Tag: Tips

Tour de France 2015: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Mende › Valence – 183km

Sandwiched between two days with relatively difficult late climbs, the 15th stage of the Tour de France has a profile that could give the sprinters one last chance at stage glory before Paris—but things will likely be harder than they look on the road to Valence.

The riders will be climbing immediately off the startline, with an uncategorized uphill drag into the Cat. 3 Côte de Badaroux on tap right away. Expect some of the more aggressive climbing specialists to attempt an early break on the way up. From the top it’s a relatively flat road to the next categorized climb almost 60 kilometers later, but said Cat. 4, the Col du Bez, is immediately followed by another, the Col de la Croix de Bauzon. Then comes a very long descent down to the intermediate sprint at Aubenas.

From there, it’s only a short way to the foot of the final climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Col de l’Escrinet, 7.9km long at a 5.8% average gradient. From the top of the climb it’s another long descent, about 25 kilometers, into a flat and relatively straightforward final 30 kilometers.

The climbs are not especially hard, and the long flat stretch into the finish line will give the sprinters hope for a bunch kick, but they’ll have to reel in the breakaway first. The race is about to enter a challenging stretch of Alpine stages, and the peloton might be hoping to make it through Stage 15 without too much trouble on the way to one more medium mountain stage and then a much-needed rest day before the GC action picks up.

If the break is caught, it will be thanks to a few dedicated sprinters’ teams hoping for a last shot at stage glory before the Alps, and the chase will have likely taken something out of the pack, which could give a boost to the stronger, more versatile quick men despite the pan-flat finish. The Col de l’Escrinet is not an easy bump in the road either, and it could further wear down some of the heavier quick men.

Etixx-QuickStep will have the option of riding hard to keep Mark Cavendish in play for a sprint, or riding less hard to get the more versatile Matteo Trentin into position for a bunch kick. Cav is probably the first option, and if he’s in the lead group in the final few kilometers, he will be hard to beat, but that’s far from a given. Trentin is a strong alternative.

André Greipel and Cavendish seem pretty closely matched right now, but I think Cavendish still has the speed to win all things being equal (though the disparity in positioning in the first two bunch sprints stages in the Tour are good reminders that Tour de France sprints don’t occur in a vacuum). In any case, a lot of things will have to go right for both of them for that to be the scenario that decides the stage.

Peter Sagan has come remarkably close to stage victories even on the flattest days so far in this race, thanks to his excellent form at the moment. He’ll have a chance in a big bunch sprint here, but a day spent in the breakaway on Stage 14 and the brutal finishing climb at the end of that stage probably took something out of him. Having to go for every intermediate sprint doesn’t really help. It seems unlikely that he’ll be in the break again, so Sagan, like the other quick men, will probably need to rely on the catch being made to have any shot at victory, and then he’ll need to beat other quick men who may have a bit more in the tank.

John Degenkolb should be in prime position to take advantage of a potential sprint after a moderately challenging day, and a probably tired Peter Sagan. He’s quick enough to win sprint finishes as it is, and the parcours and race situation are likely to weigh in his favor. Stage 15 offers a much better chance for Degenkolb to pick up his first career Tour win than the finale in paris will be—though that’s all assuming the break is caught.

Alexander Kristoff has not had quite the same level of success in the 2015 Tour that he had in 2014, but the stage suits his skillset. Arnaud Démare, Davide Cimolai, Tyler Farrar, Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Matthews and Bryan Coquard are others with a chance at success if this comes down to the pack.

Naming potential breakaway candidates for this stage is tough because it’s not quite as difficult a stage as those that have preceded it, or those that are about to follow, lengthening the already long list of riders who could have a shot at taking a win from afar.

Simon Geschke has a fast finishing kick and a knack for getting up the road—he’s come close to big Grand Tour wins in the past and this is an excellent parcours for him.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has not quite lived up to expectations in the past few stages, but his ability to get up the road and his powerful finishing kick make him a good breakaway contender for Stage 15.

The same could be said for Sylvain Chavanel—he has not made much of an impression on this Tour de France but the Stage 15 profile suits him very well, with plenty of space for him to power clear for a solo bid, or potentially hold out for a small group sprint from a breakaway.

Jan Barta, Ryder Hesjedal, Jan Bakelants, Ramunas Navardauskas, Thomas De Gendt, Lars Bak, Michal Kwiatkowski, and Sep Vanmarcke are others to watch out for in a long-range move.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 15.

-Dane Cash

July 18, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Rodez › Mende – 178.5km

Greg Van Avermaet snagged a hilltop victory in the Tour’s 13th stage, and more hills await on Stage 14. The day opens with 44 kilometers of roads that slope gently upward, with a short Cat. 4 climb along the way. Then comes a fast descent into a very long (about 80 kilometers) stretch of flat roads, which could see the peloton taking a relatively leisurely approach after several tough days on the bike. With about 40km to go in the stage, things get bumpy again. First comes the Cat. 2 Côte de Sauveterre, 9km at 6%. After the downhill and then a short flat section comes the Cat. 4 Côte de Chabrits, followed by another downhill into the final climb. The Cat. 2 Côte de la Croix Neuve, 3km at 10.1%, is short but extremely challenging test.

Before the riders reach the Stage 14 finish line in Mende, they’ll have to overcome the steep Côte de la Croix Neuve. Anyone feeling a bit below 100% will be found out quickly on the double-digit gradient.

It’s steep throughout, especially near the midway point. From the top of the climb it’s about 1.5km of flat to the finish, with a sharp right-hander and then a hard left on the way to the line.

Stage 14 will be yet another breakaway-friendly stage—an up-and-down finale and a late climb that is far too hard for the sprinters are typically good ingredients for a successful long-range move. Still, this final climb might even be hard enough to inspire the GC teams to set up a high pace to set up a late battle. If the pack fights it out for the win, only the strongest climbers will be able to survive the Côte de la Croix Neuve to be in the mix for a stage win via either a move on the steep stuff or a very reduced sprint. The last time the Tour finished here, Joaquim Rodríguez, Alberto Contador, and Alexandre Vinokourov were the first three riders across the line. The potential breakaway scenario (which looks to be about a 50/50 proposition) will give the less Alpine-inclined riders a better shot at stage success, but strong climbing legs will still be very important on a final climb with an average gradient over 10%.

Joaquim Rodríguez will be among the top favorites in this explosive finale if he’s in the lead group, and the fact that he’s well behind on GC and now potentially in the hunt for breakaway wins makes him all the more dangerous. The profile of the majority of the stage (the relatively easy first 140 kilometers, that is) isn’t one that stands out as a likely jumping off point for a Purito breakaway, however, so it’s not a given that he’ll get up the road. He’s a favorite, but there are so many other factors at play on this stage besides the puncheur-friendly finish that make it impossible to name anyone a no-doubt contender.

Given his performances so far, Alexis Vuillermoz will be a rider to watch closely on Stage 14. The extreme gradient of the final climb suits him very well, and he’s especially dangerous given his ability to get up the road, as he’s not a GC threat. Teammates Romain Bardet and Jan Bakelants might be hoping to get involved too.

Dan Martin did not perform as well as expected on Stage 13 but he could bounce back for a bid at Stage 14 success. The finale is probably a bit hard for him against the top GC favorites but he’ll have a shot from the break. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal will likely be on the lookout for opportunities to get into the breakaway mix as well.

Pierre Rolland tends to target stages with bumpier profiles throughout for his long-range moves, but a finale with plenty of launching pads for a classic Rolland attack make him impossible to count out. Compatriot and Europcar teammate Thomas Voeckler will also have a shot if he can get into the day’s breakaway.

Michal Kwiatkowski, Adam Yates, Rafael Valls, Jakob Fuglsang, Rafal Majka, and Julián Arredondo are other strong long-range candidates for Stage 14.

Of the riders whose stage hopes rest within the pack, Alejandro Valverde is certainly among the favorites—the steep late climb will drop all the non-elite ascenders from contention, and the flat finish will give Valverde a chance to use his top-notch sprint. His biggest obstacle will be reining in the inevitable attacks from his rivals. This may be only a Cat. 2, but it’s steep enough that it could spur Chris Froome into action—he was very strong on the Mur de Huy and this longer trip up suits him even more. Despite his firm hold on the yellow jersey, Froome has not seemed particularly interested in allowing the other riders at the top of the GC leaderboard opportunities to shorten the gap. Valverde’s teammate Nairo Quintana and the always dangerous Alberto Contador will also be in the mix if this comes down a GC battle.

Geraint Thomas, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Tony Gallopin, and Greg Van Avermaet (who is climbing better than ever) will be hoping to hold on on the steep stuff for a potential reduced sprint on the short section of flat that precedes the finish line. The Côte de Sauveterre is probably too hard for Peter Sagan, but don’t count him out entirely—despite his inability to win a stage so far in the Tour, he’s on great form at the moment.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodríguez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Chris Froome

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 14.

-Dane Cash

July 17, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Muret › Rodez – 198.5km

Joaquim Rodríguez’s Stage 12 win closed out three straight days with late HC-rated climbs, and now the Tour de France transitions to a stretch of slightly less mountainous stages—but that doesn’t mean things will get all that much easier. Stage 13 is a relatively long, hilly day with three categorized climbs (a Cat. 3, a Cat. 4, and a Cat. 4) in the last 70 kilometers. The final official climb comes 30km from the line, but it’s followed by a short uncategorized bump and then a longer one to La Primaube, just 10km from the finish. From there it’s downhill until the final 2.5km, where the road flattens out until 570 meters from the line. Then things kick sharply upward at a 9.6% gradient to the finish. The final drag to the line is not categorized, but it’s the sort of challenge that will serve to dramatically reduce the speed of heavier sprinter-types in the final moments of the stage.

A bumpy parcours late on in the stage and a finale that isn’t all that sprinter-friendly both favor the chances of the early breakaway. A tired peloton, limping along after three brutal days in the Pyrenees, could bid good riddance to the riders up the road. Then again, there aren’t a whole lot of stages for the fast finishers in this race, and that could inspire those teams with more versatile quick men to try to keep this one under control for the uphill sprint at the end of the day. Stage 13 looks to be yet another day where the outcome of the breakaway vs. peloton battle will be extremely tough to predict. In any case, the favorites for success will be punchy finishers with the endurance to still have something in the tank after a long day of racing, with those capable of winning from afar holding an extra advantage over those who will need to stay in the pack to have a shot.

Peter Sagan seems as likely as anyone to win Stage 13, though the nature of the profile makes it hard to call him a “favorite.” The finale is steeper than he’d prefer but the high-gradient stretch is short enough that his impressive finishing kick should outweigh (figuratively) the fact that he’s heavier than the more specialized puncheurs in the race. Sagan is on terrific form at the moment and this stage presents a fine opportunity for him to pick up a victory. He also can’t be ruled out as a possible long-range contender.

This should be an excellent day for Tony Gallopin: hilly with a sting in the tail, but not so mountainous as to bring the GC favorites sailing past on the high gradients. Ignoring other race circumstances, punchy, aggressive Gallopin would look the perfect candidate for a stage win. However, Lotto Soudal may decide that André Greipel has a chance in a potential sprint, even with this gradient (which I think is too steep for him), which could leave Gallopin riding a support role. Moreover, Gallopin’s decent GC position could keep him from getting involved in a potentially stage-winning breakaway. He will still be among the most dangerous riders to watch on Stage 13, but there are factors that may be a bit beyond his control that could hold him back.

Greg Van Avermaet has been in the mix on several stages so far in the 2015 Tour, and has climbed admirably to high placings on days with short steep finishes. This certainly qualifies. With the number of hilly days on tap, Van Avermaet has a great chance of coming away with a victory soon—if he sees this as a good opportunity, he could try to get into an early break, and that makes him especially dangerous.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has also put in several good rides so far, and this bumpy parcours suits him very well. He doesn’t quite have the finishing kick he used to, but he’s got a sharp eye for opportunities to escape the pack, and this is a good profile for such a talent.

Dan Martin will be a top favorite either from a breakaway (and he showed on Stage 11 that he’s not afraid to get up the road) or from the bunch in an uphill sprint. This finale is tailormade to his talents. He’s come close to success several times so far in this race—if he can manage to position himself better on Stage 13 than he has on previous stages, Martin has the explosiveness to take a win. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal could have a shot as well. He’s got more punch than many realize, and has a knack for getting into breakaways at this point in his career.

EQS has several very strong options for the stage. It’s probably too steep for Mark Cavendish, but Zdenek Stybar should thrive on the final climb. Matteo Trentin and even Rigoberto Urán could be in the mix as well. Michal Kwiatkowski, at his best, would love this stage, but after a brutal day in the breakaway, and not on top form, it seems unlikely that Kwiatkowski will be able to mount that much of a challenge for stage honors.

Katusha’s, Joaquim Rodríguez might also be a bit too tired after his Stage 12 win to try another day in the breakaway, but the steep kick to the line does suit the punchy Spaniard.

The Tommy Voeckler of 2015 is a far cry from the Tommy Voeckler of 2012, but the Stage 13 profile suits him nevertheless. Compatriot Sylvain Chavanel has been actively battling to get into the breakaway so far in the 2015 Tour, and could look to get aggressive on here. This intermediate stage looks good for his skillset. Another Frenchman, the explosive Alexis Vuillermoz, is deadly on the high gradients and capable of getting into a move if he sees the opportunity. He’d probably prefer a longer drag to the line, but will still be one to watch on Stage 13.

John Degenkolb has flashed impressive ability even on the very steep stuff during his career, but this will be a bigger challenge than he’d prefer, and for him to have any chance at winning, the stage will have to come down to a sprint, which isn’t even close to a given. He’s still got to be among the favorites in that scenario, but it’s going to be a tough ask for the versatile German. Bryan Coquard, Michael Matthews, Davide Cimolai, and Alexander Kristoff are other versatile fast finishers whose chances will rely on this stage coming down to a sprint from the peloton, though should that happen, they’ll also have to fight with a number of aforementioned puncheurs and the more explosive GC types, with Alejandro Valverde far and away the biggest name in that department. In an uphill bunch kick, expect the Flèche Wallonne winner to shine. Few riders on this startlist are as well-suited to a finish like this.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Greg Van Avermaet | 3. Tony Gallopin

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 13.

-Dane Cash

July 16, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Lannemezan › Plateau de Beille – 195km

With Rafal Majka’s stage victory in Cauterets, the Tour de France is two thirds of the way through a hard stretch of climbing days in the Pyrenees. Stage 12 should provide a thrilling Pyrenean finale. After 40 easy kilometers to start, it’s up and down all the way to the line. First up is the steep Col de Portet-d’Aspet, 4.3 kilometers at a vicious 9.7%. For a Cat. 2, it will be an unpleasant way to kick off what is set to be a very difficult day. From the top it’s about 20km of downhill to the foot of the Cat. 1 Col de la Core, 14.1km at 5.7%. It’s a climb that starts out relatively easy, but the final 8 kilometers are a bit more difficult, steadily above 6%. The descent from the summit runs to the town of Oust, where the road kicks up gently again on the way to the official start of the Cat. 1 Port de Lers climb, 12.9km at a 6% average gradient.

A very long descent follows before things flatten out for a short stretch before the road angles upward sharply—the Plateau de Beille finishing climb is one of the hardest challenges the riders will face in the Tour de France. 15.8 kilometers at 7.9%, it’s a long, steep trip up. It’s a mostly steady climb at least, but that won’t provide much comfort seeing as the gradient is high the entire way up, except at the very top where things flatten out in the final run to the line.

It may not have the name recognition of Stage 11’s Tourmalet, but Stage 12’s Plateau de Beille climb is an extremely difficult mountain test.

With so many vertical meters to overcome on the day and a finishing climb like the Plateau de Beille, Stage 12 is one for the pure climbing talents. There have already been plenty of testing days so far in this Tour de France of course, but there really isn’t any margin for weakness on Stage 12, which will find out those lacking fitness early, and make them pay all the way to the finish.

The profile should offer the breakaway a chance at success, and many of the likely escape candidates kept their powder dry on Stage 11; a strong enough group of aggressors has a chance at success here. However, this is the final day of high mountain racing for a little while, which will likely inspire hostilities among the GC types. What’s more, the final climb will require a significant gap for the breakaway to outlast any determined chasers. A breakaway of less-than-elite climbers isn’t likely to have much of a chance, and even one made up of top talents is going to have a hard time staying clear.

Chris Froome is far and away the strongest climber in the race right now, and he happens to enjoy the support of the strongest team as well. If he wants this stage, it’s hard to see anyone stopping him. The question is whether he’ll put in the effort with nearly 3 minutes of an advantage over his nearest rivals. He didn’t shy away from padding his GC lead in the 2013 Tour even after a dominant Stage 8 win, but there is no guarantee he’ll stick to that strategy here. Sky could also give Richie Porte or Geraint Thomas a chance to ride for a stage victory if Froome’s top lieutenants are still with him near the summit finish.

Nairo Quintana looked better on Stage 10 than he has all race, notching a 3rd-place finish on the stage, and he should continue to improve after an early bout with illness. At his best, he is probably one of the few riders capable of matching Froome on a finish like this. He will benefit from having a teammate high up on GC: Movistar’s one-two punch is a deadly weapon in this Tour, and the riders in dark blue will need to play all their cards if they want any hope at the Tour GC title now that Froome is already so far ahead—watch out for Alejandro Valverde here too.

Robert Gesink was surprisingly the 4th best finisher on Stage 10. If he can hold on with the top GC riders all the way up to the top of the finishing climb, he’s not bad in a reduced uphill sprint (his surprise win in the GP Québec in 2013 can attest to that). Compatriot Bauke Mollema made a nice jump from the pack to pick up a few seconds on Stage 11—he too has a nice finishing move and could get in the mix on Stage 12.

Alberto Contador is clearly not at his strongest in this Tour on the heels of his Giro win, but he can’t be counted out on an HC-rated summit finish. Tejay van Garderen was not really in with a chance at the stage victory on Stage 10’s climb to the line, but he rode well and could put in a good performance on Stage 12 if the pace is kept relatively steady in the finale.

Pierre Rolland finished ahead of Contador and van Garderen both on Stage 10, and he was right with the GC men on Stage 11. Unlike the aforementioned riders, high on the General Classification, Rolland is over 13 minutes down on Chris Froome on the overall leaderboard. If he wants to go for this from afar, he should be given a chance. He kept his breakaway powder dry on Stage 11, and while it’s always a challenge predicting who will get into the long-range moves, if Rolland can get some space on Stage 12 he’ll be a top favorite.

Rafal Majka didn’t keep any powder dry on Stage 11, riding all the way to a stage victory, but he looks to be on sharp form right now and could go for another long one here.

Joaquim Rodríguez lost a big chunk of time on Stage 11 and is not even on the fringes of the GC conversation anymore. It’s hard to say what that means for his form. If he’s only a little off of 100%, he could just be saving up for a big mountain push, so don’t count him out on this stage which would seem to suit his skillset.

Adam Yates, Jakob Fuglsang, Rafael Valls, Thibaut Pinot, Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin, Alexis Vuillermoz, Louis Meintjes, and Romain Bardet are others on the very long list of riders whose stage victory chances are boosted by the fact that they’ll probably be given some breathing room to go on the attack from far out on Stage 12.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Pierre Rolland

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 12.

-Dane Cash

July 15, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Pau › Cauterets – 188km

Stage 10, the Tour’s first mountain stage, provided the first real glimpse into the climbing form of the GC names in this race, with Chris Froome making the biggest statement of them all on the slopes of the final ascent (as Whit Yost predicted he would in the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast). Stage 11 will provide the uphill specialists with another opportunity to put their skills on display.

The first half of the stage will see the riders heading gradually skyward, taking on three not-that-difficult climbs on the way, before things get extremely difficult after the midway point of the day. First comes the 12km, 6.5% Col d’Aspin. From the top, the riders will fly down a descent and right into the foot of the HC-rated Col du Tourmalet, 17.1km at 7.3%. The legendary Tourmalet starts out at lower gradients, but things really kick up after the first third of the climb, with the gradients starting to hit double digits about halfway up.

The stage does not end at the Tourmalet summit, however. After crossing the line at the KOM, the pack will head downhill for over 30 kilometers, before reaching the Cat. 3 Côte de Cauterets, 6.4km at 5%. The finish awaits a little over 3km after the that climb.

There are plenty of places on Stage 11 for the climbers to go on the move, and it will be extremely difficult to control the race with so much up and down. After a brutal Stage 10 and with another challenging Stage 12 on tap, with plenty of now-former GC hopefuls significantly down on the General Classification, and with a boatload of KOM points on offer long before the line here, this will be a great opportunity for breakaway success, either from the main early move, or from a later strike on the slopes. Sky is probably not going to be interested in keeping the breakaway on a short leash, meaning that only a concerted effort by the teams further down on the GC leaderboard will keep this in check. As usual on days that offer the long-range attackers such a strong chance at success, Stage 11 will be very hard to predict, with aggressive climbers looking to be the best bets for victory.

If the peloton takes a reserved approach to the Tourmalet, the more enterprising riders will have a prime opportunity to get clear and hold out for the win on Stage 11. One of the sport’s foremost breakaway conneisseurs, Pierre Rolland, finished among the Top 10 on Stage 10, ahead of both Tejay van Garderen and Alberto Contador, among others. Over 10 minutes behind on the General Classification, Rolland won’t threaten Sky, and he shouldn’t not threaten those vying for podium spots either. Stage 11 has a great profile for Rolland, one of cycling’s best when it comes to constant ups and downs.

Tony Gallopin finished just behind Rolland on Stage 10, an incredible performance for the versatile Frenchman. The Tourmalet is a brutal climb, but the way Gallopin has been riding, he could survive the challenge the contend for the win at a finish that suits him perfectly—the big question for Gallopin will be whether the other GC hopefuls in the Top 10 will give him any breathing room to go on teh move; it seems crazy that Gallopin could be considered a threat into the Pyrenees, but the held onto a great position so far, and anyone looking to secure a Top 5 finish in this race could see him as a danger. If he’s in the lead group before the final climb (whether that’s a breakaway group or the pack), Gallopin should be a top favorite for a stage victory.

Stage 11 also looks great for Joaquim Rodríguez, who could use the late climb as a launching pad or alternatively, hold out for a sprint if he’s at the head of the race at the end of the day—but Rodríguez did not look good on Stage 10. The Grand Tour veteran is a decent bounce-back candidate though, and now that he’s well out of GC contention, he could be given some breathing room to go on the move.

Rafael Valls appeared to take over team leadership from Rui Costa of Lampre-Merida on Stage 10, and he put in a bold long-range attack early on during the final climb to the line. Valls is something of an unknown quantity, only just starting to ride at this level this season, but if he can muster his impressive talents to get into a breakaway, I think he has a great chance of pulling off a big surprise here; and don’t count out Costa, who does tend to thrive on a parcuors like this.

A glance at the Stage 10 results doesn’t tell the whole picture about Warren Barguil’s form right now—he finished over 3 minutes behind Froome on the day, but that’s after coming back from a late crash that cost him serious time. The climbing legs look to be there in spades right now, and at over 6 minutes back on the GC, Barguil may get some freedom to attack. His two-stage-win 2013 Vuelta was a master class in mountain breakaway riding, and he could be in the hunt for a long-range strike here.

A now-down-on-GC Vincenzo Nibali, Dan Martin, Julian Arredondo, Michal Kwiatkowski, Thibaut Pinot, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema, Laurens Ten Dam, Alexis Vuillermoz, both Simon and Adam Yates, and potentially even Peter Sagan are just a few more of the many riders on the list of potential stage-winners well-positioned to make something happen either from the bunch or in a long-range move now that big gaps have opened up on the GC leaderboard.

If this comes down to a pack finish, Alejandro Valverde will be among the top favorites with a potential reduced sprint on tap. He came close to stage victory on the Mûr-de-Bretagne climb, he’s looked better these past few days than he did at the start of the race, and the collective firepower of Movistar makes him very dangerous. Robert Gesink, who finished an impressive 4th on Stage 10, has both the form and a nice finishing kick to be a danger here as well.

It will be interesting to see whether the big GC hopefuls decide to be active on the Tourmalet, so far from the finish. If so, Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will be obvious favorites to resume hostilities, with Froome looking to have the edge after the first round of mountain dueling. Alternatively, Alberto Contador and Tejay van Garderen could look to regain some time here with a late strike, though it own’t be easy escaping the dominant Sky train right now.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Pierre Rolland | 2. Tony Gallopin | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 11.

-Dane Cash

July 14, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Martin – 167km

The Tour’s first rest day gave the peloton an opportunity to get some much-needed time off (and it gave the Recon Ride time to record the second of three Tour de France podcast episodes, which includes plenty of race analysis worth listening to!), but the mountains of Stage 10, the first real climbs of the race, will be a rude awakening for the bunch.

The trip from Tarbes to La Pierre-Saint-Martin in the Pyrenees will be a relatively short one at 167 total kilometers. The first 140 of those kilometers won’t offer much in the way of challenging topography—three Cat. 4 climbs dot the profile along the way from the start of the stage to the foot of the final climb.

That final climb will be the hardest uphill test so far in this Tour de France. La Pierre-Saint-Martin is a 15.3-kilometer ascent at an average gradient of 7.4%. The most difficult section comes about half-way through, a 4km stretch at over 9%. Then things ease off a bit, before another quick steep section near the summit, where things even out again close to the line.

The La Pierre-Saint-Martin finale of Stage 10 will likely be the first real GC showdown of the 2015 Tour.

With two more tough mountain days to follow, Stage 10 could have some riders planning to take things easy. Expect the early breakaway to open up a big advantage over the first hundred kilometers. Plus, July 14th is Bastille Day—the many French riders in the peloton will be more motivated than ever to get some TV time at the head of the race, and it could be a crowded fight to be in the day’s big move. On the other hand, the bunch will probably amp up the pace on the flat stretch that leads into the foot of the last climb, and then the challenging finale will likely see any riders up the road losing a lot of time to a chasing pack. In short, the breakaway has a shot here, but it will be a challenge holding off the peloton.

The difficulty of this climb to the finish will likely bring out the top climbers in the race. Chris Froome, enjoying the GC lead at the moment, certainly fits that description. Froome built his 2013 victory on a dominant early-stage performance, and could be looking to do the same here. His impressive team should put him into a good position to strike in the finale, if he is so inclined—he does already have the yellow jersey though, and that could inspire him to be a bit more conservative, allowing the others to do the attacking.

Nairo Quintana has not been at his best so far in the Tour, but he should be starting to come good at this point in the race, especially after a rest day. Almost 2 minutes down on GC, Quintana may be given a bit of breathing room by the other favorites if he gets up the road—and even if his GC rivals aren’t inclined to let him up the road, it may not make much of a difference to one of the world’s best climbers. Quintana’s teammate Alejandro Valverde is also an obvious candidate to make something happen on Stage 10.

Alberto Contador’s ability to hang with the top climbers in his race after a tough Giro has been a major question mark so far. After Stage 10, we’ll have some answers. Based on what he’s shown up to this point, I’m expecting Contador to be able be in the mix, but would be surprised if he’s among the very top finishers on the stage. This is even truer for Vincenzo Nibali who struggled on Stage 8.

Joaquim Rodríguez is in excellent form at the moment. He might be looking to launch a move on the steeper sections of the final climb. Alternatively, if he’s able to stay at the front of the race, he’ll be a favorite in a potential sprint to the line at the top of the climb.

Tejay van Garderen was one of the few riders in Chris Froome’s stratosphere in the Dauphiné. He’s climbing better than ever this season, and has a strong support squad around him. If this comes down to a GC battle on the slopes of the final climb, expect van Garderen to be in the mix. Unfortunately for van Garderen, Froome is eyeing him closely given his current position on GC, and that will make it hard for him to get clear in the finale.

Thibaut Pinot will be a rider to watch on France’s National Holiday. He’s no longer much of a GC threat, but the form has certainly been there this year—that makes him a dangerous rider who could try to go for a long one. Compatriots Romain Bardet and Warren Barguil could also look for opportunities to get clear as well.

Alexis Vuillermoz has put in some big rides on tough mountain stages recently and could be in the mix either with an early attack or a late one. Pierre Rolland has not looked his usual self so far in the Tour, but he could bounce back in a breakaway here. Ryder Hesjedal, Julian Arredondo, Adam Yates, Louis Meintjes, and Rafal Majka are other riders to keep an eye on in a potential long-range move scenario.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Thibaut Pinot

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 10.

-Dane Cash

July 13, 2015