With the World Championships well underway, the elite men’s individual time trial title is up for grabs in Richmond. Bradley Wiggins is not around to defend his rainbow jersey, but there are plenty of chrono specialists looking to succeed him as the world champ.
The Route
The lion’s share of the 53km men’s ITT course sits outside the city of Richmond. Only in the final few 10km or so do the roads start to get particularly urban. Before that, it’s mostly rolling countryside.
The official profile may appear to have plenty of ups and downs, but this is a pretty flat course.
The riders will set out from the King’s Dominion amusement park and work their way south into town, where the route gets slightly (but not a lot) more technical in the final run-in to the finish.
While the profile highlights every single small riser and short downhill stretch, this is not a particularly hilly time trial, and we can expect the TT heavyweights to get up to pretty high speeds.
The Favorites
Tony Martin, in the hunt for his fourth world title, is the top favorite to take the victory. The long, mostly flat course suits him very well, and without Bradley Wiggins around, no one can match Martin in terms of peak ability. It’s been an odd year for Martin, who hasn’t built up as dominant a record in the TTs as he did in 2013 or 2014, but he’s the most accomplished rider on the startlist and in his prime, so it’s hard to bet against him.
Tom Dumoulin ran 3rd in 2014 and has consistently been among cycling’s best against the clock, but it’s hard to know just how strong he’ll be after an exhausting Vuelta. Dumoulin fought hard for a GC position all the way to the final mountain stage, and that takes its toll. Still, he’s had a bit of time to recover and could be in the mix.
Rohan Dennis may be the best-positioned to challenge Martin for the win. It won’t be easy, but Dennis has had an excellent season and proved his form leading BMC Racing to a TTT title on Sunday.
It would be a huge surprise if the world title went to any rider outside that trio. Adriano Malori is among the best of the rest—he’s had a comparatively quiet season at the highest level of racing but has won several Continental Tour TTs, including one very recently over Tony Martin at the Tour de Poitou Charentes.
Pre-injury Taylor Phinney probably expected to be challenging for the world title by 2015, but things haven’t quite gone as planned over the past two seasons. Still, Phinney looks very strong right now and is riding in from of home fans. Given what he proved to be capable of in time trials early on in his career, he can’t be counted out.
Vasil Kiryienka was very impressive in the Giro’s long time trial and always does well at Worlds. Alex Dowsett can run hot and cold but (along with Malori) he had enough form to help Movistar to a podium spot in the TTT Sunday. Matthias Brändle, Maciej Bodnar, Jan Bárta, Luke Durbridge, Rasmus Quaade, Wilco Kelderman, Jonathan Castroviejo, Rigoberto Urán, and Stefan Küng are others to watch.
VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites
Winner: Tony Martin Podium: Tom Dumoulin, Rohan Dennis Other Top Favorites: Adriano Malori, Taylor Phinney, Vasil Kiryienka, Matthias Brändle, Rasmus Quaade, Maciej Bodnar, Jan Bárta
VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of Worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.
For the powerful engines in the Vuelta peloton who have been struggling in the mountains, the Stage 17 time trial, likely to play a pivotal role in deciding the overall winner of the race, is just what the doctor ordered.
38.7 kilometers in full, it’s a time trial that suits the specialists—though perhaps a bit less than a quick glance at the profile would suggest. The first 10km trends generally uphill, with a few steeper stretches. Then it’s a quick downhill, a short roller, and a descent onto a long section of flat.
Around kilometer 30 there is another bump in the road, followed by a climb of about a kilometer at over 6%. Then comes a descent down into a flattish (slightly uphill finish).
While the parcours is far from a high-mountain time trial, it does have a few ups and downs and some technical stretches. We can expect the time trialing heavyweights to go really well, but I do see a few areas that will give the climbers at least something to be happy about.
Tom Dumoulin, currently 4th overall, is the best time trialist in the race by a significant margin, and he has everything on the line, as he is just 2 minutes away from the race lead. At his best, he would dominate this course, which suits him very well. However, an ITT after two weeks of hard racing and hanging with the GC favorites is uncharted territory for Dumoulin. I still see him as the favorite, and I expect him to do very well, but he might not perform quite to his peak ability after such a tough Vuelta.
Vasil Kiryienka will likely be his biggest challenger for the stage. Kiryienka has been excellent this year, and he has already taken a big Grand Tour time trial victory this season in the Giro. Unlike Dumoulin, he has not needed to go quite as deep in the Vuelta. He’s got strong climbing legs and won’t be troubled by the rollers on the course. In short, I think he will give Dumoulin a run for his money for Stage 17.
Luis León Sánchez was just 12 seconds behind Kiryienka in the that Giro TT. He’s on great form right now and will have a rare chance to do his own thing here. Like the aforementioned pair, he’s also handy on rolling climbs and should go very well on the parcours.
Nelson Oliveira is on great form right now and is strong in the discipline. He could contend for the stage win. Jurgen Van Den Broeck has turned himself into a TT specialist at this point in his career and has put up several nice results recently. Stephen Cummings, Maciej Bodnar, Niki Terpstra, Sylvain Chavanel, and Jerome Coppel are others to watch for on Stage 17.
I think Joaquím Rodríguez will do a bit better than most people seem to expect—despite his reputation for losing big in the ITTs, he’s become a respectable rider against the clock over the past few years. Unfortunately for Purito, I also think we will see Fabio Aru putting up a strong ride. Astana knows how important the time trials are and even though Aru is far from a chrono specialist, he’s got a strong engine and will be fresher than most riders after several tough days in the mountains. In the same vein, I see Rafal Majka doing particularly well on Stage 17. He’s shown ability against the clock even on flatter TTs in the past, and he’s got a great chance at podium in this Vuelta if he can put it all together here.
VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites
1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Vasil Kiryienka | 3. Luis León Sánchez
Episode 26: Vuelta a España 2015 Show, Part III The Vuelta a España remains a hotly contested race even into its third week, which gives the Recon Ride plenty to talk about in this third and final Vuelta show.
[powerpress]
Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a look at where things stand at the Vuelta after 16 stages, and what’s on tap as the year’s final Grand Tour comes down the home stretch, with a bit of help from veteran cycling journalist Andrew Hood.
The Tour de France gets underway with a flat 13.8-kilometer time trial in Utrecht. It’s a little longer than a traditional prologue, but still short enough that those riders with a bit of pop could enjoy a chance to churn out a very high tempo for the duration of the trip along the course. There are no hills to speak of, though there are several corners that will require some deft bike handling.
Tony Martin is the best pure time trialing talent in the race, and an excellent bike handler. He’d probably prefer something a bit longer to put his big engine on display, but this is still a good course for him. It’s probably safe to assume that Martin has had his eye on the yellow jersey since the Stage 1 was announced, and when Martin focuses his full attention on a time trial, it’s almost impossible to beat him.
Tom Dumoulin will have a chance. His explosiveness should translate favorably on this shorter parcours, and he is, of course, riding in front of a home crowd. He’s had trouble beating Martin head-to-head in the past, but this is an ideal scenario for him to overcome those difficulties.
Fabian Cancellara also has a good shot here on Stage 1. The terrain suits him and he looked strong in the Tour de Suisse time trials. The veteran Classics star knows how to handle pressure and in the spotlight of the Tour’s busy first stage, he should shine.
The stage winner will very likely come from the aforementioned trio of favorites, but there are a few outsiders who could contend . Adriano Malori has been knocking at the door of the elite time trialing club for a little while now. Short courses tend to suit him. Watch out for the Italian Movistar rider. Michal Kwiatkowski, Geraint Thomas, Rohan Dennis, Alex Dowsett, Peter Sagan, and Greg Van Avermaet are others with a chance at Stage 1 success and the yellow jersey on offer as well.
VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites
1. Tony Martin | 2. Tom Dumoulin | 3. Fabian Cancellara
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 1. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.
Most major time trials take place in the middle of stage races, when riders have already put a lot of mileage into their legs and may be facing more in the days that follow. The Worlds ITT, however, takes away those complicating factors and allows the chrono specialists to face a standalone challenge. The time trial is often known as the “race of truth,” and it’s hard to imagine a more honest indicator of talent against the clock than this yearly battle for the rainbow stripes.
The Route
47.1 kilometers in total, the men’s elite time trial parcours begins with a long stretch of mostly flat roads, on which the riders will be able to hit very high speeds. Then, around 15 kilometers before the finish line, the road kicks upward for the first of the day’s two main climbs. It’s an irregular ascent, but at no point is it overly challenging. The descent that follows, however, is a difficult one. At around the 40 kilometer mark the road kicks upward again for a shorter but steeper climb. Then comes a speedy descent and a flat final few kilometers.
The 2013 route was considerably longer (57.9 kilometers instead of 47.1), but this year’s edition does include a few uphill tests that, while not overly demanding, could make a difference in the day’s outcome.
The Contenders
Defending champion Tony Martin is the heavy favorite here. It would be a surprise if anyone were to take the victory ahead of the German, who is on the hunt for his fourth consecutive title. The late bumps shouldn’t trouble him too much, and he’s an expert bike handler for the downhill stretches on the route. He may be just a bit off his best form right now, but his Vuelta ITT victory was evidence enough that he is in good shape, and that may be all he needs. He was 46 seconds ahead of the runner-up in 2013, and has been dominant once again this year.
Martin’s biggest challenge is likely to come from the aforementioned 2013 runner-up, Bradley Wiggins. Wiggins has been enigmatic on the road this year; he occasionally flashed his brilliant ability (winning chronos in the Tour of California and the Tour of Britain, along with his own National Championship ITT), but on the whole he simply didn’t ride in all that many races in 2014. He appears to be riding well right now, and he should be able to handle the late climbs better than most of the time trialing specialists in Ponferrada. It is harder than ever to predict which races Bradley Wiggins is motivated to contest these days, but with a chance to make a statement in the twilight of his career on the road, I expect him to go full gas here.
Tom Dumoulin of the Netherlands racked up an amazing string of 2nd place finishes this year. He’s one of the world’s best in the time trial, but he unfortuantely had a great deal of scheduling overlap with the rainbow jersey wearer in 2014, and that led to countless runner-up rides. Still, he is in good shape right now and he will be eager for one last shot at victory over Tony Martin. This a nice enough parcours for Dumoulin, who is a capable climber. He has an excellent opportunity to get onto the podium, especially with last year’s 3rd place finisher Fabian Cancellara skipping the Worlds ITT this year.
Vasil Kiryienka has had some excellent results late this season and he can handle this profile. He may spend most of his time playing second fiddle to Sky’s GC stars, but he’ll be a dangerous outsider here. Adriano Malori of Italy is a massive time trial talent on sharp form, but the final two climbs will make it difficult for him to challenge for victory. Still, expect a strong performance. Rohan Dennis took some time to round into form during the Vuelta but he seems to be getting there now, and this is a nice parcours for him. Tobias Ludviggson is a rider whose talent exceeds his results this season; he has had trouble avoiding misfortune (rain and crashes, specifically) in many of his chronos in 2014, but if he can stay out of trouble he has a lot of power.
Tejay van Garderen, Rasmus Quaade, Alex Dowsett, Kristof Vandewalle, Jesse Sergent, Sylvain Chavanel, Jonathan Castroviejo, and Jan Barta are others on the list of fringe contenders who will hope to be in the mix.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Tony Martin Podium: Bradley Wiggins, Tom Dumoulin Other Top Contenders: Vasil Kiryienka, Tobias Ludviggson, Adriano Malori, Rohan Dennis, Tejay van Garderen, Rasmus Quaade, Kristof Vandewalle
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis during the race, and stay tuned for the Worlds Road Race preview, coming very soon!
The first of the Canadian WorldTour events is in the books, and now it’s on to Montreal. Another urban circuit race, the GP Montreal shares a hilly profile with its sister race in Quebec and, often, many of the same riders who shine in one do well in the other, but there are differences in the parcours, and no one has ever won both races in the same season. Plenty of names stand out as favorites, but the startlist is loaded with talent and the route will make a few different race scenarios possible. In short, the 2014 Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal should be an exciting race, and it won’t be easy to predict the outcome.
The Route
The 12.1 kilometer circuit (17 laps of which will make for a total race distance of 205.7 kilometers) starts along the Avenue du Parc, makes a loop along the slopes of Montreal’s namesake Mount Royal, and then finishes back where it started. There are three uphill sections in each lap. After a short downhill from the starting line, the first and most challenging climb comes almost immediately, the 1.8 kilometer, 8% average gradient Côte Camillien-Houde. Then comes a fast descent, a brief flat section, and the next uphill test, the short but difficult Côte de la Polytechnique, 780 meters at a 6% average but with a steep 11% stretch of 200 meters along the way. After another descent, things even out for a a bit until the final 1100 meters: the riders will make a right turn heading south and shoot downhill on the Avenue du Parc, and then they will make a 180 degree turn to head back up the Avenue in the other direction towards the line. That final run-in is a 560 meter, 4% climb.
The Montreal circuit is, on the whole, harder than that of the GP Quebec. The Côte Camillien-Houde, crested 17 times, will put the heavier riders into serious difficulty and will likely launch attacks that will be a lot harder to marshal than those that were swallowed up without ever being much of a real threat in Quebec. The finish in Montreal, however, is a lot easier, meaning that sprinting legs will be important if a small group of riders come to the finish together; alternatively, a strong enough solo artist could stay clear after an attack on the circuit’s difficult early slopes.
The Contenders
A one-day race parcours favoring strong climbers with explosive finishes would bring Simon Gerrans to mind even if he hadn’t just taken the win in Quebec. With the form he just showed, he’ll be a top favorite for more success here. His rivals will be watching him closely, but Gerrans told VeloHuman today that he doesn’t feel any pressure coming in as a favorite after his win, and that instead the pressure is on the other teams to get something of the race. He also said that he feels the Montreal parcours might suit OGE even better than Quebec did.
Simon Gerrans on the Montreal parcours and the riders his team will be keeping an eye on
Gerrans has the uphill ability to get over the climbs and the sprint to beat almost anyone in the race. The biggest challenge for OGE will be the hard-to-control profile; Gerrans is capable of getting into moves or even making them on his own, but lately he has preferrred holding out for the sprint in these sorts of races, and Orica-GreenEdge will have their hands full trying to keep this together if that’s how they decide to play this. They have a very strong team here, though, and hilly profile specialists like Michael Albasini, Jens Keukeleire, Pieter Weening, and Daryl Impey (on top-notch form right now) will be great allies or, potentially, dangerous alternatives.
Rui Costa was unable to get clear of the pack in Quebec and then had to cut his sprint short after Arthur Vichot went down right in front of him. Nevertheless, he was at the front as the race neared its climax. Montreal will give him a better opportunity to get aggressive. Few can launch an escape on a hilly profile as well as Rui Costa, and he has the burst of speed to win a sprint battle if need be. He’s never been outside the Top 10 in his Montreal-racing career, and he should continue to perform at a high level here. This will be an excellent opportunity for Costa to prove his form before his Worlds defense.
Quebec runner-up Tom Dumoulin should also love this attacker-friendly profile. He’s the best soloist in the startlist, and if he can get clear of the bunch, his rivals will have a hard time tracking him down. Teammate Simon Geschke, always handy in the sprints that come after hilly days, is a great alternative for Giant-Shimano.
BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet was hoping for a better result in Quebec, but Montreal will provide him with another chance at success. Van Avermaet told VH before the GP Quebec that he felt that, of the two, it suited him better. However, with the quality of punchy, fast finishers here in Canada, Montreal’s profile, more likely to spring the sort of successful long-range attacks for which Van Avermaet is known, should be good for him as well. He was 4th here last year. Don’t rule out a big ride from teammate Tejay van Garderen either; the American GC rider put in a strong dig on the final climb in Quebec, showing that he’s interested in getting involved in these races.
Bauke Mollema was the best-placed of the GC-style riders in Quebec (landing 10th), and Montreal should suit him better if he and some of the other top climbers can make for a selective race. He also packs a great sprint, and if the ascending specialists can drop the less uphill-inclined, he’ll be a dangerous contender. Sep Vanmarcke, 7th in Quebec, may find Montreal a bit hilly, but he is climbing very well this year and with his Worlds role still undetermined, he will likely be going full gas here.
Garmin-Sharp has a lot of firepower in Canada. Ramunas Navardauskas showed off his ever-widening array of skills with a strong uphill sprint to 3rd. The Montreal profile will really put him to the test, but Garmin-Sharp won’t panic if he struggles on the final few climbs: Tom-Jelte Slagter looked good in Quebec, finishing 11th, and this is an excellent race for him. Fabian Wegmann has put in strong performances here in the past as well.
Alexander Kristoff will be in for a real battle to stick with the pack if the pace is high in the final few trips up the Côte Camillien-Houde. If this does come down to a sprint, and if he has made it to the line with the lead group, he’ll have an excellent opportunity to pick up the win, as the finish is less challenging than the one in Quebec, where he only managed 21st place. Simon Spilak will again be a good second.
OPQS’s Gianni Meersman has great climbing legs (for a sprinter) and may be a bit more likely than Kristoff to stick with the peloton on the steep stuff. Having just taken 6th in Quebec, he’s showing good form right now, and he’ll be a top favorite if he’s there for a sprint. The team has options, though, with Jan Bakelants (10th in 2013) very well-suited to this sort of parcours, and with Zdenek Stybar, Julian Alaphillipe, and Matteo Trentin here as well, OPQS will undoubtedly be involved in the action.
Astana is another team bringing a versatile fast finisher and several puncheurs and climbers to be ready for any race scenario. Francesco Gavazzi will have a chance to be in the mix in a bunch sprint. Enrico Gasparotto sometimes disappears in races that would look to suit him, but having landed 8th in Quebec he looks good enough to contend on a Montreal parcours that should be very good for him. Jakob Fuglsang and Borut Bozic are other strong riders for the team.
Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin was 10th here in 2012, and he looked good in Quebec. Lotto has several great talents for this profile, with Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens here too. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Matti Breschel could get involved if a larger group comes to the line together, while Michael Rogers can never be counted out in a race with plenty of opportunities for long-range attacks. Movistar has speedy JJ Lobato, JJ Rojas, and Fran Ventoso, but all-rounder Jesus Herrada also looks strong at the moment. AG2R’s climber-heavy squad should appreciate the tougher uphill challenges in Montreal; Jean-Christophe Peraud, Romain Bardet, and Christophe Riblon will have their chances to try to get away on the slopes. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski and Frank Schleck may be thinking the same thing. Team Sky was unable to make anything out of Quebec, with Geraint Thomas struggling on the climbs, but this profile doesn’t look bad for Thomas (if Friday’s performance was just a bad day) and Edvald Boasson Hagen, and Chris Sutton looks to be strong right now as well. Cannondale’s trio of Davide Formolo, Marco Marcato, and Moreno Moser showed form in Quebec, with the first two finishing in the Top 20, and the third spending a lot of time in the morning breakaway. Europcar has Bryan Coquard for a possible sprint, and punchy Cyril Gautier and Yukiya Arashiro to animate the climbs. Team Canada will likely back Ryan Anderson, who has shown good form in his past few races.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Simon Gerrans Podium: Tom Dumoulin, Rui Costa Other Top Contenders: Bauke Mollema, Greg Van Avermaet, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Gianni Meersman, Tony Gallopin, Alexander Kristoff, Ramunas Navardauskas
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live coverage of the GP Montreal, and check back after the finish for post-race analysis!
