A pancake-flat Stage 3 will be a welcome change for the peloton after a day of challenging climbs that dropped the big name sprinters early and allowed Vincenzo Nibali to attack a tired lead group in the final kilometer for the stage win. On the third day of the Tour de France, the peloton travels from Cambridge to London without a single categorized climb on the menu, and at 155 kilometers, it’s won’t be a particularly long ride either. While the motivation to get out in front of the pack for some TV time will be very high on the Tour’s final day in England, anything but a sprint finish on this profile would be a big surprise. Still, after the race enters London, things get a bit technical on the way to the finishing straight on The Mall; there is a pair of right-hand turns within the final kilometer where things could get hectic. The fight to get positioned for the closing moments of Stage 3 will be fierce, and anyone with hopes of winning this stage will have to brave a dangerous stretch at the head of the pack at the end of the day.
With Mark Cavendish out of the race following his opening stage crash, Marcel Kittel‘s hold on the title of sprinter favorite becomes that much stronger. His leadout train took their time to get set up on Stage 1, but when it mattered they put Kittel at the front and in position win the day. With that leadout, and his elite ability and form, he is the man to beat on Stage 3. Unfortunately, the carnage on Day 1 robbed us of the opportunity to see Kittel matched up at full speed against the rider who is his only likely rival in this type of stage, Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel. Though the aforementioned crash in Harrogate did not bring Greipel down, it did slow him enough to take him out of contention. He has another chance here. He has certainly looked strong in the past few weeks, taking the German National Championship against Kittel’s teammate Degenkolb, but beating Kittel himself will be a tall order. If anyone can do it, however, it’s Andre Greipel; behind the two German stars there is a clear dropoff in sprinting ability to the next few contenders.
Nevertheless, anything can happen with this technical finish, and there are several other fast men who will be gunning for this one just as hard as the two favorites. Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is obviously one of those contenders. He was a strong 2nd to Kittel on the opening stage, and after allowing a great opportunity for a victory to get away from him in the final moments of Stage 2, he will be hungry for another shot at a win, and certainly for more Green Jersey points, here on Stage 3. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has looked impressive at both the finish line and in the intermediate sprints so far, and he will look for more success here. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare and Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff should place highly. Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, Lampre’s Maximiliano Richeze (Sacha Modolo has unfortunately abandoned the race with a fever), and AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin will hope to get into the mix. As usual, Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb will become a strong contender if anything should happen to team leader Marcel Kittel. Omega Pharma-Quick Step is in an interesting situation: they still have an excellent leadout even though they are missing their top sprinter. Whomever they decide to put forward for the sprint, Alessandro Petacchi or Mark Renshaw, or even Matteo Trentin or Michal Kwiatkowski, he will have a strong support squad in the Stage 3 finale.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan
After a chaotic finale that saw Mark Cavendish and Simon Gerrans hit the deck very hard and Marcel Kittel ride on to win the day, the opening stage of the 2014 Tour de France is officially in the books. The excitement should continue on Stage 2, and hopefully for more positive reasons. As wild as the finish to the first stage was, for most of the day the riding was pretty tame, as a flat profile led to a mostly controlled journey, but things will be quite different on the second stage. Undulating is too gentle a word for the profile. With seven categorized climbs in the final 90 kilometers, all of them at 6% or greater, and a few uncategorized ascents climb to boot, Stage 2 has the look of an Ardennes Classic. The last four categorized ascents come in quick succession, closing out with the Jenkin Road climb with just 5 kilometers remaining. It is only 800 meters long but at a wicked 10.8% average grade. The barrage of late uphill tests are sure to inspire attacks. And while it obviously isn’t as long as Liege-Bastogne-Liege, it is the second longest stage in the first two weeks of the race at 201 kilometers; anyone still searching for Grand Tour form could get worn down and found out early. The high mountains may still be a ways off, but Stage 2’s journey from York to Sheffield should offer plenty of fireworks.
Given the profile, it seems likely that the stage will come down to either a late attack, or a sprint among the day’s survivors. As early as it is in the Tour de France, the former will be hard-earned, as the GC squads will be determined to deny any opportunists a chance to get ahead. However things play out, the explosive, well-rounded types with the versatility to win either in a late move or from a reduced sprint will be the favorites for victory.
Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will be the top favorite for Stage 2. Unlike most of his sprinting rivals, he should be able to handle the constant up-and-down, and he has the ability to win the day with an aggressive strike or from a sprint. This stage looks made for his versatile array of talents, and he proved in the Tour de Suisse and again in the first stage that he’s on excellent all-around form right now.
Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans is another top contender, for many of the same reasons, with the biggest question mark being his health following his crash. The 2014 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner relishes a profile like this, with plenty of opportunities to attack, or at least to whittle down the pack. An excellent puncheur, he will be one of the most dangerous men in the peloton if he does decide to make a late move, but don’t underestimate his sprint either: he actually defeated Sagan in a reduced sprint in the 2013 Tour de France. Unfortunately, his hard fall near the Harrogate finish line will cloud his chances for Stage 2; it’s hard to know how well he will feel after such a bad crash. Teammate Michael Albasini could be another option, especially as a card to play on the late climbs.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, one of the most successful Ardennes riders of his generation, is an obvious choice here; for him, motivation could be the determining factor. While he, too, could contend for Stage 2 in a variety of ways, he may be more concerned with staying safe for GC. If he does decide to get into the mix, he will be a strong candidate for victory.
Behind Gerrans and Valverde at Liege-Bastogne-Liege was Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step. He has all the tools for success, but his form is questionable right now. If he’s feeling good, he will be a contender. GC riders other than Valverde and Kwiatkowski who could find themselves among the favorites if the pack really starts to thin out include Bauke Mollema and Rui Costa.
The difficult profile, and the likelihood of an animated race, will probably be too much for “pure” sprinters Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. (Mark Cavendish may be out of the race with a shoulder injury after his crash; even if he makes the start it seems unlikely that he’ll be capable of contending). Obviously if one of the big sprinters is there at the finish, he will be a favorite, but it will be a big ask. Kittel’s teammate John Degenkolb, however, leads a select group of non-Sagan sprinters who at least have a chance of surviving the difficult day. Also in this group are Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare and, to a lesser extent, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff and Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo. I wouldn’t really call him a sprinter, but fast-finishing Ramunas Navardauskas (3rd on the opening stage) could excel in a reduced sprint as well.
Quite a few riders stand out as potential protagonists for late attacks. Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler, and, if he is feeling up to it, Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez will like the short, steep challenges that Stage 2 has to offer. Fabian Cancellara, Sylvain Chavanel, Greg Van Avermaet, Jan Bakelants, and Geraint Thomas are all strong soloists with the climbing legs to put in a long distance strike.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Peter Sagan | 2. Simon Gerrans | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski
The long wait for the Grand Départ of the 2014 Tour de France is over, and that means it’s time for the Stage 1 Preview as well! In case you missed the overall race preview, you can find it here. As a note: I’ll be previewing every stage of the race, all the way to the Champs-Élysées, so you can check back every day for stage profiles and picks. You can also follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis during the race.
The opening stage of the 101st Tour is a mostly flat trip through Yorkshire. The peloton will take on a Category 4 climb and then a pair of Cat. 3s in the middle of the stage, but the bumps in the road aren’t likely to trouble anyone. 50 kilometers of generally flat roads lead into the finish, practically guaranteeing that this will be a stage for the sprinters. There is a roundabout with around 2 kilometers to go, but after that it’s a pretty straight shot to the line, meaning that the fast men will be truly flying in the final few moments. Though the high speed run-in to the finish will make it hard to tell that the riders are on a slope, the road does kick uphill a bit over the last kilometer.
The Tour de France quite often starts with a time trial, essentially denying the sprinters any opportunity to wear the yellow jersey during the race, but when things kick off with a mass-start road stage instead, the competition for a day in the sport’s most recognizable piece of clothing is fierce. The opening few days of a Grand Tour are already frenzied enough, and with riders going all out for the maillot jaune while they still have a shot, it could get hectic out there.
Given the profile, it seems likely that this stage and the coveted prize on offer will come down to a shootout between the sport’s three fastest sprinters: Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel, Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Mark Cavendish, and Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel.
I see Kittel and Cavendish as neck and neck on this one, with Greipel close behind. Kittel’s performance in last year’s Tour de France established him as sprinting’s new top man, and he’s followed up with some nice victories this year. He was head and shoulders above the competition in the Giro d’Italia before abandoning with illness. Of particular interest in his limited time in that race was his Stage 3 victory, in which he closed a ridiculous gap in the final hundred meters to overcome a serious positioning deficit and take the win. It showed just how strong he is this year even when things don’t really go as planned for his team; that strength is all the more fearsome when Giant-Shimano’s awesome leadout squad hits their mark, and they usually do. Koen de Kort, Tom Veelers, Roy Curvers, and the extremely-fast John Degenkolb make for a stellar train, and they all work very well together. In what is likely to be a very high speed finale, Kittel will be hard to beat on Stage 1.
Mark Cavendish will be going full gas to win this stage and the yellow jersey on British roads, and he is Kittel’s chief opponent. On paper, his leadout should be quite strong, but they haven’t really put it all together yet this year. Still, Cav has taken several nice wins this season to show that he’s on form, and unlike last year, there will be no question of post-Giro fatigue. I’m not sure his top-end speed matches Kittel’s but the slight uphill gradient may be more favorable to the Manx Missile, who is considerably lighter than his chief rival. Motivation will also be sky-high. These two should be neck and neck.
I think Andre Greipel’s chances are being a bit underrated by the bookies. Like Kittel, he benefits from a leadout that usually delivers him to the finish-line with machine-like precision. He will also be coming into this race with the confidence of having just won the German National Road Race Championship and a host of other victories all year. And despite his massive legs, Greipel has shown that he can succeed even on slight uphill gradients in the final few hundred meters. He should be a real contender for Stage 1.
After Stages 1 and 3, we should have a better idea of which of the big three is fastest right now, but until then, it’s hard to name a favorite of them with much certainty. There will also be a few other names in the mix, and given the increased likelihood for crashes on a hectic opening stage sprint, outsiders could find themselves battling for the win at a moment’s notice. Cannondale’s Peter Sagan generally seems locked in for the Top 5 on these sorts of stages but rarely actually contests the victory when Kittel, Cavendish, and Greipel are involved; however, the somewhat uphill finish will suit him nicely and it could give him an edge. The same is true for FDJ’s Arnaud Demare, who is on fire right now. It’s possible that Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb finds himself sprinting for the victory (if something happens to Kittel, or if, for whatever reason, his team decides to back him instead), and in that scenario, Degenkolb will be very dangerous here as well. Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo took his first WorldTour win in the Tour de Suisse last month and this finish suits him perfectly. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Movistar’s JJ Rojas will be fringe contenders. Michael Matthews, unfortunately, suffered a training crash this week and his Tour start is now in doubt. Even if he does make the start, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to be in the mix while still recovering; however, Orica-GreenEdge teammate Simon Gerrans could try his luck with this finish.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Andre Greipel
After months of buildup and weeks of tune-up races, the main event is upon us. We’ve gone a few days without any WorldTour racing (though hopefully you have had a chance to enjoy the VeloHuman Up-and-comer Q&A Series in the meantime), but the 2014 Tour de France finally kicks off in Leeds on Saturday, July 5th. As usual, in addition to the overall preview, VeloHuman will be previewing every stage of the race. You can find all of those stage previews here. Also, you can follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the Tour.
The Route
The route of this year’s Tour de France is an intriguing one: in keeping with recent editions, the 101st Tour de France waits a full week to throw any serious mountains at the peloton, but there are some real challenges on the menu before the road reaches high altitudes. The first stage of the race is a mostly flat affair through Yorkshire that is likely to end in a sprint. The second stage may not have high mountains, but with nine categorized climbs on the docket, including an 800 meter, 10.8% bump just 5 kilometers before the finish line, it should be a thrillfest, and the GC contenders will need to be alert. Stage 3, the Tour’s last day in England, is another likely day for the sprinters, and the also mostly flat Stage 4 will probably end in the same way. Stage 5, however, will be one of the most intriguing of this year’s Tour de France.
Nine cobbled sections will pose a tough challenge to the lightweight GC contenders on Stage 5.
To add excitement to the 101st edition of the race, the organizers added a cobbled stage that will travel over some of the same challenging terrain that features in spring’s Paris-Roubaix. The Tour stage isn’t as long as the Monument Classic, but the route travels over sections of the Carrefour and Mons-en-Pévèle and plenty of other difficult sectors, and the bumpy roads could bounce the lightweight GC types all over the road. It will be a white-knuckle ride all the way to the finish, and attacks will be coming hot and heavy from classics specialists given the rare chance to shine on their favored terrain in the Tour de France.
Stage 6 is flat enough to be a likely sprinters’ target. Stage 7 is mostly flat as well, but a few late bumps could put the heavier sprinters under pressure. The peloton finally hits a real uphill finish on Stage 8, though time gaps should be small, as the closing climb up the Gerardmer is less than 2 kilometers long. Stage 9 includes some tough climbs, including a Cat. 1 ascent; it could be a day for the breakaway or for the versatile fast-finisher types, with a mostly flat final 20 kilometers, but GC attacks aren’t out of the question. However, the overall contenders may opt to save energy for Stage 10, which will throw tough ascents at the peloton all day long.
Stage 10 will be a roller coaster ride of tough climbs and difficult descents, offering plenty of opportunities for attacks to go free.
At 161.5 kilometers, Stage 10 is not particularly long, but four Cat. 1 climbs and a few smaller ascents stand between the riders and the finish line. For most of the day, the riders will be facing tough climbing or tricky descending, and that is likely to encourage aggressive riding, especially with a rest day to follow. After the day off, Stage 11 is a bumpy one but it probably won’t have GC implications. The same is true for Stage 12.
The Tour heads to the Alps for its first real high mountain test on Stage 13. An HC-rated finish awaits. Stage 14 will not offer respite, starting with a very long Cat. 1, followed by the 19 kilometer, 6% average grade Hors Categorie climb up the Col d’Izoard, and then ending with a Cat. 1 climb to Risoul. The peloton will be glad for the flat day on Stage 15, as well as the rest day that follows.
On Stage 18, the final mountain stage of the 2014 Tour de France, the riders must overcome both the Col du Tourmalet and a Hautacam summit finish.
Stage 16 is the first of three days in the Pyrenees, and will challenge the riders with a late HC-rated climb followed by a little over 20 kilometers downhill to the finish line. Stage 17 is tougher, with three Cat. 1 climbs on the way to an Hors Categorie summit finish. Stage 18 will be the last chance for the climbers to pick up time, and what a chance it will be: the pack will climb the fearsome Col du Tourmalet, zoom down the other side, and then ascend to Hautacam and the finish line.
Stage 20’s race against the clock is a very long one at 54 kilometers. Gaps between the GC riders will be significant.
A mostly flat Stage 19 will allow the GC contenders to recharge before taking on the decisive time trial on Stage 20. It’s a long one at 54 kilometers, and it could seriously shake up the General Classification. The parcours is hilly, which will offer some consolation to the climbers, but riders with big engines will have the advantage over this distance. The GC will be decided as the last rider crosses the line on Stage 20, with the classic Champs-Élysées sprint on tap for the twenty-first and final stage of the race.
All told, this year’s route may seem a bit more climber-friendly than those of recent years, but a cobbled stage and a long time trial at the end of three tough weeks of racing will make a well-rounded skillset a requirement for victory. And although the high mountains don’t come until the middle stages of the Tour de France, some early challenges will keep everyone on their toes from the beginning of the race. It should be a thrilling ride all the way from Leeds to Paris.
The General Classification Contenders
The Tour de France is a long race, and the mountains and cobbles along the journey could shake things up at a moment’s notice, but in terms of the yellow jersey fight, there are two competitors who stand out as the clear favorites. Team Sky’s Chris Froome and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador are a cut above their opponents, climbing and time trialing in a league of their own and with powerful teams backing their bids for yellow. Between them however, things are very tight.
Froome was dominant in last year’s Tour de France, and his convincing victory came after a dominant spring that saw him establish his supremacy across several races. Meanwhile, would-be top rival Alberto Contador never seemed to find his top level in the run-up to the 2013 Tour, and he was unable to get to that level during the race either. At least so far, 2014 has been a different story entirely. Alberto Contador has been the best GC rider in the sport, winning races like Tirreno-Adriatico (where he put his uphill wizardry on full display) and the Vuelta al Pais Vasco (where he flashed stellar chrono form) and carrying that good shape through June’s Criterium du Dauphine. He is a proven winner of the Tour de France who seems to have refound the ability he lacked in 2013. Meanwhile, Chris Froome has struggled to overcome hurdle after hurdle, as injury and illness have waylaid his plans throughout the year. That isn’t to say that he hasn’t flashed his brilliance here and there; he took victory in the Tour de Romandie and looked very sharp in the Dauphine prior to a crash. Still, compared to last year’s bulletproof campaign, this year has been a difficult one for the defending champion, which makes his grip on the title of pre-race favorite a more tenuous one.
If forced to pick a favorite, I’d still name Chris Froome (though I believe that his edge is razor-thin). The ability he has shown over the past year when at peak form is just impossible to ignore, and he has displayed enough strength when healthy in 2014 to at least maintain his position as pre-race favorite. He was clearly the better rider last year, and while his inability to dominate the early season this year raises questions, his many ailments have certainly played their part in slowing him down, and he appears healthy now. Richie Porte and Mikel Nieve are top-notch teammates for the climbs who could find themselves lurking at the fringes of the Top 10 in their own right, and Geraint Thomas and Vasil Kiryienka are powerful pace-setters on the hilly and flat days. Contador’s bid for victory, meanwhile, took a serious hit this past week when it was announced that star teammate Roman Kreuziger would not be riding in the Tour due to an ongoing investigaton into biological passport irregularities. Contador will no longer be able to enjoy the luxury of having last year’s 5th place overall finisher at his side. Replacement Rafal Majka is obviously also very talented but he will likely be fatigued after a hard Giro. Mick Rogers and Nicolas Roche, though excellent support riders, are also coming off the same tough Giro. In short, despite Contador’s stellar season, he will still have something to prove against the defending champion; regardless, I’ll reiterate that this should be a close fight and it’s extremely tough to call between these two stars right now.
Behind them is a pair of second-tier favorites who are themselves on a level above the rest of the GC hopefuls: Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali and Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde look to be the top contenders after Froome and Contador, and though victory will be a tall order for either of them, they should at least be seen as heavy favorites to fight it out for the final spot on the podium. Nibali had a brilliant 2013 campaign, winning the Giro d’Italia convincingly and taking runner-up honors in the Vuelta a España, but he has been unable to find as much success in stage races this year. Still, he proved in 2013 that at peak form he is one of the top climbers in the world, and a great descender and a master tactician to boot. He’ll have two weeks to ride himself into Grand Tour form, and it’s not as if 5th in the Tour de Romandie and 7th in the Dauphine are bad results, per se. And remember, Joaquim Rodriguez looked way off the pace in the 2013 Dauphine, finishing 16th, and went on to a Tour de France podium. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Nibali gets back to the top level before the race hits the mountains. Victory in the Italian road race championship was a good sign. This event is the focus of his season, and I expect him to be in his best shape of the year when the Tour gets into the mountains, and if he can reach his 2013 form, he could find himself battling Froome and Contador at the very top. He’ll also have one of the race’s finest teams backing him, with constant lieutenant and Top 10 finisher (and legitimate threat for a repeat Top 10) Jakob Fuglsang, veteran Michele Scarponi, and versatile Tanel Kangert at his side.
Alejandro Valverde, unlike Vincenzo Nibali, has been landing top results left and right all year. This is probably his last year as Movistar’s featured rider for the Tour, so motivation is high. Perhaps the one question mark in his stellar 2014 resume is the lack of recent results in top-level stage races. He eschewed the Dauphine and the Suisse in the run-up to the Tour, opting for the Route du Sud instead. He was strong there, but it’s hard to judge his form based on that race, given the lower level of competition. He was strong in Pais Vasco, but that was in April. It will be interesting to see how he goes in the Tour de France after well over two months away from WorldTour competition. With Ion Izagirre and the excellent Beñat Intxausti for support, he will have plenty of help, and his Spanish national championship-winning time trial form should come in handy as well. Given the sort of peak ability he has shown over the last few years, his strong team, and his knack for success in 2014, I expect him to be one of the last men standing as Froome and Contador ratchet up the pace on the steep climbs.
Garmin’s Andrew Talansky was already worthy of inclusion in the Top 10 conversation after landing 10th in last year’s Tour, but he solidified his presence in the discussion of outside contenders with his stellar Criterium du Dauphine. Though it may be tempting to write off his victory in that race to tactics alone, he would not have been in position to win the GC with his long-distance attack had he not put in strong performances throughout the race; he was sitting in 3rd place on GC before his daring move. Talansky has steadily improved as a climber over the past few years, and Garmin sends a great support squad to back his bid for the overall, with strong climber Janier Acevedo to help set the pace uphill and a number of other excellent teammates who thrive on the hilly days. Compatriot Tejay van Garderen will also be hunting a strong overall result, and he, too, is armed with ever-improving climbing skills. After a disappointing 2013 in which he seemed to take a step backward, he kicked off 2014 with renewed vigor. He was stellar in Catalunya, winning a mountain stage ahead of Contador, Purito, Froome, and others, and finishing 3rd overall on GC. However, a crash in the Tour de Romandie left him with a small hip fracture, which forced him to abandon that race and clearly slowed him in the Dauphine. Still, he certainly looked to be rounding into form as the Dauphine progressed and he has a dedicated BMC team backing him for a good GC result.
Belkin’s Bauke Mollema got off to a slow start in 2014, but he was climbing very well in the Tour de Suisse, and appears to be finding form just in time for his season’s biggest target. Given Belkin’s sponsorship woes, motivation is high, and Mollema should have it in him to fight for a strong GC result. Teammate Laurens Ten Dam is a valuable second.
Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen van den Broeck spent all of 2013 and much of this season hunting the form that put him into 4th place in the Tour de France in 2010 and 2012, and until June’s Criterium de Dauphine, he did not have much to show for his efforts. But his 3rd place in the Dauphine, earned with some top-notch climbing performances, put him right back into the Top 10 discussion, given the ability he has shown in the past. He won’t have much team support, but the parcours is in his favor, with only a single time trial stage. Like so many other outside contenders, he may find the podium a very difficult goal, but a Top 10 is within his reach.
A Top 10 may be well within the reach of World Champion Rui Costa as well, though it’s hard to know what to expect out of the talented Portuguese all-rounder given that this is his first time as a GC team leader in the Tour de France. Signs point to stellar form right now after his brilliant Tour de Suisse victory (and a host of other strong results this season that may have been overlooked in all the attention given to his lack of actual victories in the rainbow jersey). Of particular interest was his terrific time trial performance in the Suisse, where he was third to specialists Tony Martin and Tom Dumoulin in that race’s 24.7 km time trial seventh stage. Whether he has the consistency required to land a top GC result in a three-week race is unclear, but he certainly has all the tools to make him a good candidate. 2013 Vuelta winner Chris Horner makes for a stellar second, though his form is an unknown right now.
FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has not been having an excellent season results-wise, but he has not been bad either, with Top 10s in Pais Vasco, Romandie, and the Bayern Rundfahrt. He was a bit under the weather in the Tour de Suisse and never really mounted much of a challenge in that race, but he did put in a strong time trial on a parcours that did not seem to suit him. It was actually one of a number of strong chrono performances from the climbing star this year, and if he has indeed found an extra gear against the clock (and if he can get back to his peak form by the time the Tour hits the mountains), he’ll be a dangerous outsider.
AG2R’s Romain Bardet has continued to deliver impressive results in his young career, with several Top 10s in big races already in 2014. He’ll appreciate the hilly parcours. Teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud has had a very strong season so far and will be looking forward to the race after crashing out of last year’s edition while looking well-positioned for a strong result. 2013 Alpe d’Huez stage winner Christophe Riblon makes for yet another strong all-rounder for AG2R. Fellow French stars Thomas Voeckler and Pierre Rolland of Europcar at least deserve a mention, but they may be chasing stage wins, with Voeckler generally unimpressive this year and Rolland coming off the Giro d’Italia (he was terrific in that race, but hunting for a strong result in the Tour de France GC after the Giro is probably too much to ask). Speaking of Giro participation and stage hunting, Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez is on the startlist, but he has said that he is purely here for stage wins and as preparation for the Vuelta, as he is still recovering from his Giro crash. Earlier in the season there was talk of teammate Simon Spilak having support as a GC rider but Katusha seems to be more focused on stage wins now; Spilak won a stage in the Dauphine but he was a non-factor in the GC. He’s very talented but he has yet to make much of a run at Grand Tour GC success; Yuri Trofimov may be Katusha’s designated GC rider instead. Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step was one of the spring’s biggest stars, but he took a break from racing following the Tour de Romandie and since then he has not apperaed to be at the same level that he was at in March and April. However, the Polish rising star is a tough competitor and this is a big target of his season, so it would not be a surprise to see him back to top form by the time the GC race heats up. He’ll hope to improve on his 11th place in last year’s race. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank has delivered quite a few excellent performances in his first year with his new team and he is sporting an improved time trial this season. He’ll look for continued success here. Leopold Konig leads the GC charge for fellow wildcard invite NetApp-Endura. He was excellent in the 2013 Vuelta a España, landing in the Top 10 and winning a stage, but injury has hampered his 2014 campaign. He appeared to be rounding into form at the Dauphine, however, and his team has selected a Tour squad dedicated to his GC hopes (leaving VH Up-and-comer Q&A Series interviewee Sam Bennett off the startlist). A Top 10 is within Konig’s reach. Also on the fringes of GC contention are Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae and Trek’s Haimar Zubeldia and Frank Schleck (Andy appears to be riding in support of them).
The Stagehunters
As usual, the caliber of stagehunters in the Tour de France is very high, especially among the sprinters. With at least seven days very likely to end in bunch sprints, the sport’s elite sprinting trio of Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and Andre Greipel are in attendance. All of them have had success this year, but they have not faced each other on many occasions, meaning that the battle for sprint supremacy is very much up in the air.
With his four victories in 2013, Marcel Kittel established himself as the fastest sprinter in that year’s Tour, and his dominance in the first two stages of this year’s Giro d’Italia (before he pulled out of the race with illness) suggest that he has not slacked off in 2014. His top-speed is otherworldly and he also has a nearly unbeatable leadout train. I think he is the best of the three right now.
OPQS’s Mark Cavendish has won some nice victories this year all over the map, and was head and shoulders above his competition in the recent Tour de Suisse on Stage 4, the one chance he had to sprint for victory (a crash derailed his bid for glory on Stage 5). His leadout, despite the additions of Mark Renshaw and Alessandro Petacchi, has not been as strong as he would have hoped, but there is plenty of talent there and they could put it together for the Tour. What’s more, last year’s “disappointment” (two stage wins is a disappointment when you are Mark Cavendish) came after he had raced a difficult Giro d’Italia, and this year, he skipped that Grand Tour in favor of shorter races. Perhaps with fewer race miles, he’ll be better prepared to take on his rivals.
Andre Greipel has had quite a year, racking up victory after victory since January’s Tour Down Under. Having just won another German Nationals title, as well as stages in each of the last four races he has undertaken, Greipel is obviously on great form. Lotto’s leadout team is a good one. Still, Greipel is probably the third of the trio right now. As much success as he has had this year, he has mostly been facing lower-level competition recently and I’m not sure how well his dominance against that competition will carry into the biggest race of the year. However, he is still a member of that elite trio, well above the rest of the sprinting pack, and picking up a few victories is a reasonable goal for the German.
Even with the dominance of this select trio of sprinters, however, the battle for the green jersey is still likely to come down to Peter Sagan, who can hunt for victories in the Tour’s many hilly stages and reliably expect Top 10s in the flat ones. As he consistently racks up very high placings, the triumvirate of top sprinters will be fighting amongst themselves for victories on the very flat stages, and not even contesting some of the hillier days that Peter Sagan is targeting. The convincing winner of the Tour de Suisse points competition, Sagan is firing on all cylinders right now and it’s hard to see past him in any stage likely to end in a reduced bunch sprint. Cannondale teammate Elia Viviani appears to be here in a support capacity.
Michael Matthews figures to offer some competition to Sagan on the tougher days; he showed stunning climbing legs in the Giro d’Italia and, having abandoned that race before it got too mountainous, he should have enough energy in the tank to challenge Sagan on the hilly stages. Marcel Kittel’s teammate John Degenkolb isn’t as good a climber as Matthews or Sagan but he could be there on some of the tougher days, too. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare is ready to prove that he, not Nacer Bouhanni, is the best sprinter on his team, and he’ll have an eye on the sprints that follow more difficult stages as well. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is especially adept at sprints that follow grueling days in the saddle: the cobbled fifth stage could be a good opportunity to shine against some of these other names. This Tour de France will also be a rare opportunity for him to sprint with the support of a dedicated team, meaning that he may also surprise even on the less demanding stages.
Lampre’s Sacha Modolo has been knocking at the door of his first WorldTour victory for a while and he finally got it in the Tour de Suisse; he’s on excellent form right now and is a nice outside candidate in the sprints. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has been extremely successful hunting victories in lower level French races this year; with a little luck he could be in the mix. Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Morkov and Daniele Bennati, and Cofidis’s Adrien Petit and versatile Julien Simon are other outside contenders for the sprints who will hope to play spoiler to the heavier favorites.
Punchy types who will look to get into the mix on the hillier stages include 2013 stage winner and 2014 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner Simon Gerrans of Orica-GreenEdge and his on-form teammate Michael Albasini, Garmin’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lotto Belsol’s Tony Gallopin, OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, and Europcar’s Cyril Gautier. As mentioned before, Joaquim Rodriguez considers himself purely a stagehunter in this race, making him a very likely aggressor in the later mountain stages of the Tour. We won’t know which big-time climbers abandon failed GC bids to hunt stage wins until the leaderboard starts to take shape in the middle of the race, but Purito is sure to be among the most prominent of the riders looking for mountaintop victories from the breakaway in the Tour’s final week.
Garmin’s Ramunas Navardauskas, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, Sky’s Geraint Thomas, OPQS’s Niki Terpstra, Belkin’s Lars Boom and Sep Vanmarcke, and, of course, Trek’s Jens Voigt and Fabian Cancellara are just a few of the names that stand out as likely long distance protagonists; for many of them, the cobbles of Stage 5 are a major target. Cancellara is also likely to be one of the main contenders in the Tour’s lone time trial, where he will face off against the GC heavyweights and other chrono specialists like World Champ Tony Martin and Giant-Shimano up-and-comer Tom Dumoulin.
VeloHuman Favorites
General Classification
Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali Other Top Contenders: Alejandro Valverde, Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky, Bauke Mollema, Jurgen van den Broeck, Rui Costa, Thibaut Pinot
Points Classification
Winner: Peter Sagan
I will be previewing every stage of the 2014 Tour de France here at VeloHuman.com, so make sure to bookmark the page! VH will bring you stage profiles, favorites, and outsiders for every day of racing. You can check out the Stage 1 Preview here. There will be plenty more commentary and analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. If you’re the type who can’t get enough cycling talk, you’ll be glad you followed! Hope to see you soon.
-Dane Cash
Photos by Damien, jvanattenhoven, Alain Stoll, and Harald.
As the Criterium du Dauphine is heading towards its conclusion, the second major Tour de France tuneup race kicks off Saturday: the Tour de Suisse. Much like its French cousin, the Suisse features a diverse array of challenges, with time trials, sprinters’ days, hilly stages, and mountaintop finishes. The good mix of profiles draws an impressive startlist of riders, many of whom are using the nine-day event to perfect their form leading into July’s main event.
While the biggest GC names of the Tour de France have preferred to use the Dauphine as their warmup of choice in recent years, the Suisse has drawn some major protagonists as well. Current rainbow jersey wearer Rui Costa is the defending champion; he followed up on his 2013 Suisse with a pair of stage wins in the Tour. Meanwhile, Peter Sagan has won the Points Classification of the Tour de Suisse prior to both of his Green Jerseys in the Tour de France. Costa and Sagan are on a long list of returning riders likely to feature again. As a note: most of the big names on the provisional startlist look set to go, but the official startlist is not completely finalized at this point, so keep an eye out for late additions and subtractions.
The Route
The 78th Tour de Suisse begins with a 9.4 kilometer time trial. While short, it involves a tough climb and a tricky descent, so it’s not going to be as simple or as speedy as last year’s mostly flat out-and-back prologue. Stage 2 has some tough climbs (two HC-rated mountains and then a Cat. 2) in the middle of the day, followed by a late Category 2, but a downhill and then flat final 21 kilometers could limit GC action. The third stage has some bumps along the way and an uncategorized uphill finish. Stage 4 and Stage 5 are mostly flat days likely for the sprinters.
Stage 9: Martigny › Saas-Fee (156.5 km) – A challenging climb closes out the final stage of the Tour de Suisse, ensuring that the GC battle will go all the way down to the wire.
Stage 6 has a late climb that could inspire punchy riders to make moves. A 24.7 kilometer time trial on Stage 7 will have major GC implications. It does have a few bumps to offer some consolation to the pure climbers, but it’s a far cry from the hill climb chrono that finished the 2013 TdS. The uphill specialists will look forward to the following two days. A Hors Categorie ascent to Verbier closes out Stage 8. Stage 9 will guarantee an open fight for GC to the final meters of the Tour de Suisse: it’s a short one at 156.5 km, but the profile will challenge the peloton with a Cat. 1, a Cat. 2, another Cat. 1, and then an HC-rated summit finish where the Tour de Suisse will crown its overall victor.
The General Classification Contenders
Lampre’s Rui Costa has won the past two editions of the Tour de Suisse. This is a race that he knows how to win, and a stage on which he loves to shine. His very versatile array of skills (climbing legs, a fair bit of punch, and an underrated time trial) are well-suited to varied profiles of the weeklong event. He showed excellent form this year in Switzerland’s other major stage race, the Tour de Romandie, where he was 3rd behind Chris Froome and Simon Spilak. Riding as his team’s main option in the upcoming Tour de France for the first time, Costa will be eager to put his talents on display. He will also be eager to pick up his first win in the rainbow jersey, and this may be his best chance all year.
Belkin’s Bauke Mollema was runner-up and a stage winner in 2013 and he will be hunting continued success this year. He, too, sports a very strong combination of talents that will keep him comfortable in both the hills and the high mountains of the race. Belkin sends an excellent squad to support his amibitions, with climbing expert Laurens Ten Dam to play the role of second. Mollema has all the tools to contend for the overall victory in the 2014 Tour de Suisse.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger rounded out the 2013 podium (and he actually won this race back in 2008) and he will again have a shot at a good result this year. Kreuziger is Alberto Contador’s top lieutenant in the Tour de France, but at the TdS he has the chance to ride for his own ambitions, and he will be an excellent bet to achieve his goals, given his well-rounded skillset. Kreuziger had a hot start to the year but has not raced in over a month; however, with Tinkoff-Saxo’s main target approaching, he should be getting back up to top form now.
Sky’s Bradley Wiggins will certainly bring excitement to the race, especially coming off a Tour of California victory, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him. He worked himself down to a GC-oriented weight for his AToC bid, but now that he does not plan on riding in La Grand Boucle, he may refocus his approach to prep himself for time trialing and track goals to come. Obviously, with the motivation and focus, Wiggins is a major contender, but there are enough question marks that I don’t see him as the top favorite he is capable of being. Teammate Dario Cataldo couldn’t quite come away with a victory in the Giro d’Italia but he looked great throughout that race and could feature as a fringe contender with two time trials on the route. It is worth noting that Sky is also sending Sergio Henao to the Tour de Suisse, his first race since an extended break from competition.
FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot should be able to land himself another good result (he was 4th last year). He has shown an improved time trial this year, outperforming expectations in Pais Vasco and Romandie, and the ability to limit his losses in a discipline that troubled him in the past will be critical with this route. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank (5th in 2013) is another rider I expect to see at the very top. He, too, has displayed a more balanced approach in 2014, and he has a knack for success in races that take place in his home nation. He led the 2013 Tour de Suisse into the final day, but ultimately fell several placings with a lackluster performance on the last stage, a hill climb ITT. With that on his mind, and now the sole leader on a new team, Frank is likely to be a major protagonist.
BMC’s Cadel Evans and AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo are both only a few days removed from the Giro d’Italia. Wilco Kelderman has shown in the Dauphine that it’s possible to carry that Grand Tour form even into the middle of June, but it won’t be easy. Evans was fading as the Giro drew to a close, so it will be a big ask for him to continue to perform at a high level here. Pozzovivo battled illness in the Giro’s final week, but he maintained his strong performance through the last days of the race, and he may have more in the tank. Christophe Riblon makes for another excellent option for AG2R. The climbing expert (and Alpe d’Huez winner) showed an improved time trial in last year’s Tour de Pologne, and he’ll be motivated to perform leading into the Tour de France. Carlos Betancur was supposed to ride this race, but recent news suggests that he is skipping the Suisse, and possibly even the Tour de France.
Movistar’s Ion Izagirre is a vastly underrated GC performer who has flashed strong chrono chops to complement his excellent climbing skills recently. Rarely given the opportunity to ride for his own ambitions, he will have a nice shot at success here. Eros Cappechi is one of a number of strong teammates. Garmin is another very strong all-round squad led by riders who often play lieutenant roles. Rohan Dennis was 2nd only to Bradley Wiggins in the Tour of California. His time trialing prowess is well-known, but he has worked to better himself on the slopes in 2014 and it has really paid off. Teammates Janier Acevedo is a pure climber who will look to light up the late mountain stages, and Tom Danielson may feature in a similar role.
Giant-Shimano’s trio of Warren Barguil, Lawson Craddock, and Tom Dumoulin pack a particularly strong punch. Barguil has the climbing saavy to survive the late climbs. Craddock and Dumoulin are both excellent all-rounders who will look to jump to an early advantage in the time trial. Tony Martin of OPQS will likely be well-placed after that opening chrono as well, and he has decent climbing legs to boot. It wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see him hunting a GC result. Trek’s Schleck brother duo will hope to pick up a decent result; Frank has had something of a resurgence this year. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort, strong in the time trial, could put up a nice performance. MTN-Qhubeka’s Louis Meintjes is a fast-rising, versatile rider who is just coming into his own. His team may surprise some—they have a lot of talent for a variety of scenarios, and Meintjes can hang with the big guns when the road goes up (he was 5th at the Giro del Trentino in April). Orica-GreenEdge’s Johan Chaves is another outsider with a chance for success: he delivered a beautiful Tour of California stage win last month and he will look to make a late move up the GC leaderboard on the HC-rated climbs of the last two stages.
The Stagehunters
A number of elite stagehungers make the start from Bellinzona. Peter Sagan was brilliant in the 2013 edition, shocking everyone by nabbing a victory after surviving a particularly mountainous Stage 3 that even dropped most of the GC contenders, and he will try to defend his Points title in 2014. It won’t be easy. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb, supported by excellent-sprinter-in-his-own-right Luka Mezgec, is on fire in 2014 and has shown an ability to handle some of the tougher peloton-whittling climbs that Sagan also prefers.
Unfortunately for both of them, they’ll have to contend with Mark Cavendish and his elite OPQS leadout squad on the flatter days. Tom Boonen is here for Omega Pharma as well: they mean business in this race. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is another sprinter hoping to make an impression, and for once, he’ll actually have an entire team dedicated to his ambitions in a stage race. He took a stage last year and will be hungry for more. Sky’s Ben Swift gets another chance to shine this season, and he look for the harder days as opportunities to win from a reduced bunch. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo got off to a hot start in 2014 and could find himself returning to success here. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard is a brilliant young talent who could feature. MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and JJ Lobato, Astana’s Andrea Guardini, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, OGE’s Matt Goss, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s in-form Matti Breschel and Michael Morkov are other likely sprint protagonists.
For the very hilly days, look out for Garmin’s Tom Jelte-Slagter, Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert, and OGE’s Michael Albasini, who lit up the Tour de Romandie, to try to take on the GC riders for stage supremacy. Don’t be surprised to see classics powerhouses like Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke, OPQS’s Niki Terpstra and Stijn Vandenbergh, and Trek’s Stijn Devolder and, of course, Fabian Cancellara looking for long distance victories either. Cancellara will also headline (along with Bradley Wiggins and Tony Martin) an elite field of chrono riders for the race’s two stages against the clock. Movistar’s Alex Dowsett and AG2R’s Patrick Gretsch are specialists who will hope to contend with that trio, as well as a number of other aforementioned strong ITT riders, for prestigious wins against elite competition.
VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites
Winner: Rui Costa Podium: Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger Other Top Contenders: Thibaut Pinot, Mathias Frank, Ion Izagirre, Bradley Wiggins, Rohan Dennis, Domenico Pozzovivo, Laurens Ten Dam
I will not be doing daily stage previews here, but follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for stage picks and commentary. And check back soon for some very exciting things to come: Q&As with some of the sport’s up-and-coming young stars and plenty of Tour de France coverage are right around the corner.
As one Grand Tour ends, the run-up to another begins. The Critérium du Dauphiné (I’m hereafter dropping the accents for various Internet-friendly reasons) is one of the most important stage races of the year. It is one of two major tuneup events for July’s Tour de France (the other being the Tour de Suisse). The balanced route of the Dauphine, which includes a time trial, flat stages, hilly stages, and some difficult mountains, offers excellent preparation for the Tour. Many of the likely stars of La Grande Boucle make the start to face off against their major rivals. Bradley Wiggins won in 2012 and Chris Froome was winner in 2013; both went on to win the Tour. With such an elite field and over sixty years of history, the Dauphine is a major event in its own right.
A quick note before I dive in: I’m not previewing individual stages, but I’ll be tweeting stage picks and live analysis, so remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter.
The Route
The 2014 edition of the Criterium du Dauphine wastes no time in kicking off the GC competition, beginning with a 10.4 kilometer individual time trial. It’s a short test but it includes a Category 4 climb (800 meters at 5.5%). It’s also somewhat technical, its route meandering through winding roads along the banks of the Saône. The distance won’t open up any massive gaps, but it will establish a small early advantage for some GC riders.
Stage 2: Tarare › Pays d’Olliergues-Col du Béal (156 km) – Things turn mountainous quickly with an HC-rated climb to close out the second stage.
Stage 2 guarantees that none of those riders who got out to an early lead on Day 1 can rest on their laurels: the 156 kilometer journey sets out from Tarare and crests five categorized climbs before one final ascent to the finish atop the Hors Categorie Col du Beal. 13.6 km at 6.6%, it’s not the hardest climb in the world but it’s certain to weed out pretenders before the race even enters its third day.
Stages 3 has some bumps, but with a long flat run in to the finish, it is unlikely to shake up the General Classification. Stage 4 rides on many of the same roads as Stage 16 of last year’s Tour de France (won from the break by Rui Costa). There is a challenging climb crested a little over 10km from the finish that might see GC attacks go clear.
Stage 5 is another hilly affair with a pair of Category 2 ascents in the final 50 km. Stage 6 is mostly flat, but it gets bumpy towards the end of the day, with a vicious little climb in the final few kilometers that could prove challenging for the sprinters.
Stage 7: Ville-la-Grand › Finhaut-Emosson (160 km) – There is nowhere to hide on the final climb of the seventh stage, which has sections above 10%.
Stage 7 will pack quite a punch, challenging the riders with the Hors Categorie Col de la Forclaz (12.6 km at an 8.2% average) crested with 18 km to go, and then, after a short descent, another HC-rated climb to finish the day, 10.2 km at an 8% average, with a few extremely steep sections.
Things do not get much easier for Stage 8, which tosses in a pair of Cat. 1s to close out the day, and the Dauphine as a whole. The difficult conclusion ensures that nothing will be decided on GC until the very end of the race.
The overall route does not include any truly grueling ascents, but it is quite hilly, and the many days of ups and downs will certainly wear on the peloton, putting the climbers in the spotlight. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at the line will benefit the faster finishers. This year’s race includes far fewer time trial kilometers than recent editions have, which is likely to open things up a bit after recent domination from the chrono-loving Team Sky.
The General Classification Contenders
The startlist is stacked with talent (and it is important to note that it isn’t completely settled as of this writing), but there are two clear favorites for the overall victory. The first is Sky’s Chris Froome. Even with reduced time trial mileage, Froome is likely to excel in this race, as it is a very important part of his and his team’s program. After injury derailed the first few European races of his season, Froome got back on track in a major way at the Tour de Romandie, where he outclimbed almost everyone else and then won the time trial and with it, the General Classification.
Chris Froome looks to be back in top shape after struggling with injury early in 2014.
The importance of this race to Froome’s 2014 campaign is obvious given the talent his team is sending to back his efforts: constant lieutenant Richie Porte, runner-up in last year’s race, will make the start, an elite talent at all levels who makes a viable second should his team leader suffer misfortune. Porte has had a difficult year as well, but on talent alone he has to be considered a secondary contender for the overall. Geraint Thomas is another all-round talent likely to contribute in a big way (also, watch out for him in the opening ITT). David Lopez and Mikel Nieve are two of Sky’s top mountain domestiques. The British squad is fully committed to winning the Dauphine for the fourth straight time as part of a strong statement in the run-up to Froome’s Tour defense, and with the star finally back from his ailments, it’s hard to see past Sky here.
Alberto Contador of Tinkoff-Saxo is the rider most likely to challenge the Sky juggernaut. Contador has put in some of the finest racing of his life in 2014, winning Tirreno-Adriatico and Pais Vasco and coming in 2nd in Catalunya, climbing at an otherworldly level in every mountain stage. He will have several opportunities to attack on this climber-centric parcours. Few will be able to match him if he has maintained the form he showed at the beginning of the year, though he has not raced for two months, making that a bit of a question mark. Further, in the past, Contador has not focused on this race as heavily as Sky has, and that may be the case again this year; the squad Tinkoff-Saxo sends to support him is not nearly as strong as Chris Froome’s. Chief lieutenant Roman Kreuziger, for instance, will be absent, taking on the Tour de Suisse instead. At Contador’s best and most focused, that might not matter (especially with the very steep Stage 7 on the program), but there are enough concerns that Contador is the second of my two favorites rather than the first.
Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali is third favorite with the bookmakers in this race (just as he is in the upcoming Tour de France), but he enters the Dauphine with a number of question marks. Obviously the aggressive winner of the 2013 Giro (and runner-up of the 2013 Vuelta) is a top climber who will love the profile. He also has an excellent supporting cast. However, he has not had the 2014 that he would have hoped for, starting out very slowly and only really showing flashes of his form in the Tour de Romandie, where he still settled for 5th despite being one of the major favorites. If he has managed to build on his form and has reached that top level he is capable of, he will challenge for the victory, but that is not a given. Astana has the excellent all-rounder Jakob Fuglsang to help in the mountains or to act as an alternative if necessary. He has a knack for finding himself Top 10s even when riding for Nibali.
Katusha’s Simon Spilak has had a very impressive 2014. Always a strong climber, the 27-year-old is coming into his own as a featured rider for his team, soaring to new heights on the slopes but also sporting an improved time trial. He will be the guy for Katusha at the Tour de France, making this an important opportunity for him to make a statement. With the form that won him a stage and 2nd overall in Romandie, Spilak (something of a specialist in these one-week races) is primed to challenge for the victory against the very biggest names in the sport. He’ll also have last year’s 3rd place finisher Daniel Moreno on his side. Though Moreno has just finished a grueling Grand Tour, he can’t be counted out either: Katusha needs to find some results after Purito’s rough exit from the Giro.
Tejay van Garderen was having a very strong 2014 (with a 2nd in the Tour of Oman behind Chris Froome and a stage victory and 3rd overall in Catalunya among his results) before abandoning the Tour de Romandie following a crash. He returned to the USA to recover and is now back in Europe prepping for the Tour, where he will be BMC’s sole leader for the first time. The TvG of years past may have been more of a time trial specialist, which would at first glance make this a less favorable Dauphine than he’s used to, but he was climbing at an elite level early in the year, suggesting a refocused approach. If he’s recovered completely from his crash, he should contend here, especially given recent statements that suggest he is taking this race very seriously.
Fellow American Andrew Talansky has had an okay 2014. He landed in the Top 10 in Catalunya and looked good in Romandie until a dropped chain on a tough climb ruined his chances for a strong result. Like van Garderen, Talansky seems to have focused on improving his climbing this year (possibly even at the expense of his top-notch time trial) which will be crucial in this Dauphine. He tends to perform well in short stage races, even against top talent, and he’ll have recent Giro Top 10 finisher Ryder Hesjedal for support.
AG2R sends a powerful 1-2 punch with Jean-Christophe Peraud and Romain Bardet. Peraud was excellent in the spring, landing a string of great results capped off by a Criterium International victory. He cooled off at Romandie but with some time to return to form he should be able to play a role here. Teammate Romain Bardet is a sharp climbing with an aggressive streak. He’s looked good this year and, unlike many of the other contenders, he won’t be coming in cold, as he has just completed the Bayern Rundfahrt. The strong AG2R duo should be able to land at least one rider in the Top 10.
OPQS wunderkind Michal Kwiatkowski returns to racing after some time off. As usual, it’s hard to know what to expect. He is one of the most versatile riders in the sport and he does not have an off-switch, so it seems likely that he’ll be going 100% on every stage, but the mountains will be a challenge. He will be one of the top contenders for the opening ITT, and bonus seconds favor his fast finish, so he will at least be in the conversation. Jan Bakelants is another all-round talent who could decide to make a bid for the overall.
Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti gets a rare opportunity to ride for his own ambitions, as Tour leader Alejandro Valverde is riding the Route de Sud instead. When given these chances, Intxausti does not usually disappoint, and he was one of the strongest on the slopes in the Tour de Romandie. Igor Anton and John Gadret will offer more options on the climbs. NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig has struggled with a knee injury in 2014, but he returned to racing at Bayern Rundfahrt and looked strong there. At his best, he’s a top climber who shouldn’t be underestimated. Maintaining a high level of form for so long is a lot to ask of Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman but he has been nothing if not surprising in 2014, and bonus seconds favor his very fast finish. Lampre’s Damiano Cunego also has some Giro mileage in his legs, but like Kelderman, he’ll enjoy the chance to fight for bonus seconds. OGE’s young Adam Yates will hope to continue his excellent year against this top competition. Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler has not produced the sort of results he tends to aim for, but it’s a good route for him. Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck finally returns to racing. It’s been a very rough year for the Belgian, who has been bothered by a knee injury, but this is a very important race for him to prove that he belongs in Lotto’s Tour squad. Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae and Trek’s duo of veteran Haimar Zubeldia and up-and-comer Bob Jungels are other outsiders.
The Stagehunters
While the Tour’s biggest GC names are making the Dauphine start in preparation for July’s big race, many of the top sprinters are conspicuously absent. The parcours may have something to do with it, as there aren’t a lot of sprinting opportunities here. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, coming off his strong Giro, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare, who has racked up quite a collection of wins this year, headline the list. Both excel on similar terrain, so it will be an interesting battle between the two in the flat finishes. OPQS’s Gianni Meersman, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, OGE’s Leigh Howard, and Giant-Shimano’s Reinardt Janse van Rensburg will hope to challenge them.
The list of versatile, quick finisher types who thrive on the hilly profiles is impressive. OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Daryl Impey, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato, Lotto’s Tony Gallopin, Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, and OPQS’s Zdenek Stybar could battle with some of the fast-finishing GC riders (Michael Kwiatkowski especially) for the intermediate days, though they’ll have to keep an eye on solo artists like Trek’s Jens Voigt, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, Belkin’s Lars Boom, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel, and Garmin’s Ramunas Navardauskas.
VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites
Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Alberto Contador, Simon Spilak Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky, Beñat Intxausti, Romain Bardet, Richie Porte, Jakob Fuglsang
I won’t be previewing individual stages, but as usual I’ll have plenty of picks and analysis at the still relatively new @VeloHuman on Twitter! Also, be sure to come back soon, as there are plenty of big things coming at VeloHuman: previews of the Tour de Suisse and every stage of the Tour de France, as well as interviews with some fast-rising young pros! Stay tuned.
