Tag: Stage 7

Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Maceda › Puebla de Sanabria – 158.5km

Another day at the Vuelta, another hilly-but-not-too-hilly profile. Stage 7, just like the last several days, could very easily go to the early break or a late move. It could also go to one of the several fast finishers on the start list with decent climbing legs.

The late Cat. 3 isn’t particularly intimidating, but it is followed by a long descent. That will give any attackers (either from an early break or in a late move) a nice shot to stay clear as the sprint teams take time getting organized.

Still, there are a few teams with versatile speedsters on the roster, enough to motivate the bunch to chase—as such, it’s probably worth starting with the likes of Gianni Meersman.

He’s proven to be the rider to beat in the sprints in this Vuelta, and he’s got a great skillset for this sort of stage. It’s up to team cooperation to make this a sprint, but he’s deserving of favorite status in that scenario.

Fabio Felline is another rider capable of surviving the parcours and getting into the mix in a sprint. Trek also has Niccolo Bonifazio, giving the team two great options.

Kristian Sbaragli, Tosh Van der Sande, Magnus Cort Nielsen, and Nikias Arndt are other candidates for a sprint.

Philippe Gilbert is one to watch on that last climb. Punchy as he is, this a great profile for him, and he’s got the speed to win a reduced sprint.

The same could be said for Alejandro Valverde. He’s looked very strong in this race. He’s not a candidate from the early break like Gilbert might be, but he’ll be deadly if there aren’t many riders left by the time the bunch pulls into the final 25km.

José Goncalves, Luis León Sánchez, Simon Clarke, and Zdenek Stybar are others to keep an eye on in an attacking scenario.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Fabio Felline | 3. Philippe Gilbert

August 26, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: L’Isle-Jourdain › Lac de Payolle – 162.5km

The first real climber’s stage of the Tour is here! Stage 7 is pretty straightforward: it’s all about the Cat. 1 Col d’Aspin (12km at 6.5%) and the ensuing descent to a slightly uphill finish.

The stage will certainly bring the climbers to the fore, but since the climb isn’t that challenging, I see the strong descenders and punchy finishers as having the best shot at winning the day.

Dan Martin certainly fits the bill. He’s looked good so far in the race and with his fast finish I think he can be a real threat here. His teammate Julian Alaphilippe is a danger man as well.

And while we’re on the subject of Ardennes-type riders, it’s certainly worth naming Alejandro Valverde, who would be my favorite here if he weren’t playing second fiddle to Nairo Quintana on GC. As it is, I still see Valverde with a good chance.

The same is true for Joaquím Rodríguez. This is a nice finish for him, and the stage in general could present a nice opportunity to try for a long-range attack.

The same goes for Vincenzo Nibali. I initially had him pegged as a top favorite for the stage before his first few days on Tour. He hasn’t been particularly impressive so far but this is still a profile that suits him.

Romain Bardet, Steve Cummings, Rui Costa, Rafal Majka, Tony Gallopin, Ilnur Zakarin, and, of course, any one of Quintana, Chris Froome, or Fabio Aru could deliver here as well.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Dan Martin | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez

July 8, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Sulmona › Foligno – 211km

The Giro’s 7th stage looks like another day that will test the sprinters’ limits—though my first inclination is that there will be several fast men who survive the parcours to contest the finale. The profile continues just two categorized climbs, and the first comes very early in the stage.

The Cat. 4 crested 41 kilometers from the finish, however, looks harder than your normal Cat. 4. By the time the peloton reaches the top, they’ll have been climbing for about 17km at a gradient of around 3%. That’s not a particularly steep ascent, but it’s a long time to be going upward. It might be too much for some of the purer sprinters. It could also motivate a few attacks, which will, in turn, be more likely to go the distance if sprinters get dropped.

The finish is an interesting one, adding a further wrinkle to this story. There are four technical corners inside the final 1.5km: a hard right, two hard lefts, and then a right hook. It’s not a finish for the faint of heart.

I still see the most likely outcome as a field sprint, but this could be a nice chance for the quick men who haven’t quite been able to pull it off so far. Marcel Kittel and André Greipel will be the big favorites if they’re there in the last 500 meters, with the edge going to Kittel in a head to head—but that late climb might be a bit much for Kittel, and Greipel has never been the best in tricky finales, which at least makes it worth bringing up a few other names.

Giacomo Nizzolo can handle a lumpier day and he thrives in technical finishing circuits. This will definitely be a day he has on his mind. Arnaud Démare shouldn’t be troubled by the profile, and he has looked very strong so far in this race. Sacha Modolo could be in the mix as well.

Elia Viviani and Caleb Ewan are the other obvious sprint names that could factor in Stage 7.

And if the sprinters don’t make it to the line? Sonny Colbrelli, Diego Ulissi, Adam Hansen, and his teammate (and Stage 6 winner) Tim Wellens will likely be on the lookout for a chance to nab the stage.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. André Greipel | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

May 13, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Jódar › La Alpujarra – 191.1km

The first Cat. 1 summit finish of the 2015 Vuelta awaits on Stage 7. Like Thursday’s stage to Cazorla, Friday’s stage will put the peloton through another long day of rolling hills, but the finishing climb on Stage 7 is considerably more challenging.

For the first 170 kilometers of the day, the road takes on successive stretches of gradual climbs and gradual descents, with a single 9km Cat. 3 the most challenging of the many minor climb along the route. The final 20 kilometers of the stage, however, will offer a real test of uphill strength.

At around kilometer 170, the route angles upwards towards the official start of the Cat. 1 summit finish, the 18.7km Alto Capileira. The climb has an average gradient of 5%, but that doesn’t really tell the full story. The first 6 kilometers are a bit steeper than that average, and then the road flattens out for about 4km, and then it kicks up again for the rest of the way to the line. The final 9km angle upward at closer to 7%, with a particularly steep section near the finish of about 14%.

The Alto de Capileira will be hard enough to put the GC favorites to the test, with the irregular nature of the climb adding to the difficulty. Whether or not the red jersey hopefuls will be doing battle for the stage win as well as for positions on the overall leaderboard is another matter—the profile will be an appealing one for the breakaway. However, it will take a talented group to stay clear on such a tough day, and most of the top climbers in the Vuelta are still in relatively close GC contention, limiting the number of legitimate candidates for long-range success. I like the chances of the GC riders this early in the race.

Movistar’s two-pronged attack won’t be easy for anyone to counter. Alejandro Valverde has not been particularly aggressive so far in this race, relying on his fast finish to take his stage victory, but he has nevertheless looked strong. He knows the area, he is very motivated to build on his early advantage in the GC battle, and he can win with an attack or in a reduced sprint at the top of the climb if there is no separation at the line. Nairo Quintana may be more of a foil than anything right now. Obviously the two-time Tour de France runner-up is a major threat to win any stage with this sort of finish, but he has looked slightly less than 100% at this point in the race, and in the heat of southern Spain. He’s a danger, but more than anything his presence may boost Valverde’s chances.

A week ago I saw Fabio Aru as the favorite for Stage 7, but now I’m not sure how to judge his chances. He should be fresher than the rest of the top GC contenders in the Vuelta who are coming off the Tour de France, he showed nice form in the Tour of Poland, and this stage suits him perfectly, with a nice late launching pad that looks tailored to his skillset. However, he hasn’t looked quite as strong as expected so far in this race, so I can’t quite name him the outright favorite. Still, he’s an obvious candidate for success and it wouldn’t be any surprise if he attacked for the win. Mikel Landa could do damage as well on this climb.

Joaquim Rodríguez is another rider whose form is hard to judge right now—he has missed out on several opportunities so far in this Vuelta, letting others making successful attacks on stages that have seemed to suit him. But that may simply be because Rodríguez is focused entirely on the overall title, unwilling to risk his GC position in the hunt for stage wins. This stage certainly suits him. Daniel Moreno is another option for Katusha.

Chris Froome has quietly ridden very well in the early goings at the Vuelta. For whatever reason, many observers underrate Froome’s peak climbing ability, and I think some are underestimating him here. He’s not at his peak, of course, but if he’s even close to it he’s capable of leaving the entire peloton in the dust. Froome loves to make an early statement, and this is a prime opportunity to do just that on a long climb that suits him well. Nicolas Roche and Sergio Henao are other strong options for Sky.

Esteban Chaves has been brilliant so far in this Vuelta, and while both of his stage victories have involved an element of tactical boneheadedness from the likes of Katusha and Co., they wouldn’t have happened if Chaves weren’t on blazing form. This is a very long climb for the young Colombian to undertake but the likes of Valverde and Rodríguez have shown little interest in chasing him so far and that could be to his advantage yet again if he can survive the long road to the top and make a late strike.

Domenico Pozzovivo, Tejay van Garderen, Dan Martin, and Rafal Majka are others who could be in the mix for Stage 7.

As suggested for Stage 6, keep an eye on Caja Rural and Team Colombia for the likely breakaway contenders on Stage 7. It will be a tall order to hold off the pack on the Alto Capileira, but Pello Bilbao and Fabio Duarte are among those with a shot. Pierre Rolland, Joe Dombrowski, and Samuel Sánchez are other riders who could have success with a long-range strike.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Fabio Aru

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 7. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 27, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Livarot › Fougères – 190.5km

Zdenek Stybar made the most of a small gap earned on a late climb to come away with a stage victory on Stage 6, denying a charging pack of chasers on his tail. Many of those same chasers, along with a number of the heavier quick men they left behind on the final ascent, will be hopeful for another chance at glory on Stage 7. The 190.5-kilometer road from Livarot to Fougères includes just one categorized climb, a Cat. 4 in the first 15 kilometers. After that, it’s gentle rollers and stretches of flat all the way to the finish.

There are a few twists and turns and roundabouts inside the last 10 kilometers, which lead into a finishing straight that angles slightly uphill in the final few hundred meters. With several GC-oriented days (in the form of a few climber-friendly stages with a team time trial squeezed in among them) just around the corner at the Tour de France, Stage 7 will be a prime opportunity for the sprinters to fight for a victory before their aspirations take a backseat for a while to the hopes of the yellow jersey contenders.

Coming into the Tour, Mark Cavendish looked to be the strongest sprinter in the race, but he’s been beaten twice now by André Greipel, making the pecking order of fast-finishing elite in this race a bit less clear. In both of Greipel’s wins, though, the leadout did not go according to plan for Cavendish, leaving the Manx sprinter in the wind for far too long—that makes it difficult to draw concrete conclusions about this matchup in terms of pure speed. On the other hand, Greipel’s acceleration on Stage 5 was quite an impressive sight by any measurement, and the way he blew past Cavendish in the final few hundred meters makes it hard to ignore just how strong he is right now.

In short, I see this as pretty close to a dead heat. If I had to deem one the favorite, I’d still name Cavendish the rider to beat. QuickStep has, amazingly, won two stages and taken the yellow jersey in the first week of the Tour de France all without a Cavendish victory. If they can finally muster all their talents toward setting their sprinter up for a high-speed finish, he’ll be hard to beat. If not, Greipel has shown that he’s quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunity.

In terms of racking up near misses at stages that seem to suit him perfectly, Peter Sagan has picked up in this Tour de France right where he left off in the 2014 edition of the race. He’ll have another chance here, and in fact, I think he has a better shot that the profile might suggest. With a slight incline at the very end of the day, a few late roundabouts that favor his strong positioning skills, and the terrific form he’s shown in the sprints these past few days, he should be in the mix for the win even against the likes of Cavendish and Greipel.

John Degenkolb would probably prefer a more challenging approach to the line but he brings a lot of speed to the table in any scenario and should be able to fight for the win. Like Sagan, he’s had multiple near-victories, and is extremely motivated to finally take that elusive victory. Alexander Kristoff has been a bit slow to start in this Tour but he was in the mix on Stage 5 and this stage suits him well. Arnaud Démare, Greg Van Avermaet, Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, Davide Cimolai, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others who should have a shot here.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 7. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 9, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Grosseto › Fiuggi – 264km

Prior to the start, Stage 6 of the Giro d’Italia did not look like it was going to create many headlines, but a compelling first week of this race took another twist when Alberto Contador hit the deck hard in the finishing sprint as André Greipel was taking the stage victory. The Giro should offer yet another intriguing day of racing on Stage 7, the longest day of the race, with a parcours that could set up several different scenarios.

There is just one categorized climb on this stage, and it is a Cat. 4 at that, but second half of the profile, and in particular the final 50km, involve a lot of up-and-down. The finale in particular has some challenges—there is a short but somewhat steep climb with around 20km to go, then a sharp descent, then a stretch of over 5km at over 4%, followed by a flatter run-in to a finish that kicks up once again in the last kilometer. The final 350 meters rise at between 3 and 4%. It’s nothing terribly steep, but the riders are sure to hit it at a very high pace, and after a very long day, it’s going to hurt. The punchier riders are going to be able to hold their positions better into the finale, and they’ll also be better-suited to the finale because of it’s gradient.

The bumpy nature of this stage and its position just before a difficult mountain day will combine to make this a tough one to predict. It’s possible this comes down to a bunch sprint, with some of the purer sprinters holding on. With this finale, it’s also possible that Stage 7 puts the bigger quick men into difficulty, leaving the more versatile types to fight it out in a reduced sprint. And it’s always possible that a breakaway takes the win, bolstered by the fact that many will be saving energy for the difficult Stage 8 on the horizon. The breakaway scenario could also see some of those same versatile riders trying their luck with a long-range move, as well as several breakaway specialists.

Michael Matthews is the most obvious choice of favorites to win this stage in a sprint. He’s got the climbing chops to potentially survive the late bumps in the road and the finishing kick to be deadly the last few kilometers, even if there are other speedsters around.

JJ Lobato is also among the favorites, thanks to his top-notch uphill speed. Lobato thrives in a small uphill finishes, and that’s what this is. After a slow start to his Giro d’Italia, he seems to have found his legs. Fabio Felline, 2nd on Stage 3, should be able to hold on if this comes down to a group finish, and he’s a dangerous young rider in that potential scenario.

Philippe Gilbert is also a great uphill charger, who adds the breakaway factor to the conversation—he’s already been in a breakaway in this race, and he showed great form to take 3rd in that stage despite spending time out front and then getting caught by the pack. Gilbert is fully capable of winning this stage from the pack or from afar, and that makes him a top-level favorite.

Diego Ulissi would probably prefer more climbing, but like Gilbert, he’s a punchy finisher with the capacity to win with a long-range strike or in a reduced bunch sprint. Bardiani-CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli and Enrico Battaglin, Giant-Alpecin’s Simon Geschke, Southeast’s Francesco Gavazzi, Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans and Simon Clarke, CCC’s Grega Bole, Katusha’s Luca Paolini, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler and Sylvain Chavanel are others with the versatility to be in the mix whether they stick with the peloton or go from afar. Adam Hansen, Giovanni Visconti, Maciej Paterski, and Stefano Pirazzi (as with most intermediate stages, Bardiani-CSF will be overflowing with options here) are among those who will likely need to be in the day’s breakaway to have a chance on Stage 7, but who will be very dangerous if they’re up there.

Giacomo Nizzolo told the Recon Ride that he’s interested in this stage, but it will be pretty tough for the purer sprinters like Nizzolo to survive those late climbs after such a long day. Still, it’s worth keeping an eye on Nizzolo and his bunch sprint rivals like André Greipel, Sacha Modolo, Elia Viviani, Luka Mezgec, and Moreno Hofland.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Juan José Lobato

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and remember to check back after the conclusion of Stage 7 for the preview of the next stage.

-Dane Cash

May 15, 2015