Episode 64: Tirreno-Adriatico 2017 Pre-race Show
You’re not wrong, we did just do a Paris-Nice podcast. Take it up with the WorldTour schedulers. Tirreno-Adriatico is nigh upon us, which means it’s time for more preview show action. Buckle up for a closer look at the diverse route and compelling start list ahead of the Race of the Two Seas…
The Recon Ride podcast teams up with Cyclingnews to preview the first Italian WorldTour event of 2017.
Quite a collection talented riders is headed to Tirreno-Adriatico this week to hunt for results – and the race’s famed golden trident trophy – along the road from one side of Italy to the other. A balanced parcours offers something for everyone in the country’s first big stage race of the year.
Tirreno-Adriatico opens with a 22.7-kilometer team time trial. It’s long enough to make a difference, giving an advantage to the GC hopefuls with high-octane backing squads, but it’s not so long that it’s going to flat-out win someone the race on day one.
Stage 2 throws a few challenges at the riders at the end of a 207km day. There is a small categorized climb just before the finish that may open up a few gaps.
Stage 3 is a day for the sprinters. Stage 4 concludes with a flat stretch but a string of late climbs could inspire attacks, either from stagehunters or from aggressive GC types.
Stage 5 is the definitive queen stage, with five categorized climbs including a tough uphill finish of 13km at 6.6%.
Stage 6, the longest stage in the race, has some uncategorized ascents late on in the profile that could favor the more versatile riders in the peloton, but it’s hard to see it having any GC impact.
The race closes out with a 10km individual time trial in San Benedetto del Tronto. It’s a completely flat out-and-back run that should see some pretty high speeds.
Nairo Quintana won the 2015 edition of the race, but he won’t be defending his crown in 2016. However, with Alejandro Valverde leading the way, Movistar still has a great chance of coming away with a win. The Spaniard can do it all, and that’s a big plus on this varied parcours. Movistar’s great TTT will help.
Vincenzo Nibali makes the start in pursuit of a third career Tirreno title, and he too should appreciate the parcours. The queen stage involves plenty of descendning, which should allow the Italian to put his downhill abilities on display. Jakob Fuglsang gives Astana a strong Plan B.
Tejay van Garderen would probably have a hard time drawing up a more favorable parcours. BMC’s world-class TTT squad should set him up well from the get go, and the long queen stage finishing climb and stage 7 time trial will both give him a chance to put his own big engine on display. He looked strong in Andalucía last month and should be among the top favorites in Italy.
Rigoberto Urán will also like the style of climbs in this race and the closing TT, though the opening team time trial may hurt him given Cannondale’s struggle in the discipline. If he can limit his losses there, he’ll have a shot at the overall.
Joaquím Rodríguez should appreciate the plethora of opportunities to punch clear of the pack even if the chrono mileage doesn’t suit him. He has yet to deliver much this season but it’s not unusual for him to show up stronger than expected after a few quiet weeks riding tune-up races. Jurgen Van Den Broeck could be a nice alternative.
Bauke Mollema was runner-up in Tirreno in 2015 and looks to be in good form at the moment. He could be among the GC favorites trying to snipe a few seconds here and there on the intermediate stages.
Thibaut Pinot won’t be a fan of the opening TTT but he’s improved dramatically as a descender and so should be able to hold his own on the queen stag. He’s also capable of putting in a decent ITT, making him a real contender for the overall title.
Ag2r’s one-two punch of Domenico Pozzovivo and Jean-Christophe Peraud should be in the mix, as should Orica-GreenEdge’s duo of Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves. Sky brings a powerhouse trio of Michal Kwiatkowski, Vasil Kiryienka, and Wout Poels.
Diego Ulissi, Roman Kreuziger, Rafael Valls, and Rodolfo Torres are other potential protagonists in the General Classification.
Mark Cavendish looks like the fastest of the pure sprinters in attendance, although there are several big names that could challenge him in the bunch kicks. Caleb Ewan, Fernando Gaviria, Elia Viviani, Giacomo Nizzolo, and Sacha Modolo are the headliners there.
Peter Sagan should have a few opportunities of his own as well, as there are some lumpier days. Greg Van Avermaet could be in the mix as well—he actually beat Sagan in a sprint to take a stage here in 2015. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Ramunas Navardauskas, and Jens Debusschere are others worth keeping an eye on in the stagehunting game.
Winner: Vincenzo Nibali
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Tejay van Garderen
Other Top Contenders: Rigoberto Urán, Joaquím Rodríguez, Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibaut Pinot, Bauke Mollema, Michal Kwiatkowski, Wout Poels
Photo: ANSA / PERI – ZENNARO.
The 50th running of Tirreno-Adriatico offers the cycling world a double dose of WorldTour racing for a few days in March as it overlaps with Paris-Nice in France. The Italian stage race boasts a startlist that includes three of the top four Tour de France favorites (Chris Froome was on the startlist but has withdrawn with a chest infection), elite sprinters, and a bevy of Classics stars tuning up for the one-day races around the corner. Recent history would suggest that this race is an important test for those stars hoping to stand at cycling’s center stage. After winning here last season, Alberto Contador went on to nab quite a collection of results over the course of the rest of his year. In fact, the last six editions in a row have been won by riders who either already had or would go on to add Grand Tour victories to their palmares. No other one-week stage race can boast such a consistent correlation between its winners and the winners of the sport’s biggest events.
With chrono mileage, sprint stages, bumpier days, and a brutal summit finish all along the route, Tirreno-Adriatico has all the makings of a mini-Grand Tour. Stage 1 is a flat, 5.7-kilometer individual time trial that replaced a TTT at the last moment. Something this short isn’t likely to shake up the GC all that much but it can’t be overlooked either. Meanwhile, some of the more powerful sprinters on the startlist will appreciate the chance to get a rare chrono victory. They will have another chance to shine on the short and flat Stage 2, which will almost certainly end in a bunch gallop.
Things get a bit more interesting on Stage 3, where the peloton will overcome cobbles and some short climbs in the second half of the day likely to favor the punchier riders. Stage 4 poses several challenges, with climbs of the Poggio San Romualdo and Monte San Vicino followed by back-back ascents of the short but steep Crispiero climb, almost certain to launch late attacks.
Stage 5 of Tirreno-Adriatico will put the peloton to the test with a summit finish on the Terminillo climb. 16.1 kilometers at 7.3%, it’s a long slog to the top that will put serious pain into the legs of anyone coming into this race out of shape.
Bauke Mollema told the Recon Ride that this was going to be a climb for the “strong guys” where long-term wattage would be key, and it’s easy to see why.
Stage 6 brings the riders back down towards sea level and should end in a bunch sprint. The seventh and final stage is a flat, 10 kilometer ITT, one final chance for GC action on the last day of the race. From start to finish, it is a balanced route that will require a complete skillset to win. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at finishes (and 3-2-1 at intermediate sprints) will benefit those with some punch.
For weeks this was set up to be a clash of cycling’s “Big Four,” the four top favorites for the Tour de France, but Chris Froome withdrew from the startlist with a chest infection, leaving only three of those Grand Tour stars to battle it out with the rest of the contenders. It should still be quite a show.
Defending champion Alberto Contador will enter the race as the top favorite, with his combination of strong time trialing and elite climbing legs, and having shown great form in the Ruta del Sol, where only Froome could beat him. He dominated this race last year and it given his abilities it’s easy to see him head and shoulders above the competition again. Roman Kreuziger, who seems to be in excellent shape right now, will make for a strong support rider or a deadly alternative.
The alteration of Stage 1 from a TTT to an ITT helps Contador even more: his biggest rival looks to be last year’s runner-up Nairo Quintana, who rides for a Movistar team that would have likely put in an excellent performance in the group chrono; now, Quintana must go against the clock by himself, twice. That said, Quintana will have his opportunities to strike for glory on the challenging slopes that await in Tirreno-Adriatico, and he did show some form in January at the Tour de San Luis, where he was 3rd and even put in a decent ride in a mostly flat ITT. Quintana gets better every year (he just turned 25 in February), and he will relish the opportunity to climb one step higher on the podium than he did in the 2014 edition of the race.
Vincenzo Nibali has won here twice, and in top shape he would merit more consideration as the top overall favorite, but has not shown a great deal of form so far this season. He may be following a pattern similar to the one he followed last year, slowly building to his Tour de France peak; it certainly worked out for him in 2014. Furthermore, the route isn’t ideal for him, with its double helping of ITT days. Still, Nibali has gone from showing little form to riding at an elite level very quickly in the past. If that is what he has in mind for Tirreno-Adriatico, watch for him to try to take an early advantage on Stage 3, where short steep climbs will provide launching pads and late descents could help Nibali, a brilliant descender, escape from the peloton if he makes the attempt. A powerful team that includes Dario Cataldo, Michele Scarponi, and Lieuwe Westra will give Astana options.
The form of Joaquim Rodríguez, who typically merits inclusion among the top favorites in a stage race, is a major unknown after quiet starts in Dubai and Oman. The course doesn’t suit him particularly well either, though Purito can never be counted out. Daniel Moreno is here for Katusha as well. Unlike Rodríguez, Moreno has put in decent rides in San Luis and Oman already this season.
New Colombian ITT champ Rigoberto Urán flashed some form in Strade Bianche, where he was 7th, and this is an excellent parcours for him. Tirreno-Adriatico has difficult climbs, but nothing of the incredibly steep variety that might put him into difficulty against the likes of Contador. For Urán, the time trials and potential for bonus seconds (his finishing kick is impressive) on a few stages will be a golden opportunity to challenge the defending champion, as well as the only two riders who have finished the Giro ahead of him the past two season, Nibali and Quintana.
Bauke Mollema will lead the charge for Trek Factory Racing, and he says that he’s feeling good after an offseason with his new team, which a string of good results in early season races seems to confirm. Julián Arredondo gives Trek another dangerous option on the climbs.
Despite the absence of Chris Froome, Sky will still have a strong presence in Tirreno-Adriatico. Leopold König sports a strong time trial and can climb with the best on a good day and Mikel Nieve was 4th in the Ruta del Sol in February. Both riders should be motivated to take advantage of the opportunity to ride for their own results.
AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo would probably prefer more mountains, but he can’t be ignored here. He was 6th last year, and is coming off a nice ride in the Tour Down Under. Teammate Carlos Betancur is a bit of a wildcard, brilliant at his best but not having shown any form since this time last year. Cannondale-Garmin will have the weapons to make for an interesting race with Ryder Hesjedal, Davide Formolo, and Daniel Martin. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot would prefer less chrono mileage but he has improved in that discipline over the past few seasons and will hope to make up any time he loses in the ITTs on the climbs in the middle of the race. New teammate Steve Morabito is VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar rider for Tirreno-Adriatico. After several years at BMC working as a reliable support rider, Morabito joined FDJ over the offseason. He’s a great climber and decent in the time trials, but he did not get many opportunities to ride for himself at BMC. It should be clear pretty early on in this race whether he is being given a chance to get his own results; if he is, he should surprise some people. Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Pierre Rolland, and Louis Meintjes are other outsiders with a shot.
Much like Froome among the GC contenders, a sick Marcel Kittel withdrew from the race and the sprinters conversation, leaving Mark Cavendish looking like the top rider for the sprints. He will still have competition, however, especially as he and leadout man Mark Renshaw are both overcoming illness. Sky’s new acquisition Elia Viviani has beaten Cavendish more than once in the past and will hope to do so here. IAM’s Matteo Pelucchi is in great shape right now and should be in the mix. Bora-Argon 18’s Sam Bennett won a hotly contested sprint stage in Qatar and will be dangerous in the fast finishes. Peter Sagan will likely be involved in the bunch sprints as well, and will be especially dangerous on Stage 3, which finishes in Arezzo, where he won last year. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo, Giant’s Luka Mezgec, and Tyler Farrar and Matt Goss of MTN-Qhubeka are other fast men to watch out for.
With two chrono stages, the time trial talents merit a mention as well: Adriano Malori, Fabian Cancellara, Ian Stannard, and Niki Terpstra should all appreciate the pair of opportunities to pick up WorldTour stage wins against the clock at the open and close of the race.
Winner: Alberto Contador
Podium: Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Urán
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Bauke Mollema, Domenico Pozzovivo, Roman Kreuziger, Thibaut Pinot, Joaquim Rodríguez, Leopold König
For daily stage predictions and more Tirreno-Adriatico commentary, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter. And of course, don’t miss the Recon Ride for Tirreno-Adriatico 2015, which covers all the big storylines of the race and even includes a bit of insider insight from GC contender Bauke Mollema.
-Dane Cash
Photo by Francesco Ianett.
Episode 3: Tirreno-Adriatico 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride talks route, favorites, and more for the Race of the Two Seas, with a guest appearance by Trek’s Bauke Mollema.
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While some of the peloton’s big names are in France for Paris-Nice, Grand Tour favorites and top sprinters and classics riders alike will take on Tirreno-Adriatico this week. VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm.com delve into the roadbook, discuss the riders to watch, and even talk to GC contender Bauke Mollema of Trek Factory Racing about what to expect in Italy.
Update: this show was recorded and published before a flurry of late changes to the race narrative, among them the withdrawals of Chris Froome and Marcel Kittel, and the modification of Stage 1 from a team time trial into an individual time trial. However, the Recon Ride covers so many aspects of this race that there should still be plenty here to get you prepared for Tirreno-Adriatico.
Photo by Johan Haggi.
Youth is Served at Paris-Nice
Paris-Nice was a race full of coming out parties. The youth movement was on full display on the undulating course, where every stage winner was aged 25 or younger. Young but already established sprinters Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb further padded their resumes at the top level, both picking up victories (and Degenkolb’s multiple strong showings on the way to the points jersey suggest a high level of form heading into Milano-Sanremo this weekend). Moreno Hofland made good on his excellent Kuurne Bruxelles-Kuurne by taking a stage victory over both of Degenkolb and Bouhanni. He’s just 22 and an exciting addition for a Belkin team that has been lacking in sprint power recently.
Once the road went up, AG2R’s Carlos Betancur put on a show, picking up two stage wins en route to the overall victory. Betancur, just 24, showed a powerful finishing kick in back to back stages. His explosiveness was already a well-known trait, but before this week, he had yet to pick up a WorldTour level victory. Now, he has three. With his performances in Paris-Nice, he has to be viewed as a top contender to nab a victory in the Ardennes.
Tom-Jelte Slagter won the Tour Down Under in 2013, but that is a race that has a history of producing results that aren’t repeated elsewhere on the pro calendar. Garmin’s new acquisition confirmed his talents with a very successful Paris-Nice, winning two stages, once with a late attack, and another in a reduced bunch sprint. His shot at the overall classification was ruined by an untimely late mechanical, but he showed he could contend for GC in this kind of race before that misfortune. Slagter’s brand of riding is the sort that wins late summer circuit races, so watch out for him in the GPs of Ouest Plouay, Montreal, and Quebec, where he seems set to improve on a number of top 10s already on his resume. Speaking of those late summer circuit races, last year’s runner up in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, outgunned more well-known sprinter/all-rounder JJ Rojas in the final stage of Paris-Nice on his way to a podium spot. Like most of the top riders in this race, the French champion will take on the Ardennes Classics in April.
For many of the aforementioned riders, Paris-Nice was a chance to make good on previous flashes of talent. Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, 6th overall at Paris-Nice, was a bit more of a surprise, having only found some success at lower levels so far. He was in the mix at nearly all the stage finishes that mattered in P-N. Stefan Denifl was mixing it up as well on his way to 7th overall for IAM Cycling.
Simon Spilak and Jakob Fuglsang (who stepped in for Astana with Nibali not at his best) both showed fine form, but this was always going to be a difficult race for them to break into podium positions: neither is well-known for his sprint, and with so many bonus seconds on the line, Top 10s are respectable results to start the season.
The number of riders derailed by sudden misfortune was staggering. Many big contenders hit untimely mechanicals or were put out of contention by crashes, or just plain got sick. Geraint Thomas looked set for a podium position before a nasty late crash. Still, he showed serious all-round talent throughout the race, climbing at a surprising level, and Sky’s trust in his ability will grow after several strong days at P-N.
Rui Costa gets the final mention. He’ll be frustrated beyond belief with 2nd places on two stages and in GC, but he’s obviously on sharp form and has plenty of big races coming up, including Pais Vasco, which looks full of stages to suit his talents.
Contador Dominant in Italy
Tirreno-Adriatico offers one takeaway that stands out above all others: Alberto Contador is back. The 31 year old Spaniard was untouchable on the two mountainous stages of T-A, and the sheer size of the gap he created on Stage 5, after already giving his best to win Stage 4, put him a level well above anyone else in the race. It’s early in the year, but he should carry this form into Catalunya, where he’ll face more of the peloton’s best. His teammate Roman Kreuziger landed yet another result suggesting that he should be considered alongside the very best GC riders in the peloton, fighting it out with the top climbers in the race behind Contador on Stages 4 and 5. There are few things that the winner of last year’s Amstel Gold Race can’t do, and he looks well-situated right now to bring those talents in full force to the spring stage races and Ardennes Classics.
Nairo Quintana was not able to hang with Contador at Tirreno-Adriatico, but he still looked quite good, finishing as runner-up. He has had comparatively few days of racing so far this season, so a 2nd place at T-A bodes well. The biggest takeaway for Quintana may have been a rapidly improving ability to take on the clock: his ITT, usually a weak part of his game, was faster than the ITTs of both Kreuziger and Contador.
Trek’s Julian Arredondo made one of the biggest entrances in T-A. The 25 year old Colombian came into T-A hot after a 2nd overall in San Luis and two stage wins, and he hung with all the best climbers in this race (minus Contador) on stages 4 and 5 to take 5th overall. He and teammate Robert Kiserlovski, 8th overall, will look to keep landing strong performances in the early season.
AG2R, having just won Paris-Nice, put together a great showing at Tirreno-Adriatico, with Jean-Christophe Peraud nabbing 4th overall and Domenico Pozzovivo 6th. It’s quite a turnaround for a squad that, not long ago, was generally towards the bottom of the WorldTour standings.
Michal Kwiatkowski’s week, characterized by an early lead and sudden fall back to Earth, was a big storyline in Tirreno-Adriatico. After giving his all and hanging with the best of the climbers in the race on the 4th stage, he simply couldn’t hang on the pace for the next day. He’ll be extremely disappointed with the missed chance at his first WorldTour victory, but he should take solace in the fact that OPQS was willing to put everything they had (including last year’s Giro runner-up Rigoberto Uran) behind his chances at winning the race. Pais Vasco looks to suit his talents, so watch out for him again there.
Halfway through the race, Richie Porte joined Chris Froome on Sky’s sicklist, an unfortunate turn of events that kept us from the opportuntity to see much of Porte’s form right now, though he looked in fine shape on the 4th stage. Robert Gesink and Chris Horner pulled out for health reasons as well. Cadel Evans also dropped out of the race, well off form. He has work to do if he wants to contend in the big races of the spring.
For various reasons, neither stage 2 nor stage 6 offered the expected showdown between the sport’s top three sprinters, Greipel, Kittel, and Cavendish. Cav won Stage 6 in commanding fashion, with a leadout so strong that his teammate Alessandro Petacchi took 2nd on the day, but Kittel and Greipel were not positioned to contest him there. Meanwhile, Matteo Pelucchi, with a beautiful kick and an uncanny sense of timing, jumped at just the right moment to take Stage 2 for IAM Cycling. Peter Sagan won the 3rd stage handily and took the Points Classification, lest there was any question about his form in the early season. He looks sharp for the upcoming classics.
Adriano Malori finally nabbed his big win. He took the final ITT handily, and he did it against the biggest three names in time trialing and a slew of other big chrono riders. He was part of Movistar’s very strong TTT in this race, a group that set up Nairo Quintana for his 2nd place. I think we’ll see Malori and his fellow Movistar time trialing heavyweights on display again soon, perhaps in the Giro.
What’s Next?
Three WorldTour stage races are already in the books in 2014, both of them full of takeaways for the early season. If Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico didn’t get you excited enough, the first Monument of the season, Milano-Sanremo, is up next. VeloHuman will, of course, be previewing the race, so check back soon, and follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis every day!
-Dane Cash
Photo by Mike Slone.
Top Talent Everywhere at Tirreno-Adriatico
Being able to watch two WorldTour stage races at the same time is almost too good to be true. Paris-Nice has kicked off already, and it’s been a thrilling ride so far, with three different sprinters winning the opening three stages; Bouhanni and Degenkolb were well above the competition in stages 1 and 3, respectively, and Moreno Hofland (VH did tell you he looked great this season!) made a brilliant WorldTour entrance on stage 2. There is even more action on the way tomorrow with the beginning of the “Race of the Two Seas,” boasting a start list packed with talent from all angles and specialties. While Paris-Nice took an unconventional approach to stage planning this year, drawing up a course with no mountaintop finishes and no time trials, Tirreno-Adriatico looks to be an archetypical stage race, opening with a team time trial, offering a few flat sprinters’ days and a few days in the mountains for the climbers, and then closing with an individual time trial. This race was made for a true blue GC rider at the head of a strong team.
Before I dive in: don’t forget to follow the just-launched @VeloHuman on Twitter for more news and views during the race! And as usual, if you just want to cut straight to the GC Top 10 predictions, they’re at the bottom of this post.
All-Rounder Roundup
True blue GC riders leading strong teams are all over the startlist. First on the docket is a rider who wasn’t scheduled to ride this race until just this weekend, when Plan A, Chris Froome (who was 2nd last year to Vincenzo Nibali, currently at Paris-Nice), withdrew from Tirreno-Adriatico with back pain. Richie Porte steps into his place. The Australian was set to defend his Paris-Nice title, but he may have lucked out; with his combination of TT ability and long haul climbing, T-A seems to suit him much better than P-N. He’ll also have the benefit of a great chrono team on the opening stage, as Sky brings Bradley Wiggins, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Dario Cataldo, and Ian Stannard as well. Wiggins was another late addition, and after he announced a plan to also ride the Volta a Catalunya, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sir Bradley with his own GC ambitions.
Tinkoff Saxo’s Alberto Contador nabbed 3rd place and the Points Classification of last year’s edition. He’s off to a hot start, winning a stage and taking 2nd in the Volta ao Algarve. He’ll bring quite a team to the 2014 race, with elite climbers Nicolas Roche and Roman Kreuziger (also looking sharp) to serve as impressive seconds. Tinkoff-Saxo will be a very difficult team to beat.
Nairo Quintana and his Movistar squad will also bring serious firepower, with a squad well selected for this race: Quintana will love the uphill mileage but he’ll struggle on the final day’s time trial; good thing for him that Movistar is likely to set him up nicely from the first stage with some top men against the clock, including Alex Dowsett, Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori. Benat Intxausti, Igor Anton, Eros Capecchi, and Andrey Amador (surprisingly 8th here last year), will provide quite a buffer of talent on the hills as well. With the kind of form he showed in the Tour de San Luis, Quintana could put serious time on anyone not climbing at an elite level right now. I think it’s likely he will.
BMC’s Cadel Evans has looked good in the early goings, and he’s won here in the past. With his all-round abilities, he can be a strong player in the GC game at this race. Other than Philippe Gilbert, he won’t have the name recognition supporting him that the other big GC guys will have, but Darwin Atapuma will make a strong ally on the slopes.
OPQS is bringing a pairing of potential team leaders, making it difficult for opponents to plan accordingly. One of the hottest riders in the peloton right now is Poland’s Michal Kwiatkowski, and he’ll roll into T-A as a great candidate for the overall, especially with the stalwart support of the team’s world-beating time trial skills giving him an advantage right out of the gate. He’s also a good pick to have the best final day chrono of any GC contender, as he excels in that discipline, especially over short distances. Meanwhile, OPQS is also sending top climber Rigoberto Uran, who will be a favorite on both mountain stages, and who will also be helped by the TTT. He was one of the strongest riders in the Tour of Oman, where he finished on the podium.
I think the top of the leaderboard will be very tight among these top favorites. All of them are big names with big support and proven Grand Tour style talent, with the exception of Kwiatkowksi, who makes up for what he lacks in experience with on fire form. But this is one of the most impressive startlists you’ll see for a one week stage race this year, and that doesn’t simply apply to the top favorites.
A number of challenger squads are taking a 1-2 punch approach: Belkin’s pairing of Robert Gesink (looking sharp so far) and Bauke Mollema will make them very difficult to plan against; both riders are very well-rounded, which will be helpful in this race. Garmin-Sharp brings their own top duo of Andrew Talansky and Daniel Martin, and there’s something for both of them here: Andrew Talansky has the big tank necessary for the long haul climb of stage 4 (and the finishing time trial), while Martin is just the type of rider to explode up the sloping finish of stage 5, and his style won’t be too hampered by the time trial, which will be short enough that he can probably cope; however, the form of both Garmin riders is an unknown. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo and Jean-Christophe Peraud, both excellent uphill sloggers and both off to strong starts this year, will make a formidable mini-train when the road goes skyward. Lampre-Merida could go with the hot hand of Italian wunderkind Diego Ulissi, a force in the bonus seconds game and a strong presence at the Tour Down Under, or with newly acquired vet Chris Horner, who, despite being teamless for most of the offseason, looked like he hadn’t lost much form when he took to the slopes at the Volta ao Algarve. Astana sends former winner Michele Scarponi, looking alright so far this year, and Tanel Kangert, who gets better at climbing every day.
Dani Moreno gets to race on his own in a rare occurrence, and he tends to do well enough as it is when he’s second to Purito; watch out for him here with bonus seconds in play and an ITT short enough not to disadvantage him too heavily. Thibaut Pinot pulled out of Oman, making his form an unknown, but he’s a contender if he’s in shape, though FDJ’s weak TTT squad won’t help his cause; Alexandre Geniez is another option. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is in a similar boat. Jurgen van den Broeck hasn’t showed much this year, but he’ll head up Lotto’s GC ambitions. Ivan Basso is yet another bringing unknown form but obvious talent. Robert Kiserlovski is probably Trek’s go to GC man, and he’ll at least have a decent start thanks to Cancellara and Co. in the opening stage.
Stagehunters
The list of riders here to chase stages is perhaps even more impressive. The four biggest names in sprinting will be in attendance, namely, Andre Greipel, Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, and Peter Sagan. Greipel looks amazing right now and Kittel took several wins in Dubai. Mark Cavendish got started a bit later than Greipel and Kittel, but he took a stage win against very talented sprinters in the Volta ao Algarve. Sagan is his usual self, probably just a hair behind the big three pure sprinters but always lurking, and he’ll be gunning for the slightly uphill third stage finish. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare (who can probably handle stage 3 as well), Lampre’s very hot Sacha Modolo, MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati and Michael Morkov will try to nab a sprint victory from the bigger names. Philippe Gilbert could also feature on the third stage. I’d love to see a guy like Sam Bennett take a stage win here but with such a talented field, it’s hard to see guys on the fringe with much of a shot.
Not to be outdone by the caliber of sprinting talent in attendance, the three biggest names in time-trialing will set out from Donoratico as well: Tony Martin, Bradley Wiggins, and Fabian Cancellara. The final stage will be a treat for fans of chronos with so many TT specialists and GC contenders with TT ability gunning for victory. Orica-GreenEdge seems to have brought a squad hellbent on performing in both the opening team time trial and the final short ITT, with Luke Durbridge, Michael Hepburn, Cam Meyer and Svein Tuft all making the start. Every stage of this race really will feature top talents in every cycling specialty.
VeloHuman Predictions
GC Winner: Nairo Quintana
GC Podium: Michal Kwiatkowski, Richie Porte
GC Top 10: Alberto Contador, Rigoberto Uran, Domenico Pozzovivo, Cadel Evans, Diego Ulissi, Robert Gesink, Andrew Talansky
Check back in soon for post-race analysis and the next VH race preview (Milano-Sanremo is less than two weeks away). In the meantime, look for more news and views @VeloHuman on Twitter.
-Dane Cash
Photo by Antonio Cinotti.