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Tag: Stage 8

  • Tour de France 2014: Stage 8 Preview

    Tour de France 2014: Stage 8 Preview

    Stage 8 Profile

    Stage 8: Tomblaine › Gérardmer La Mauselaine – 161 km

    In the Tour’s seventh stage, Matteo Trentin earned his second career Tour de France win on a mostly flat day with a late sting in the tail. Stage 8 is another day of mostly flat roads leading into a late challenge, but this time the sting is a whole lot nastier. After 133 kilometers with only a few minor rollers, the Stage 8 profile suddenly turns savage. First comes the tough Cat. 2 climb of the Col de la Croix des Moinats, 7.6 km at an average gradient of 6%. After a speedy descent comes another Cat. 2 of 3 km at a steeper 7.5%. One more fast downhill leads into the final 1.8 kilometers, where the road kicks up in a vicious 10.3% average gradient 3rd Category climb to the Gérardmer finish. It’s not a long day, but the three late climbs are sure to weed out those who are not at the top of their game.

    The early break will likely get a big advantage in the first two hours of racing, and with no chance for the pure sprinters at this finish and mountains on the horizon, the peloton’s chase may be a bit less spirited than we’ve seen on other stages. There is a chance of breakaway success here. Still, this will be the first real opportunity for the climbing specialists to do damage in the General Classification fight, which will probably lead to a real injection of pace from the pack in the last forty kilometers or so, at which point the break may struggle to hold their advantage on the flat run-in to the climbs. As such, this could be the first stage in the Tour that ends in a showdown among the GC candidates (with a few other punchy types likely in the mix as well). Any one of the day’s three uphill challenges could see action, with fireworks guaranteed on the steep final ascent.

    With this finale, Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has to be a rider to watch. The winner of the 2014 edition of La Fleche Wallonne is one of most explosive uphill finishers in the peloton, and he has been on top form all year, flashing his brilliance with victory after victory since February. With a chance to pick up time on his rivals, he’s certain to light up these late climbs.

    Close behind Valverde at every turn in the Ardennes Classics was Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Stage 7 looked like a great opportunity for the versatile Kwiatkowski, but it turned out that he and his team were working for the also versatile Matteo Trentin. Kwiatkowski will have his opportunity on Stage 8. The short climbs are his forte, and he won’t have a problem with the descents that lead into the last climb of the day.

    As one might expect on a stage involving a succession of late ascents closed out by a 10.3% climb, Alberto Contador will be a major player as well. The Tinkoff-Saxo leader knows he needs to pick up time on GC at every opportunity. An excellent descender, he may even try to strike out on the first or second categorized climb and attempt to grab an advantage from further out (and this could happen whether the peloton has reeled in the break or not). Contador has been unrivaled on the climbs so far this year, and this steep finish will allow him to turn the screws on his opponents for the yellow jersey of the Tour de France.

    Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez would perhaps be the top favorite on this finish if his form weren’t in question. It is not clear how far along he is in his post-Giro recovery. Still, it’s hard to draw up a final two kilometers more perfect for Purito than these, and now that he’s further behind on GC than Andre Girepel, he’ll have the added benefit of being able to go on the attack without worrying the GC men. Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter and OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini are other very strong puncheurs who could enjoy that sort of freedom as well; head-to-head against the likes of Valverde this could be too steep for them, but as non-threats for the yellow jersey, they may be allowed off the front if they want to go for it. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is further down on GC than he would have hoped, but that will at least grant him more flexibility to strike on Stage 8. It’s not one that necessarily favors him over the other GC types, but if he gets ahead of the pack in a move of non-GC riders, his chances will be good.

    Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa and Chris Horner and Belkin’s Bauke Mollema should handle the final slopes well. AG2R’s Romain Bardet has shown some punch at times this year. This will be a good test to see just how strong Sky’s new leader Richie Porte is on the climbs right now. Garmin-Sharp’s Andrew Talansky and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck don’t immediately come to mind on a final climb like this, but both have looked to be on excellent form in the past few weeks.

    Katusha’s Simon Spilak, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, AG2R’s Christophe Riblon, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo are all excellent climbers who are out of the GC picture entirely, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them among those trying something from afar. Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier of Europcar are almost certain to be on the lookout for long-range success on Stage 8. Jan Bakelants of OPQS may be as well. It will be interesting to see if Tinkoff-Saxo puts any of Contador’s elite trio of lieutenants (Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche, and Michael Rogers) up the road. Lastly, Cannondale’s Peter Sagan at least deserves a mention: I highly doubt that he will be in the mix on something as steep as this last climb, but he was among the Top 15 riders in 2013’s La Fleche Wallonne; he may at least give it a shot!

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Alberto Contador | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

    Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 8, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

    -Dane Cash

  • Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 8 Preview

    Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 8 Preview

    Stage 8 Profile

    Stage 8: Foligno > Montecopiolo – 179 km

    Most of the major GC action in the Giro so far has come as a result of crashes on constantly wet roads, but Stage 8 will finally offer the sort of uphill tests to set up the first major mountain battle of the race. The pink jersey contenders were able to enjoy some time in the backseat on Stage 7 while the sprint teams took up the task of pulling back the day’s breakaway (Nacer Bouhanni was the stage winner just ahead of Giacomo Nizzolo and Luka Mezgec). Hopefully the overall contenders got as much rest as possible, because Stage 8 closes out with a Cat. 1 ascent, a very tricky descent, and then a two-part climb, officially classified as a Cat. 2, followed by a quick descent, and then a Cat. 1 finish.

    Stage 8 Final Climb Hero2

    Coming in such quick succession, the already difficult climbs will inject serious pain into the legs of anyone who isn’t at full strength. The ascent up the Cippo di Carpegna, which averages nearly 10%, will wear on even the best climbers, but following it up with an irregular climb up to the finish at Montecopiolo practically guarantees that gaps will start to form. Even if a small group manages to hold it together at the front most of the way up, the final few hundred meters of racing kick up to 13%, which should force some separation as the very lightest climbers jump for the finish.

    Naturally, with some serious mountains on the docket, it will probably be the serious climbers who challenge for stage supremacy. We haven’t had that much of an opportunity to see which of them are on the best form right now, but this stage should help sort that out. On reputation and ability, Nairo Quintana is the somewhat obvious choice for stage favorite. Having lost some valuable seconds to his biggest rivals across the TTT and crash-filled sixth stage, Quintana needs to get moving on pulling back time. He’ll benefit from the help of a strong Movistar squad, with the likes of Eros Capecchi and Igor Anton as great lieutenants. This is an important opportunity to for Movistar to set the tone as the Giro enters its more difficult second and third weeks.

    Rigoberto Uran is another rider who will look to make a statement here. He’s sitting nicely in the GC standings thanks to his Omega Pharma’s strong Stage 1 performance, but this is a real test of form. He’s had a mostly forgettable season on the climbs so far, but at his best he can mix it up with the elite mountain goats in the peloton. Furthermore, he’s got an explosive uphill kick, and if he reaches the final few hundred meters in a group, he’ll love the opportunity to launch a move for bonus seconds.

    BMC’s Cadel Evans is also looking great for GC at the moment, bolstered by an excellent early TTT and the chunk of time he picked up on Stage 6. Winning this stage will be a lot to ask, as it’s a real question whether he can hang with the best climbers in this race at this point in his career, but with his stellar Giro del Trentino, he looks to have timed his peak nicely this season.

    AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo looked very impressive catching back onto the peloton after being held up in the crash on Stage 6. He’s an elite climber who will be looking to gain time at every uphill opportunity, and I think this one suits him nicely. As I mentioned in my overall race preview, I really do expect him to mix it up with the big favorites in this Giro, and this will be his first test.

    With Nicolas Roche out of the maglia rosa picture, Rafal Majka is now the guy for Tinkoff-Saxo’s GC ambitions. He was never far from the front on the toughest tests of last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he has another year of experience in 2014. I like his chances, especially with a very strong team backing him. Then again, I also wouldn’t put it past Roche to be on the hunt for stage wins now that he’s a non-factor for the pink jersey.

    Trek’s Julian Arredondo and Lampre’s Diego Ulissi are explosive young climbers who will hope to hang on through a very difficult day and then launch late attacks on the irregular final slope. As yet another rider losing time in Stage 6, Arredondo has the added benefit of no longer being a GC threat, and may therefore be given some leeway to strike out for stage glory.

    Astana has a number of weapons to animate the climb, and I think they’ll be very aggressive with attacks. Fabio Aru is very well placed for GC, and he’s a great climber. Michele Scarponi needs to win back some time. Mikel Landa is always looking for opportunities to put his uphill ability on display. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi, Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal, Katusha’s Daniel Moreno, Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte, and Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec are other riders to watch.

    It wouldn’t be out of the question for the GC heavyweights to let a real outsider go off the front, but so many of them are already in a position where every bonus second counts, so I expect to see the bigger names contesting the stage win here.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Rigoberto Uran | 3. Domenico Pozzovivo

    Stage 8 should provide some great insights into which riders are on top form right now. Check back a few hours after the finish for the preview of Stage 9, which will throw another uphill challenge at the peloton. If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

    -Dane Cash