Tag: TDF

Tour de France 2014 Post-race Impressions: Nibali Dominant, Others Ascendant

Now that the 2014 Tour de France is officially in the books, there’s time to draw a few conclusions about what we’ve seen. Three weeks of racing offer enough storylines and takeaways for weeks of analysis, but I’ve distilled my impressions down to a select few major observations.

A Worthy Winner

Vincenzo Nibali did not want this race to be remembered as the Tour de France without Chris Froome and Alberto Contador, and the results he delivered in pursuit of a truly dominant performance were quite impressive. With four stage wins and several other Top 5s, a strong challenge for the polka dot jersey, and a gap of nearly eight minutes to his closest challenger, Nibali was in another universe compared to the competition in the race. It would have been nice to have seen him battling Froome and Contador, and as things stand right now, Froome is still the oddsmakers’ favorite for the 2015 Tour, but Nibali did all the right things to ensure his place in the history books as a worthy maillot jaune.

We always knew that Nibali was a strong climber (one does not win the Vuelta and Giro without elite climbing ability) but he was up for it on every type of uphill challenge on the menu in this Tour, and avoided even one bad day. What’s more, he has developed into a top-notch time trialist, landing 4th in the Stage 20 chrono. And perhaps most importantly for this race, he displayed the sort of bike handling skills and racing savvy necessary to survive three weeks of riding on often rain-soaked and occasionally cobbled roads. There is a lot to be said for his ability to emerge unscathed from a Tour that dashed the hopes of so many other riders.

A Lengthy Injury Report

Speaking of those other riders: as much as Nibali did everything in his power to make this race his own, any rational analysis of this Tour has to include mention of the health issues that plagued so many riders and generated so many headlines. Alberto Contador was on fire this year and now he may not race again in 2014, and Chris Froome looked to be rounding back into shape before his multiple fractures took him out of the Tour. It would have undoubtedly been a very different Tour de France had they been in the mix in the mountains. They weren’t the only riders who suffered race-ending health problems. Mark Cavendish left the Tour on its very first day. Rui Costa was running well in the beginning of the race, but pneumonia hampered him as the Tour went on and ultimately he abandoned his campaign for a Top 10 overall. Andrew Talansky crashed and crashed again early on in the race and was just too banged up to continue riding at the level necessary to hang with the peloton. Andy Schleck suffered a serious knee injury which has put his next several months in doubt.

Others made it to the Champs-Élysées but were noticeably lessened by ailments along the way. Among the big names in this camp were John Degenkolb, whose first several days were hampered by injury, Arnaud Demare, who battled sickness, and Richie Porte, whose tumble out of the GC Top 10 may have been partially due to a chest infection. In short, a number of big names struggled with health issues in this Tour de France. Those riders who did survive and thrive in the race are worth noting, but it’s important to view all of their successes in perspective.

New Generation of Sprinters Here to Stay

With four victories, Marcel Kittel was clearly the best “pure sprinter” in the race. We’ll never know how Mark Cavendish might have fared against the younger Kittel through three weeks of racing, but Kittel continues to assert himself as a dominant force in the top tier of fast men. This is his second straight year of four wins, but remember, he’s only 26! Alexander Kristoff, with a pair of stage wins, is planting his flag as a sprinting force as well, especially in the bunch gallops that follow long and/or rainy days. Peter Sagan is known as the rider to beat on the hilly days that end in reduced sprints, but Kristoff has carved out a niche of his own: he’s not as strong a climber as Sagan, but even flatter stages, if lengthy enough (and especially when wet) can wear out the other fast men, and it is in those scenarios that Alexander Kristoff shines brightest. Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel were both in the mix on Stage 15, but Kristoff won anyway, much as he won the sprint finale of this year’s Milano-Sanremo despite the presence of Mark Cavendish.

Peter Sagan may not have won a stage in this year’s Tour, but the nine Top 5 stage finishes that put him into the green jersey are undeniably impressive. It seems likely that with a stronger team, he’ll be able to focus more on winning and less on chasing down late moves; the question of “Where will Sagan land?” will be the biggest story of transfer season.

Several other young non-winners were, nonetheless, strong performers on a number of stages as well. 22-year-old Bryan Coquard was always in the mix in the sprints, and 22-year-old Arnaud Demare and 25-year-old John Degenkolb delivered some nice results despite nagging ailments.

A French Resurgence

The 2014 Tour de France was a wonderful return to prominence for French cycling. Jean-Christophe Peraud, who has landed several impressive results in stage races in his career, put in a next-level performance to reach 2nd overall in cycling’s biggest event. He got stronger as the Tour went on, and benefitted from a top-notch team that also included 6th place finisher Romain Bardet, just 23 years old. A climbing specialist with serious talent and a high ceiling, Bardet now has a Top 10 in the Tour and in Liege-Bastogne-Liege on his 2014 resume (to go with several other nice results), and he should continue to develop as an uphill force.

Thibaut Pinot finally took that step up that many expected after his 10th overall and stage victory in the 2012 Tour; a podium position in the Tour de France (ahead of Grand Tour winner Alejandro Valverde) will do wonders for his confidence. He seems to have gotten over his fear of descending, which was a major drawback to his game, but he developed into a much more well-rounded rider in other ways too, now seemingly capable of putting in a strong time trial and several straight good days in the mountains. He should only get stronger over the next few years.

The GC riders weren’t the whole story for the French revival either. Consummate breakaway specialist Blel Kadri took a very long stage win in Gerardmer, and versatile Tony Gallopin spent time in the yellow jersey and later escaped Peter Sagan and a chasing pack to win Stage 11. He took an impressive victory in San Sebastian last year and continues to prove his wide array of talents that include climbing, soloing, and sprinting.

Deserving Team Leaders

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen recovered from a prior injury to race in this Tour, and then recovered from an early crash and a single bad day in the Pyrenees to land 5th on GC when all was said and done. 2013 was a rough year for the young American, who, despite winning both the Tour of California and the USA Pro Challenge, looked to have taken a step back as a Grand Tour rider in that year’s edition of La Grand Boucle. With Cadel Evans showing signs of slowing down, however, BMC backed van Garderen completely in this year’s Tour, and by consistently hanging with with the GC Top 10 types and then delivering a very strong time trial performance in the penultimate stage, van Garderen proved that he is back on track as a GC contender. He’s still just 25.

Not far behind van Garderen on the GC leaderboard was Leopold Konig. Konig took a stage and 9th overall in the 2013 Vuelta, but 2014 hadn’t been going smoothly for the young Czech climber, who was slated for his first run at being a team leader in the Tour de France. A knee injury hampered his early season campaign and left him unable to prepare as well as he would have liked for this race. He overcame those obstacles and looked strong in the second and third week of the Tour, climbing to 9th on GC before the time trial on Stage 20. He proceeded to deliver the chrono of his life and jumped two more placings to finish 7th overall. It shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as he has been delivering impressive time trial results somewhat under the radar over the last two years, but few expected him to land 5th in the ITT. If he can continue to show that sort of abiltiy against the clock, he will be a rider to watch in Grand Tours for years to come.

Looking Ahead

The last day of the Tour de France is not the last day of the cycling season! The Clasica de San Sebastian, a one-day race with a hilly profile designed to thrill, is less than a week away, with the Tour de Pologne and Eneco Tour soon after. Stay tuned for more previews, analysis, and rider interviews!

-Dane Cash

Photos by Adam Bowie, Sum_of_Marc, and Photigule.

July 28, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20 (ITT): Bergerac › Périgueux – 54 km

Following the victory of Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas on Stage 19, there are only two days of racing left in the 2014 Tour de France. Stage 20 is the Tour’s only time trial. A chrono in the penultimate stage of the race might have been an epic final battle for the yellow jersey, but Vincenzo Nibali has that pretty much wrapped up. The remaining steps on the podium, however, are still in play, and a fierce fight will rage between three riders for those two spots. Stage honors are obviously up for grabs as well.

At 54 kilometers, this is quite a long time trial. The stage has a rolling profile from start to finish, but there are no categorized climbs on the docket; these are not challenging ascents, and they won’t offer much solace to the climbing specialists. The intermittent descents will be taken at pretty high speed, but the route is not terribly technical, which most of the riders will appreciate given a possibility for a bit of rain.

It’s the sort of time trial that favors the high-endurance riders, and one stands head and shoulders above the rest in this race. Reigning ITT World Champ Tony Martin will be the big favorite for the stage. He’s obviously a massive talent, but he’s also in stellar shape right now. On this long course, one tailored towards the real power specialists, it would be a big surprise for anyone to outmatch the German on Stage 20.

Tom Dumoulin is a great young talent, yet another rising star on the Giant-Shimano roster. The 2014 Dutch National Champion can handle a roller or two, making this a nice route for him. He was 2nd to Tony Martin in both time trials in this year’s Tour de Suisse. This chrono is a bit longer than those in which he’s been most successful in the past, but in the absence of many other top specialists against the clock, he’s a contender behind the heavy favorite, Tony Martin.

It’s been some time since Tejay van Garderen has put in a truly stellar time trial, but this has typically been a strong suit of his, and he looks to be on good form now. He should be able to land a top result.

Jean-Christophe Peraud has always been great against the clock, and in the shape he’s in at the moment, he will be another favorite among the GC contenders. Crashing during a rainy time trial ruined his 2013 Tour campaign; hopefully he can overcome that challenge this year.

Vincenzo Nibali has had a lot of success in time trials recently, and the way he’s been riding in this Tour, he’s likely to continue that run of great results. It’s a nice course for him, with a few hills and a chance to shine on the descents. He has shown a desire to assert his dominance at every possible opportunity in the Tour de France, and I don’t think he’ll make an exception on Stage 20.

Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS is not showing the sort of form in this Tour that he displayed early in the season, but in a time trial, all he needs is one good hour in the saddle. At his best he’s an elite chrono talent. The profile suits him perfectly, and he won’t mind a bit of rain either.

Sylvain Chavanel of IAM Cycling has not had a great year but he is the reigning French National Champ in the discipline. This stage is a big target for him. OPQS’s Niki Terpstra, OGE’s Svein Tuft and Luke Durbridge, Sky’s Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, and Vasil Kiryienka, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra and Tanel Kangert, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers, NetApp-Endura’s Jan Barta, and Movistar’s Ion Izagirre are others who could put in strong rides on Stage 20.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is not known for his time trialing skills, but he’s been strong against the clock this year, and on this form (and with the benefit of being able to gauge his efforts against almost every other rider, courtesy of starting late in the day) he could surprise some people. Alejandro Valverde, Spain’s National Champ in the ITT, is a good chrono rider, but he can’t afford to underestimate Pinot’s ability if he wants to stand on the podium in Paris.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Tom Dumoulin

There are only two stages left in this year’s Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of both of them, and of every WorldTour race left on the calendar. Also, check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 20.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 25, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Grenoble › Risoul – 177 km

Vincenzo Nibali passed the Tour’s first high-mountain test with flying colors in the thirteenth stage of the race. The yellow jersey wearer and the rest of the peloton will take on another day of serious uphill challenges on Stage 14. At 177 kilometers, the journey from Grenoble to Risoul is not a particularly long one, but the riders will be either charging up steep Alpine slopes or zooming down them all day long. The pack starts climbing up a steady (though uncategorized) gradient almost immediately once the racing begins. Things flatten out a bit for the intermediate sprint point, but then the road kicks back up for will seem like an eternity: the Category 1 Col du Lautaret is not all that steep at 3.9%, but 34 km is a very, very long time to spend traveling skyward. When the riders finally reach the top, they will embark on a 30 kilometer descent to the foot of the Col d’Izoard, an HC-rated challenge of 19 km at a 6% average grade. The Col d’Izoard starts out at low gradients, but the second half of the climb is much steeper than the first, and anyone on a bad day is likely to be found out as things get harder after the midway point. From the summit, it’s a high-speed descent to the bottom of the day’s final test, the Cat. 1, 12.6 kilometer climb to Risoul. It’s a steady incline all the way up, but after so many long ascents it’s going to be an exhausting trip to the finish line.

There a quite a few KOM points on offer here in the fourteenth stage of the Tour de France, and with such an up and down profile that will make it difficult for any one team to control the race, the climbing specialists who are out of GC contention will see a golden opportunity to go off the front in search of glory. The GC men, on the other hand, are coming off of a very difficult day of racing, and might be content to let others contest the victory. The morning breakaway has a good chance of going the distance on Stage 14.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez did not get into the Stage 13 break, and when the road started to go up towards the finish, he quickly fell back and took the ascent at his own pace. He should have a bit more energy for Stage 14 than a number of other uphill specialists who poured everything into the Chamrousse climb, and he obviously has more talent than almost anyone else as well. With so many KOM points available here, Purito will likely be very aggressive trying to get ahead, and the early incline will give him an advantage trying to get into the break if he wants to go for this from afar. As difficult as it is to predict which riders will make it out front on a day like this, Joaquim Rodriguez is my top favorite for Stage 14. Teammates Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are other riders to watch.

Continuing in the vein of potential long-distance candidates for success: Mikel Nieve is an excellent climber and a keen opportunist, and he is in terrific shape right now. His team has suddenly found itself out of GC contention after Richie Porte’s very bad day on Stage 13, and now Sky will probably be looking to get something out of this Tour de France with a long-distance strike in the mountains. Geraint Thomas has been climbing quite well, too, and he may be another potential aggressor here.

Tinkoff-Saxo has gone in to full stagehunting mode and they came very close with Rafal Majka on Stage 13. They’ll have another shot at it on Stage 14, and they will be trying to get Majka, Nicolas Roche, or Michael Rogers into the early move. All three of them are strong contenders, and if any one of them makes it into the day’s breakaway, he will be a favorite for stage victory.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon stayed quiet on the road to Chamrousse. The energy he saved there, coupled with a skillset well-suited for this profile, could see him in the mix. Teammate Blel Kadri could also give this a go. Trek’s Frank Schleck and Haimar Zubeldia will be coming off a day of very hard effort, but they look strong at the moment, and they are far enough back in the General Classification that they’ll likely be allowed to slip away. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is just ahead of Zubeldia on GC and could also have an aggressive gameplan in mind for Stage 14, though he isn’t at his best right now following a tough Giro campaign. Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi and Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu are other candidates to try a long-range move.

Leopold Konig of NetApp-Endura looked very strong on Stage 13, coming in 3rd on the day and riding himself into the GC Top 10. He may now be just a bit too close to the GC heavyweights to be given a lot of freedom to get out front, but if he is allowed some space, he’ll be a dangerous contender. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam is in a similar position: a strong ride to the Chamrousse finish line put him within sight of the Top 10 overall, and it’s tough to say whether he’d be allowed off the front if he wants to make a bid for glory on Stage 14. Also hovering around the fringes of the Top 10 is Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS. He looked to be in serious difficulty at the foot of the final climb on Stage 13, but he rode his own steady pace up to the top and ultimately finished only about 4 minutes down. He has already shown a willingness to go on the attack in this race, and he might try again here.

Should the pack ultimately sweep up the day’s early breakers on Stage 14, it’s hard to see past Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali as the top favorite once again. He is simply the strongest climber in the race. With Tanel Kangert, Michele Scarponi, and Jakob Fuglsang (if he is not too badly hurt following a crash) at his side, the shark is unstoppable when the road goes up.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is his closest rival on a stage like this. Should Nibali fail to drop him on the final climb, he has the sprint to cross the line first.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot looks very sharp at the moment and he’ll hope to gain more time on his rival for both the podium and the white jersey, Romain Bardet. There is a lot of descending on the docket on Stage 14, so Pinot’s confidence could be put to the test. Speaking of Bardet, he has been steady throughout this race, as has teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud, and they should continue to be a top-notch pairing on this tough day in the mountains.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen should like the look of the final climb, which favors those who can turn a steady pace. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen van den Broeck have both been improving. A few minutes down on Nibali on GC, any one of this trio might have a bit of freedom to strike for glory on the ascent to Risoul.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3 Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 14, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 18, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Saint-Étienne › Chamrousse – 197.5 km

After a day without any real GC implications (Alexander Kristoff won Stage 12 in a bunch sprint), the yellow jersey fight will heat up again on Stage 13. The Tour’s journey through the Vosges offered plenty of uphill challenges to give an early indication of the climbers’ pecking order, but Stage 13 serves up the first high-altitude test of the race. The 197.5 kilometer day starts with a Cat. 3 climb and then a very long section of relatively flat roads before a tough final 60 kilometers. First, the peloton must take on the Cat. 1 Col de Palaquit, 14.1 km at 6.1%. Compared to what comes next on the profile, it may not look too bad, but this is a real test in its own right that will inject some pain into the legs of even the uphill specialists. After the tough climb and a fast descent, the riders will pass Grenoble and then start the grueling final ascent to Chamrousse, an HC-rated 18.2 kilometer slog at 7.3%. The steepest sections of the climb come early on. Things start to ease up a bit right near the top, but after such a long skyward journey, any group that comes to the foot of the climb is almost certain to be blown apart before it reaches the summit.

If any strong climbers make it into the morning breakaway, they will have a chance of staying away here; with another high mountain stage on tap for Saturday, the peloton may decide to conserve some energy on Stage 13. However, there are flat run-ins to both late climbs where things are likely to get very pacey in the pack as teams try to bring their leaders into the best possible position to start the ascending, and that could start to eat away at any advantage a breakaway might have. Even if those off the front do have some breathing room when they start their uphill journey to Chamrousse, it will still be a big challenge holding the gap all the way to the top.

The Tour’s climbing stars will be the favorites for victory here. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali outclassed everyone on La Planche des Belles Filles last weekend, showing that he is the rider to beat on the steep stuff. With a terrific supporting cast in Jakob Fuglsang, Tanel Kangert, and Michele Scarponi, he has the team to set a strong pace when the road goes up. There are a few potential long-distance protagonists who could take this stage from afar, but if the pack does reel in the early moves as the Chamrousse climb nears, Nibali looks to be the single likeliest victor.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde was not as strong as expected in the steep finale of the Tour’s eigth stage, but he was impressive on Stage 10, rolling in 3rd behind Nibali. He may be getting a bit stronger as the race goes on, and with the uphill ability he has shown in the past, he should be able to contend on this challenging final climb. Like Nibali, he has a strong team to position him well for a vertical charge in the Stage 13 finale.

Sky’s Richie Porte faces a real test here: the long ascents should be a strength, but this is the first time he is taking on an HC-rated Tour de France climb as team leader. If he can stay calm and churn out a steady pace, he could thrive on this slope. Mikel Nieve and Geraint Thomas, both still within the GC Top 15, make terrific allies.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has been very impressive on the climbs so far in this race, and the Stage 13 profile will allow him to put that talent on display again. He will also be pleased that there is not a whole lot of technical desceding on the docket. French compatriots Romain Bardet and Jean-Christophe Peraud of AG2R are also looking very strong, and they make a nice combo for the long climbs.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen has handled the uphill challenges in this race with aplomb. He has developed considerably as a climber in 2014, and this will be an opportunity to put his improved skills to the test. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema struggled with stomach issues when facing some tough climbs earlier in the race, but he should be ready for Stage 13’s challenges. Past performances suggest that he should be able to put in a decent performance on this sort of skyward slog; we’ll see if he’s at the level necessary to succeed right now.

Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa has been suffering from bronchitis, and this will not be a pleasant journey to the top for him. He has a strong team with Chris Horner as a great second, but it will be a lot to ask to stay at the head of affairs for 18.2 very steep kilometers. Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck, who was so strong in the Dauphine, has looked a bit off the pace on the climbs so far, and unless he manages to find an extra gear soon, this could be a tough stage for him as well.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez is the best climber in a select group of riders who are, on the one hand, far enough out of GC contention that they’ll be able to make a long-distance move, and on the other, talented enough to win on these slopes. Purito came very close to success on Stage 10, even after already expending a lot of effort picking up KOM points. Staying out front over the 18.2 kilometer final ascent is a lot to ask, but Rodriguez is one of the strongest climbers in the whole race. There will be a number of KOM points on offer on Saturday’s stage as well, however, which could affect how Purito decides to play Stage 13. His teammates Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are other strong options to go on the offensive from far out.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is far enough back on GC that he could go on the attack without giving too much worry to those near the top of the leaderboard. Post-Giro d’Italia Rolland is not as dangerous as he might be were this his first Grand Tour of the year, but if the pack does not have the motivation to reel in any moves from riders that aren’t in podium contention, Rolland has a chance: he is still one of the best climbers in the Tour.

NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig fell out of GC contention early in this race, but he finished 8th on La Planche des Belles Filles (ahead of Bauke Mollema and a few other top GC men). He could get into a move off the front and put his great uphill talent on display on Stage 13. AG2R’s Christophe Riblon finally showed himself with an attempt to take Stage 10 from the breakaway, and he could look to go for a long one again here. Tinkoff-Saxo has a very dangerous trio of climbing stars in Michael Rogers, Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka, all of whom are now free to hunt stage wins from afar. Others strong-climbing candidates who could look to get out front and hold on for success include Trek’s Frank Schleck and Haimar Zubeldia, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 13, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 17, 2014