Tag: Stage 5

Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Viveiro › Lugo – 171.3km

The Vuelta’s fifth stage should be one for the sprinters. The only official climb of the day is a Cat. 3 over 50km from the finish, and then it’s mostly flat the rest of the way home. There is an uphill drag of a few kilometers running up to the 2km-to-go mark, which could conceivably makes things a bit interesting—but a big sprint seems to be the most likely outcome.

Gianni Meersman nabbed the first sprint win of the race, and he’s definitely a candidate for success again in Stage 5 having proven he’s in good shape (with a great leadout). He’ll be hoping for a high pace on the late uncategorized bump—anything to wear out the purer speedsters on the startlist, even if there’s no top-shelf names here.

Nikias Arndt looks like a strong candidate for Stage 5 too. Among the few sprinters at the Vuelta, he’s one of the most accomplished. Form is a bit of a question mark, but on ability, he deserves to be up there as a potential stage favorite.

Kristian Sbaragli is another of the rare quick men on the startlist with an actual Grand Tour win under his belt. He’s been quieter this year than expected and didn’t factor much in Stage 2 but with a decent leadout he’s got a chance.

Niccolo Bonifazio will likely be in the mix as well. He’s still got a ways to go in the consistency department but he’s flashed some serious talent in his young career.

Michael Schwarzmann has a chance to show that Stage 2 wasn’t a fluke. I’m not sure I expect another top 2 performance from him, but anything is possible in this field. The same is true for Magnus Cort Nielsen, Jean Pierre Drucker, Fabio Felline, and Jonas van Genecthen are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Nikias Arndt | 3. Kristian Sbaragli

August 24, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Limoges › Le Lioran – 216km

Wednesday’s stage is one of the more unpredictable days in this Tour. The profile is hilly enough to put the sprinters out of contention, and it could spring an early breakaway or a late attack to success. The final 40km involve four categorized climbs and a uncategorized uphill finish that favors the puncheurs.

At first glance, a few days ago, I thought this would be breakaway day for sure, but the race situation may dictate otherwise. With Peter Sagan in the yellow jersey and GC teams that have looked interested in battling for every inch at the front of the bunch so far, I see it more as a 50/50 proposition.

Should the pack contest the finish, there are a few clear favorites. Sagan is one of them. The finish might actually favor punchier types better but Sagan has looked very impressive all season and it’s hard to put anything past him.

Julian Alaphilippe should like the look of the stage. The late climbs will thin out most of the faster finishers and the uphill finale will suit him very well. Etixx teammate Dan Martin has a shot too.

Alejandro Valverde is of course a potential stage winner with this finish, though it’s hard to say whether Movistar will want him pushing too hard to achieve his own goals.

The profile might be a tad too challenging for Michael Matthews, on the other hand, but he’s worth keeping an eye on. His teammate Simon Gerrans may like the parcours more.

Tony Gallopin is typically very strong on this sort of finish, especially with the succession of climbs at the end of the day. The same could be said for Greg Van Avermaet. Joaquím Rodríguez, Rui Costa, and Bauke Mollema are others with a decent shot in a reduced sprint.

Stephen Cummings and Thomas De Gendt stand out as strong breakaway candidates for Stage 5. This early in the race, it’s hard to say who is gunning for the long-range moves, but those two are among the clear possible breakers on just about any stage. Simon Geschke and Sylvain Chavanel are also options.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Julian Alaphilippe | 3. Alejandro Valverde

July 6, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Praia a Mare › Benevento – 233km

The Giro’s fifth stage, much like Stage 4, won’t be easy to predict. There is only one small categorized climb on the day and it comes very early in the stage, but the road to Benevento does have some hills along the way, and this is a very long stage at 233 kilometers. More importantly, the finish is tricky: the final kilometer is a cobbled ascent at around 3.4%.

All those features will make Stage 5 a tough one to control, and even if things come down to a bunch gallop in the peloton, it’s no guarantee that the marquee sprinters will be at their best on a finishing climb like this.

Should the peloton reel in any long-range attackers before the line, Marcel Kittel would probably be the obvious pick for a sprint, but he might not be my first choice. He is looking more versatile these days than he used to, but I still think this finish might be a bit tough for the Etixx rider.

Arnaud Démare, on the other hand, should like his chances. He’s done well on slightly uphill finishes in the past, he can handle cobblestones, and he doesn’t mind a long day in the saddle (as evidenced by his Milano-Sanremo victory). He also looks very good right now.

André Greipel, who has recently shown some ability in the Spring Classics, is another rider who might be able to use the tricky finish to his advantage. The same could be said for Giacomo Nizzolo, who loves the longer days.

Sacha Modolo is another sprinter who may fare well at the finish, while Caleb Ewan and Elia Viviani are both quick enough that maybe the small cobbled climb won’t matter.

Diego Ulissi, Matteo Trentin, and Sonny Colbrelli could be in the mix if the purer sprinters are dropped from bunch. So could Ramunas Navardauskas.

And if the stage goes to a breakaway, don’t be surprised if Lotto-Soudal takes the victory: Tim Wellens and Adam Hansen should both like the look of Stage 5.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Arnaud Démare | 2. André Greipel | 3. Marcel Kittel

May 11, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Rota › Alcalá de Guadaíra – 167.3km

The Vuelta’s fifth stage is another day of mostly flat roads leading to an uphill finish. There is not a single categorized climb on the menu. This one should come down to the very end of the stage, where the only really challenges of the day await—after 166 straightforward kilometers with very little in the way of climbing, the peloton will snake through a few corners and roundabouts before hitting an uphill drag of over 5% for the last 500 meters of the day.

The finishing climb is not categorized and it’s not difficult enough to favor an attacker or cause much separation. It will, however, give a slight advantage to the more well-rounded of the fast finishers in the Vuelta peloton.

Peter Sagan will be a favored contender for a third straight day. This finish suits him better than any yet in the Vuelta. It’s not so steep as to give the climbing specialists an edge, but it will definitely put the heavier pure sprinters at a disadvantage. Stage 5 is tailormade for Sagan, and what’s more, he has shown that he’s in sharp form and very interested in getting as much as he can out of this Vuelta. He nearly took a second stage win in as many days on a Stage 4 that finished on a climb that was probably just a hair harder than he would have preferred. Stage 5, with its technical final kilometer, gives him a chance to use all of his manifold skills on the bike to his advantage.

John Degenkolb should be best placed to challenge Sagan at this finish. Sagan has the edge on the steeper gradients but Degenkolb is very handy in a finish like this. Still, he has his work cut out for him. Degenkolb couldn’t keep Sagan from coming around him on a Stage 3 that suited him better. It will be a challenge outgunning Sagan here.

Nacer Bouhanni will have a chance at this stage as well—although he’d prefer a flatter finish, he’s shown an ability to handle more challenging gradients near the line in the past. The question mark for Bouhanni is whether he’s at 100% after multiple crashes.

Jean-Pierre Drucker has a knack for success in messier finishes and this is likely to be a hectic finale. He can’t be ignored as a contender for Stage 5 even against the likes of favorites Sagan and Degenkolb.

Carlos Barbero was not as much of a factor on Stages 3 or 4 as I’d expected, but this stage, with a finish that is tougher than the former but easier than the latter, should suit him best. He’s still a long shot against the big talents he’ll be up against, but this is a profile he’ll appreciate.

JJ Rojas, Alejandro Valverde, Caleb Ewan, Daniel Moreno, Jasper Stuyven, Danny Van Poppel, Vicente Reynes, Simon Gerrans, Tom Dumoulin, and Kristian Sbaragli are others to watch in the uphill sprint that is likely to decide Stage 5 of the Vuelta.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Nacer Bouhanni

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 5. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 25, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Arras › Amiens – 189.5km

With Tony Martin in the yellow jersey following a hard-fought Stage 4 win, the fifth stage of the Tour should finally give the GC riders a chance to take a breath after several days of very hectic action early on in the race. The 189.5km course has small rollers throughout, but there are no categorized climbs to speak of on the day. Without any great launching pads, and given the relatively light helping of sprinter-friendly stages in this year’s Tour de France, the quick men will be locked in for this chance at a bunch finish. The finale into Amiens includes a late right hook inside the final kilometer, but after that it’s straight out to the line for roughly the final 500 meters, meaning that if this does come down to a bunch kick, it’s likely to be a high-speed one.

Etixx-QuickStep’s attempt to set Mark Cavendish up for a Stage 2 win was one of the worst performances by the typically very strong leadout squad in recent memory, and the poor execution left Cav eating wind far too early in the finale. As such, he didn’t even finish among the Top 3 on the day. If Stage 5 does come down to a sprint and Cavendish is involved, I think things will likely go down just a bit differently. He should be the fastest rider in this race, and in a big bunch sprint he will be hard to beat, especially if his (usually) solid leadout train can get it together.

André Greipel is probably the most likely to challenge Cavendish in a sprint, but I’m not reading too much into the fact that Greipel won their first faceoff—the Etixx train was beat after a long day, and Greipel was able to rely on Cavendish himself for a great leadout. That seems unlikely to happen again. Greipel has terrific top speed regardless of the situation, but beating Cavendish a second time, not to mention all the other sprint favorites, will be a challenge.

Alexander Kristoff hasn’t made a big impact yet in this Tour de France but a bunch kick would be a great opportunity for him to change that. Kept out of contention on a Stage 4 that looked well-tailored to his skills by a mechanical, Kristoff will be determined to make something happen on Stage 5. Given how strong he’s been so far this year, I’m expecting him to contend for victory.

Giant-Alpecin gave away the win on Stage 4 by not chasing down a late attack by Tony Martin. They were probably afraid of leading out other riders to the stage win, but given the alternative of not having any chance at the win at all, it seems like a pretty foolish decision. In any case, the team will have another opportunity on Stage 5. I’ve always said that John Degenkolb’s pure speed is an underrated aspect of his very versatile game, and I do think he’s capable of winning even a big bunch kick against other favorites.

Peter Sagan has shown blazing form in this race, nearly beating the powerful André Greipel in a drag race on Stage 2. With another chance at a Tour stage win, something that’s eluded him for a long time now. Like Degenkolb, Sagan sometimes gets overlooked as a top sprinter because of his versatility, but don’t count him out even in a big bunch kick.

Nacer Bouhanni seems very likely to come out of that final turn in a good position given his ability to slot himself in perfectly for a sprint finish, and from there, he should be able to rely on his great burst of speed to fight for a result. That said, against this startlist, a win will be a challenge. He’s had plenty of success this year in lower-level races, and in a Dauphiné devoid of any other top-tier sprinting talent, but so far in 2015 he has yet to take a big victory over the caliber of riders in this race.

Arnaud Demaré, Bryan Coquard, Sam Bennett, Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews, and Davide Cimolai are other riders who will hope to be in the mix on Stage 5, one of the few great opportunities in this Tour de France for the fast finishers.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

What do you think? Let me know on Twitter @VeloHuman, and be sure to follow for more analysis and commentary during the race. Check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 5. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 7, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: La Spezia › Abetone – 152km

An unpredictable Stage 4 (won by Davide Formolo) shook up the fight for the pink jersey in the Giro d’Italia perhaps earlier than expected. The GC riders will have to be alert for the Giro’s fifth day as well, however, because it concludes with a very long climb to a summit finish.

The day opens with a long, low-gradient ascent into a Cat. 3 climb, followed by along descent, a short uncategorized climb, and then another long, low-gradient ascent into the finish climb to Abetone, 17.3 kilometers at a 5.4% average gradient.

As with any climber-friendly stage, this day could go to a breakaway. This is especially true in the aftermath of a Stage 4 that saw so many would-be GC riders lose a lot of time—there are now many strong climbers who will not pose much of a GC threat. On the other hand, there are bonus seconds on offer and an opportunity for the pink jersey favorites to test each other here, and if a chase is organized properly, it should be possible for the peloton to reel in riders up the road on this parcours. It’s hard to predict how things will play out, though whether the race is won from the pack or a break, the favorites will be those riders with strong climbing skills and the punchiness to win a finishing sprint or launch a late attack on the long but not terribly steep final ascent.

Fabio Aru is certainly a strong climber, and his Astana team proved to be in incredible shape on Stage 4, driving the pace in the peloton for the better part of the stage and closing down what had been a 10 minute gap to all of the breakaway riders up the road except for Formolo. That will be a big factor in Aru’s favor on this long slog of a climb, where Astana can put the pressure on Aru’s rivals, chase down other attacks, and prime the young Italian to launch an attack of his own at just the right moment. He’s quite adept at getting clear on a long climb like this one, as he showed in last year’s Giro and Vuelta alike, and he has to know that he’ll need every bit of time he can get before a long time trial that will suit his more time trial-oriented rivals.

Speaking of which, Alberto Contador and Richie Porte will both be obvious candidates for success on this stage, though the extent to which they’re planning on being active this early in the race is unclear. Neither sports a particularly deadly finishing kick, so to win they’d both have to be aggressive—the low gradients could see a group arrive at the finish unless someone can get clear with a powerful attack. Rigoberto Urán does have a strong finishing kick. Before stage 4, Urán was my favorite for this stage—but the Colombian GC rider lost ground to his top GC rivals on that day, and that leaves his condition a bit uncertain. He’s also down two teammates. I still think he’s got a great chance here, but he comes into the stage with a few question marks. Damiano Caruso is another rider within a minute and a half of the GC lead who can finish fast. Esteban Chaves, sitting 2nd overall, is riding well right now and could be a danger too, as could Alberto Contador’s teammate Roman Kreuziger.

Diego Ulissi is among the many punchy candidates for stage success who will have the luxury of being given a bit more room to get aggressive, given his non-threatening GC position. Even if he were a GC candidate, he’d be a terrific bet here, given his strong climbing legs and explosive power. From a long-range move or with the pack, he’s an excellent option on Stage 5. Carlos Betancur lost a lot of ground on Stage 4 but he doesn’t look totally out of shape either—at his best he’d be among the top favorites here, and perhaps with the freedom that will come with his nearly-14-minute GC deficit, he could challenge for the stage.

Mikel Landa, Beñat Intxausti, Dario Cataldo, Stefano Pirazzi, Damiano Cunego, Giovanni Visconti, Ilnur Zakarin, Philippe Gilbert, and Tom-Jelte Slagter are on the long list of strong climbers who could be allowed up the road to go for the stage victory here. And don’t completely count out Trek’s Fabio Felline, who has put in some very strong uphill performances in the past, despite being quickly dropped on a difficult Stage 4.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Fabio Aru | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Rigoberto Urán

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and remember to check back after the conclusion of Stage 5 for the preview of the next stage.

-Dane Cash

May 13, 2015