All-rounder Roundup
Vincenzo Nibali and a tri of Sky stars (Sergio Henao, Rigoberto Uran, and Bradley Wiggins) are all returning to action at this week’s Tour de Pologne. They’ll be facing stiff competition for a rules-overhauled race: teams are made up of only six riders this time around, and there are time bonuses, not only for finish lines, but also at intermediate points in each stage. The rules will favor aggressive riding. However, any surprise contenders who manage to take advantage of the time bonuses will have to prove they belong with a strong performance in the final day’s not-too-hilly 37 kilometer time trial. With so much incentive for attacking, a likelihood of major leaderboard changes on the last day, and not a single flat day in the race, the 2013 Tour de Pologne promises excitement.
If he’s targetting the race and has remained on form, Nibali is a major favorite here; however, these are non neglibigle ifs. Nibali has been on fire all year and he will be prepping for the upcoming Vuelta a España. On the one hand, he won’t have many other chances to get back into gear; on the other hand, he took last year’s Dauphine easy before the subsequent Tour de France, and he took the previous year’s Tour de Pologne easy before the ensuing Vuelta a España. With a summit finish on day 1, we’ll know soon whether he is targetting this race, but until then, it’s hard to say. The way his year is going, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him gunning for it here, and if he isn’t at his sharpest on day 1, I dont’ think it will take long. His teammate Tanel Kangert is probably less of a question mark. The Estonian all-rounder was a key ally in the Giro, where he showed excellent form as Nibali’s top lieutenant. Then, he managed a 6th place at the Tour de Suisse among the impressive company of Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema, and Roman Kreuziger. With a time trial on the last day, Kangert has a great shot at this Tour de Pologne, and I think the team would be glad to support him if he does well in the first few days.
Team Sky brings three potential winners to the starting line (which is actually in Italy), but I don’t see all of them pushing for the victory. Sergio Henao looks to have the team’s support. He was third in last year’s edition, and this year has been third in Pais Vasco and second in La Fleche Wallonne. He seemed to fade a bit in the Giro, but he has had plenty of time to recover and as an aggressive rider with a strong time trial, he is well-suited to this year’s Tour de Pologne. Because I don’t doubt that he will be targetting the win, he’d be the rider I’d be most comfortable putting money on to make the podium. Bradley Wiggins has been in the news mostly as a footnote to Froome’s story this year. If he has given this race his full attention, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a decent early showing, steady improvement, and a strong time trial to finish the race, though I doubt he’ll mount a serious challenge for the overall victory. Rigoberto Uran is here, and likely will want to get back into form for the upcoming Vuelta, where he will again take on Vincenzo Nibali. I don’t know that I see Uran putting too much thought into this as anything other than a cometitive training exercise. Still, it’s impossible to ignore the guy who took 2nd at the Giro when so many of the other big contenders have also taken plenty of time off. Sky isn’t a team to rest on its laurels, and if any of their options falters, another will be there to pick up the slack (see: d’Italia, Giro).
Rafal Majka, of home nation Poland, notched a 7th place at this year’s Giro, and he’ll have the podium in mind. Luis Leon Sanchez, an aggressive rider and a strong time trialist, is on a strong Belkin squad that also includes Stef Clement and Steven Kruijswijk. Sanchez doesn’t have many results to prove his form this year, but he podiumed in both the time trial and the road race in Spain’s national championships this year, which should put to bed any concerns. Simon Spilak was only so-so at the Tour de Suisse in June, but he’s had a good stage-racing 2013, placing 2nd to go with a stage win in Romandie, 4th in Pais Vasco, and 6th in Catalunya. Mathias Frank looks like BMC’s biggest threat, and he’s coming off back-to-back stage wins in the Tour of Austria. It’s hard to see him beating out the really marquee names here, especially with that final time trial, but a top 10 is certainly within reach.
Stagehunters
The 2013 Tour de Pologne was not designed with stagehunters in mind, and therefore, this section will be more of a stub. Perhaps hilly stages 3 and 4 will go to a sprinter, but otherwise, the rest of Pologne’s seven stages will likely be contested by the overall favorites, especially with the immense time bonuses on the line, which could limit the opportunities of the pure breakaway specialists to get free of the all-rounders looking for chances to pick up bonus seconds. As such, the race is nearly bereft of pure sprinters. Watch out for Thor Hushovd, Ben Swift, Francisco Ventoso, Mark Renshaw, and Luka Mezgec in the stages that end in bunch sprints, though they will be contending with the heavy hitters looking for bonuses. The individual time trial on stage 7 has drawn a few TT specialists as well. Fabian Cancellara and Taylor Phinney will face off with the GC men (some very good TTists there) on the final stage, and they could conceivaly make a run at the aforementioned medium mountain stage finishes, too.
Predictions
Winner
Sergio Henao
Podium
Vincenzo Nibali, Tanel Kangert
Other Strong Contenders
Bradley Wiggins, Luis Leon Sanchez, Simon Spilak, Rafal Majka, Rigoberto Uran
Stages
Stage 1: Rovereto > Madonna di Capiglio | 184.5km | Summit Finish
Stage 2: Val di Sole > Val di Fassa | 206.5km | Summit Finish
Stage 3: Krakow > Rzeszow | 226km | Medium Mountains
Stage 4: Tarnow > Katowice | 231.5km | Medium Mountains
Stage 5: Nowy Targ > Zakopane | 160.5 | High Mountains
Stage 6: Bukovina Terma Hotel Spa > Bukowina Tatrzanska | 192km | Medium Mountains
Stage 7: Wieliczka > Krakow | 37km | ITT
-Dane Cash
Photo by mc czoper.