Tag: Stage 9

Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Carboneras de Guadazaón › Aramón Valdelinares – 185 km

After Nacer Bouhanni’s bunch sprint victory in Stage 8, the Vuelta heads North and the road gets mountainous. Stage 9 opens with a short downhill and then a long stretch on a slight incline. Roughly 50 kilometers into the day the incline abates for a fast downhill, and then the peloton will take on another long false flat before they reach the foot of the first categorized ascent. The Puerto de Cabigordo is quite a long Cat. 3, 18 kilometers in total, at an average gradient of 3.8%. From the top it’s 36 kilometers of mostly downhill roads to the two-part stage finale: the 11.5 kilometer, 4.2% average grade Alto de San Rafael, and the 8 kilometer, 6.6% average grade Aramón Valdelinares climb that follows almost immediately after. There are only 5.5 kilometers of descent between the two, so it will feel much more like one harsh climb with a quick respite in the middle than two separate tests. Near the very top of the final climb, at the end of a steeper stretch, things do flatten out a bit, opening the stage up for a possible sprint between survivors if a group reaches the line.

A breakaway will have a decent shot at this stage, with plenty of ups and downs after the midway point of the route to make controlling the race hard. However, it’s the day before a rest day, the GC is very tight, and there are bonus seconds on the line, meaning that there is a strong chance that a lot of riders in the pack will want to go full gas. For a long-range attacker to maintain any advantage over the final climb, a wealth of climbing talent will be necessary.

Stage 6 offered the first indications of who is on form and who isn’t in this race, and most of the riders who delivered on that final climb should be in the mix again here. Chris Froome will be a top favorite if this contest comes down to a battle among the GC contenders. He has been sharp in this Vuelta a España, and moreso than the very steep 4.6 km test that decided Stage 6, the final uphill drag that awaits on Stage 9 is much more Froome’s style. With Mikel Nieve as a top-notch lieutenant, Froome will look to take an advantage over his rivals here.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde put in a brilliant performance on Stage 6, but this will be a different sort of challenge. Climbs that require an explosive kick suit him perfectly, but over a longer, more drawn-out uphill ride, his post-Tour form will face a new test. He did do a lot of pulling at the front on the lower slopes of the final climb on Stage 6, suggesting that the engine is running well. If he is with the lead group at the finish, his sprint will make him hard to beat. Teammate Nairo Quintana will find this profile suits his skillset quite well, but he did fade a bit on Stage 6 and it’s a bit of a question mark whether the form is where it needs to be just yet. If he has gotten that little bit stronger over the past few days, this will be a nice opportunity for him to get ahead on GC.

Alberto Contador looked quite recovered from his leg injury on Stage 6, and this is an excellent profile for him if he is indeed returning to full strength. This is a longer test, which will offer a better opportunity to gauge his fitness. If it’s all there, he should be right in the mix for stage victory.

Joaquim Rodriguez has looked strong in this race but his performance on a sixth stage that seemed to suit him perfectly left a bit to be desired. He’ll have another shot at landing a good result here, with Daniel Moreno as a strong second.

Astana’s Fabio Aru and OGE’s Johan Esteban Chaves were 6th and 7th, respectively, on Stage 6, and this final uphill test will be a good opportunity for both uphill specialists to get involved in the battle for stage glory.

Daniel Martin definitely underwhelmed on Stage 6, but with that one exception he has looked strong recently, and this will be another chance to get it right. His sprint has been particularly on point, and if he can manage to stick with the lead group until the final kilometer he’ll have a shot in the flatter finish. Rigoberto Uran also struggled on the Cumbres Verdes climb, but typically, this long climb would suit him, and he’s not a bad post-climb sprinter either.

Cofidis’s Dani Navarro outperformed expectations on the Alto Cumbres Verdes and will be an outsider for victory here on Stage 9 if the GC men are indeed fighting for the day’s victory. Belkin has a powerful trio in Laurens Ten Dam, Robert Gesink, and Wilco Kelderman. Gesink and Kelderman in particular have strong finishing kicks if they can manage to stick with the leaders here. Having such strong team support will help. Sergio Pardilla, Warren Barguil, Samuel Sanchez, and Damiano Caruso are others who could be in the mix on Stage 9 if the General Classification riders make up the lead group on the road when the day nears its conclusion.

Thibaut Pinot and Julian Arredondo are both in the Vuelta a España targeting mountain stage victories, both are well-suited to this profile, and both would be allowed off the front if they decided to go for a long one here, but as of yet form is still a question mark for both as well. Ryder Hesjedal looked strong on Stage 7 before his crash, and could be a candidate for stage honors if he can get into the breakaway again here on Stage 9. Hesjedal’s teammate Andrew Talansky, Alessandro De Marchi, Damiano Caruso, George Bennett, Kenny Elissonde, Cadel Evans, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Winner Anacona, Louis Meintjes, Adam Yates, David Arroyo, and Amets Txurruka are others who could have a shot in a long-range strike.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! With a rest day on tap after Stage 9, the next preview will be up on Monday, so stay tuned for more. Also, be sure to check out the preview of the upcoming GP Ouest-France in Plouay, as well as VeloHuman’s recent conversations with two likely protagonists of that race, Giacomo Nizzolo of Trek Factory Racing and Ben Swift of Team Sky.

-Dane Cash

August 30, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Gérardmer › Mulhouse – 170 km

With the peloton content to give the morning breakaway its chance at success, Blel Kadri of AG2R took victory on Stage 8 after a long day out front. Stage 9, the Tour’s second stage in the hilly Vosges region of France, is very likely to set up another breakaway victory. A constant barrage of climbs awaits from the very beginning of the day, with six categorized ascents in the first 127 kilometers. The vertical gain will add up as the journey wears on, with the penultimate categorized climb of 10.8 kilometers at 5.4% serving as a particularly challenging test that could see action among the General Classification contenders. After a long descent from Grand Ballon, there are approximately 20 kilometers of flat to close out the stage.

Stage 9 has the undulating profile that breakaway specialists love to see. Even if the strong teams in the race feel inclined to keep the break on a short leash, they will have a difficult time controlling things as the road constantly alternates between ups and downs. The peloton will hit the foot of a tough Category 2 climb only 3 kilometers into the day, and from there it’s going to be a fierce battle to get into the morning breakaway, given the likelihood of long-distance success. It’s never a certainty that the morning break will survive even on a day like this, and if things do come come together as the stage nears its conclusion there are a few riders who stand out as favorites from the pack, but it seems more likely that the winner of Stage 9 will come from a long-range move.

As with any breakaway-friendly stage, it will be extremely difficult to predict which riders will make it into the successful move. The likeliest protagonists for Stage 9 will be those opportunists who possess the well-rounded skillset to a handle a long day of uphill challenges and fast descents. A quick finish could come in handy given the flat run-in to the line. A number of talented all-rounders come to mind as possible protagonists.

Jan Bakelants of OPQS has a very versatile skillset, and he is particularly adept at getting into the right moves when he sees a chance for long-range success. He did just that in the Criterium du Dauphine this year, winning the fourth stage after spending the day in a sizeable break. This could be his opportunity to pick up a second career Tour de France victory. He is an underrated climber with a few WorldTour GC Top 10s to his name, but he also has an excellent sprint, which will make him dangerous at this finish. Teammate Matteo Trentin could also look to add to his collection of Tour de France victories here; this is a tough profile, but he’s a surprisingly strong climber, and he showed just how good he is in a sprint with his Stage 7 victory over Peter Sagan. And never count out time trialing machine Tony Martin, who, in addition to being the world’s best solo artist, can also climb surprisingly well.

Orica-GreenEdge always has a variety of options for a day like this. Michael Albasini is a rider capable of handling almost any terrain, and he can also sprint with the very best. He is a proven expert at picking the right early move. That array of skills, combined with the excellent form he is showing right now, makes him a good candidate to try something from afar. Simon Gerrans appears to have recovered from his opening stage crash; should he get into the right move, he will be tough to drop, and deadly in a sprint finale. Simon Clarke, a breakaway specialist who won the King of the Mountains competition in the 2012 Vuelta, is yet another option.

Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, and Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter and Ramunas Navardauskas all share an affinity for the hilly days, and all of them are quick in a reduced sprint; any one of them could be looking to get off the front early on Stage 9.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak has shown an ability to hang with some of the top climbers in the peloton in one-week races, but he is hunting stages in the Tour de France. If he gets into the morning break, his companions off the front could have trouble staying on his wheel when the road goes up. Teammate Joaquim Rodriguez, also hunting stages in the race, deserves a mention as well, though he has not looked to be back to full strength just yet.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon won the Alpe d’Huez stage of the 2013 Tour de France and will be looking for further success this year. He has spent a lot of time at the back of the peloton so far, but perhaps he is just saving energy for one climactic move.

On a stage as breakaway-friendly as this, it’s hard to be confident in any list of potential long-range protagonists that doesn’t include every rider in the race, but since naming almost two hundred names wouldn’t be practical, I’ll mention only a few more riders that I think have the right qualities for success: Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Trek’s Jens Voigt, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, and Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti are always worthy of a mention when a long-range victory seems likely, while Europcar’s Cyril Gautier and Tommy Voeckler, Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin, IAM Cycling’s Sebastien Reichenbach, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo are all strong climbers who could see this as their opportunity for glory. To close out the list, though it’s hard to imagine that any one of them won’t be exhausted after a tough day out front on Stage 8, Simon Yates, Sylvain Chavanel, and Blel Kadri could look to get involved in the break for a second day in a row.

Should the GC contenders decide to put each other under real pressure on the slopes, it is possible that the increase in pace will close down those off the front before the end of the day. If that should happen, the fast finishers still in the pack could be the main beneficiaries in terms of stage-winning glory, as a flat final 20 kilometers will make it hard for any one rider to escape. Some of the aforementioned contenders (those who excel in the sprints) could decide stay in the pack, hoping for this scenario and a chance to battle with the speedier GC types, foremost of whom has to be Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde. Given his impressive finishing kick, he will be a top favorite if this all comes back together before the line. OPQS’s Michal Kwiatkowski may be his only rival in the sprints among the GC contenders, though he struggled on Stage 8, possibly showing signs of fatigue after expending a lot of energy for his and his teammates’ stage ambitions during the first week. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa are also very quick to the line. Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, and Pierre Rolland don’t have the same closing speed and probably wouldn’t be in the mix in a sprint finish, but they could try to get up and over the final climb ahead of their rivals and then try to maintain a gap to the end.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan gets a final mention all to himself. A lot of things would have to go right for him to contend here, but remember his Stage 3 victory in the 2013 Tour de Suisse; he stuck with Rui Costa, Roman Kreuziger, and Mathias Frank over a Category 1 climb (when even Bauke Mollema and Dan Martin were dropped) to take the win. If there’s one thing Sagan has taught us, it is that he can never be counted out. There are some hard climbs in this profile, but don’t be surprised to see him going for it anyway, even if that means trying to get into the day’s breakaway.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Albasini | 2. Simon Spilak | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 9, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 12, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Lugo > Sestola – 172 km

Another mountain test awaits the peloton on the Giro d’Italia’s ninth stage. The big names will all be at least a bit winded after a tough day: the GC riders put in some high pace on the climbs of Stage 8 to reel in the last survivor of the early breakaway, Julian Arredondo, in the final minutes, and then Diego Ulissi put in an impressive uphill charge for the stage victory. The first 110 kilometers of Sunday’s ninth stage are quite flat, but then the road kicks up leading into a trio of Categorized climbs: a Cat. 3, a Cat. 4, and then a long Cat. 2 ascent to the finish at Sestola. The first two lumps will take a bit out of the riders, but it’s the final climb that will do most of the hurting. 16.5 kilometers in total, it’s an irregular ascent that starts out with 8.5 km at a little under 5%, then jumps up to almost 9% (with a section of 13%) for 4 kilometers or so, and then eases off to 4.5% over the final few kilometers. The long first section, even at a less-than-fearsome gradient, will be a challenge after the peloton has already been riding skyward for so long. Whoever is at the front, the strongest climbers among the group should be able to hang on, but the attacks could come fast and furious in the very steep section that follows. If a lead group of riders makes it through to the gentler gradients near the top, a strong sprint will be useful in taking the day.

With so many of them hoping to pick up bonus seconds at the finish line, the GC riders made the effort to keep the break in check on Stage 8. There will certainly be opportunists who try to get ahead on Stage 9, but I’m not sure the peloton is feeling very generous at this point in the race. What’s more, some of the likeliest names for a breakaway success were very active in a tough Stage 8 and they’ll have a lot of recovering to do if they want to make a successful jump off the front in Sunday’s contest.

The irregular final climb makes this one tough to call even if the day’s breakers are swallowed up: a pure climber could take advantage of the brutal midsection on the slope and try for a solo move, but the GC strongmen have been very attentive so far about marshaling even the late attacks from the peloton. That could leave the stage open to a fast finish from a reduced bunch.

I think Stage 8 winner Diego Ulissi is in an excellent position to pick up a third win here. It’s not a particularly long stage, and the final climb provides opportunities both for a jump from the pack or a sprint victory. Ulissi is strong in either scenario, making him my top favorite. I do think he is a bit vulnerable if Movistar or AG2R really decide to put the hammer down for sustained periods in the steeper sections, but he’s been very impressive on the tough climbs so far.

Rigoberto Uran is also strong contender for a number of scenarios: he’s got the elite uphill ability to match any attacks that might come or even make them on his own, and he’s also got the turn of speed for a sprint finish. New pink jersey wearer Cadel Evans is another: he hasn’t shown many signs of weakness on the climbs yet, and on lesser gradients he’s one of the fastest finishers of the GC riders. BMC’s team support in the mountains has been surprising so far, with Steve Morabito doing some amazing work for his leader on Stage 8. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman has ridden himself into this conversation with some very strong finishes lately; this time last year I viewed him as a strong time trialist who could hold his own on the climbs, but suddenly he looks like a top climber who can be explosive at the line as well.

Nairo Quintana is an obvious choice for any stage that ends with 16.5 uphill kilometers, but the grade becomes much less challenging near the top, which doesn’t favor his style and will probably require a long distance move for him to stay away. The same is true for Domenico Pozzovivo. Still, either rider could launch from afar on the steeper gradient, and both have strong teams to help whittle down the group as the going gets tough. Pozzovivo’s AG2R squad, in particular, has been sterling. They were quite prominent at the head of the pack on the climbs of Stage 8.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo would be a good pick to get aggressive on this profile but after such a strong performance on Stage 8, I’m not sure he’ll have the energy to pull off another. The same is true for his breakaway companion Stefano Pirazzi and for the rider who made a dash of his own late on the road up to Montecopiolo, Europcar’s Pierre Rolland.

For some outsiders among the GC guys: Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal has done a nice job to pick up the slack in the absence of Dan Martin and he can put in a nice turn of uphill speed. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka has been climbing very well. Astana’s Fabio Aru has really lived up to the hype so far, which is crucial now that Michele Scarponi has fallen off the pace. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovksi has taken his game to the next level this season and is climbing amazingly right now.

Of the riders that might be allowed to jump ahead, Daniel Moreno has to be the biggest name for me on this profile. He has the perfect skillset for the stage, and he’s too far down on GC to be a threat in the pink jersey contest. Also on the list of strong would-be GC riders who have fallen off the pace are Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, Astana’s Michele Scarponi and Mikel Landa, and Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Damiano Cunego (who excels at this sort of finish). Other riders who might find success in the right move include Lotto Belisol’s Tim Wellens and Adam Hansen, OGE’s Pieter Weening, Colombia’s Fabio Duarte and Miguel Rubiano, Neri Sottoli’s Matteo Rabottini and Mauro Finetto, and Bardiani’s Enrico Battaglin and Edoardo Zardini.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Cadel Evans | 3. Rigoberto Uran

After Stage 9, the peloton gets to enjoy a rest day. The preview of Tuesday’s Stage 10 will be up on Monday. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

May 17, 2014