Tour, and yet the profile contains just one forgettable Cat. 4 climb. The most important topographical feature comes at the finish, where the road angles upward slightly for the final 500 meters.

The profile is pretty sprinter-friendly so it’s hard to see anyone other than the speedsters as top favorites, though the length could shake things up a bit. 237.5km puts this into the realm of a one-day classic, and that could leave some of the less versatile sprinters a bit worn out by the end of the day.

As such, I like André Greipel to win the stage. He came so close to the win in Stage 3, proving his strong form, and I think Stage 4 suits him a bit bitter, now that he’s shown some ability in the classics.

That said, Mark Cavendish has to be considered a strong contender to take his third win of the Tour. He’s obviously in top shape, and his teammates have proven themselves worthy supporters in the bunch kicks.

The third member of the top sprinting trio in this Tour, Marcel Kittel, found himself out of position in Stage 3 but that doesn’t mean he’s not in-form. Tuesday’s route might be a bit long for the German but not so long that I’m counting him out.

On the other hand, Peter Sagan‘s chances look great on this parcours. The slight uphill drag in the finale suits him quite well, as does the distance. I think he’s probably got a better shot than Kittel with all those factors in mind.

Alexander Kristoff, Bryan Coquard, Michael Matthews, Greg Van Avermaet, and Edward Theuns are other speedy options who should really like the look of the profile—this is just the sort of route that gives them a chance to steal a sprint win from the Cavs and the Kittels.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. André Greipel | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Mark Cavendish

July 5, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Catanzaro › Praia a Mare – 200km

The first Italian stage of the Giro d’Italia gets underway Tuesday. It’s a lumpy affair of around 200 kilometers, with a pair of Cat. 3 climbs and an up-and-down (though uncategorized) finale. The parcours makes this stage a tough one to predict—it might be too difficult for the pure sprinters, but it’s not so challenging as to completely rule them out. The early breakaway will have a shot at staying clear here as well.

I see a reduced sprint as the most probable outcome, making the punchy types prime candidates for success. Diego Ulissi looked strong in the Ardennes this year and almost always performs well in his home Grand Tour. He has a very fast finish and won’t be troubled by the climbs.

Alejandro Valverde may find this stage to his liking as well, for the same reasons.

Sonny Colbrelli, a surprise 3rd in the Amstel Gold Race, should be in top shape for the Giro and is well-suited to the finale. The same could be said for Matteo Trentin, who doesn’t have that many opportunities to ride for his own results, but very often delivers when he does get the chance.

Of course, Trentin’s teammate Marcel Kittel might make it to the finish, in which case he’d be a heavy favorite for the sprint. The slightly more versatile Arnaud Démare might be a better bet. He can handle a few climbs. So can Giacomo Nizzolo—this could be his big chance to finale nab a Giro stage win.

Tim Wellens is another name to keep an eye on here. He could find the profile perfect for one of his characteristic long-range attacks.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Marcel Kittel | 3. Sonny Colbrelli

May 9, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Estepona › Vejer de la Frontera – 209.6km

A cursory glance at the Stage 4 profile might lead you to expect a big bunch sprint at the end of the day. But take a closer look at the last 5km and it should be clear that the heavyweight sprinters won’t be in a happy place in this finale.

There isn’t a single categorized climb on the road from Estepona to Vejer de la Frontera, but things get very difficult just before the line after 200 mostly flat kilometers. With just over 4km to go, the road kicks up at a gradient of just over 10% for a little over a kilometer. After that initially vicious uphill stretch the grade eases a bit, but the climbing continues until there are about 2km to go, when the road flattens out, before angling downhill until there are just 500 meters left. Then the road kicks sharply upward again, getting into the double digits before easing to a gradient of a little over 4% at the finish.

A straightforward sprint with all the traditional speedsters in contention seems unlikely. First, the initial steep section could provide a launching pad for an aggressive puncheur to make an attack in the closing kilometers of the race. And if things are all together coming under the flamme rouge, the uphill drag to the line will favor a different sort of rider. Strong climbing legs will be as critical as explosiveness on Stage 4.

Peter Sagan has both in spades. He showed on Stage 3 that he’s not just taking the Vuelta a España as a long training ride, and having proven that he’s not afraid to go after the stages that suit him, he’s suddenly a dangerous contender in the stagehunting game. All that said, it’s still going to be hard to predict just when he’s going to put it all on the line to hunt down results in this race. The tough Stage 4 finish suits him very well, as it is likely to prove too difficult for anyone else with the same sort of speed, but there is always the possibility that Sagan just isn’t interested in expending the necessary effort to go for the win. If he does, he’ll be hard to beat. If he doesn’t, this is a wide open stage.

The finish looks great for Dan Martin, who showed strength on Stage 2 despite missing the day’s winning move. Martin has a Monument-winning ability to launch a late attack, but he’s also handier in a fast finish than most riders with his ability to climb should things stay together for a reduced sprint in the final few hundred meters. Martin is fresher than many of the star climbers in this race, and motivated to pick up a big result after a slow season.

Alejandro Valverde has the skillset to thrive at this finish and should be among the favorites, but form is a bit of a question mark. He was somewhat disappointing on a Stage 2 that seemed to suit him perfectly, just as he was a disappointment on the Mur de Huy and Mur de Bretagne in the Tour de France. If he’s worked through a bit of early-race sluggishness though, he’ll be up there fighting for the win.

The Katusha duo of Joaquim Rodríguez and Daniel Moreno should be anxious for a second chance after a missed opportunity on Stage 2. Rodríguez in particular looks strong and up for a challenge just like this where he can try a late attack, or rely on his decent uphill sprint.

John Degenkolb has shown flashes of the ability to take on something this steep, but he’s much better served when the tough climbs come earlier on in a stage—he’s capable of grinding it out over a long day of up and down and sticking it out for a flat sprint, but when the finish itself is this challenging, Degenkolb might struggle. Teammate Tom Dumoulin should be the best option for Giant-Alpecin. The double digits aren’t his forte but he’s got a nice turn of speed and a terrific ability to go solo when the opportunity presents itself.

Esteban Chaves took the peloton by surprise to take the Stage 2 win and the red jersey after a somewhat quiet season, but he won’t be able to stay out of the spotlight on Stage 4. All eyes will be on the race leader on the final climb. He’s still a threat but this isn’t a perfect finish for him compared to some of the other favorites, and he doesn’t have the element of surprise. Simon Gerrans would probably be OGE’s best option here, though his form is an unknown, as he’s coming back from an injury. If he’s healthy, he could contend for the win.

Carlos Barbero has had a lot of success this season on this sort of profile, though generally his results have come against far less imposing rivals. Still, don’t count him out against the Vuelta field—Caja Rural is on home turf and highly motivated to come away with a stage win in Spain’s biggest race.

Jelle Vanendert, Bart De Clercq, JJ Rojas, Nicolas Roche, Sergio Henao, Jasper Stuyven, Fabio Aru, and Domenico Pozzovivo are others to watch for Stage 4. Lastly, don’t completely count out Nacer Bouhanni. It will be a very tall order for the Frenchman to survive the steep stuff, but he looked mostly recovered from his Stage 2 crash in the sprint finish to Stage 3, and he has at times shown an ability to handle tough finales like this one.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Dan Martin | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 4. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 24, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Chiavari › La Spezia – 150km

Michael Matthews took Stage 3 of the Giro d’Italia, and he should like the looks of Stage 4 as well. The route contains only three officially categorized climbs, but a fair bit of up and down, and the final climb is crested 10 kilometers from the finish, with steep sections of over 10% near the top and with 7km of descent to follow before a flat run-in to the line.

It’s another day that will likely have the breakaway specialists hoping to make something happen, but this early in the race, and with so many versatile fast finishers on the startlist, the peloton should keep them within striking distance. A reduced sprint between the survivors of the sting in the tail of this route, the Biassa climb, seems the most likely outcome (and even if a break does make it, expect to see at least a few of the upcoming names trying their luck from afar too).

Orica-GreenEdge has more than option on this sort of parcours, with two of the best riders for a reduced sprint on the roster. Michael Matthews, wearing the pink jersey, is an obvious candidate after his victory on Stage 3. He shines in selective sprints. If some of the purer climbers inject the pace on the final ascent, he may have trouble maintaining his position, but the way he’s been riding this year, especially the way he was glued onto Philippe Gilbert’s wheel on the Cauberg in the Amstel Gold Race, would suggest that he’s capable of a challenge like this. If he can’t, Simon Gerrans might be able to take up the slack. This is a perfect parcours for Gerrans and on any other day he might be the very top favorite, but having the pink jersey wearer on his own team means he might defer to his compatriot here. Either way, both are dangerous, as is Simon Clarke.

Philippe Gilbert came close to the win in Stage 3, and this is another great profile for him, perhaps even better, with a late climb that could see him putting pressure onto his rivals. It’s a flat finish but he’s a strong sprinter who can outmatch most climbers.

Fabio Felline is also a great candidate, one who defeated Matthews and Gilbert both at a similar finish in País Vasco. He’s in great shape right now, and an excellent climber who should have no problem with the parcours. If this comes down to a reduced sprint, expect to see him up there again, probably fighting it out with the same names that battled for the win in Sestri Levante.

Diego Ulissi spent a lot of time in the breakaway on Stage 3, and in the end, did not contend for a finish that suited him quite well. He’s got a great sprint and he’s a terrific climber; for Ulissi, this stage will be all about whittling down the pack to the right combination of opponents that he can outlast in a bunch kick.

Juan José Lobato lost contact on the difficult profile of Stage 3 but he’ll have another chance here. Southeast’s Francesco Gavazzi, Bardiani-CSF’s Enrico Battaglin, EQS’s Gianni Meersman, and CCC’s Greg Bole are others on the list of in-between types with the versatility to handle some climbing and the finishing kicks to win a reduced sprint. A more selective day could see the likes of Tom-Jelte Slagter, Sergey Lagutin, Damiano Caruso, Paolo Tiralongo, Damiano Cunego, and speedy GC contender Rigoberto Urán in the mix. Of course, there’s always the possibility that the day isn’t so hard as to drop all of the purer sprinters, leaving a small window open for riders like André Greipel, Giacomo Nizzolo, Moreno Hofland, and Elia Viviani.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Fabio Felline | 3. Philippe Gilbert

Don’t forget to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race, and be sure to check back after the conclusion of Stage 4 for the preview of the next stage.

-Dane Cash

May 12, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Tona › La Molina – 188.4 km

The Volta saw it’s first serious climbing battle on Stage 3, with Domenico Pozzovivo taking the day after jumping from a small lead group that included Richie Porte and Alberto Contador, among others, with Alejandro Valverde (who had taken a small spill along the technical route) and Chris Froome a bit behind. Stage 4 will likely be even more decisive, opening with a pair of Cat. 1s and then finishing with the one-two punch of an extra-long Special-Category Alt de la Crueta (21 kilometers at a 4.5% average gradient) and then the Cat. 1 La Molina summit finish (5.6 kilometers with a 5.8% average gradient).

Such an up-and-down day is likely to see consistent attacks. It won’t be easy to control this stage, making a breakaway stage victor possible; at the same time, there are all-important bonus seconds at the line, and several powerful teams hoping to take the top step of the Volta a Catalunya podium, meaning that the peloton will likely work hard to reel in anyone up the road.

As tough as this day will be, the final few kilometers are not terribly steep. It’s feasible that a small group reaches the top of La Molina together, which would give the advantage to the climbers with strong finishing kicks. Alejandro Valverde again comes to mind, though after racing Milano-Sanremo and heading straight to Spain to start in this race, it seems likely that at some point, Valverde might start to feel a bit of fatigue. He’s still a top favorite, but there is that question of whether or not he can keep chugging along at such a high level.

The Chris Froome vs. Alberto Contador battle may have given way to a Richie Porte vs. Alberto Contador battle, and Stage 4 will certain offer another battleground for the confrtontation. Porte has the stronger team, with almost all of Sky’s top climbers. With the number of options Sky has brought to this race, their odds of coming away with a result are pretty good. Then again, Alberto Contador at his best would be the best climber here (with the only rider who might rival him, Froome, still lacking just a bit of form after his illness at the beginning of the month). Contador is a shrewd tactician. The question is whether he can come up with the right strategy to beat this juggernaut Sky team.

Rigoberto Urán and Dan Martin may get another opportunity after they lost out to Domenico Pozzovivo on Stage 3. If they can stick with the lead group at the end of the day, they both have great finishing kicks to go for the victory at the line. The same is true for Wilco Kelderman, though it seems a bit less likely that Kelderman will survive this tough stage with the top favorites.

Pozzovivo will be another contender here, given the form he showed on Stage 3. He lacks the top speed to win a potential reduced sprint, meaning that he’ll need to jump from whatever group he is in to do win this stage, but he’s had a lot of success in doing just that. Fabio Aru, Andrew Talansky, and Esteban Chaves are other strong climbers who could be looking to go on the offensive.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Riche Porte | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Volta a Catalunya analysis!

March 25, 2015