Tag: Stage 6

Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Monforte de Lemos › Luintra – 163.2km

Before the Vuelta began, I expected Stage 6 to be the first breakaway day in the race. Now it’s set to be the third.

The profile is perfectly suited for the long-range attackers, with no super-hard climbs but plenty of up and down. There’s only one categorized climb, a Cat. 2 that begins at kilometer 105, but it’s followed by two more uncategorized lumps likely to make it tough for the sprinters to stay involved. That, coupled with a finish that shouldn’t have much of a GC impact, should reduce the impetus of the peloton to chase.

The hardest thing about previewing this stage is trying to predict who will be in the break. Several names come to mind as likely long-range hopefuls, and a few others come to mind as strong contenders who at least have the potential of getting into the move.

Philippe Gilbert seems as good a place as any to start. He showed both form and motivation attacking the peloton at the end of Stage 5, and this stage profile suits him well. He can win a reduced sprint if he’s in the lead group at the right time.

So can Fabio Felline. This is a great profile for the Italian. It also suits his Trek teammate Kiel Reijnen.

I’m expecting Caja Rural to be very active in Stage 6. They have multiple options, with Jose Goncalves and Pello Bilbao standing out the most to me. It’s never easy to predict which Caja Rural rider will be in a break, but you can be assured they’ll try to get someone up the road.

The long list of possible candidates who might win this stage from afar (or from the peloton, for that matter) also includes: Zdenek Stybar, Luis León Sánchez, Thomas De Gendt, Simon Gerrans, Simon Clarke, Jan Bakelants, and Enrico Battaglin.

Should this come down to the bunch after all, beware the versatile Gianni Meersman, who is on fire in this race. If he’s not there at the finish though, Alejandro Valverde and Michal Kwiatkowski are riders who might be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Philippe Gilbert | 2. Fabio Felline | 3. Jose Goncalves

August 25, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Arpajon-sur-Cère › Montauban – 190.5km

One last flat-ish day before the climber’s get their chance to shine, stage 6 is almost certainly one for the sprinters, who won’t want to miss this opportunity before the mountains.

The three categorized climbs all come relatively early and the stage is neither short nor overly long. In other words, it’s hard to find too much to say about this profile that will keep the sprinters from contesting the finish.

Three sprint stages into the Tour, I can’t really say with much confidence that any one sprinter is head and shoulders above the rest. I still see Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel as being pretty closely matched. I’ll go with Kittel as a slight favorite here. With a good leadout I still think he’s the fastest guy in the race, though Cav looks like a close second and Greipel a close third.

In Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, Dylan Groenewegen, Alexander Kristoff, and Sam Bennett, the Tour peloton has plenty of potential spoilers as well. Also keep an eye on young Edward Theuns, who has looked really good so far in this race.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel

July 7, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Ponte › Roccaraso – 157km

The Giro may have opened with three relatively easy to predict stages, but Thursday’s Stage 6 marks the third straight tough one. Only 157 kilometers in length, the stage nevertheless involves a whole lot of climbing—while only officially including two Cat. 2 climbs.

As the profile indicates, however, both categorized ascents are each part of longer stretches of uphill roads that will wear down the peloton. The climb to the finish is officially just under 18km at a little over 4%. The long, low-gradient climb (coming after several other long uphill stretches on the stages) won’t win anyone the Giro d’Italia, but it will drop the sprinters. With fewer teams around trying to keep the stage together for a bunch kick, but nothing so steep as to force a GC showdown, this could be a great opportunity for the long-range attackers. On the other hand, if the pink jersey contenders do contest the victory as a group, this looks like a prime opportunity for Alejandro Valverde, who can outgun the rest of his rivals at the finish line. His speed is well-documented, and it makes him the man to beat among the GC hopefuls.

Diego Ulissi should be excited about this stage as well. He already has one win in the bag. Stage 6 is another great opportunity for the Italian with a fast finish.

Climbing stars Mikel Landa, Esteban Chaves, Ilnur Zakarin, and Vincenzo Nibali are all candidates to get involved at the finish as well, but it might be too easy of a day for them to really shine. As such, I like Tom Dumoulin‘s chances a bit better. He has a faster finish than many realize. So does Rigoberto Urán.

If this stage does come down to a long-distance move, watch out for Valverde’s Movistar teammate Giovanni Visconti, who thrives on stages like this. Gianluca Brambilla, Stefano Pirazzi, Alessandro De Marchi, Tim Wellens, and even Damiano Cunego are other potential protagonists from afar.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Giovanni Visconti

May 12, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Córdoba › Sierra de Cazorla – 200.3km

The Vuelta peloton will be tested with another uphill finish on Stage 6, and it should be a real challenge despite there being just two Cat. 3 climbs the menu. It’s not a short stage at 200 kilometers and the finale will be a difficult one.

After 130 kilometers of rolling hills comes the first categorized climb of 12km at an average gradient of a little under 4%. It’s not much but it will put some fatigue into the legs. Following a few more rollers and a descent comes the long climb to the finish line, which will last a lot longer than the official categorized finale. Apart from a few moments where the road evens out, it’s uphill from a little more than 20km out all the way to the line, at an average gradient close to 2% for the entirety of the long uphill stretch, which gets more difficult at the end.

The categorized finale itself starts at around 3km to go, and the climb has an average gradient of well over 6%, with a double digit stretch about a kilometer in that could serve as a nice launching pad for an enterprising climber. The road winds left and right a few times up toward the finish, where the gradient is closer to 7%.

The breakaway has a chance at success on this profile but this early in the race there are plenty of potential contenders still in the GC hunt who should be able to reel in any long-range hopefuls on the lengthy climb toward the finish. Expect the red jersey favorites to go toe to toe in the finale, even if it is only a Cat. 3 ascent.

The length of the stage and the fact that the last 20km are almost all uphill should whittle down the peloton and leave only the specialists in contention. Katusha has two. Joaquim Rodríguez has missed out on more than one excellent opportunity already in this race, but he has looked strong enough from a form standpoint and this will be another chance for him to shine. He needs to be aggressive, but he’ll be heard to catch if he does launch an attack in the finale. Daniel Moreno is a strong alternative, especially if the pack is still together near the top of the climb.

Alejandro Valverde already has one stage win in the Vuelta and has a nice opportunity to take a second (and the accompanying bonus seconds) on Stage 6. He can follow attacks rather than making them because he has so a strong sprint, and that makes him dangerous. Nairo Quintana could be interested in going on the move as well.

Dan Martin isn’t always the best at positioning himself for a timely strike, but if he can work that out he’s got the chops to make a move in this finale. Like Purito, he hasn’t quite delivered on the two stages that have seemed to suit him so far in the Vuelta a España, but form doesn’t appear to be an issue.

Fabio Aru has not been the strongest yet in this race but he has the team to set him up for a late strike and explosiveness to execute, if he’s feeling strong. The same is true for teammate Mikel Landa.

Nicolas Roche has been Sky’s strongest performer so far and could get active again, though don’t count out Chris Froome. He’s quietly looking pretty strong in this race, and he always likes an early opportunity to make a show of authority in a Grand Tour. Sergio Henao is another strong option for the black and blue squad.

Rafal Majka, Esteban Chaves, Samuel Sánchez, Bart de Clercq, and Domenico Pozzovivo are other riders to keep an eye on for Stage 6. Tom Dumoulin will have his work cut out for him defending his red jersey on the steep inclines of the final few kilometers.

If the big GC favorites and their support riders spend too much time looking at each other, the opportunists will have a chance at long-range success, either from the early break or with a late move once the initial break has been swept up. The list of potential candidates for the victory in that scenario includes practically every rider on Team Colombia and Caja Rural. Pello Bilbao and Rodolfo Torres stand out as particularly strong options.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodríguez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 6. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 26, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Abbeville › Le Havre – 191.5km

With André Greipel’s second 2015 Tour win now in the books, the peloton is set to take on a 191.5-kilometer journey along the coast from Abbeville to Le Havre on Stage 6. The profile should set up an interesting contest.

There are only three categorized climbs on the road from start to finish, all of them Cat. 4s, and none of them inside the final 25km—but this is a rolling parcours throughout that could make things difficult to control. The finish is the most intriguing part of the stage. Inside the final two kilometers the road kicks upward on the Côte d’Ingouville, 850 meters at 7%, before mostly flattening out for the final half-kilometer or so. It’s not a categorized challenge, but it’s steep enough to put the heavier sprinters at a big positioning disadvantage before the last few hundred meters, and that’s assuming a large group comes to the finish in the first place.

A strong breakaway could have a chance on this profile, especially given the fact that some of the punchier favorites who could thrive in the finale ride for teams with GC interests, teams that might be less interested in wasting energy giving chase to a group up the road. However, with bonus seconds on offer at the line and a relative dearth of stages with opportunities for the less Alpine-inclined in this Tour de France, there should be decent motivation within the pack to keep this together at least into the final few kilometers, from which point it will be anyone’s game.

If he’s well-positioned coming into the final few kilometers, Peter Sagan should be able to handle the late climb and thrive in a somewhat reduced kick. He’s nearly won two sprint stages against the very fastest riders in this Tour de France already; with a bit of help from gravity on the uphill drag near the line on Stage 6, he’ll be very hard to beat. His biggest challenge, as it often is, will probably be other aggressive types trying to steal a march from the peloton a bit further out than the finishing straight—with Contador’s GC aspirations as Tinkoff-Saxo’s primary focus in the race, the team may not be inclined to put in the effort to control the race in the finale. Sagan will need to be alert here.

Lotto Soudal has had a great Tour so far and will have another opportunity for success on Stage 6. André Greipel is obviously on blazing form, having already nabbed two victories in this race. But with the late climb, Tony Gallopin may be the team’s best option here. Having landed an impressive 5th place on the Stage 3 Mur de Huy finish, ahead of some very strong climbers, he has the right mix of uphill ability and explosiveness to be in the mix, especially if there is action in the last few kilometers. This finale suits him very well.

Greg Van Avermaet should appreciate this opportunity to pick up an elusive Tour stage victory. The climb should be just hard enough to jettison some of the heavier types while still allowing Van Avermaet to survive and potentially jump clear. The Belgian is on excellent form right now.

John Degenkolb tends to put in good performances on stages with slightly uphill finishes, but I’m not sure how well he will handle the 7% gradient. That’s a bit steeper than he might like, and with so many strong puncheurs on the startlist, he will have his work cut out for him holding on if some of the better climbers put the pressure on. If he can hold a strong position in the finale, he’ll be deadly, but it won’t be easy.

Alejandro Valverde, on the other hand, would probably prefer a slightly more difficult finale, but he’s a danger regardless. He’s been particularly effective this season in reduced sprints this season, and the bonus seconds on offer on this stage should be great motivation to put in some effort here, though his form is a bit of a question mark after an underwhelming visit to the Mur de Huy on Stage 3. A stronger performance there might have me more confident in his chances here.

An in-form Edvald Boasson Hagen should like the look of this stage. It’s been a long time since he took a big victory but a good result should be well within his reach—he outgunned the likes of Degenkolb and several other strong sprinting favorites on Stage 5 and Stage 6 suits him even better. Michal Kwiatkowski has been a bit underwhelming so far in this Tour de France, but the Amstel Gold Race winner is always a danger on this sort of profile and will be a rider to keep an eye on—he knows how to get clear of a bunch when the opportunity presents itself, and he’s also got a great turn of speed if things stay relatively compact over the final climb. His EQS teammates Matteo Trentin and the surprisingly fast Rigoberto Urán may be dangerous in the finale as well. Mark Cavendish may find the late climb too steep, but if the peloton plays it conservatively, he might have a shot of holding on. Trek teammates Julian Arredondo and Bauke Mollema both rate as strong outsiders for me—they’re known for their climbing prowess but both pack a punch in a finishing kick like this. Sep Vanmarcke, Zdenek Stybar, Bryan Coquard, Joaquim Rodríguez, the Cannondale duo of Dan Martin and Ramunas Navardauskas, and the Lampre-Merida duo of Davide Cimolai and Rui Costa are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Tony Gallopin | 3. Greg Van Avermaet

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race. Check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 6. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 8, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Montecatini Terme › Castiglione della Pescaia – 183km

Following two days of GC action and breakaway success (Jan Polanc won Stage 5 with a long-range move), the peloton will return to mostly flat roads for what should be a day for the sprinters.

Stage 6 opens and closes with long flat sections, with a bit of climbing (a single Cat. 4 and several uncategorized bumps) in between. It’s hard to see anything other than a bunch sprint for victory here. The finale involves a few corners and roundabouts but the last kilometer is basically a straightaway perfectly tailored for a drag race.

Unlike last year’s Giro, the 2015 edition of the Tour of Italy is lacking a dominant sprinter, but there are several very strong quick men who should battle it out for the win.

André Greipel, at his best, should be faster than the field. But he’s looked a bit below his best so far. He’s also somewhat inconsistent, and not prone to take control of all of a race’s sprint stages, even though he can beat the world’s best on a good day. On Stage 2, he opened up his sprint too early and couldn’t sustain his power on the slight incline to the line. Here, he’ll try to time things better, and prove that he’s still got what it takes to be the top favorite for this sort of profile.

Elia Viviani timed things just right on Stage 2, taking a victory on the day, and he’s worn the red jersey ever since. He lacks the level of leadout support that some of his rivals enjoy, but as I already pointed out in the Stage 2 preview when talking up his chances, I tend to think the necessity of a strong leadout is overstated by many observers. A fast rider with positioning savvy can win a sprint without much help, and Viviani has a great chance to do that again on Stage 6. Like Greipel, though he tends to have good and bad days, so it will be interesting to see if he’s still at the same level in this sprint that he was showing off on the second day of the race.

Giacomo Nizzolo has great top-end speed and will love the long, straight finale. He sometimes struggles when timing a jump coming out of a corner is required (even though he is a good bike handler), so he’ll be happy to focus more on the matter of getting up to blazing speed here in this probable sprint finish.

Sacha Modolo has beaten Mark Cavendish more than once in a bunch kick. It’s a bit hard to predict how he’ll do because he can go from hot to cold very quickly, but he seems to be pretty fast right now (he took a nice stage win in Turkey) and like Greipel and Viviani, if he’s on a good day he can be pretty hard to beat.

Moreno Hofland took 2nd on Stage 2 of this race somewhat surprisingly. He’s had big results in the past but against this company and in this big of a race, I didn’t expect him to come so close to the win. He tends to appreciate the slight gradients at the line (which this stage lacks) but he’ll still be dangerous.

Luka Mezgec was 4th on Stage 2 and has the always impressive Giant-Alpecin to set him up nicely coming into the final straightaway. The winner of last year’s final Giro d’Italia stage should be in the mix with the other favorites again.

Michael Matthews may have lost the pink jersey on the road to Abetone, but he’ll have plenty more opportunities for wins in this race, including here in this Stage 6. People often say that Matthews is “not a sprinter” because of his versatility, but in the same way that they’ll say that about Peter Sagan (who just beat Mark Cavendish in a Tour of California sprint) as well, that undermines the amazing finishing kick he does have. He’s capable of winning a bunch sprint if everything goes his way.

Juan José Lobato, Matteo Pelucchi, Tom Boonen, Nicola Ruffoni, and Alessandro Petacchi are others to watch in the field sprint likely to close out Stage 6.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. André Greipel | 2. Elia Viviani | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and remember to check back after the conclusion of Stage 6 for the preview of the next stage.

-Dane Cash

May 14, 2015