Tag: Time Trial

Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Castelrotto › Alpe di Siusi – 10.85km (ITT)

Just in case Stage 14 was not decisive enough for you, Giro organizers planned a critical mountain time trial for the day after the queen stage.

10.85km from start to finish, the stage has an average gradient of a little over 7.2% all told, though the hard climbing only starts after 1.8km. From there it’s pretty steady the rest of the way up.

Sunday’s stage is all about who can generate the most watts per kilogram at this point in the race, following an extremely difficult Saturday. A few days ago I thought this would be a pretty straightforward stage to predict, but given the way things played out in Stage 14, I’m not so sure now.

Vincenzo Nibali is a cautious favorite pick. At peak form, Nibali would be the clear top contender—but he looked to be just a bit off his best Saturday. I still think he combines TT ability with climbing legs better than anyone else on the startlist, but it could be closer than expected.

Steven Kruijswijk has forced himself into the conversation here. He doesn’t get a lot of credit as a time trialist, but he was a very impressive 5th in last year’s 14th stage of the Giro. Combined with the way he’s been going uphill, he’s a real contender for the stage win here.

So is Esteban Chaves. TTs aren’t really his thing but he’s not the worst rider against the clock, and it shouldn’t matter too much with the gradient of this climb. Chaves is flying in this Giro.

Then there’s Alejandro Valverde. A few days ago I would have thought he’d be in with a shot at the win here but he really struggled in Stage 14. On the other hand, one thing that makes a guy like Valverde a perennial GC contender is his ability to deliver consistently through three weeks. I’m not counting him out after one bad day.

Ilnur Zakarin and Rafal Majka both have a chance on this stage. Majka in particular has done very well in Giro mountain time trials in the past. Rigoberto Urán, Andrey Amador, Bob Jungels, and Primoz Roglic are others who could be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Steven Kruijswijk | 3. Esteban Chaves

May 22, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Radda in Chianti › Greve in Chianti – 40.5km (ITT)

The Giro’s ninth stage is a critical 40.5-kilometer individual time trial with a very intriguing profile. There is a significant net altitude loss on the day, meaning that while there is some climbing to do, the heavier TT specialists should really enjoy this one.

The course has a few technical sections along the way. The main challenge comes in the final third of the stage as the riders take on a climb of about 5km at a little under 4%. From the top, it’s downhill almost all the way to the line.

A few days ago, Tom Dumoulin would have been my heavy favorite for this stage, given the form he showed early in the Giro. I’d still name him as my top favorite, but his less-than-stellar showing on Stage 8 has me a bit concerned that maybe he’s not feeling 100% at the moment. Still, this time trial suits him well and he’s elite against the clock.

Fabian Cancellara is the other top TT specialist on the startlist, and if he weren’t recovering from illness he’d be a sure thing to contend for the stage win. As it stands, he’s definitely still a contender, but again, it’s hard to say just how well he’ll do. The descents do suit him.

Bob Jungels can run hot and cold but when he’s good, he’s good. He could be in the mix. Ilnur Zakarin should be in contention as well. He looks very strong right now. Rigoberto Urán is the other GC contender that I see having a good shot here. He’s been a bit quiet so far in this race, but he has to know that Stage 9 is his big chance to open up a gap to his pink jersey rivals.

Stefan Küng, Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde, Primoz Roglic, Steven Kruijswijk, and Andrey Amador are others to watch in the ITT.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Ilnur Zakarin

May 15, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Apeldoorn › Apeldoorn – 9.8km (ITT)

The 2016 Giro d’Italia opens in the Netherlands with a short, flat time trial. Without any climbs to speak of and good weather in the forecast, the corners will be the only real challenge on the day. Expect the specialists to shine here in the first battle for the pink jersey. In particular, those with top-end speed will like their chances.

Fabian Cancellara and Tom Dumoulin are the two big favorites here, though Cancellara apparently has the flu, which could make this Dumoulin’s to lose. He won’t have many opportunities like this to take a Giro stage win in his home country, and this TT suits him well.

Jos Van Emden is another home rider with a chance. He’s been a bit quiet since his second-place ride in the Tour of Qatar’s stage 2 TT, but he showed at last year’s Eneco Tour TT just how good he can be when things go his way. Bob Jungels, Anton Vorobyev, Mathias Brandle, Jack Bobridge, and Ramunas Narvadauskas are others who could be in the mix.

Keep an eye on Mikel Landa and Esteban Chaves on the day. The time trial mileage in this Giro could be the biggest challenge for both riders, and Stage 1 will be a good opportunity to get an idea of where they are in terms of form against the clock right now before the more critical Stage 9 ITT.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Jos Van Emden.

Be sure to check out my overall race preview over at VeloNews, and don’t miss the Recon Ride’s pre-race show! Giacomo Nizzolo and Jakob Fuglsang both make an appearance in the podcast.

May 6, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Burgos › Burgos – 38.7km (ITT)

For the powerful engines in the Vuelta peloton who have been struggling in the mountains, the Stage 17 time trial, likely to play a pivotal role in deciding the overall winner of the race, is just what the doctor ordered.

38.7 kilometers in full, it’s a time trial that suits the specialists—though perhaps a bit less than a quick glance at the profile would suggest. The first 10km trends generally uphill, with a few steeper stretches. Then it’s a quick downhill, a short roller, and a descent onto a long section of flat.

Around kilometer 30 there is another bump in the road, followed by a climb of about a kilometer at over 6%. Then comes a descent down into a flattish (slightly uphill finish).

While the parcours is far from a high-mountain time trial, it does have a few ups and downs and some technical stretches. We can expect the time trialing heavyweights to go really well, but I do see a few areas that will give the climbers at least something to be happy about.

Tom Dumoulin, currently 4th overall, is the best time trialist in the race by a significant margin, and he has everything on the line, as he is just 2 minutes away from the race lead. At his best, he would dominate this course, which suits him very well. However, an ITT after two weeks of hard racing and hanging with the GC favorites is uncharted territory for Dumoulin. I still see him as the favorite, and I expect him to do very well, but he might not perform quite to his peak ability after such a tough Vuelta.

Vasil Kiryienka will likely be his biggest challenger for the stage. Kiryienka has been excellent this year, and he has already taken a big Grand Tour time trial victory this season in the Giro. Unlike Dumoulin, he has not needed to go quite as deep in the Vuelta. He’s got strong climbing legs and won’t be troubled by the rollers on the course. In short, I think he will give Dumoulin a run for his money for Stage 17.

Luis León Sánchez was just 12 seconds behind Kiryienka in the that Giro TT. He’s on great form right now and will have a rare chance to do his own thing here. Like the aforementioned pair, he’s also handy on rolling climbs and should go very well on the parcours.

Nelson Oliveira is on great form right now and is strong in the discipline. He could contend for the stage win. Jurgen Van Den Broeck has turned himself into a TT specialist at this point in his career and has put up several nice results recently. Stephen Cummings, Maciej Bodnar, Niki Terpstra, Sylvain Chavanel, and Jerome Coppel are others to watch for on Stage 17.

I think Joaquím Rodríguez will do a bit better than most people seem to expect—despite his reputation for losing big in the ITTs, he’s become a respectable rider against the clock over the past few years. Unfortunately for Purito, I also think we will see Fabio Aru putting up a strong ride. Astana knows how important the time trials are and even though Aru is far from a chrono specialist, he’s got a strong engine and will be fresher than most riders after several tough days in the mountains. In the same vein, I see Rafal Majka doing particularly well on Stage 17. He’s shown ability against the clock even on flatter TTs in the past, and he’s got a great chance at podium in this Vuelta if he can put it all together here.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Vasil Kiryienka | 3. Luis León Sánchez

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 17.

September 9, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1 (ITT): Utrecht > Utrecht – 13.8km

The Tour de France gets underway with a flat 13.8-kilometer time trial in Utrecht. It’s a little longer than a traditional prologue, but still short enough that those riders with a bit of pop could enjoy a chance to churn out a very high tempo for the duration of the trip along the course. There are no hills to speak of, though there are several corners that will require some deft bike handling.

Tony Martin is the best pure time trialing talent in the race, and an excellent bike handler. He’d probably prefer something a bit longer to put his big engine on display, but this is still a good course for him. It’s probably safe to assume that Martin has had his eye on the yellow jersey since the Stage 1 was announced, and when Martin focuses his full attention on a time trial, it’s almost impossible to beat him.

Tom Dumoulin will have a chance. His explosiveness should translate favorably on this shorter parcours, and he is, of course, riding in front of a home crowd. He’s had trouble beating Martin head-to-head in the past, but this is an ideal scenario for him to overcome those difficulties.

Fabian Cancellara also has a good shot here on Stage 1. The terrain suits him and he looked strong in the Tour de Suisse time trials. The veteran Classics star knows how to handle pressure and in the spotlight of the Tour’s busy first stage, he should shine.

The stage winner will very likely come from the aforementioned trio of favorites, but there are a few outsiders who could contend . Adriano Malori has been knocking at the door of the elite time trialing club for a little while now. Short courses tend to suit him. Watch out for the Italian Movistar rider. Michal Kwiatkowski, Geraint Thomas, Rohan Dennis, Alex Dowsett, Peter Sagan, and Greg Van Avermaet are others with a chance at Stage 1 success and the yellow jersey on offer as well.

VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Tom Dumoulin | 3. Fabian Cancellara

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 1. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 3, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Treviso › Valdobbiadene – 59.4kkm

Sacha Modolo’s victory on Stage 13 was not too surprising, but the carnage near the finish that dropped Alberto Contador (slightly) and Richie Porte (significantly) down the GC leaderboard was. Two weeks into the Giro d’Italia, there have been several days with major GC consequences that didn’t seem likely to have much of an effect on the overall race at first. Nevertheless, Stage 14 could shake things up more than any of those days have so far.

At nearly 60km, this is one long race against the clock. The profile could be split into two halves. The first 30km of the stage are quite flat, and will favor the larger engines in the peloton. The second half of the stage is a bit hillier. Things start off with a roughly 5km climb at an approximately 4% average gradient. Then comes a descent and another flat stretch, before another ascent into a rolling final few kilometers.

The sheer length of this parcours, and the lack of any serious climbs (especially in the first 30km) will put the ITT powerhouses in their element.

The Giro GC conversation happens to have several top all-rounders with elite time trialing skills who should thrive even on the flats, and in the absence of chrono specialists at the level of a Tony Martin or a Tom Domoulin, this stage is likely to come down to the pink jersey hunters.

Richie Porte is certainly among the favorites, given his excellent time trialing skills. Two days ago, I would have named him the heavy favorite here. However, both his morale and his body (his knee, in particular) appeared to be affected by the Stage 13 crash. 60km is a long time to be in a very specific position, and if Porte isn’t feeling great, or isn’t feeling particularly motivated now that he’s so far off track in the GC conversation, he could easily falter. It’s very hard to tell just how he’ll do. If he’s at or near his best in spite of his recent troubles, he should win.

Rigoberto Urán won last year’s Giro time trial, and he’s developed into an impressive chrono talent over the last few years. However, his form has not been at quite the level he probably hoped for in this race, and he recently crashed. Just as is the case with Porte, it’s hard to say how that will affect his chances, but judging from the riding he’s done since going down on Stage 12, I don’t think his fall had that much of an effect on him, and I do think that he’s been completely focused on this opportunity since the start of the race, so I’d imagine he’ll do pretty well here in Stage 14.

Alberto Contador has been a strong time trialist for a while, but he’s been stellar in the ITTs over the past 12 months or so. It’s an area of his game that may have been overlooked. In multiple recent face-offs that he’s had with Chris Froome in which most expected the Briton to put time into the Spaniard, Contador has come out on top. Unfortunately from a prognostication standpoint, Contador has taken a physical beating in this Giro, crashing multiple times. If he can’t position himself comfortably on the bike for the long period of time required in this ITT, he could suffer. Contador’s a fighter, though, and he can ride through pain better than most, so I think we can expect a strong ride.

Fabio Aru will probably lose time to a few of his rivals here, but his teammate Dario Cataldo almost certainly will not, and could challenge for the Stage 14 win, as might Tanel Kangert. Richie Porte’s Sky teammates Leopold König and Vasil Kiryienka, Alberto Contador’s Tinkoff-Saxo teammate Michael Rogers, Movistar’s Andrey Amador, Ion Izagirre, and Giovanni Visconti, Kristoff Vandewalle, Luke Durbridge, Patrick Gretsch, Sylvain Chavanel, and Ilnur Zakarin are other riders to watch in this very long race against the clock.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Richie Porte | 2. Rigoberto Urán | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 14 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 23, 2015