Tag: Tips

Tour de France 2014: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Gérardmer › Mulhouse – 170 km

With the peloton content to give the morning breakaway its chance at success, Blel Kadri of AG2R took victory on Stage 8 after a long day out front. Stage 9, the Tour’s second stage in the hilly Vosges region of France, is very likely to set up another breakaway victory. A constant barrage of climbs awaits from the very beginning of the day, with six categorized ascents in the first 127 kilometers. The vertical gain will add up as the journey wears on, with the penultimate categorized climb of 10.8 kilometers at 5.4% serving as a particularly challenging test that could see action among the General Classification contenders. After a long descent from Grand Ballon, there are approximately 20 kilometers of flat to close out the stage.

Stage 9 has the undulating profile that breakaway specialists love to see. Even if the strong teams in the race feel inclined to keep the break on a short leash, they will have a difficult time controlling things as the road constantly alternates between ups and downs. The peloton will hit the foot of a tough Category 2 climb only 3 kilometers into the day, and from there it’s going to be a fierce battle to get into the morning breakaway, given the likelihood of long-distance success. It’s never a certainty that the morning break will survive even on a day like this, and if things do come come together as the stage nears its conclusion there are a few riders who stand out as favorites from the pack, but it seems more likely that the winner of Stage 9 will come from a long-range move.

As with any breakaway-friendly stage, it will be extremely difficult to predict which riders will make it into the successful move. The likeliest protagonists for Stage 9 will be those opportunists who possess the well-rounded skillset to a handle a long day of uphill challenges and fast descents. A quick finish could come in handy given the flat run-in to the line. A number of talented all-rounders come to mind as possible protagonists.

Jan Bakelants of OPQS has a very versatile skillset, and he is particularly adept at getting into the right moves when he sees a chance for long-range success. He did just that in the Criterium du Dauphine this year, winning the fourth stage after spending the day in a sizeable break. This could be his opportunity to pick up a second career Tour de France victory. He is an underrated climber with a few WorldTour GC Top 10s to his name, but he also has an excellent sprint, which will make him dangerous at this finish. Teammate Matteo Trentin could also look to add to his collection of Tour de France victories here; this is a tough profile, but he’s a surprisingly strong climber, and he showed just how good he is in a sprint with his Stage 7 victory over Peter Sagan. And never count out time trialing machine Tony Martin, who, in addition to being the world’s best solo artist, can also climb surprisingly well.

Orica-GreenEdge always has a variety of options for a day like this. Michael Albasini is a rider capable of handling almost any terrain, and he can also sprint with the very best. He is a proven expert at picking the right early move. That array of skills, combined with the excellent form he is showing right now, makes him a good candidate to try something from afar. Simon Gerrans appears to have recovered from his opening stage crash; should he get into the right move, he will be tough to drop, and deadly in a sprint finale. Simon Clarke, a breakaway specialist who won the King of the Mountains competition in the 2012 Vuelta, is yet another option.

Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, and Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter and Ramunas Navardauskas all share an affinity for the hilly days, and all of them are quick in a reduced sprint; any one of them could be looking to get off the front early on Stage 9.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak has shown an ability to hang with some of the top climbers in the peloton in one-week races, but he is hunting stages in the Tour de France. If he gets into the morning break, his companions off the front could have trouble staying on his wheel when the road goes up. Teammate Joaquim Rodriguez, also hunting stages in the race, deserves a mention as well, though he has not looked to be back to full strength just yet.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon won the Alpe d’Huez stage of the 2013 Tour de France and will be looking for further success this year. He has spent a lot of time at the back of the peloton so far, but perhaps he is just saving energy for one climactic move.

On a stage as breakaway-friendly as this, it’s hard to be confident in any list of potential long-range protagonists that doesn’t include every rider in the race, but since naming almost two hundred names wouldn’t be practical, I’ll mention only a few more riders that I think have the right qualities for success: Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Trek’s Jens Voigt, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, and Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti are always worthy of a mention when a long-range victory seems likely, while Europcar’s Cyril Gautier and Tommy Voeckler, Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin, IAM Cycling’s Sebastien Reichenbach, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo are all strong climbers who could see this as their opportunity for glory. To close out the list, though it’s hard to imagine that any one of them won’t be exhausted after a tough day out front on Stage 8, Simon Yates, Sylvain Chavanel, and Blel Kadri could look to get involved in the break for a second day in a row.

Should the GC contenders decide to put each other under real pressure on the slopes, it is possible that the increase in pace will close down those off the front before the end of the day. If that should happen, the fast finishers still in the pack could be the main beneficiaries in terms of stage-winning glory, as a flat final 20 kilometers will make it hard for any one rider to escape. Some of the aforementioned contenders (those who excel in the sprints) could decide stay in the pack, hoping for this scenario and a chance to battle with the speedier GC types, foremost of whom has to be Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde. Given his impressive finishing kick, he will be a top favorite if this all comes back together before the line. OPQS’s Michal Kwiatkowski may be his only rival in the sprints among the GC contenders, though he struggled on Stage 8, possibly showing signs of fatigue after expending a lot of energy for his and his teammates’ stage ambitions during the first week. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa are also very quick to the line. Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, and Pierre Rolland don’t have the same closing speed and probably wouldn’t be in the mix in a sprint finish, but they could try to get up and over the final climb ahead of their rivals and then try to maintain a gap to the end.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan gets a final mention all to himself. A lot of things would have to go right for him to contend here, but remember his Stage 3 victory in the 2013 Tour de Suisse; he stuck with Rui Costa, Roman Kreuziger, and Mathias Frank over a Category 1 climb (when even Bauke Mollema and Dan Martin were dropped) to take the win. If there’s one thing Sagan has taught us, it is that he can never be counted out. There are some hard climbs in this profile, but don’t be surprised to see him going for it anyway, even if that means trying to get into the day’s breakaway.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Albasini | 2. Simon Spilak | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 9, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 12, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Tomblaine › Gérardmer La Mauselaine – 161 km

In the Tour’s seventh stage, Matteo Trentin earned his second career Tour de France win on a mostly flat day with a late sting in the tail. Stage 8 is another day of mostly flat roads leading into a late challenge, but this time the sting is a whole lot nastier. After 133 kilometers with only a few minor rollers, the Stage 8 profile suddenly turns savage. First comes the tough Cat. 2 climb of the Col de la Croix des Moinats, 7.6 km at an average gradient of 6%. After a speedy descent comes another Cat. 2 of 3 km at a steeper 7.5%. One more fast downhill leads into the final 1.8 kilometers, where the road kicks up in a vicious 10.3% average gradient 3rd Category climb to the Gérardmer finish. It’s not a long day, but the three late climbs are sure to weed out those who are not at the top of their game.

The early break will likely get a big advantage in the first two hours of racing, and with no chance for the pure sprinters at this finish and mountains on the horizon, the peloton’s chase may be a bit less spirited than we’ve seen on other stages. There is a chance of breakaway success here. Still, this will be the first real opportunity for the climbing specialists to do damage in the General Classification fight, which will probably lead to a real injection of pace from the pack in the last forty kilometers or so, at which point the break may struggle to hold their advantage on the flat run-in to the climbs. As such, this could be the first stage in the Tour that ends in a showdown among the GC candidates (with a few other punchy types likely in the mix as well). Any one of the day’s three uphill challenges could see action, with fireworks guaranteed on the steep final ascent.

With this finale, Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has to be a rider to watch. The winner of the 2014 edition of La Fleche Wallonne is one of most explosive uphill finishers in the peloton, and he has been on top form all year, flashing his brilliance with victory after victory since February. With a chance to pick up time on his rivals, he’s certain to light up these late climbs.

Close behind Valverde at every turn in the Ardennes Classics was Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Stage 7 looked like a great opportunity for the versatile Kwiatkowski, but it turned out that he and his team were working for the also versatile Matteo Trentin. Kwiatkowski will have his opportunity on Stage 8. The short climbs are his forte, and he won’t have a problem with the descents that lead into the last climb of the day.

As one might expect on a stage involving a succession of late ascents closed out by a 10.3% climb, Alberto Contador will be a major player as well. The Tinkoff-Saxo leader knows he needs to pick up time on GC at every opportunity. An excellent descender, he may even try to strike out on the first or second categorized climb and attempt to grab an advantage from further out (and this could happen whether the peloton has reeled in the break or not). Contador has been unrivaled on the climbs so far this year, and this steep finish will allow him to turn the screws on his opponents for the yellow jersey of the Tour de France.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez would perhaps be the top favorite on this finish if his form weren’t in question. It is not clear how far along he is in his post-Giro recovery. Still, it’s hard to draw up a final two kilometers more perfect for Purito than these, and now that he’s further behind on GC than Andre Girepel, he’ll have the added benefit of being able to go on the attack without worrying the GC men. Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter and OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini are other very strong puncheurs who could enjoy that sort of freedom as well; head-to-head against the likes of Valverde this could be too steep for them, but as non-threats for the yellow jersey, they may be allowed off the front if they want to go for it. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is further down on GC than he would have hoped, but that will at least grant him more flexibility to strike on Stage 8. It’s not one that necessarily favors him over the other GC types, but if he gets ahead of the pack in a move of non-GC riders, his chances will be good.

Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa and Chris Horner and Belkin’s Bauke Mollema should handle the final slopes well. AG2R’s Romain Bardet has shown some punch at times this year. This will be a good test to see just how strong Sky’s new leader Richie Porte is on the climbs right now. Garmin-Sharp’s Andrew Talansky and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck don’t immediately come to mind on a final climb like this, but both have looked to be on excellent form in the past few weeks.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, AG2R’s Christophe Riblon, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo are all excellent climbers who are out of the GC picture entirely, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them among those trying something from afar. Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier of Europcar are almost certain to be on the lookout for long-range success on Stage 8. Jan Bakelants of OPQS may be as well. It will be interesting to see if Tinkoff-Saxo puts any of Contador’s elite trio of lieutenants (Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche, and Michael Rogers) up the road. Lastly, Cannondale’s Peter Sagan at least deserves a mention: I highly doubt that he will be in the mix on something as steep as this last climb, but he was among the Top 15 riders in 2013’s La Fleche Wallonne; he may at least give it a shot!

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Alberto Contador | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 8, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 11, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Épernay › Nancy – 234.5 km

With four days for the sprinters (including a Stage 6 that went to Andre Greipel) already on the books in the 2014 Tour de France, one could be forgiven for taking a cursory look at the Stage 7 profile and assuming that it’s certain to lead to another bunch sprint showdown. After all, a pair of Cat. 4 climbs are the only categorized uphill challenges on the menu. However, both of those climbs are crested in the final 20 kilometers of the day, and the second, though only 1.3 kilometers in total length, grades out at an average of 7.9%—and from the top it’s less than 6 km to the line, mostly downhill. What’s more, Stage 7 is 234.5 kilometers from start to finish, making it the second longest stage in the entire Tour de France.

That last bump in the road could inspire the punchier riders to attempt escape close to the finish, especially after such a long day in the saddle. And with a few tough stages ahead and no certainty that the big sprinters will survive late attacks, the peloton could struggle finding the motivation to chase down the day’s breakaway, making a long-distance winner at least a possibility. There are a number of different potential scenarios for Stage 7, making it a hard one to predict. However it plays out, the favorites will be the riders with the endurance to handle all 234.5 km and the versatility and explosiveness to excel in what will likely be a challenging finale.

As is often the case in the difficult hilly stages, Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will be a favorite for victory. If the peloton does bring this all back together before it’s too late, his team will likely have played a role, and more than any other speedster in the Tour de France, Sagan is capable of handling the steep stuff. If anything, he is himself a danger to put in a dig on the climb and then divebomb the descent all the way to the line. In a sprint, he is one of the fastest in the peloton, and it seems possible that the German duo generally regarded as a tier above him might struggle on the last ascent. This could be his best opportunity so far to pick up a win.

Andre Greipel of Lotto Belisol, one of the aforementioned duo, is underrated in his ability to handle difficult days, but this might be a bit too much to ask; there just won’t be a lot of time for anyone who loses ground on the final climb to get back into contention, given the descent that follows. Meanwhile, Lotto’s sprint nemesis Giant-Shimano will be in a tough spot; normally this might be a day for Marcel Kittel to give leadership over to versatile John Degenkolb, but Degenkolb was injured in the Tour’s fifth stage and may not be able to contend. Obviously, if Kittel or Degenkolb manage to hold on for a sprint finish, they will be favorites, but that seems like a lot to ask.

There are a few sprinters other than Sagan who do have a decent shot here, however. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff relishes the extra-long days, and he’s not a bad climber either. He has come close to victory more than once so far in this Tour, and a stage that may see Kittel unable to contest the sprint is his best opportunity to finally get a victory. Ramunas Navardauskas is slotted in as Garmin-Sharp’s sprinter of note, and he is especially adept at fast finishes following tough days. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare normally displays decent uphill ability, but he crashed on Stage 6, and even after finding his way back to the bunch following the incident, he was later dropped before the sprint finish; he may not be at full strength here, though if he is feeling up for it, he’s a danger in a bunch gallop.

Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, and OPQS’s Mark Renshaw have all performed well in the fast finishes so far, but even this does end in a sprint, surviving the difficult day could be too much to ask from them. Meanwhile, versatile quick men like Movistar’s JJ Rojas, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, normally fringe contenders, could find themselves a bit better positioned than usual should this come down to a reduced bunch sprint.

With a late climb coming after a long day of riding, we are certain to see plenty of punchy, aggressive riders trying to escape from the pack, or at least attempting to drop the speedsters that we’ve seen over and over again in the Tour’s many sprint stages so far. For these in-betweener, opportunist types, it may be a tough decision whether or not to try for a victory from the breakaway or from the peloton: I think the pack is the smarter choice here, but if a strong enough group makes the early move, it isn’t a given that the pack will reel them in.

Either from the break or the peloton, Orica-GreenEdge has cards to play for Stage 7 in Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini. Gerrans would have been a top favorite for the stage, but I’m not sure he’s back to full strength after his crash in the Tour’s first stage. If he is recovered by the time the peloton sets out from Épernay, though, he will have an excellent chance at victory: the Milano-Sanremo and Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner loves long, grueling days, and he excels on late climbs. Michael Albasini will be a more than able alternative for OGE. He has been very explosive this year, putting in a nice performance on the steep final climb of La Fleche Wallonne and nabbing sprint victories aplenty in the Tour de Romandie.

Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS always seems to be in the mix when a profile calls for an explosive finish. If any GC contenders decide to put the pressure on over Stage 7’s late bumps, expect Kwiatkowski to be right there at the end; he’s one of the two or three best sprinters of the General Classification riders. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is another. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema can be very explosive, and he’s underrated in the sprints even on a flat surface. Lampre’s Rui Costa loves to go on the attack on this sort of profile. And, of course, don’t rule out another attempted strike from yellow jersey wearer Vincenzo Nibali, who could see a steep ascent followed by a fast descent as a nice opportunity to pick up more time.

BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet just missed out on victory in the Tour’s second stage when the lead group allowed Nibali to escape, leaving 2nd place as the best possible result for those behind, but he’ll have another opportunity here to make it into a late move on the climb and then attempt outsprint anyone around him in the finish. The rider who broke Van Avermaet’s heart in the Tour of Flanders earlier this year, Fabian Cancellara, will also relish this opportunity: the long, challenging days are his forte, and he will enter Stage 7 with a deadly combination of good form (which he has shown on a number of stages so far) and plenty of motivation (having been unable to pick up a victory just yet).

Other riders who don’t mind a tough day of racing and who could look to escape from the pack, either in the day’s early break or late in the stage, include Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, and Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin. Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez might have seen the late ascent as a nice opportunity to make a move, but he has not looked to be back to full strength just yet.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Alexander Kristoff | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 7, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 10, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Arras › Reims – 194 km

Following a brutal, rain-soaked fifth stage that saw defending Tour de France champion Chris Froome abandon the race and former cyclocross World Champion Lars Boom take a win, the peloton will breathe a collective sigh of relief for Stage 6. It’s another mostly flat day. There are only two categorized climbs on the menu, both of them Category 4s and far enough from the finish line that they’re unlikely to put anyone into too much trouble. The parcours should bring on another sprint finale. An excess of roundabouts and then a few turns as the stage nears the Reims finish line will make for a bit of a hectic run-in, but the stage closes out with a long straightaway that will likely lead to a very high-speed finale.

Naturally, Marcel Kittel will be the day’s big favorite. On the Tour’s fourth stage, things were much closer in the sprint finish than they had been in earlier stages, but Kittel still emerged as the victor. He is likely to pick up another win here. He has the strong team to guide him to the straightaway, where his opponents will have difficulty matching his unrivalled top speed in what projects to be a very fast finish. It would be a surprise if anyone outguns Kittel for Stage 6 in Reims. John Degenkolb will play his usual role as Giant-Shimano’s strong second option if anything happens to Kittel.

Andre Greipel, at his best, has a top speed that at least comes close to that of his countryman Kittel, but he has struggled to get in position for the bunch gallops so far in the Tour de France and has yet to really contest a stage. Leadout man Greg Henderson has abandoned the race, which will make things even tougher for Greipel, and the possibility of rain could lead to continued difficulty in getting into a comfortable position for the finale. It’s very hard to project Greipel’s performance right now; just a few weeks ago he was looking great across a number of races, but he seems to be missing something in this Tour de France.

Peter Sagan may have only landed 4th on Stage 4’s sprint finish after a pair of 2nd place results in the previous bunch sprints, but that 4th place came after crashing in the last half hour of racing. He still looks like a strong contender behind Kittel, assuming he isn’t too exhausted after a long day in the lead group on the cobbles. Alexander Kristoff finally made it to the finish without any serious misfortune along the way on the Tour’s fourth stage and he very nearly won the day, getting just pipped at the line. Of course, misfortune aplenty struck on the fifth stage of the race, as crashes put him out of contention early, but Stage 6 will be a fresh opportunity. Given the potential for more rain (he tends to cope with bad weather very well), Kristoff should be in the mix.

FDJ’s Arnaud Demare looks to be coming around for the sprints after struggling with wrist pain early on. He should contend on Stage 6, as should Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, who has been in the Top 5 of every bunch sprint so far. He may not have much team support to guide him to the finish, but if he can make it to the last kilometer at the head of affairs he will be very dangerous.

Mark Renshaw of OPQS showed off his excellent overall form on the cobbled fifth stage, and he has filled in admirably as Cav’s replacement in the sprints. Another strong result could be in the cards for him on Stage 6. Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Lampre-Meridas’s Davide Cimolai, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas will be other fringe contenders.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Andre Greipel

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 6, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 9, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Ypres › Arenberg Porte du Hainaut – 155.5 km

Though Marcel Kittel’s unsurprising victory in a bunch sprint might suggest that the Tour’s fourth stage was an uneventful one, Chris Froome, Bauke Mollema, Niki Terpstra, and a number of Lotto Belisol leadout men were among the many riders to hit the deck on the day. Unfortunately for them, there will not be much time to recover from any injuries they may have sustained in their crashes, as one of the Tour’s most anticipated and potentially dangerous days awaits. Stage 5 is unique among the twenty-one stages of the Tour de France in that it features several stretches of cobbled roads. While the profile may be mostly flat, the peloton must overcome nine cobbled sectors, which begin at around the 87 km mark and then appear intermittently most of the way to the finish. Some of them are particularly difficult: Stage 5 includes visits to many of the most famous challenges ridden in the spring’s Paris-Roubaix, including sections of the Carrefour de l’Arbre and the Mons-en-Pévèle. The penultimate cobbled sector, Wandignies-Hamage à Hornaing, is the day’s longest at 3.7 km, and it comes less than 20 km from the finish. On top of the tough parcours, it may rain, which would make things even more hectic.

On cobbles as difficult as these, punctures and mechanicals could wreak havoc on the peloton, threatening to end the GC hopes of those unfortunate enough to hit trouble. Most of those GC riders are particularly light, and therefore, even more susceptible to being bounced around on the bumpy roads. While they are holding on for dear life, a different group of riders will be locked in to hunt the stage victory. The stars of the spring Classics will have a rare opportunity to shine in a Grand Tour on Stage 5, and on their favored terrain they’re certain to make this an interesting race. A constant flow of attacks and counter-attacks is likely. Excellent bike handling skills and the ability to keep up with repeated accelerations getting into position for each cobbled sector will be crucial, just as they are in the Spring. It is important to note, however, that Stage 5 is nowhere near the length of Paris-Roubaix. At 155.5 kilometers, the bumpy road to the finish line will not wear out the pack in just the same way that more than 250 km of racing would.

As such, while the powerful, aggressive classics stars will certainly feature prominently on Stage 5, the day is simply not difficult enough for a successful attack by a cobblestone specialist to be the only likely outcome. The cobbles will whittle down the peloton, but it is possible that this ends in a reduced sprint among the more capable quick men. With the outcome so difficult to predict, there is no clear favorite, though there are several riders who should be considered strong contenders.

Fabian Cancellara is an obvious candidate to make a move on the cobbles. The three-time Paris-Roubaix winner had another excellent spring campaign in 2014 and he has looked good so far in this race. With so many teams focused on getting their GC leader safely to the finish, Cancellara could put in a dig from far out and remain solo all the way to the line; he certainly seems to be the likeliest candidate for an escape victory. What sets him apart here from the many classics-specialists here is his varied toolset; he is much more than a cobbled specialist, with soloing ability almost unrivaled in the peloton and a decent finishing kick as well, should he come to the line with a group. As this stage is not as long or as difficult as the spring classics, that broad toolset could be pivotal.

BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet is always a likely attacker on difficult roads, and he has the extra-motivation of being well-positioned on GC; a small gap to those around him on the leaderboard could put him into yellow. Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke is another of the classics specialists who will hope to get away; he has made a name for himself with terrific cobbled performances over the last two years, though victories in the biggest races have eluded him, as he has often found himself just behind Fabian Cancellara at the finish line. This will be a nice opportunity. Teammate Lars Boom will be a powerful ally and potential alternative; he’s strong on the cobbles but also very quick in a finish if he needs to be.

Niki Terpstra of OPQS, winner of the 2014 Paris-Roubaix, will hopefully be feeling up for some aggressive riding the day after a crash. Jens Keukeleire and Matt Hayman of Orica-GreenEdge make a nice 1-2 for the cobbles, and OGE knows how to get off the front of the pack on a tough day. Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts and possibly Tony Gallopin, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, Garmin’s Johan Van Summeren and Sebastian Langeveld, Katusha’s Luca Paolini, and possibly even Sky’s Geraint Thomas are other potential aggressors who know their way around a cobbled parcours.

I think the long-distance attacker types will be most concerned not with each other, but with the potential for some of the more versatile sprinters to survive to the finish. Peter Sagan is more than capable of handling cobbled roads, and he is the first pick of the fast men who might be able to hold on for a sprint finish. He has finished in the Top 6 of every cobbled classic on the WorldTour calendar already in his young career. His biggest challenge in his spring campaigns has been the particularly long races, and he won’t have to worry about that here. He’s also capable of putting in a solo move of his own. I think he will have an excellent chance to pick up his first 2014 Tour de France victory on Stage 5.

John Degenkolb, winner of this year’s Gent-Wevelgem and 2nd in Paris-Roubaix, will also have his sights set on this stage victory. If he can get those sorts of results in the more difficult spring races, he should have a great opportunity for more success here. Given the parcours, Giant-Shimano should back his ambitions over Marcel Kittel‘s on Stage 5, and that bodes well for Degenkolb’s chances. He has looked very fast all year, and although he didn’t win any stages in the recent Tour of California, he was inches away from besting Mark Cavendish twice. If he can stay at the front of affairs and if this stage does come down to a sprint, that sort of speed will make Degenkolb a top contender.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, constantly among the top sprinters in the spring in the past two years, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare, 2nd at the 2014 edition of Gent-Wevelgem, could also be there at the end. Both showed off excellent speed in the Stage 4 finish behind Marcel Kittel.

IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler isn’t the rider he once was, but he has put up some decent results in the sprints here so far. Garmin’s versatile Ramunas Navardauskas, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, and Trek’s Danny van Poppel will try their best to hold on to the end. OPQS’s Michal Kwiatkowski is always a name worth mentioning on a difficult day that could end in a reduced sprint; his team will be doing their best to keep him as close to the front as possible anyway. It’s not completely out of the question that Andre Greipel hangs on to the line, but it seems unlikely, especially if it rains.

As the battle for stage supremacy rages around them, the lightweight GC riders will be doing their best to stay upright. This is a stage that could end a contender’s yellow jersey hopes in an instant. Whatever happens, Stage 5 should offer plenty of drama. It’s not one to miss.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Fabian Cancellara

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 5, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 8, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Le Touquet-Paris-Plage › Lille – 163.5 km

The Tour de France closed out its visit to England in style, with a sprint finale on The Mall won, somewhat predictably, by Marcel Kittel. Now, the Tour heads home to France. While the locale maybe changing, the profile is staying mostly the same for Stage 4; another flat stage is on tap. Two Cat. 4 climbs, one early in the day and one coming with more than 40 km remaining, are the only categorized uphill challenges on the menu. It is more than likely that the 163.5 km Stage 4 will be another for the sprinters.

Marcel Kittel remains the class of the sprinting bunch. It’s hard for anyone to come close to the young German star, given his deadly combination of being the fastest rider here and having the best leadout train in the race. He won the Tour’s third stage easily and he will be the favorite again for what looks to be an uncomplicated Stage 4.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel was out of position in the Stage 3 finale and, therefore, we still haven’t really had an opportunity to see him matched up against compatriot Kittel at the finish line. Lotto does have a very good leadout but they have not been in the best position when it’s really mattered in the two sprint stages the Tour has offered so far. I still see Greipel as Kittel’s main challenger, though, and if he and his team can get it right for Stage 4, Kittel may actually have some competition on his hands.

Peter Sagan remains my third favorite for the sprints. For whatever reason, a number of observers feel the need to point out on every flat stage that pure sprints aren’t really his thing, which is far from the truth. He may not have the top speed of Kittel or Greipel, but behind those two riders, he is probably the best sprinter here, with plenty of victories on pan flat stages in his career. His versatility seems to make people forget that he is, in fact, elite in the bunch sprints, extremely fast and also adept at positioning himself. Those abilities have allowed him to come in 2nd to Kittel on two of the three stages in this race so far; he was right behind Kittel but well ahead of everyone else in London. Should his German rivals hit misfortune or find themselves out of position, Sagan will have a great opportunity to take a win on Stage 4.

Europcar’s Bryan Coquard now has a pair of 4th places to his name in this Tour de France. He still needs to improve his positioning and he does not have a lot of leadout support, but he is finally starting to deliver on the promise he has been showing at the lower levels.

FDJ’s Arnaud Demare is a very talented sprinter but he is apparently suffering from wrist pain. If he can get back to 100%, he’ll be a top contender again. For all his success this year, Alexander Kristoff has hit misfortune surprisingly often. He was slowed by the crash on Stage 1 and had to expend energy in the third stage to overcome a late mechanical. He has the speed to be considered a strong challenger in the sprints when things go right for him. Mark Renshaw was a very impressive 3rd on The Mall, taking advantage of a rare opportunity to sprint for himself. He benefits from the strong OPQS leadout and should continue to put up nice results on the flat days. Trek’s Danny van Poppel, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Movistar’s JJ Rojas will again hope to play spoiler to the bigger favorites, and Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb remains an excellent alternative for his team in the event that Kittel hits trouble along the way to the finish.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 4, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 7, 2014