Tag: Stage 9

Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Cistierna › Oviedo – 164.5km

Sunday’s stage is a tricky one to predict, with an up-and-down parcours that favors aggressive riding. The two Cat. 2s and three Cat. 3s are enough to favor the stronger climbers, though it’s hard to say whether it’ll be the GC men or the stagehunters leading the way at the line.

The final ascent of the Alto del Naranco, 5.7km at 6.1%, will likely draw some GC action, but none of the climbs are long or steep enough to motivate a serious chase in the peloton.

I think the breakers have a nice chance to take the victory, though it’s hard to name any one potential long-range protagonist who seems as likely to win as the one or two standout names who have a shot in the bunch.

Luis León Sánchez has been very active so far in this Vuelta en route to a pair of top 5 finishes, and this stage suits his talents well. Astana should be all in for stage wins, which means Sánchez should be looking for opportunities to either get into the early, or a late move on the final climbs.

José Goncalves has been active as well. I think it’s only a matter of time before he makes it into the right escape. He’s got a nice punchy finish that will come in handy if he’s near the front at the end of the day.

Simon Clarke has made his presence known early on in the race and I expect him to continue to fight for any results he can—Cannondale needs them as the season is nearing its close. Jan Bakelants, Thomas De Gendt, Alexandre Geniez, Fabio Felline, and Philippe Gilbert are others to watch from afar.

Gianluca Brambilla is a strong candidate for stage success who falls somewhere near the dividing line between the GC men and the stagehunters. He’s too close on GC to be ignored in an early breakaway, but he has the potential to get into a long-range move if one gets clear within the last 50km or so.

Alejandro Valverde is the obvious favorite for a GC-oriented battle. The climb isn’t hard enough to blow the red jersey group apart, and Valverde’s sprint makes him deadly. His teammate Daniel Moreno and countryman Samuel Sánchez also have potential in a punchy finish, as does Simon Yates. Nairo Quintana, Chris Froome, and Esteban Chaves are all worth keeping an eye on as well, of course, but I’d be surprised to see any of them taking the stage victory on this final climb.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Luis León Sánchez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Gianluca Brambilla

August 28, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Vielha Val d’Aran › Andorre Arcalis – 184.5km

The last day of racing before the first rest day, Stage 9 should be a real GC showdown, especially since Stage 7 and 8 lacked much in the way of major time gaps. The profile certainly provides ample opportunity. There is very little flat along the road to Arcalis, with several uncategorized uphill stretches to go along with the many downhill kilometers.

The first four categorized climbs should serve to soften up the legs considerably. Then comes the final climb, an hors categorie challenge of 10.1km at 7.2%. Particularly in its position as the day’s fifth hard climb, the Arcalis will undoubtedly draw out attacks.

The up-and-down nature of this profile will have the breakers excited about their chances, but with the GC still so open I wouldn’t be surprised to the teams of the yellow jersey hopefuls keeping any long-range move on a short leash. As such, Stage 9 could come down to a battle among all the big GC stars.

Chris Froome remains my favorite for the tough mountain stages. Although he gained some time in Stage 8, it wasn’t much, and I think Froome is still hoping to deliver that early coup de grace for which he has become known. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen here. His team looked great Saturday.

Nairo Quintana remains the other obvious choice in the mountains. Sure, he sort of got caught sleeping in Stage 8, but he appeared to be climbing well and that’s what will matter on these gradients. His Movistar teammate Alejandro Valverde can’t be counted out either.

On peak form Fabio Aru is a top pick here but he’s a bit of an unknown right now. Dan Martin, Romain Bardet, Rui Costa, and Joaquím Rodríguez have nice potential among the GC men as well, particularly if it comes down to a small group late.

Rafal Majka and Thibaut Pinot could try to get back into the mix too after spending time in the breakaway Saturday—both are talented enough to win from the pack or the break, making them extra dangerous. The long list of other potential breakers includes Alberto Contador, Steve Cummings, Rubén Plaza, and Ilnur Zakarin.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Richie Porte

July 10, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Radda in Chianti › Greve in Chianti – 40.5km (ITT)

The Giro’s ninth stage is a critical 40.5-kilometer individual time trial with a very intriguing profile. There is a significant net altitude loss on the day, meaning that while there is some climbing to do, the heavier TT specialists should really enjoy this one.

The course has a few technical sections along the way. The main challenge comes in the final third of the stage as the riders take on a climb of about 5km at a little under 4%. From the top, it’s downhill almost all the way to the line.

A few days ago, Tom Dumoulin would have been my heavy favorite for this stage, given the form he showed early in the Giro. I’d still name him as my top favorite, but his less-than-stellar showing on Stage 8 has me a bit concerned that maybe he’s not feeling 100% at the moment. Still, this time trial suits him well and he’s elite against the clock.

Fabian Cancellara is the other top TT specialist on the startlist, and if he weren’t recovering from illness he’d be a sure thing to contend for the stage win. As it stands, he’s definitely still a contender, but again, it’s hard to say just how well he’ll do. The descents do suit him.

Bob Jungels can run hot and cold but when he’s good, he’s good. He could be in the mix. Ilnur Zakarin should be in contention as well. He looks very strong right now. Rigoberto Urán is the other GC contender that I see having a good shot here. He’s been a bit quiet so far in this race, but he has to know that Stage 9 is his big chance to open up a gap to his pink jersey rivals.

Stefan Küng, Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde, Primoz Roglic, Steven Kruijswijk, and Andrey Amador are others to watch in the ITT.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Ilnur Zakarin

May 15, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Torrevieja › Benitatxell – 168.3km

The Vuelta takes on another GC-oriented stage in its ninth day. Most of the relatively short stage is flat, but things get a bit more difficult in the final 50km. A Cat. 2 trip up the Alto de Puig Llorenca comes first, 3.3km at a steep 8.9%. Then comes a steep descent, followed by a more gentle stretch of downhill that extends for over 20km to the intermediate sprint at kilometer 155. Afterward comes a small uncategorized bump, another steep descent, and then the second trip up the Puig Llorenca, from a different side this time. The average gradient is again 8.9%, but it’s a 4.1km journey to the finish line at the top. A particularly brutal stretch of 19% awaits right in the middle of the climb, and the final few hundred meters hit the double digits again.

At just 4.1 kilometers long, the finishing climb is not exactly the Stelvio, but its vicious gradients will make for an explosive challenge. Now that Stage 7 has offered a glimpse of what’s what in this GC showdown, the stronger riders could seize the opportunity to put their rivals into the red zone on the extreme slope.

After a challenging, hot first week, and with an escapee-friendly profile, Stage 9 could appeal to the breakaway specialists. The usual favorites among the GC men haven’t exactly shown a great deal of interest in fighting for stage wins. However, none of the marquee climbers have fallen too far out of contention just yet in this Vuelta, and it will take a pretty strong group to survive if the peloton does ramp up the pace in preparation for the final climb, so it’s hard to see any individual breakaway candidates as top favorites over the heavy hitters in the red jersey battle.

The short but brutally steep climb should suit Joaquim Rodríguez. Based on his skillset, he has to be seen as a favorite. However, Rodríguez has been very conservative so far in the race, and that makes it harder to view him as anything close to a consensus top pick for the stage. He can’t expect to hesitate his way to a stage win, or a Vuelta win for that matter. If he goes on the move, he’ll be deadly. The same is true for Katusha teammate Daniel Moreno.

Fabio Aru was the strongest rider on Stage 7, opening up a significant gap on his rivals when he launched his move on the final climb. Unlike Rodríguez, he took risks on that stage, and he might be looking to do so again here. This climb doesn’t suit him all that well compared to a few of the extremely explosive climbers on the startlist, but I think he’s strong enough to win anyway. Mikel Landa makes for a fine alternative for Astana.

Esteban Chaves has shown already in this Vuelta that this sort of climb suits him well. Getting into the second week of the race, Chaves is entering unknown territory, but he hasn’t shown signs of slowing down yet, and he could find himself in the mix again on Stage 9.

Alejandro Valverde has looked strong so far in the Vuelta, but maybe not at peak form. He also isn’t particularly keen on jumping clear of the pack, which he’ll probably need to do to win this stage. Still he’s always a danger, as is Nairo Quintana, who could light up this race at any minute once he starts getting back to his best.

Domenico Pozzovivo should find the terrain to his liking, and after a slow start he looks to be getting stronger. Unlike most of the other red jersey hopefuls, Pozzovivo doesn’t have a Grand Tour in his legs, and could find himself feeling a lot fresher than his rivals. He also might get a bit of leeway if he goes on the attack, as the likes of Movistar and Katusha look at each other instead of anyone else.

Nicolas Roche will find this gradient extreme, but he has looked good so far, as has Sky teammate Mikel Nieve. I’m not ready to write Chris Froome off yet either, though I still probably won’t write him off even if he loses ground on this stage, for that matter, as I think he’s riding himself back into form at the moment.

Rafal Majka, Samuel Sánchez, and Louis Meintjes are others to watch on the final climb.

If the GC favorites don’t feel like putting their teams to work chasing down escapees, Pello Bilbao, Rodolfo Torres, Fabio Duarte, Gianluca Brambilla, Alessandro De Marchi, Bart De Clercq, Daniel Navarro, and Cyril Gautier are among the many riders who could find success in the early break or with a late strike.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Fabio Aru | 2. Joaquim Rodríguez | 3. Domenico Pozzovivo

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 9. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here. Also, don’t miss the latest Recon Ride, which covers all the big storylines ahead of Sunday GP Ouest-France.

August 29, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9 (TTT): Vannes › Plumelec – 28km

Alexis Vuillermoz’s hilltop victory on Stage 8 heralded a stretch of important days for the GC riders at the 2015 Tour de France. Next up: a 28km team time trial.

The road from Vannes to Plumelec is quite an interesting one as team time trial courses go, with three uncategorized (but still significant) climbs in the profile. The last of them has a 6% gradient for nearly 2km. Uphill finishes are uncommon for team time trials, so it’s going to be interesting to see how the teams handle the intriguing route, especially after a brutal first week that threw bad weather, rough terrain, and harsh climbs at the peloton.

Still, tired as the riders are, the flat and downhill stretches on this course are likely to be taken quite fast, as there aren’t many twists and turns to slow down the teams on their way.

BMC is the heavy favorite to win this stage. They are the reigning world champions in the discipline, with four of those six worlds-winning riders on the BMC roster at the Tour. The rolling parcours should not trouble them too much, as most of the riders are capable climbers as well. With the yellow jersey well within Tejay van Garderen’s grasp, motivation will be high for BMC, and they’ll also have the advantage of a late start thanks his current third-place position on the GC leaderboard.

It would be a surprise for anyone else to win this stage, but Team Sky has a shot. The black and blue squad was less-than-stellar in the team time trial at the recent Critérium du Dauphiné, but the stakes are much higher here (and Sky is more motivated to succeed on the sport’s biggest stage), and the riders making up the squad certainly don’t lack for chrono talent. The parcours should suit them well, as Sky is packing probably the best lineup of climbing ability in the Tour de France.

Movistar also has a chance at victory, with Adriano Malori and Alex Dowsett leading the team and plenty of other time trial talents on the squad as well. Alejandro Valverde may be known for his explosive climbing legs but he’s no slouch against the clock, and even Nairo Quintana can put in a good TT when there are hills involved.

Astana is the third team that I see having a chance at besting top favorite BMC. A similar lineup of Astana riders went second to BMC in the team time trial at the Dauphiné, and the importance of this race should have them motivated to ride at a very high level.

Etixx-Quick-Step, lacking Tony Martin, will have a much harder time vying for the win here than they would have with him leading the way—that said, don’t be surprised if they still put in a good ride. There is still some TT-ing talent on the roster. Tinkoff-Saxo has put in a few strong TTTs so far this year but they are lacking some of their stronger riders against the clock for this test. Katusha is in the same boat, but in a much more extreme fashion—Joaquim Rodríguez could lose a big chunk of time on this stage, as Katusha, despite delivering a few impressive team time trial successes this season, is down in numbers, and they left most of their strong TT talents at home anyway.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. BMC | 2. Sky | 3. Movistar

With a rest day on tap following Stage 9, the next stage preview will be up on Monday—in the meantime, be sure to check out the Recon Ride podcast, which will publish a new episode previewing the next week of racing not long after Sunday’s TTT!

-Dane Cash

July 11, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Benevento › San Giorgio del Sannio – 224km

Beñat Intxausti was the breakaway victor on an unpredictable Giro Stage 8, and the Stage 9 that follows will be even more unpredictable, and probably even more breakaway-friendly.

The riders will set out from Benevento and take on a few small ups and downs before coming to a brutal pairing of climbs. First they’ll hit the slopes of the overlong Monte Termino, a 20km Cat. 2 with a 4.2% average gradient. After the descent, the riders will immediately begin the Cat. 1 Colle Molella, 9.5km at an average gradient of 6.3%, but with a long steep stretch near the KOM marker—and after a brief flat section following the mountains points, the road continues to climb for a few more kilometers!

Then comes another descent and a long stretch of ups and downs before the third and final categorized climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Passo Serra, only 3.6km long but with an 8% average gradient. It will be a great launching pad for the aggressors, as it’s followed by a steep descent and then a short climb that leads into the mostly flat final 3km.

With climbs throughout, three major KOM opportunities, and a finish that probably won’t be all that enticing for the GC favorites, this is stage screams breakaway. Even if Astana or Tinkoff-Saxo or a team that has missed the break decide to set a high tempo late in the day, it will be extremely difficult to control the race on this profile. Stage 9 looks great for a punchy, aggressive rider, most likely from a long-range move, although the same type of rider would be favored if the peloton mops up the early breakaway as well. Regardless, as with any breakaway-friendly stage, this one will be very hard to predict.

Stefano Pirazzi was not in the breakaway on Stage 7 or Stage 8. It’s hard to imagine he won’t try to be in the early move here. He’s not the best climber in the race, and he isn’t the punchiest finisher, but he’s terrific on long, hilly days, and he finds an extra gear when he’s up the road. With a Giro KOM jersey and a Giro stage win in his palmarès, he knows how to ride on this kind of parcours, and if he can get into the breakaway, he will be extremely hard to beat.

Diego Ulissi already has a stage win in the race, and he’ll be looking for another here. He won’t be afraid to get into the breakaway, and if he’s at the lead group at the finish, he’ll be among the top favorites no matter who he’s with.

Philippe Gilbert doesn’t have any stage wins yet, but he has similar abilities on the short, steep climbs, and he’s been aggressive trying to get up the road so far in this race. A dropped chain ruined his chances on Stage 7, so he’ll have his eyes open for another chance on this profile that suits his punchy skillset. Simon Gerrans, 3rd on Stage 7, made his bones earlier in his career as a breakaway specialist, and although he may be better known for his killer instinct in reduced bunch sprints these days, he has the added dimension of being capable of winning from a far on a stage like this. Teammate Simon Clarke has already spent plenty of time in the breaks and will like the profile too.

Sylvain Chavanel, Edoardo Zardini, Adam Hansen, Beñat Intxausti, Simon Geschke, Carlos Betancur, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Darwin Atapuma, Ryder Hesjedal, and Esteban Chaves (now way behind on GC) are other potential protagonists who could get the chance to go from afar.

Giovanni Visconti is a special case deserving of his own paragraph. From the profile alone I might name him the top favorite for Stage 9, but when weighing his chances one must add a rather rare variable to the equation: he’s only 1:16 down on GC. It’s hard to tell whether the GC favorites will let him get up the road. Even if he misses the early break he’ll still have a chance from the pack, as he combines excellent climbing legs with a nice kick, but it’s a major question mark whether he’ll be given any room on this stage.

Of the riders less likely to be given any room to roam, in-form Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa are obvious choices with a steep late climb, as is Alberto Contador. Rigoberto Urán looks stronger than he did earlier on in the race and he sports a strong sprint if it comes to that. Damiano Caruso is also quick to the line.

And of course, keep an eye out for versatile fast-finishers Fabio Felline, Juan José Lobato, and Michael Matthews—all three could have a chance on Stage 9 depending on the way things play out.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Stefano Pirazzi | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Philippe Gilbert

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. Stage 9 is followed by a rest day, so check back on Monday for the preview of the next stage. In the meantime, keep an eye out for the next episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 16, 2015